Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Gold for Tuesday, April 23

EUR/USD: euro has reached new local highsThe EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing a bullish momentum in the short and medium term, updating the local highs reached on April 10. At the moment, the instrument is testing the 1.0820 level, while investors are waiting for the publication of today's macroeconomic data.Yesterday, inflation data for April were published in Germany: the consumer price index rose from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.2% on an annual basis, while the harmonized index amounted to 0.6% on a monthly basis and increased from 2.3% to 2.4% on an annual basis. Statistics on economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) supported the euro: the index for the eurozone rose from 43.9 points to 47.0 points, exceeding forecasts at 46.1 points, and the indicator for Germany rose from 42.9 points to 47.1 points with expectations of 44.9 points. The index of current business conditions in Germany also showed positive dynamics, rising from -79.2 points to -72.3 points. In general, the level of business sentiment has reached a two-year high, which allows experts to hope for an acceleration in the pace of economic recovery in the region.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/JPY: IMF recommended the Bank of Japan to continue adjusting ratesThe US currency is losing ground in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting after recent growth, which led to an update of local highs from May 1. Investors have reduced their long positions to hedge risks ahead of the publication of US inflation data today at 14:30 (GMT+2).The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that the Bank of Japan continue to gradually tighten monetary policy and adjust interest rates. The IMF stressed that the purchase of government bonds can help mitigate sharp changes in yields that could undermine macro-financial stability during this important transition period. In addition, the fund's experts left forecasts for Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) at 0.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. They also expect consumption to recover in the second half of 2024 and 2025, thanks to the agreed wage increases achieved in March.On Thursday at 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan's GDP data for the first quarter will be published, with an expected decrease from 0.1% to -0.3% on a quarterly basis and from 0.4% to -1.5% on an annual basis. It is also expected that the March statistics on industrial production will show an increase from -0.6% to 3.8%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.00, 157.50, 157.98.Support levels: 156.00, 155.50, 155.00, 154.50.USD/CHF: consolidation before the release of US inflation dataThe US dollar is holding near the 0.9056 level during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" trend that began the day before. The USD/CHF pair is trying to break through the 0.9050 mark downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation. This indicator reflects changes in the level of retail prices for a certain set of goods and services, including food, transportation, utilities and healthcare, and has a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions.Current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual consumer price index from 3.5% to 3.4% by the end of April, while monthly growth will remain at 0.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is likely to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis over the same period. Retail sales data for April will be published at 14:30 (GMT+2), and analysts expect a decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%, while sales excluding the automotive market may fall from 1.1% to 0.2%. Against the background of these expectations, American investors have already estimated the data on the producer price index for April, which showed an increase of 0.5% after the previous decrease of -0.1%, which exceeded the forecast of 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased from 1.8% to 2.2%.Resistance levels: 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935.GBP/USD: labor market strengthened the pound's positionThe British currency shows multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 1.2600 mark and local highs reached on May 3. Yesterday, the pair showed significant growth, despite the predominance of "bears" for a long time.The British currency received support due to strong statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, and employment decreased by 177.0 thousand people, which is better than preliminary forecasts of -215.0 thousand. However, the average wage growth, taking into account bonuses, remained at 5.7% instead of the expected 5.3%, and excluding bonuses amounted to 6.0%. In the first quarter of this year, there was also an improvement in labor productivity: a decrease of -0.3% compared to -0.9% in the previous period. Thus, the employment sector is showing signs of slowing down, which may give the Bank of England grounds for a gradual easing of monetary policy. However, there remain risks of rising consumer prices due to wage adjustments.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2430.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2760.

EUR/USD: Germany's April CPI is in line with analytical forecastsDuring the morning trading session in Asia, the EUR/USD pair showed fluctuating movements, remaining near the 1.0785 level. Investors remain cautious, refraining from active trading until the publication of important economic data from the United States and the eurozone.In April, German inflation was in line with expectations, noting an increase of 0.5% and confirming an annual rate of 2.2%, which is consistent with economists' forecasts. The harmonized consumer price index, adapted to EU standards, showed an acceleration from 2.3% to 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, the Spanish consumer price index may increase from 3.2% to 3.3%. Important data on eurozone GDP for the first quarter are expected on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2), forecasts indicate stability of the indicator at the level of 0.3% quarterly and 0.4% annual growth. The market's attention will also be focused on the indicators of industrial production, which, according to forecasts, may show a decrease of 0.2% in monthly dynamics after the previous growth of 0.8%, and an improvement in the annual index from -6.4% to -1.8%.Resistance levels: 1.0810, 1.0890.Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0660.AUD/USD: Australian authorities predict a decrease in inflation by the yearThe AUD/USD pair is slightly losing ground, stabilizing near the 0.6600 level. Amid the lack of significant news, the market is in a state of expectation, where investors are weighing their steps ahead of key events, especially in the United States, where inflation data for April is expected to be published tomorrow.In Australia, data on the state of the labor market for April will be announced on May 16: analysts predict an increase in employment by 23.7 thousand people, after a decrease of 6.6 thousand in the previous month. At the same time, it is assumed that unemployment will increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. The presentation of the budget plan is also in the focus of investors' attention today. According to recent forecasts, inflation should fall to 3.75% by mid-2024 and to 2.75% by mid-2025, re-entering the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range. However, the authorities said last Sunday that it is expected that the overall inflation rate could reach 2.0-3.0% by the end of this year, while representatives of the RBA believe that the indicator may remain at 3.6% in the first quarter and rise to 3.8% by June. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers stressed that the budget will pay special attention to measures to counter price pressures that have a significant impact on the cost of living of the population.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.Cryptocurrency market overviewLast week, the ETH/USD rate continued to decline, following the general trend of the market, under the influence of both monetary and regulatory factors that put pressure on other key assets. Investors are expressing concern about the possible continuation of high rates by the US Federal Reserve System until the end of the year, despite the slowdown in the labor market. US inflation data for April, which will be published on Wednesday, is expected to show a decrease in the index, but this is unlikely to change the strict position of the regulator.ETH is also under additional pressure from the uncertainty surrounding future decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Soon, on May 23 and 24, the deadline for reviewing applications from VanEck and ARK Invest for the creation of spot funds based on ETH expires, but forecasts regarding a positive result are disappointing. Unlike previous cases of approval of bitcoin ETFs, there is no information about consultations between the regulator and representatives of interested companies, which may lead to a possible postponement or refusal to consider applications for ETH ETFs until the autumn. In addition, there are signs that the American authorities have begun to consider ETH as an unregistered security and are collecting information about the activities of its developers. In this context, the co-founder of Ethereum, Joseph Lubin, pointed out that the SEC had actually reclassified ETH as an illegal asset without notifying the public.Resistance levels: 3125.00, 3281.25, 3437.50.Support levels: 2812.50, 2500.00, 2187.50.Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes. Some support for prices is provided by the anticipation of the publication of the OPEC report, scheduled for today at 13:00 GMT+2. At the same time, many investors refrain from opening new positions, preferring to wait for the US inflation data, which are expected tomorrow at 14:30 at the same time.In the context of the expected OPEC report, market participants hope to find out updated forecasts for oil production volumes. For example, since the beginning of the year, several countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have initiated voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day in order to maintain market stability. Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair expressed Iraq's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, but pointed out difficulties with its implementation, doubting the possibility of extending current production restrictions. Traders also expect information about the situation in the Middle East, which could lead to significant supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. The upcoming OPEC meeting is scheduled for June 1, and according to analysts, there are no changes in production plans. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand in 2024 will reach a record of more than 103 million barrels per day.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.

NZD/USD: the pair checks the 0.6600 level for a possible declineThe NZD/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.6000 level and trying to strengthen the "bearish" trend that emerged at the end of last week. At this stage, investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new positions until the publication of US inflation data, which is expected on Wednesday. It is predicted that core inflation for April may show a decrease to 3.6% per annum from the previous 3.8% and to 0.3% monthly from 0.4%. Retail sales statistics will also be released, which is important for assessing domestic consumption, which is a key element of inflation risks. Total sales are expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4%, while the figure excluding cars will decrease from 1.1% to 0.2%.Earlier this week, support for the NZD/USD pair came from recently released data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand showed an increase in April, increasing from 46.8 to 48.9 points. Although successive interest rate increases since October 2021 have led to a slowdown in economic activity, price pressures are likely to remain stable due to high levels of migration, which exceeded forecasts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Also, data from China released over the weekend showed an acceleration in the consumer price index in April from 0.1% to 0.3% year-on-year and an improvement from -1.0% to 0.1% month-on-month. Although the producer price index remained in negative territory, its decline slowed from -2.8% to -2.5%. Additionally, investors' attention was drawn to a slight decrease in the index of activity in the service sector from Business NZ in April from 47.2 to 47.1 points. RBNZ's inflation expectations for the second quarter were adjusted from 2.5% to 2.33%, which may contribute to RBNZ's softer monetary policy in the near future.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: the expectation of sideways dynamics in the near futureIn the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair is actively testing the 1.3680 level, aiming to overcome it upwards. Meanwhile, market activity remains at a moderate level, as participants from the United States expect new catalysts for price changes during the week.On the other hand, Canadian traders are carefully studying employment data: April figures indicate an increase in the number of employed by 90.4 thousand, which significantly exceeds the previous value of -2.2 thousand and analysts' expectations of 18.0 thousand. The average hourly wage in the country decreased from 5.0% to 4.8%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.1%, despite forecasts of its increase to 6.2%.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is experiencing a correction, retreating from the peak values on April 22, which were updated last week. Currently, gold is trying to overcome the support level of $ 2350.00 in anticipation of new factors that may affect the price movement.The gold market continues its upward trend, despite a decrease in net speculative positions, according to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Over the past week, the volume of net speculative positions decreased to 199.6 thousand from 204.2 thousand, reflecting a decrease in investor activity in anticipation of new catalysts in the market. The positions of the bulls, backed by real assets, amounted to 189,194 thousand against 26,062 thousand for the bears. Sellers increased their positions by 1,028 thousand, while buyers reduced them by 2,979 thousand amid expectations of new movements in gold.Resistance levels: 2378.39, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing a correction, holding above the $82.00 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is affecting the situation: Hamas representatives have expressed readiness for a ceasefire, and the Houthis have reduced the number of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced the country's intention to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts, which caused a violent reaction. However, the next day, his deputy, Basim Mohammed Khudair, clarified that the problem lies in the difficulty of meeting the current limits, which have a negative impact on the Iraqi economy. The question of Iraq's position on the future OPEC+ agreement remains open, but it is already clear that many participants are ready to increase production, which may have an impact on the market.Resistance levels: 83.20, 86.10.Support levels: 81.50, 78.70.

EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend started earlierThe EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing the weak "bearish" trend laid down a day earlier: the exchange rate is experiencing the level of 1.0740 on a downward breakdown, while the market is waiting for new catalysts to change quotes.Traders are analyzing data on industrial production in Germany for March: the index fell by 0.4% month-on-month after rising by 1.7% a month earlier, while forecasts were at the level of -0.6%. The annual decline slowed from -5.3% to -3.3%. In addition, yesterday's data showed a decrease in production orders by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year after a decrease of -0.8% and -8.8%, respectively. This confirms that the German economic recovery is slower than expected. However, exports increased by 0.9% in March after a decrease of -1.6% a month earlier, exceeding the forecast of 0.4%, and imports slowed from 3.0% to 0.3% against the expected -1.0%, which led to a trade surplus of 22.3 billion euros. The euro received additional support from retail sales statistics in the eurozone, which improved by 0.8% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year in March, significantly exceeding previous figures of -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively.Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0842.Support levels: 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0630.GBP/USD: British construction sector is showing a noticeable recovery in business activityThe GBP/USD pair is checking the 1.2480 level for the possibility of a downward breakout, reinforcing the "bearish" trend set a day earlier, against the background of the lack of supportive macroeconomic data from the United States and Great Britain.The pound's rise was partly due to improved performance in the UK construction sector, where the business activity index for April showed an increase from 50.2 to 53.0 points, exceeding the forecast of 50.4 points. The Halifax house price index rose 0.1% after falling 0.9% a month earlier, which was below analysts' expectations of 0.2%. The housing market is approaching stabilization in anticipation of a possible reduction in interest rates, which may support the construction industry. Meanwhile, data from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) for April showed a decrease in retail sales by 4.4% against the forecast 1.6%, reflecting household caution in spending, which may restrain economic growth.At the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged, with the interest rate at 5.25%. Perhaps the accompanying statement from the regulator will provide an assessment of the current state and prospects of the British economy, as well as hints on possible future actions.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.USD/JPY: the currency pair is forming a new uptrendThe USD/JPY pair is holding in a horizontal trend at 155.14, where the US dollar continues to gain strength, which began at the beginning of the week, while the yen retreats, having lost some of its positions.Apparently, the Bank of Japan carried out a currency intervention estimated by experts at about $ 60 billion, although there was no official confirmation of such actions. Effective prevention of further weakening of the yen requires active market interventions, given the weakness of domestic economic indicators and the significant interest rate gap between Japanese and American regulators exceeding 5%. In April, the index of business activity in the Japanese services sector reached 54.3 points, which is worse than analysts' expectations of 54.6 points, but better than the previous indicator of 54.1 points, but this was not enough to support the yen last week.Resistance levels: 156.00, 158.30.Support levels: 154.30, 151.80.Crude Oil market overviewThe prices of American WTI oil are under pressure, testing the level of 77.70 for a possible break down. Investors are focusing on the balance between the supply and demand of hydrocarbons, as well as the geopolitical situation.Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that an increase in production volumes within OPEC+ is not currently being considered, but circumstances may change due to external factors. While the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, it is believed that it may return to normal after the end of Israeli military operations in Rafah.In addition, recent data on the dynamics of oil reserves in the United States provided support for oil prices. A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 1.43 million barrels after a previous increase of 4.906 million barrels. It is expected that today at 16:30 GMT+2 the Energy Information Administration (EIA) The United States will publish its final statistics, analysts predict a decrease in inventories by 1.430 million barrels after a correction of 7.265 million barrels in the previous period.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.

NZD/USD: the currency pair is stable at April peaksThe NZD/USD pair is holding near the 0.6010 level and local highs reached on April 10 and updated last week. The weakening of the US dollar on Friday was caused by data on the labor market, which increased pressure on the US Federal Reserve System on the issue of possible rate cuts in the foreseeable future.In particular, the creation of new jobs in the United States outside the agricultural sector amounted to only 175,000, which is significantly lower than the expected 243,000 and the previous value of 315,000. The growth of the average hourly wage slowed from 0.3% to 0.2% per month and from 4.1% to 3.9% per annum. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 3.9%. A sharp decrease in the ISM business activity index in the service sector attracted special attention from investors — from 51.4 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 52.0 points. These results reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, which, according to analysts, will amount to 50 basis points and will be implemented twice this year. Earlier, Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's board, said that inflation is likely to continue to decline despite maintaining current rates, and confirmed her readiness to tighten monetary policy if consumer prices remain above 2.0% or continue to rise.The day before, data on the index of business activity in the Chinese services sector were also published: the index slightly decreased from 52.7 to 52.5 points, which continues to be considered a positive signal. In New Zealand, the ANZ commodity price index, an early indicator of export price inflation, was presented, which showed an increase of 0.5% after a decrease of 1.3% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/JPY: April business activity in the Japanese services sector showed a declineThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing moderate growth, continuing yesterday's uptrend: the currency instrument is trying to overcome the level of 154.50. Analysts are now actively looking for new catalysts for currency movement and analyzing the factors of the unexpected strengthening of the yen last week. Most experts assume that the Bank of Japan could have conducted currency interventions, clearly warning about the risks of speculative operations and pointing to the influence of traders on the weakening of the national currency. Despite the lack of official confirmation from the regulator, the market analyzes only indirect signs. Experts estimate that funds worth about $ 59 billion could be used to support the yen exchange rate, and in the near future the regulator may seek to keep the US dollar exchange rate in the range of 150.00–155.00.Today's weakening of the yen is supported by macroeconomic statistics from Japan: the April index of business activity in the services sector, provided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which tracks the cost of services purchased by companies in the main service sectors (excluding manufacturing) and serves as a harbinger of the Tankan index, fell from 54.6 to 54.3 points, despite neutral expectations.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.00, 155.50, 156.00.Support levels: 154.00, 153.50, 153.00, 152.50.Gold market overviewGold trading shows mixed dynamics, maintaining around the level of 2320.00. Investors are waiting for new growth incentives, while gold is undergoing a minor technical correction and updating the minimum values since April 5 last week.Gold is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attempts to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas appear to have failed, leading to extensive new Israeli military operations in Rafah. Demand for the precious metal is also increasing in anticipation of a possible rate cut by the world's largest central banks. Among the contenders for the first reduction is the European Central Bank, from which markets expect changes in monetary policy at the upcoming June meeting.Resistance levels: 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00.Support levels: 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52.Oil market overviewPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are experiencing an upward correction, exceeding $ 83.00 per barrel amid the lack of significant positive economic data.Investors' attention was attracted by an announcement from representatives of Shell Plc., a major global producer of hydrocarbons, about its intention to completely exit the South African market after more than a century of presence. According to a press release published on the Johannesburg stock Exchange, the company plans to reorganize its refining portfolio and sell its stake in Shell Downstream SA. It also became known that 700 filling stations under the management of the corporation will be sold, which will be the final stage after the closure of the last processing plant in 2022.According to Reuters, OPEC+ countries may decide to extend the current production reduction agreement for another three months. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for June 1. At the moment, oil prices are close to last year's levels, and despite an increase in production in the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, which compensates for OPEC+ measures, the cartel countries will continue to reduce production until global demand fully recovers.Resistance levels: 84.60, 87.90.Support levels: 82.50, 79.40.

EUR/USD: eurozone reported an increase in GDP for Q1In early trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate is experiencing an adjustment, being at the level of 1.0655, although economic statistics from the European Union show positive trends.On the eve of the meeting, many EU states presented results on gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. France showed an improvement of 0.2%, reaching 1.1% year-on-year, which is higher than the previous 0.8%. Spain recorded a 0.7% quarterly GDP growth and an increase from 2.1% to 2.4% per annum, while in Italy the quarterly growth was 0.3%, although the annual rate decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%. The German economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous 0.5% decline, but the annual rate remained negative at -0.2%. As a result, eurozone GDP improved from -0.1% to 0.3% quarterly and from 0.1% to 0.4% per annum. These data may contribute to the decision of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates. In this context, the head of the Dutch Central Bank, Claes Noth, stressed the continuation of the disinflation process, making the upcoming rate cut in June likely, but called for caution in the further steps of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.0710, 1.0810.Support levels: 1.0620, 1.0500.GBP/USD: UK Mortgage Loan record in 18 monthsThe GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.2470 and continues to decline amid unfavorable economic data from the UK.April figures from Nationwide Building Society showed a decrease in the housing price index by 0.4% for the month, which is worse than the predicted 0.2% and the previous value of -0.2%. The annual index also fell to 0.6%, against the expected 1.2% and the previous 1.6%. This trend contributes to an overall slowdown in inflation, which now stands at 3.2% compared to the previous figure of 3.4%. This gives the Bank of England the opportunity to reduce interest rates more actively, ahead of market expectations. In addition, in March, the number of approved mortgage loans reached 61.33 thousand, updating an 18-month record. The growth in consumer lending amounted to 1.577 million pounds compared with 1.429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds against the projected 1,700 million.Resistance levels: 1.2525, 1.2697, 1.2875.Support levels: 1.2322, 1.2058.USD/JPY: exchange rate forms a global wave of appreciationThe USD/JPY pair fluctuates horizontally near the 157.82 mark, while the yen continues its decline, reaching a new peak of 160.00 on Monday, followed by a sharp rise in the currency. A significant correction followed after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida avoided answering questions about potential currency interventions at a press conference. Despite this, taking into account trading volumes, it can be assumed that the Bank of Japan took measures to influence the market, which should be confirmed by the report on the current balance of operations of the regulator, which will be published next week.The yen has been under pressure for a long time, not finding support in macroeconomic data: retail sales growth slowed from 4.7% to 1.2% in March, falling short of the projected 2.5%, which was the result of the increasing impact of inflation on household finances. According to a report by the Bank of Japan, prices for services continue to rise, but a significant increase in wages offered by companies may increase citizens' incomes this year and help stabilize the consumer price index at the target 2.0%. It should be noted that April showed an improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector to 49.6 points from 48.2 points, but this did not bring significant support to the yen.Support levels: 157.00, 154.50.Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.20.Oil market analysisBrent crude oil prices have stabilized at $85 per barrel.Economic data from China are supporting oil prices: in the first quarter, the country increased oil imports by 0.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching 137.36 million tons. At the same time, oil production in China increased by 2.3% to 53.48 million tons, refuting assumptions about a significant reduction in energy demand from the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year, which had a positive impact on market prices.However, the current local trend is under pressure due to the growth of strategic hydrocarbon reserves in the United States. According to information from the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 4,906 million barrels over the past week, which contradicts analysts' expectations of a reduction of 1,500 million barrels. A new report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected, where analysts predict an adjustment of -2.300 million barrels after the previous drop of -6.368 million, raising questions against the background of API data.Resistance levels: 86.50, 89.50.Support levels: 84.70, 81.50.

EUR/USD: negative factors support the downtrendThe EUR/USD currency pair follows a descending channel: the middle of the month showed that the price reached the minimum level of the channel at 1.0600, followed by a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1.0725, where the quotes are now located.A corrective increase does not change the overall fundamental mood of the development of events, contributing to the support of a long-term downward trend. The market anticipates a difference in the approaches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FRS) to monetary policy, which strengthens the dollar's position against the euro. The ECB is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as June, while the Fed will postpone these measures until at least September. Recent economic reports confirm the ECB's intentions to ease policy: the consumer price index for April maintained the level of 2.4% per annum, core inflation fell to 2.7%, falling short of the projected 2.6%. Eurozone GDP in the first quarter also showed better results than expected, confirming the economic recovery and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may lead to a reduction in interest rates soon.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: monetary policy strengthens the US dollarOver the past two months, the GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend: last week was marked by the achievement of the minimum value of this channel, followed by an upward correction to the level of 1.2550. The current rise in the value of the pound is seen as only a short-term phenomenon and is unlikely to change the general vector of movement of the currency pair, as monetary policy continues to strengthen the US dollar. Experts expect that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as June or August, despite the unexpected increase in inflation in March to 3.2%, against the projected 3.1%. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve may postpone easing its policy until the autumn. In the worst-case scenario, given the rise in inflation, the American financial regulator may not even reduce the cost of borrowing this year or decide to raise rates.In March, 61.33 thousand mortgages were approved in the UK, which was a record for the last 18 months. The volume of consumer lending increased to 1,577 million pounds compared with 1,429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds, exceeding forecasts by 100,000 pounds. Despite these data confirming the recovery of the construction sector, the British currency did not receive support due to the cautious position of traders before the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that if the US regulator keeps interest rates unchanged, confirming the postponement of monetary policy adjustments until the autumn, the GBP/USD pair may experience additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2329, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/CHF: decline of important Swiss economic indicators in AprilThe USD/CHF currency pair is hovering around 0.9126, intending to test resistance at 0.9142 due to the weakening of the Swiss franc against the background of disappointing economic data.Today's report by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF, covering 12 key indicators, including consumer confidence, manufacturing, new orders and the real estate market, pointed to the economic outlook for the next six months. The indicator value for April was 101.8, being lower than the expected 102.1 points, while the previous estimate was adjusted from 101.5 to 101.4 points. Despite this, the nominal wages index increased by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to last year. In the context of 2.1% inflation, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the salary index fell to 96.9 points, which is below the stability threshold of 100 points. In June, the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 1.50%, which in the long term may weaken the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.NZD/USD: the exchange rate falls to 0.5928 following negative data from New ZealandFollowing disappointing economic indicators from New Zealand, the NZD/USD exchange rate is showing a decline, aiming for a reference point at 0.5928.The April business confidence index, prepared by the ANZ group from Australia and New Zealand, showed a value of 14.9 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 24.0 points and the previous result of 22.9 points. This indicates that business conditions in the country are deteriorating, causing increased sales of the New Zealand dollar and supporting the trend towards its depreciation. Despite the ongoing downward trend, the recent foreign trade report provided temporary support to the exchange rate: March exports increased to NZ$6.50 billion compared to NZ$5.79 billion a month earlier, while import growth stopped at NZ$5.91 billion. This made it possible to achieve a trade surplus again, which amounted to NZ$ 588.0 million.Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5928, 0.5860.

AUD/USD: US dollar is declining against the Australian dollarDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair showed growth, reaching 0.6585, thanks to strong macroeconomic support from Australia.The Australian economy has shown significant changes in the structure of prices for exports and imports. In the first quarter of this year, export prices decreased by 2.1%, and on an annual basis - by 8.3%, largely due to a decrease in prices for crude fertilizers and minerals by 58.1%, as well as metals and natural gas by 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Import prices fell by 1.8% quarterly and by 0.7% over the year, with the largest drop in prices for oil and petroleum products (-6.4%), electrical equipment (-4.9%) and pharmaceutical products (-3.5%).On the other hand, the US dollar continues its downward trajectory, being at the level of 105.300 on the USDX index. The latest report on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. Incomes and expenditures of the population also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. However, recent data from the University of Michigan indicate a decline in consumer optimism, with the expectations index falling to 76.0 and the consumer sentiment index to 77.2. These factors may put pressure on the US currency and support further AUD/USD growth ahead of new economic data and policy decisions.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6720.USD/CAD: pair is losing ground, leaving the top of the channel 1.3850–1.3600In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a correction, stabilizing near the level of 1.3641. The latest statistics of the country's labor market have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to the latest data, in February there was an increase in the number of salaries to 17.7 thousand, which, however, is less than the January increase of 35.7 thousand. Annual figures also show steady growth: the total number of employees hired increased by 154.7 thousand or 0.9%. In addition, the number of vacancies increased to 656.7 thousand, which is 21.8 thousand or 3.4% more than in the previous period. These data highlight the strengthening of the Canadian labor market, which can play a key role in the country's further monetary policy and have an impact on the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3820.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3470.USD/CHF: currency pair reaches the top of SeptemberDuring trading, the USD/CHF pair settled at 0.9109, experiencing difficulties with increasing dynamics due to the discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics and analysts' expectations.The latest wage data in Switzerland showed a moderate increase in nominal wages by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to the previous year. In the context of current inflation at 2.1%, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the real wage index dropped to 96.9 points, not reaching the stability threshold of 100.0 points. These indicators highlight the difficulties faced by the Swiss economy in the face of rising prices and put pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency paired with the US dollar.Support levels: 0.9050, 0.8950.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9240.Oil market analysisLast week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed an uptrend, trying to gain a foothold above the 87.50 price level, which corresponds to the fourth Murray mark [4/8]. Both positive economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price increase.According to the latest April figures, the composite index of business activity in the eurozone rose to 51.4 points, which, according to analysts, indicates the likelihood of continued economic growth and Germany's exit from recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter, falling below expectations, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 6.368 million barrels. These factors indicate a possible increase in global oil demand and support price growth.However, a possible settlement of the conflict between Israel and Hamas during negotiations in Cairo, with the participation of the United States, may reduce geopolitical tensions and, consequently, pressure on oil prices. A successful agreement can reduce the risks of supply interruption by influencing price dynamics. An additional impact on the market may be caused by the Federal Reserve postponing the timing of monetary policy easing until the end of the year, which may become known at the upcoming meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 88.55, 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 85.70, 81.25.