Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on May 2, 2024Jerome Powell failed to create panic in forex currency trading. And it is unlikely that he aspired to it. For the S&P 500 and EURUSD, the Fed chairman's speech was a positive factor, as it did not present any surprises. However, the bad thing is that the bar for lowering the federal funds rate remains high, although not as high as for raising it. The Federal Reserve intends to act based on new data, which forces investors to pay great attention to the April statistics on the American labor market.Market participants breathed a sigh of relief when Jerome Powell stated that he saw no reason to resume the cycle of monetary restriction. The S&P 500 and EURUSD immediately went up, and US Treasury yields declined. This is good news for risky assets, but not for the dollar. Raising rates requires convincing evidence that current policies are failing to contain inflation.The American economy is not particularly stressed by high rates yet. However, financial conditions depend quite heavily on inflation data, which is of concern to the Fed. According to Jerome Powell, the Central Bank has not finished its work yet, but high PCE figures are already in the past.Initially, the reaction of the markets to the results of the FOMC meeting was a relief. The market expected the Fed to take a tougher stance. However, Jerome Powell seems to think that the current acceleration in inflation is temporary. He cannot say exactly when the federal funds rate will be lowered, although in the futures market the probability of the beginning of a cycle of monetary expansion in September exceeded 50%. This gave additional support to EURUSD.The Fed, backed by a strong economy, can keep rates at a high plateau for a long time, while other Central banks are ready to reduce them. Of the 56 Bloomberg regulators monitored, 5 cut rates in April. The ECB is planning a reduction in June, and later the Bank of England. This creates a solid foundation for the US dollar. However, the future fate of the greenback will depend on macroeconomic data.In this context, the statistics on employment in the United States will give an important clue. Forecasts by Bloomberg experts suggest that employment will grow by 243 thousand in April, which is a very good indicator. Unemployment is likely to remain at 3.8%. Interestingly, according to Jerome Powell, the Fed is ready to cut rates with a significant increase in unemployment. This underscores the importance of labor market statistics for the Fed, as they help determine the prospects for inflation and the economy.Upcoming statistics on the US labor market may cause the EURUSD to slow down in the range of 1.07-1.072. We do not practice forex trading based on news and will remain outside the market.EUR/USD Technical analysis for EUR/USDOn Wednesday, EUR/USD adjusted upwards and reached resistance 1.0741 - 1.0733. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a short-term downtrend. Near zone, we will consider entering short positions with a target at yesterday's minimum. If the pair consolidates below the extreme, then we expect the downward trend to fall towards the 1.0561 - 1.0544 zone.The trend boundary is the 1.0750 level. If EUR/USD breaks through this level and gains a foothold higher, then in the short term, the trend direction will change to an upward one. In this case, we will look for an entry into purchases with a target at the upper boundary of the 1.0878 - 1.0853 ...
EUR/USD: eurozone reported an increase in GDP for Q1In early trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate is experiencing an adjustment, being at the level of 1.0655, although economic statistics from the European Union show positive trends.On the eve of the meeting, many EU states presented results on gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. France showed an improvement of 0.2%, reaching 1.1% year-on-year, which is higher than the previous 0.8%. Spain recorded a 0.7% quarterly GDP growth and an increase from 2.1% to 2.4% per annum, while in Italy the quarterly growth was 0.3%, although the annual rate decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%. The German economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous 0.5% decline, but the annual rate remained negative at -0.2%. As a result, eurozone GDP improved from -0.1% to 0.3% quarterly and from 0.1% to 0.4% per annum. These data may contribute to the decision of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates. In this context, the head of the Dutch Central Bank, Claes Noth, stressed the continuation of the disinflation process, making the upcoming rate cut in June likely, but called for caution in the further steps of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.0710, 1.0810.Support levels: 1.0620, 1.0500.GBP/USD: UK Mortgage Loan record in 18 monthsThe GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.2470 and continues to decline amid unfavorable economic data from the UK.April figures from Nationwide Building Society showed a decrease in the housing price index by 0.4% for the month, which is worse than the predicted 0.2% and the previous value of -0.2%. The annual index also fell to 0.6%, against the expected 1.2% and the previous 1.6%. This trend contributes to an overall slowdown in inflation, which now stands at 3.2% compared to the previous figure of 3.4%. This gives the Bank of England the opportunity to reduce interest rates more actively, ahead of market expectations. In addition, in March, the number of approved mortgage loans reached 61.33 thousand, updating an 18-month record. The growth in consumer lending amounted to 1.577 million pounds compared with 1.429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds against the projected 1,700 million.Resistance levels: 1.2525, 1.2697, 1.2875.Support levels: 1.2322, 1.2058.USD/JPY: exchange rate forms a global wave of appreciationThe USD/JPY pair fluctuates horizontally near the 157.82 mark, while the yen continues its decline, reaching a new peak of 160.00 on Monday, followed by a sharp rise in the currency. A significant correction followed after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida avoided answering questions about potential currency interventions at a press conference. Despite this, taking into account trading volumes, it can be assumed that the Bank of Japan took measures to influence the market, which should be confirmed by the report on the current balance of operations of the regulator, which will be published next week.The yen has been under pressure for a long time, not finding support in macroeconomic data: retail sales growth slowed from 4.7% to 1.2% in March, falling short of the projected 2.5%, which was the result of the increasing impact of inflation on household finances. According to a report by the Bank of Japan, prices for services continue to rise, but a significant increase in wages offered by companies may increase citizens' incomes this year and help stabilize the consumer price index at the target 2.0%. It should be noted that April showed an improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector to 49.6 points from 48.2 points, but this did not bring significant support to the yen.Support levels: 157.00, 154.50.Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.20.Oil market analysisBrent crude oil prices have stabilized at $85 per barrel.Economic data from China are supporting oil prices: in the first quarter, the country increased oil imports by 0.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching 137.36 million tons. At the same time, oil production in China increased by 2.3% to 53.48 million tons, refuting assumptions about a significant reduction in energy demand from the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year, which had a positive impact on market prices.However, the current local trend is under pressure due to the growth of strategic hydrocarbon reserves in the United States. According to information from the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 4,906 million barrels over the past week, which contradicts analysts' expectations of a reduction of 1,500 million barrels. A new report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected, where analysts predict an adjustment of -2.300 million barrels after the previous drop of -6.368 million, raising questions against the background of API data.Resistance levels: 86.50, 89.50.Support levels: 84.70, ...
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on May 1, 2024An ancient Chinese proverb says: "Don't do anything, and everything will be done." This principle also applies to the Fed, which is ready to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row. However, forex currency trading requires a revival. Options show that investors are expecting the strongest S&P 500 move since May 2023. If so, then EURUSD will not remain indifferent to the decision of the Federal Reserve.The point is to change the position of the FOMC. In December, the Fed made a sharp turn, opening the door for 6-7 acts of monetary expansion. Jerome Powell prepared markets for a possible rate cut throughout the first quarter, despite the strengthening economy. However, in April, his rhetoric changed. He said that the latest data did not confirm a decrease in inflation to the target level of 2%, and the fight against it would take longer than the regulator expected.Most likely, at a press conference on May 1, the chairman of the Federal Reserve will confirm his opinion. But why are the markets so tense? It's all about changing the Fed's views. Investors are not sure whether the Central Bank will stick to the previous mantra of reducing inflation or change its mind and signal that the PCE is approaching 3%. In the first case, there is hope for a reduction in federal funds rates at 1-2 FOMC meetings in 2024, which will help EURUSD. In the second case, we can expect rates to remain at 5.5% with risks of resuming the cycle of monetary restriction. Such a scenario would be "bearish" for both the S&P 500 and EURUSD.After an unexpected acceleration in labor costs from 0.9% to 1.2% in the first quarter, the stock market was under pressure, which was reflected in EURUSD through currency correlation. The S&P 500 closed April with a 4.2% drop, supporting the US dollar.Even despite higher economic growth in the Eurozone and a not particularly rapid slowdown in core inflation, the euro is not receiving support. According to the president of the Bank of France, Francois Villaroy de Galo, the data increased the probability of a price decline to the target level of 2% and increased the chances of a June reduction in deposit rates.In short, even the Fed's inaction can scare the markets. The Fed has probably realized its mistakes, and now it can switch to hawkish rhetoric. Against this background, the risks of EURUSD decline in the direction of 1.06 and 1.05 are increasing. Therefore, we leave the previously formed shorts and prepare to increase short positions with each rise.Technical analysis for EUR/USDEUR/USD is still in a short-term downtrend. The sellers' target is the minimum from April 16. When updating this extreme, the next target is the area 2 1.0561 - 1.0544. We continue to hold short positions opened from the resistance area of 1.0739 - 1.0685.For purchases, you should wait for signs of a trend change. To do this, EUR/USD will need to break through and gain a foothold above the 1.0739 level. In this case, the upper limit of the range 1.0878 - 1.0853 will be the ...
EUR/USD: negative factors support the downtrendThe EUR/USD currency pair follows a descending channel: the middle of the month showed that the price reached the minimum level of the channel at 1.0600, followed by a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1.0725, where the quotes are now located.A corrective increase does not change the overall fundamental mood of the development of events, contributing to the support of a long-term downward trend. The market anticipates a difference in the approaches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FRS) to monetary policy, which strengthens the dollar's position against the euro. The ECB is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as June, while the Fed will postpone these measures until at least September. Recent economic reports confirm the ECB's intentions to ease policy: the consumer price index for April maintained the level of 2.4% per annum, core inflation fell to 2.7%, falling short of the projected 2.6%. Eurozone GDP in the first quarter also showed better results than expected, confirming the economic recovery and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may lead to a reduction in interest rates soon.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: monetary policy strengthens the US dollarOver the past two months, the GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend: last week was marked by the achievement of the minimum value of this channel, followed by an upward correction to the level of 1.2550. The current rise in the value of the pound is seen as only a short-term phenomenon and is unlikely to change the general vector of movement of the currency pair, as monetary policy continues to strengthen the US dollar. Experts expect that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as June or August, despite the unexpected increase in inflation in March to 3.2%, against the projected 3.1%. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve may postpone easing its policy until the autumn. In the worst-case scenario, given the rise in inflation, the American financial regulator may not even reduce the cost of borrowing this year or decide to raise rates.In March, 61.33 thousand mortgages were approved in the UK, which was a record for the last 18 months. The volume of consumer lending increased to 1,577 million pounds compared with 1,429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds, exceeding forecasts by 100,000 pounds. Despite these data confirming the recovery of the construction sector, the British currency did not receive support due to the cautious position of traders before the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that if the US regulator keeps interest rates unchanged, confirming the postponement of monetary policy adjustments until the autumn, the GBP/USD pair may experience additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2329, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/CHF: decline of important Swiss economic indicators in AprilThe USD/CHF currency pair is hovering around 0.9126, intending to test resistance at 0.9142 due to the weakening of the Swiss franc against the background of disappointing economic data.Today's report by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF, covering 12 key indicators, including consumer confidence, manufacturing, new orders and the real estate market, pointed to the economic outlook for the next six months. The indicator value for April was 101.8, being lower than the expected 102.1 points, while the previous estimate was adjusted from 101.5 to 101.4 points. Despite this, the nominal wages index increased by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to last year. In the context of 2.1% inflation, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the salary index fell to 96.9 points, which is below the stability threshold of 100 points. In June, the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 1.50%, which in the long term may weaken the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.NZD/USD: the exchange rate falls to 0.5928 following negative data from New ZealandFollowing disappointing economic indicators from New Zealand, the NZD/USD exchange rate is showing a decline, aiming for a reference point at 0.5928.The April business confidence index, prepared by the ANZ group from Australia and New Zealand, showed a value of 14.9 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 24.0 points and the previous result of 22.9 points. This indicates that business conditions in the country are deteriorating, causing increased sales of the New Zealand dollar and supporting the trend towards its depreciation. Despite the ongoing downward trend, the recent foreign trade report provided temporary support to the exchange rate: March exports increased to NZ$6.50 billion compared to NZ$5.79 billion a month earlier, while import growth stopped at NZ$5.91 billion. This made it possible to achieve a trade surplus again, which amounted to NZ$ 588.0 million.Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5928, ...
ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...