EUR/USD: negative factors support the downtrendThe EUR/USD currency pair follows a descending channel: the middle of the month showed that the price reached the minimum level of the channel at 1.0600, followed by a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1.0725, where the quotes are now located.A corrective increase does not change the overall fundamental mood of the development of events, contributing to the support of a long-term downward trend. The market anticipates a difference in the approaches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FRS) to monetary policy, which strengthens the dollar's position against the euro. The ECB is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as June, while the Fed will postpone these measures until at least September. Recent economic reports confirm the ECB's intentions to ease policy: the consumer price index for April maintained the level of 2.4% per annum, core inflation fell to 2.7%, falling short of the projected 2.6%. Eurozone GDP in the first quarter also showed better results than expected, confirming the economic recovery and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may lead to a reduction in interest rates soon.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: monetary policy strengthens the US dollarOver the past two months, the GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend: last week was marked by the achievement of the minimum value of this channel, followed by an upward correction to the level of 1.2550. The current rise in the value of the pound is seen as only a short-term phenomenon and is unlikely to change the general vector of movement of the currency pair, as monetary policy continues to strengthen the US dollar. Experts expect that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as June or August, despite the unexpected increase in inflation in March to 3.2%, against the projected 3.1%. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve may postpone easing its policy until the autumn. In the worst-case scenario, given the rise in inflation, the American financial regulator may not even reduce the cost of borrowing this year or decide to raise rates.In March, 61.33 thousand mortgages were approved in the UK, which was a record for the last 18 months. The volume of consumer lending increased to 1,577 million pounds compared with 1,429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds, exceeding forecasts by 100,000 pounds. Despite these data confirming the recovery of the construction sector, the British currency did not receive support due to the cautious position of traders before the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that if the US regulator keeps interest rates unchanged, confirming the postponement of monetary policy adjustments until the autumn, the GBP/USD pair may experience additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2329, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/CHF: decline of important Swiss economic indicators in AprilThe USD/CHF currency pair is hovering around 0.9126, intending to test resistance at 0.9142 due to the weakening of the Swiss franc against the background of disappointing economic data.Today's report by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF, covering 12 key indicators, including consumer confidence, manufacturing, new orders and the real estate market, pointed to the economic outlook for the next six months. The indicator value for April was 101.8, being lower than the expected 102.1 points, while the previous estimate was adjusted from 101.5 to 101.4 points. Despite this, the nominal wages index increased by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to last year. In the context of 2.1% inflation, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the salary index fell to 96.9 points, which is below the stability threshold of 100 points. In June, the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 1.50%, which in the long term may weaken the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.NZD/USD: the exchange rate falls to 0.5928 following negative data from New ZealandFollowing disappointing economic indicators from New Zealand, the NZD/USD exchange rate is showing a decline, aiming for a reference point at 0.5928.The April business confidence index, prepared by the ANZ group from Australia and New Zealand, showed a value of 14.9 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 24.0 points and the previous result of 22.9 points. This indicates that business conditions in the country are deteriorating, causing increased sales of the New Zealand dollar and supporting the trend towards its depreciation. Despite the ongoing downward trend, the recent foreign trade report provided temporary support to the exchange rate: March exports increased to NZ$6.50 billion compared to NZ$5.79 billion a month earlier, while import growth stopped at NZ$5.91 billion. This made it possible to achieve a trade surplus again, which amounted to NZ$ 588.0 million.Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5928, ...
AUD/USD: US dollar is declining against the Australian dollarDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair showed growth, reaching 0.6585, thanks to strong macroeconomic support from Australia.The Australian economy has shown significant changes in the structure of prices for exports and imports. In the first quarter of this year, export prices decreased by 2.1%, and on an annual basis - by 8.3%, largely due to a decrease in prices for crude fertilizers and minerals by 58.1%, as well as metals and natural gas by 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Import prices fell by 1.8% quarterly and by 0.7% over the year, with the largest drop in prices for oil and petroleum products (-6.4%), electrical equipment (-4.9%) and pharmaceutical products (-3.5%).On the other hand, the US dollar continues its downward trajectory, being at the level of 105.300 on the USDX index. The latest report on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. Incomes and expenditures of the population also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. However, recent data from the University of Michigan indicate a decline in consumer optimism, with the expectations index falling to 76.0 and the consumer sentiment index to 77.2. These factors may put pressure on the US currency and support further AUD/USD growth ahead of new economic data and policy decisions.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6720.USD/CAD: pair is losing ground, leaving the top of the channel 1.3850–1.3600In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a correction, stabilizing near the level of 1.3641. The latest statistics of the country's labor market have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to the latest data, in February there was an increase in the number of salaries to 17.7 thousand, which, however, is less than the January increase of 35.7 thousand. Annual figures also show steady growth: the total number of employees hired increased by 154.7 thousand or 0.9%. In addition, the number of vacancies increased to 656.7 thousand, which is 21.8 thousand or 3.4% more than in the previous period. These data highlight the strengthening of the Canadian labor market, which can play a key role in the country's further monetary policy and have an impact on the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3820.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3470.USD/CHF: currency pair reaches the top of SeptemberDuring trading, the USD/CHF pair settled at 0.9109, experiencing difficulties with increasing dynamics due to the discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics and analysts' expectations.The latest wage data in Switzerland showed a moderate increase in nominal wages by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to the previous year. In the context of current inflation at 2.1%, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the real wage index dropped to 96.9 points, not reaching the stability threshold of 100.0 points. These indicators highlight the difficulties faced by the Swiss economy in the face of rising prices and put pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency paired with the US dollar.Support levels: 0.9050, 0.8950.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9240.Oil market analysisLast week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed an uptrend, trying to gain a foothold above the 87.50 price level, which corresponds to the fourth Murray mark [4/8]. Both positive economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price increase.According to the latest April figures, the composite index of business activity in the eurozone rose to 51.4 points, which, according to analysts, indicates the likelihood of continued economic growth and Germany's exit from recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter, falling below expectations, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 6.368 million barrels. These factors indicate a possible increase in global oil demand and support price growth.However, a possible settlement of the conflict between Israel and Hamas during negotiations in Cairo, with the participation of the United States, may reduce geopolitical tensions and, consequently, pressure on oil prices. A successful agreement can reduce the risks of supply interruption by influencing price dynamics. An additional impact on the market may be caused by the Federal Reserve postponing the timing of monetary policy easing until the end of the year, which may become known at the upcoming meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 88.55, 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 85.70, ...
EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, ...
EUR/USD: ahead of German March inflationThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to move downwards, continuing the "bearish" trend of the previous day, and approaches the level of 1.0730, updating the minimum values since February 15. With the resumption of active trading after the celebration of Catholic Easter, the dynamics of the market may undergo significant changes.The German consumer price index for March is expected to be presented at 14:00 GMT +2. The monthly inflation rate is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.5%, indicating a slowdown in the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 2.2%, which brings it closer to the target level of the European Central Bank below 2%. The harmonized consumer price index with EU standards is also expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.4%. Investors' attention will also be paid to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone, projected at 45.7 points, with the indicator for Germany remaining at 41.6 points and for the eurozone also at 45.7 points.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0840.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0570.NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar hits lows since NovemberThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing its downward trend in both the short and medium term and updating the lows reached on November 17. At the moment, the price is approaching the level of 0.5945, testing its strength downwards, in anticipation of new catalysts of movement in the market.Among the key events that will attract investors' attention today are data on production orders in the United States for February. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 1.0% after a 3.6% drop in January. The market's attention is also focused on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who can assess the latest business activity data, indicating an unexpected increase in the manufacturing index in March to 50.3 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected a level of 48.4 points.In New Zealand, data on the dairy product price index is expected to be published today at the Global Dairy Trade auction. The last auction showed a 2.8% decline in the index, which had a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar, emphasizing the importance of this sector for the country's economy.Resistance levels: 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885, 0.5858.GBP/USD: the probability of continued price decline remainsThe GBP/USD currency pair continues to show negative dynamics during the fourth week, being at the level of 1.2560.Today's trading session was marked by a partial recovery of the lost positions of the pound after the release of encouraging statistics from the UK. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed an increase from 47.5 to 50.3 points, reaching the growth zone for the first time since July last year. According to Nationwide Building Society, March was the month of a 1.6% increase in home values, indicating a revival in the real estate market. The report by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) also noted a 1.3% rise in prices in leading retail chains, well below the expected 2.0%. Such signs of economic recovery, combined with the dampening of inflationary pressures, may accelerate the process of adjusting monetary policy by the Bank of England, with an increased likelihood of an interest rate cut as early as May, ahead of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System. This creates long-term prerequisites for maintaining pressure on the exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.USD/CHF: US dollar retains the advantageIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and multidirectional macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland, the USD/CHF currency pair showed a corrective movement, remaining at 0.9063.Retail sales in Switzerland for February, seasonally adjusted, showed a decrease of 0.2%. In particular, sales of food, beverages and tobacco products fell by 0.4%, while the non-food sector stagnated. In addition, it is expected that the business activity index from procure.ch Reflecting the mood among purchasing managers and serving as an important indicator of economic expectations, it may rise from 44.0 to 45.0 points, which is unlikely to support the Swiss franc in this trading dynamic.Resistance levels: 0.9090, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.9010, ...