"Reliable Swiss" all in holes: waiting for Credit Suisse bankruptcy?

"History repeats itself" is a well-known expression, which is based on the hypothesis that the development of society is a cycle of certain events and phenomena, and that history, like economics, is characterized by cyclicity. Considering that history does not only record the heyday of empires, and that the cycle of the economy always goes through crises, it becomes uncomfortable when the symptoms of past economic recessions begin to manifest themselves in modern times.The year 2022, a critical situation for Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world and the second largest bank in Switzerland. All analysts agree that if it goes bankrupt, the consequences will be similar to those of the bankruptcy of US Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The global financial crisis of 2008 was one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression, the consequences of which are still continuing in some countries.Credit Suisse in the global banking systemCredit Suisse is the second largest bank in Switzerland, a systemically important bank in the global financial system, the main dealer and currency counterparty to the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a leader in the global market of structured products.The stability of the entire banking system depends on banks like Credit Suisse. Their bankruptcy could have dire consequences for the entire financial system. Everyone remembers the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the bank filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, after rejecting the bailout. Many consider it the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2008.Credit Suisse problemsThere is now a growing murmur in the news background about problems at Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse has been involved in a large number of scandals in recent years. Last year, the bank suffered billions of dollars in losses with the bankruptcies of major clients Greensill Capital, a financial company, and Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund. Both of these failures were accompanied by allegaticredons of misconduct and potential fraud.Now the U.S. Department of Justice has taken up a new investigation: the bank is suspected of violating the law again. Former bankers have filed a compromise against the company that says it is once again helping customers evade taxes.Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Ulrich Körner said the bank is at a "critical juncture" as it prepares to restructure. The memo was sent out to staff after the company's CDS jumped to all-time highs and the stock price hit all-time lows.What could be the consequences of Credit Suisse's bankruptcyGiven Credit Suisse's role in the global banking system, realizing the risk of its bankruptcy would have global consequences:Shares and structured products issued by Credit Suisse would lose all their value. The bank is the largest player in the structured products market, which would cause the entire structured products market to implode.The chain reaction and collapse of such banks as Deutsche Bank, Credite Agricole, Unicredit, Barclays, Bank of China, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered and many intermediaries.The crisis of the global financial system and the collapse comparable to 2008.The return of many central banks to stimulating the economy through the printing press.The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was unexpected and shocked the financial system. The problems of Credit Suisse have been known for a long time, and there is a high probability that the Swiss government will help the bank in case the situation worsens. But there is a question of the size of this help.This year the ratio of tier 1 capital adequacy of Credit Suisse will make 13-14%, which is considered high for large financial companies and exceeds the regulatory norms. But Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that if the bank doesn't address its problems, it could face an $8 billion capital shortfall in 2024.Now, to reassure investors, the bank said it intends to buy eight issues of euro- and sterling-denominated bonds totaling up to $1 billion. It is also prepared to buy twelve issues of U.S. dollar-denominated securities totaling up to $2 billion.On October 27, 2022, the bank plans to present a detailed plan for its reorganization along with its quarterly results.ConclusionThroughout its history, mankind has gone through numerous crises. Each crisis is unique in its cause, depth and duration. But what all crises have in common is that they end. A recession is always followed by recovery and growth.What does an investor need to know and what should he prepare for? Crises are always accompanied by a decline in the stock markets. That is why it is important for an investor to take care of maximum protection of his capital. First of all, you need to maximize the share of protective assets in your investment portfolio.

OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said that the word "meta-universe" is still misunderstood by the vast majority of people in the world. That's why Apple is trying to avoid the term. The company has mentioned it once. But Meta (recognized as an extremist organization) has used the word "meta-universe" 36 times in its reports this year.And before, Apple was not afraid to set trends and create demand where there was none. Apparently, Meta, which is not afraid to use new words, will now be in charge. Moreover, metaworld is not just an abstract term, but quite specific tasks and solutions (VR-helmets, 3D-graphics, software and so on), on which many companies work.Roblox Metawell (NYSE: RBLX)This is a publicly traded company whose meta-villain is already built and popular today, while others have it only as plans for the future. A share of the company is worth $38 -- nearly five times cheaper than it was at the peak of market hype (November 2021). Last year we underestimated the enthusiasm of the market by half - the price soared to $141. Accordingly, this value over a 3-5 year horizon reflects the potential value of the stock. Analysts emphasize the opportunity offered to users: they can build their own games and applications with the help of an internal constructor. Anyone can work with the platform thanks to a simple interface and flexible functionality.Investing in meta-universes through Unity Software (NYSE: U)Developer of a 3D video game engine. The company's stock is now worth $36.6 - six times cheaper than its peak value (also reached in November 2021), and even cheaper than the low end of its IPO range ($44). At the same time, the company's revenues are twice as high as the 2019 IPO it reported.Microsoft Metasites (NASDAQ: MSFT)Last year generated $198 billion in revenue and $72 billion in profit. With a capitalization of $1.8 trillion, it is the largest and most resilient maker of software, hardware game software and games. As this company's history shows, if it doesn't manage to become a leading player in its target market right away, it still takes a significant share of it over time.Investing in Meta (NASDAQ: META)Zuckerberg is serious and plans to create his own meta universe using all available resources. He's got the makings for it: 3 billion monthly active social media users, ownership of Oculus, the company that makes VR helmets, and enough cash flow to service it all. But so far, the reality lab division (those meta universes) has spent $10 billion on revenues of only $2.3 billion.

In another interpretation, it is also called lovers' day. But, in the end, what difference does it make, the root is one - love! And love, as the poet said, all Forex is submissive! Did the poet say something wrong? Well, it's just that there was no forex back then, he would have corrected himself…Have you ever wondered what there might be in common between FOREX and SEX (except ending, of course)? It is worth imagining a little and you can draw an analogy to almost any concept or action on forex and find an association!  There are no minors here, so I suggest in honor of the thematic holiday to have a little fun and spend a sexy ten-minute. We will not use Viagra, since all of us here are full of energy, enthusiasm and ready for sexual and trading exploits. Well, who is not ready, and Viagra will not help much…Virtual sex trade on demo. In virtual sex, you can imagine yourself (and introduce yourself online) as anyone. Even Brad Pitt, even Antonio Banderas, and even Britney Spears. You will flirt, seduce, imagine how cool you are. And the real result at the output is zero point zero! And so you decided to return to reality and set up a live date with your chosen one. And then a bummer! Instead of a long-legged beauty, a hairy, sweaty man comes to you on a date. And his name is disgusting - Margin Call!Market analysis is a prelude. Good preparation (foreplay) is the key to good sex! You will not wait until the partner is in the right condition at the beginning, it will be difficult to bring him to the desired result in the end! The main thing in this case is not to rush! Do not proceed to the main part of the Marlaison ballet if your partner has not yet matured. Watch him, try to understand his mood, feel when he is ready for action. And only after that – full speed ahead!Love is the key to great sex and a cure for frigidity and impotence! Without love, sex is bland, boring and uninteresting. And with her, he looks like an atomic bomb explosion! Do you like the market? If not, then don't expect reciprocity. You have to love the market. And only then will he respond to your courtship.If you have spontaneous sex, it's trading on the news. Look-spark-discharge! An irresistible desire to do IT here and now. You want her, she wants you. Feelings are strained to the limit, a shiver runs through your bodies, unable to restrain yourself any longer, you grab her in your arms and enter ... into a deal. And then... then, how lucky! Either you thank me for the incomparable impressions, or you curse yourself for what the world is worth, and you think – why did I fall for her at all?? But you have time to grab your portion of adrenaline in any case!There is no need to be afraid of sex for money – trading on signals. It's great - you don't have to do anything special! Professionals will do everything for you. Well, really, it's if good professionals. Sit (lie down) – get high! Well, what remains if someone does not work out for love? At least once, but it's worth a try, for comparison. However, the question arises, who uses whom – you or you? Therefore, it is better still for love! A thousand times more colors and impressions.So. Well, what do you say to getting a stop – a sexual fiasco? I tried, I did everything right, but it didn't work out at all!  At the most inopportune and crucial moment, this unpredictable creature says – "And the ceiling is not painted!" And turns in the other direction… There remains a feeling of resentment and dissatisfaction. I really want to play everything back and try again. But time has passed and the train is already far away…The initiative to change the pose is usually welcome. Especially if nothing works out in the usual one. Pose is a fundamental concept in Kama Sutra and forex! Each of us, of course, at least once in his life looked at the positions of the Kama Sutra (who did not do it – it's never too late to start sexual experiments). However, some poses (especially beginners) need to be looked upside down in order to understand what kind of intricacy of arms and legs there is, and to catch at least some sense in such tricks! You need to have good flexibility and a rich imagination to execute some particularly bold positions. A natural question arises: is it worth it? You can get out and pervert yourself as you like, but it does not always bring the expected pleasure. Exotic poses can numb your arms and legs, and you won't get a profit! Very rarely aggressive attempts like "lock", "stop-flip" and "averaging" help to achieve trading ecstasy!And, of course, tune in to get a profit! Profit is akin to orgasm. You've fallen in love, they don't seem to be chasing you either. There came a moment X when you decided it was time to do IT. You showed patience and endurance, studied the habits and characteristics of the object of lust – and the foreplay was a bang! And if in the main part of the process you were able to feel each other, be attentive to the little things, take your time, then a mutual orgasm will not take long to wait! My deepest conviction is that there are no cold women, as well as bad markets. There are bad lovers.  And illiterate traders.Contraception is the most important thing in sex. And in forex. Protect yourself, protect yourself and protect yourself again! Not sure about choosing the right partner? Don't know what to expect from him? Stay out of the market on the fence. And if you decide to get involved - be sure to follow the rules of money management! We are for safe sex!Adventures in sex and forex do not lead to anything good. Promiscuous sex life did not bring anyone to good. Casual sex, as well as a casual transaction – if without consequences, then there will be something to remember with a smile in old age. And if with the consequences, you will have to be treated for a long time, and it is very likely that you will not restore the deposit. It depends on what you get sick with…

Sri Lanka (an island nation in southern Asia) has literally run out of gasoline and diesel fuel. India will provide assistance. Fuel from neighbors will arrive in the country in mid-July.India has been helping Sri Lanka for 3 months. During this time, 400,000 tons of fuel were shipped. For comparison, in the USA, more than 17 million tons are spent per day. So stocks in Sri Lanka go only for the most necessary.At gas stations, gasoline is issued by coupons, if at all. Electricity is periodically cut off. The workers were transferred to a 4-day week. The authorities recommend spending free time in vegetable gardens. But the food, apparently, will have to be eaten raw (or fried on a fire) — gas is also in short supply.How did the fuel crisis happen in Sri Lanka in 2022?The country is going through the worst crisis since 1948. Sri Lanka faced a default (not like in Russia, but with the present). Payments have been stopped on all bonds and bilateral loans.It all started with a pandemic. Due to the coronavirus, the country was left without tourists (more than 10% of GDP). The inflow of foreign currency has decreased. Ceylon tea has not grown due to the ban on the import of chemical fertilizers. Another source of foreign currency has disappeared.Sri Lanka's external debt has exceeded $50 billion. Inflation has exceeded 50%. Fuel debt to other countries is more than $700 million. The crisis is accompanied by hunger. The main food product - rice has risen in price by 93%, lentils - by 117%. Other countries supply humanitarian aid with food, but this does not relieve tension: protests against the government have been going on in the country for several months, there are victims and dead on both sides.

The "pearl in the crown of Switzerland" and one of the richest banks in the country, Credit Suisse, is again at the center of a scandal: the company was fined 2 million francs for legalizing the proceeds from international cocaine trafficking.As it turned out, the capital of the Bulgarian mafia was stored in Credit Suisse. From 2004 to 2008, the bank conducted transactions for 146 million francs, with a third brought in cash in suitcases.The money belonged to Bulgarian drug dealers led by Evelyn "Brando" Banev, a former athlete and developer. All operations were carried out by the Customer relations manager Elena Pampulova-Bergomi.Brendo has been accused of drug trafficking, organizing murders and money laundering since 2007. He faces 20 years in prison in Italy and 6 in Bulgaria.He has been successfully hiding for the last seven years. It turned out that the cocaine king had been living in Eastern Europe all this time using forged documents. But in the autumn of 2021, he was detained near Kiev and extradited to his homeland.Was Credit Suisse aware of the mafia's affairs?The bank knew about Banev's crimes, but continued to cooperate with him, Pampulova-Bergomi believes. The girl herself quit the company in 2010.At the same time, representatives of Credit Suisse assure that the businessman earned money on construction, and do not admit guilt. But this did not convince law enforcement: a Swiss court sentenced Pampulova-Bergomi to 20 months in prison and a fine. And Credit Suisse will take away 12 million francs received from the bandits, and 19 million francs of compensation.It's not the first time the bank has been caughtCredit Suisse often gets into the criminal chronicle. What else did Switzerland's second largest bank do?He bought gold in Nazi Germany during World War II, and after the war he did not give money from the accounts of the deceased to the legitimate heirs. As a result, he paid $1.25 billion to the Holocaust Victims Fund to hush up the scandal.For decades, he helped residents of the United States, Brazil and Germany to evade taxes. Several bank employees were jailed, and the company paid a $2.6 billion fine.He issued loans to state-owned companies in Mozambique for "kickbacks" to bankers and local officials. As a result, a fine of $475 million had to be paid for bribery and fraud.He laundered money of politicians and oligarchs from Belarus, Ukraine, Spain, Jordan, Russia and other countries. The full list was compiled in 2022 after a major leak of documents.However, the verdict on mafia money laundering is a turning point for Switzerland, says Mark Pit, an expert at the University of Basel. After all, Credit Suisse is not just a company, but the second largest bank in the country, which manages assets worth $ 1.6 trillion.Perhaps the Swiss authorities will strengthen control over banks to avoid such scandals. But it is possible that Credit Suisse will get off with a fine again.

The Nasdaq Composite index has already lost more than 30% since the beginning of the year. And according to Alan Greenspan, the iconic chairman of the Fed, if the stock market falls by 30-40% in a few weeks or months, then it's a bubble.So, what's in our yard? Maybe this is the dotcom 2.0 crisis?The Dotcom Bubble in 2000: How the market collapsed 20 years agoFrom 1995 to 2001, the stock market was overwhelmed by a wave of HYPE associated with the development of the Internet. Numerous Internet startups with "brilliant business ideas" and a complete lack of net profit began to enter the IPO. But investors were ready to invest long-term.In 2001, the NASDAQ index collapsed, the so-called "dotcom bubble" burst. This was provoked by two factors:The crisis in Japan provoked an outflow of Japanese investors from the American stock market - in particular, from dot-coms.It turned out that for 5 years, many Internet projects have not learned how to generate profit, but at the same time they coped well with spending money on advertising their own brand. News about bankruptcies and criminal cases involving blatantly fraudulent schemes began to appear more and more often.As a result, the bursting of the bubble in 2002 was followed by a short recession. Even strong companies have suffered huge losses, losing a significant part of their market value. However, later most were able to recover - for example, Amazon, Ebay, Yahoo (now owned by Verizon).What does the bubble of 2000 have in common with today?Behind any bubble there is a new idea, a myth. This is usually facilitated by the aggressive growth of some technology and a burning belief in it. There is talk of a "new world" and a "new economy". Then, at the end of the 90s, the shares of companies with the cherished ".com" in their names flew away like hot cakes. Approximately the same thing is happening today, only the "fetishes" are new: "crypto", "green", "IT projects".During the bubble inflating period, the value of shares significantly exceeds the fundamental indicators of the company. During the dot-com era, investors were willing to buy the securities of unprofitable companies for the long term. Economists also echoed them - "these are growth stocks", "a new economy has come." Even today, investors, looking at the success stories of American big techs like Google or Facebook, are trying to find promising companies without bothering much with their fundamental assessment.Inflating the bubble is greatly facilitated by the influx of cheap money into the economy. There is an opinion that in the 90s the Fed contributed to the dot-com crisis by maintaining a low interest rate: investors had a lot of extra money that went to the stock market. In the 2000s, the key rate, on the contrary, was sharply raised - so the market "deflated".Despite the fact that now there is an order of magnitude more money poured into the economy than in the late 90s, because then there was no "quantitative easing" in sight. And the "low" Fed rate of that time, 5%, does not look so low: today it is about 1%.In addition, inflation in the period 1995-2000 was in the range of 1.5-3.5%, while now it is above 8%.All this suggests sad thoughts: the dotcom bubble of 2001, compared with the impending crisis, may seem like a burst balloon against the background of the big bang.

In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to predict.