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Forex analytical forecast for today, January 17, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 17, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Crude oil USDJPY: economists expect decisions of the Japanese regulatorNegative dynamics of the US dollar has influenced positions of USDJPY, which is testing 128.60.Transaction activity on the trading floors has been actively declining before the start of the Central Bank of Japan summit, scheduled for 5:00 (GMT+2). The price index for corporate goods reflected a build-up in inflation pressures, reaching 10.2% annualized from last year's 9.7%, with expectations of a decline to 9.5%, while the monthly value declined to 0.5% from 0.8%, with estimates of 0.3%. The negative trend may provoke financial authorities to embark on radical decisions. Economists envisage that a sharp change in the vector of monetary parameters in full measure will come only in the spring of 2023. Experts refrain from forecasts on the key indicator correction, however the most probable scenario is considered to be the one where the rate will continue to occupy the level of -10% due to the absence of factors capable of causing serious damage to the national economy. In the meantime, analysts will want to evaluate the statistics on the industrial sector that lost 0.1% in December, which was announced on Wednesday, January 18.Resistance levels: 130.41 and 132.90.Support levels: 127.16, 123.80.AUDUSD: The pair is trading in a mixed trendThe Australian currency reflects a moderate strengthening during morning trading, regaining positions lost earlier. According to the outcome, the AUDUSD trading instrument showed volatility on Monday, remaining in minor territory. However, the pair successfully updated the local maximum of August 27. Recall that trading floors in the U.S. were not open because the U.S. population is celebrating Martin Luther King's Day.Notable support for the instrument were statistics from China and Australia. Thus, the Australian Westpac consumer confidence in January strengthened to 5.0% from 3.0%, having surpassed neutral forecasts of experts. Celestial data showed a decline of GDP (gross domestic product) in Q4 last year to 2.9% from 3.9% which was better than market expectations of 1.8%. December retail sales slid 1.8% having previously shown a decrease of 5.9% while market estimated a further decline to -7.8%.Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150.Support levels: 0.6950, 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800.Gold prices analysisThe precious metal price is correcting during the APAC trading session, revealing the potential for correction impulse formed earlier on the background of which the instrument managed to retreat from the record peak of April 25. Gold is trading at 1910.00 under bearish pressure due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against most of its peers. Transaction activity has been minimized amid the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the U.S.Meanwhile, gold is finding positive momentum in confirmations that financial authorities in the world's leading economies are considering easing hawkish pressures in the short term. Thus, the Fed may strengthen the interest rate at its February meeting by only 0.25%, after which officials will take a pause in the cycle of monetary tightening. The Bank of England and the ECB (European Central Bank) are also approaching a softening of monetary parameters as the economic recession no longer poses a threat to the eurozone because of the weakened inflation potential and falling energy prices.Resistance levels: 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00.Support levels: 1900.00, 1886.46, 1869.49, 1857.27.Oil market analysis.The price of benchmark Brent crude oil is consolidating during the morning session, taking the initiative away from the bears when the asset failed to consolidate positions at its local January 3 peak.Negative factors are generally of technical nature, because the main trend remains positive. According to the assessment of the UAE (United Arab Emirates) Energy Minister, the current oil market situation is balanced despite the unstable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ cartel member countries' production capacity has declined by 3.7 million barrels per day due to lower investment flow into the industry.Official Beijing reported a strengthening of the national GDP (gross domestic product) by 2.9% in Q4, having previously strengthened by 3.9%, while analysts were expecting the rate to decrease to 1.8%. The quarterly value reflected zero volatility, contrary to experts' estimates of a 0.8% decline. The industrial sector for December declined to 1.3% from 2.2%, beating expectations of a 0.5% decline.Resistance levels: 85.15, 86.00, 87.33, 89.20.Support levels: 83.89, 82.27, 81.00, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, January 9, for NZDUSD, USDJPY, Crude oil & Gold
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 9, for NZDUSD, USDJPY, Crude oil & Gold NZDUSD: the bulls are strengthening the instrumentThe New Zealand currency was rapidly strengthening during the Asian trading session, having updated the local maximum on December 19. Currency pair NZDUSD is consolidating at the level of 0.6400 with the prospect of further strengthening, and market participants are rapidly selling off the U.S. dollar amid the published data on the U.S. employment market. According to December statistics new jobs showed an increase of 223.0 thousand, surpassing economists' expectations of 23.0 thousand vacancies, unemployment fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, with an estimate of strengthening to 3.7%. The pay-per-hour rate fell to 4.6% year-over-year from 4.8% previously, with analysts forecasting an uptrend to 5.0%, and the monthly rate dropped to 0.3% from 0.4%. Major market participants expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to correct the dynamics of monetary policy in favor of easing as soon as possible.Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6450, 0.6500 and 0.6535.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6288, 0.6250 and 0.6200.USDJPY: dollar began the trading week with a downtrendThe trading instrument USDJPY showed a mixed trend during the morning session, testing the 131.70 mark. The US dollar continues to be under the "bearish" dynamic, having lost ground at the end of the previous trading week, having moved away from the local resistance of December 20.Meanwhile, analysts expect the Japanese regulator to launch a mechanism of tightening monetary parameters, including an increase in key indicators, taking the interest rate out of the negative zone with the onset of spring this year. The head of the Japanese government, supporting the initiative of the trade union confederation Rengo at a meeting of several national major lobbies to increase employee pay. The official noted that the Japanese economy has a high risk of colliding with stagflation if wages are not indexed to the current rate of inflation. At the same time the authorities plan to allocate up to 1.0 trillion yen for the retraining of workers, moreover, employers will be encouraged to refuse payment of one-time bonuses in favor of an increase in fixed labor compensation.Resistance levels: 132.00, 133.00, 133.61, 134.50.Support levels: 131.00, 130.00, 129.00, 128.00.Gold analysisIn Asia-Pacific trading, gold showed moderate gains, having successfully updated the highs of May to 1875.00, developing an uptrend and gaining support amid the release of the US macroeconomic data, which served as the argument for monetary easing by the Fed.Thus, Friday was marked by the release of the December report on the employment market, which reflected the reduction of the unemployment rate to 3.5% from 3.6%, with the estimates of an increase to 3.7% due to the lower dynamics of the average pay rise, allowing the agency to stick to the plans outlined earlier, providing for the next stage of the key indicator strengthening in the first half of this year, which may be followed by a break. An additional negative factor for the "American" by the end of the previous week was the publication of the business activity data in the service sector from ISM (Institute for Supply Management), which reflected a noticeable reduction for the first time in the last years. Thus, the December value decreased to 49.6 points from 56.5 points with the forecasted decline to 55.0 points, on the other hand, such situation indicates a rapid loss of the inflation potential, allowing the US Federal Reserve System to take a wait-and-see approach.Resistance levels: 1879.30, 1900.00, 1915.00, 1930.00.Support levels: 1869.49, 1857.27, 1843.37, 1828.22.Crude Oil analysisThe price of the benchmark Brent crude oil is testing the 79.00 mark.The growth in quotations occurred due to the cancellation of a number of epidemiological measures by the PRC authorities. Thus, from January 8, it was simplified mandatory testing and centralized isolation for tourists entering China. Experts predict that such an algorithm will stimulate the recovery of production capacity, increasing the demand for energy. Meanwhile, China continues to consult on the possibility of using its national currency when signing contracts on "black gold" with the Persian Gulf countries. The parties may come to an agreement by 2025, according to some experts, will mark the emergence of the "oil yuan" and establish a new energy order. For example, China is currently increasing its imports of hydrocarbons and LNG from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, settling accounts in yuan.Resistance levels: 82.40 and 86.90.Support levels: 78.00, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, January 4, for NZDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & gold
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 4, for NZDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & gold NZDUSD: updating the low of NovemberThe New Zealand currency reflects a slight strengthening in the Asian trading session, recovering the earlier lost positions, which allowed the pair NZDUSD to renew its local low of November 30. The trading instrument is at 0.6260 with the prospect of further gains, while investors are reducing trading activity waiting for the release of the final minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting for December and the U.S. jobs market report, announced for the end of the week."The New Zealander is under negative influence amid the release of a contradictory macroeconomic data block. According to the report, the cost of dairy products for December fell by 2.8%, having previously fallen by 3.8% last month, contrary to analysts' expectations of a positive correction to 0.6%. Disappointing statistics was also the Chinese PMI (business activity index) in the industrial sector from Caixin for December dropped to 49.0 points from 49.4, while beating market expectations of 48.8 points. The negative economic stimulus from China's news backdrop continues to come from new spikes in covid-19 infections, following the loosening of quarantine restrictions. Economists are already leaning towards a longer recovery than expected the day before.Resistance levels are at 0.6288, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100.USDJPY: The long-term outlook is for the bearsEarlier, the trading instrument USDJPY made a local low of June, reaching 129.52, but by the end of the day trading the asset has fully recovered its positions.The Japanese yen was supported by the statements of the head of the government of official Tokyo, who confirmed his intention to hold consultations with the managers of the national property enterprises on the increase in wages for employees within the indexation of payments to level out the inflation rate at 3.8%. According to the official, the authorities are working to establish a framework under which wage payments will be indexed annually, because it will stimulate consumer activity and economic indicators to provide an incentive for continued growth, from which the positive signals will receive the Japanese yen. Fumio Kishida's statement hit the news space when public concern began to surge, as the cost of living was under a severe crisis and the Cabinet of Ministers' rating showed a steep drop.Resistance levels: 134.47, 138.05, 139.50.Support levels: 130.90, 127.90, 124.10.GBPUSD: The GDP of the UK is facing serious challengesPound shows multidirectional trading dynamics, intending to win back the lost positions earlier. At the moment of writing this article the currency pair GBPUSD is near the local low of November 23, trying to reach the psychological threshold of 1.2000 to overcome it.The United Kingdom's economic indicators continue to be affected by unprecedented domestic challenges such as high inflation and rising cost of living, which is only amplified by the flow of migration as 45,756 thousand people crossed the Channel last year, also workers are not happy with the working environment in the budget sector. Thus, an alliance of railway, maritime and transport unions (RMT) was formed, which announced a five-day action, which is taking place this week, with the number of participants reaching about 40 thousand railway workers, who put forward their demands for higher pay and cancellation of cuts.Resistance levels: 1.2027, 1.2084, 1.2150 and 1.2240.Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700, 1.1600.Gold Market analysisAfter prolonged trading within the ascending slope, the asset successfully went over the limit, taking as a target the July maximum at the level of 1877.00.Experts predict rapid appreciation of the banking metal throughout the current year to the level of 4000.00, against the background of regular interest rate hikes by the world's leading regulators. Moreover, some economists expect that a number of economies will start recession already in Q1, due to which the precious metal will successfully outflank its competitors as a refuge asset amid conflicting market trends and rising inflation. The World Gold Council confirmed the information of the growing interest of world investors in the asset. Thus, according to the report, central banks bought about 400.0 tons of gold in Q3 2022, almost surpassing the previous record of 241.0 tons in Q3 2018. According to the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), investors increased the volume of net long gold contracts by 1,898,000, renewing a new 6-month high of 58,452,000 transactions.Resistance levels: 1877.00, 1918.00.Support levels: 1806.00, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 21, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 21, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD & Gold EURUSD: cheap "blue fuel" gives support to the euroHaving passed the next round of correction of gas price in the EU the EURUSD trading instrument is developing a positive trend, testing the level of 1.0609.According to the Dutch exchange TTF, the transaction value of "blue fuel" with a delivery date in February is at 1120.0 USD per 1.0 thousand cubic meters, the extreme price for June, when peak gas supplies were recorded through the pipeline "Nord Stream". The current price gives eurozone countries a chance to conclude long-term contracts for supplies for the spring, as current reserves are marginal. Meanwhile, the German producer's index level fell 3.9% in November, slowing to 28.2% year-over-year from 34.5% last year.Resistance levels: 1.0675, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0525, 1.0320.AUDUSD: Bears are holding their ground against the Australian currency."The Aussie" demonstrates a moderate decline within the "bears" momentum formed earlier. AUDUSD noticeably decreased at the session of Tuesday, having updated the local minimum of November 22, but by the end of trading the "bulls" restored their positions. A moderate negative factor for the U.S. dollar was the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. Thus, the analysts' attention was not avoided by the decrease of the construction works impulse by 0,5% in November, having decreased by 2,1% in the previous month. The level of approved building applications for the same period was down 11.2%, a loss of 3.3% for October.Meanwhile, a moderate negative trend for the Australian currency is being exerted amid an agreement by Japanese regulator officials to raise the range of the likely retreat of the national securities income indicator from the target. Economists took such decision as a signal for possible rejection of ultra soft monetary vector, which can be caused by inflation in Japan that reached 3.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6628, 0.6583, 0.6520 and 0.6450.GBPUSD: pound is under the influence of contradictory factorsWithin the Asian trading session the trading instrument GBPUSD reflects a mixed dynamics, testing the level of 1.2165.At the last meeting the national regulator of Great Britain announced about the recession in Q4, but noted that the economy will return to growth by the beginning of 2024. Tomorrow the release of updated data on the level of GDP (gross domestic product) for Q3 is expected. By the way, the previous figures reflected the downward correction of 0.2% for the quarter and upward correction of 2.4% for the year. Meanwhile, the head of the British government has confirmed the abandonment of the policy proposed by his predecessor to purchase foreign energy resources, and the working commission for contracts with foreign operators will be canceled, because in the opinion of the official, the work of the global gas market should be carried out without the correction of politicians. The day before, an emergency plan from National Grid Plc. was released, providing a set of tools, including a planned schedule of rolling blackouts for power grid customers if the winter is too cold, as well as an end to buying gas from Russia.Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2311, 1.2400 and 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2084, 1.2027, 1.1939.Gold market analysisQuotes of the precious metal are trading in correction, moving away from the local high of December 13, updated earlier.The asset showed rapid strengthening, which is due to the sentiment on the U.S. dollar, which reflected the negative reaction to the release of data from the U.S. residential real estate market. Also bullish dynamics was caused also by fears because of the system interest rates increase by the key regulators of the financial world, which can provoke the beginning of the global economic recession. Earlier the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB (European Central Bank) tightened monetary parameters, strengthening rates by 0.50%, confirming the decrease in the rate of correction in the future. However, the euro zone economic indicators have already started to show signs of recession, and the UK regulator said that the slowdown of economic growth in the country has already begun.Resistance levels: 1816.62, 1828.22, 1843.37, 1857.27.Support levels: 1800.00, 1786.28, 1765.66, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 12, for USDCHF, USDJPY, Gold & Cryptocurrencies
USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 12, for USDCHF, USDJPY, Gold & Cryptocurrencies USDCHF: the pair is in a corrective moodAfter the termination of the "bears" domination last week, where USD/CHF pair updated the local minimum of April 12, in the morning trading there is an active attempt to strengthen.Investors are giving advantage of profit taking on short positions before the fast-approaching summit of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, scheduled for Tuesday, December 13. Market participants are confident of a 0.50% rise in the key index due to the gradual reduction of consumer price pressures. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to release updated economic forecasts, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell may attempt to reassure markets by reiterating previous guidance for the U.S. economy. Before that, analysts will focus on November consumer price statistics, which will be released tomorrow. The preliminary estimate sees the monthly figure accelerating to 0.5% from 0.4% while the annual figure is expected to show zero growth of 7.7%.Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9478, 0.9550, 0.9600.Support levels: 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250, 0.9200.USDJPY: dollar is making up for last week's lossesThe American currency shows positive momentum, being at 137.00 with an upside prospect, while the "bulls" are waiting for more stimulus to strengthen the trend.A moderate support to the Japanese yen is provided by the positive macroeconomic data block on production prices. Thus, according to the November results the index of industrial inflation strengthened by 0.6%, having earlier strengthened by 0.8% for the previous month, while analysts expected the decline to 0.5%. Domestic corporate commodity prices showed a slight correction to 9.3% from 9.4% with the market expecting 8.9%. Meanwhile, large manufacturing sector activity for Q4 decreased by 3.6%, having previously strengthened by 1.7%, with a minimum of 0.1% growth expected. Economists noted the high potential momentum of economic recovery in Japan for the current quarter due to the removal of part of the sanctions on semiconductors for the auto industry and the lifting of control measures due to Covid-19, allowing to increase tourism capacity, both international and domestic. This will lead to support for private consumption, spurring an October-December economic recovery.Resistance levels: 137.50, 138.50, 139.58, 140.79.Support levels: 136.50, 135.57, 134.78, 133.61.Gold pricesThe precious metal is showing a strong decline, having retreated from the local high of December 5, updated last Friday. The stock trades at 1785.00, continuing a decline ahead of the release of inflation data for November, announced ahead of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The current estimate calls for inflation at 7.7%, but the core could rise to 6.4% from 6.3%. Investors are predicting a 0.50% hike in the interest rate by the agency, but of greater importance is the updated forecast by officials for the medium term.At the same time, the Swiss National Bank, ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England are scheduled to meet this week. Preliminary estimates suggest a continuation of moderate interest rate hikes, despite the high probability of a recession for the EU and United Kingdom economies.Resistance levels: 1800.00, 1816.62, 1828.22, 1843.37.Support levels: 1786.28, 1765.66, 1753.09, 1734.91.Cryptocurrency Market AnalysisLast week showed a decline of the first cryptocurrency BTC to the level of 16700.00, but later some positions were recovered at the level of 17200.00, where the trading continues in the last sessions.The cryptocurrency market continues to be affected by contradictory factors, firstly, the negative mood is due to the bankruptcy of a major trading platform FTX, and secondly, from a significant collapse in the prices of electronic assets retain monetary reasons. The process of liquidation over the last six months has dealt a strong blow to the reputation of the sector which deprived assets of a considerable part of investments. As follows from a survey of the U.S. population, initiated by CNBC channel, by the end of this year, the level of confidence among surveyed citizens to invest in digital assets fell from 19.0% to 8.0%, the number of respondents with a strongly negative opinion about crypto-assets after the bankruptcy of FTX and Terraform has increased from 25.0% to 43.0%. The exit of the FTX exchange from the market has not escaped the attention of the authorities, which will make it more likely to establish regulatory bodies over the activities of such a segment of investment, reducing the interest of potential newcomers. At the moment, a number of government regulators are conducting audits on unfair practices in the PR-companies exchanges, and the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) made a requirement for the national business to transmit data on the ownership of digital assets, in addition to disclose information on trading transactions in the cryptocurrency market.Resistance levels: 17830.00, 19100.00, 20000.00.Support levels: 16800.00, 15700.00, 15000.00, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil AUDUSD: pair has reached the level of 0.6800The Australian currency is showing moderate strengthening, having updated the local high of September 13, intending to overcome the resistance threshold of 0.6800.The macroeconomic block of published Australian data failed to affect the markets, meanwhile the traders' attention was spared by the sharp dip in inflation rate for October to 6.9% from 7.3% earlier, contrary to analysts' estimations of further strengthening to the level of 7.4%. Positive support for the instrument was provided by a 2.2% strengthening of the level of completed constructions for Q3, having earlier decreased by 2.0%. Thursday morning publications are not able to support the prospect for the bullish momentum in the pair. Thus, the industrial sector business activity from S&P Global for November moderately declined to 51.3 points from the previous 51.5 points, not justifying even the neutral estimates of the experts.Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.NZDUSD: updating local highs for AugustThe New Zealand dollar is trading up moderately, having updated the local highs of August 17.Positions in the NZD/USD trading instrument continue to remain under pressure amid weak New Zealand indicators. Thus, sentiment expectations from the ANZ for November updated to -13.7% from the previous -2.5%, disappointing analysts who expected only -2.1%. The head of the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) pointed out that the recession was deliberately triggered to lower the consumer price index, having earlier officially strengthened the percentage by 0,75% to the target of 4,25%, after which investors got the signal that in 2023 the value has a chance to reach the maximum peak of 5,5%. The regulator's updated expectations call for the economy to contract at 1.0% for the next 12 months beginning in mid-Spring and then remain at that level for the next six months before resuming growth.Resistance levels: 0.6350, 0.6400, 0.6450 and 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6288, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155.Gold pricesThe precious metal position in the market updated at 1780.00, intending to continue climbing to the level of 1785.00.Earlier, investors appreciated the speech of the US Federal Reserve chief, who signaled to the markets his intention to slow down the rate of interest rate correction from the next scheduled meeting. Thus, by mid-December, the agency will strengthen the key rate by 0.25%-0.50%, ending the systemic 0.75% hike. The official commented that the current decisions do not signal the end of the "hawkish" era of monetary policy, and the interest rate will remain high for a long time, where it will remain until the consumer price level corrects to the 2.0% target. Investors began to actively sell off the U.S. dollar, giving gold prices a boost on the market.Precious metals continue to see uncertainty in the market. According to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), last week net speculative positions for commodities were 116.1 thousand instead of 126.3 thousand. Market bears remain the leaders among swap dealers with 191.153 thousand instead of bullish 95.880 thousand, but sellers cut 5.020 thousand contracts, while buyers strengthened 4.259 thousand, which from the outside looks like a correction.Resistance levels: 1785.00, 1806.00, 1877.00.Support levels: 1725.00, 1680.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the "black gold" of the Brent grade traded with contradictory dynamics, testing the 86.80 indicator.Positive dynamics for oil meets resistance with expectations of OPEC+ meeting announced for the end of the week. According to Reuters citing unnamed sources, the cartel does not intend to approve an additional reduction in production capacity of raw materials, following the example of the previous meeting in October, where the strategy was changed in favor of increasing plans for 2.0 million barrels per day in view of the unstable situation in the world markets. Recall that since December 5, investors expect an increased level of volatility in the market due to the beginning of the prohibition of supplies of oil by sea from Russia. Moreover, the European alliance countries want to agree on the upper price limit for the Russian raw materials, but could not come to an agreement, as uncertainty and disagreement among members of the bloc continue. It is likely that the European authorities' decision will cause growth in oil without a correction in the production quota.Resistance levels: 87.33, 89.20, 91.00 and 92.47.Support levels: 86.00, 83.89, 82.27, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil USDJPY: The dollar started the trading week with declineThe US currency showed a downward trend against the Japanese yen, holding near the local low of November 15, at 138.50.The dollar has not lost its intention to recover losses since the end of the previous Friday, after the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting, which indicated the agreement to reduce the "hawkish" intensity regarding the interest rate strengthening in the future. For investors, it gave hope for a 0.50% correction in the next December meeting of the agency. However, financial authorities noted that such a decision does not signal the end of the fight against inflation, because the latter is still being held at record levels.Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50 and 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.AUDUSD: Australia's economy is decliningA downward correction in the Australian currency allowed the AUD/USD pair to reach the 0.6685 level."Bears" gained the dominant advantage after the release of weak macroeconomic data. According to the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), retail turnover for October was down 0.2% after strengthening 0.6%, the first time since December's 4.1% slump last year that the value has corrected downwards, the current swing was due to the weakening of all major industries except perhaps the grocery retail sector. Department stores were the key contributors to the negative movement, down 2.4%, followed by clothing retailing with -2.0% and restaurant and café chains also down -0.4% for the first time since January. The head of statistics of the retail segment of the ABS noted that the current situation is caused by an increase in the percentage indicator and will have a long-term impact on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesGold pricesThe price of the precious metal is consolidating at 1750.00, waiting for another positive signal, ending the moderate strengthening the day before, where the correction in gold was due to the weakness of the US dollar because of the release of November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.This week is important for further price movement of the asset, first of all, the release of the euro area consumer price statistics, as well as the data on the US employment market in November, which will be announced by the end of the week. Preliminary market assessments imply the reduction of the inflation rate to 10.4% from 10.6%, while the core CPI value will remain at the same level of 5.0%. The labor market statistics from the US are not expected to be sensational as forecasts expect new job postings excluding the agribusiness sector for November at 208,0K previously showing an October increase of 261,0K and the number of unemployed to display zero correction and remain at 3.7%.Resistance levels: 1765.30, 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1734.91, 1720.00, 1700.00, 1688.58.Oil signalsThe current trading week started with the active decrease in the Brent oil, revealing the potential of the "bears", which had gained the advantage since the end of the previous week, getting ready to test the 81.00 level.A decline in U.S. crude reserves provides little support for the "black gold. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a week earlier that strategic reserves were down by 3.691 million barrels, having previously declined by another 5.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) approved an extended license for 6 months for the largest national energy enterprise, which will allow the supply of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela, partially offsetting the shortfall in the Russian oil market and stabilizing the fall in market prices. However, the document still prohibits the payment of any tax duty or royalty to the Venezuelan government, besides receiving any dividend from PDVSA, which is a Venezuelan state oil company or other legal entity is still prohibited.Resistance levels: 82.27, 83.89, 86.00, 87.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 78.28, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold AUD/USD: The Australian currency is testing 0.6600The AUD/USD posted a weak strengthening in an attempt to recover losses incurred from an earlier correction, where the AUD/USD updated to a local low on Nov. 11. The asset is trading at 0.6620, supported by a technical factor.Investors took wait-and-see attitude, wishing to evaluate the final minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve officials meeting, announced for Wednesday. The market expects the financial authorities to lower the rate of interest rate hike, but statements of the Board members will be no less important. During the afternoon session, investors expect statements from the chairman of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), where they will be able to adjust forecasts regarding the prospects of tightening monetary parameters in the future. Statistics with economic fundamentals is announced for Wednesday of this week. Among other things, economists want to assess business activity from the Commonwealth Bank and S&P Global in November. The current expectations are for the service sector to drop to 49.1 points from 49.3 points and for manufacturing to drop to 52.4 points from 52.7 points.Resistance levels are 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750 and 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6583, 0.6520, 0.6450, 0.6400.USD/CHF: Investors await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meetingThe American currency is trading unsteady lower near the local high reached earlier on November 11. Traders refrained from excessive activity on the markets wishing to get acquainted with the outcome protocols of the U.S. regulator; besides the block of macroeconomic indicators on durable goods orders in October and PMI in November is of interest to them. Please be reminded that experts place their bets on slowdown in monetary policy tightening by the US financial authorities. According to insiders, during the December summit the Fed may soften the hawkish rhetoric and the interest rate will be raised only by 0.50% against the usual 0.75%. However, the upper bound on the target correction may also be revised upward because consumer price pressures are above the 2.0% target.Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762.Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9478, 0.9400, 0.9350.Read more: USD/CHF: forex signals, online trading forecasts for today, characteristics & featuresUSD/CAD: The "bulls" lost the advantage at 1.3475The upward movement of the trading instrument to 1.3475 is due to the weakness of the Canadian currency because of the "black gold" WTI quotations slump, which decreased from 94.00 to 75.80. In the course of two weeks the asset losses reached 19.4%.The energy carrier correction the day before was 5% amid The Wall Street Journal report about the OPEC's intention to increase production by 500.0 thousand barrels a day to compensate for a possible decline of raw materials in Europe, but the information was denied by participants of the organization, after which the "black gold" resumed its positions at the opening session level earlier this week, and trading instrument USD/CAD retreated from its peak at 1.3475, preparing to develop a downward trend.The long-term prospect of the price movement remains for the "bears" in the market. The day before the investors had no success in testing the resistance levels of 1.3530-1.3475. It is likely that further decline will help the asset to update the minimum at the levels of 1.3250-1.3200, and after the retreat from the threshold of 1.3200, the negative dynamics will strengthen and the testing of the value 1.2970 will follow.Resistance levels: 1.3475, 1.3530.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200.Gold priceThe price of the precious metal is correcting in a downtrend, testing the level of 1744.00.The upward trend of the asset ended, after which the "bears" regained the asset advantage due to the alarming news background from China, which has already confirmed the death of its citizens, who were infected with the Covid-19 infection. Authorities have now begun closing industrial centers, raising fears of a complete lockdown in the provinces, which may increase pressure on the gold position.China held the leading position among consumers and miners of the asset, which is only confirmed by updated data from processing centers in Switzerland. For October, the country exported 159.57 tons of bank metal, the bulk of which was shipped to China, accounting for a share of 43.7 tons. This level is slightly lower than the 44.02 for September, reflecting lower demand due to increased quarantine measures in some provinces of the Celestial Empire. Turkey, according to the statistics, holds second place, as gold shipments to Ankara for October totaled 31.4 tons, behind September imports of 32.2 tons, confirming a trend of locally lower metal consumption.Support levels: 1725.0, 1665.0.Resistance levels: 1780.0, ...
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Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023
Gold, mineral, Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023 Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
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Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
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Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021
Gold, mineral, Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021 At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...
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Is it worth investing in gold now?
Gold, mineral, Is it worth investing in gold now? Is it worth investing in Gold now?Gold is the most popular precious metal for investment. The profitability of investments in it is subject to significant fluctuations, but over the past 5 years, the precious metal has brought investors ~68% in dollars, the average annual yield was ~13.6%.What does the price of Gold depend onTraditionally, it is believed that investing in Gold protects against inflation. But in many ways, metal prices depend on supply and demand.  In the first place in terms of demand for Gold is the jewelry industry ~45%. Investments in it take ~25-30%. Purchases of gold by central banks on average amount to ~15-20%. Production accounts for ~7-10% of the total demand.  Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the current situation with supply and demandAccording to a study by GOLDHUB, the demand for gold in the first half of 2021 decreased by 10% year-on-year to 1885.2 tons. Gold production increased by 4.27% to 2307.9 tons.  What the banks say The banks' opinions on Gold prices are divided. Credit Suisse and Société Générale forecast a decline in gold prices to an average of $1,670 per ounce with a ceiling of $1,792 by the end of the year. Commerzbank and Standard Chartered are more optimistic — the banks believe that Gold prices can recover to $1834 and $1820 per ounce, respectively.Analysts' opinionThere is a surplus of Gold supply in the amount of 422.7 tons on the market. To reduce it, it is necessary that the demand for jewelry and investment increased by 20%, and production remained at the current level. But the growth of gold production by 2023 is projected to be almost 2 times.  Given the possible increase in the Fed rate by 2023 and the associated growth of the dollar, the strong growth of gold looks doubtful. It seems that the prices for precious metals in the near future will range from $1,670 to 1,820 per ounce.  The current price levels for investors look unattractive from the point of view of prospects for 12-18 months. Most likely, Gold will provide more interesting levels to buy.Read more: What does the Fed rate ...
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Investing in Gold in 2021: high profit and protection from inflation or a trap for beginners?
Gold, mineral, Investing in Gold in 2021: high profit and protection from inflation or a trap for beginners? Without exaggeration, Gold can be called one of the most popular precious metals. It is Gold that is considered to be a safe haven asset, to which funds should be transferred in the event of financial crises. However, as it turned out, in 2021, competent financial market participants were divided into 2 groups: some believe that Gold has already outlived itself, since investing in a net asset will not allow you to extract passive profit (dividends), while others are convinced that Gold is the only real money that is not afraid of inflation and other troubles of modern economic reality.It is striking that the above-mentioned opinions do not contradict each other in any way. Each of the beliefs can be considered fair. It all depends on the specific macroeconomic situation. For example, in 2020-2021, gold is in high demand due to economic instability, which was caused by COVID-19. The price of Gold is steadily growing in the medium term, and periodically emerging local downtrends are only a natural correction of the global uptrend.Let's not forget that Gold is a limited resource despite the fact that the demand for this metal is consistently at a high level. This fact practically guarantees the continuation of the global uptrend in the long term.  Can investing in Gold protect against inflation? The downward corrections on the charts reflecting the pricing of gold can be quite long. It is not entirely correct to see investments in this metal as just a way to protect against inflation. The last 50 years suggest that it is much better to consider investments in securities (shares of companies with high capitalization, or in government bonds) to protect free funds from depreciation. In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the value of gold decreased from 500 USD to 250 USD. During the same period, the purchasing power of the US dollar also decreased by 57%. As a result, Gold not only failed to meet the expectations of investors,but also provided a serious drawdown. However, those who refused to sell gold at 250 USD per ounce today can extract superprofits, since the current value of the metal at the time of writing exceeds the mark of 1800 USD.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studySumming up a small sum, it should be said that Gold is indeed a reliable object for investing free funds, but only in the long term.  The value of Gold and geopolitics In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the United States was the absolute leader in the world. The USSR collapsed, and the PRC was not ready for an economic breakthrough. This state of affairs suited many, since American regulators dictated uniform rules of the game in the financial markets and strictly controlled them. There were enough objects for investment, both for holders of significant capital and for the middle class. The price of Gold declined during this period, as investors were offered more profitable directions.  In 2021, the situation has changed radically. There are players in the arena in the face of Russia and China and India, who are not satisfied with the model of a unipolar world. Oddly enough, but the start for the development of these states was the terrorist attacks of 2001 in the United States. From that moment on, echoes of anti-globalism began to appear in the geopolitical space. This directly affected the price of Gold, which is clearly visible on the monthly chart:Gold, 1M It is quite simple to explain this: the United States has serious competitors in the face of Russia, China and other developing countries. Competition became the main cause of economic instability, which contributed to the growth of Gold capitalization.  How can a possible "de-dollarization" affect the price of Gold? Since 2008, the United States has increasingly abused its financial position. The status of the USD as a single reserve currency does not suit many people anymore. At the moment, a number of countries are already looking for an alternative to green American bills, and the central banks of Russia and China are actively increasing the share of the yellow metal in their own reserves. In the Russian Federation, this share has already exceeded the mark of 20%. If you believe the forecasts of prominent analysts, the volume of capital investments in Gold by the central banks of a number of countries will only increase over the years. Of course, this will lead to an increase in capitalization and, consequently, to a significant increase in value.  Currency wars It is quite possible that in the foreseeable future we will be lucky to witness a real war between the currencies of different countries. This will significantly increase the volatility of financial markets and create good opportunities for effective trading. The reason for currency wars can be a strong debt burden of the world. It is known that the total GDP of all countries cannot exceed 80 trillion USD per year. At the time of writing, the global debt is estimated at $ 400 trillion, which is 5 times more than the maximum possible total GDP. By the way, the lion's share of this debt (more than 70%) lies on the shoulders of the United States.  The reason for the formation of such a debt was a loyal mortgage policy, as well as the credit system as a whole. Of course, these 400 trillion US dollars are unsecured pieces of paper. Sooner or later, this bubble will burst, which will lead to a large-scale devaluation of all world currencies. With such a development of events, the value of Gold will obviously grow at a furious pace. Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useGiffen's product Among the trading participants in the financial markets, there is such a term as a Gifen commodity. This is a conditional asset, along with an increase in the value of which the demand for it also increases. A striking example is the Apple iPhone. Fundamental changes have not been made to the device for a long time, just like in the OS, but the demand and cost of goods are only growing every year. Something similar can now be observed on the charts reflecting the dynamics of the pricing of the yellow metal. Its current value is breaking world records, while the capitalization continues to increase every month.  Is it worth buying Gold in 2021 to save and increase funds? Taking into account all the above, the answer is obvious. Yes, Gold will definitely increase in price both in the long and short term. Statistics on COVID-19 remain disappointing, new strains make vaccination an ineffective means of protection in the EU countries, and restrictive measures are still relevant in a number of countries. This crisis led to the fact that the price of Gold marked a new, absolute historical maximum at around 2121 USD per ounce. Since the cause of the crisis remains relevant, there is every reason to believe that in the foreseeable future we will see new highs on the XAU/USD pair.  In addition, other facts mentioned above allow us to confidently speak about the growth of the value of the yellow metal:The debt burden exceeds the total GDP.Central banks of developing countries are actively increasing the share of Gold in their own international reserves.he demand for Gold continues to increase among both private and institutional investors.Conclusion: in 2021, Gold is no longer just an instrument of protection against inflation. This is an asset, investments in which can significantly increase the capital.Read more: What is the devaluation of ...
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What is a gold spot contract?
Gold, mineral, What is a gold spot contract? For centuries, gold has been associated with wealth and prosperity. For centuries, gold has been an almost invariable measure of value. In the long run, gold is always growing. In addition, during periods of global economic and financial crises, only gold strengthens in value, while prices for other assets fall. Therefore, many investors prefer to experience such difficult times, having some "gold reserve" in their portfolio. Gold traditionally acts as a safe haven for savings. It is not for nothing that many institutional investors, central banks necessarily keep part of their assets in gold, and states have a safety cushion in the form of yellow precious metal reserves (gold and foreign exchange reserves).Retail investors have different opportunities to invest in gold: bullion and coins, depersonalized metal accounts in banks, futures and CFDs on gold, ETFs, shares of gold mining companies.In this article, we will consider another option for investing in the yellow metal – through the purchase of a spot contract for gold. This tool is still young and, unfortunately, is not yet available to all investors. But as the involvement of new professional market participants in this process increases, it has every chance to acquire the status of a mass one.What is a spot contract?A spot contract is a trade transaction that involves the direct sale or purchase of an asset with delivery and settlement in a short time for cash or another asset at the market price at the time of the transaction. In simple words, this is a trade transaction at a price and with the calculation "on the spot".The spot price is the current market price of an asset.A feature of the spot market is that the assets of the seller and the buyer are always available.Different asset classes are available on spot markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies and precious metals. The platforms for spot trading can be stock exchanges, commodity exchanges, cryptocurrency exchanges. However, there is also over-the-counter or off-system trading - directly between market participants.Spot contracts are one of the opportunities to invest in gold.Read more: What is a CFD?Features of the gold spot marketThe main pricing platform for gold and other precious metals on the world market is the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). London fixing is set twice a day based on quotations from the world's largest sites and exchanges and is used in most contracts for the supply of precious metals on the world market. When there is a significant price difference on individual exchanges, arbitration occurs, which balances them. The price of a spot contract for gold in the domestic market is not tied to fixing, but it closely correlates with it. The ratio of supply and demand has a great influence on prices in the domestic spot gold market. Naturally, the market situation, as well as investors' expectations about the further dynamics of the price of the "golden asset", respond to the balance of these components.Since the price is determined by supply and demand, the spread between the purchase and sale price is small.There are several commissions when buying a spot gold contract: the exchange commission and the broker's trading commission. Of course, if the broker still has a depository commission, then during the periods of transactions on the account, these costs will also be included.Pros and cons of gold spot contractsAny investment instrument has its pros and cons. The investor's task is to find a balance of these components for himself.Advantages of buying gold on the spot market:"It is much more convenient than in a bank" – there is no need to look for a bank branch where operations with precious metals are available, there is no need to worry about storing physical gold – after all, damage to bullion and coins can have an extremely negative impact on their liquidity and value, there is no need to worry about safety and security, there is no need to compare the price of gold in different banks in search of the best offer.Spot contracts are cheaper – the price is not set by the bank itself, but is made up of the ratio of supply and demand in the stock glass.Long-term investment opportunities. Unlike futures contracts, a spot contract is not time-limited. That is, you can "keep gold" in the portfolio for as long as you want and do not need to worry about transferring funds from one contract to another.The ability to combine spot and futures contracts allows experienced investors to implement different trading strategies and hedge risks.When buying gold through a spot contract, the investor does not have any problems and costs associated with storing gold, as in the case of buying bullion or gold coins.No restrictions on the purchase of gold. Through a spot contract, you can buy any amount of gold – from grams to kilograms, the restriction can only be related to the amount of supply.Read more: How Portfolio Investing WorksOf course, each tool has its own disadvantages. In the case of spot contracts , the following can be noted:Not all brokers provide access to gold exchange trading. Above, we have indicated a list of brokers that give their private clients access to operations with spot contracts for gold.The possibility of margin trading can be considered both as a plus and a minus of the instrument in the absence of knowledge of how to use it.Risks of loss of funds. Since the supply of physical metal is not provided, and the Depository does not keep records of spot contracts for gold, the only confirmation that the investor owns gold is a brokerage report. And although the clients' assets placed on a special brokerage account for precious metals are not subject to recovery for the broker's obligations, in the event of the broker's bankruptcy, the client bears great risks of losing gold, or rather money. All this suggests the need for careful selection of a broker.Binding to one broker. That is, buying and selling gold through a spot contract is possible only with one broker. Transfer of assets from one broker to another is not possible.ConclusionGold spot contract is one of the options for investing in gold, more convenient, highly liquid and profitable compared to buying gold in a bank. Perhaps it will not provide such capital growth as stocks, but as a diversification of "gold savings" it can be a worthy alternative.A reasonable investor should always remember the rules of diversification of the investment portfolio and not fall into a "gold rush" at any manifestation of the crisis in the economy. Gold cannot act as a full-fledged protective asset. Its value is volatile: during periods of crisis, it can grow, but during periods of calm and economic growth, gold usually falls in price. Only bonds can perform the protection function in an investment portfolio by 100% – they bring a fixed and previously known income.Gold can be part of an investment portfolio, but as a component of broad diversification. Only such an investment portfolio will show stable results under any economic ...
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Derivatives: what is it and how to start trading
Dow Jones, index, NASDAQ 100, index, S&P 500, index, FTSE 100, index, Gold, mineral, Derivatives: what is it and how to start trading Making a profit from financial instruments in the short, medium or long term is the main goal of any investor. Beginners prefer to use stocks and bonds, and we are usually talking about the direct purchase/sale of assets.But experienced traders often work with derivatives, the type of which is chosen based on the goals and skills of the investor. With the right approach, they allow you to make good money, with an inept one, serious monetary losses are likely.What are derivatives?Types of derivativesFuturesForwardOptionSwapFunctions of derivativesHow and where to trade derivativesChoosing a broker and opening a trading accountChoosing a derivativeAnalysis of the market situationPurchase of a contractWhat are derivatives?A derivative (derivative financial instruments) is a type of contractual contract that obliges the transaction partners to perform certain actions with the underlying asset in the future. Most often, this is the delivery of goods to a specific date at a given price on terms that do not depend on price fluctuations in the markets.The conditions prescribed in the derivatives contracts are called the specification. Holders have the right to sell the acquired derivatives, and their issuers are not always the owners of the underlying assets.Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and featuresDerivatives do not exist by themselves. These are derivative financial instruments that are inextricably linked to the value of the underlying assets, and there may be more than one of them.At the same time, the following can act as a base:Securities (Shares, ADRs, GDRs, etc.);Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc);Stock indexes (S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE100, etc.);Commodities (metals, energy carriers, agricultural products, etc.);Macroeconomic and statistical indicators (key refinancing rate, inflation, weather, etc.).The derivatives futures market operates on the same principles as the securities and commodity exchanges. Pricing in this industry follows similar principles. At the same time, the total number of contracts presented on the market and the number of underlying assets are often not related in any way.Derivatives are a rapidly developing sector of today's financial system. According to the most conservative estimates, the volume of this market is $845 trillion. (the volume of world GDP is $86.6 trillion). A number of experts claim that the volume of the derivatives market reaches $2 quadrn.The first analogues of modern derivatives originated among Babylonian merchants. In Japan in the 17th century, rice coupons became widespread, and in the UK and Holland — options for flower bulbs. The first modern derivatives were launched on the London Stock Exchange in the 1860s. And they were actively distributed in the 20s of the XX century.Types of derivativesAll derivatives (derivative financial instruments) are divided into those that are traded freely (contracts of a standardized type on exchange platforms), and contractual (agreements in the OTC sector). Let's look at the most popular types of them.Read more: What is OTC and what are its featuresFuturesFutures contracts imply delivery on a specific date of the selected underlying asset at a given price. In fact, this is a contract of sale with deferred execution. There are futures:Settlement - without the physical movement of the goods or the change of the owner of the securities, the monetary settlement takes place on the day of the expiration date;Delivery - the goods are shipped directly within the specified time.Example: by buying oil futures, you can count on the delivery of the number of barrels specified in the specification by the deadline specified in the contract. But when buying index futures, only monetary settlement is possible, there is no physical commodity.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksForwardForward contracts are concluded in the over-the-counter sector. They imply the delivery of the underlying asset at a given price by a specific date. Unlike standardized futures, they allow you to set additional conditions (quality, packaging, etc.), that is, there is still an opportunity for business maneuvers.Example: a large industrial production requires rolled metal after 5 months. According to analysts' forecasts, rental prices are expected to rise in the near future. At the moment, there are no free funds, as well as the desire to bear increased storage costs. The buyer and the supplier conclude a contract at the current price with the supply of products in the future with the payment of warranty security.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeAn example of a forward at the household level is drawing up a contract for the purchase and sale of an apartment in a house under construction or a car in a car dealership (if it is not in stock).OptionThe purchase of an option gives the right to buy or sell an asset in a given time period at a specified price. The first option is called call, the second-put. It is not necessary to execute the contract if the conditions are unfavorable for the owner (the projected price of the asset has gone in the wrong direction). It is acceptable to simply fix a loss in the amount of the option value.Example: on the stock exchange, a company's share is traded at a price of 50 dollars. The trader, having analyzed the market situation, revealed the probability of growth up to 65 dollars. He acquires a call option with the right to purchase a security at 50 dollars. with a guaranteed security of 10% (5 dollars.). When the desired price is reached within the specified period, the trader executes the option. And sells a share on the stock market already at the market price. If the forecast is not justified, it is permissible to resell the option cheaper or not to execute it, fixing a loss of 5 dollars.SwapA complex version of a futures contract, works on the principle of "2 in 1". A transaction is concluded for the purchase or sale of an asset with the simultaneous opening of a counter-directional transaction with the same asset on similar terms, but after a certain period. The main goals of using swaps are to increase the number of assets and reduce risks (hedging). The most common types of swaps are currency, commodity, credit, interest, stocks and precious metals.Read more: Swaps in the financial market. What are they and what are they given to the traderIn addition to these types of derivatives, there are other, less popular types — warrants, PCI, FRA, depositary receipts. There are also derivatives for derivatives, but investors are wary of such an instrument.Functions of derivativesDerivatives are acquired not only in order to become the owner of the underlying asset. Their functions are more diverse:Risk hedging (protection against sharp price and exchange rate fluctuations);Price arbitrage (conclusion of multidirectional transactions in several markets in order to make a profit);Tax optimization, for example, when using a stock swap, you will not have to pay a tax related to capital gains;Speculation on the price fluctuations of an asset;Reducing transaction costs;Expansion of earning opportunities through increased leverage (X100).Read more: Leverage on the stock marketHow and where to trade derivativesHow to trade derivatives:Choosing a broker.Opening a trading account and depositing funds.Choosing the type of derivative.Market analysis.Purchase of a contract.Working with futures contracts and options is similar. But there is one serious difference. Futures obliges to fulfill the conditions regardless of how the market situation develops for the owner. The option leaves the right to choose.As for the places where you can trade derivatives, ordinary investors are mainly available on exchanges where less than 20% of this type of assets are traded. Options and futures contracts are presented in the futures sections of these platforms.There are 64 exchanges working with futures in the world. One of the largest is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME (commodities and cryptocurrency).Among the cryptocurrency exchanges working with futures contracts, OKEx, BitMEX, Binance Futures, ByBit, Huobi and Deribit deserve attention (they are in the TOP 10).Read more: Overview of the Huobi Global ExchangeThe process of trading derivatives should be considered in more detail.Choosing a broker and opening a trading accountThe choice of a broker should be given maximum attention. In addition to having a direct access to the exchange platforms of interest, you should check the license. The list of licensed brokers is presented on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.It is useful to get acquainted with the reliability ratings on specialized Internet resources and reviews of real customers. After registering on the broker's website, creating a personal account, verifying your identity and installing a trading terminal (QUICK, MT4, MT5 or the broker's own developments), you need to top up your trading account.In some cases, access to the demo version (if available) is provided without making a deposit.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itChoosing a derivativeOne of the main advantages of derivatives (namely futures) is a wide range of assets. We choose the market category from the following options: indices, commodities (energy, agricultural products, etc.), interest rates (LIBOR, RUONIA, etc.), currency or securities.After that, we select the type of trading instrument (a specific type of metal, a brand of oil, etc.). The choice should be made taking into account the previous trading experience. If a trader has been working with stocks for a long time, then futures and stock swaps are among the preferred instruments.Analysis of the market situationBefore making a final purchase decision, you should analyze the market situation using fundamental and technical analysis. It is necessary to take into account everything that may affect the value of the underlying asset in the future.It is not superfluous to study the history of quotes and track the news background.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresPurchase of a contractAt the final stage, we determine the type of contract and the nuances of the specification. For example, there are 2 futures options available for gold — a standard one for 100 ounces and an e-mini (10 ounces). Having selected the necessary asset, we make a purchase request and confirm the transaction.At first glance, trading in derivatives (derivative financial instruments) seems simple and understandable.In reality, you need a lot of trading experience, a knowledge base, an understanding of the market situation, skills in analysis, risk management and the use of leverage.In the absence of proper training, it is advisable to undergo training and try out various strategies in the demo version. For beginners who do not have system knowledge, it is advisable to start with the most liquid and volatile instruments — oil futures, indices or blue-chip stocks.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their ...
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