Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
Dollar decline amid concerns about the Fed's independenceIn today's low-volume trading due to the holiday period, the US dollar came under widespread pressure, which was helped by growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve System. Investors are alarmed after statements by White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett that President Donald Trump continues to explore the possibility of removing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Despite the fact that the legal basis for such actions remains questionable and unclear, the very fact of possible political interference in the process of monetary policy formation has seriously undermined the confidence of market participants.Rising risks amid US trade policyThe escalation of the conflict between the presidential administration and the Federal Reserve is taking place against the background of the already existing uncertainty caused by Washington's aggressive trade policy. New tariff measures and retaliatory duties are exacerbating the situation: Fed officials, including Powell, have repeatedly warned that increased trade barriers could simultaneously accelerate inflation and slow down economic growth, increasing the likelihood of a stagflationary scenario. The threat of interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve increases market instability and significantly increases long-term risks for American assets.Protecting the independence of the FedJerome Powell, in turn, strongly defends the independence of the central bank. Speaking last week, he stressed: "We will never succumb to political pressure... Our independence is enshrined in law." Powell also recalled that members of the Board of Governors can be removed only on serious grounds, and not because of differences in political views. Nevertheless, the escalation of the confrontation with the White House has already cast a shadow on the reputation of key American institutions. The markets did not remain indifferent: investors began to actively withdraw capital from the dollar in favor of alternative assets.Rising demand for Euro and goldAmid falling confidence in US assets, the euro became the main beneficiary of today's trading session. With the dollar declining, investors are looking for reliable and liquid alternatives, and the euro, with its deep financial market, relative political stability, and reputable central bank, has become one of the preferred destinations. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are also holding steady, but it was the euro and gold that received the most support, which remain the main safe haven assets in the face of increased ...
USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...
EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, ...
USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...