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Gold is trying to turn against the established downward trend
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayThursday's results showed that gold is trading with a predominant growth and is trying to turn around against the established downward trend. However, the trades are more speculative in nature. During the week, market participants have been selling bank metal against the background of excessive strengthening of the US dollar due to rising inflation of the Fed's intention to fight this.Recall that US consumer prices in October increased by 6.2% compared to the same month last year. This is the maximum pace in almost 31 years. The market is closely monitoring US inflation indicators, as they are key for the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to make decisions on the further direction of monetary policy.Today, the focus was on macro data from Germany, one of the key economies of the Eurozone. A precedent has already been set for the risk of global economic growth against the background of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic. According to the final data of the Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, the German economy grew by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the previous three months. It was previously announced that GDP growth in the last quarter was 1.8%. Experts did not expect a revision of the indicator. In annual terms, Germany's GDP increased by 2.5%, as previously ...
Gold is trying to turn around
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayGold, after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of $ 1,785 per ounce, is trying to turn around. The banking metal is still very sensitive to the US dollar. The growth of inflation indicators and the appointment of Jerome Powell to the post of head of the US Federal Reserve for another term makes the US currency strengthen strongly.Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce reported that sales of new homes in October increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month and amounted to 745 thousand in terms of annual rates. According to the revised data, 742 thousand homes were sold in September, and an indicator of 800 thousand was previously named. This, in turn, serves as an additional driver in favor of strengthening the US dollar against gold.The stock market was weak on Wednesday. Western European stock markets mostly fell. Germany, after fixing a record daily incidence, is considering options for tightening anti-covid measures.According to Markit Economics, the composite Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) of 19 eurozone countries in November 2021 rose to a maximum in the last two months – 55.8 points compared to 54.2 points in October. Analysts had expected the indicator to drop to 53.2 ...
The gold exchange rate dropped sharply to $1800 on Monday
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayA new wave of strengthening of the US dollar forced bank metals to roll back to the price levels of September.Signals from foreign markets also do not please investors. Euro zone government bond yields declined on Monday due to new coronavirus restrictions in Europe, which weakened investors' appetite for risk. According to media reports, tens of thousands of people turned out to protest in Vienna after the Austrian government announced a new lockdown. At the same time, German politicians are discussing the possibility of mandatory vaccination against coronavirus and lockdown for unvaccinated people against the background of a rapid increase in the number of cases of infection and low vaccination rates.At yesterday's trading, the US dollar strengthened against the euro and the yen. Demand for the dollar, as well as other assets of the "safe haven", is growing against the background of a new wave of COVID-19 morbidity and the introduction of quarantine restrictions in Europe. In addition, the dollar was supported by statements from two representatives of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), who suggested that the regulator could accelerate the winding down of the asset repurchase program.According to the media, Fed Deputy Chairman Richard Clarida said that he would carefully evaluate the statistical data that will arrive before the December meeting. And the possibility of a faster reduction in the volume of asset repurchases will also be discussed, since the US economy is in a strong ...
Gold broke through the important support level of $1849.27 per ounce
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayThe next target in case of further sales in the support area is $1832 per ounce.Global market signals keep investors on their toes. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes fell on Friday as fears of new lockdowns to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Europe hit shares of banks, energy companies and airlines, and the rise of the technology sector pushed the Nasdaq to a record high. But still, the local growth of the index could not turn gold to further growth. The general negative of the end of the week formed a steady sell-off of the banking metal.According to media reports, in Europe, a new outbreak of COVID-19 prompted Austria to announce plans for a full lockdown, and fears that Germany could follow suit due to a new wave of the pandemic caused fluctuations in stock markets around the world.Banking sector stocks fell by about 2.6% following the decline in treasury yields, as investors bought safe bonds. The financial sector was among the worst in the S&P in terms of dynamics, falling by 1.7%.The middle of the week will be active. On Wednesday, the focus is on US GDP for the third quarter and the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits. Traditionally, world currencies paired with the US dollar will show an increase in trading activity. Gold will follow the trading dynamics of the foreign exchange ...
Gold continues to show versatile trading dynamics at the mid of November
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayTechnically, nothing has changed in the banking metal market – trading in the same range. The first target in case of strong growth is $1,876 per ounce. The area of $1849 serves as a restraining level against the decline.The US stock market ended mixed on Thursday, due to the strengthening of the consumer services, technology and healthcare sectors. The market is showing a decline against the background of negative dynamics in the sectors of telecommunications, utilities and industry. Gold speculatively failed to react to the weakness of the US stock market.A strong dollar in monthly terms and rising inflation force the banking metal to be in weekly trading frames. U.S. Treasury bond yields rose along with inflation expectations on Tuesday, after data showed that retail sales exceeded forecasts in October. The volume of retail sales in the United States in October increased by 1.7% compared to September. Analysts predicted an increase of 1.4%.Experts say that the data continue to indicate that the economy is recovering quite quickly. This, in turn, contradicts the Fed's opinion about the temporary nature of ...
Gold continues to hold at June levels
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayA medium-term upward trend has formed. The focus is on a promising target in the area of 1911 dollars. Reliable support in the area of 1830.The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose slightly on Friday and stopped at 1.570%. Such a pullback says that market participants saw the risks of lower inflation for future reporting periods from the University of Michigan. Meanwhile, the yield of 10-year UK bonds showed a similar situation and settled at 0.9220%.Trading is influenced by trends and the news background of foreign markets. The Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC) has decided to reduce the asset purchase program by $15 billion per month since November. The Bank of England announced the prospect of a tougher monetary policy. With all this, the UK's GDP and industrial indicators came out worse than forecast.Meanwhile, the two ECB governors noted that inflation in the eurozone may decline more slowly than previously thought, partly due to ongoing problems in supply chains, but the European Central Bank should not react too quickly by canceling stimulus measures.Eurozone inflation jumped above 4% in October, more than double the ECB's 2% target. All this against the background of a rapid rise in energy prices and problems with supply chains in the industrial ...
Wednesday's results showed that gold is trading with a predominant growth
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayZolto is trying to turn against an established upward trend. However, the trades are more speculative in nature. During the week, market participants have been buying a protective asset against the background of excessive inflation and the unwillingness of Central Banks to raise interest rates in the near future.In addition, gold was able to overcome the autumn resistance level around $ 1,834 per ounce. This suggests that the strength of consumer interest is at a fairly high level.US stock indexes are declining after the publication of statistical data showing a significant acceleration of inflation in the US last month. At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell by 0.60%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.82%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell by 1.66%.According to the Labor Department, U.S. consumer prices in October increased by 6.2% compared to the same month last year. This is the maximum pace in almost 31 years. The market is closely following the US inflation data, as they are key for the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to make decisions on the further direction of monetary ...
An upward trend has formed in Gold
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for todayGold continues to show positive trading dynamics. An upward trend has formed, which technically can push traders to buy further. The restraining level against the decline is the area of $1820 and $1808.Trading activity in financial markets is expected to increase today. Investors are waiting for the publication of the US and Chinese consumer price indices for October. Good American data will only strengthen the position of the US dollar against other world currencies. China's rising inflation may create pressure on gold as part of speculative trading. The change in weekly applications for unemployment benefits will add to the trading activity.Global market signals do not please investors and may push them to buy gold. The index of investors' expectations for the German economy rose to 31.7 points in November from 22.3 points in October. Analysts had expected a decline of up to 20 points. Meanwhile, the assessment of the current situation in Germany turned out to be worse than expected. The index fell to 12.5 points this month from 21.6 points in October. Experts predicted that the indicator would decrease only to 18.3 points.Meanwhile, last week, US President Joe Biden held two separate meetings with current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard. He is considering their candidacies for the post of head of the central bank next year. Personnel changes at the Fed may speculatively weaken the US ...
Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021
At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...
Is it worth investing in gold now?
Is it worth investing in Gold now?Gold is the most popular precious metal for investment. The profitability of investments in it is subject to significant fluctuations, but over the past 5 years, the precious metal has brought investors ~68% in dollars, the average annual yield was ~13.6%.What does the price of Gold depend onTraditionally, it is believed that investing in Gold protects against inflation. But in many ways, metal prices depend on supply and demand.  In the first place in terms of demand for Gold is the jewelry industry ~45%. Investments in it take ~25-30%. Purchases of gold by central banks on average amount to ~15-20%. Production accounts for ~7-10% of the total demand.  Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the current situation with supply and demandAccording to a study by GOLDHUB, the demand for gold in the first half of 2021 decreased by 10% year-on-year to 1885.2 tons. Gold production increased by 4.27% to 2307.9 tons.  What the banks say The banks' opinions on Gold prices are divided. Credit Suisse and Société Générale forecast a decline in gold prices to an average of $1,670 per ounce with a ceiling of $1,792 by the end of the year. Commerzbank and Standard Chartered are more optimistic — the banks believe that Gold prices can recover to $1834 and $1820 per ounce, respectively.Analysts' opinionThere is a surplus of Gold supply in the amount of 422.7 tons on the market. To reduce it, it is necessary that the demand for jewelry and investment increased by 20%, and production remained at the current level. But the growth of gold production by 2023 is projected to be almost 2 times.  Given the possible increase in the Fed rate by 2023 and the associated growth of the dollar, the strong growth of gold looks doubtful. It seems that the prices for precious metals in the near future will range from $1,670 to 1,820 per ounce.  The current price levels for investors look unattractive from the point of view of prospects for 12-18 months. Most likely, Gold will provide more interesting levels to buy.Read more: What does the Fed rate ...
Investing in Gold in 2021: high profit and protection from inflation or a trap for beginners?
Without exaggeration, Gold can be called one of the most popular precious metals. It is Gold that is considered to be a safe haven asset, to which funds should be transferred in the event of financial crises. However, as it turned out, in 2021, competent financial market participants were divided into 2 groups: some believe that Gold has already outlived itself, since investing in a net asset will not allow you to extract passive profit (dividends), while others are convinced that Gold is the only real money that is not afraid of inflation and other troubles of modern economic reality.It is striking that the above-mentioned opinions do not contradict each other in any way. Each of the beliefs can be considered fair. It all depends on the specific macroeconomic situation. For example, in 2020-2021, gold is in high demand due to economic instability, which was caused by COVID-19. The price of Gold is steadily growing in the medium term, and periodically emerging local downtrends are only a natural correction of the global uptrend.Let's not forget that Gold is a limited resource despite the fact that the demand for this metal is consistently at a high level. This fact practically guarantees the continuation of the global uptrend in the long term.  Can investing in Gold protect against inflation? The downward corrections on the charts reflecting the pricing of gold can be quite long. It is not entirely correct to see investments in this metal as just a way to protect against inflation. The last 50 years suggest that it is much better to consider investments in securities (shares of companies with high capitalization, or in government bonds) to protect free funds from depreciation. In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the value of gold decreased from 500 USD to 250 USD. During the same period, the purchasing power of the US dollar also decreased by 57%. As a result, Gold not only failed to meet the expectations of investors,but also provided a serious drawdown. However, those who refused to sell gold at 250 USD per ounce today can extract superprofits, since the current value of the metal at the time of writing exceeds the mark of 1800 USD.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studySumming up a small sum, it should be said that Gold is indeed a reliable object for investing free funds, but only in the long term.  The value of Gold and geopolitics In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the United States was the absolute leader in the world. The USSR collapsed, and the PRC was not ready for an economic breakthrough. This state of affairs suited many, since American regulators dictated uniform rules of the game in the financial markets and strictly controlled them. There were enough objects for investment, both for holders of significant capital and for the middle class. The price of Gold declined during this period, as investors were offered more profitable directions.  In 2021, the situation has changed radically. There are players in the arena in the face of Russia and China and India, who are not satisfied with the model of a unipolar world. Oddly enough, but the start for the development of these states was the terrorist attacks of 2001 in the United States. From that moment on, echoes of anti-globalism began to appear in the geopolitical space. This directly affected the price of Gold, which is clearly visible on the monthly chart:Gold, 1M It is quite simple to explain this: the United States has serious competitors in the face of Russia, China and other developing countries. Competition became the main cause of economic instability, which contributed to the growth of Gold capitalization.  How can a possible "de-dollarization" affect the price of Gold? Since 2008, the United States has increasingly abused its financial position. The status of the USD as a single reserve currency does not suit many people anymore. At the moment, a number of countries are already looking for an alternative to green American bills, and the central banks of Russia and China are actively increasing the share of the yellow metal in their own reserves. In the Russian Federation, this share has already exceeded the mark of 20%. If you believe the forecasts of prominent analysts, the volume of capital investments in Gold by the central banks of a number of countries will only increase over the years. Of course, this will lead to an increase in capitalization and, consequently, to a significant increase in value.  Currency wars It is quite possible that in the foreseeable future we will be lucky to witness a real war between the currencies of different countries. This will significantly increase the volatility of financial markets and create good opportunities for effective trading. The reason for currency wars can be a strong debt burden of the world. It is known that the total GDP of all countries cannot exceed 80 trillion USD per year. At the time of writing, the global debt is estimated at $ 400 trillion, which is 5 times more than the maximum possible total GDP. By the way, the lion's share of this debt (more than 70%) lies on the shoulders of the United States.  The reason for the formation of such a debt was a loyal mortgage policy, as well as the credit system as a whole. Of course, these 400 trillion US dollars are unsecured pieces of paper. Sooner or later, this bubble will burst, which will lead to a large-scale devaluation of all world currencies. With such a development of events, the value of Gold will obviously grow at a furious pace. Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useGiffen's product Among the trading participants in the financial markets, there is such a term as a Gifen commodity. This is a conditional asset, along with an increase in the value of which the demand for it also increases. A striking example is the Apple iPhone. Fundamental changes have not been made to the device for a long time, just like in the OS, but the demand and cost of goods are only growing every year. Something similar can now be observed on the charts reflecting the dynamics of the pricing of the yellow metal. Its current value is breaking world records, while the capitalization continues to increase every month.  Is it worth buying Gold in 2021 to save and increase funds? Taking into account all the above, the answer is obvious. Yes, Gold will definitely increase in price both in the long and short term. Statistics on COVID-19 remain disappointing, new strains make vaccination an ineffective means of protection in the EU countries, and restrictive measures are still relevant in a number of countries. This crisis led to the fact that the price of Gold marked a new, absolute historical maximum at around 2121 USD per ounce. Since the cause of the crisis remains relevant, there is every reason to believe that in the foreseeable future we will see new highs on the XAU/USD pair.  In addition, other facts mentioned above allow us to confidently speak about the growth of the value of the yellow metal:The debt burden exceeds the total GDP.Central banks of developing countries are actively increasing the share of Gold in their own international reserves.he demand for Gold continues to increase among both private and institutional investors.Conclusion: in 2021, Gold is no longer just an instrument of protection against inflation. This is an asset, investments in which can significantly increase the capital.Read more: What is the devaluation of ...
Derivatives: what is it and how to start trading
Making a profit from financial instruments in the short, medium or long term is the main goal of any investor. Beginners prefer to use stocks and bonds, and we are usually talking about the direct purchase/sale of assets.But experienced traders often work with derivatives, the type of which is chosen based on the goals and skills of the investor. With the right approach, they allow you to make good money, with an inept one, serious monetary losses are likely.What are derivatives?Types of derivativesFuturesForwardOptionSwapFunctions of derivativesHow and where to trade derivativesChoosing a broker and opening a trading accountChoosing a derivativeAnalysis of the market situationPurchase of a contractWhat are derivatives?A derivative (derivative financial instruments) is a type of contractual contract that obliges the transaction partners to perform certain actions with the underlying asset in the future. Most often, this is the delivery of goods to a specific date at a given price on terms that do not depend on price fluctuations in the markets.The conditions prescribed in the derivatives contracts are called the specification. Holders have the right to sell the acquired derivatives, and their issuers are not always the owners of the underlying assets.Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and featuresDerivatives do not exist by themselves. These are derivative financial instruments that are inextricably linked to the value of the underlying assets, and there may be more than one of them.At the same time, the following can act as a base:Securities (Shares, ADRs, GDRs, etc.);Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc);Stock indexes (S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE100, etc.);Commodities (metals, energy carriers, agricultural products, etc.);Macroeconomic and statistical indicators (key refinancing rate, inflation, weather, etc.).The derivatives futures market operates on the same principles as the securities and commodity exchanges. Pricing in this industry follows similar principles. At the same time, the total number of contracts presented on the market and the number of underlying assets are often not related in any way.Derivatives are a rapidly developing sector of today's financial system. According to the most conservative estimates, the volume of this market is $845 trillion. (the volume of world GDP is $86.6 trillion). A number of experts claim that the volume of the derivatives market reaches $2 quadrn.The first analogues of modern derivatives originated among Babylonian merchants. In Japan in the 17th century, rice coupons became widespread, and in the UK and Holland — options for flower bulbs. The first modern derivatives were launched on the London Stock Exchange in the 1860s. And they were actively distributed in the 20s of the XX century.Types of derivativesAll derivatives (derivative financial instruments) are divided into those that are traded freely (contracts of a standardized type on exchange platforms), and contractual (agreements in the OTC sector). Let's look at the most popular types of them.Read more: What is OTC and what are its featuresFuturesFutures contracts imply delivery on a specific date of the selected underlying asset at a given price. In fact, this is a contract of sale with deferred execution. There are futures:Settlement - without the physical movement of the goods or the change of the owner of the securities, the monetary settlement takes place on the day of the expiration date;Delivery - the goods are shipped directly within the specified time.Example: by buying oil futures, you can count on the delivery of the number of barrels specified in the specification by the deadline specified in the contract. But when buying index futures, only monetary settlement is possible, there is no physical commodity.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksForwardForward contracts are concluded in the over-the-counter sector. They imply the delivery of the underlying asset at a given price by a specific date. Unlike standardized futures, they allow you to set additional conditions (quality, packaging, etc.), that is, there is still an opportunity for business maneuvers.Example: a large industrial production requires rolled metal after 5 months. According to analysts' forecasts, rental prices are expected to rise in the near future. At the moment, there are no free funds, as well as the desire to bear increased storage costs. The buyer and the supplier conclude a contract at the current price with the supply of products in the future with the payment of warranty security.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeAn example of a forward at the household level is drawing up a contract for the purchase and sale of an apartment in a house under construction or a car in a car dealership (if it is not in stock).OptionThe purchase of an option gives the right to buy or sell an asset in a given time period at a specified price. The first option is called call, the second-put. It is not necessary to execute the contract if the conditions are unfavorable for the owner (the projected price of the asset has gone in the wrong direction). It is acceptable to simply fix a loss in the amount of the option value.Example: on the stock exchange, a company's share is traded at a price of 50 dollars. The trader, having analyzed the market situation, revealed the probability of growth up to 65 dollars. He acquires a call option with the right to purchase a security at 50 dollars. with a guaranteed security of 10% (5 dollars.). When the desired price is reached within the specified period, the trader executes the option. And sells a share on the stock market already at the market price. If the forecast is not justified, it is permissible to resell the option cheaper or not to execute it, fixing a loss of 5 dollars.SwapA complex version of a futures contract, works on the principle of "2 in 1". A transaction is concluded for the purchase or sale of an asset with the simultaneous opening of a counter-directional transaction with the same asset on similar terms, but after a certain period. The main goals of using swaps are to increase the number of assets and reduce risks (hedging). The most common types of swaps are currency, commodity, credit, interest, stocks and precious metals.Read more: Swaps in the financial market. What are they and what are they given to the traderIn addition to these types of derivatives, there are other, less popular types — warrants, PCI, FRA, depositary receipts. There are also derivatives for derivatives, but investors are wary of such an instrument.Functions of derivativesDerivatives are acquired not only in order to become the owner of the underlying asset. Their functions are more diverse:Risk hedging (protection against sharp price and exchange rate fluctuations);Price arbitrage (conclusion of multidirectional transactions in several markets in order to make a profit);Tax optimization, for example, when using a stock swap, you will not have to pay a tax related to capital gains;Speculation on the price fluctuations of an asset;Reducing transaction costs;Expansion of earning opportunities through increased leverage (X100).Read more: Leverage on the stock marketHow and where to trade derivativesHow to trade derivatives:Choosing a broker.Opening a trading account and depositing funds.Choosing the type of derivative.Market analysis.Purchase of a contract.Working with futures contracts and options is similar. But there is one serious difference. Futures obliges to fulfill the conditions regardless of how the market situation develops for the owner. The option leaves the right to choose.As for the places where you can trade derivatives, ordinary investors are mainly available on exchanges where less than 20% of this type of assets are traded. Options and futures contracts are presented in the futures sections of these platforms.There are 64 exchanges working with futures in the world. One of the largest is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME (commodities and cryptocurrency).Among the cryptocurrency exchanges working with futures contracts, OKEx, BitMEX, Binance Futures, ByBit, Huobi and Deribit deserve attention (they are in the TOP 10).Read more: Overview of the Huobi Global ExchangeThe process of trading derivatives should be considered in more detail.Choosing a broker and opening a trading accountThe choice of a broker should be given maximum attention. In addition to having a direct access to the exchange platforms of interest, you should check the license. The list of licensed brokers is presented on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.It is useful to get acquainted with the reliability ratings on specialized Internet resources and reviews of real customers. After registering on the broker's website, creating a personal account, verifying your identity and installing a trading terminal (QUICK, MT4, MT5 or the broker's own developments), you need to top up your trading account.In some cases, access to the demo version (if available) is provided without making a deposit.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itChoosing a derivativeOne of the main advantages of derivatives (namely futures) is a wide range of assets. We choose the market category from the following options: indices, commodities (energy, agricultural products, etc.), interest rates (LIBOR, RUONIA, etc.), currency or securities.After that, we select the type of trading instrument (a specific type of metal, a brand of oil, etc.). The choice should be made taking into account the previous trading experience. If a trader has been working with stocks for a long time, then futures and stock swaps are among the preferred instruments.Analysis of the market situationBefore making a final purchase decision, you should analyze the market situation using fundamental and technical analysis. It is necessary to take into account everything that may affect the value of the underlying asset in the future.It is not superfluous to study the history of quotes and track the news background.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresPurchase of a contractAt the final stage, we determine the type of contract and the nuances of the specification. For example, there are 2 futures options available for gold — a standard one for 100 ounces and an e-mini (10 ounces). Having selected the necessary asset, we make a purchase request and confirm the transaction.At first glance, trading in derivatives (derivative financial instruments) seems simple and understandable.In reality, you need a lot of trading experience, a knowledge base, an understanding of the market situation, skills in analysis, risk management and the use of leverage.In the absence of proper training, it is advisable to undergo training and try out various strategies in the demo version. For beginners who do not have system knowledge, it is advisable to start with the most liquid and volatile instruments — oil futures, indices or blue-chip stocks.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their ...
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