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Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, EUR/USD, gold and crude oil on Wednesday, March 13
EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, EUR/USD, gold and crude oil on Wednesday, March 13 EUR/USD: the currency pair exceeds the key level of 1.0880–1.0710During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to fluctuate around the 1.0925 mark, maintaining the likelihood of an uptrend extension against the background of fresh economic data from Europe.The February consumer price index in Germany confirmed expectations, rising by 0.4%, which contributed to the anticipated correction of the annual index from 2.9% to 2.5%, bringing it closer to the 2% threshold desired by the European Central Bank. Its harmonized analogue grew by 0.6% over the month and by 2.7% over the year, in line with forecasts and previous indicators. It is expected that data on industrial production in the eurozone will be released today at noon GMT, forecasts for which foreshadow a decline in the indicator to -2.8% on an annual basis and to -1.4% for the month, which may have an impact on the euro.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1060.Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0750.NZD/USD: sales via e-cards in New Zealand fell by 1.8% in FebruaryThe NZD/USD trading instrument makes a correction near the indicator 0.6161 after the publication of negative economic statistics from New Zealand.Report Stats.nz He pointed to a decrease in retail sales through electronic cards in February by 1.8%, which is equivalent to a decrease of NZ$ 120 million, and in key sectors of the economy by 1.4% or NZ $83 million. The decline was noted in such categories as fuel costs (-3.7%), clothing purchases (-1.5%), purchase of durable goods (-0.9%), consumables (-0.9%) and vehicles (-0.3%). At the same time, the annual sales figure increased by 2.5%. Additional support for the currency pair was provided by data from China, where the consumer goods price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in February, exceeding analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.6180, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6130, 0.6050.Gold market analysisGold is near the 2160.0 mark, waiting for new incentives to move. Currently, the correction is taking place against the background of the realization of profits on long positions after the breakout of the resistance level of 2100.0.The influence of global factors indicates the likelihood of an uptrend continuing. Despite the soft position of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed in Congress on interest rates, the rate cut has not yet begun. The forecasting tool of the US Federal Reserve System from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME FedWatch Tool) shows that the probability of maintaining the current rate at the March meeting reaches 99.0%, leaving the dollar without significant support. The situation on the government bond market also has a positive effect on gold prices, where the yield on ten-year bonds fell to 4.148% from 4.283% last week.Resistance levels: 2180.0, 2240.0.Support levels: 2130.0, 2080.0.Crude Oil market analyticsWTI Crude Oil quotes are at the level of 77.88, expecting a possible continuation of the downward trend after the US Department of Energy adjusted its forecasts for oil production, anticipating an increase in production by 80.0 thousand barrels per day to 13.19 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on the cost of energy resources. US data also indicate an increase in inflation in February from 0.3% to 0.4%, with the benchmark index at 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%. This could force the US Federal Reserve to postpone an interest rate adjustment, potentially having a negative impact on oil prices.However, optimism in the market is supported by the monthly OPEC report, which forecasts an increase in oil demand this year by 2.25 million barrels per day and next year by 1.85 million barrels per day. Additional support comes from a reduction in reserves in the United States, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), with a decrease of -5.521 million barrels, exceeding experts' forecasts.Taking into account these conditions, the current stability of oil prices in the range of 79.62–77.64 is maintained until new factors appear that may make adjustments to the movement of market prices.Resistance levels: 77.64, 79.62, 83.50.Support levels: 75.60, 72.11, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Tuesday, March 12
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Tuesday, March 12 NZD/USD: the currency pair is waiting for new impulses to moveThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing stability near the 0.6170 level, in anticipation of important economic data that will indicate the future direction of movement. Inflation information for February is expected to be published in the United States today at 14:30 GMT. The core consumer price index is projected to slow slightly from 3.9% to 3.7% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, while the overall index should remain unchanged at 3.1%.Meanwhile, New Zealand's recent economic indicators do not significantly affect the pair's movement at the moment. February retail sales through e-cards fell by 1.8% after a previous increase of 2.0% (adjusted from 1.7%), although the annual growth rate accelerated from 1.6% to 2.5%. Karen Silk, a representative of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, stressed the consistency of the regulator's messages to the market during recent meetings on raising the cost of borrowed funds. The annual swap rate experienced a correction of almost 50 basis points during this time, reflecting the reaction of traders to changes in economic activity and subsequent data on inflation and the labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6183, 0.6200, 0.6217, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6076.USD/JPY: Japan's economic growth exceeded experts' forecastsDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows growth, trading at 147.46, correcting after a recent drop to the lowest values since February 2. The yen's position has not improved, even despite the optimistic macroeconomic statistics.In the fourth quarter, Japan's gross domestic product grew by 0.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 0.1% decline. This provided an annual GDP growth of 0.4%, against an expected decrease of 0.4%. The GDP deflator increased by 3.9%, and capital expenditures showed an increase of 2.0%. The price index for corporate goods rose 0.2% in February, strengthening the annual index by 0.6% compared to February last year.However, the yen is being held back by the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, who stressed the recovery of the country's economy, despite some signs of deterioration in the situation. Expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Japan remain high ahead of the upcoming meeting, where market participants are looking for indications of a possible transition to a stricter policy this month.Resistance levels: 148.30, 150.80.Support levels: 146.40, 144.10.Gold market analysisGold is losing a little in value, moving away from its recent records reached last week, when the price peaked at 2200.00. Currently, trading is taking place around the level of 2178.00, and the market is in anticipation of new signals.Investors' main attention is focused on February inflation data from the United States. The core consumer price index is expected to slow down from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year, and decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Such a slowdown may reinforce expectations regarding the start of a review of borrowing rates by the Federal Reserve as early as June, which will potentially enhance the attractiveness of gold as an investment asset. On Thursday, data on industrial inflation and unemployment statistics are also expected to be published at 14:30 GMT. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending March 8 is projected to increase slightly from 217,000 to 218,000.Resistance levels: 2195.12, 2215.00, 2230.00, 2245.00.Support levels: 2164.68, 2150.00, 2134.09, 2120.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring morning trading in Asia, Brent prices showed fluctuations around $82 per barrel, continuing to recover from the recent drop. The market is closely following the American economic reports, waiting for new data.Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about a decline in global oil demand, market sentiment remains mixed. Unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are increasing risks in the energy sector.According to analysts, there is a significant discrepancy in the forecasts of the International Energy Agency and OPEC regarding future oil demand, which creates additional uncertainty in the market. According to Reuters, the difference in estimates between the two organizations has reached a record, highlighting the different views on the long-term prospects of the oil market and the transition to alternative energy sources.Resistance levels: 82.00, 82.40, 83.14, 84.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 79.12, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold and oil on Wednesday, March 6
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold and oil on Wednesday, March 6 EUR/USD: strong business activity in the European Economic Area supported the pairThe EUR/USD trading instrument shows a moderate upward correction, pushed by optimistic economic reports from the European Union.The index of activity in the service sector of the Spanish economy jumped from 52.1 to 54.7 points in February, while in Italy it increased from 51.2 to 52.2 points. The indicators of France and Germany also showed improvement, reaching 48.4 and 48.3 points, respectively, which allowed the pan-European index to exceed the threshold of 50 points for the first time in many months, reaching 50.2 points. Today, data on retail sales in the EU for January is expected to be published, with a projected decline to -1.3% year-on-year and an increase to 0.1% month-on-month. Of great interest will be the outcome of the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday, at which the interest rate is expected to remain at 4.5%. Forecasts and comments on the results of the ECB meeting will be in the spotlight, with a projected 88% probability of a rate hike in June.Resistance levels: 1.0880, 1.0990.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0710.GBP/USD: growth attempts did not lead to stability at the peaks of FebruaryThe GBP/USD currency pair is showing mixed trends, approaching the key resistance boundary at 1.2700. The pound's previous efforts to overcome this barrier and update the peak values of early February were met with an inability to maintain the positions achieved.Investors are being cautious, deciding to take profits ahead of statements by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell before Congress. His remarks are expected to support the current policy line and do not portend an accelerated reduction in interest rates this year. At the same time, fresh macroeconomic information from the United States had an impact on the weakness of the dollar. The ISM index of business activity in the service sector showed a decline from 53.4 to 52.6 points against the predicted 53 points, while the S&P Global equivalent increased from 51.3 to 52.3 points. Data on orders in the manufacturing sector for January marked a decrease of 3.6%, surpassing the expected drop of 2.9%. The IBD/TIPP economic optimism index decreased from 44 to 43.5 points in March, falling short of the projected 45.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD trading instrument has demonstrated an active increase in value since the middle of the previous month, yesterday reaching peak values for the year at 2140.62 (Murray level [+1/8]), however, today there is a correction of some recent acquisitions.The steady rise in prices is due to two key drivers: the increasing international geopolitical situation and the anticipation of changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve System. In particular, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began last year, led to an increase in the value of gold by over $ 300 per ounce. With a low probability of a quick resolution of the situation, investors continue to consider precious metals as a reliable asset to preserve capital. At the same time, the increasing expectation of a change in the Fed's exchange rate to a softer policy contributes to the weakening of the US dollar. Despite the fact that representatives of the central bank note a steadily high level of inflation with the risks of its further acceleration against the backdrop of a recovering economy and labor market, experts foresee a possible decision to change interest rates by the summer of this year.Resistance levels: 2156.25, 2187.50.Support levels: 2125.00, 2093.75, 2031.25.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of WTI Crude Oil demonstrates stability within the framework of a sideways movement at the level of 78.84, being influenced by geopolitical events in the Red Sea region. Since the beginning of March, there have been several incidents related to Houthi attacks on international vessels, which creates difficulties for the smooth transportation of petroleum products. Missile strikes on MSC Sky and MSC Sky II ships are known, which confirms the ongoing risks in the field of maritime transportation.Against this background, there is an increase in activity in the oil market: over the past week, the volume of trading in WTI crude oil on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased, reaching an average of 945 thousand contracts, which is significantly higher than at the end of the previous month. At the same time, investor interest remains at a high level with the total volume of open transactions at 1.6 million, which indicates the growing investment attractiveness of this commodity asset and helps to maintain its value at current levels.Resistance levels: 78.80, 83.00.Support levels: 76.30, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and gold on Monday, March 4
USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and gold on Monday, March 4 NZD/USD: consumer confidence from ANZ exceeded analytical forecastsThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, retreating after Friday's rise, when it managed to move away from the minimum values on February 14, now testing the 0.6100 level for a possible further decline. Traders are being cautious, waiting for new incentives for market movement.The latest economic reports from New Zealand and Australia have attracted the attention of investors. The New Zealand trading Conditions report for the fourth quarter showed an unexpected drop of 7.8%, which is significantly worse than the previous indicator and analysts' forecasts. Data came from Australia on a decrease in inflation to 4.0% per annum in February, confirming the weakening of inflationary pressure.The market is also digesting the latest statistics, including an increase in the New Zealand consumer confidence index from ANZ to 94.5 points and a marked decrease in the number of building permits in the country. Despite some positive changes in services and the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector continues to experience difficulties. Experts note the increased investment interest in most industries and assume an increase in business costs in the next three years.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6076, 0.6049, 0.6030, 0.6000.USD/CHF: movement within the uptrend 0.8890–0.8750Given the stable position of the US dollar and the absence of influential economic reports from Switzerland, the USD/CHF pair continues to move in a corrective trend, being at the level of 0.8833.The latest data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on retail sales for January showed a seasonally adjusted growth of 0.3% year-on-year and an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous month. The food and beverage sector is showing growth of 0.3%, while volumes in the non-food segment increased by 1.3%. Investors' attention was also attracted by the business activity index from procure.ch , which tracks the dynamics in the manufacturing sector and is a key indicator for assessing the country's economic climate. This index gained 44.0 points, which contributed to the strengthening of the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.8870, 0.8980.Support levels: 0.8780, 0.8690.USD/JPY: investors' expectations regarding the correction of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan in AprilThe USD/JPY currency pair showed moderate growth, continuing to follow the upward trend set at the end of last week. The currency pair is checking the 150.25 level for the possibility of an upward breakout, while market participants are carefully analyzing the latest economic reports from the United States and Japan. The results from the United States disappointed, showing a decrease in the ISM manufacturing activity index to 47.8 points from the previous 49.1, which was below analysts' expectations. At the same time, data from S&P Global indicated an increase in the index to 52.2 points, exceeding forecasts.Japan presented mixed economic indicators, among which it is worth highlighting the stability of the Jibun Bank manufacturing activity index and the improvement in the consumer confidence index to 39.1 points. There was also a slight decrease in the unemployment rate and the maintenance of a high ratio of vacancies to the number of applicants. The new head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, called for caution in assessing the achievement of the inflation target and stressed the importance of upcoming wage data and negotiations with trade unions for future interest rate decisions. Given that inflation in Japan has been above 2% for more than a year, the market expects the Central Bank to end its policy of ultra-soft conditions by April, possibly raising rates from the current level of -0.10%.Resistance levels: 150.50, 151.00, 151.50, 152.00.Support levels: 150.00, 149.50, 148.89, 148.00.Gold price analysisThe XAU/USD pair is seeing a slight decline, stabilizing near the 2080.00 indicator and retreating from the recently reached peak values for December 4. A significant jump in value was noted last Friday, triggered by the release of US economic reports and an increase in interest in buying physical gold from global central banks.Analysts also highlighted a decrease in consumer confidence in February, which reinforced speculation about the possible introduction of measures to reduce the cost of borrowing by the Federal Reserve in the near future. The consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan fell from 79.6 to 76.9 points, which was below analysts' expectations. In parallel, the index of activity in the manufacturing sector, provided by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed a drop from 49.1 to 47.8 points, against the projected 49.5 points. Data on construction spending in January also indicated a 0.2% decrease after a significant 1.1% increase a month earlier, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% increase.On Tuesday, markets will expect the publication of a report on business activity in the service sector from ISM, and on Wednesday, March 6, attention will switch to private sector employment data from ADP, as well as the monthly economic survey of the US Federal Reserve, known as the "Beige Book".Resistance levels: 2088.27, 2100.00, 2120.00, 2134.09.Support levels: 2065.00, 2050.00, 2039.21, ...
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Articles about financial markets

Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023
Gold, mineral, Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023 Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
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Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
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Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021
Gold, mineral, Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021 At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...
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