NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, ...
EUR/USD: US economic data strengthens dollarDuring the Asian session on January 6, the EUR/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading near the 1.0309 mark, which is 0.67% lower than the previous session.There is a slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone. The business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector dropped to 47.5 in December, indicating a reduction in activity. The consumer price index (CPI) in November showed an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, which is below the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The unemployment rate in the eurozone remains stable at 7.5%. Representatives of the ECB declare their readiness to take additional incentive measures in case of further deterioration of economic indicators.The U.S. economy is showing steady growth. GDP in the third quarter increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The consumer confidence index rose to 98.3 in December, reflecting consumer optimism. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, which is in line with the target level of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is the lowest level in recent decades. The Fed is signaling that the current monetary policy may remain unchanged in the near future. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may support the dollar's position.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0440.Support levels: 1.0260, 1.0170.GBP/USD: tax measures weaken the pound's positionDuring the morning trading on January 6, the GBP/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading around 1.2422, which is 0.31% higher than in the previous session.The British economy is facing a number of challenges. According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 55% of companies plan to raise prices in the coming months due to rising labor costs and taxes, especially increased employer national insurance contributions, which is the highest rate since 2017. Business confidence has declined: only 49% expect sales growth next year, and almost a quarter have reduced investments. Inflation reached 2.6% in November 2024.In addition, the tax increases introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the amount of 40 billion pounds have led to a decrease in business confidence to a level not seen since 2022. Only 49% of the surveyed companies expect revenue growth next year. Despite this, the KPMG report forecasts UK economic growth of 1.7% in 2025 due to lower interest rates and increased government spending. However, tax increases and rising national insurance contributions can have a negative impact on business, and many companies plan to raise prices and reduce investments.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300.USD/CHF: forecasts for the SNB restrain the strengthening of the francDuring the morning session on January 6, the USD/CHF currency pair was trading around 0.9115, showing a weak upward trend. Over the past 24 hours, the Swiss franc has slightly lost ground, the pair added 0.34% to the previous close.The economic situation in Switzerland remains stable, despite the decline in global demand for the country's exports. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index (CPI) for December 2024 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 1.4% year-on-year, which is within the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The KOF business confidence index fell to 98.6 points in December from 99.4 in November, indicating a decrease in optimism among enterprises. However, the unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at 1.9%, indicating continued high employment.At the last meeting of the Swiss National Bank, the regulator left the key interest rate at -0.75%, citing the need to maintain the competitiveness of Swiss exports. SNB President Thomas Jordan said the central bank would continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to avoid excessive appreciation of the franc. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on gold reserves in the SNB is expected to be published, which may have an additional impact on the franc quotes. Despite strong macroeconomic indicators, the Swiss franc faces external risks. Weak demand for European goods is having an impact, which negatively affects the export-oriented sectors of the Swiss economy. Moreover, investors are assessing the risks of a slowdown in global economic growth, which may limit the franc's strengthening in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9050.Gold market analysisDuring the morning trading on January 6, gold quotes showed a slight decrease, trading around $2,639 per troy ounce, which is 0.79% less than in the previous session.According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2024, the price of gold reached a historic high, exceeding the mark of $2,800 per ounce. Analysts predict that in 2025, gold prices will continue to show positive dynamics, but the growth will be less significant. Demand for gold from central banks remains high, which supports the prices of the precious metal. In particular, for the first time in history, Russia's gold reserves exceeded $200 billion, and the share of gold in gold and foreign exchange reserves was 32.9%. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today. Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may affect the dynamics of gold prices.According to forecasts, gold prices may reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, despite short-term fluctuations. However, some experts urge investors to remain moderately optimistic, especially during the first half of 2025. In addition, spot gold is expected to convert the $2,629 level from resistance to key support, which could contribute to further price gains. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), data on the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone will be published. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at 2.0% year-on-year, which may have an impact on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,650, $2,670.Support levels: $2,620, ...
USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, ...
USD/CHF: breakout of 0.8920 will open the way to July peaksLast week, the USD/CHF pair tested the support level of 0.8755 during the correction, after which it began a reversal and is trying to develop an upward momentum.The US currency was supported by positive macroeconomic data: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased from 36.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand in November, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts of 202.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is better than expectations of 0.3%. These indicators strengthen the likelihood of a more cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve to further monetary policy easing.The Swiss franc weakened its position after the publication of inflation data for November. The consumer price index for the month decreased by 0.1%, and in annual terms it was fixed at 0.7%, which turned out to be lower than the projected 0.8%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank may continue to ease monetary policy. The head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, previously announced his readiness to consider the possibility of reducing the interest rate to negative values in order to reduce the attractiveness of the franc as a safe haven asset.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/JPY: Japan's GDP data surpassed forecastsThe USD/JPY pair shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining around the 149.85 mark. The main attention of market participants is focused on macroeconomic data from Japan, which, despite its positive nature, does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the asset.In the third quarter, the Japanese economy showed GDP growth from 0.2% to 0.3% in quarterly terms and from 0.9% to 1.2% annually. However, the GDP deflator slowed from 2.6% to 2.4%, indicating a decrease in inflation expectations, which may complicate the tasks of the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. Business activity indicators also turned out to be higher than expected: the Eco Watchers current situation index rose from 47.5 points to 49.4 points, and the forecast for the development of events reached a similar value, exceeding the previous result of 48.3 points.The data released on Friday turned out to be mixed. The index of leading indicators decreased from 108.9 to 108.6 points, while the index of matching indicators strengthened to 116.5 points. Household spending fell by 1.3% in October, which is better than the projected decline of 2.6%. At the same time, wage growth accelerated to 2.6%, raising expectations about inflation. Against this background, Toyoaki Nakamura, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, stressed the need to take into account the dynamics of salaries and business sentiment of Tankan when making decisions on possible changes in interest rates. Market participants took these statements as a "hawkish" signal, which was reflected in the growth in the yield of 10-year bonds, which increased to 1.065%.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 151.50, 152.22.Support levels: 149.35, 148.64, 148.00, 147.00.Gold market analysisGold shows a smooth decline, falling back to the level of 2640.00 and testing it for a breakdown downwards. Despite the limited number of factors that can radically change the situation in the market, investor activity remains high, which is due to the analysis of Friday's data on the American labor market.Recall that in November, the US economy created 227.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which significantly exceeds the revised October figures of 36.0 thousand (previously 12.0 thousand) and analysts' forecasts of 200.0 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while the average hourly wage remained at 4.0% year-on-year, higher than the forecast of 3.9%, and amounted to 0.4% month-on-month with expectations of 0.3%. Although the data cannot be called unambiguously positive, market participants regarded them as a signal of a possible continuation of the easing of the Federal Reserve's policy at the December meeting.According to the latest data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in December rose to 87.0%, whereas a week ago it did not exceed 70.0%. An additional confirmation of positive expectations was the growth of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 71.8 points in November to 74.0 points in December, which turned out to be higher than both the results of the previous month and preliminary forecasts of 73.0 points.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00, 2589.61.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are approaching the 67.00 mark, maintaining a downward trend in the global market. This movement is due to the expectations of market participants that OPEC+ will extend the current restrictions on oil production for another three months.The decision to maintain the cuts is related to the cartel's desire to avoid instability in the winter. During this time, the organization's member countries plan to resolve issues related to incomplete fulfillment of obligations, after which the situation with global demand, especially from China, will become clearer. Experts note that the slowdown in China's economic growth this year has had a negative impact on energy consumption. In addition, the country's gradual transition to electric cars continues to reduce demand for traditional hydrocarbons.This week, the attention of market participants will be focused on data on oil reserves. According to forecasts, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) will indicate an increase in reserves by 1,232 million barrels, as it was a week earlier, and statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will show an increase of 1,400 million barrels, which will be a noticeable contrast after a decrease of 5,073 million barrels in the previous period.Resistance levels: 68.10, 71.80.Support levels: 66.50, ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...