Trading signals and online forecasts Gold

EUR/USD: euro is gaining ground, exiting the local decline zoneThe EUR/USD pair shows an uncertain movement, consolidating near the level of 1.0860. At the beginning of the week, market activity remains low, as there are almost no macroeconomic publications, and investors are focused on discussing possible changes in US monetary policy in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections. Market participants expect that the policy of high interest rates may be continued, and trade tensions between the United States and the Eurozone may escalate again. This may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to take measures to keep the euro low in order to preserve the region's competitive advantages.At the same time, the ECB is expected to gradually lower interest rates regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. Last week, the European regulator reduced the rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.40%, due to a slowdown in economic growth. In September, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, while the monthly indicator remained at -0.1%, as in the previous month. The main inflation indicator also remained at 2.7% per annum and 0.1% per month.Resistance levels: 1.0871, 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pound is waiting for new impulses amid uncertaintyThe GBP/USD pair shows weak activity, holding near the 1.3040 level: the bulls maintain the upward trend that formed at the end of the previous week, but are waiting for new factors that can stimulate movement this week. Last Friday, the pound was supported by published retail sales data for September: the indicator accelerated from 2.3% to 3.9% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, sales decreased from 1.0% to 0.3%, which was higher than the expected -0.3%. Sales excluding fuel also increased from 2.2% to 4.0%, ahead of the 3.2% forecast.At the beginning of the week, fresh data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd put pressure on the pound. In October, the index slowed from 1.2% to 1.0% in annual terms, and from 0.8% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, which reduces inflation expectations.Representatives of the Bank of England, including its head Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow. It is predicted that officials may support further rate cuts, given the slowdown in inflation and the softening of the policy of competitors — the Fed and the ECB.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860.USD/CHF: US dollar weakness persistsDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair remains in a state of consolidation, holding at 0.8648. The reason for this is the weak activity in the market, as traders are waiting for the appearance of fresh catalysts.On Tuesday, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond will be released, and representative of the Federal Open Market Committee Patrick Harker will also speak. According to expectations, Harker may express support for further reduction of the key interest rate. However, the impact of these statements on the exchange rate will be limited, as data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 85% probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points at the Fed's November meeting. The upcoming US presidential election remains a more significant factor, which increases market uncertainty. If Donald Trump wins, analysts predict a tightening of rhetoric in monetary policy and a possible strengthening of trade restrictions.Meanwhile, in Switzerland, September data showed an increase in exports from 20.65 billion to 22.53 billion francs, as well as an increase in imports from 15.90 billion to 17.58 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus increased to 4.95 billion francs from the previous value of 4.74 billion francs.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8641, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.Gold Market analysisAs of October 21, gold is showing growth, trading around $2.657 per ounce, which is 0.91% more than in the previous session. Investors are showing interest in gold amid the current global uncertainty and increasing demand for protective assets. The positive dynamics is supported by the weakening of the US dollar, as well as increased geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States remains difficult, which has an impact on the gold market. Recent data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a decrease from 1.9 to -4.6 points, which increased expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. In addition, according to the instruments of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of the Fed's interest rate adjustment at the upcoming meeting is estimated at more than 85%.In Europe, despite the slowdown in inflation to 1.7% in annual terms, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to hold interest rates at 3.40%, which adds pressure on the euro and supports demand for gold as an alternative asset.Resistance levels: 2670, 2685.Support levels: 2645, ...

EUR/TRY: euro is strengthening amid the weak economic situation in TurkeyThe EUR/TRY pair is trading at 37.71 as of October 8, which is 0.66% lower compared to the previous trading session. The instrument shows a decrease against the background of weak economic data from Turkey and increased volatility in global markets. Market participants are assessing the impact of the current macroeconomic situation, including changes in inflation and monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank.The economic situation in Turkey remains tense, given the high inflation rates and the weakness of the national currency. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in September was 61.5%, which continues to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population and investor confidence in the lira. The central bank of Turkey recently raised the interest rate to 35% in order to combat inflation, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, who had predicted a level of 30-32%. However, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the stability of the Turkish economy remains in question amid political uncertainty and lack of investor confidence in the effectiveness of current measures.The situation in the eurozone also has an impact on the EUR/TRY pair. The latest data on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, which confirms a gradual decrease in price pressure in the region. At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for September showed a value of 49.1 points, which remains below the level of 50, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions and, most likely, will not take decisive measures to reduce the rate until the end of the year, which also affects the exchange rate dynamics of the pair.Resistance levels: 38.12, 38.50.Support levels: 37.50, 37.00.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan will keep its tough rhetoric until DecemberThe USD/JPY pair shows restrained dynamics, remaining near the level of 148.00. The day before, the instrument declined moderately, retreating from the local highs set on August 16. This movement became a natural correction after the significant strengthening of the US dollar last week.While the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have begun to ease their monetary policies after aggressive tightening cycles to curb inflation, the BOJ's approach remains contrasting. Japan has been struggling with deflation and economic stagnation for a long time. In the second quarter, the national economy showed signs of recovery, helped by an increase in consumer and business spending. In August, core inflation reached 2.8%, rising for the fourth month in a row, and real wages have been rising for two months in a row, which boosted domestic consumption. As a result, companies have begun to shift the increased labor costs, which may create conditions for further rate increases. However, the Bank of Japan warned that many small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties, unable to provide sufficient profits to index salaries. Analysts do not expect the regulator to raise the rate at the October meeting, but the probability of such a move in December increases, provided that stable economic indicators remain.Today, the market's attention is focused on data from Japan. In August, wage growth slowed to 3.0% from the previous 3.4%, while a decrease to 3.1% was expected. Household spending decreased by 1.9%, while in July the indicator increased by 0.1%, against the forecast of -2.6%. The index of the current situation from Eco Watchers in September decreased from 49.0 to 47.8 points, and the index of forecasts — from 50.3 to 49.7 points.Resistance levels: 148.21, 149.50, 150.50, 151.50.Support levels: 147.00, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2640.00. Market activity remains moderate as investors continue to analyze the September report on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday.The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, compared with the previous growth of 159.0 thousand, while expectations were at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, which is higher than the forecast of 3.8%, while the monthly change showed a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.4%, which is slightly higher than expectations of 0.3%. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. In general, these data confirm the stability of the American economy, allowing the Federal Reserve System to take its time with further monetary policy easing. At the same time, the market assumes that the Fed may cut the rate by 25 basis points in November and December of this year.Additionally, the demand for gold is supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory, the country's military and political leadership promised retaliatory actions. This has increased tensions in the region and contributes to maintaining XAU/USD quotes at current levels.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2640.00, 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00.Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, Brent crude oil prices are showing a pullback from the maximum reached on August 13 at 81.00, and are testing the 79.35 level for a downward breakdown in anticipation of new drivers for further movement.Today, information from China put pressure on the quotes. At the briefing of the State Committee for Development and Reform (NDRC), investors did not receive specific incentives and support measures. Representatives of the committee expressed confidence that the country's economy will continue to recover and achieve its goals. However, the lack of concrete steps raised doubts among market participants about the sustainability of the current rally, as many expected more detailed actions from Beijing.Prior to that, oil prices recovered at the fastest pace in the last two years, amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts at Clearview Energy Partners LLC presented several possible scenarios in an interview with Bloomberg. In the event of the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and its allies for missile attacks on Israel, oil may rise in price by $ 7.0 per barrel. In the case of retaliatory actions with damage to Iranian energy facilities, prices may rise by another $13.0. In addition, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — the most important route for transporting about 30% of the world's raw materials — the cost is expected to rise to $ 13.0–$28.0 per barrel.Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.14.Support levels: 79.00, 77.86, 77.00, ...

USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, ...

EUR/USD: flat amid expectations of September inflation in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair is showing a recovery after yesterday's decline, when quotes updated local lows from September 24. At the moment, the pair is testing the 1.1140 level, trying to break it up, amid expectations of the publication of key macroeconomic data.Analysts' forecasts remain restrained: the index of business activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector from S&P Global is likely to remain at 44.8 points, and the German index may remain at 40.3 points. Inflation data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2). Annual price growth is projected to slow from 2.2% to 1.9%, while core inflation, excluding volatile components, is likely to remain at 2.8%. Falling inflation may become an additional argument in favor of easing the ECB's monetary policy, and it is predicted that the bank may reduce the interest rate by 0.25% next month. Previously, it was thought that the regulator would wait until December, but the latest data may accelerate its actions.Against the background of German data published yesterday, it became known that the consumer price index decreased from 1.9% to 1.6% in annual terms, and monthly inflation remained at 0.0%, which somewhat disappointed market expectations. At the same time, in the United States, the Chicago business activity index rose to 46.6 points, although it remained below 50, indicating a slowdown in growth.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: the former head of the Bank of England pointed to the reason for the increase in inflationThe GBP/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the 1.3375 mark. Despite the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the USA, market activity remains subdued.Investors were closely watching the UK GDP data for the second quarter. In annual terms, the growth rate decreased from 0.9% to 0.7%, and the quarterly dynamics slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%. These weak indicators may prompt the Bank of England to further ease monetary policy, especially against the background of the fact that the US Federal Reserve already cut the rate by 50 basis points in September.Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by a drop in the retail price index of the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which fell by 0.6% in September after a previous decrease of 0.3%. Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which is expected to amount to 51.5 points. Investors are also studying the statement of the former head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who stressed that the delay in tightening monetary policy contributed to a sharp increase in inflation in the country. However, in his opinion, the current situation has stabilized, which will allow controlling the growth of consumer prices in the future.Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.AUD/NZD: Australian retail sales may strengthen the dollar's positionThe AUD/NZD pair is at 1.0938 as of the trading session on October 1. This reflects a slight decrease of about 0.32% compared to the previous session. Market participants expect that quotes will continue to fluctuate against the background of the publication of economic data from Australia and New Zealand.The situation in Australia continues to put pressure on the AUD rate. The recent statement of support for the economy of China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, had a positive impact on the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, despite a slight improvement in the Chinese Business Activity Index (PMI), the Chinese economy still faces slowdown risks, which may have a restraining effect on Australian exports. In the Australian domestic market, important data on retail sales and construction permits are expected to be released, which, according to forecasts, may indicate a slowdown in activity in these sectors. Retail sales data for September will be published in Australia today, October 1, at 11:30 (GMT+2). Economists forecast an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may reflect the sustainability of consumer spending, despite the recent increase in interest rates. At the same time, data on construction permits will be released, where a decrease of 2.5% on a monthly basis is expected, indicating a slowdown in activity in the construction industry.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is showing mixed results. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has completed a cycle of rate hikes, leaving them at 5.5%. This has eased the pressure of inflation, but GDP growth remains low and recession risks persist. As a result, currency traders are considering lowering rates in the coming months, which could weaken the NZD. Nevertheless, interest in the New Zealand dollar remains on the background of its high interest rate and attractiveness to investors. Tomorrow, October 2, at 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish the NZIER Business Confidence index for the third quarter of 2024. Analysts expect an improvement in the indicator after a significant decline in the previous quarter, which may indicate a recovery in business activity. Also at 04:00 (GMT+2), data on export and import prices will be released, which will give a more complete picture of the country's trade balance.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.Gold analysisGold is trading at $2,643.50 per ounce as of October 1, showing an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous session. The price of gold has stabilized in the range of 2624-2666 USD, continuing to hold positions due to continuing geopolitical risks and expectations of a softer monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). If the price overcomes the level of 2670 USD, it is possible to move to the level of 2700 USD, however, if it drops below 2623 USD, a rollback to 2600 USD is likely.The economic situation in the United States remains an important factor for gold prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.75–1% in 2024, which will make gold a more attractive asset for investors. The publication of the ISM manufacturing business activity index for September today at 18:00 (GMT+2) is expected to reach 47.6 points, which is below the threshold of 50, signaling a reduction in production activity. Additional attention will be paid to the data on the number of open vacancies (JOLTS), which will also be released at 18:00 and will amount to 7.64 million, which may have an impact on the dollar and, accordingly, on the dynamics of gold.Geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices. The intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as strained relations between Russia and Western countries, create additional incentives for investors to choose gold as a safe asset. These events, together with changes in monetary policy and the weakening of the dollar, may continue to support the growth of gold prices in the coming months.Resistance levels: 2660, 2686, 2700.Support levels: 2623, 2600, ...

EUR/GBP: weak German GDP data increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is at the level of 0.8575 and shows sideways dynamics as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.12% less than the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains tense against the background of recent data on German GDP, which in the second quarter of 2024 showed a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and stagnation on an annual basis. These data reinforce concerns about a possible recession in Europe's largest economy. Also, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) fell to 43.7 points in August, which further worsens forecasts for the euro. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), the final estimate of eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be published: an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms and a decrease of 0.4% on an annual basis is projected. Additionally, traders' attention will be focused on data on the consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to reach 5.2% year-on-year.In the UK, the economic situation is also worrying. The Bank of England has stopped the cycle of raising interest rates, fearing negative consequences for economic growth, predicting an increase in GDP in the third quarter of only 0.1%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, although wage growth has slowed. The publication of the manufacturing activity index (PMI) for August showed a decrease to 43.0 points, indicating further problems in the industrial sector. Tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on the index of business activity in the service sector for August will be released, which may affect market sentiment.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8670.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8490.USD/CHF: Franc under pressure due to weak export demandThe USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.8490 against the background of weak dynamics of the US dollar. At the trading session on September 2, the pair shows a slight decrease, which is 0.04% lower than the previous session.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. On Friday, September 6, data on the unemployment rate are expected, which may show a decrease from 3.6% to 3.5%, as well as indicators of job growth outside agriculture, projected at 170 thousand. These data may affect market expectations regarding the Fed's further monetary policy, which is likely to continue the cycle of rate hikes to control inflation, given the weak dynamics of the economy and the labor market.In Switzerland, the situation remains stable, but the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, pointed to the pressure exerted on the country's economy by a strong franc and weak demand for exports, especially to the EU. The economic forecast indicates a decrease in the leading KOF index from 101.0 to 100.6 points, which also puts pressure on the national currency. In the coming weeks, discussions may follow on a possible easing of monetary policy to support the economy, which will have an impact on the dynamics of the franc.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/JPY: Australian GDP growth supported the strengthening of the pairThe AUD/JPY pair is trading at 94.60 and shows an upward trend as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.23% higher compared to the previous session.In Australia, the economic situation remains under pressure amid a slowdown in retail sales growth, which showed zero growth in July, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. These data reinforce expectations of a possible easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, according to its head Michelle Bullock, maintains a cautious approach to further rate cuts, despite projected inflation of 3.2% at the end of the year. Tomorrow, September 3, at 02:30 (GMT+2), data on Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter will be published, growth of 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis is expected, which may support the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation remains stable, but industrial production data for July showed a decrease of 0.8% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. The unemployment rate in the country remains at 2.6%, and the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.3% in annual terms. Tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2), statistics on changes in the wage level in Japan will be published, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year is expected. The market will also be influenced by the upcoming data on the index of business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 52.2 points.Resistance levels: 95.00, 95.50.Support levels: 94.00, 93.50.Gold market analysisAs of September 2, 2024, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading at about $2,515 per ounce, showing a moderate increase of 0.45% compared to the previous trading session. Gold continues to move in an uptrend, supported by demand for safe assets in the face of global economic uncertainty and a weakening US dollar.The economic situation in the United States remains a key factor influencing the dynamics of gold. Recent employment data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in August 2024, below the forecast of 4.3%. At the same time, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in July, which somewhat eased concerns about inflationary pressures. These data contributed to the strengthening of the dollar, which has a restraining effect on the growth of gold prices.The situation in the international arena also remains tense. The slowdown in economic growth in China and the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East are supporting the demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, Chinese industrial production data for August showed a slowdown in growth to 3.9% year-on-year, below the expected 4.2%, reinforcing investors' concerns about the prospects for global economic recovery.Resistance levels: 2510.00, 2525.00, 2540.00, 2555.00.Support levels: 2500.00, 2483.64, 2470.00, ...

EUR/USD: the pair reached December 2023 heights after the Fed statementDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows an unstable movement, fluctuating near the level of 1.1180.US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was time to start lowering the benchmark interest rate, which has reached its highest level in the last 20 years. Despite the lack of precise figures for a possible decline, he noted that inflation is weakening and stressed the importance of monitoring the situation on the labor market. As a result, traders have revised their forecasts and expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the rate may be reduced by 100 basis points in 2024.The euro's growth is also supported by macroeconomic indicators. In August, the index of business activity in the service sector rose to 53.3 points, which is higher than both the previous value of 51.9 points and the forecast of 51.7 points. In the manufacturing sector, the index was 45.6 points, which almost coincided with the forecast of 45.7 points and did not affect the optimism of market participants. The ECB minutes of August 22 confirm the commitment to maintain a strict monetary policy until the inflation target of 2.0% is reached.Resistance levels: 1.1256, 1.1382, 1.1475.Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1103, 1.1010.GBP/USD: the Bank of England adjusts forecasts for a repeat increase in inflationThe GBP/USD pair is rolling back from the recently reached record highs, approaching the level of 1.3200, amid attempts by traders to determine the further direction of movement of quotations.The main attention of market participants is focused on the speeches of the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, which started on Friday, August 23. Jerome Powell expressed a "dovish" mood, noting the need to lower interest rates to avoid excessive cooling of the labor market. At the same time, he did not give clear instructions on the extent of future changes, although experts' expectations included the possibility of reducing the rate by 50 basis points in September. Andrew Bailey, head of the Bank of England, stressed that inflation in the UK has slowed significantly, falling from 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.0% in May and June 2024. Despite this, inflation risks remain, and forecasts for a possible second wave of price increases are being considered.On Friday, the market will pay attention to July data on consumer lending in the UK and the index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States. Forecasts for the latter assume that the base value will remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis and increase by 2.6% year-on-year. In the UK, Nationwide's house price index is also expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.2%, reflecting the impact of tight monetary policy on the real estate market. Traders also evaluate data on the GfK consumer confidence index, which in August reached -13.0 points, the highest in almost three years, despite forecasts of -12.0 points, which indicates the restoration of the financial situation of the British and an improvement in their perception of the economic situation.Resistance levels: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3375, 1.3435.Support levels: 1.3188, 1.3150, 1.3100, 1.3050.USD/JPY: the Fed is considering the start of interest rate cutsAgainst the background of the depreciation of the US dollar, the USD/JPY pair is adjusted downwards, trading around 144.00.On Friday, the chairman of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, speaking in parliament, reaffirmed his commitment to tightening monetary policy, declaring his readiness to raise interest rates when inflation reaches the target level of 2.0%. Ueda noted that the situation in financial markets may affect the timing of rate decisions, despite criticism of the regulator for a sharp tightening that put pressure on the country's stock market. Meanwhile, recent macroeconomic data indicate the need for these measures: the consumer price index in July was 2.8%, higher than the projected 2.7%, and the base index rose from 2.6% to 2.7%. At the same time, the index of leading indicators increased from 108.6 to 109.0 points in June, while the index of matching indicators decreased from 113.7 to 113.2 points.The US dollar continues its downward movement, holding near the important level of 100.00 in the USDX index, after the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. For the first time in a long time, Powell hinted at a possible reduction in interest rates in September, stressing that the regulator is confident that inflation will slow down to the target 2.0%. According to him, the Fed's attention is now focused on achieving goals for the labor market and the real estate sector. Experts believe that the scale of the rate cut will depend on the severity of the problems in the labor market caused by rising unemployment.Resistance levels: 145.20, 149.30.Support levels: 143.20, 140.20.Gold analysisAs of August 26, 2024, the price of gold is about $2,080 per ounce, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous trading session. Gold is showing a correction after reaching maximum values against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).The economic situation in the United States continues to put pressure on the gold market. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.75% by the end of 2024, which will reduce the attractiveness of the dollar and probably support gold prices in the long term. This year, the Fed's rate may reach 4.6%, which causes an increase in demand for gold as a safe asset. In 2025, with a further reduction in rates to 3.5-4%, gold may strengthen its position as a hedging asset against the background of continuing economic uncertainty.The geopolitical situation also has a significant impact on the gold market. Increasing conflicts, including the ongoing standoff between Russia and Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to the rise in gold prices. Investors continue to view gold as a safe haven in the face of global instability. Additionally, the ongoing attempts by the BRICS countries to reduce dependence on the US dollar may put additional pressure on the dollar exchange rate, which will also support the quotes of the precious metal.Resistance levels: $2,100, $2,120.Support levels: $2,050, ...

During Thursday's Asian session, AUD/USD shows a moderate decline, retreating from local highs on July 16. The pair is testing the 0.6730 support level for a break down, but sellers are still missing new strong triggers.Investors are partially taking profits on long positions amid expectations of the annual Economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday, from whom they expect hints on the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. The baseline scenario assumes a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting and possibly one or two more cuts of 25 basis points before the end of the year, which will allow the economy to slow down without strong pressure on the labor market. Some analysts predict a more aggressive decline — up to 50 basis points, but the probability of such an option does not exceed 25%.The Australian dollar is receiving some support on the back of positive business activity data for August. The Australian manufacturing sector showed growth from 47.5 to 48.7 points, the services sector — from 50.4 to 52.2 points, exceeding analysts' expectations. The composite index also rose to 51.4 points. Similar data from the United States will be published later today. A slight decrease in production activity and a slowdown in the service sector are expected.Investors are also carefully studying the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), where it was noted that an interest rate cut is unlikely in the near future, since the rate must remain high to combat inflation. And, although at the meeting, due to the growth of core inflation, the possibility of further tightening the policy to 3.9% was considered, in the end it was decided to leave the rate unchanged.Technically, the analysis shows signs of growth. The Bollinger Band indicator is narrowing. The MACD suggests continued purchases, the stochastic oscillator signals a possible downward reversal.Short positions can be considered after a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.6725 with a target at 0.6675. We set the stop loss at 0.6750.It is logical to consider purchases after the breakout above the 0.6750 mark. The target is the key level of 0.6800. We place the stop loss at ...

EUR/USD: EU GDP is expected to increase in the second quarterDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows multidirectional movements, remaining near the 1.0990 level. Trading takes place in conditions of low activity, as investors refrain from opening new positions before the release of important macroeconomic statistics.Analysts predict that in the second quarter, EU gross domestic product (GDP) growth will remain at 0.3%, which should lead to an increase in the annual rate from 0.4% to 0.6%. In Spain, the consumer price index for July fell from 3.4% to 2.8%, which corresponds to the general trend towards slowing inflation in the region and supports the current position of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. Earlier, the market's attention was focused on data on business sentiment in the eurozone and Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). These data turned out to be weaker than expected: the index for the eurozone fell from 43.7 to 17.9 points, and for Germany — from 41.8 to 19.2 points, which is significantly lower than forecasts.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a correction, being at the level of 102.40 in the USDX index. The July producer price index showed an increase of only 0.1%, which is below market expectations, and led to a decrease in the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.2%. The base indicator remained unchanged for the month, but decreased from 3.0% to 2.4% in annual terms, indicating a decrease in the industry's ability to maintain price levels.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0970, 1.0880.GBP/USD: annual inflation in Britain fell to 3.3% in JulyThe GBP/USD pair is showing instability, fluctuating around the level of 1.2830. Traders' attention is focused on the latest inflation statistics from the UK for July.The annual core consumer price index fell from 3.5% to 3.3%, despite expectations of 3.4%, while the broader index increased from 2.0% to 2.2%, with a forecast of 2.3%. The monthly value of the indicator fell by 0.2% after the previous 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the UK labour market is also showing signs of slowing down: annual earnings growth is slowing and the number of vacancies has been declining for 25 months in a row. This reduces the likelihood that the Bank of England will continue to aggressively raise interest rates. Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, expressed concerns about a possible return of inflation to high levels, despite the fact that in June inflation was kept in the target range of 2.0-3.0%. Recall that Mann was one of those who voted to keep the rate at 5.25%, not supporting the majority's decision to reduce it to 5.00% for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.On the same day, investors also expect inflation data from the United States. The core consumer price index excluding food and energy is projected to decrease from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and rise from 0.1% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. The broader index is expected to fall from 3.0% to 2.9%, but with an increase of 0.2% after the previous decrease of 0.1%. It is important to note that the core producer price index in the United States fell from 3.0% to 2.4% in July, exceeding analysts' expectations.Resistance levels: 1.2860, 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2776, 1.2730, 1.2700.Gold market analysisGold is showing a slight decline, moving away from the recent local highs reached on August 2. Currently, the instrument is testing the 2460.00 level, trying to break it down while market participants are waiting for new factors that can affect the price movement.In addition, gold quotes are supported against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions. There have been reports in the media about a possible Iranian military operation against Israel, which could begin as early as this week. Official Tehran has threatened retaliatory measures for the death of the leader of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. The alleged attack could negate all cease-fire efforts in the Gaza Strip and significantly expand the scale of the conflict in the Middle East.There is also an uptrend in the market. According to the latest report of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased from 246.6 thousand to 238.7 thousand. Recently, market participants have been actively closing positions in anticipation of a possible correction: the balance of the bulls amounted to 203.726 thousand positions against 18.252 thousand for the bears. Last week, buyers closed 7,882 thousand contracts, while sellers reduced their positions by 4,447 thousand, indicating continuing concerns about further growth.Resistance levels: 2470.00, 2483.64, 2497.67, 2510.00.Support levels: 2450.00, 2431.44, 2415.00, 2400.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are recovering from yesterday's decline, which did not allow quotes to gain a foothold at new highs reached on July 23. The instrument is currently testing the 80.70 level.Today at 16:30 (GMT+2), the report of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) on the dynamics of oil reserves for the week ended August 9 is expected to be published. Analysts' forecasts indicate a possible decrease in inventories by 2 million barrels, after a decrease of 3.728 million barrels last week. In addition, market participants are analyzing the updated forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA experts have revised their expectations for an increase in global hydrocarbon production in 2024, lowering them by 40 thousand. barrels per day to a total of 102.93 million barrels per day. In 2025, production is expected to increase to 104.88 million barrels per day, while demand in 2024 is projected at 970 thousand barrels per day, which will lead to a total consumption of 103.06 million barrels per day. Among the factors constraining demand growth, the slow recovery of the Chinese economy and the possible weakening of industrial production in the EU countries are mentioned. It is also noted that in the second quarter, fuel demand outside the OECD countries was the lowest since 2020.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.40, 83.14.Support levels: 80.00, 79.00, 77.86, ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...

Is it worth investing in Gold now?Gold is the most popular precious metal for investment. The profitability of investments in it is subject to significant fluctuations, but over the past 5 years, the precious metal has brought investors ~68% in dollars, the average annual yield was ~13.6%.What does the price of Gold depend onTraditionally, it is believed that investing in Gold protects against inflation. But in many ways, metal prices depend on supply and demand.  In the first place in terms of demand for Gold is the jewelry industry ~45%. Investments in it take ~25-30%. Purchases of gold by central banks on average amount to ~15-20%. Production accounts for ~7-10% of the total demand.  Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the current situation with supply and demandAccording to a study by GOLDHUB, the demand for gold in the first half of 2021 decreased by 10% year-on-year to 1885.2 tons. Gold production increased by 4.27% to 2307.9 tons.  What the banks say The banks' opinions on Gold prices are divided. Credit Suisse and Société Générale forecast a decline in gold prices to an average of $1,670 per ounce with a ceiling of $1,792 by the end of the year. Commerzbank and Standard Chartered are more optimistic — the banks believe that Gold prices can recover to $1834 and $1820 per ounce, respectively.Analysts' opinionThere is a surplus of Gold supply in the amount of 422.7 tons on the market. To reduce it, it is necessary that the demand for jewelry and investment increased by 20%, and production remained at the current level. But the growth of gold production by 2023 is projected to be almost 2 times.  Given the possible increase in the Fed rate by 2023 and the associated growth of the dollar, the strong growth of gold looks doubtful. It seems that the prices for precious metals in the near future will range from $1,670 to 1,820 per ounce.  The current price levels for investors look unattractive from the point of view of prospects for 12-18 months. Most likely, Gold will provide more interesting levels to buy.Read more: What does the Fed rate ...

Without exaggeration, Gold can be called one of the most popular precious metals. It is Gold that is considered to be a safe haven asset, to which funds should be transferred in the event of financial crises. However, as it turned out, in 2021, competent financial market participants were divided into 2 groups: some believe that Gold has already outlived itself, since investing in a net asset will not allow you to extract passive profit (dividends), while others are convinced that Gold is the only real money that is not afraid of inflation and other troubles of modern economic reality.It is striking that the above-mentioned opinions do not contradict each other in any way. Each of the beliefs can be considered fair. It all depends on the specific macroeconomic situation. For example, in 2020-2021, gold is in high demand due to economic instability, which was caused by COVID-19. The price of Gold is steadily growing in the medium term, and periodically emerging local downtrends are only a natural correction of the global uptrend.Let's not forget that Gold is a limited resource despite the fact that the demand for this metal is consistently at a high level. This fact practically guarantees the continuation of the global uptrend in the long term.  Can investing in Gold protect against inflation? The downward corrections on the charts reflecting the pricing of gold can be quite long. It is not entirely correct to see investments in this metal as just a way to protect against inflation. The last 50 years suggest that it is much better to consider investments in securities (shares of companies with high capitalization, or in government bonds) to protect free funds from depreciation. In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the value of gold decreased from 500 USD to 250 USD. During the same period, the purchasing power of the US dollar also decreased by 57%. As a result, Gold not only failed to meet the expectations of investors,but also provided a serious drawdown. However, those who refused to sell gold at 250 USD per ounce today can extract superprofits, since the current value of the metal at the time of writing exceeds the mark of 1800 USD.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studySumming up a small sum, it should be said that Gold is indeed a reliable object for investing free funds, but only in the long term.  The value of Gold and geopolitics In the period from the 80s to the early 2000s, the United States was the absolute leader in the world. The USSR collapsed, and the PRC was not ready for an economic breakthrough. This state of affairs suited many, since American regulators dictated uniform rules of the game in the financial markets and strictly controlled them. There were enough objects for investment, both for holders of significant capital and for the middle class. The price of Gold declined during this period, as investors were offered more profitable directions.  In 2021, the situation has changed radically. There are players in the arena in the face of Russia and China and India, who are not satisfied with the model of a unipolar world. Oddly enough, but the start for the development of these states was the terrorist attacks of 2001 in the United States. From that moment on, echoes of anti-globalism began to appear in the geopolitical space. This directly affected the price of Gold, which is clearly visible on the monthly chart:Gold, 1M It is quite simple to explain this: the United States has serious competitors in the face of Russia, China and other developing countries. Competition became the main cause of economic instability, which contributed to the growth of Gold capitalization.  How can a possible "de-dollarization" affect the price of Gold? Since 2008, the United States has increasingly abused its financial position. The status of the USD as a single reserve currency does not suit many people anymore. At the moment, a number of countries are already looking for an alternative to green American bills, and the central banks of Russia and China are actively increasing the share of the yellow metal in their own reserves. In the Russian Federation, this share has already exceeded the mark of 20%. If you believe the forecasts of prominent analysts, the volume of capital investments in Gold by the central banks of a number of countries will only increase over the years. Of course, this will lead to an increase in capitalization and, consequently, to a significant increase in value.  Currency wars It is quite possible that in the foreseeable future we will be lucky to witness a real war between the currencies of different countries. This will significantly increase the volatility of financial markets and create good opportunities for effective trading. The reason for currency wars can be a strong debt burden of the world. It is known that the total GDP of all countries cannot exceed 80 trillion USD per year. At the time of writing, the global debt is estimated at $ 400 trillion, which is 5 times more than the maximum possible total GDP. By the way, the lion's share of this debt (more than 70%) lies on the shoulders of the United States.  The reason for the formation of such a debt was a loyal mortgage policy, as well as the credit system as a whole. Of course, these 400 trillion US dollars are unsecured pieces of paper. Sooner or later, this bubble will burst, which will lead to a large-scale devaluation of all world currencies. With such a development of events, the value of Gold will obviously grow at a furious pace. Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useGiffen's product Among the trading participants in the financial markets, there is such a term as a Gifen commodity. This is a conditional asset, along with an increase in the value of which the demand for it also increases. A striking example is the Apple iPhone. Fundamental changes have not been made to the device for a long time, just like in the OS, but the demand and cost of goods are only growing every year. Something similar can now be observed on the charts reflecting the dynamics of the pricing of the yellow metal. Its current value is breaking world records, while the capitalization continues to increase every month.  Is it worth buying Gold in 2021 to save and increase funds? Taking into account all the above, the answer is obvious. Yes, Gold will definitely increase in price both in the long and short term. Statistics on COVID-19 remain disappointing, new strains make vaccination an ineffective means of protection in the EU countries, and restrictive measures are still relevant in a number of countries. This crisis led to the fact that the price of Gold marked a new, absolute historical maximum at around 2121 USD per ounce. Since the cause of the crisis remains relevant, there is every reason to believe that in the foreseeable future we will see new highs on the XAU/USD pair.  In addition, other facts mentioned above allow us to confidently speak about the growth of the value of the yellow metal:The debt burden exceeds the total GDP.Central banks of developing countries are actively increasing the share of Gold in their own international reserves.he demand for Gold continues to increase among both private and institutional investors.Conclusion: in 2021, Gold is no longer just an instrument of protection against inflation. This is an asset, investments in which can significantly increase the capital.Read more: What is the devaluation of ...

For centuries, gold has been associated with wealth and prosperity. For centuries, gold has been an almost invariable measure of value. In the long run, gold is always growing. In addition, during periods of global economic and financial crises, only gold strengthens in value, while prices for other assets fall. Therefore, many investors prefer to experience such difficult times, having some "gold reserve" in their portfolio. Gold traditionally acts as a safe haven for savings. It is not for nothing that many institutional investors, central banks necessarily keep part of their assets in gold, and states have a safety cushion in the form of yellow precious metal reserves (gold and foreign exchange reserves).Retail investors have different opportunities to invest in gold: bullion and coins, depersonalized metal accounts in banks, futures and CFDs on gold, ETFs, shares of gold mining companies.In this article, we will consider another option for investing in the yellow metal – through the purchase of a spot contract for gold. This tool is still young and, unfortunately, is not yet available to all investors. But as the involvement of new professional market participants in this process increases, it has every chance to acquire the status of a mass one.What is a spot contract?A spot contract is a trade transaction that involves the direct sale or purchase of an asset with delivery and settlement in a short time for cash or another asset at the market price at the time of the transaction. In simple words, this is a trade transaction at a price and with the calculation "on the spot".The spot price is the current market price of an asset.A feature of the spot market is that the assets of the seller and the buyer are always available.Different asset classes are available on spot markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies and precious metals. The platforms for spot trading can be stock exchanges, commodity exchanges, cryptocurrency exchanges. However, there is also over-the-counter or off-system trading - directly between market participants.Spot contracts are one of the opportunities to invest in gold.Read more: What is a CFD?Features of the gold spot marketThe main pricing platform for gold and other precious metals on the world market is the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). London fixing is set twice a day based on quotations from the world's largest sites and exchanges and is used in most contracts for the supply of precious metals on the world market. When there is a significant price difference on individual exchanges, arbitration occurs, which balances them. The price of a spot contract for gold in the domestic market is not tied to fixing, but it closely correlates with it. The ratio of supply and demand has a great influence on prices in the domestic spot gold market. Naturally, the market situation, as well as investors' expectations about the further dynamics of the price of the "golden asset", respond to the balance of these components.Since the price is determined by supply and demand, the spread between the purchase and sale price is small.There are several commissions when buying a spot gold contract: the exchange commission and the broker's trading commission. Of course, if the broker still has a depository commission, then during the periods of transactions on the account, these costs will also be included.Pros and cons of gold spot contractsAny investment instrument has its pros and cons. The investor's task is to find a balance of these components for himself.Advantages of buying gold on the spot market:"It is much more convenient than in a bank" – there is no need to look for a bank branch where operations with precious metals are available, there is no need to worry about storing physical gold – after all, damage to bullion and coins can have an extremely negative impact on their liquidity and value, there is no need to worry about safety and security, there is no need to compare the price of gold in different banks in search of the best offer.Spot contracts are cheaper – the price is not set by the bank itself, but is made up of the ratio of supply and demand in the stock glass.Long-term investment opportunities. Unlike futures contracts, a spot contract is not time-limited. That is, you can "keep gold" in the portfolio for as long as you want and do not need to worry about transferring funds from one contract to another.The ability to combine spot and futures contracts allows experienced investors to implement different trading strategies and hedge risks.When buying gold through a spot contract, the investor does not have any problems and costs associated with storing gold, as in the case of buying bullion or gold coins.No restrictions on the purchase of gold. Through a spot contract, you can buy any amount of gold – from grams to kilograms, the restriction can only be related to the amount of supply.Read more: How Portfolio Investing WorksOf course, each tool has its own disadvantages. In the case of spot contracts , the following can be noted:Not all brokers provide access to gold exchange trading. Above, we have indicated a list of brokers that give their private clients access to operations with spot contracts for gold.The possibility of margin trading can be considered both as a plus and a minus of the instrument in the absence of knowledge of how to use it.Risks of loss of funds. Since the supply of physical metal is not provided, and the Depository does not keep records of spot contracts for gold, the only confirmation that the investor owns gold is a brokerage report. And although the clients' assets placed on a special brokerage account for precious metals are not subject to recovery for the broker's obligations, in the event of the broker's bankruptcy, the client bears great risks of losing gold, or rather money. All this suggests the need for careful selection of a broker.Binding to one broker. That is, buying and selling gold through a spot contract is possible only with one broker. Transfer of assets from one broker to another is not possible.ConclusionGold spot contract is one of the options for investing in gold, more convenient, highly liquid and profitable compared to buying gold in a bank. Perhaps it will not provide such capital growth as stocks, but as a diversification of "gold savings" it can be a worthy alternative.A reasonable investor should always remember the rules of diversification of the investment portfolio and not fall into a "gold rush" at any manifestation of the crisis in the economy. Gold cannot act as a full-fledged protective asset. Its value is volatile: during periods of crisis, it can grow, but during periods of calm and economic growth, gold usually falls in price. Only bonds can perform the protection function in an investment portfolio by 100% – they bring a fixed and previously known income.Gold can be part of an investment portfolio, but as a component of broad diversification. Only such an investment portfolio will show stable results under any economic ...

Making a profit from financial instruments in the short, medium or long term is the main goal of any investor. Beginners prefer to use stocks and bonds, and we are usually talking about the direct purchase/sale of assets.But experienced traders often work with derivatives, the type of which is chosen based on the goals and skills of the investor. With the right approach, they allow you to make good money, with an inept one, serious monetary losses are likely.What are derivatives?Types of derivativesFuturesForwardOptionSwapFunctions of derivativesHow and where to trade derivativesChoosing a broker and opening a trading accountChoosing a derivativeAnalysis of the market situationPurchase of a contractWhat are derivatives?A derivative (derivative financial instruments) is a type of contractual contract that obliges the transaction partners to perform certain actions with the underlying asset in the future. Most often, this is the delivery of goods to a specific date at a given price on terms that do not depend on price fluctuations in the markets.The conditions prescribed in the derivatives contracts are called the specification. Holders have the right to sell the acquired derivatives, and their issuers are not always the owners of the underlying assets.Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and featuresDerivatives do not exist by themselves. These are derivative financial instruments that are inextricably linked to the value of the underlying assets, and there may be more than one of them.At the same time, the following can act as a base:Securities (Shares, ADRs, GDRs, etc.);Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc);Stock indexes (S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE100, etc.);Commodities (metals, energy carriers, agricultural products, etc.);Macroeconomic and statistical indicators (key refinancing rate, inflation, weather, etc.).The derivatives futures market operates on the same principles as the securities and commodity exchanges. Pricing in this industry follows similar principles. At the same time, the total number of contracts presented on the market and the number of underlying assets are often not related in any way.Derivatives are a rapidly developing sector of today's financial system. According to the most conservative estimates, the volume of this market is $845 trillion. (the volume of world GDP is $86.6 trillion). A number of experts claim that the volume of the derivatives market reaches $2 quadrn.The first analogues of modern derivatives originated among Babylonian merchants. In Japan in the 17th century, rice coupons became widespread, and in the UK and Holland — options for flower bulbs. The first modern derivatives were launched on the London Stock Exchange in the 1860s. And they were actively distributed in the 20s of the XX century.Types of derivativesAll derivatives (derivative financial instruments) are divided into those that are traded freely (contracts of a standardized type on exchange platforms), and contractual (agreements in the OTC sector). Let's look at the most popular types of them.Read more: What is OTC and what are its featuresFuturesFutures contracts imply delivery on a specific date of the selected underlying asset at a given price. In fact, this is a contract of sale with deferred execution. There are futures:Settlement - without the physical movement of the goods or the change of the owner of the securities, the monetary settlement takes place on the day of the expiration date;Delivery - the goods are shipped directly within the specified time.Example: by buying oil futures, you can count on the delivery of the number of barrels specified in the specification by the deadline specified in the contract. But when buying index futures, only monetary settlement is possible, there is no physical commodity.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksForwardForward contracts are concluded in the over-the-counter sector. They imply the delivery of the underlying asset at a given price by a specific date. Unlike standardized futures, they allow you to set additional conditions (quality, packaging, etc.), that is, there is still an opportunity for business maneuvers.Example: a large industrial production requires rolled metal after 5 months. According to analysts' forecasts, rental prices are expected to rise in the near future. At the moment, there are no free funds, as well as the desire to bear increased storage costs. The buyer and the supplier conclude a contract at the current price with the supply of products in the future with the payment of warranty security.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeAn example of a forward at the household level is drawing up a contract for the purchase and sale of an apartment in a house under construction or a car in a car dealership (if it is not in stock).OptionThe purchase of an option gives the right to buy or sell an asset in a given time period at a specified price. The first option is called call, the second-put. It is not necessary to execute the contract if the conditions are unfavorable for the owner (the projected price of the asset has gone in the wrong direction). It is acceptable to simply fix a loss in the amount of the option value.Example: on the stock exchange, a company's share is traded at a price of 50 dollars. The trader, having analyzed the market situation, revealed the probability of growth up to 65 dollars. He acquires a call option with the right to purchase a security at 50 dollars. with a guaranteed security of 10% (5 dollars.). When the desired price is reached within the specified period, the trader executes the option. And sells a share on the stock market already at the market price. If the forecast is not justified, it is permissible to resell the option cheaper or not to execute it, fixing a loss of 5 dollars.SwapA complex version of a futures contract, works on the principle of "2 in 1". A transaction is concluded for the purchase or sale of an asset with the simultaneous opening of a counter-directional transaction with the same asset on similar terms, but after a certain period. The main goals of using swaps are to increase the number of assets and reduce risks (hedging). The most common types of swaps are currency, commodity, credit, interest, stocks and precious metals.Read more: Swaps in the financial market. What are they and what are they given to the traderIn addition to these types of derivatives, there are other, less popular types — warrants, PCI, FRA, depositary receipts. There are also derivatives for derivatives, but investors are wary of such an instrument.Functions of derivativesDerivatives are acquired not only in order to become the owner of the underlying asset. Their functions are more diverse:Risk hedging (protection against sharp price and exchange rate fluctuations);Price arbitrage (conclusion of multidirectional transactions in several markets in order to make a profit);Tax optimization, for example, when using a stock swap, you will not have to pay a tax related to capital gains;Speculation on the price fluctuations of an asset;Reducing transaction costs;Expansion of earning opportunities through increased leverage (X100).Read more: Leverage on the stock marketHow and where to trade derivativesHow to trade derivatives:Choosing a broker.Opening a trading account and depositing funds.Choosing the type of derivative.Market analysis.Purchase of a contract.Working with futures contracts and options is similar. But there is one serious difference. Futures obliges to fulfill the conditions regardless of how the market situation develops for the owner. The option leaves the right to choose.As for the places where you can trade derivatives, ordinary investors are mainly available on exchanges where less than 20% of this type of assets are traded. Options and futures contracts are presented in the futures sections of these platforms.There are 64 exchanges working with futures in the world. One of the largest is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME (commodities and cryptocurrency).Among the cryptocurrency exchanges working with futures contracts, OKEx, BitMEX, Binance Futures, ByBit, Huobi and Deribit deserve attention (they are in the TOP 10).Read more: Overview of the Huobi Global ExchangeThe process of trading derivatives should be considered in more detail.Choosing a broker and opening a trading accountThe choice of a broker should be given maximum attention. In addition to having a direct access to the exchange platforms of interest, you should check the license. The list of licensed brokers is presented on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.It is useful to get acquainted with the reliability ratings on specialized Internet resources and reviews of real customers. After registering on the broker's website, creating a personal account, verifying your identity and installing a trading terminal (QUICK, MT4, MT5 or the broker's own developments), you need to top up your trading account.In some cases, access to the demo version (if available) is provided without making a deposit.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itChoosing a derivativeOne of the main advantages of derivatives (namely futures) is a wide range of assets. We choose the market category from the following options: indices, commodities (energy, agricultural products, etc.), interest rates (LIBOR, RUONIA, etc.), currency or securities.After that, we select the type of trading instrument (a specific type of metal, a brand of oil, etc.). The choice should be made taking into account the previous trading experience. If a trader has been working with stocks for a long time, then futures and stock swaps are among the preferred instruments.Analysis of the market situationBefore making a final purchase decision, you should analyze the market situation using fundamental and technical analysis. It is necessary to take into account everything that may affect the value of the underlying asset in the future.It is not superfluous to study the history of quotes and track the news background.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresPurchase of a contractAt the final stage, we determine the type of contract and the nuances of the specification. For example, there are 2 futures options available for gold — a standard one for 100 ounces and an e-mini (10 ounces). Having selected the necessary asset, we make a purchase request and confirm the transaction.At first glance, trading in derivatives (derivative financial instruments) seems simple and understandable.In reality, you need a lot of trading experience, a knowledge base, an understanding of the market situation, skills in analysis, risk management and the use of leverage.In the absence of proper training, it is advisable to undergo training and try out various strategies in the demo version. For beginners who do not have system knowledge, it is advisable to start with the most liquid and volatile instruments — oil futures, indices or blue-chip stocks.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their ...