Trading signals and online forecasts Gold

EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, ...

USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, ...

USD/CHF: instrument has reached a local maximumCurrency pair USD/CHF is trading mixed dynamics, testing the level of 0.8960 and the local high of May 2, updated a week earlier.The day before the US dollar got a moderate support amid macroeconomic data releases, but all attempts to hold the updated limits failed. For example, retail sales for April rose 0.4% to a 0.7% decline in the past, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.7% consolidation, and excluding motor vehicles rose 0.4% to a 0.5% decline for March the day before. Industrial production strengthened 0.5%, breaking March's zero trend. Production capacity utilization rose to 79.7% in April from 79.4% as expected by experts.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030 and 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8819.USD/TRY: lira is actively losing groundThe USD/TRY trade instrument is actively rallying, having reached the area of 19.7400, and the rate of appreciation has been breaking the records of the recent correction.The Turkish currency is actively weakening due to the outcome of the first round voting in presidential and parliamentary elections. The incumbent president of the Republic of Turkey failed to overcome the threshold of 50.0% of supporters, in spite of a fairly confident breakaway from the representative of the opposition in power, as a result of which a new vote will be held on May 28. The current leader's government has been actively reforming the economy since 2017, in an attempt to overcome record consumer inflation and keep the Turkish lira afloat. The current president is ignoring the traditional approach of global regulators on monetary parameters by reducing the cost of borrowing, maintaining the hope that credit products will become more affordable and attractive to international investors in the country, causing the Central Bank of Turkey to come under pressure from the government on a regular basis. In turn, markets have expressed fears that the formed inflationary spiral could have very negative consequences for the financial sector in the country.Resistance levels: 19.7500, 19.8000, 19.8500, 19.9000.Support levels: 19.6530, 19.6000, 19.5500, 19.5000.GBP/USD: UK keeps recording a slowdown in the economyThe strengthened American currency gives impetus to the GBP/USD currency pair to correct at 1.2479.The day before the British pound made an attempt to rise, but on Tuesday the statistics on the national employment market negated the achievement of the asset. Thus, the number of unemployed rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in March amid an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 26.5 thousand in February to 46.7 thousand, which set a new record for March 2021, where such a situation was possible due to epidemiological restrictions. This situation reduced labor productivity by 1.4 percent, after increasing by 0.4 percent. The average wage rate maintained its level of 5.8%, having a disincentive effect on new hires.Resistance levels: 1.2560 and 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2200.Gold PricesThe precious metal is quoted near the key multi-year mark of 2000.0.According to the published report of the World Gold Council, analysts noted a slight sentiment in favor of lowering the key value in Q1. For example, first-quarter demand fell 13.0% year-over-year to 1,080.0 tonnes, while the jewelry industry lowered gold demand to 508.6 tonnes, or 2.0%. Investor demand corrected by -51.0% to 273.7 tonnes, while physical gold bars and coins gained 5.0% to 302.4 tonnes. Capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs decreased to 28.7 tonnes from 270.7 tonnes the year before.In turn, central banks are increasing their purchases of gold to bolster reserves, with the first quarter value renewing its highest peak over the same period in 2022 at 176.0% to 228.4 tonnes.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2050.0.Support levels: 1975.0, ...

USD/JPY: Die Fed wird aufgefordert, ihren hawkishen Kurs fortzusetzenDas Handelsinstrument USD/JPY verzeichnet eine moderate Stärkung und testet die Marke von 136,00. Der Vermögenswert genießt Unterstützung durch technische Faktoren und die Erwartungen der Anleger hinsichtlich weiterer Schritte der US-Notenbank.Die japanische Währung wiederum ist aufgrund der Politik der japanischen Zentralbank, die am Vortag eine Fortsetzung der neutralen geldpolitischen Parameter bestätigte, ohne Stimulus. Zuvor hatten führende Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an einer von Reuters initiierten Umfrage teilgenommen, wonach die Befragten einen Anstieg des Kerninflationsindex für den Verbraucher im April von 3,1 % auf 3,4 % erwarteten. Lohnerhöhungen und ein Anstieg der Preise für Konsumgüter und Dienstleistungen deuten darauf hin, dass solche Daten in naher Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit veröffentlicht werden. Unterdessen zeigten die zu Beginn der Woche veröffentlichten makroökonomischen Daten Japans für April einen Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise um 0,2 % gegenüber einem Nullstand im März, während die Erwartungen der Analysten bei 0,3 % lagen.Widerstandsniveaus: 136,50, 137,50, 138,50, 139,67.Unterstützungsniveaus: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: Seitwärtsdynamik innerhalb der Grenzen von 0,6820-0,6600Wie das Australian Bureau of Data in seinem veröffentlichten Baubericht für März mitteilte, ging die Gesamtzahl der genehmigten Baugenehmigungen gegenüber dem Februar um 0,1 % zurück, während der private Sektor um 2,8 % zurückging. Die Gesamtzahl für alle Immobilienkategorien sank um 5,9 % und für neue Wohngebäude um 6,4 %. Das Volumen der Anträge für den Bau von Nichtwohngebäuden ging um 5,1 % zurück. Analysten weisen darauf hin, dass die Daten zum Immobilienmarkt, die Hoffnungen auf eine Erholung im ersten Quartal geweckt hatten, nun ihre Abwärtskorrektur wieder aufgenommen haben, was die nationale Wirtschaft unter Druck gesetzt hat.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,6720 und 0,6820.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0,6600, 0,6470.GoldpreisDer "sichere Hafen" wird leicht höher gehandelt, wobei er seine Verluste aus dem schwachen Rückgang vom Vortag wieder wettmacht und die Marke von 2014,00 testet.Der mäßige Druck auf das Edelmetall wurde durch den Nachrichtenhintergrund des vergangenen Donnerstags und Freitags ausgeübt, als der US-Dollar erneut versuchte, seine Position zu stärken. Darüber hinaus wurde der Rückgang der Notierungen durch einen Anstieg der Zinssätze für US-Staatsanleihen und eine Überprüfung der Pläne der US-Notenbank zur weiteren Anpassung der Kosten für die Kreditaufnahme verursacht. Die Expertengemeinschaft erwartet weiterhin eine Nullreaktion auf den Zinssatz und eine Fortsetzung des Zielsatzes von 5,25 %, während die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Anhebung am vergangenen Montag nicht über 4,0 % hinausging, inzwischen aber auf 12,0 % gestiegen ist.Die Veröffentlichung der Daten am Ende der Vorwoche, am 12. Mai, übte einen moderaten Druck auf den US-Dollar aus und ermöglichte dem Gold eine Erholung. So sank der Verbrauchervertrauensindex der Universität Michigan von 63,5 Punkten im Mai auf 57,7 Punkte, entgegen den Expertenschätzungen, die von einem Rückgang auf nur 63,0 Punkte ausgingen. Heute werden die Anleger in der Lage sein, die am Vortag von der New Yorker Fed bekannt gegebene Geschäftstätigkeit im verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu beurteilen.Widerstandsniveaus: 2030,00, 2050,00, 2065,00, 2085,00.Unterstützungsniveaus: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Überblick über den RohölmarktWährend des APAC-Handels zeigt Brent-Rohöl eine widersprüchliche Stimmung und hält sich im Bereich von 73,75. Die "Bären" machen weiter Druck, indem sie die Impulse der Vorwoche nutzen und das Instrument vom lokalen Hoch vom 2. Mai zurückziehen. Der Markt schätzt das Risiko eines Rückgangs des globalen BIP aufgrund der raschen Korrektur der Kreditkosten durch die führenden Regulierungsbehörden ein, die die Rekordinflation in den Regionen bekämpfen wollen.So hat die US-Notenbank in den ersten Maitagen den Zinssatz erneut um 0,25 % auf den Zielwert von 5,25 % erhöht, entgegen den Signalen aus dem Bankensektor, dass die Krise anhält. Unterdessen wurden die für Ende letzter Woche angekündigten regelmäßigen Gespräche zwischen US-Regierungschef Joe Biden und Kongressabgeordneten über die Anpassung der Schuldenobergrenze nach langwierigen Beratungen auf die erste Hälfte dieser Woche verschoben. Sollte keine Einigung erzielt werden, wird das Finanzministerium ab dem 1. Juni eine Reihe von Verpflichtungen gegenüber der Regierung nicht mehr in vollem Umfang bedienen.Widerstandsniveaus: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Unterstützungsniveaus: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...