USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and ...
GBP/USD: the market is preparing for a report on inflation in BritainThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2633 mark, showing a decline against the background of the continued strengthening of the US currency. The dynamics of the pair remains uncertain, due to the growing volatility ahead of key macroeconomic events.Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of inflation data in the UK, scheduled for Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 1.7% to 2.2%, exceeding the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%. This may strengthen the arguments for postponing interest rate cuts, especially given the current situation in the real estate market. Data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. indicate an increase in the average interest rate on a five-year fixed mortgage to 5.4955% against 5.4205% a week earlier, which increases the burden on households.Additional pressure on the UK economy is exerted by the tax increase announced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This decision complicates the choice for the Bank of England: either to maintain a "dovish" position to support business, or to strengthen measures to control inflation. Last week, Catherine Mann, a member of the board of the Bank of England, spoke out for the need to hold the current rate in order to reduce the risks of falling purchasing power, including against the background of possible changes in global trade policy after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2890.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan does not abandon the tight monetary policyThe USD/JPY pair shows a correction within the framework of an uptrend, trading near the 154.63 mark, which is associated with the strengthening of the position of the US currency against the background of increased expectations regarding monetary policy.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, commented on the situation for the first time after the conclusion of the US presidential election. He stressed that the regulator is ready to consider the possibility of further interest rate increases if key economic indicators meet forecasts. Ueda also noted that the current rate decision will depend on external factors, including the outcome of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. According to estimates, about 55% of experts believe that the Bank of Japan may raise the rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year, especially if the Fed decides to keep its rate at the same level. However, some analysts believe that the Japanese regulator may take a wait-and-see position due to potential risks.Among such risks, there is a slowdown in economic growth in China, which is an important trading partner of Japan, as well as the possibility of introducing new tariff barriers by the administration of US President Donald Trump. These measures may put pressure on Japan's export sector, which could strengthen the weakening of the yen. Nevertheless, despite external factors, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its commitment to a "hawkish" approach, trying to maintain economic stability in the face of external challenges.Resistance levels: 155.40, 158.30.Support levels: 153.60, 150.70.AUD/USD: the pair is moving towards an annual lowThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend, trading near the 0.6464 mark. Despite attempts by the Australian dollar to strengthen under the influence of favorable macroeconomic statistics, it is still close to its summer lows, reflecting continued pressure from global factors.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October. Employment growth amounted to 36.8 thousand, increasing the total figure to 14.537 million people. Full-time employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and part-time employment added 6.2 thousand, reaching 4.499 million. At the same time, the number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand, reaching 623.5 thousand people. The employment-to-total population ratio remained at 64.4%, while the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. These data indicate the stability of the labor market, but at the same time reflect the limited pace of its growth.Experts from the National Bank of Australia have revised their expectations regarding the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If earlier it was predicted that the regulator would start lowering interest rates in February, now analysts believe that monetary policy easing is postponed until at least May. This is due to the continued tense situation in the labor market and the risks of a re-acceleration of inflation. Such an approach by the RBA can support the national currency in the long term, but in the short term, the Australian dollar remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and global economic uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 18, gold quotes show an upward trend, trading around $2,591.16 per troy ounce, which is 1.2% higher than the previous session.The rise in gold prices is due to the suspension of the strengthening of the US dollar, which rose by 1.6% last week, but has now stabilized. The weakness of the dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Investors are waiting for speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week to get more information about the future trajectory of interest rates. According to forecasts, the Fed's rhetoric in December will be less mild, which may prepare the market for a possible rate hold at the current level in January. At least seven Fed representatives are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, US retail sales data for October showed an increase of 0.3%, which exceeds analysts' expectations and indicates the stability of the economy.Geopolitical events also have an impact on the gold market. The US presidential administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, which is a significant change in US policy and may increase tensions in the region. Such events traditionally increase the demand for safe assets, which include gold.Resistance levels: $2,600, $2,620.Support levels: $2,580, ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growthAs of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factorsDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rateDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.Gold market analysisAs of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.Support levels: $2,725.00, ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...