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US market: overview and forecast for April 29. GDP is declining
NASDAQ 100, index, S&P 500, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Meta Platforms, stock, CSI 300, index, Chevron, stock, Qualcomm, stock, Eli Lilly, stock, US market: overview and forecast for April 29. GDP is declining The market the day beforeThe session on April 28, the main American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose by 2.47% to 4,288 points, the Dow Jones gained 1.85%, the high-tech Nasdaq rebounded by 3.06%. All 11 sectors of the index closed in positive territory. IT companies (+4.04%), telecoms (+3.88%) and representatives of the energy industry (+3.13%) looked better than others.Company newsInstagram Facebook (FB: +17.6%; Meta Platforms Inc.'s activities on the sale of Facebook and Instagram products on the territory of the Russian Federation are prohibited on the grounds of extremist activity) reported revenue for the first quarter and presented a forecast for the new reporting period worse than expected. Since the beginning of the year, the shares have lost 50%. Despite concerns about competition with TikTok, management emphasized the positive dynamics of audience engagement and reduced operating costs. In addition, revenue growth is expected to accelerate in the third quarter.Qualcomm's results (QCOM: +9.7%) for the first quarter exceeded consensus, despite some weakness in China. In cooperation with Samsung and Android, the company is actively increasing the share of content in phones, expecting an increase of 50% in 2022.Eli Lilly (LLY: +4.3%) reported revenue and profit growth for the first quarter, and also released the results of a study of the anti-obesity drug SURMOUNT-1 (Tircepatide): at the highest dose, patients lost up to 23% of their body weight. The obesity treatment market is $5 billion, and the drug looks competitive.We expectOn April 28, negative data on a decline in real GDP in the United States was released, amounting to 1.4% QoQ, with expectations of growth of 1.1%. Thus, the first drop in GDP was recorded since the introduction of lockdown in the second quarter of 2020. According to a preliminary estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the US economy expanded by 6.9%. The latest data signal an apparently inflated forecast of economic growth from the IMF. Earlier in April, this international organization had already published revised growth expectations for the global and American economies, lowering estimates from 4.2% to 3.6% and from 4.0% to 3.7%, respectively. These forecasts serve as a guideline for a wide range of economic agents, including banks and investment companies. Accordingly, overstating forecast data distorts estimates of the real value of assets, many of which are directly correlated with economic growth. The decline in production capacity has already been recorded in the raw materials sector, so there are additional risks associated with a possible recession in the United States.The statistics published today are based on initial data, which are subject to further revision by the source agency. An updated estimate of GDP for the first quarter will be presented on May 26, 2022.The yields of two- and 10-year treasuries increased by 3 bps and 2 bps, to 2.64% and 2.86%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year securities decreased by one point, to 2.90%.Trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today on the occasion of a national holiday. At the end of the session on April 28, the Chinese CSI 300 added 2.43%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng rose by 4.01%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 0.80% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $107.6 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,888 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4300-4350 points.MacrostatisticsImportant macro statistics are not expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose 2 points to 43.Technical pictureAfter the breakdown of the support line at 4,200 points, the S&P 500 continued to test the lows of March. The RSI, which has approached the overbought zone, and the MACD signals confirm the strength of the "bearish" trend. Against the background of strong reporting by major players and especially in anticipation of the releases of companies in the technology sector, the broad market index may return to the green zone, rising to the 50-day moving average located at 4380 points.ReportsToday, one of the largest integrated oil and gas companies Chevron (CVX) will present its first quarter reports. We expect strong results due to higher prices for oil, gas and petroleum products. Chevron's revenue is expected to grow by 60% YoY and 6.3% QoQ, reaching $51 billion, and adjusted net earnings per share will rise by 280% YoY and 33.6% QoQ, to $3.42. Net debt may decrease by $1 billion. Investors will be interested in estimates of losses and the volume of asset write-offs in connection with military operations in Ukraine, as well as losses of the Kazakh joint venture Tengizchevroil incurred as a result of an accident at the export terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Company. In our opinion, Chevron shares are trading above fair value, so positive reporting can be used to fix ...
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US market: overview and forecast for April 28. The focus is on data on the state of the real estate market
S&P 500, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Alphabet, stock, Visa, stock, US market: overview and forecast for April 28. The focus is on data on the state of the real estate market The market the day beforeThe main American stock indexes ended the trading session on April 27 with weak growth. The S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 4,184 points, the Nasdaq lost only 0.01%, the Dow Jones rose 0.19%. The energy and raw materials industries looked better than the market, which added 1.48% each. Among the outsiders were the communications sector (-2.62%) and real estate (-0.68%).Company newsEnphase Energy (ENPH: +7.72%) surpassed consensus revenue and profit forecasts, overcoming the negative impact of supply chain disruptions and expanding its presence in Europe. Management also presented a strong guidance for the current quarter.Visa (V: +6.47%) once again demonstrated strong growth in the volume of payments and profits, exceeding analysts' expectations, despite the negative impact of high inflation. Withdrawal from the Russian market did not put significant pressure on the metrics of the payment network.Alphabet (GOOGL: -3.67%) did not meet expectations in terms of revenue and EPS for the first quarter, reporting a slowdown in the growth of YouTube advertising revenue due to the negative impact of geopolitics. The company announced a new $70 billion buy back program.We expectThe latest data on the state of the real estate market in the United States turned out to be weaker than expected. The index of incomplete sales in the secondary housing market in March adjusted more than expected — by 1.2% mom and 8.2% YoY, reaching the lowest level since May last year. The National Association of Realtors of the USA (NAR) notes that the reduction in the number of signed contracts for the purchase of housing indicates a trend of normalization of the market. Rising mortgage lending rates and limited refinancing opportunities have become key factors in cooling demand for real estate. The average mortgage rate for 30 years in the United States has already returned to the levels of 2011, reaching 5.11%. This year, NAR expects sales to decline by 9% YoY. Although the cost of housing is still held at high levels, annual price growth is expected to slow down to 8% compared to 17.1% in 2021. In the latest report, one of the leading US developers D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) noted that although the number of applications for mortgage loans is declining, demand still exceeds supply in the market, as instability in the supply of raw materials and materials continues to put pressure on the pace of construction. At the same time, Goldman Sachs expects construction volumes to grow by 5% this year, despite a decrease in the forecast of real capital investment. Thus, cooling demand and filling the supply deficit as supplies normalize in the market can contribute to a gradual rebalancing and slowing down the growth of housing prices as an inflationary factor.The indices of the main stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region closed trading on April 28 in the black. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.75%, China's CSI 300 rose 0.66%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.65%. EuroStoxx 50 gained 1.90% from the opening of trading.The price of Brent crude oil futures dropped to $105 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,885 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4180-4260 points.MacrostatisticsData on the dynamics of US GDP for the first quarter will be published today. The economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.1% QoQ compared to 6.9% QoQ in October-December 2021.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped 1 point to 41.Technical pictureAfter the breakdown of the support line at 4,200 points, the S&P 500 continued to test the lows of March. The RSI, which has approached the oversold zone, and the MACD signals confirm the strength of the "bearish" trend. A number of already published positive reports and the upcoming release of financial results of large corporations can provide the benchmark with short-term growth drivers. If the Fed meeting does not bring surprises, the index may begin to recover. The nearest resistance is located at the level of 4,300 ...
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US market: overview and forecast for April 6. The "hawkish" attitude of Fed alarming investors
NASDAQ 100, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Carnival, stock, US market: overview and forecast for April 6. The \ The market the day beforeThe session on April 5, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 declined by 1.26% to 4,525 points, the Dow Jones fell by 0.80%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 2.26%. The leaders of the fall were issuers from the cyclical consumer goods sector (-2.35%) and technology companies (-2.19%). Utilities companies traded better than the market (+0.67%).Company newsCarnival Corporation & plc (CCL: +2.4%) stated that the week from March 28 to April 3 was the record number of bookings in the company's history.JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU: -7.08%) offered $3.6 billion for the purchase of Spirit Airlines Inc (SAVE: +22.42%).UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH: +1.52%) and Change Healthcare Inc (CHNG: +7.38%) postponed a merger transaction of almost $13 billion.ExpectationsInvestors' main attention was focused on yesterday's speech by Fed Board member Lael Brainard in Minneapolis, who stated the need to fight inflation by raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet at a faster pace. Thus, it is possible that these actions will be taken already at the May FOMC meeting. A decrease in liquidity in the financial system may increase volatility in the quotations of equity securities. Additional pressure on the stock market was exerted by the statement of the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Esther George, about a possible increase in the key rate by 50 bps already in May.The "hawkish" statements of Fed officials, in all likelihood, led to a weakening of quotations of technology companies and an increase in government bond yields. The indicator for 10-year treasuries stopped at 2.55%, which is 14 bps higher than the level of April 4. The yield of "two-year-olds" increased by 9 bps, to 2.51%, the indicator for 30-year securities increased to 2.58%.Trading on April 5 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 declined by 0.29%, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.58%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2.03%. EuroStoxx 50 has been declining by 1.20% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $106.64 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1922.9 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4520-4570 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index fell by one point to 48.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 adjusted to the support level around 4,500 points, but managed to stop above this mark. The RSI and MACD continue to point to strong buyer positions. Currently, the nearest support for the benchmark is at the level of the 200-day moving average. Following the results of the trading session, we expect a possible return of the index to ...
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Daily Forecast for March 31, 2022 for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold & Cryptocurrencies
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Gold, mineral, Daily Forecast for March 31, 2022 for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold & Cryptocurrencies Euro/DollarThe euro rose against the US dollar to the level of 1.1165. There was a positive trend in trading on Wednesday.After reaching the maximum values in March, the yield of ten-year US bonds fell slightly to 2.351%.The next round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine gave hope that military operations should stop soon. This caused a wave of positivity in the financial markets.Meanwhile, in the Eurozone in March, the composite index of business and consumer confidence fell from 113.9 points to 108.5 points, which did not justify the forecasts of experts who expected a smoother decline to 109 points.Such a sharp deterioration in the indicator is primarily due to record inflation rates and the military conflict in Ukraine.On Thursday, traders expect the publication of data from the labor market of the United States and the Eurozone, information on the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as a change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits.Pound/DollarThe currency pair is consolidating above the support border of the European session, around 1.3127. The course is strongly influenced by the news background. The key resistance level at the moment is 1.3202.Meanwhile, the yield of ten-year British bonds has approached the maximum values of March and is now at 1.668%.Today, the dollar is under pressure from other world currencies. According to the final data of the Ministry of Trade, in the last reporting quarter of 2021, the economy of the United States grew by 6.9% year-on-year, and not by 7%, as previously reported. Experts expected that the indicator would be revised upwards to 7.1%. As for consumer spending, in the fourth quarter it increased not by 3.1%, but by 2.5%. Imports soared by 17.9%, exports rose by 22.4%.Today, traders expect the release of British GDP, data from the labor market of the United States, information on the cost of residential real estate.GoldThe banking metal is still reacting to the movement of the US dollar. After a week of growth, gold gained a foothold near the $1,928 per ounce mark. Important information for the market is the US unemployment index for March. Strong data will help reduce the Fed's purchases of securities.The trading environment ended with a fall in the US stock market, due to negative dynamics from the financial, consumer services, and technology sectors. The Dow Jones fell by 0.19%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.63%.Inflation continues to gain momentum. This month, consumer prices in Germany rose by 7.6% year-on-year, while analysts expected a rise of no more than 6.7%. In February, the indicator was 5.5%.In Japan, last month there was a decrease in retail sales by 0.8% compared to February 2021, which did not meet the forecasts of analysts who reported a decrease of 0.3%.CryptocurrenciesBTC is currently in the price range of $48051 – $46810 with a strong resistance level of $48051. Most likely, traders are waiting for information from the American labor market.According to the results of Wednesday, the capitalization of the crypto market amounted to 2.15 trillion US dollars, while on Tuesday there were figures of 1.90.The Opera browser now supports bitcoin and other digital currencies. Solana and BTC are currently only available in Opera for Android. Support in the crypto browser should appear within a few months.Cryptocurrencies may be affected by the publication of data from the US labor market, the release of the index of personal consumption expenditures, as well as the level of business activity in the manufacturing ...
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Articles about financial markets

Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023
Gold, mineral, Citibank predicts a decline in the price of gold to $1,500 in 2023 Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
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Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
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Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021
Gold, mineral, Why is Gold declining and what will be the value at the end of 2021 At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...
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