USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, ...
USD/CHF: breakout of 0.8920 will open the way to July peaksLast week, the USD/CHF pair tested the support level of 0.8755 during the correction, after which it began a reversal and is trying to develop an upward momentum.The US currency was supported by positive macroeconomic data: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased from 36.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand in November, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts of 202.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is better than expectations of 0.3%. These indicators strengthen the likelihood of a more cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve to further monetary policy easing.The Swiss franc weakened its position after the publication of inflation data for November. The consumer price index for the month decreased by 0.1%, and in annual terms it was fixed at 0.7%, which turned out to be lower than the projected 0.8%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank may continue to ease monetary policy. The head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, previously announced his readiness to consider the possibility of reducing the interest rate to negative values in order to reduce the attractiveness of the franc as a safe haven asset.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/JPY: Japan's GDP data surpassed forecastsThe USD/JPY pair shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining around the 149.85 mark. The main attention of market participants is focused on macroeconomic data from Japan, which, despite its positive nature, does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the asset.In the third quarter, the Japanese economy showed GDP growth from 0.2% to 0.3% in quarterly terms and from 0.9% to 1.2% annually. However, the GDP deflator slowed from 2.6% to 2.4%, indicating a decrease in inflation expectations, which may complicate the tasks of the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. Business activity indicators also turned out to be higher than expected: the Eco Watchers current situation index rose from 47.5 points to 49.4 points, and the forecast for the development of events reached a similar value, exceeding the previous result of 48.3 points.The data released on Friday turned out to be mixed. The index of leading indicators decreased from 108.9 to 108.6 points, while the index of matching indicators strengthened to 116.5 points. Household spending fell by 1.3% in October, which is better than the projected decline of 2.6%. At the same time, wage growth accelerated to 2.6%, raising expectations about inflation. Against this background, Toyoaki Nakamura, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, stressed the need to take into account the dynamics of salaries and business sentiment of Tankan when making decisions on possible changes in interest rates. Market participants took these statements as a "hawkish" signal, which was reflected in the growth in the yield of 10-year bonds, which increased to 1.065%.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 151.50, 152.22.Support levels: 149.35, 148.64, 148.00, 147.00.Gold market analysisGold shows a smooth decline, falling back to the level of 2640.00 and testing it for a breakdown downwards. Despite the limited number of factors that can radically change the situation in the market, investor activity remains high, which is due to the analysis of Friday's data on the American labor market.Recall that in November, the US economy created 227.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which significantly exceeds the revised October figures of 36.0 thousand (previously 12.0 thousand) and analysts' forecasts of 200.0 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while the average hourly wage remained at 4.0% year-on-year, higher than the forecast of 3.9%, and amounted to 0.4% month-on-month with expectations of 0.3%. Although the data cannot be called unambiguously positive, market participants regarded them as a signal of a possible continuation of the easing of the Federal Reserve's policy at the December meeting.According to the latest data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in December rose to 87.0%, whereas a week ago it did not exceed 70.0%. An additional confirmation of positive expectations was the growth of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 71.8 points in November to 74.0 points in December, which turned out to be higher than both the results of the previous month and preliminary forecasts of 73.0 points.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00, 2589.61.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are approaching the 67.00 mark, maintaining a downward trend in the global market. This movement is due to the expectations of market participants that OPEC+ will extend the current restrictions on oil production for another three months.The decision to maintain the cuts is related to the cartel's desire to avoid instability in the winter. During this time, the organization's member countries plan to resolve issues related to incomplete fulfillment of obligations, after which the situation with global demand, especially from China, will become clearer. Experts note that the slowdown in China's economic growth this year has had a negative impact on energy consumption. In addition, the country's gradual transition to electric cars continues to reduce demand for traditional hydrocarbons.This week, the attention of market participants will be focused on data on oil reserves. According to forecasts, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) will indicate an increase in reserves by 1,232 million barrels, as it was a week earlier, and statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will show an increase of 1,400 million barrels, which will be a noticeable contrast after a decrease of 5,073 million barrels in the previous period.Resistance levels: 68.10, 71.80.Support levels: 66.50, ...
USD/CHF: reports on falling orders and sales in Switzerland affect the exchange rateThe USD/CHF pair shows multidirectional dynamics, trading near the level of 0.8910. After a significant increase at the end of last week, on Friday, when the US dollar updated local highs since July 16 due to strong macroeconomic data, the instrument opened the current week with a slight gap down.The Swiss industry is experiencing difficulties against the background of declining demand from European partners and the strengthening of the national currency, which negatively affects exports. According to the results of a Swissmechanic study, capacity utilization in small enterprises, providing about 18% of GDP, fell to 81%, the lowest level since January 2021. In the first nine months of this year, sales of manufactured goods decreased by 4.2%, and one in three companies in the sector has already cut staff. Many companies may continue this trend, especially if the new US President Donald Trump fulfills his promises to increase import duties, which will further complicate export operations. Last week, pressure on the franc also intensified due to comments by the head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel. He stressed the regulator's determination to keep inflation within the target range of 0.0–2.0%, which plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the Swiss economy.Investors are waiting for the publication of data on gross domestic product (GDP) and the KOF index of leading indicators for November, which will be released on Friday at 10:00 (GMT+2). Experts predict that GDP growth will remain at 0.7% on a quarterly basis and 1.8% on an annual basis, which may have a restrained effect on the franc exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827, 0.8800.NZD/USD: Westpac expects the exchange rate to fall to 0.58 USD by the end of the yearDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is trading around 0.5850 after opening with a small positive gap, which followed an active decline at the end of last week. However, the confidence of buyers is gradually weakening, as there are no significant factors in the market that can support the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. Last week, the instrument reached a one-year low amid increasing concerns from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) about the slowdown in the economic recovery and the potential consequences of the introduction of new trade duties, which Donald Trump plans to implement after taking office as president of the United States. In light of these circumstances, analysts expect that the RBNZ may reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once — from the current level of 4.75% to 4.25%. In turn, the specialists of Westpac Banking Corp. The New Zealand dollar is forecast to weaken to $0.58 by the end of the year, and in the most pessimistic scenario — to $ 0.55 in the coming months.Meanwhile, New Zealand's foreign trade data for October showed an increase in exports from $5.01 billion to $5.77 billion, while imports increased from $7.06 billion to $7.31 billion. This led to a slight decrease in the trade deficit — from -9.15 billion to -8.96 billion dollars. However, domestic consumption figures remain weak: retail sales in the third quarter decreased by 0.1% after a decline of 1.2% in the second quarter, and sales excluding cars decreased by 0.8% compared with a previous decline of 1.0%. These data confirm the continued weakness of the consumer sector and the lack of signs of an early recovery in economic activity.Resistance levels: 0.5858, 0.5885, 0.5920, 0.5950.Support levels: 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750, 0.5720.AUD/USD: softening of the RBA's rhetoric is forecast for the end of springThe AUD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, remaining within the sideways trend at 0.6523 amid the recovery of the US currency's positions.Analysts at Westpac Banking Corp. They believe that significant changes in the dynamics of the Australian dollar in the near future are unlikely. In their latest note, experts revised forecasts regarding the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): expectations of an interest rate cut, previously scheduled for February or March, have now been shifted to May. This decision is due to steady inflation and a stable situation in the labor market, which give the regulator grounds to keep the current rate at 4.35%. According to experts, a reduction in the cost of borrowing will be possible only with a confident return of inflation to the range of 2.0–3.0%, which is predicted no earlier than the second half of spring.An additional confirmation of this scenario is the statistics on business activity published in November. The index in the manufacturing industry showed a slight increase from 47.3 to 49.4 points, but remained in the contraction zone. In the service sector, on the contrary, the indicators decreased from 51.0 to 49.6 points, and the composite index fell from 50.2 to 49.4 points, reflecting the general slowdown in economic activity. All these data indicate that the RBA will continue to maintain a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6670.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6410.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair rolled back from the maximum level of 2710.0 amid increased geopolitical tensions and lower global bond yields. The appointment of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, known for his cautious approach to financial policy, has put pressure on the market. Over the week, the yield on key 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell from 4.441% to 4.352%. At the same time, expectations regarding the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve are being adjusted: the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has increased to 56.2% compared with Friday's forecasts of 52.7%.Geopolitical events remain the main driver of the gold price movement. Israel's military actions in Lebanon, as well as the aggravation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, are forcing investors to increase their positions in safe haven assets. This is confirmed by data from the largest commodity exchanges: interest in gold contracts has increased significantly. According to CME, since November 21, the volume of transactions has steadily increased, reaching 456.0 thousand contracts on Friday. Although this figure is lower than the peak value of 602.0 thousand recorded on November 6, it is still significantly higher than the average level of the previous week, which amounted to 310.0–330.0 thousand contracts.Resistance levels: 2713.0, 2791.0.Support levels: 2642.0, ...
GBP/USD: the market is preparing for a report on inflation in BritainThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2633 mark, showing a decline against the background of the continued strengthening of the US currency. The dynamics of the pair remains uncertain, due to the growing volatility ahead of key macroeconomic events.Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of inflation data in the UK, scheduled for Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 1.7% to 2.2%, exceeding the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%. This may strengthen the arguments for postponing interest rate cuts, especially given the current situation in the real estate market. Data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. indicate an increase in the average interest rate on a five-year fixed mortgage to 5.4955% against 5.4205% a week earlier, which increases the burden on households.Additional pressure on the UK economy is exerted by the tax increase announced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This decision complicates the choice for the Bank of England: either to maintain a "dovish" position to support business, or to strengthen measures to control inflation. Last week, Catherine Mann, a member of the board of the Bank of England, spoke out for the need to hold the current rate in order to reduce the risks of falling purchasing power, including against the background of possible changes in global trade policy after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2890.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan does not abandon the tight monetary policyThe USD/JPY pair shows a correction within the framework of an uptrend, trading near the 154.63 mark, which is associated with the strengthening of the position of the US currency against the background of increased expectations regarding monetary policy.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, commented on the situation for the first time after the conclusion of the US presidential election. He stressed that the regulator is ready to consider the possibility of further interest rate increases if key economic indicators meet forecasts. Ueda also noted that the current rate decision will depend on external factors, including the outcome of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. According to estimates, about 55% of experts believe that the Bank of Japan may raise the rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year, especially if the Fed decides to keep its rate at the same level. However, some analysts believe that the Japanese regulator may take a wait-and-see position due to potential risks.Among such risks, there is a slowdown in economic growth in China, which is an important trading partner of Japan, as well as the possibility of introducing new tariff barriers by the administration of US President Donald Trump. These measures may put pressure on Japan's export sector, which could strengthen the weakening of the yen. Nevertheless, despite external factors, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its commitment to a "hawkish" approach, trying to maintain economic stability in the face of external challenges.Resistance levels: 155.40, 158.30.Support levels: 153.60, 150.70.AUD/USD: the pair is moving towards an annual lowThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend, trading near the 0.6464 mark. Despite attempts by the Australian dollar to strengthen under the influence of favorable macroeconomic statistics, it is still close to its summer lows, reflecting continued pressure from global factors.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October. Employment growth amounted to 36.8 thousand, increasing the total figure to 14.537 million people. Full-time employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and part-time employment added 6.2 thousand, reaching 4.499 million. At the same time, the number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand, reaching 623.5 thousand people. The employment-to-total population ratio remained at 64.4%, while the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. These data indicate the stability of the labor market, but at the same time reflect the limited pace of its growth.Experts from the National Bank of Australia have revised their expectations regarding the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If earlier it was predicted that the regulator would start lowering interest rates in February, now analysts believe that monetary policy easing is postponed until at least May. This is due to the continued tense situation in the labor market and the risks of a re-acceleration of inflation. Such an approach by the RBA can support the national currency in the long term, but in the short term, the Australian dollar remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and global economic uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 18, gold quotes show an upward trend, trading around $2,591.16 per troy ounce, which is 1.2% higher than the previous session.The rise in gold prices is due to the suspension of the strengthening of the US dollar, which rose by 1.6% last week, but has now stabilized. The weakness of the dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Investors are waiting for speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week to get more information about the future trajectory of interest rates. According to forecasts, the Fed's rhetoric in December will be less mild, which may prepare the market for a possible rate hold at the current level in January. At least seven Fed representatives are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, US retail sales data for October showed an increase of 0.3%, which exceeds analysts' expectations and indicates the stability of the economy.Geopolitical events also have an impact on the gold market. The US presidential administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, which is a significant change in US policy and may increase tensions in the region. Such events traditionally increase the demand for safe assets, which include gold.Resistance levels: $2,600, $2,620.Support levels: $2,580, ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Experts of the largest US bank Citigroup reported that, according to their estimates, gold in 2023 will cost about $1,500 per troy ounce. They also assumed that the average price of this precious metal in the coming year will be close to $1,685. However, analysts of the American bank expect an increase in the value of gold in this winter period to a range from $1,825 to $1,850 per ounce. However, in the future, the value of gold will begin to decline. Citigroup is 60% confident in this forecast for the next two years, while there is another version of their forecast, in which experts are 30% confident. And this option provides for an increase in gold prices to $2,100 in the middle of 2022, which can be realized subject to a significant increase in private and public debt. During trading on Tuesday, December 14, gold declined in price by 0.01% to $1,788.15 per ounce. The value of silver decreased by 0.16%, amounting to ...
Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
At the height of the 2020 crisis caused by COVID-19, the price of gold soared to a record $2,073 per ounceAt that time, some experts predicted a further increase in gold to $2300-2500 per ounce, as bidders sought to protect their capital from a sharp market collapse and growing uncertainty.But in the fall of 2020, the market situation changed dramatically. Active vaccination of the population against COVID-19, gradual adaptation to new working conditions and the subsequent recovery of the world economy have significantly weakened interest in gold and other protective assets.In 2021, the news background for gold remains mostly negative. The main attention of the market was focused on the further actions of the Fed. Large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have significantly increased inflationary risks, due to which the profitability of long-term American treasuries has increased sharply. From January to March 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 0.95 to 1.70%. Over the same period of time, the dollar index strengthened by about 4.5%. Gold has lost its investment attractiveness, as the strong dollar has made the precious metal more expensive and active against the background of the increased guaranteed yield of American debt securities.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?From April to May, the pressure on the precious metal eased somewhat. In just two months, gold quotes showed an impressive growth of more than 13.5%, but, as subsequent events showed, it was the death agony of the bulls, who obviously lost their strategic initiative.The market is growing expectations that the world's leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, will begin to gradually curtail incentives, which will help strengthen the dollar and limit inflation risks. It is obvious that in these conditions, the potential for a recovery in the value of gold will be very limited.Of course, the continuing risks of the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and local pullbacks on stock markets can lead to a short-term increase in the value of gold. But a return to the highs of mid-2020 in the medium term is hardly worth counting on. Although the volatility of gold will remain very high and gold will still be the most popular instrument for trading.Despite the slower than previously expected pace of recovery of the labor market in the United States, representatives of the Fed are increasingly making statements about the need to curtail incentives. The latest comments from the Fed representatives suggest that the regulator may begin the process of reducing stimulus measures this year, which may support the US dollar. Gold, which has a close inverse correlation with the dollar, will obviously be under pressure.The hopes that the demand for precious metals will be supported by high inflation risks are not yet confirmed by the real situation on the market. Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the US, the EU and other regions has risen to multi-year highs, while the price of gold has declined since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the statement that when inflation increases, investors always buy gold is fundamentally wrong. Traders will be happy to buy stocks, bonds and other high-yield assets if they are sure that they will protect them from risk better than precious metals.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhat is the forecast given by the world banksSociete Generale experts note that locally the market remains bullish amid the weakening of the dollar, but in the future gold may come under pressure. According to the baseline scenario, the average price of gold in 2022 will be $1,750 per ounce. An increase in gold prices is possible only in the event of the beginning of another crisis in the world economy. In this case, the price of gold may rise to the level of $2,160. The third scenario assumes an acceleration of the global economic recovery, which may significantly weaken interest in gold and other protective assets. In this case, the price of gold may fall to the level of $1,600.Analysts also predict a decline in gold prices. They believe that the precious metal will remain under pressure in the coming months, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States will indicate a further economic recovery. The risks associated with the new COVID-19 "Delta" strain may deter the Federal Reserve from earlier curtailing incentives, but gold is unlikely to extract large dividends from this.Bank traders believe that the fair price range for gold is $1735-1845. Now the price is in the middle of this range and the further short-term vector of movement will depend, first of all, on the rhetoric of the Fed. Tougher statements may provoke a new wave of sales.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsWhat does technical analysis sayOn the weekly chart, we note a false breakdown of the previous historical maximum. The subsequent pullback of the price down indicates the formation of a strong reversal formation, within which we can see a price decline to the area of 1500.00. For this, the bears need to push through support at the level of 1690.00.Therefore, as long as the price remains below the 1900.00 mark, the prospects for a long-term movement of gold remain bearish.XAUUSD, 1WOn the daily chart, the picture for the bulls is also not comforting. The price is currently under a strong resistance level of 1835.00. The probability that the bulls will be able to break through this level from the first approach is very insignificant. But even if buyers are able to break through this mark in the future, the growth potential will be limited by the next strong resistance at 1900.00.Read more: What timeframe is it best to trade onThe base scenario assumes the development of a moderate downward movement in the direction of support at 1685.00. At the same time, in the range of 1685.00–1835.00, the price can be held for quite a long time.XAUUSD, DailyThe medium-term scenario of price movement also indicates the development of a downward movement. On H4, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance even at the level of 1800.00. Therefore, while the price is kept below this mark, the bearish scenario of movement with a target of 1732.00 remains a priority.XAUUSD, 4HYou can count on the growth of quotations only after the price is fixed above 1800.00. In this case, the potential for the development of an ascending wave will be limited to the level of 1835.00Read more: How to trade on the Forex ...