USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, ...
EUR/USD: movement below the resistance line of the channel 1.1260–1.0950The EUR/USD pair maintains an uptrend, trading at 1.1115, and updates the lows of September 13 against the background of high volatility after the announcement of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.Despite stable macroeconomic indicators in the eurozone, the euro is showing a corrective movement, trying to return to growth. In August, the consumer price index in the region increased by only 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.2%. Core inflation also fell from 2.9% to 2.8%, which supported the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%. Nevertheless, with inflation above 2.2%, the risks to the economy remain.The US dollar is near an annual low, trading at 100.70 on the USDX index. Yesterday, the Fed representatives reduced the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points to 4.75–5.00%, which coincided with the expectations of most analysts. The decision was supported by positive data on the real estate market: the number of construction permits issued in August increased from 1.406 million to 1.475 million, and the volume of construction of new homes increased from 1.237 million to 1.356 million, indicating a retreat from historical lows. The Fed also revised the forecast for the unemployment rate for 2024 from 4.0% to 4.4%, and for 2025 from 4.2% to 4.4%. Experts expect another interest rate cut before the end of the year, most likely in December, to give the regulator time to assess the impact of the measures already taken.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1260.Support levels: 1.1090, 1.1000.GBP/USD: attempt to break through the 1.3258 levelThe GBP/USD pair is holding near the 1.3259 level after the announcement of the results of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.The Bank of England's monetary policy decision is expected to be published today at 13:00 (GMT+2). Experts assume that the interest rate will remain at 5.00%. However, if the statements of the representatives of the Bank of England turn out to be "hawkish", this may give the pound additional support. Investors' attention is also focused on the recent UK inflation data for August. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% after a decrease of -0.2% in the previous month, maintaining the annual rate at 2.2%. The core CPI index accelerated to 3.6%, which exceeded market expectations of 3.5%. The retail price index (RPI) also showed an increase — from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis, and slightly adjusted to 3.5% on an annual basis.The long-term trend for GBP/USD remains upward. After reaching a maximum in the area of 1.3258 in August, the pair went into a downward correction, which stopped at the support level of 1.3005. A new upward movement began from this point, and the August maximum was updated yesterday. If the pair can gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3258, further growth is likely with a target at 1.3400. A breakdown of this mark will open the way to the February 2022 maximum around 1.3630. If the pair does not overcome the 1.3258 level, we can expect a downward correction with the first target at 1.3605. If the price falls below this mark, a deeper decline to the support of 1.2857 is possible.Resistance levels: 1.3258, 1.3400, 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3005, 1.2857, 1.2680.AUD/USD: RBA announced a three-year project on wholesale digital currenciesThe AUD/USD pair is showing steady growth, continuing to form a steady "bullish" momentum in the short term. Quotes are trying to overcome the level of 0.6800, which previously could not be fixed. The pair was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points, which was the first such step since 2020. Additionally, the Fed revised down its inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy easing by the end of the year. However, the market reaction was restrained, as participants had already taken into account the results of the September meeting at current prices. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market's attention will be focused on statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States: it is expected that the number of initial applications will remain at 230 thousand, and repeat applications by 1.85 million.The Australian dollar is strengthening on the back of labor market data for August. The number of employees increased by 47.5 thousand, exceeding the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 25 thousand. At the same time, the indicator of full employment decreased by 3.1 thousand, and part-time employment increased by 50.6 thousand, leveling out the decrease last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, which was in line with expectations.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has launched a three-year program to develop a wholesale digital currency. After analyzing the limitations and benefits of a retail CBDC designed for mass use, the RBA decided to focus on the wholesale application of digital currency. The project aims to explore new applications, operational models and the impact of digital currency on the Australian financial system. The regulator suggests that wholesale CBDC can significantly improve the efficiency and sustainability of markets by reducing operational risks and reducing the costs associated with mediation.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6732, 0.6700.USDX: Dollar index shows mixed dynamicsThe USDX index is near the 100.85 mark, demonstrating high trading activity, which is associated with the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.For the first time since 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.00%. This decision was in line with market expectations, although until the last moment investors doubted whether the regulator would decide on such a significant reduction, given the current inflation risks. Previously, rates were in the range of 5.25–5.50% from July 2023 — this is the highest level since 2001. The Fed has been closely monitoring economic indicators, aiming to bring inflation closer to the target level of 2.0%. In addition, the regulator revised GDP growth forecasts: for 2024, they were reduced from 2.1% to 2.0%, while expectations for 2025 remained at 2.0%. Inflation estimates have been adjusted downward: this year the forecast decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%, and next year — from 2.3% to 2.1%. The forecasts also reflect a possible deterioration in the labor market situation — the unemployment rate in 2024 was revised from 4.0% to 4.4%, and in 2025 — from 4.2% to 4.4%. The median forecast of FOMC members suggests that by the end of 2024, the interest rate may decrease to 4.38%, and by the end of 2025 to 3.38%. However, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, further decisions will be made taking into account incoming macroeconomic data.Resistance levels: 100.80, 101.20, 101.67, 102.00.Support levels: 100.35, 100.00, 99.50, ...
Давление со стороны продавцов на доллар США сохранялось в понедельник утром, так как индекс USD упал до 102 пунктов, самого низкого уровня с начала января.Инвесторы будут внимательно следить за заявлениями представителей центрального банка, и в экономическом календаре не будет никаких важных данных. Склонность рынка к риску и падение доходности казначейских облигаций США в совокупности привели к снижению курса доллара-убежища в пятницу.Доллар США потерял позиции и не может восстановить свою силу, несмотря на более значительный, чем ожидалось, рост потребительских настроений в США, о котором сообщалось во второй половине дня.Пятую неделю подряд индекс доллара США завершил неделю ниже, чем начал, упав более чем на 0,5 процента в пятницу. Доллару США было непросто сохранить свои позиции в преддверии выходных из-за повышения склонности к риску и падения доходности казначейских облигаций США.Доходность 10-летних облигаций США остается отрицательной, ниже 3 процентов, в утренние часы в Европе в понедельник, а фьючерсы на американский фондовый индекс практически не изменились в течение дня.Желтый металл впервые преодолел отметку в 2500 долларов за унцию, и иена внезапно взлетела выше, оказав давление на Nikkei.На возможность смягчения в сентябре намекали члены Федеральной резервной системы Мэри Дейли и Остан Гулсби во время их отсутствия на выходных, и ожидается, что "голубиный" прогноз будет подкреплен протоколами заключительного заседания по вопросам политики на этой неделе. Инвесторы ожидают, что когда председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл выступит в пятницу в Джексон-Хоул, он поднимет вопрос о необходимости сокращения.По словам экономиста Barclays Кристиана Келлера, опасения по поводу инфляции в США, которые доминировали в политических дебатах с тех пор, как цены начали стремительно расти во время пандемии, теперь в значительной степени исчезли, хотя, возможно, еще слишком рано объявлять о победе, и центральные банки, несомненно, поступят мудро, избегая этого в своей официальной риторике. Фьючерсы указывают на 25%-ную вероятность повышения на 50 базисных пунктов со значительным изменением в зависимости от результатов предстоящего отчета о заработной плате.Они полностью рассчитаны на повышение на четверть базисного пункта.Значительный пересмотр в сторону понижения - от 600 000 до миллиона позиций - можно увидеть в ежегодных обновлениях списка вакансий, которые запланированы на эту среду.Однако это, вероятно, преувеличило бы слабость рынка труда. В настоящее время ожидается, что экономика США выйдет из кризиса более мягкой. Фьючерсы на индекс Nasdaq выросли на 0,3%, а фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 - на 0,2% из-за улучшения экономической ситуации на прошлой неделе. Позднее сегодня запланировано выступление Кристофера Уоллера, представителя Федеральной резервной системы, ответственного за политику. Поскольку Уоллер является одним из наиболее агрессивных регуляторов ФРС, отказ от ставок на снижение процентной ставки может укрепить доллар ...
Самое большое падение с 1987 годаАзиатские фондовые индексы не склонны к риску после сокращения числа рабочих мест в США в пятницу. Опасения по поводу рецессии усилились из-за смягчения денежно-кредитной политики ФРС.Индекс NIKKEI 225 пережил самое сильное падение за один день, потеряв за один день более 4400 пунктов. Последнее заседание ФРС прояснило позицию центрального банка, и снижение ставки в сентябре представляется весьма вероятным.Но, вопреки тому, что происходило в недавнем прошлом, когда рынок сплотился из-за мягкой политики ФРС, рынок осознал, что существует больший риск. Последние данные по ВВП свидетельствуют о том, что экономика ускоряется медленнее, и данные по занятости подтверждают это.Опасения по поводу рецессии в США охватывают рынок, и пятничная распродажа перекинулась на открытие торгов на этой неделе. Японские фондовые индексы также борются с ястребиным настроем Банка Японии, повышение на 0,25% ожидалось многими, но не полностью соответствовало прогнозам.В последнем квартале 2024 года ожидается дальнейшее повышение ставок. Большую роль в этом играют недавние опасения многих правительственных чиновников по поводу нежелательных последствий ослабления иены. Последнее повышение произошло после различных призывов защитить иену.Слабая иена негативно сказывается на частном потреблении и оказывает давление на цены на продовольствие и энергоносители. Мандат Банка Японии заключается в сдерживании инфляции, но, как мы видели, слабая иена также вызывает беспокойство у центрального банка.Технический взглядГрафик NIKKEI 225 показывает, что рынок находится в полностью медвежьем тренде. Все последние 3 свечи имеют большой дневной диапазон и длинные тела свечей, что свидетельствует о силе недавней распродажи.Сегодняшняя свеча нашла поддержку на предыдущем минимуме 30,469. Что соответствует падению в октябре 2023 года. Мы видим, что RSI сегодня достиг уровня сильной перепроданности 20,94.Индекс RSI ниже 30 также указывает на то, что рынок демонстрирует сильный импульс. Однако, если индекс RSI закроется выше 30, мы можем ожидать некоторой коррекции на рынке, учитывая уровни перепроданности. Рынок найдет следующее сопротивление на отметке 33 837.Если этот уровень будет пробит, рынок найдет следующую область сопротивления на отметке 35 ...
The annual compensation of CEOs in the United States is breaking records, despite a shortage of workers and inflation. According to MyLogIQ (a provider of analytical products of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), the median salary of executives from the S&P 500 companies reached $14.2 million last year. The salary growth of the majority of company executives was at least 11%.Half of the companies also said that the salary of ordinary employees increased by 3.1% last year, and a third of the companies reported that employee compensation, on the contrary, decreased between 2020 and ...
The past year ended very successfully for the American market: the S&P 500 rose by 26.9%, although initially a more modest increase was expected. So, our optimistic (!) scenario included an increase in the broad market index to only 10%. However, the US stock markets got off to a good start and remained on top with the support of the adoption of infrastructure reform. The economic recovery also turned out to be more active than we expected, and this helped companies to increase revenue and profit more intensively. At the same time, the development of all these trends contributed to the acceleration of inflation, which went far beyond the expectations of the Fed, the market and our forecasts. It was inflation that became the most discussed topic last year and will absolutely remain at the top of the agenda in the first half of 2022.To bring inflation under control, the Fed thought about reducing the balance sheet only at the beginning of this year: even in December 2021, there was no talk about it. The reduction of the balance sheet, combined with a sharper than originally planned increase in rates, can act as a reliable way to curb inflation expectations. These expectations are formed mainly on stock exchanges, which excludes their negative impact on the economy in general and on the labor market in particular. A steady positive trend in the labor market is indicated by data for October, when the number of open vacancies reached a record 11.03 million, 1.5 times exceeding the number of applicants. This ratio was last observed 50 years ago. Together with an increase in logistics efficiency, the restoration of production capacities and the gradual opening of the economy, this will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation. Of course, we have repeatedly talked about the upcoming opening of the economy after the pandemic during the second half of 2021, but this event is delayed due to the appearance of new COVID-19 strains. And yet, the longer the pandemic continues, the closer its end is.After a negative start to the year for most securities in the technology sector and a general correction, investors should consider closing hedging positions that I advised opening at the end of last year. Now is the time to buy a wide range of stocks with a focus on "value" and "quality" companies. The intensive growth of the economy serves as the basis for optimistic expectations regarding revenue and profit. That is why the upcoming reporting season is the strongest driver of the growth of quotations of representatives of the real sector of the economy. Of course, there is also a trend to reduce the cash flows of companies, since there is no effect of a low base and economic growth begins to slow down. However, it is predicted that the S&P 500 companies will increase sales by almost 15%, and their earnings per share will increase by 21.5%. Among the leaders will be the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as the segment of secondary necessities. The momentum for an upward movement in their quotes will be provided by strong results for the fourth quarter and optimistic forecasts for January-March. Separately, I would like to note the financial sector, which will not be able to demonstrate a record increase in revenue and profit, but industry forecasts for 2022 may become one of the most optimistic, taking into account the plans of the Federal Reserve to actively raise the key ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
The German Statistical Office published the final data on the dynamics of consumer prices in October in accordance with European reporting standards. They indicate an acceleration of inflation to 4.6%. The indicator is calculated in relation to the prices that were fixed a year earlier. In monthly terms, consumer prices showed an increase of 0.5%. For comparison: in September, inflation in annual and monthly terms was 4.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The calculation of indicators according to German standards showed an increase in the inflation rate in Germany to a maximum for the period since 1993. It amounted to 4.5% in annual terms. Compared to September, prices rose by 0.5%. Both indicators correspond to the forecasts of the surveyed analysts. By the end of September, inflation was 4.1% compared to the same month last year. In monthly terms, it showed zero dynamics. The largest contribution to the growth of October inflation was made by energy carriers. They have risen in price by 18.6%. The cost of food increased by 4.4%. Prices for services increased by ...