EUR/USD: the pair is moving within the 1.0350–1.0000 channelThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair are in the correction phase, trading around the 1.0305 mark against the background of the weakening of the US currency. After a poor start to the year, the euro is regaining its position, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, key eurozone countries continue to provide information on inflation. In December, the consumer price index in France was 1.3%, remaining at the level of the previous month and coinciding with analysts' expectations. In Spain, inflation accelerated to 2.8% from the previous 2.4%. The consolidated indicator for the eurozone is projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month and reach 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the November level of 2.2%. At the same time, the base index, which excludes the cost of food and energy resources, is likely to be fixed at 0.5%. Increased inflationary pressures may adjust the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), forcing it to reconsider plans to lower interest rates or slow down the pace of their reduction.Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0030.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0530.NZD/USD: New Zealand and the UAE have signed a partnership agreementThe New Zealand dollar is aiming to stay above the 0.5600 level during Asian trading on January 15. The national currency is supported by statistics on the business confidence index provided by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). According to the report, the indicator for the fourth quarter increased by 16.0%, offsetting the previous decrease by -1.0%.Earlier, the strengthening of the New Zealand currency was driven by positive data from the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits in New Zealand increased by 5.3%, which fully offset the 5.2% decrease a month earlier. Meanwhile, exports from China grew by 10.7% year-on-year after the previous growth of 6.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of 7.3%. Imports increased by 1.0% after falling by 3.9%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion, against expectations of $99.8 billion.In addition, representatives of New Zealand and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement aimed at increasing trade and investment flows. According to forecasts, the deal will allow to reach a trading volume of 5.0 billion dollars by 2032, providing an annual average of 1.5 billion dollars. At the same time, in the first nine months of last year, the non-oil trade turnover between the two countries amounted to 642.0 million dollars, which is 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USDX: dollar loses ground ahead of inflation reportThe US dollar index (USDX) shows mixed sentiment, being near the 109.00 mark and testing it for a breakdown down. Yesterday, the index showed a moderate decline, continuing to adjust from the highs reached earlier in the week. The main driver of the "bearish" dynamics was weak statistics from the United States, which increased doubts about today's inflation data and lowered expectations of new changes in the Fed's monetary policy in 2025. In particular, the producer price index for the month fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, although it was predicted to remain at the same level, and year-on-year the indicator increased from 3.0% to 3.3%, but was lower than the expected 3.5%. At the same time, the base value decreased to 0.0% from the previous 0.2%, maintaining the annual dynamics at 3.5%.Forecasts for consumer inflation suggest that the monthly rate will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base value is likely to remain between 0.3% and 3.3%. Such data may signal a slowdown in the pace of the Fed's dovish policy. Central forecasts with a 97.3% probability assume that the interest rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, especially given Donald Trump's policy of reforming import duties, reducing the tax burden and tightening immigration rules, which may increase inflationary pressures.In addition, the monthly economic review of the US Federal Reserve "Beige Book" will be released today at 21:00 (GMT+2). The document covers 12 federal districts, providing up-to-date information on the state of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other sectors of the economy.Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.97, 110.40, 111.00.Support levels: 109.00, 108.50, 108.00, 107.50.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move within the framework of the local uptrend, remaining above $ 79.0 per barrel during the Asian session. The market is gradually recovering, but participants remain concerned about the possible consequences of new US sanctions that could affect Russian oil supplies to China and India, as well as the overall supply level on the global energy market.The quotes support the latest forecasts of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), according to which global oil production could reach 104.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 105.89 million barrels in 2026. At the same time, global demand is expected to decrease to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and to 105.15 million in 2026, which will create an oversupply of 260 thousand barrels and 740 thousand barrels, respectively. This will be in contrast to the deficit of 170,000 barrels recorded in 2024. According to experts, the main increase in production is expected in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.Support levels: 78.30, 74.80.Resistance levels: 80.70, ...
Upcoming eventsThis week promises to be full of macroeconomic publications, where the inflation indicators of key economies will take the central place.:- Wednesday: publication of the US consumer price index for December, accompanied by inflation statistics from Sweden, France, Spain and the UK- Thursday: German inflation data- Friday: publication of the harmonized eurozone consumer price index for December and a block of Chinese statistics (GDP, real estate market, retail sales)The key events of the past week and their impact on the marketsChinese foreign trade: unexpected growthChina's December foreign trade statistics exceeded analysts' expectations:- Exports: 10.7% YoY growth (November: +6.7%)- Imports: 1.0% YoY increase (November: -3.9%)It is noteworthy that the export growth may be partly due to the acceleration of purchases ahead of the expected tariff increase.US labor market: unexpectedly strong dataFriday's US employment report significantly exceeded forecasts:- 256 thousand new jobs were created (forecast: +160 thousand)- Unemployment decreased to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%- Wage growth slowed to 0.3% (previously: 0.4%)The data indicate a suspension of the cooling of the labor market, which reduces the likelihood of an early easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The market's reaction was reflected in the strengthening of the dollar and rising interest rates in both the United States and Europe.Inflationary dynamics in ScandinaviaNorway: core inflation dropped to 2.7% (forecast: 2.8%), confirming the disinflationary trend and increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in March.Denmark: inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.6%, mainly due to the underlying effect in the energy sector.Market dynamicsStock marketsGlobal indexes ended Friday with a decline amid rising bond yields:- Dow Jones: -1,6%- S&P 500: -1,5%- Nasdaq: -1,6%- Russell 2000: -2,2%Debt marketStrong data on the US labor market triggered an increase in yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by 10 bps to 4.76%, exceeding the September lows by 110 bps.Forex market- USD: strengthening amid rising rates- JPY: growth leader despite higher yields- GBP: pressure remains, the EUR/GBP pair is testing the level of 0.84- NOK and SEK: volatile trades with neutral ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
EUR/TRY: euro is under pressure after weak Eurozone GDP dataOn October 23, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.9302, which is 0.17% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to continued pressure on the euro due to weak macroeconomic data for the eurozone, as well as improvements in the Turkish economy.In Turkey, the Central Bank (CBRT) continues to adhere to strict monetary policy, which supports the lira exchange rate. In October, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to contain inflation, which reached 61.5% in September in annual terms. The bank also announced its intention to maintain high rates to stabilize the economic situation, which led to some strengthening of the lira. However, the domestic market continues to be affected by concerns about political stability and international pressure on economic policy.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP data for the third quarter showed weak growth of 0.2%, which is below analysts' expectations. Inflation slowed to 4.3% in September, but core inflation remains at 4.5%, well above the ECB's target level. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a strict policy and signals readiness for further tightening if necessary. Against this background, pressure on the euro remains, as high interest rates continue to limit economic growth in key eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 37.2000, 37.5000.Support levels: 36.7500, 36.5000.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a decrease in the PMIOn October 23, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2974, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decline in the pound against the dollar is due to volatility against the background of market expectations and upcoming economic data releases in the UK and the USA.In the UK, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming publication of data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which, according to forecasts, may decrease to 48.7 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector. This is also confirmed by GDP data, which showed growth of only 0.3% in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations. Inflation remains a key factor, and the latest publication showed its slowdown to 5.9% in annual terms, which somewhat eased the pressure on the Bank of England. However, the continued rise in energy and food prices poses risks for further rate hikes in the UK, despite the slowdown in economic growth.In the US, the situation remains stable against the background of strong data on the labor market and inflation. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) in September showed an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, which coincided with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%. Against this background, the Fed continues to adhere to the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates, which supports the dollar exchange rate. However, market participants expect new signals from the Fed representatives in the near future, which may have an impact on the further dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.AUD/USD: slowing inflation in Australia strengthens RBA's cautionOn October 23, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6677, which is 0.15% less than in the previous trading session. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is due to the deterioration of Australia's economic indicators and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) actions.The economic situation in Australia remains tense, despite the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank. Recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 5.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.6%, but still exceeds the RBA's target of 2-3%. In response to high inflation and weak economic growth data, the RBA left the interest rate at 4.35%, adhering to a cautious approach to further raising it. At the same time, the labor market is showing a weakening, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 3.7%.Economists' forecasts and comments from RBA representatives confirm the bank's cautious position aimed at maintaining stability amid global economic turmoil and falling commodity prices. The focus is on the upcoming RBA meeting and the publication of the quarterly inflation report, which may affect further rate decisions.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6730.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6620.USDX: US Dollar Index is stable at 103.47 amid expectations of US PMI dataAs of October 23, the USDX (DXY) index is trading at 103.47, almost unchanged from the previous trading session. This indicates a general stabilization of the dollar, which is associated with expectations of important publications in the United States and the stability of economic data.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. The latest data show that inflation remains stable at 3.7% year-on-year, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. However, market participants continue to monitor the Fed's actions, as the next meeting will be decisive for further decisions on interest rates. In a stable labor market, where the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%, the Fed retains the possibility of tightening monetary policy if necessary. Today, attention is focused on the upcoming data on business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may affect the dollar exchange rate if the actual values deviate significantly from expectations.Economists expect that the growth of the American economy will continue to remain strong, which supports the current position of the dollar in international markets. However, according to forecasts, in November and December, the USDX index may adjust to levels around 103.1 and 101.7, respectively, which indicates possible volatility depending on the publication of data and the actions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30.Support levels: 103.00, ...
The annual compensation of CEOs in the United States is breaking records, despite a shortage of workers and inflation. According to MyLogIQ (a provider of analytical products of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), the median salary of executives from the S&P 500 companies reached $14.2 million last year. The salary growth of the majority of company executives was at least 11%.Half of the companies also said that the salary of ordinary employees increased by 3.1% last year, and a third of the companies reported that employee compensation, on the contrary, decreased between 2020 and ...
The past year ended very successfully for the American market: the S&P 500 rose by 26.9%, although initially a more modest increase was expected. So, our optimistic (!) scenario included an increase in the broad market index to only 10%. However, the US stock markets got off to a good start and remained on top with the support of the adoption of infrastructure reform. The economic recovery also turned out to be more active than we expected, and this helped companies to increase revenue and profit more intensively. At the same time, the development of all these trends contributed to the acceleration of inflation, which went far beyond the expectations of the Fed, the market and our forecasts. It was inflation that became the most discussed topic last year and will absolutely remain at the top of the agenda in the first half of 2022.To bring inflation under control, the Fed thought about reducing the balance sheet only at the beginning of this year: even in December 2021, there was no talk about it. The reduction of the balance sheet, combined with a sharper than originally planned increase in rates, can act as a reliable way to curb inflation expectations. These expectations are formed mainly on stock exchanges, which excludes their negative impact on the economy in general and on the labor market in particular. A steady positive trend in the labor market is indicated by data for October, when the number of open vacancies reached a record 11.03 million, 1.5 times exceeding the number of applicants. This ratio was last observed 50 years ago. Together with an increase in logistics efficiency, the restoration of production capacities and the gradual opening of the economy, this will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation. Of course, we have repeatedly talked about the upcoming opening of the economy after the pandemic during the second half of 2021, but this event is delayed due to the appearance of new COVID-19 strains. And yet, the longer the pandemic continues, the closer its end is.After a negative start to the year for most securities in the technology sector and a general correction, investors should consider closing hedging positions that I advised opening at the end of last year. Now is the time to buy a wide range of stocks with a focus on "value" and "quality" companies. The intensive growth of the economy serves as the basis for optimistic expectations regarding revenue and profit. That is why the upcoming reporting season is the strongest driver of the growth of quotations of representatives of the real sector of the economy. Of course, there is also a trend to reduce the cash flows of companies, since there is no effect of a low base and economic growth begins to slow down. However, it is predicted that the S&P 500 companies will increase sales by almost 15%, and their earnings per share will increase by 21.5%. Among the leaders will be the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as the segment of secondary necessities. The momentum for an upward movement in their quotes will be provided by strong results for the fourth quarter and optimistic forecasts for January-March. Separately, I would like to note the financial sector, which will not be able to demonstrate a record increase in revenue and profit, but industry forecasts for 2022 may become one of the most optimistic, taking into account the plans of the Federal Reserve to actively raise the key ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
The German Statistical Office published the final data on the dynamics of consumer prices in October in accordance with European reporting standards. They indicate an acceleration of inflation to 4.6%. The indicator is calculated in relation to the prices that were fixed a year earlier. In monthly terms, consumer prices showed an increase of 0.5%. For comparison: in September, inflation in annual and monthly terms was 4.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The calculation of indicators according to German standards showed an increase in the inflation rate in Germany to a maximum for the period since 1993. It amounted to 4.5% in annual terms. Compared to September, prices rose by 0.5%. Both indicators correspond to the forecasts of the surveyed analysts. By the end of September, inflation was 4.1% compared to the same month last year. In monthly terms, it showed zero dynamics. The largest contribution to the growth of October inflation was made by energy carriers. They have risen in price by 18.6%. The cost of food increased by 4.4%. Prices for services increased by ...