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US market: overview and forecast for June 1. Macro data increases instability
S&P 500, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Apple, stock, Meta Platforms, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 1. Macro data increases instability The market the day beforeThe session on June 30, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 lost 0.88%, closing at 3,785 points. Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell by 1.33% and 0.82%, respectively. Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in negative territory. Real estate companies (+0.33%) and utilities (+1.10%), as well as representatives of industry (+0.28%) looked better than the market.Company newsMeta Platforms (META: -1.6%) reported a likely decrease in the growth rate of financial indicators in the second half of the year due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and data privacy issues.Apple Inc (AAPL: -1.8%) has raised the cost of the iPhone in Japan by almost 20%, thereby trying to offset the effect of changes in the exchange rate and rising inflation in the country.We expectThe growth of consumer prices in the eurozone in June, according to Eurostat, accelerated from 8.1% to 8.6% with a consensus of 8.4%. This dynamic is mainly due to record levels of energy prices, although food and services are also noticeably more expensive. Thus, the cost of fuel rose by 41.9%, and the cost of food increased by 11.1%. Inflation excluding the prices of these two categories of goods accelerated from 4.4% in May to 4.6%, which is still more than twice the ECB's target of 2%. However, the indicator excluding alcohol and tobacco dropped by 3.7% from 3.8%. The European regulator continues to keep the key rate at a minimum, although other central banks launched monetary policy tightening programs a few months ago. The ECB plans to start a rate hike cycle in July (according to preliminary data, by 25 bps). At the same time, statistics for June, indicating a continued acceleration of inflation, serves as a reason to raise the rate by 50 bps in September.In Germany, an increase in the number of unemployed was recorded by 133 thousand, to 2.4 million, although analysts expected a decrease in this indicator by 5 thousand. In turn, in the United States, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended June 25 decreased by 2 thousand, to 231 thousand, with a consensus of 234 thousand. In our opinion, employment growth in the States has almost stopped, so in the coming weeks statistics will reflect the deterioration in this segment. However, unemployment remains low.The yield of two- and ten-year treasuries decreased by 14 and 12 bps - to 2.93% and 2.97%, respectively.Trading on July 1 at most sites in Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 0.41%, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.73%, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained unchanged.Brent crude futures are quoted at $108 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,794 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3750-3800 points.MacrostatisticsThere are no plans to publish important statistics today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureSince the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has adjusted down by 26%, including 19% for the second quarter. This was one of the worst results in the history of this statistics. However, in the coming weeks, the market may begin to play rebalancing in stocks by portfolio managers. The nearest support for the broad market index is in the range of 3600-3660 ...
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US market: overview and forecast for June 30. News of the day - release of the PCE index
S&P 500, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Tesla Motors, stock, FedEx, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 30. News of the day - release of the PCE index The market the day beforeTrading on June 29, the main benchmarks of the US stock market ended in different directions. The S&P 500 dropped 0.07%, closing at 3,819 points, the Nasdaq lost 0.03%, the Dow Jones added 0.27%. Issuers from the healthcare sectors (+0.87%) and discretionary consumer goods (+0.49%) showed positive dynamics. Energy companies (-3.43%) and representatives of the real estate industry (-0.76%) looked worse than the market.Company newsTesla Inc. (TSLA: -1.79%) is closing one of its offices in California and laying off 200 employees as part of a cost-cutting strategy, the Wall Street Journal reports.FedEx Corp. (FDX: -2.62%) presented a revised forecast ahead of the investor meeting. The new targets for fiscal year 2025 imply an increase in total annual revenue and adjusted EPS by 4-6% and 14-19%, respectively.Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY: -23.58%) reported an adjusted quarterly loss of more than the consensus forecast and did not meet revenue expectations. Amid the weak results of the first quarter, the company announced the resignation of its CEO, which could be a positive signal for investors.We expectOn June 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the ECB forum, acknowledging during the discussion that efforts to combat high inflation and the tightening of the PREP are accompanied by risks of a serious slowdown in economic activity and, although a "soft landing" of the economy is still possible, this process will be difficult, and its result is not guaranteed by the regulator. In an interview with CNBC, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she considers it necessary to further increase the discount rate by 75 bps in July and expects to reach 3-3.5% by the end of the year. Today's release of the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), reflecting the dynamics of inflation, will be a key moment for market participants, as it will allow them to predict the next steps of the Federal Reserve.According to the final estimate, in the first quarter, US GDP decreased by 1.6% QoQ, whereas previously a possible drop was estimated at 1.5%. At the moment, the consensus forecast of economists assumes the growth of the US economy in the current quarter by 2.5% QoQ, while the Atlanta Fed expects zero dynamics of the country's GDP. At the same time, according to preliminary estimates, the US trade deficit is shrinking, and the volume of inventories in the country increased by 2% in May, which acts as a factor in supporting economic growth. In addition, the presence of excess stocks at the largest retailers pushes them to the decision to lower prices to free up filled warehouses and attract buyers. It is expected that this will also contribute to a slowdown in commodity inflation. In turn, price stabilization will serve as a signal for the Fed to raise interest rates less aggressively.The stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region completed the trading session on June 30 in different directions. Japan's Nikkei dropped by 1.54%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.62%, China's CSI 300 rose by 1.44%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 1.94% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $116 per barrel. The price of gold is $1813 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3770-3840 points.MacrostatisticsThe PCE index for May will be published today. The overall indicator is expected to increase to 6.5% YoY after 6.3% at the end of April. The growth of the underlying PCE (excluding volatile components), on the contrary, may slow down to 4.8% YoY after 4.9% a month earlier.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped by one point to 28.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 ended the last trading session in the red. The RSI is held near neutral values. MACD indicates the bulls' attempts to hold positions, but the probability of a trend reversal in favor of buyers in the near future is still weak. The next resistance level is located around the psychologically significant mark of 3990-4000 points, the closest support is still the range of 3600-3660 ...
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US market: overview and forecast for June 29. Waiting for Jerome Powell's speech
Nikkei 225, index, S&P 500, index, EURO STOXX 50, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Qualcomm, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 29. Waiting for Jerome Powell\'s speech The market the day beforeThe session on June 28, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 fell by 2.01% to 3,821 points, the Dow Jones lost 1.56%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 2.98%. 10 of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index showed a decline. The exception was the energy sector, which added 2.70%. Among the leaders of the fall were manufacturers of durable goods (-4.03%) and technology companies (-3.01%).Company newsAccording to analysts, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM: +3.48%) may remain the main supplier of modem chips for Apple Inc (AAPL: -2.98%) in 2023.Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-A: -1.32%) announced the purchase of 794.4 thousand more ordinary shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: +4.77%).In the first quarter, the number of hotel bookings on the platforms Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM: +10.79%) outside China exceeded the pre-pandemic level.We expectBeijing and Shanghai reported no new cases of COVID-19 for the first time since February, which gives hope for the full opening of China's economy. In addition, some of the largest US banks have increased their plans for dividends and share buybacks after the Fed stress test. However, it seems that these positive factors are offset by the consumer confidence index released yesterday for the current month: the indicator fell to 98.7 against the expected value of 101 points. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and significantly less than 127.3 points in June a year ago. Additional pressure on the stock market was exerted by the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, that the Fed may raise the rate at the July meeting by 75 bps. Also today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech. Perhaps the head of the American financial regulator will try to calm the market somewhat, which will allow investors to revise expectations about the prospects for US GDP in the direction of improvement: from the inevitability of a recession to a temporary slowdown in economic growth.The yield of ten- and two-year treasuries on the eve increased by 1 bps compared to the values on June 20, to 3.21% and 3.14%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year bonds reached 3.31%.Trading on June 29 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 0.91%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost by 1.88%, and China's CSI 300 dropped by 1.54%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 0.87% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $117.98 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1817.5 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3810-3860 points.MacrostatisticsData on the dynamics of US GDP for the first quarter will be published today. It is expected to fall by 1.5% QoQ in accordance with the indicators observed a month earlier.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index from Freedom Finance dropped one point to 29.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues its correction within the downtrend. The RSI has approached the neutral level. The MACD signals the possible development of an upward ...
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US market: overview and forecast for June 28. The focus is on the forecast of oil prices
S&P 500, index, EURO STOXX 50, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Robinhood Markets, stock, CSI 300, index, US market: overview and forecast for June 28. The focus is on the forecast of oil prices The market the day beforeThe session on June 27, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to close at 3,900 points. Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell by 0.72% and 0.2%, respectively. Shares of energy companies were among the leaders of growth (+2.78%). The securities of producers of cyclical consumer goods (-1.09%) and telecoms (-1.05%) looked worse than the market.Company newsIt became known that Sam Bankman-Fried from FTX is considering a deal with Robinhood (HOOD: +14%).Bloomberg reported that Investindustrial is in exclusive talks to acquire Treehouse Foods (THS: +2.3%). The cost of the division may be approximately $1.3 billion.Digital World Acquisition (DWAC: -9.6%) announced the receipt of additional subpoenas as part of the investigation announced earlier by the federal Grand Jury and warned that this fact (along with investigations by the US Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission) could significantly delay/hinder the merger with Trump Media & Technology Group or even prevent this transaction.We expectUS President John Biden demanded that American shale oil producers invest more in increasing production due to the shortage of raw materials and fuel in the country. However, the relevant companies have been under pressure from shareholders for many years, forcing them to focus on increasing profits rather than increasing production. As a result, the reluctance of mining corporations to invest in expanding production volumes has led to increased tensions between the industry and the White House, which is forced to restrain high fuel prices by all possible means, which have accelerated inflation to 10-year highs. As a result, companies carry out repeated fracturing in old wells, since it is cheaper than developing new ones.Recently, BofA analysts presented three scenarios for the development of events in the oil industry. Under the baseline scenario, Brent quotes in 2022 and 2023 will average about $102 per barrel. However, according to experts, a recession can trigger a reduction in fuel consumption. In this case, oil prices may adjust by 30% from current levels. Another scenario suggests that if European sanctions lead to a reduction in oil production in Russia to less than 9 million barrels per day, Brent quotations may jump to $150 per barrel of the mixture.Trading on June 28 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the green zone. China's CSI 300 gained 1.04%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.85%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 increased 0.66%. EuroStoxx50 has been up 0.76% since the start of trading.Brent crude futures are quoted at $112 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,828 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3850-3930 points.MacrostatisticsToday, data on wholesale inventories in May will be published (forecast: +1.9%, previous value.: +2.2%), and the consumer confidence index in June from the Conference Board will also be released (forecast: 101 points, previous value.: 106.4).Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 30.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues to correct within the downtrend. The MACD gives uncertain signals for a reversal, while the RSI has approached the neutral level. The benchmark may meet resistance near the psychologically significant level of 4000 points. Support is still located near the lower border of the ...
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Articles about financial markets

Remuneration of American CEOs has reached a record
S&P 500, index, Remuneration of American CEOs has reached a record The annual compensation of CEOs in the United States is breaking records, despite a shortage of workers and inflation. According to MyLogIQ (a provider of analytical products of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), the median salary of executives from the S&P 500 companies reached $14.2 million last year. The salary growth of the majority of company executives was at least 11%.Half of the companies also said that the salary of ordinary employees increased by 3.1% last year, and a third of the companies reported that employee compensation, on the contrary, decreased between 2020 and ...
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Updating drivers - looking for landmarks
S&P 500, index, Updating drivers - looking for landmarks The past year ended very successfully for the American market: the S&P 500 rose by 26.9%, although initially a more modest increase was expected. So, our optimistic (!) scenario included an increase in the broad market index to only 10%. However, the US stock markets got off to a good start and remained on top with the support of the adoption of infrastructure reform. The economic recovery also turned out to be more active than we expected, and this helped companies to increase revenue and profit more intensively. At the same time, the development of all these trends contributed to the acceleration of inflation, which went far beyond the expectations of the Fed, the market and our forecasts. It was inflation that became the most discussed topic last year and will absolutely remain at the top of the agenda in the first half of 2022.To bring inflation under control, the Fed thought about reducing the balance sheet only at the beginning of this year: even in December 2021, there was no talk about it. The reduction of the balance sheet, combined with a sharper than originally planned increase in rates, can act as a reliable way to curb inflation expectations. These expectations are formed mainly on stock exchanges, which excludes their negative impact on the economy in general and on the labor market in particular. A steady positive trend in the labor market is indicated by data for October, when the number of open vacancies reached a record 11.03 million, 1.5 times exceeding the number of applicants. This ratio was last observed 50 years ago. Together with an increase in logistics efficiency, the restoration of production capacities and the gradual opening of the economy, this will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation. Of course, we have repeatedly talked about the upcoming opening of the economy after the pandemic during the second half of 2021, but this event is delayed due to the appearance of new COVID-19 strains. And yet, the longer the pandemic continues, the closer its end is.After a negative start to the year for most securities in the technology sector and a general correction, investors should consider closing hedging positions that I advised opening at the end of last year. Now is the time to buy a wide range of stocks with a focus on "value" and "quality" companies. The intensive growth of the economy serves as the basis for optimistic expectations regarding revenue and profit. That is why the upcoming reporting season is the strongest driver of the growth of quotations of representatives of the real sector of the economy. Of course, there is also a trend to reduce the cash flows of companies, since there is no effect of a low base and economic growth begins to slow down. However, it is predicted that the S&P 500 companies will increase sales by almost 15%, and their earnings per share will increase by 21.5%. Among the leaders will be the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as the segment of secondary necessities. The momentum for an upward movement in their quotes will be provided by strong results for the fourth quarter and optimistic forecasts for January-March. Separately, I would like to note the financial sector, which will not be able to demonstrate a record increase in revenue and profit, but industry forecasts for 2022 may become one of the most optimistic, taking into account the plans of the Federal Reserve to actively raise the key ...
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Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Inflation is rising in Germany
DAX, index, Inflation is rising in Germany The German Statistical Office published the final data on the dynamics of consumer prices in October in accordance with European reporting standards. They indicate an acceleration of inflation to 4.6%. The indicator is calculated in relation to the prices that were fixed a year earlier. In monthly terms, consumer prices showed an increase of 0.5%. For comparison: in September, inflation in annual and monthly terms was 4.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The calculation of indicators according to German standards showed an increase in the inflation rate in Germany to a maximum for the period since 1993. It amounted to 4.5% in annual terms. Compared to September, prices rose by 0.5%. Both indicators correspond to the forecasts of the surveyed analysts. By the end of September, inflation was 4.1% compared to the same month last year. In monthly terms, it showed zero dynamics. The largest contribution to the growth of October inflation was made by energy carriers. They have risen in price by 18.6%. The cost of food increased by 4.4%. Prices for services increased by ...
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