Давление со стороны продавцов на доллар США сохранялось в понедельник утром, так как индекс USD упал до 102 пунктов, самого низкого уровня с начала января.Инвесторы будут внимательно следить за заявлениями представителей центрального банка, и в экономическом календаре не будет никаких важных данных. Склонность рынка к риску и падение доходности казначейских облигаций США в совокупности привели к снижению курса доллара-убежища в пятницу.Доллар США потерял позиции и не может восстановить свою силу, несмотря на более значительный, чем ожидалось, рост потребительских настроений в США, о котором сообщалось во второй половине дня.Пятую неделю подряд индекс доллара США завершил неделю ниже, чем начал, упав более чем на 0,5 процента в пятницу. Доллару США было непросто сохранить свои позиции в преддверии выходных из-за повышения склонности к риску и падения доходности казначейских облигаций США.Доходность 10-летних облигаций США остается отрицательной, ниже 3 процентов, в утренние часы в Европе в понедельник, а фьючерсы на американский фондовый индекс практически не изменились в течение дня.Желтый металл впервые преодолел отметку в 2500 долларов за унцию, и иена внезапно взлетела выше, оказав давление на Nikkei.На возможность смягчения в сентябре намекали члены Федеральной резервной системы Мэри Дейли и Остан Гулсби во время их отсутствия на выходных, и ожидается, что "голубиный" прогноз будет подкреплен протоколами заключительного заседания по вопросам политики на этой неделе. Инвесторы ожидают, что когда председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл выступит в пятницу в Джексон-Хоул, он поднимет вопрос о необходимости сокращения.По словам экономиста Barclays Кристиана Келлера, опасения по поводу инфляции в США, которые доминировали в политических дебатах с тех пор, как цены начали стремительно расти во время пандемии, теперь в значительной степени исчезли, хотя, возможно, еще слишком рано объявлять о победе, и центральные банки, несомненно, поступят мудро, избегая этого в своей официальной риторике. Фьючерсы указывают на 25%-ную вероятность повышения на 50 базисных пунктов со значительным изменением в зависимости от результатов предстоящего отчета о заработной плате.Они полностью рассчитаны на повышение на четверть базисного пункта.Значительный пересмотр в сторону понижения - от 600 000 до миллиона позиций - можно увидеть в ежегодных обновлениях списка вакансий, которые запланированы на эту среду.Однако это, вероятно, преувеличило бы слабость рынка труда. В настоящее время ожидается, что экономика США выйдет из кризиса более мягкой. Фьючерсы на индекс Nasdaq выросли на 0,3%, а фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 - на 0,2% из-за улучшения экономической ситуации на прошлой неделе. Позднее сегодня запланировано выступление Кристофера Уоллера, представителя Федеральной резервной системы, ответственного за политику. Поскольку Уоллер является одним из наиболее агрессивных регуляторов ФРС, отказ от ставок на снижение процентной ставки может укрепить доллар ...
Самое большое падение с 1987 годаАзиатские фондовые индексы не склонны к риску после сокращения числа рабочих мест в США в пятницу. Опасения по поводу рецессии усилились из-за смягчения денежно-кредитной политики ФРС.Индекс NIKKEI 225 пережил самое сильное падение за один день, потеряв за один день более 4400 пунктов. Последнее заседание ФРС прояснило позицию центрального банка, и снижение ставки в сентябре представляется весьма вероятным.Но, вопреки тому, что происходило в недавнем прошлом, когда рынок сплотился из-за мягкой политики ФРС, рынок осознал, что существует больший риск. Последние данные по ВВП свидетельствуют о том, что экономика ускоряется медленнее, и данные по занятости подтверждают это.Опасения по поводу рецессии в США охватывают рынок, и пятничная распродажа перекинулась на открытие торгов на этой неделе. Японские фондовые индексы также борются с ястребиным настроем Банка Японии, повышение на 0,25% ожидалось многими, но не полностью соответствовало прогнозам.В последнем квартале 2024 года ожидается дальнейшее повышение ставок. Большую роль в этом играют недавние опасения многих правительственных чиновников по поводу нежелательных последствий ослабления иены. Последнее повышение произошло после различных призывов защитить иену.Слабая иена негативно сказывается на частном потреблении и оказывает давление на цены на продовольствие и энергоносители. Мандат Банка Японии заключается в сдерживании инфляции, но, как мы видели, слабая иена также вызывает беспокойство у центрального банка.Технический взглядГрафик NIKKEI 225 показывает, что рынок находится в полностью медвежьем тренде. Все последние 3 свечи имеют большой дневной диапазон и длинные тела свечей, что свидетельствует о силе недавней распродажи.Сегодняшняя свеча нашла поддержку на предыдущем минимуме 30,469. Что соответствует падению в октябре 2023 года. Мы видим, что RSI сегодня достиг уровня сильной перепроданности 20,94.Индекс RSI ниже 30 также указывает на то, что рынок демонстрирует сильный импульс. Однако, если индекс RSI закроется выше 30, мы можем ожидать некоторой коррекции на рынке, учитывая уровни перепроданности. Рынок найдет следующее сопротивление на отметке 33 837.Если этот уровень будет пробит, рынок найдет следующую область сопротивления на отметке 35 ...
Trading idea for the Dollar Index (DXY) dated July 26, 2024During the Asian session on Friday, the dollar index (DXY) continues to consolidate around 104.00. The volatility of currency pairs is low, as traders expect the publication of important macroeconomic data from the United States, which may affect the prospects for monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.Yesterday's report on US GDP for the second quarter showed growth of 2.8%, which is significantly higher than the forecast of 2%. This raises concerns that rapid economic growth is capable of accelerating inflation, which in turn may force the Federal Reserve System (Fed) to postpone monetary policy easing. Also, weekly labor market data showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 235 thousand, which was lower than the forecast of 237 thousand and the previous value of 245 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving assistance decreased from 1.860 million to 1.851 million. Despite this, market participants are still confident that the Fed will cut the rate at the September meeting. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a scenario is almost 100%. William Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, believes that rates should be lowered as early as next week at the July 30-31 meeting, otherwise it may be too late in September.Today, traders' attention is focused on data on the Personal consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) in the United States, which is the Fed's preferred indicator for assessing inflation. The PCE index for June is expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%. If the forecasts are confirmed, this will indicate a continuation of the downward trend in inflation, which will increase the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the next meetings. In this regard, DXY has the potential to decrease.Recommendations:Sale of DXY at the breakdown of the 103.80 levelTarget (TP): 103.00Stop Loss (SL): ...
At Friday's auction, the dollar index (DXY) rose again to the maximum levels of early May and is trading around 105.70, showing significant growth at the end of the week, whereas on Monday it was trading around the key level of 105.00.The growth of the dollar was facilitated by the macroeconomic reporting of the United States. The revised GDP figure for the first quarter came out at 1.4%, which is higher than the expected 1.3%. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 233 thousand, which is lower than both the forecast value of 236 thousand and the previous figure of 239 thousand. The volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.1% in May, with a forecast decrease of 0.1%.Today, markets are waiting for the release of the key inflation indicator for the Fed — the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The base index is expected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.6% on an annual basis, and from 0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis. A decrease in price pressure may increase expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, which markets predict for September. If inflation remains high, it will support the dollar and boost U.S. government bond yields. In addition, on Friday, investors will be interested in the May data on personal income/expenses of consumers. The growth of consumer activity and income can have a positive impact on the dollar exchange rate.Fed officials are in no hurry to change current interest rates, expecting inflation to fall to the target level of 2%. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's board of governors, said that if disinflation stalled, the Fed would have to re-tighten policy. With this in mind, DXY has the potential for further growth and, with the support of the PCE index, it can break above the 106.00 mark.Based on fundamental factors, indications of technical indicators and graphical patterns, we propose to place a pending order on DXY:Buy Stop 105.80Take Profit 107.00Stop Loss ...
The annual compensation of CEOs in the United States is breaking records, despite a shortage of workers and inflation. According to MyLogIQ (a provider of analytical products of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), the median salary of executives from the S&P 500 companies reached $14.2 million last year. The salary growth of the majority of company executives was at least 11%.Half of the companies also said that the salary of ordinary employees increased by 3.1% last year, and a third of the companies reported that employee compensation, on the contrary, decreased between 2020 and ...
The past year ended very successfully for the American market: the S&P 500 rose by 26.9%, although initially a more modest increase was expected. So, our optimistic (!) scenario included an increase in the broad market index to only 10%. However, the US stock markets got off to a good start and remained on top with the support of the adoption of infrastructure reform. The economic recovery also turned out to be more active than we expected, and this helped companies to increase revenue and profit more intensively. At the same time, the development of all these trends contributed to the acceleration of inflation, which went far beyond the expectations of the Fed, the market and our forecasts. It was inflation that became the most discussed topic last year and will absolutely remain at the top of the agenda in the first half of 2022.To bring inflation under control, the Fed thought about reducing the balance sheet only at the beginning of this year: even in December 2021, there was no talk about it. The reduction of the balance sheet, combined with a sharper than originally planned increase in rates, can act as a reliable way to curb inflation expectations. These expectations are formed mainly on stock exchanges, which excludes their negative impact on the economy in general and on the labor market in particular. A steady positive trend in the labor market is indicated by data for October, when the number of open vacancies reached a record 11.03 million, 1.5 times exceeding the number of applicants. This ratio was last observed 50 years ago. Together with an increase in logistics efficiency, the restoration of production capacities and the gradual opening of the economy, this will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation. Of course, we have repeatedly talked about the upcoming opening of the economy after the pandemic during the second half of 2021, but this event is delayed due to the appearance of new COVID-19 strains. And yet, the longer the pandemic continues, the closer its end is.After a negative start to the year for most securities in the technology sector and a general correction, investors should consider closing hedging positions that I advised opening at the end of last year. Now is the time to buy a wide range of stocks with a focus on "value" and "quality" companies. The intensive growth of the economy serves as the basis for optimistic expectations regarding revenue and profit. That is why the upcoming reporting season is the strongest driver of the growth of quotations of representatives of the real sector of the economy. Of course, there is also a trend to reduce the cash flows of companies, since there is no effect of a low base and economic growth begins to slow down. However, it is predicted that the S&P 500 companies will increase sales by almost 15%, and their earnings per share will increase by 21.5%. Among the leaders will be the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as the segment of secondary necessities. The momentum for an upward movement in their quotes will be provided by strong results for the fourth quarter and optimistic forecasts for January-March. Separately, I would like to note the financial sector, which will not be able to demonstrate a record increase in revenue and profit, but industry forecasts for 2022 may become one of the most optimistic, taking into account the plans of the Federal Reserve to actively raise the key ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
The German Statistical Office published the final data on the dynamics of consumer prices in October in accordance with European reporting standards. They indicate an acceleration of inflation to 4.6%. The indicator is calculated in relation to the prices that were fixed a year earlier. In monthly terms, consumer prices showed an increase of 0.5%. For comparison: in September, inflation in annual and monthly terms was 4.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The calculation of indicators according to German standards showed an increase in the inflation rate in Germany to a maximum for the period since 1993. It amounted to 4.5% in annual terms. Compared to September, prices rose by 0.5%. Both indicators correspond to the forecasts of the surveyed analysts. By the end of September, inflation was 4.1% compared to the same month last year. In monthly terms, it showed zero dynamics. The largest contribution to the growth of October inflation was made by energy carriers. They have risen in price by 18.6%. The cost of food increased by 4.4%. Prices for services increased by ...