Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also ...
USD/CHF analysis on April 8, 2025The USD/CHF pair stabilized at 0.8574, reflecting the desire of investors to redistribute capital into less volatile assets. The Swiss franc is traditionally in demand as a defensive asset, but the current situation requires a deeper analysis of fundamental factors.Swiss inflation remained at 0.3%, which corresponds to the lower limit of the target range of the National Bank. However, this stable position may be disrupted by the new 31% US tariffs on imports. According to a study by Capital Economics, these measures may weaken economic activity and inflationary pressures, creating the prerequisites for lowering the interest rate to zero as early as June. At the same time, it is worth noting that the US share of Swiss exports is a significant 19%, which makes the country vulnerable to trade shocks.The dollar index is showing moderate strengthening and has reached 102.50. Paradoxically, the initiatives of the Trump administration are putting pressure not only on trading partners, but also on the US domestic economy. A recent statement by Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee confirmed the Fed's cautious approach - the regulator does not plan to rush to change rates, preferring to wait for new data. As a result, market expectations for policy easing dropped from 60% to 33% in May.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows that the pair continues to move within the descending channel of 0.8500-0.8760. The indicators give mixed signals: the Alligator remains bearish, while the Awesome Oscillator indicator shows signs of correction in the negative zone.Trading recommendationsUnder the current conditions, two scenarios are possible.Sales become relevant when the pair is fixed below 0.8550 with the prospect of moving towards 0.8400. We will set the protective stop loss at 0.8630.For purchases, it is necessary to overcome the resistance of 0.8630, which will open the way to testing the upper limit of the 0.8760 channel. In this case, we will place the stop loss at ...
The USD/CHF pair is showing a steady downward trend, and after another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, it reached the level of 0.8791. The regulator eased monetary policy for the fifth time in a row, setting the key rate at 0.25%, which corresponds to the interim target. This move forced analysts at Citigroup Inc. to revise forecasts, narrowing the expected trading range to 0.8500-0.9000 against previous expectations of the upper limit at 0.9300.The head of the NBS Martin Schlegel pointed to the continuing uncertainty in the global economy caused by trade restrictions from the United States. These measures create difficulties for long-term forecasting of economic development dynamics. At the same time, the regulator expects a possible acceleration of inflationary processes, which may lead to a pause in the cycle of monetary expansion. NBS continues to monitor the situation, ready to make additional adjustments if necessary to maintain price stability.The US dollar index continues to weaken for the third consecutive session. The USDX index sank to 103.50. Pressure on the US currency increased after the publication of data from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index fell to 52.6 points (the lowest since July 2022), and the overall consumer sentiment index fell to 57.0 points (the lowest level since November 2022).USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is correcting within the descending channel with the boundaries of 0.8850-0.8650. Technical indicators confirm the bearish signal:- The fast moving averages on the Alligator indicator are located below the signal line- The Awesome Oscillator indicator forms ascending bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales- Entry when anchored below 0.8760- Target level: 0.8630- Protective order: 0.8820For purchases- Entry at an upward breakout of 0.8850- Target level: 0.8990- Protective order: ...