GBPUSD: the Bank of England assessed the prospects of overcoming inflationGBPUSD is showing a downtrend at 1.2320, having retreated from the local high of February 2 that was updated earlier. The asset is gradually losing ground because of the strengthening U.S. dollar, which positively assessed the normalization of the situation concerning the prospects of the financial crisis in the United States.The chairman of the U.K. confirmed the priority of the task to fight the record consumer prices for the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the February statistics showed inflation strengthening in the annual dynamics to 10.4% under the conditions of the constantly rising interest rate, which the Office the previous day raised for the eleventh time in a row, to the target value of 4.25%, but Bailey admits that this summer we will see the inflation decrease. The official also noted the growing tension in some parts of the global banking sector, but having sufficient liquidity reserves financial authorities have a sufficient set of tools to maintain stability in the economy.Resistance levels: 1.2350, 1.2400, 1.2450 and 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2283, 1.2236, 1.2176, 1.2140.USDCHF: the pair is trading in sideways dynamicsIn morning trading the currency pair USDCHF shows a contradictory trend, being in the area of 0.9180.Meanwhile Swiss franc found itself under significant pressure on Wednesday's national macroeconomic statistics, according to which economic expectations for March index from the Center for European Economic Research declined to -41.3 points from -12.3 points while estimates of a decline to only -18.9 points. However, the national currency was saved from a complete collapse to a local minimum by quarterly reports of the Swiss National Bank. Thus, the agency announced that short-term inflation expectations are losing perspective for further growth, as the last six months to a year the value was 2.4% of the forecast of 3.1%. In the longer-term outlook, the regulator intends to return inflationary pressures to 1.5%.Resistance levels are 0.9200, 0.9258, 0.9300 and 0.9350.Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9070, 0.9036.Gold analyticsThe price of the precious metal is developing a strong upward momentum, breaking the annual peak of February 2 in the area of 1960.0.Quotes got strong support amid bankruptcy of banking sector institutions in Europe and the United States by Credit Suisse AG and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The official authorities continue to assure market participants of the stable national financial system, but investors perceive such statements with caution, because they do not believe that with high inflation and expensive borrowing the stability is possible, even if using endless emission. Therefore, the metal assets group maintains high demand in the market, due to which the number of contracts in bank metal during March has significantly strengthened and, according to statistics of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), successfully updated the historical peak of 731.397 thousand transactions on March 13, against 155.434 thousand transactions on March 7. The markets are now under the influence of increased investment interest in metals, hence the level of contracts continues to hold high volume of open transactions. Earlier in the day, futures positions stood at 241,374,000 contracts, options positions at 45,371,000 contracts, supporting gold.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2100.0.Support levels: 1933.0, 1856.0.Crude Oil Market ReviewDespite the outflow of investment potential into the metal group of commodities, the price of benchmark Brent crude oil is in correction, holding just above the December 2022 low of 77.00.The agreement between Russia and China on the transfer of all payments for gas and oil to the Chinese currency, which would completely exclude the U.S. dollar from circulation in the execution of contracts, continues to be discussed at various venues. The Government of Saudi Arabia is also studying the possibility of trade relations with the "Celestial Empire" on similar conditions, which already has a prospect of development after the recent deal of China National Offshore Oil Corp. with TotalEnergies SE of France for the supply of 65.0 thousand tons of LNG under settlements in yuan. Therefore, the news backdrop continues to point to the withdrawal of oil from the zone of influence of the U.S. currency.Resistance levels: 79.70, 86.10.Support levels: 75.40, ...
USDCHF: Credit Suisse Group management can be held responsibleUSDCHF trading pair is moving in moderate decline, being under the weak momentum of the "bears" that came earlier. The asset is held around 0.9140 continuing a decline, having updated the local minimum of March 23.The "bears" are gaining advantage in the first half of the week amid the improvement of investors' mood, who appreciated the comments of the US bank First Citizens BancShares Inc, which announced about the redemption of considerable part of credit portfolio of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) liquidated the day before, which can significantly ease the insurance burden in the country, because the Treasury Department had assured the depositors of SVB about the open access to their deposits the day before. The positive news background was also reflected in the European region in the banking sector. So, by the end of March 27, Monday, a large German conglomerate Deutsche Bank became the leader in a "bullish" trend restoring positions lost since the end of the previous week.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9258, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9070, 0.9036, 0.9000.USDCAD: Canada has assessed the recession threatIn morning trading USDCAD is testing the local lows of March 7, updated on March 23, being in the area of 1.3630, continuing to decline.Meanwhile, the former head of the Canadian regulator Stephen Poloz said there are growing risks of a major recession in the national economy. The official was positive about the steps of the Financial Department in fighting the record dynamic of inflation that has already updated a 40-year high of 8.1% as the February statistics showed a decline in consumer prices by 5.2%, but regular tightening of monetary parameters, according to his comments, will not remain without consequences primarily for the real estate market and the investment climate. The official also saw positive dynamics in the employment situation, where an increase in workers due to the immigration flow of adult citizens due to the launch of a child care support program will be recorded, as well as increased funding for the healthcare system in the country with an additional 196.0 billion dollars in the next 10 years, which will be divided in the priority areas - family medicine, surgery equipment, mental health and improved data collection system.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3500, 1.3440.AUDUSD: upward trend developing in the pairThe AUDUSD is testing the 0.6690 level in an attempt to develop upward momentum amid positive macro data in February.Australia's retail sales gained 0.2%, having previously strengthened by 1.8%, thanks to rising spending by industries with a link to food group goods. For example, the value of restorations and cafes rose 0.5% and food retail sales rose 0.2%. Department store manufactured goods adjusted 1.0%, clothing and footwear gained 0.6%, and home goods showed zero movement.The American currency is gradually losing ground near 102.200 USD Index, as there are no announcements of macroeconomic statistics at the beginning of the week, only the Conference Board consumer confidence figure was announced for the evening, which attracts enough attention among investors. Analysts expect the reading to fall to 101.0 from 102.9 last week, which would send a negative signal for the greenback.Resistance levels are at 0.6750 and 0.6890.Support levels: 0.6630 and 0.6500.USDJPY: Traders activity has strengthened the asset around 130.90The Japanese currency continues to move in a downtrend, being at 130.90 on the background of statements made by the management of the Central Bank of Japan.The official again noted the continuation of the "dovish" vector in monetary parameters and keeping the key value in the negative zone of -0.10%, emphasizing that conditions for tightening of monetary parameters have not yet come due to the revision of the necessary time for inflation return to the level of 2.00% to increase it to the last forecast. A week earlier in the release, macroeconomic statistics showed consumer inflation correcting to -1.0% year-over-year from 3.3% and corporate services strengthened to 1.8% from 1.6% on a preliminary forecast of 1.5% due to renewed tourist arrivals and rising labor costs.Resistance levels: 134.70, 138.70.Support levels: 130.90, ...
USD/CHF is moving in different directions on Tuesday, consolidating after the previous decline and trading near the level of 0.9150.Bears" took the initiative at the beginning of the week, taking advantage of the improving situation in the financial system after the statement of First Citizens BancShares Inc. representative about purchasing a large part of the credit portfolio of the troubled SVB. The rhetoric of American bankers had a positive effect on the banking sector in Europe as well. Deutsche Bank shares are recovering fast after an unexpected collapse caused by market rumors.Investors are waiting for Christine Lagarde's speech today (13:15 GMT), expecting to hear news on the regulator's further monetary policy course. The ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points in March and has signaled it will continue to fight inflation while the Fed is likely to take a wait-and-see approach.The Swiss authorities are considering the issue of prosecution of Credit Suisse Group AG top-managers, whose actions provoked the bank bankruptcy.On Wednesday the March index of economic expectations of Switzerland from ZEW will be released. It is expected further decline of the index from (-12.3) to (-18.9) p. There will also be published the Swiss National Bank's report for the first quarter.USD/CHF Technical analysisMajor Forex indicators are showing a downward trend. Bollinger Bands are confidently turned down, MACD has a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator went down to the 20% level, but could not pass through the oversold area and went flat.After the pair has consolidated below the key support at 0.9100, we will open a short position with a target at 0.9000. Stop-loss is set at 0.9150.Breakout above resistance at 0.9200 will signal the return of buyers to the market. Take profit is at 0.9300. Protective stop is set at ...
EURUSD: investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decisionsA slight correction of the US dollar allowed EURUSD to test the level of 1.0769.There is no stimulus for fundamental changes in the dynamics of the euro, which was confirmed by the latest macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the current economic environment in Germany according to the ZEW index for March was -46.5 points, which is lower than the previous 45.1 points. The value of the economic sentiment declined from 28.1 points to 13.0 points. Such figures were an "anchor" for similar indicators of all countries in the euro area, which reached 10.0 points from 29.7 points. Analysts call the crisis in the banking sector the main reason for the correction.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.GBPUSD: correctional impulse developmentGBPUSD is showing a mixed trend being around 1.2230 being under the pressure of the "bullish" impulse which came earlier, when the asset rebounded from the local high of February 2.Investors are waiting for the publication of the statistics on consumer prices for February in the UK. Market expectations envisage decline of the value dynamics to 9.8% from 10.1% in the annual index, and the monthly index may show the growth of 0.6%, having earlier decreased by the similar indicator for January, at that the position of the core inflation indicator may remain at the level of 5.8%. In addition, economists want to assess retail price data; February's forecast is that the value may show an increase for the month to 0.6% from 0.0%, and for the year a slight correction to 13.2% from 13.4%.The kingdom's regulator was positive about Swiss authorities' support for the merger of two large-scale credit reproducers, Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG, the former of which faced the threat of closure amid insufficient liquidity due to massive outflows of funds from its accounts. According to comments from officials in the government, Credit Suisse Group AG's U.K. branch employs about 5,000 full-time workers, and the institution itself holds the largest number of employees in the investment sector in the City of London.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.USDCHF: Saudi National Bank is reviewing its investment in Credit Suisse GroupThe USDCHF trade instrument showed corrective moods in the morning session, completing the negative dynamics of the previous day due to weak activity on the market, where investors are waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary issues.A summit of Swiss National Bank officials on interest rates is due tomorrow, March 23. The preliminary forecast of the analysts is unambiguous - the indicator will remain at the same level of 1.0%, taking into account a rather low value of the national inflation. Experts discuss the merger of banking conglomerates UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, which is estimated at 3.0 billion francs. The takeover is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year, as the process will bypass protocol approval from the institutions' shareholders, but the government has committed 9.0 billion francs to cover possible costs. Meanwhile, the largest investor for Credit Suisse Group AG, Saudi National Bank has lost 80.0% of its value since buying a 9.9% block of securities worth 1.4 billion francs last fall.Resistance levels are 0.9258, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9070.Gold analyticsThe precious metal is correcting at 1940.00 amid significant declines of the last two sessions in a row, which allowed the asset to retreat from the record high of April 2022 and the fundamental resistance threshold of 2000.00.Gold positions were pressured by rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which was only intensified by massive profit taking on long contracts ahead of the Fed officials' meeting on monetary policy. Preliminary estimates of analysts foresee the strengthening of the interest rate by no more than 0.25%, not ruling out that the agency may announce a temporary pause at all, refusing to tighten monetary parameters in the short term. The latter move may be taken wishing to deprive the growing crisis in the financial sector of further momentum, but investors will not accept such a decision. Still about 82% of economists agree that the regulator will increase the price threshold of borrowing by 0.25% and refrain from forecasting a further correction at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00, 2015.30.Support levels: 1930.00, 1914.44, 1900.00, ...