USD/CHF: trading activity is entering a mixed phaseThe quotes of the USD/CHF pair show mixed dynamics, holding near the level of 0.8836 after a significant decline recorded in the previous trading session.The Swiss franc is under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics. In the third quarter, the growth rate of industrial production in the country decreased from 7.0% to 3.5%, which signaled a slowdown in economic activity. Additionally, inflation data had a negative impact: in October, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the indicator decreased to -1.8% from -1.3%, which indicates the continued pressure of deflationary factors.The American statistics, which will be published on Friday, may support the dollar. S&P Global business activity indices are expected to show growth: in the manufacturing sector, an increase from 48.5 to 48.8 points is forecast, and in the services sector — from 55.0 to 55.2 points, which will confirm the stability of the US economy. Additionally, the market will focus on the speech of the head of the Swiss National Bank Martin Schlegel, which is scheduled for Friday at 14:40 (GMT+2). Investors will closely monitor his comments on monetary policy, given that Schlegel became head of the regulator only in October 2024, and his statements may provide a new vector for the movement of the franc.Resistance levels: 0.8865, 0.8900, 0.8935, 0.8964.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8730.USD/CAD: investors are preparing for the publication of October inflation in CanadaIn the morning hours, the USD/CAD pair shows recovery, playing back the decline recorded earlier in the week, which did not allow the instrument to gain a foothold at its maximum values since May 2020.Key data on inflation in Canada will be presented today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase from 1.6% to 1.9% in annual terms, and from -0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Experts, however, note that inflation in the country continues to be in a downward trend. In September, the main correction factor — a decrease in the cost of gasoline — was caused by a drop in oil prices to $ 65.0 per barrel. Analysts believe that this trend could have continued in October, despite a temporary increase in oil prices to $ 75.0 per barrel.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets experts predict that core inflation will remain in the range of 2.4–2.5%. Although the tax increase will support the rise in housing costs, this effect will be offset by lower mortgage costs due to the Bank of Canada's decision to lower interest rates in October. Economists are confident that the regulator will take an additional 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting scheduled for December 11.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, 1.3862.NZD/USD: New Zealand Producer Price Index shows 1.5% growth in Q3During morning trading, the NZD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding near the 0.5890 level. The dynamics is due to the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of positive macroeconomic data and the weakening of the position of the US currency.According to published statistics, in the third quarter, the index of producer selling prices in New Zealand increased from 1.1% to 1.5%, and purchasing prices — from 1.4% to 1.9%. The price indicator for capital goods also showed a slight increase of 0.1%. The exception was the price index for agricultural expenses, which decreased by 0.2%. However, reducing the cost of equipment and raw materials in the agricultural sector can be seen as a positive signal for the economy.The US dollar, on the contrary, continues to weaken, dropping to the level of 106.10 in USDX. Investors are reacting to expectations of rising inflation related to the policies of the new US President Donald Trump. His plans to impose import tariffs and tax cuts involve financing through increased government debt, raising concerns about possible inflationary pressures. Analysts believe that this may force the US Federal Reserve to reconsider plans for further monetary policy easing, which could increase pressure on the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5930, 0.6060.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5730.AUD/USD: the pair strengthens its growth on the background of data from the United StatesThe quotes of the AUD/USD pair show steady growth around 0.6508, continuing the upward momentum formed at the end of last week. The rise occurred after the pair retreated from local lows on August 5 amid the release of weak macroeconomic data from the United States.The markets drew attention to the slowdown in retail sales in October: the indicator fell from 0.8% to 0.4%, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.3%, but the results excluding motor transport fell from 1.0% to 0.1%, not meeting analysts' expectations of 0.3%. Industrial production decreased by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% a month earlier, and the capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.4% to 77.1%, contrary to forecasts of 77.2%. At the same time, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly rose from -11.9 points to 31.2 points in November, significantly exceeding the projected -0.7 points.The Australian currency is also affected by the publication of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting held on November 5. At that time, the regulator left the interest rate at 4.35%, stressing that the current policy is in line with current domestic and international economic conditions. The RBA expressed concern about the slow slowdown in inflation, which is projected to remain in the range of 2.0–3.0% until the third quarter of 2025, with a possible increase due to the end of energy subsidies. In addition, despite the stability of the labor market, the rate of employment growth slowed down, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Against the background of these events, the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, said that the current cost of borrowing is already having a sufficient limiting effect on the economy and will remain at this level until more stable inflation forecasts are received. This statement continues to support the bullish market sentiment for the Australian currency.Resistance levels: 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6622.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6478, 0.6440, ...
On Tuesday, after a significant decline yesterday, USD/CHF remains in a state of uncertainty, trading around 0.8836.Investors' attention is focused on weak data on Swiss industrial production. In the third quarter, its growth slowed from 7.0% to 3.5%. Additional pressure is exerted by negative inflation statistics. In October, the producer and import price index fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier, although analysts had expected an increase of 0.1%. In annual terms, the decline increased to -1.8% against the previous -1.3%.Important business activity data for November is being released in the United States. The index is projected to grow slightly in the manufacturing sector from 48.5 to 48.8 points, and in the service sector from 55.0 to 55.2 points. Also on Friday, there will be a speech by the head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, who took office in October 2024. The speech of the head of the regulator may have an impact on the further dynamics of the franc.USD/CHF Technical analysis for todayThe Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart shows growth, but the range is narrowing, which indicates mixed dynamics in the short term.The MACD indicator has gone into the negative zone, forming a sell signal.Stochastic is also decreasing, confirming the likelihood of continued downward dynamics, although it is in the middle of the operating range, which leaves room for maneuver.Open sales at a breakdown down to the level of 0.8827, with a target of 0.8750. We will place a stop loss at 0.8865.Long positions are possible with a rebound from the 0.8827 level with an upward breakout of resistance at 0.8865. The target is 0.8935. We will put the stop loss at ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
NZD/USD: rising inflation in New Zealand pushes the pair downDuring the Asian session on November 13, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.5970, which is 0.85% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. As of September 2024, the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from the previous 4.6%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. The business confidence index stood at 65.7 points in October, up from 60.9 points in September, but remains below the long-term average. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in September fell to 46.9 points from 45.8 points in August, remaining below the threshold level of 50, indicating a reduction in manufacturing activity. Retail sales in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in October in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Inflation data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to increase by 0.6% on a monthly basis and by 2.2% on an annual basis, which may affect further decisions of the regulator.In the United States, economic indicators show mixed results. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 4.8%, up from 4.6% in August, which may indicate a weakening of the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year in September, in line with analysts' expectations. The Federal Reserve System (FRS) left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in October, but in its statements indicated a possible tightening of monetary policy in the event of further inflation. Retail sales data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts predict an increase of 0.4% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, which may support the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5900.USD/CHF: the growth of industrial production in Switzerland strengthens the francDuring the Asian session on November 13, the USD/CHF pair shows an upward trend, trading around 0.8753, which is 0.32% higher than the level of the previous session.In Switzerland, economic indicators show moderate growth. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, indicating stable economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 2.3%, which corresponds to the previous month and indicates stability in the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year in October, which is below the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In October, the SNB left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, noting in its statement that the current monetary policy is in line with the economic situation. Industrial production data for September will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 0.5% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year, which may affect the position of the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.8780, 0.8800.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700.Platinum market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, platinum quotes show a downward trend, holding around $990.55 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in South Africa, one of the largest platinum producers, remains unstable. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), production is expected to decrease by 2% in 2024 due to restructuring and staff reductions at enterprises in the region after the fall in prices for palladium and rhodium. This could lead to a 12% reduction in global platinum reserves in 2024. In addition, stocks have already declined by 17% in 2023, reaching a four-year low of 3.62 million ounces. This situation creates prerequisites for a shortage of metal in the market, which can support prices in the medium term.China, the largest consumer of platinum, is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a decrease in manufacturing activity. Reduced demand from the automotive industry, where platinum is used in catalysts, may put pressure on metal prices. Chinese industrial production data for October will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, which may affect the dynamics of platinum prices.Resistance levels: 1,008.50, 1,020.00.Support levels: 972.15, 960.00.Oil Market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, Brent crude oil quotes showed a slight increase, trading around $72.06 per barrel, which is 0.24% higher than the level of the previous session.Price dynamics are influenced by the recent revision by OPEC of the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. The organization lowered its estimate of demand growth by 107 thousand barrels per day, expecting an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. This is due to the slowdown in economic growth in China and other developing countries. Additional pressure on prices is exerted by the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.On the other hand, the market is supported by concerns about possible supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially in light of recent events related to Iran. In addition, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which could potentially stimulate economic activity and, consequently, energy demand.Resistance levels: $73.50, $74.80.Support levels: $71.00, ...