USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, ...
GBP/USD: the regulator has maintained the current rate of 4.75%The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2480 mark after the Bank of England expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.75%. The decision was supported by a majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee - six out of nine participants, while three supported a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, assuming only two supporters of such a measure.Analysts note a change in the emphasis in the regulator's rhetoric from "unstable" to "balanced", which indicates a possible continuation of adjustments in 2025. The Bank of England expressed concern about the acceleration of inflation, noting an increase in the consumer price index from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and revised down its GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to experts, the regulator may reduce the rate to 3.50% over the next year in order to adapt to changing economic conditions.The US dollar is showing steady growth, reaching the level of 108.10 in the USDX index. The dynamics are supported by strong macroeconomic statistics: US GDP increased from 3.0% to 3.1% in the third quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 220 thousand, exceeding expectations, and repeat applications decreased to 1.874 million. There was also an increase in sales in the secondary housing market in November by 4.8%, to 4.15 million, which almost reached the March peak of 4.19 million, strengthening the position of the US currency.Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2300.USD/CHF: Swiss economy expects production growth of 1.7% by 2026The USD/CHF pair is trading in a mixed mode, being at 0.8980. After the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States, the instrument shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local peaks recorded in early July.Statistics provided by Switzerland the day before showed a noticeable drop in exports in November from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports decreased from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus decreased from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's economy was previously forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. These figures remain below the average annual growth of the Swiss economy, which is 1.8%. SECO analysts emphasize that next year's economic recovery is likely to depend on domestic demand. This is due to the weakening of interest in Swiss goods from key trading partners such as Germany and China, which limits the prospects for the export sector.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey may fall to 47.50% as early as December 26In the morning, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, reaching 35.1500 and updating historical highs. The strengthening of the dollar is associated with expectations of a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which supports demand for the US currency.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to internal economic challenges. The Central Bank of Turkey is considering the possibility of further reducing the interest rate, which has been held at 50.00% since March. Despite a slight slowdown, annual inflation in the country remains high, reaching 47.0% in November after peaking at 75.45% in May. The authorities plan to reduce the rate to 35.00% in 2024, which creates the prerequisites for a soft monetary policy. Analysts expect that at the meeting scheduled for December 26, the Turkish regulator may reduce the rate by 250 basis points from the current 50.00% to 47.50%. However, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan had previously refrained from making specific statements, saying that the final decision would depend on current economic data and the inflation forecast.Resistance levels: 35.1500, 35.2167, 35.3000, 35.4500.Support levels: 35.1000, 35.0500, 35.0000, 34.9500.NZD/USD: consolidation near minimum levelsThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.5625 level. Market activity remains low after a sharp drop in the instrument on Wednesday, caused by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the mood of traders.Today's data from New Zealand does not provide significant support to the New Zealand dollar. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose slightly from 99.8 to 100.2 points in December, exports rose from $5.61 billion to $6.48 billion in November, and imports declined from $7.27 billion to $6.92 billion. As a result, the trade deficit decreased to -0.437 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of -1.951 billion dollars, but did not give a serious impetus to the instrument. A day earlier, New Zealand's GDP data for the third quarter was published. On an annualized basis, the economic growth rate slowed by 1.5% after a 0.5% decline a month earlier, although analysts' expectations were -0.4%. In quarterly terms, the indicator increased from -1.1% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecasts of experts who expected a decrease to -0.4%. Although these data indicate some recovery, they do not yet have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.5661, 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5607, 0.5563, 0.5511, ...
On Friday, USD/CHF shows versatile fluctuations near the level of 0.8980. After testing local highs in early July, the asset declined amid the publication of fresh macroeconomic data from the United States.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of business activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell from -5.5 to -16.4 points in December, although analysts had forecast an increase to 3.0 points. The personal consumption expenditure price index increased by 1.5% in the third quarter, and its base version rose from 2.1% to 2.2%. Initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 242 thousand to 220 thousand, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 230 thousand, and the number of repeat applications decreased from 1.879 million to 1.874 million, also exceeding expectations. In addition, sales in the secondary housing market increased by 4.8% in November, reaching 4.15 million against the forecast of 4.07 million.Swiss statistics reflected a decline in trading activity. Exports decreased from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports fell from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs, reducing the trade surplus from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to SECO, the Swiss economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2023, 1.6% in 2025, and 1.7% in 2026, which is lower than the average annual growth of 1.8%. Experts see the main driver of the recovery in domestic demand, as demand for Swiss goods in Germany and China continues to decline.Investors also continue to analyze the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on December 18. As expected, the rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%. The regulator's new forecasts suggest a rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025, which differs from the September expectations of three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayJohn Murphy's technical analysis on the daily chart shows the expansion of the Bollinger bands, which opens up opportunities for a bullish trend. The MACD indicator indicates a steady buy signal. Stochastic also demonstrates an attempt to reverse downwards, signaling a possible overbought dollar in the short term.Trading recommendationssale with a confident breakdown of the 0.8957 level down. The target will be the 0.8900 mark. We will put the stop loss at 0.8990.buy will be possible if the 0.8957 level acts as support, and then the pair breaks the 0.9000 mark up. In this case, the prospect of growth to 0.9100 opens up. We will place the stop loss at ...
USD/CHF analysis for December 17, 2024During Tuesday morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to strengthen, developing a bullish trend that began last week. Quotes have updated the maximum from November 22 at 0.8955, however, market participants prefer to act cautiously, waiting for the results of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the interest rate will be reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%. This scenario is already embedded in market prices, so it is unlikely to put serious pressure on the US dollar. Investors, however, will focus on long-term interest rate forecasts for the next three years, as well as on the possible economic policy of Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.At the same time, the franc is under pressure from the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reduce the rate by 50 basis points — from 1.00% to 0.50%. This step turned out to be more aggressive than market expectations, where a decrease of only 25 points was predicted. In an accompanying statement, SNB representatives stressed their willingness to adjust monetary policy in the future in order to keep inflation within the target values. The regulator also does not rule out interventions in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the franc, which investors still consider as a reliable safe haven asset. Inflation forecasts have been adjusted downwards: the average consumer price index is expected to reach 1.1% in 2024 (previously 1.2%), 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%) and 0.8% in 2026 (previously 0.7%). The expected GDP growth in Switzerland will be about 1.0% this year and 1.0–1.5% next year (against the previous forecast of 1.5%). Meanwhile, the current inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the Eurozone. In November, the indicator was 0.7% in annual terms. The producer and import price index also decreased: on a monthly basis from -0.3% to -0.6% against the forecast of 0.2%, and in annual terms — from -1.8% to -1.5%. The SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter is expected to be published tomorrow at 16:00 (GMT+2).USD/CHF Technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Indicator shows steady growth. The MACD indicator continues to grow and maintains a strong buy signal. At the same time, Stochastic reached the overbought zone, slowed down and moved to a horizontal position, indicating possible risks of a correction of the US dollar in the near future.Trading recommendationslong positions after a confident breakdown of the 0.8957 level up with a target of 0.9037. The stop loss is set at 0.8915.sales with a rebound from the 0.8957 level and a breakdown of the key support of 0.8900 down. The target is 0.8827. We put the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a boost from the 1.0460 levelDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.12%, reaching 1.0515, continuing to develop positive dynamics after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.15%.ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the eurozone economy is facing a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of continuing high inflation. She also said that the regulator's next steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Investors' attention was focused on the data on industrial production in the eurozone published on Friday: the index for October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the negative trend. In addition, Germany presented weak statistics on foreign trade. Exports decreased by 2.8%, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of -2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.1% with an expected -0.6%. Nevertheless, the trade surplus increased to 13.4 billion euros. These data reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the EU's largest economy, which is likely to maintain the ECB's dovish position in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0720, 1.0825.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0290.USD/CHF: the pair is testing the resistance of 0.8920 against the background of the NBSH decisionThe USD/CHF pair is holding at 0.8908, trying to overcome the resistance of 0.8920 after the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once to 0.50%. Most analysts' forecasts suggested a more modest decrease of 25 basis points.The head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, explained that the slowdown in inflation in November turned out to be higher than experts' expectations, which makes it possible to accelerate the achievement of the regulator's monetary goals. At the same time, the weakening of business activity recorded in recent months required a more significant reduction in the cost of borrowing to stimulate the economy. The regulator also stressed its readiness to carry out currency interventions depending on the market situation, noting that a return to negative rates in the near future is unlikely. Against the background of these statements, the Swiss franc weakened, which supported the growth of the USD/CHF pair. This dynamic is developing within the framework of an uptrend that began back in October, and indicates a possible continuation of the strengthening of the US currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/CAD: quotes have stabilized at peak valuesDuring morning trading, the USD/CAD pair remains near the 1.4220 mark, not far from the April 2020 highs reached at the end of last week. The market remains low in activity, as traders expect the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on December 17-18. Most of the participants are confident that the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum, and will also provide comments on the further strategy.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector from S&P Global will be announced. Analysts predict that the values will remain at the same level: 49.7 points and 56.1 points, respectively. In addition, at 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tifa Macklem, is scheduled to speak. Tomorrow, the market's attention will focus on November inflation data in Canada: according to forecasts, the monthly change in the consumer price index will be 0.0% against the previous value of 0.4%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. Core inflation is likely to remain at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.AUD/USD: the decline in business activity in Australia undermines the growth of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is moving in a sideways trend near the 0.6375 level, continuing to show negative dynamics. The slowdown in activity against the background of limited trading in the US dollar could not significantly change the overall picture of the market.The national currency remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at 4.35%. The December data reflected a decline in business activity: the index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points, remaining in negative territory for the tenth month in a row, and the indicator in the service sector decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 points. The positive dynamics of the labor market in November somewhat smoothed out the overall negative: employment increased by 35.6 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. However, the weak manufacturing sector and limited support from fundamental factors make it difficult for the Australian dollar to rise. The probability of a strengthening of the national currency remains minimal, as the RBA maintains its current course to keep inflation down, avoiding radical changes in monetary policy.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6240.Resistance levels: 0.6400, ...
EUR/GBP: ECB ended the year by lowering all three key ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing smooth growth, continuing to strengthen after the bullish momentum recorded the day before. The quotes have retreated from the minimum values of March 2022 and are trying to break through the 0.8260 mark, showing stable upward dynamics.The British economy did not meet analysts' expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) for October. Instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, the indicator remained at -0.1%. Industrial production volumes also disappointed: in annual terms, the decrease was 0.7%, although growth of 0.2% was predicted, and on a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.6% instead of the expected 0.3%. This weak statistic increases the uncertainty surrounding the decisions of the Bank of England, whose next meeting is scheduled for December 19.Investors are analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) held the day before, where rates were reduced by 25 basis points. The key rate is now 3.15%, the margin rate is 3.40%, and the deposit rate is 3.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that domestic inflation is declining, but remains high, as the adaptation of wages and prices has not yet been completed. Forecasts for economic growth in the region have been revised downward: for 2024, the forecast is 0.7% instead of 0.8%, for 2025 — 1.1% instead of 1.3%, and for 2026 — 1.4% instead of 1.5%. Market participants' expectations are inclined to a more active reduction in ECB rates compared to the US Federal Reserve next year.Resistance levels: 0.8280, 0.8294, 0.8310, 0.8326.Support levels: 0.8259, 0.8238, 0.8223, 0.8200.USD/CHF: restoring the dominance of the American currencyThe USD/CHF pair is consolidating at 0.8927, demonstrating a corrective trend and willingness to continue moving up due to the strengthening of the US dollar.The Swiss National Bank maintains the stability of the franc through a dovish policy. The regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.50%, deviating from forecasts suggesting a decrease to 0.75% by 25 basis points. The regulator's statement emphasizes that the decrease in inflation in November turned out to be better than expected, which accelerates the achievement of monetary policy goals. In addition, the decision is due to low business activity, requiring affordable loans for recovery. Switzerland's economic prospects remain subdued, but analysts predict that GDP growth could reach 1.0–1.5% in 2025. This level will help to stabilize key economic processes and accelerate market recovery.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8890, 0.8780.NZD/USD: household spending in New Zealand remains under pressureThe NZD/USD pair is showing growth, reaching the level of 0.5765, despite the continued strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to move within the downward trend due to signs of slowing economic activity. According to the National Statistical Service of New Zealand (Stats.nz ), the volume of sales of electronic cards, reflecting the level of consumer spending, did not change in monthly terms in November, and the annual indicator deteriorated from -1.1% to -2.3%, remaining in negative territory for nine consecutive months. Among the key categories, spending growth was observed in the hospitality sector (+1.4%) and fuel purchases (+1.3%). At the same time, the largest decrease was recorded in spending on vehicle maintenance (-0.3%), the purchase of clothing and shoes (-1.0%), as well as durable goods (-0.2%).Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5920.Support levels: 0.5740, 0.5630.Platinum market analysisThis week, the XPT/USD pair showed diverse dynamics: starting with an increase in the area of 956.55, the quotes could not hold their positions and rolled back to 931.00, remaining under the influence of uncertainty about the upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System.The market expects that at the final meeting of the year, the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. However, the further trajectory of monetary policy raises questions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November, but inflation figures continue to rise. Thus, the consumer price index increased to 2.7%, and the producer price index recorded a third month of growth, reaching 3.0%, which exceeds the target values. Against this background, it is possible to suspend the easing cycle or significantly reduce its pace, which may limit the rate correction to one or two times a year. If, after the US Federal Reserve meeting, signals are heard about the suspension of the "dovish" exchange rate, this will put pressure on safe haven assets, including platinum. On the contrary, statements of readiness to continue lowering rates may help strengthen the position of metals against the dollar.Resistance levels: 968.75, 1000.00, 1031.25.Support levels: 926.70, 906.25, ...
EUR/USD: the market is preparing for the ECB's decision to lower key ratesThe EUR/USD pair shows a multidirectional movement, trading around the 1.0520 mark. Market activity remains low, as traders are waiting for the publication of key data on inflation in the United States, which may set the tone for further dynamics of the instrument.Tomorrow at 15:15 (GMT+2), the European Central Bank (ECB) plans to announce a reduction in three main interest rates — key, margin and deposit — by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.15%, 3.00% and 3.40%, respectively. These measures are due to a slowdown in growth in major eurozone economies such as Germany and France, where business sentiment continues to remain low. The problems are most acute in the manufacturing and service sectors. However, experts emphasize that the current monetary policy of the ECB has an impact: inflation in the eurozone remains controlled. In November, the consumer price index rose from 2.0% to 2.3% in annual terms, in line with forecasts, and on a monthly basis it decreased by 0.3% after a similar increase a month earlier. The underlying indicator also strengthened to 2.8% year-on-year, despite a decrease in monthly terms. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 17:15 (GMT+2), where she will announce the results of the meeting and, possibly, share forecasts for the further development of the region's economy. Market participants are waiting for her comments on the strategy of the financial authorities against the background of continuing global uncertainty and prospects for subsequent easing of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0554, 1.0600, 1.0629, 1.0665.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.USD/CHF: November inflation in the United States may become a driver for the pairThe USD/CHF pair continues to adjust, trading near the 0.8836 mark, against the background of the publication of neutral macroeconomic data.The Swiss consumer price index in November decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and rose from 0.6% to 0.7% year-on-year, remaining at minimum levels among the G10 countries. This is significantly below the target range of 0.0–2.0% indicated by the Swiss National Bank. As a result, experts are increasingly confident in the continuation of monetary policy easing: at the December 12 meeting, the interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2025, the rate may drop to the range of 0.00–0.25%.The US dollar remains stable, trading around the 106.00 mark in USDX, in anticipation of November inflation data, which will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The general consumer price index is expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is likely to remain at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Such data may support further Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in December, however, the regulator may consider the possibility of a pause in policy easing early next year, given the risk of accelerating inflation under the influence of economic reforms of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump.Resistance levels: 0.8860, 0.9000.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8680.USD/JPY: the pair maintains positions below the key zone of 157.70–152.00The USD/JPY pair shows sideways dynamics in the area of 151.54, where the yen is trying to strengthen its position against the background of a neutral movement of the US currency and expectations of a tightening policy by the Bank of Japan at the upcoming meeting.After the publication of key macroeconomic indicators, including data on the labor market and inflation, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter reduced its growth rate from 0.5% to 0.3%, which coincided with analysts' expectations and confirmed the stability of the economy. Judging by the latest comments, the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate at its meeting on December 19. Additionally, the price index for corporate goods in November remained at 0.3% month-on-month, while the annual rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7%. However, preliminary statistics on orders in mechanical engineering showed a sharp slowdown from 9.3% to 3.0%, reflecting the pressure of geopolitical factors and a decrease in foreign demand. The decision of the Bank of Japan will largely depend on the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for December 17-18. If the US regulator leaves the rate unchanged or reduces it by 25 basis points, the probability of raising the Japanese rate by a similar amount will increase significantly.Resistance levels: 152.40, 155.40.Support levels: 150.60, 146.90.Oil market analysisDuring morning trading, WTI Crude Oil demonstrates the strengthening of the "bullish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week. Quotes reached the level of 68.70, trying to overcome it against the background of stabilization of the situation in Syria, which previously could have caused disruptions in the supply of raw materials. At the same time, the projected growth in fuel demand in China next year has a restraining effect on the downward trend. Meanwhile, representatives of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil exporter, reported a decrease in supply prices for Asian countries in January 2025 to the lowest values since the beginning of 2021, due to weakening demand from China.Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market expects the publication of inflation data in the United States. Forecasts suggest an increase in the consumer price index in annual terms from 2.6% to 2.7% and on a monthly basis from 0.2% to 0.3%. The basic indicator, excluding volatile categories of goods, may remain at the level of 3.3% year—on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Analysts believe that these data are unlikely to change current expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December 17-18 meeting. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of such an outcome is estimated at 90.0%.Additionally, the attention of market participants is focused on data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded an increase in oil reserves for the week from 1,232 million to 0.499 million barrels, with a forecast decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Today at 17:30 (GMT+2), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its report: reserves are projected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels after falling by 5.073 million barrels earlier. The EIA also adjusted production forecasts: for 2023, the value was increased by 10 thousand barrels per day to 13.24 million, and for 2025, it was reduced by the same amount to 13.52 million barrels per day. The demand for oil, according to the ministry, this year decreased by 100 thousand barrels per day to 103.03 million, and the forecast for 2025 was reduced by 30 thousand barrels per day to 104.32 million.Resistance levels: 69.06, 69.47, 70.00, 71.00.Support levels: 68.30, 67.53, 67.00, ...
EUR/USD: November inflation in Germany decreased by -0.2%The EUR/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding in the area of 1.0557. The main driver is the weakening of the US dollar, and market participants are preparing for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), which additionally supports the single currency.According to the data, in November, the consumer price index in Germany showed a decrease from 0.4% to -0.2% on a monthly basis, which led to an increase in the value from 2.0% to 2.2% year-on-year, as expected by experts. The harmonized indicator according to EU standards was adjusted from 0.4% to -0.7%, maintaining the annual mark at 2.4%. The ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday at 15:15 (GMT+2), may make additional changes: investors expect a rate cut from 3.40% to 3.15%.The neutral behavior of the dollar, which remains near the 106.00 mark in the USDX index, has an additional impact on the dynamics of the pair. Markets are waiting for tomorrow's data on inflation in the United States, which will form the basis for further decisions by the Fed at its meeting on December 18. According to forecasts, the consumer price index will grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis and from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis, while the base indicator will remain at 3.3%. These data may keep pressure on the regulator in favor of further easing of monetary policy, which fuels expectations for a rate cut of -25 basis points.Support levels: 1.0510, 1.0340.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0710.GBP/USD: the market expects the Bank of England rate to remain at 4.75%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate near the 1.2745 level, while trading volume remains low, as market participants assess the impact of the November employment report in the United States on the further dynamics of the asset.Important macroeconomic statistics for October will be published in the UK on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2). The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to show an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier. At the same time, experts predict an improvement in the situation in the industrial sector: output is likely to grow by 0.3% compared with a 0.5% drop in September, and in annual terms the indicator will increase by 0.2% against the previous decline of 1.8%.Last week, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, in an interview with The Financial Times, announced four possible interest rate cuts of 25 basis points if inflation continues to show a slowing trend. According to him, the decrease in price pressure is faster than the regulator's forecasts, but the October inflation statistics turned out to be higher than expected. The consumer price index rose from 1.7% to 2.3% in annual terms, with a forecast of 2.2%, and rose from 0.0% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. Core inflation has also changed: the annual rate accelerated from 3.2% to 3.3%, and the monthly rate increased from 0.1% to 0.4%. Despite this, the market is almost certain that at the meeting on December 19, the regulator will keep the current interest rate at 4.75%.Resistance levels: 1.2776, 1.2817, 1.2860, 1.2900.Support levels: 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600.USD/CHF: bearish dynamics intensifies against the background of an expanding rangeDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 0.8775 mark. Market participants are waiting for key events that can set the further direction of the asset's movement.On Thursday at 10:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to the level of 0.75%. Since the beginning of the year, the regulator has already adjusted the indicator three times, bringing it to 1.0%, but the head of the SNB, Martin Schlegel, allowed the possibility of a more significant decrease, including a transition to negative values, in order to weaken demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency.Meanwhile, the results of a survey conducted by Ernst & Young Global Ltd. Together with the Swiss Retail Federation, they showed that households on average plan to spend about 282 francs on Christmas shopping — similar to last year's values. However, more than half of the 753 respondents admitted that they would limit holiday spending due to rising prices for goods and services.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8865, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700.USD/CAD: the growth momentum of the US currency remains strongThe USD/CAD pair is showing steady strengthening, developing the bullish trend formed last week. Current trading is taking place around 1.4180, and the instrument is aiming for an upward breakout, updating the highs recorded in April 2020.The growth of the US dollar is supported by the strong indicators of the US labor market for November, published on Friday. The country's economy added 227.0 thousand jobs outside the agricultural sector, significantly exceeding the previous result of 36.0 thousand and analysts' expectations of 200.0 thousand. The average hourly wage remained at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.0% on an annual basis, despite the projected decline. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. These data reinforced expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 17-18. At the moment, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at more than 80.0%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.The key factor that can influence further dynamics will be the November statistics on inflation in the United States, scheduled for publication tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis, and will grow from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis. The base values are likely to be fixed at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.3% on an annual basis, which may become an additional driver of the dollar's strengthening.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, ...
The USD/CHF rate is the ratio of the US dollar and the Swiss franc. Experienced traders call the USD/CHF currency pair "Swiss", which is considered the only franc still issued in the EU.The USD/CHF forecast for today is based on 20 indicators and reflects the strength of the signal on different timeframes. The forecast for USD/CHF is constantly updated, keep track of the date of the last update. The forecast does not contain a specific strategy and reflects a general recommendation based on technical analysis.General characteristics of USDCHFThe USD/CHF currency pair is considered a direct quote, in which the dollar acts as the base currency, and the Swiss franc is quoted.By buying this duet, the investor pays in francs and purchases US dollars on his own account.For example, the USD/CHF rate at 0.8918 implies that 0.8918 francs will be paid for 1 dollar – the USD/CHF quote has 4 decimal places.CHF is an abbreviation of "Confoederatio Helvetica Franc".It reflects the state of the economy of neutral Switzerland as one of the most developed and stable countries in Europe. Switzerland has long been considered the main banking center of the Old World for investors around the world, which still guarantees relative privacy. That is why in the modern world, the banks of this state have the most diverse customer base, in a geographical sense. This fact is already considered a serious prerequisite for the fundamental growth of the Swiss franc, which is periodically influenced by the reporting of exporters.Read more: GBP/CHF: online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & featuresAnalytics and factors of influence of USD/CHF (what do quotes depend on)The state that is the issuer of the Swiss franc has a strong lever of pressure on the USD/CHF exchange rate. Switzerland occupies a special position in the international monetary system.With more than 4,000 reliable banks and being a recognized center of world banking, this state uses its reputation to attract foreign capital.The most leading and major banks in the world are Swiss Credit Suisse and UBS. However, the Swiss economy is not the most popular topic in the world, but traders always follow monetary policy and news from the Swiss National Bank.During periods of crisis, significant cash flows tend to Swiss banks, further spurring the demand for the Swiss franc. Thus, in a state with a stable political system and economy, it is possible to create an ideal business climate.Analysis of the USDCHF The peculiarity of the USD/CHF exchange rate is that the change in quotations by 90% occurs due to the growth or fall of the dollar, since the franc itself has been stable for centuries. Therefore, when making a forecast for USD/CHF, it is important to take into account some important factors that are published in the USA:Reduction/increase of interest rates;Employment in various industries;Number of applications for unemployment;Consumer Demand Index;Decrease/increase in GDP.In addition to financial publications, it is necessary to monitor the reports of the head of the US Federal Reserve, information about emergencies and the political situation in the country. In second place in importance are factors such as:Unemployment indicator;Raw material price levels;Statements by the top officials of the Swiss central bank.Read more: EUR/CHF: exchange rate, online quotes, signals and forecast for todayIt is important to understand that the movement in the market does not appear from the publication of some news fact, but because of the discrepancy between the expectations of investors and the received data. The quotation schedule changes greatly only when the published statement differs significantly from the forecast.USD/CHF was considered a mirror image of the extremely liquid pair of the forex exchange – EUR/USD. A similar trend has been applied by traders to analyze other currency pairs. Despite the actually inverse correlation, USD/CHF responds a little earlier than the rest to economic events in the United States, as if warning the fast tools of the rest of the FOREX market.There is also a downside to this phenomenon: traders with rich experience use pairs such as EUR/CHF and EUR/USD to outperform USD/CHF and speculate on arbitration.For example, there was positive information about the rise of America's GDP. In this case, the national currency of the Americans will begin to grow. This will affect USD/CAD first, then AUD/USD will react and begin to slowly decline. Accordingly, the euro quotes are moving to the British pound, and USD/CHF will be the last to start growing.How best to trade on USDCHFThe USD CHFTRADERS are interested in trading the provided quote for a number of factors:The USD/CHF exchange rate is quite simply predicted, and the results obtained very much justify their expectations;The pair actually has no sudden jumps in quotes, which will have a positive effect on the work of young traders;It is considered one of the most highly liquid pairs.The strong impact on the quotation chart is created by the US dollar, which simplifies the analysis of the instrument for an unprepared investor and gives him a good guideline.Over the past 2 years, traders have been following the sideways movement of the price in the 1000-point corridor. Trading in the USD/CHF side corridor is peculiar, but this greatly simplifies the approaches used in working with this instrument.Read more: NZD/CHF: characteristics, features, signals, analysis & trading forecastsOn average, the USD/CHF exchange rate works out no more than 60 points per day, sometimes 100-120 – but this is a relative rarity. Due to the peculiar liquidity/volatility ratio, when trading USD/CHF, it is better to use simple technical analysis tools – support and resistance lines, indicators and figures.The scalper's work with the USD/CHF instrument will not be able to bring good results for the investor. The 15-minute frame is dominated by a downward trend with low volatility.Firstly, such a trend does not make it possible to earn income on sharp price movements on the stock exchange.Secondly, investors in this situation will not be able to stay in the cache at least once a day and take the proceeds.The most active trading on USD/CHF takes place during the American trading session, when New York connects to European traders. During the Asian and Pacific sessions, movements are minimal.Features of the USD CHF currency pairIt should be noted that the dollar / franc is called a very specific pair. It is not suitable for any trader. Quote trading gives a beginner the opportunity to gain some experience, but do not take this pair as a quick way to earn good interest. As the most characteristic features of USD/CHF, it should be noted:Increased liquidity and low volatility;Small profit potential in short- and ultra-short-term trading;A strong dependence on the financial statistics of Americans;The probability of applying a quote as an indicator of parsing to other pairs.Until January 15, 2015, the Swiss government maintained a tight peg of its currency to the euro. The moment when the franc was sent to "free float" was a surprise and in many ways a tragic event for traders who are in long positions with shoulders on the USD/CHF position.The breakthrough in the moment was more than 25%.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewOn that day, negative amounts appeared on the accounts of some players, which are a consequence of the fact that risk managers physically could not have time to carry out the margin call procedure, not to mention the usual stop orders.Transactions collapsed at current prices with a huge delay, which caused even greater panic.In many ways, the situation was saved by the fact that most FOREX brokers insure their clients' deposits against a negative balance. In the end, no one owed their brokers, but traders still remember this day as the worst dream of their career. On the other hand, some traders have become permanently rich by simply taking the opposite short position before this ill-fated day. By the way, this situation with failed stops is impossible when trading and hedging positions with ...
