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Trading signals and online forecasts USD/CHF

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USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank may start lowering rates
USD/CHF, currency, USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank may start lowering rates Trading idea for USD/CHF dated February 21, 2024In the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CHF pair shows almost zero dynamics, trading near the level of 0.8800. The low volatility of currency pairs is explained by the wait-and-see attitude of traders before the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) at 19:00 GMT today.From the Fed minutes, traders hope to have a clearer picture of the prospects for the regulator's monetary policy, especially in terms of the first reduction in the key interest rate. Representatives of the FOMC will also speak today, expressing their views on the Fed's next steps. According to the Fedwatch Tool, markets currently estimate an almost 70% probability that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged at the next two meetings. The probability of a rate cut in June is 52%, but if there is additional evidence of an increase in inflation or an improvement in the national labor market, monetary policy easing may be postponed to the second half of the year. It is important to note that the opinions of the voting members of the Fed have changed a lot in recent days, and even under the most optimistic scenario, it is now assumed that the key rate will be lowered only twice this year, and not three or more, as previously assumed. Given this, the dollar's strengthening potential has not yet been exhausted.The franc remained under pressure after the publication of inflation data in Switzerland. In January, the consumer price index was 0.2%, which was lower than the expected 0.6%, and the annual rate decreased to 1.3% from the previous 1.7%. In this regard, the Swiss National Bank may consider the possibility of an early reduction in the key interest rate at its meeting on March 21. In light of the above, preference remains for long positions on the USD/CHF pair.We offer to set up orders:Buy-stop 0.8830take-profit 0.9000stop-loss ...
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Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, February 15, 2024
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, February 15, 2024 In Asian trading on Thursday, USD/CHF showed a slight decline, developing a "bearish" momentum on Wednesday. The pair is currently testing the 0.8850 level for a downside breakout.Market participants continue to analyze the January inflation data published on Tuesday in the United States, which further strengthened the opinion on postponing the start of the Fed's rate cut cycle. The consumer price index slowed from 3.4% to 3.1% (YoY), falling short of expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator recovered from 0.2% to 0.3%, while analysts did not predict any changes. Core inflation accelerated by 0.4% per month and 3.9% (YoY), exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. In Switzerland, the index gained 0.2% in January, while +0.6% was expected. Annual inflation decreased from 1.7% to 1.3%.Data on industrial inflation and consumer confidence from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) for the first quarter will be presented today. Statistics assess household spending that affects economic activity. The production and import price index is expected to decrease by 0.2% in January after -0.6% in the previous month. This may put pressure on the national currency.USD/CHF Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the main forex indicators reflect steady growth. However, the activity of the "bulls" has not yet been observed. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal. Stochastic is flat in the region of maximum values.Above the resistance of 0.8900, we return to purchases in the direction of 0.9000. We set the stop loss at 0.8850.When the pair is fixed below 0.8850, we move to short positions with a take profit of 0.8760. We will place the stop loss at ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th GBP/USD: awaiting key economic data from the US and the UKThe GBP/USD currency pair shows a multidirectional movement, approaching the level of 1.2630 and continuing to rise after a significant pullback at the start of last week. At the same time, market activity remains subdued in anticipation of important economic reports from the United States and the United Kingdom.Investors are looking forward to analyzing the upcoming report on the UK labor market for the period December–January. It is expected that the growth of average wages with bonuses will decrease from 6.5% to 5.7%, and without bonuses — from 6.6% to 6.0%. The unemployment rate is also projected to decrease from 4.2% to 4.0%. With the start of the American trading session, attention will switch to the January US inflation indicators. While no significant changes are expected, the market hopes that the data may prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Forecasts indicate a possible decrease in the consumer price index from 3.4% to 3.0% on an annual basis and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: the currency is stable near the peak values on December 13During the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing fluctuations, trying to overcome the 0.8750 threshold and remaining near the peak values recorded on December 13, amid a decrease in the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Also this week, inflation data from Switzerland will be closely studied, where price growth is projected to slow from 1.7% to 1.6% and stabilize at 0.0% both monthly and annualized. At the same time, during the Chinese-Swiss strategic dialogue, the desire to strengthen open economic ties was emphasized. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis expressed readiness for deep cooperation with China in the fields of finance, science, innovation, education, intellectual property protection and environmental development.Resistance levels: 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8850.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8630.AUD/USD: the exchange rate decreases as the reverse head and shoulders pattern is executedThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a downward trend, stabilizing around 0.6515 against the background of disappointing Australian economic statistics.The Australian Bureau of Statistics report for December shows a decline in retail and wholesale trade by 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, with a decrease in volumes in eight of the thirteen sectors. The mining industry and the water supply sector are particularly affected, with falls of 6.6% and 3.6%. At the same time, the construction sector and catering services showed growth of 13.9% and 6.1%. Consumer spending increased by 2.3%, which was the lowest growth since February 2021.The market reaction to the speech by Reserve Bank of Australia representative Michelle Bullock was positive. She pointed out that the RBA could lower the interest rate without waiting for inflation to hit the target range of 2.0–3.0%, although the possibility of tightening monetary policy remains open. Bullock suggests that even with an optimistic scenario for Australia's economic development, a significant decrease in inflation below target values in the next four years is unlikely.Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6380.USD/JPY: Yen may update record lowThe Japanese currency is losing ground against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair moving towards the peak values of autumn around 151.70.Due to the current economic situation, the Japanese currency is not showing strengthening, and without repeated intervention by the Bank of Japan in the market, similar to the autumn one, a sharp drop in the exchange rate may follow. According to the latest data, bank lending in Japan increased by 3.1% in January, accelerating from the previous 3.0%, while the current account balance decreased to 0.744 trillion yen from 1.926 trillion yen. The increase in purchases of foreign bonds was observed from 385.5 billion yen to 456.6 billion yen, while the volume of foreign investments in Japanese stocks decreased from 721.0 billion yen to 308.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 149.90, 151.70.Support levels: 148.30, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD and gold on Wednesday, February 7
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD and gold on Wednesday, February 7 EUR/USD: the rate has left the trend channel with a range of 1.1100–1.0850During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair demonstrates ambiguous behavior, remaining near the 1.0760 level in anticipation of new catalysts for movement.After a recent decline below 104,000, the US dollar is experiencing a correction today, stabilizing around 103.900 on the USD index. On Wednesday, the market will focus on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), where last week's rate level on 30-year mortgages reached 6.78%, and current expectations indicate a slight decrease to 6.76% amid a decrease in total lending by 7.2%. Traders are carefully analyzing the latest employment data, which exceeded expectations, giving the Federal Reserve a reason to continue its cautious approach. Confirmation of the expectation strategy from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who stressed the importance of convincing evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target 2%, led to a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts at the March meeting to 20%, while forecasts for the May period reached 65%.Resistance levels: 1.0790, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0720, 1.0570.USD/CHF: January unemployment in Switzerland reached 2.5%, without seasonalityDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows uncertain fluctuations, stabilizing around 0.8700 after a recent departure from December highs.Switzerland recorded an increase in the unemployment rate to 2.5% without taking into account seasonal adjustments, while the adjusted indicator remained at 2.2%. In light of this, the state budget is expected to show a deficit of about 2.5 billion Swiss francs, which will force the government to look for ways to reduce costs in key sectors, including social security, defense spending and asylum, in order to minimize pressure on the economy. An increase in taxes on tobacco and tobacco products is also expected.Investors' main attention today is focused on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who can assess the future course of monetary policy, including the possibilities of reducing the cost of lending. It is expected that the volume of consumer lending will decrease from the previous value of $ 23.75 billion to $ 16.00 billion, according to experts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.8730, 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8820.Support levels: 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8630, 0.8600.GBP/USD: pound is experiencing the 1.2600 level for an upward breakoutIn the morning trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair is trying to gain a foothold above the 1.2600 level, continuing the growth started the day before, when the pound was able to move away from the minimum values recorded on December 13, 2023. This rise is mainly due to technical aspects, while the main economic picture remains stable.Recently published economic reports from the UK and the USA have not brought significant changes in the market. However, retail sales statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) for January showed an increase of 1.4% after an increase of 1.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.2%. The index of activity in the UK construction sector in January rose to 48.8 points from 46.8, ahead of the forecast of 47.3 points and reaching a maximum in three years, which gives grounds for optimism about the future easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England and the subsequent recovery of the industry. On the other hand, the US data noted a moderate increase in the Redbook retail sales index to 6.1% on February 2 from the previous 5.0%, while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index fell from 44.7 to 44.0 points, missing the projected 47.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Gold: quarter analysisOver the past three months, the precious metals sector has been in a state of consolidation, a process that analysts often describe as an "accumulation of strength." During this period, major market players gradually increase their investments, avoiding massive capital injections at once. Experts are confident that significant movement in this area is inevitable this year, based on the current economic situation. For example, this month, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar did not find support in the form of large investments, remaining in the range of 103,000–104,000 according to the USDX index. After the improvement in the global economic situation, the Fed's leadership began to speak in favor of a potential transition to a more lenient policy, although specific deadlines have not yet been determined. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) estimates that the probability of maintaining the current rate level for March is 78.5%, indicating that regulators are not ready to start quantitative easing due to concerns about accelerating inflation.Meanwhile, global demand for precious metals significantly exceeds supply. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2023, the volume of demand reached 4,448.0 tons, which is 4.0% less than in record 2022. The annual decrease was mainly due to a 12.0% decrease in the last quarter to 1,150.0 tons compared to the same period of the previous year, while global supply-side production increased by 1.0% to 3,644.0 tons. Last year, central banks purchased 1,037.0 tons of precious ...
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