EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, ...
Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also ...
USD/CHF analysis on April 8, 2025The USD/CHF pair stabilized at 0.8574, reflecting the desire of investors to redistribute capital into less volatile assets. The Swiss franc is traditionally in demand as a defensive asset, but the current situation requires a deeper analysis of fundamental factors.Swiss inflation remained at 0.3%, which corresponds to the lower limit of the target range of the National Bank. However, this stable position may be disrupted by the new 31% US tariffs on imports. According to a study by Capital Economics, these measures may weaken economic activity and inflationary pressures, creating the prerequisites for lowering the interest rate to zero as early as June. At the same time, it is worth noting that the US share of Swiss exports is a significant 19%, which makes the country vulnerable to trade shocks.The dollar index is showing moderate strengthening and has reached 102.50. Paradoxically, the initiatives of the Trump administration are putting pressure not only on trading partners, but also on the US domestic economy. A recent statement by Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee confirmed the Fed's cautious approach - the regulator does not plan to rush to change rates, preferring to wait for new data. As a result, market expectations for policy easing dropped from 60% to 33% in May.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows that the pair continues to move within the descending channel of 0.8500-0.8760. The indicators give mixed signals: the Alligator remains bearish, while the Awesome Oscillator indicator shows signs of correction in the negative zone.Trading recommendationsUnder the current conditions, two scenarios are possible.Sales become relevant when the pair is fixed below 0.8550 with the prospect of moving towards 0.8400. We will set the protective stop loss at 0.8630.For purchases, it is necessary to overcome the resistance of 0.8630, which will open the way to testing the upper limit of the 0.8760 channel. In this case, we will place the stop loss at ...
The USD/CHF pair is showing a steady downward trend, and after another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, it reached the level of 0.8791. The regulator eased monetary policy for the fifth time in a row, setting the key rate at 0.25%, which corresponds to the interim target. This move forced analysts at Citigroup Inc. to revise forecasts, narrowing the expected trading range to 0.8500-0.9000 against previous expectations of the upper limit at 0.9300.The head of the NBS Martin Schlegel pointed to the continuing uncertainty in the global economy caused by trade restrictions from the United States. These measures create difficulties for long-term forecasting of economic development dynamics. At the same time, the regulator expects a possible acceleration of inflationary processes, which may lead to a pause in the cycle of monetary expansion. NBS continues to monitor the situation, ready to make additional adjustments if necessary to maintain price stability.The US dollar index continues to weaken for the third consecutive session. The USDX index sank to 103.50. Pressure on the US currency increased after the publication of data from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index fell to 52.6 points (the lowest since July 2022), and the overall consumer sentiment index fell to 57.0 points (the lowest level since November 2022).USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is correcting within the descending channel with the boundaries of 0.8850-0.8650. Technical indicators confirm the bearish signal:- The fast moving averages on the Alligator indicator are located below the signal line- The Awesome Oscillator indicator forms ascending bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales- Entry when anchored below 0.8760- Target level: 0.8630- Protective order: 0.8820For purchases- Entry at an upward breakout of 0.8850- Target level: 0.8990- Protective order: ...
On Monday, USD/CHF is correcting around 0.8835 after updating the December 6 low last week. Market participants expect new drivers to appear for the further movement of quotations.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the March data on business activity in the Eurozone. The index in the service sector is expected to grow from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. In Germany, the indicators may also improve: in the service sector — from 51.1 to 51.4 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 46.5 to 47.7 points.At 15:45 (GMT+2), similar data for the United States will be published: the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is likely to decrease from 52.7 to 51.9 points, and in the service sector it will increase from 51.0 to 51.2 points.The economic expectations index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) for March will be released on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2). Earlier, the index value fell from 17.7 to 3.4 points, which is significantly worse than expected. The quarterly report of the National Bank of Switzerland (NBSH) will be published at 14:00 (GMT+2).The US Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 4.5%, but revised its forecasts: for the current year, the median forecast was lowered from 4.4% to 3.9%, for 2026 from 3.9% to 3.4%, and for 2027 from 3.4% to 3.1%. Long-term expectations remained at 3.0%.The Swiss National Bank lowered the rate to 0.25%, which was the fifth decline in a row. The decision was made against the background of a slowdown in inflation to 0.3% in annual terms in February, the lowest level in the last four years.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe Daily (d1) chart shows that the Bollinger Band indicator is turning horizontally, while the MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- We will consider purchases after the breakout of the 0.8863 level. The target is 0.8929. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.8827.- Sales will be possible after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.8800 with a target of 0.8755. In this case, we will place the stop loss at 0.8827.Thus, the USD/CHF pair remains influenced by both macroeconomic data and central bank decisions. The current correction creates opportunities for trading both up and down, depending on the breakdown of key ...
EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, ...
USD/CHF amalysis on March 19, 2025After an active decline over the previous two days, when USD/CHF updated the lows on March 10, the pair showed a slight correction on Wednesday. Quotes are testing the 0.8770 level for a downward breakout. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.Experts are almost certain that the Fed will keep its key interest rate at 4.5%. However, the market's attention will be focused on clarifying the long-term prospects for monetary policy. Donald Trump's protectionism, with a sharp increase in import duties, puts pressure on the stability of the dollar.The US macroeconomic data is also worrisome. In February, industrial production grew by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%. The level of production capacity utilization increased to 78.2% against expectations of 77.8%. The volume of construction started increased sharply from -11.5% to 11.2%, reaching 1,501 million, which was also higher than the forecast of 1.38 million.February data on Switzerland's foreign trade will be published on Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2). Previously, exports amounted to 24.45 billion francs and imports to 18.33 billion francs, resulting in a trade surplus of 6.12 billion francs.A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2). According to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 economists expect an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it will remain until at least 2026. This decision is supported by the low inflation rate, which reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February. However, the weakness of the Swiss franc may create risks of rising prices in the near term.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart (D1), the Bollinger Band indicator indicates a mixed trading pattern in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, forming a weak sell signal. Stochastic is showing a more confident decline, being near the oversold zoneTrading recommendations- We will consider selling after the breakdown down to the level of 0.8758 with a target of 0.8669. It is recommended to set a stop loss of 0.8800.- Purchases are possible after a rebound from the 0.8758 level and an upward breakdown of 0.8800. The target is 0.8900. The stop loss is ...
The USD/CHF rate is the ratio of the US dollar and the Swiss franc. Experienced traders call the USD/CHF currency pair "Swiss", which is considered the only franc still issued in the EU.The USD/CHF forecast for today is based on 20 indicators and reflects the strength of the signal on different timeframes. The forecast for USD/CHF is constantly updated, keep track of the date of the last update. The forecast does not contain a specific strategy and reflects a general recommendation based on technical analysis.General characteristics of USDCHFThe USD/CHF currency pair is considered a direct quote, in which the dollar acts as the base currency, and the Swiss franc is quoted.By buying this duet, the investor pays in francs and purchases US dollars on his own account.For example, the USD/CHF rate at 0.8918 implies that 0.8918 francs will be paid for 1 dollar – the USD/CHF quote has 4 decimal places.CHF is an abbreviation of "Confoederatio Helvetica Franc".It reflects the state of the economy of neutral Switzerland as one of the most developed and stable countries in Europe. Switzerland has long been considered the main banking center of the Old World for investors around the world, which still guarantees relative privacy. That is why in the modern world, the banks of this state have the most diverse customer base, in a geographical sense. This fact is already considered a serious prerequisite for the fundamental growth of the Swiss franc, which is periodically influenced by the reporting of exporters.Read more: GBP/CHF: online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & featuresAnalytics and factors of influence of USD/CHF (what do quotes depend on)The state that is the issuer of the Swiss franc has a strong lever of pressure on the USD/CHF exchange rate. Switzerland occupies a special position in the international monetary system.With more than 4,000 reliable banks and being a recognized center of world banking, this state uses its reputation to attract foreign capital.The most leading and major banks in the world are Swiss Credit Suisse and UBS. However, the Swiss economy is not the most popular topic in the world, but traders always follow monetary policy and news from the Swiss National Bank.During periods of crisis, significant cash flows tend to Swiss banks, further spurring the demand for the Swiss franc. Thus, in a state with a stable political system and economy, it is possible to create an ideal business climate.Analysis of the USDCHF The peculiarity of the USD/CHF exchange rate is that the change in quotations by 90% occurs due to the growth or fall of the dollar, since the franc itself has been stable for centuries. Therefore, when making a forecast for USD/CHF, it is important to take into account some important factors that are published in the USA:Reduction/increase of interest rates;Employment in various industries;Number of applications for unemployment;Consumer Demand Index;Decrease/increase in GDP.In addition to financial publications, it is necessary to monitor the reports of the head of the US Federal Reserve, information about emergencies and the political situation in the country. In second place in importance are factors such as:Unemployment indicator;Raw material price levels;Statements by the top officials of the Swiss central bank.Read more: EUR/CHF: exchange rate, online quotes, signals and forecast for todayIt is important to understand that the movement in the market does not appear from the publication of some news fact, but because of the discrepancy between the expectations of investors and the received data. The quotation schedule changes greatly only when the published statement differs significantly from the forecast.USD/CHF was considered a mirror image of the extremely liquid pair of the forex exchange – EUR/USD. A similar trend has been applied by traders to analyze other currency pairs. Despite the actually inverse correlation, USD/CHF responds a little earlier than the rest to economic events in the United States, as if warning the fast tools of the rest of the FOREX market.There is also a downside to this phenomenon: traders with rich experience use pairs such as EUR/CHF and EUR/USD to outperform USD/CHF and speculate on arbitration.For example, there was positive information about the rise of America's GDP. In this case, the national currency of the Americans will begin to grow. This will affect USD/CAD first, then AUD/USD will react and begin to slowly decline. Accordingly, the euro quotes are moving to the British pound, and USD/CHF will be the last to start growing.How best to trade on USDCHFThe USD CHFTRADERS are interested in trading the provided quote for a number of factors:The USD/CHF exchange rate is quite simply predicted, and the results obtained very much justify their expectations;The pair actually has no sudden jumps in quotes, which will have a positive effect on the work of young traders;It is considered one of the most highly liquid pairs.The strong impact on the quotation chart is created by the US dollar, which simplifies the analysis of the instrument for an unprepared investor and gives him a good guideline.Over the past 2 years, traders have been following the sideways movement of the price in the 1000-point corridor. Trading in the USD/CHF side corridor is peculiar, but this greatly simplifies the approaches used in working with this instrument.Read more: NZD/CHF: characteristics, features, signals, analysis & trading forecastsOn average, the USD/CHF exchange rate works out no more than 60 points per day, sometimes 100-120 – but this is a relative rarity. Due to the peculiar liquidity/volatility ratio, when trading USD/CHF, it is better to use simple technical analysis tools – support and resistance lines, indicators and figures.The scalper's work with the USD/CHF instrument will not be able to bring good results for the investor. The 15-minute frame is dominated by a downward trend with low volatility.Firstly, such a trend does not make it possible to earn income on sharp price movements on the stock exchange.Secondly, investors in this situation will not be able to stay in the cache at least once a day and take the proceeds.The most active trading on USD/CHF takes place during the American trading session, when New York connects to European traders. During the Asian and Pacific sessions, movements are minimal.Features of the USD CHF currency pairIt should be noted that the dollar / franc is called a very specific pair. It is not suitable for any trader. Quote trading gives a beginner the opportunity to gain some experience, but do not take this pair as a quick way to earn good interest. As the most characteristic features of USD/CHF, it should be noted:Increased liquidity and low volatility;Small profit potential in short- and ultra-short-term trading;A strong dependence on the financial statistics of Americans;The probability of applying a quote as an indicator of parsing to other pairs.Until January 15, 2015, the Swiss government maintained a tight peg of its currency to the euro. The moment when the franc was sent to "free float" was a surprise and in many ways a tragic event for traders who are in long positions with shoulders on the USD/CHF position.The breakthrough in the moment was more than 25%.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewOn that day, negative amounts appeared on the accounts of some players, which are a consequence of the fact that risk managers physically could not have time to carry out the margin call procedure, not to mention the usual stop orders.Transactions collapsed at current prices with a huge delay, which caused even greater panic.In many ways, the situation was saved by the fact that most FOREX brokers insure their clients' deposits against a negative balance. In the end, no one owed their brokers, but traders still remember this day as the worst dream of their career. On the other hand, some traders have become permanently rich by simply taking the opposite short position before this ill-fated day. By the way, this situation with failed stops is impossible when trading and hedging positions with ...
