EUR/USD: Euro drops to November 2022 levelsThe euro continues to show a decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session on January 13, again trying to break through the 1.0200 mark and updating the November 2022 lows. The pair is rapidly approaching parity, and at the moment there are no obvious factors that can stop this movement.The US dollar is supported by expectations of the first steps of the newly elected President Donald Trump after the inauguration on January 20. Among the announced plans of the Republican administration is to increase import duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, which could accelerate inflation and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In addition, Trump's statements about the strategic importance of Greenland and the possibility of its return to US control are attracting the attention of the markets. His adviser Mike Waltz has already admitted that various ways of implementing this plan may be considered, including military measures.European investors are also analyzing December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4%, and on an annual basis — from 2.2% to 2.4%. Core inflation increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, reaching 2.7%. However, analysts believe that these figures are unlikely to affect the current policy of the ECB. Deutsche Bank experts note that despite the annual inflation rate in the service sector of about 4.0%, its growth rate and wages are slowing down. This allows us to expect to reach the target level of 2.0% by February. If the forecasts are confirmed, the ECB may consider lowering interest rates below the neutral level in 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0253, 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0400.Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050.GBP/USD: strong downward momentum of the pound is gaining momentumThe pound continues to develop the downward trend established last week, when the GBP/USD pair began to adjust from the local highs reached on January 7. The quotes are now approaching the 1.2140 level, testing it for a downward breakout. The US dollar is receiving additional support due to strong statistics on the US labor market.On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the attention of British investors will be focused on inflation data. Analysts expect the annual core consumer price index to remain at 3.5%, while the overall figure could be 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Also at this time, a report on retail prices will be published, which predicts a slight increase from 3.6% to 3.7%. On Thursday, the market will focus on the November UK GDP and industrial production data. Economists assume that both indicators will show positive dynamics.: GDP may grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.1%, and industrial production — up to 0.1% after a fall of 0.6%.Market participants are also assessing recent statements by the Deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden. She noted that current economic statistics indicate the possibility of a gradual easing of monetary policy, but the exact timing and pace of rate cuts remain uncertain. According to her, against the background of tax indexation carried out by the Labor government, the weakening of the national economy may continue, which requires a balanced approach from the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2200, 1.2230, 1.2261.Support levels: 1.2100, 1.2036, 1.2000, 1.1950.USD/CHF: NBS expects revenue of 80.0 billion francs for 2024he US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair, holding near the level of 0.91 70. At the start of the new trading week, buyer activity remains subdued, and there are no prerequisites for a noticeable corrective movement yet. The dollar is supported by expectations related to the start of the new term of Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place on January 20, as well as data on the state of the US labor market, which may affect the monetary policy of the regulator.The Swiss National Bank forecasts a record profit of 80 billion francs by the end of 2024, which will be the highest figure since the establishment of the institution. The main factors of this result are the growth of the dollar, the appreciation of precious metals and successful investments in shares of the largest technology companies. The strengthening of the US currency, which accounts for 39% of the bank's reserves, contributes to an increase in the value of assets when converted into francs. In addition, the increase in gold prices, which rose by 27% last year, increased the value of 1.04 million metric tons of this metal on the bank's balance sheet. The official report will be published on March 3, but analysts are confident that the bank's shareholders can expect to receive their first dividend payments in the last three years.Resistance levels: 0.9188, 0.9225, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9130, 0.9100, 0.9037.USD/JPY: quotes are moving away from recent peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, retreating from Friday's peak at 157.35. This trend is associated with the release of new data on Japanese macroeconomics.According to November statistics, the household spending index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, which turned out to be a less significant decline compared to the expected decrease of 0.6%. Experts emphasize that the current wage growth rates offered by employers in Japan are insufficient to cover inflationary costs. This, along with the weakening of the yen, increases the financial burden on households and reduces the likelihood of continued tightening. Representatives of the Bank of Japan have previously stressed that the future of monetary strategy will depend on current economic statistics. In case of accelerated price growth, the interest rate may change. Currently, annual inflation is 2.9%, which exceeds the target level of 2.0%. If the growth rate continues, the regulator will have to take decisive action, which may support the Japanese currency.Resistance levels: 161.93 164.07.Support levels: 156.25, ...
USD/CHF showed steady growth, breaking the levels of 0.8950 and 0.9000. However, after testing the 0.9200 mark, the pair moved to correction.The 4-hour chart (H4) shows that USD/CHF has dropped to the level of 0.9050 and retains the potential for further decline. At the same time, the pair remains well above the 200-period simple moving average (green line). If the bulls can seize the initiative, they will drag the quote to the nearest resistance, which is near the level of 0.9120.A descending channel is forming on the chart with resistance at 0.9120. The next important resistance is located near the 0.9140 mark. A close above the 0.9140 level may set the tone for further rooting of the asset towards the resistance at 0.9200. The key obstacle will be the pivot level of 0.9240.Consider the "bearish" scenario. The nearest support is at 0.9050, and the next is around 0.9020. A breakdown below these levels may lead to a decline in the pair to the level of 0.9000 and the 200-period simple moving average (green ...
USD/CHF: the pair is trading near the minimum valuesDuring the morning session, the USD/CHF pair is showing recovery after a sharp drop the day before, testing the 0.9075 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is trying to move away from the lows recorded on January 7.The increased volatility in the market is due to the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his first statements, he confirmed his intention to fulfill a number of election promises, including measures to combat illegal immigration, reduce taxes and protect the interests of national producers. Trump also noted the possibility of imposing high import duties. It was previously announced that tariffs on imports of goods would increase by 10-20%, and for products from China — up to 100%. However, analysts assume that the adjustment will only apply to strategically important goods in order to minimize the risks of inflation and maintain a dovish monetary policy.Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum in Davos has started in Switzerland, where world leaders are discussing the prospects for economic recovery, the introduction of advanced technologies and strengthening social and financial stability. Particular attention is being paid to monetary policy issues, especially in the context of a possible slowdown in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025.Resistance levels: 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9153.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8957, 0.8929.AUD/USD: Australian employment sector registers growthThe AUD/USD pair is correcting within the framework of the uptrend, trading near the level of 0.6247. The weakening of the US dollar supports the instrument, while the position of the Australian currency remains stable, despite the publication of data on the labor market.According to a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in December, the unemployment rate remained at 4.0%, and the number of unemployed decreased by 4.0 thousand, reaching 604.9 thousand. The employment rate increased by 31.0 thousand, amounting to 14.573 million, which is 2.8% higher than in the same period of 2023. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4%, but full-time employment decreased by 23.7 thousand to 10.037 million, while part-time employment increased by 80.0 thousand, reaching 4.546 million. The total number of hours worked per month increased by 0.2% or 4.0 million. Despite the high interest rates, the Australian labor market is showing a gradual recovery and stable dynamics.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6210, 0.6080.NZD/USD: December retail statistics supported the NZD rateThe NZD/USD pair is showing a correction near the 0.5654 mark, retreating from the annual low of 0.5540. The weakening of the US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand support the New Zealand currency.According to the data, in December, sales of electronic cards increased by 2.0% or 130 million New Zealand dollars. In the main retail sectors, growth was 1.8% or 103 million New Zealand dollars. The largest increases were in the categories of fuel (+3.8% or 19 million New Zealand dollars), durable goods (+3.7% or 57 million), clothing and footwear (+3.1% or 10 million), consumables (+1.4% or 36 million) and hospitality (+1.0% or 12 million). At the same time, the most noticeable decrease was recorded in the segment of motor vehicles (-1.3% or -2.4 million New Zealand dollars).Resistance levels: 0.5700, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5620, 0.5540.USD/CAD: Trump launches service to regulate duties and revenuesThe US dollar showed steady growth against the Canadian currency during the morning session on January 21, partially recovering from a sharp decline the day before. The USD/CAD pair is testing the 1.4420 mark, while during the day it managed to update the highs recorded in March 2020. Increased volatility in the market is associated with the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his speech, the politician made a number of statements about key areas of domestic and foreign policy. Although he refrained from immediately imposing large-scale import duties, Trump announced the creation of a new External Revenue Service that will work out tariff changes in detail. The administration is likely to focus on targeted increases in duties, for example, on imports of electric vehicles, which are considered critically important.At the same time, Canadian companies are cautiously optimistic, expecting an increase in demand for products due to lower borrowing costs. However, Donald Trump's plans to increase import duties are causing concern among the management of enterprises. The indicator of business prospects in economic conditions rose to -1.18 points, which is the best result in the last five quarters, although it is still below the average level. According to a December online survey by the Bank of Canada, only 15% of companies forecast a recession next year, down from 16% in the third quarter. At the same time, 40% of respondents expressed concern about the impact of the US foreign policy strategy, which highlights the high degree of uncertainty in relations between the two countries.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, ...
USD/CHF analysis on January 20, 2025On Monday, USD/CHF is working out a correction, signaling a possible continuation of growth. The asset is trading around 0.9127, against the background of low volatility of currency pairs due to the weekend in the United States.In December, the Swiss producer price index remained at 106.3 points, 0.9% lower than in December 2023, with an annual average of -1.7%. The increase in the cost of cocoa, chocolate products and coffee was offset by lower prices for pharmaceutical products, metals, semi-finished products and building materials. The slowdown in inflation in the manufacturing sector creates favorable conditions for the economy and supports the intentions of the Swiss National Bank to continue easing monetary policy.Despite the stability of the Swiss franc, recent fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate have had little effect on the dynamics of USD/CHF. Currently, the US dollar index is at 108.90, approaching the annual high of 109.90. Investors' attention is focused on the inauguration of Donald Trump, who promises immediate changes in domestic policy. In addition, data on the US real estate market for December show a sharp increase in the volume of new home construction to 1,499 million, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1,483 million, which reduces the likelihood of an early change in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.9300–0.9020. Technical indicators indicate a possible strengthening of the buy signal. The lines of the Alligator indicator are diverging, and the histogram of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator is forming correction bars in the positive zone.Trading Recommendations- long positions when the level of 0.9170 breaks up with a target of 0.9310. The stop loss should be set at 0.9120.- selling is advisable when the level of 0.9080 breaks down with a target of 0.8910. It is recommended to place the stop loss at the level of ...