EUR/USD: growth after the minimum level was set in AugustThe euro/dollar exchange rate shows a slight rise after the previous decline, as a result of which the currency pair reached new local lows recorded on August 19. At the moment, it may be possible to find the 1.1050 mark, pending the release of data on the introduction into the manufacturing sector of Eurasia, Scheduled for 11:00 (GMT+2).According to analysts' expectations, the producer price index should slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% in July, and its annual growth is projected from -3.2% to -2.5%. Despite the publication of these data, it is unlikely that this will significantly affect the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. This is especially important in the context of the preparation of the US Federal Reserve System for lowering interest rates in September. According to Reuters sources, some ECB officials believe that the eurozone economy continues to weaken, and the risk of recession remains, as many companies are cutting staff. This puts pressure on consumer spending, which requires a more aggressive rate cut by the regulator. In particular, the same as in the case of similar data on business activity in the world: expect that the commercial injection will produce the public sector from S&P, the global indicator was at the level of 51.2 punts, the indicator for Russian companies was 53.3 punts.In the end, it was data on equity activity due to investments in enterprise management (ISM): the index in the manufacturing sector increased from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but stopped in the field of visibility. This result indicates a slowdown in the industrial sector, which contributes to expectations of a policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Most experts predict that by the end of the year the rate will be reduced three times by a total of 100 basis points. Today, markets are waiting for the publication of data on production orders and the monthly report of the Federal Reserve — the so-called "Beige Book", which may influence future rate decisions. Current forecasts suggest a possible rate cut of 50 basis points with a probability of about 30%.Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930.USD/CHF: astronomical index reached its highest in two yearsDuring the Asian session, the dollar/franc pair is trying to overcome support at 0.8480, continuing to develop the downward trend that formed earlier after the US dollar declined from its peak values of August 23.On Monday, US trading floors were closed due to the celebration of Labor Day, and the attention of market participants switched to macroeconomic data from Switzerland. In July, retail sales in real terms increased from -2.6% to 2.7%, exceeding forecasts that expected values of -0.2%. The manufacturing industry recorded quarterly growth of 2.6%, and the construction industry — by 0.1%, but retail trade declined by 0.4% after two quarters of growth. Consumer spending in April-June increased by 0.3%, and government spending by 0.2%, while exports decreased by 5.0% and imports by 13.8%. The business activity index for August rose from 43.5 to 49.0 points, exceeding preliminary expectations of 44.0 points. Swiss GDP growth in the second quarter was also in the spotlight: the indicator increased from 0.5% to 0.7% in quarterly terms and from 0.6% to 1.8% annually. In addition, the consumer price index in August slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, remaining at around 0.0% in both annual and monthly terms. The decrease in inflation increased pressure on the Swiss National Bank in the context of further changes in interest rates, which were reduced by 25 basis points during the meeting on June 20.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.USD/TRY: rates in Turkey rose to 51.97%The price in US dollars/EUROS is a moderate strengthening, as a result of which you reach a maximum amount of 34.0000. The position of the US dollar remains under pressure, mainly due to the high probability of a change in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming September meeting. In the baseline scenario, a rate cut of 25 basis points is expected, but upcoming economic reports may make adjustments. If labor market indicators weaken, the probability of a more significant rate cut — by 50 basis points — will increase. Analysts predict an increase in the number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in August from 114.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage may increase from 3.6% to 3.7% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% monthly. The unemployment rate is also expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. In the evening at 20:00 (Moscow time+2), market participants will follow the publication of the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a monthly report on the state of the economy that covers 12 federal districts and contains data on industry, agriculture, consumer spending, the real estate market and other key sectors. The administration, just in case, turns to the administration in the private sector.Meanwhile, the pressure on the Turkish lira remains in the face of the difficult economic situation in the country. Turkey's GDP grew by only 2.5% in the second quarter, which was the worst indicator since 2020. Consumer spending slowed to 1.6% after 7.0% in the previous period, while government spending was about 0.7%. Inflation in Turkey decreased significantly in August: from 61.78% to 51.97% on an annual basis, and from 3.23% to 2.47% on a monthly basis. The Turkish authorities expect the consumer price index to decrease to 40% by the end of the year. In response to the rapid fall of the lira, the Central Bank of Turkey has taken a number of measures to strengthen liquidity and increase deposits in the national currency. Among them: increasing growth targets for banks to increase the share of deposits in lira, including corporate accounts with currency protection in the calculation of these indicators, as well as increasing mandatory reserves in lira on blocked accounts by 5.0%.Resistance levels: 34.0800, 34.2325, 34.3000, 34.4091.Support levels: 34.0000, 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722.GBP/CAD: Canadian GDP data supported the growth of the national currencyThe GBP/CAD pair is in the currency range at 1.7670 at the level of September 4. Over the past day, the pair has decreased by 0.40% compared to the previous session, which is due to the general weakness of the pound against the background of mixed economic data from the UK and the influence of external factors on the Canadian dollar. Investors are waiting for comments from the Bank of England (BoE), which may be an addition to the policy towards Russia.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. The following data on the business activity index (PMI) for 2018 indicate a decrease in the indicator in the service sector to 47.9%, which indicates a focus on a key topic for acoustics. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter showed growth of only 0.2%, which is lower than forecasts of 0.3%, and reinforces expectations that the Bank of England may begin to reduce interest rates in the coming months. We expect that investments in the UK will increase to 6.8% per year due to investments in September, which may weaken the impact on you in the context of the Far East.In Canada, the situation also remains influenced by macroeconomic factors. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, which was higher than the expected 1.8%. However, despite the positive data, the Canadian dollar faced pressure due to falling oil prices. In particular, oil prices fell to $82.25 per barrel, due to an understanding of demand from construction China and weak business partners in Russia. In addition, the Bank of Canada is expected to decide to lower interest rates at the next meeting if the slowdown in economic growth continues.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, ...
USD/CHF is showing a moderate rise, recovering from last week's decline during which the December lows were updated. The pair is currently testing the 0.8460 level for the possibility of an upward breakout, which is largely facilitated by John Murphy's technical analysis factors supporting the dollar's growth.Investors continue to analyze the August data on the American labor market, which came out worse than expected. The number of jobs outside agriculture amounted to 142 thousand, with a forecast of 160 thousand. Additionally, the downward revision of the July data — from 114 thousand to 89 thousand — caused significant volatility in the Friday session. At the same time, the average hourly wage increased from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 3.6% to 3.8% on an annual basis. Against the background of these data, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September remained at the same level: the probability of an adjustment by 50 basis points is estimated at about 35%.In Switzerland, as predicted, the unemployment rate remained at 2.5% in August. Experts expect that the Swiss National Bank, given the continued weakening of inflation, will also lower interest rates at its meeting on September 26. The August consumer price index in Switzerland slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, which is slightly better than forecasts of 1.2%.The indicators show ambiguous signals on the daily chart. The Bollinger bands begin to turn sideways, the MACD shows a weak buy signal, and the Stochastic stopped falling and leveled off near the 20 mark.We will consider buying after an upward breakout of the 0.8500 level. The nearest target is 0.8600. We will set the stop loss at 0.8450.If the price bounces off the 0.8500 resistance and breaks down the 0.8450 level, this will be a signal to start selling with a target of 0.8365. We will place the stop loss at the level of ...
EUR/GBP: weak German GDP data increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is at the level of 0.8575 and shows sideways dynamics as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.12% less than the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains tense against the background of recent data on German GDP, which in the second quarter of 2024 showed a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and stagnation on an annual basis. These data reinforce concerns about a possible recession in Europe's largest economy. Also, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) fell to 43.7 points in August, which further worsens forecasts for the euro. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), the final estimate of eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be published: an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms and a decrease of 0.4% on an annual basis is projected. Additionally, traders' attention will be focused on data on the consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to reach 5.2% year-on-year.In the UK, the economic situation is also worrying. The Bank of England has stopped the cycle of raising interest rates, fearing negative consequences for economic growth, predicting an increase in GDP in the third quarter of only 0.1%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, although wage growth has slowed. The publication of the manufacturing activity index (PMI) for August showed a decrease to 43.0 points, indicating further problems in the industrial sector. Tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on the index of business activity in the service sector for August will be released, which may affect market sentiment.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8670.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8490.USD/CHF: Franc under pressure due to weak export demandThe USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.8490 against the background of weak dynamics of the US dollar. At the trading session on September 2, the pair shows a slight decrease, which is 0.04% lower than the previous session.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. On Friday, September 6, data on the unemployment rate are expected, which may show a decrease from 3.6% to 3.5%, as well as indicators of job growth outside agriculture, projected at 170 thousand. These data may affect market expectations regarding the Fed's further monetary policy, which is likely to continue the cycle of rate hikes to control inflation, given the weak dynamics of the economy and the labor market.In Switzerland, the situation remains stable, but the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, pointed to the pressure exerted on the country's economy by a strong franc and weak demand for exports, especially to the EU. The economic forecast indicates a decrease in the leading KOF index from 101.0 to 100.6 points, which also puts pressure on the national currency. In the coming weeks, discussions may follow on a possible easing of monetary policy to support the economy, which will have an impact on the dynamics of the franc.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/JPY: Australian GDP growth supported the strengthening of the pairThe AUD/JPY pair is trading at 94.60 and shows an upward trend as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.23% higher compared to the previous session.In Australia, the economic situation remains under pressure amid a slowdown in retail sales growth, which showed zero growth in July, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. These data reinforce expectations of a possible easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, according to its head Michelle Bullock, maintains a cautious approach to further rate cuts, despite projected inflation of 3.2% at the end of the year. Tomorrow, September 3, at 02:30 (GMT+2), data on Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter will be published, growth of 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis is expected, which may support the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation remains stable, but industrial production data for July showed a decrease of 0.8% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. The unemployment rate in the country remains at 2.6%, and the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.3% in annual terms. Tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2), statistics on changes in the wage level in Japan will be published, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year is expected. The market will also be influenced by the upcoming data on the index of business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 52.2 points.Resistance levels: 95.00, 95.50.Support levels: 94.00, 93.50.Gold market analysisAs of September 2, 2024, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading at about $2,515 per ounce, showing a moderate increase of 0.45% compared to the previous trading session. Gold continues to move in an uptrend, supported by demand for safe assets in the face of global economic uncertainty and a weakening US dollar.The economic situation in the United States remains a key factor influencing the dynamics of gold. Recent employment data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in August 2024, below the forecast of 4.3%. At the same time, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in July, which somewhat eased concerns about inflationary pressures. These data contributed to the strengthening of the dollar, which has a restraining effect on the growth of gold prices.The situation in the international arena also remains tense. The slowdown in economic growth in China and the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East are supporting the demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, Chinese industrial production data for August showed a slowdown in growth to 3.9% year-on-year, below the expected 4.2%, reinforcing investors' concerns about the prospects for global economic recovery.Resistance levels: 2510.00, 2525.00, 2540.00, 2555.00.Support levels: 2500.00, 2483.64, 2470.00, ...
AUD/USD: pair is trying to gain a foothold above 0.6800The AUD/USD pair shows an ambiguous movement, hovering around the critical resistance level of 0.6800. The market refrains from active actions in anticipation of new peaks, starting the year with attempts to consolidate at record levels.The publication of today's data on the Australian economy did not bring additional support to the Australian dollar. The slowdown in retail sales growth in July to 0% against the expected 0.3% may affect future decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Despite the lack of intentions to reduce the cost of loans in the near future, as stated by the head of the bank Michelle Bullock, the RBA anticipates that inflation will remain above the target range of 2.0-3.0% until the end of 2025, which implies a possible continuation of a high interest rate.The dynamics of lending in the private sector in July showed minor changes, confirming the stability of the previous months. American statistics affecting the Federal Reserve System, including the expected acceleration of the core index of personal consumption expenditures in July from 2.6% to 2.7%, will also be in the focus of investors' attention. It is expected that today's data on personal income and expenses will confirm this trend, which may become a catalyst for a change in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700.USD/CHF: the Central Bank of Switzerland has identified the problems of the manufacturing sectorDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF pair shows stable movement, having fixed near the level of 0.8480. There is a slight increase against the background of data from the United States, preparing for the end of the week.Traders are focused on the index of leading economic indicators from KOF, the projected decrease of which from 101.0 to 100.6 indicates economic difficulties. Thomas Jordan, the soon-to-retire head of the Swiss National Bank, highlighted challenges for the Swiss industry, including the strengthening of the franc and declining demand from the EU, especially from Germany. He reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining price stability with inflation between 0.0% and 2.0%, noting the importance of this for economic recovery. Jordan also stressed that the main policy instrument will be the interest rate, but did not rule out the possibility of currency interventions. Market participants estimate the probability of monetary policy easing at the next meeting on September 26 at 70% for a decrease of 25 basis points and 30% for a more aggressive change of 50 basis points.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.NZD/USD: July showed growth in the New Zealand construction industryThe NZD/USD trading instrument is experiencing a correction in light of the weak activity of the US dollar and positive New Zealand statistics at the level of 0.6262.In July, there was an increase in the construction of new homes in New Zealand: the total number of new projects amounted to 33,921 thousand per year, which is 22.0% lower than last year. The construction of 18,503 thousand multi-apartment buildings and 15,418 thousand detached houses was approved, which is 28.0% and 14.0% less than the previous data, respectively. Despite the overall reduction, 3,352 thousand more construction projects were approved in July, which indicates a possible turn in the positive direction.The US dollar showed a slight strengthening, reaching the level of 101.20 USDX, which was supported by data on US GDP, which showed growth of 3.0% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations (2.8%). There was also a slight decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits to 231.0 thousand from the previous 233.0 thousand, although the total number of applications increased to 1.868 million.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6230, 0.6080.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices continue to adjust within the framework of a weak downtrend, holding below the key level of $ 79.00 per barrel. The hydrocarbon market remains unstable, and quotations show frequent fluctuations against the background of mixed fundamental factors affecting the dynamics of the asset.Recent news related to the visit of OPEC Secretary General Haysam al-Gais to Iraq and Kazakhstan showed that these countries plan to compensate for the under-fulfilled volumes of oil production cuts that were not fulfilled under the OPEC+ deal from January to July 2024. Iraq intends to replace the missing 1.44 million barrels per day by September 2025, and Kazakhstan — 0.699 million barrels per day. These measures are aimed at maintaining the flexibility of energy price regulation and can contribute to the stabilization of global markets.Additionally, data on oil reserves in the United States were released this week. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), inventories decreased by 3,400 million barrels after the previous small increase of 0.347 million barrels. At the same time, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy recorded a decrease of 0.846 million barrels, which is in line with market expectations. The total decline in U.S. oil reserves since mid-summer has exceeded 31.0 million barrels, and this trend has been going on for more than nine weeks in a row, which may lead to complications in the recovery of reserves in the future.Support levels: 77.20, 73.30.Resistance levels: 80.00, ...