Trading signals and online forecasts USD/CHF

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, ...

On Monday, USD/CHF is correcting around 0.8835 after updating the December 6 low last week. Market participants expect new drivers to appear for the further movement of quotations.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the March data on business activity in the Eurozone. The index in the service sector is expected to grow from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. In Germany, the indicators may also improve: in the service sector — from 51.1 to 51.4 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 46.5 to 47.7 points.At 15:45 (GMT+2), similar data for the United States will be published: the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is likely to decrease from 52.7 to 51.9 points, and in the service sector it will increase from 51.0 to 51.2 points.The economic expectations index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) for March will be released on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2). Earlier, the index value fell from 17.7 to 3.4 points, which is significantly worse than expected. The quarterly report of the National Bank of Switzerland (NBSH) will be published at 14:00 (GMT+2).The US Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 4.5%, but revised its forecasts: for the current year, the median forecast was lowered from 4.4% to 3.9%, for 2026 from 3.9% to 3.4%, and for 2027 from 3.4% to 3.1%. Long-term expectations remained at 3.0%.The Swiss National Bank lowered the rate to 0.25%, which was the fifth decline in a row. The decision was made against the background of a slowdown in inflation to 0.3% in annual terms in February, the lowest level in the last four years.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe Daily (d1) chart shows that the Bollinger Band indicator is turning horizontally, while the MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- We will consider purchases after the breakout of the 0.8863 level. The target is 0.8929. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.8827.- Sales will be possible after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.8800 with a target of 0.8755. In this case, we will place the stop loss at 0.8827.Thus, the USD/CHF pair remains influenced by both macroeconomic data and central bank decisions. The current correction creates opportunities for trading both up and down, depending on the breakdown of key ...

EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, ...

USD/CHF amalysis on March 19, 2025After an active decline over the previous two days, when USD/CHF updated the lows on March 10, the pair showed a slight correction on Wednesday. Quotes are testing the 0.8770 level for a downward breakout. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.Experts are almost certain that the Fed will keep its key interest rate at 4.5%. However, the market's attention will be focused on clarifying the long-term prospects for monetary policy. Donald Trump's protectionism, with a sharp increase in import duties, puts pressure on the stability of the dollar.The US macroeconomic data is also worrisome. In February, industrial production grew by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%. The level of production capacity utilization increased to 78.2% against expectations of 77.8%. The volume of construction started increased sharply from -11.5% to 11.2%, reaching 1,501 million, which was also higher than the forecast of 1.38 million.February data on Switzerland's foreign trade will be published on Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2). Previously, exports amounted to 24.45 billion francs and imports to 18.33 billion francs, resulting in a trade surplus of 6.12 billion francs.A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2). According to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 economists expect an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it will remain until at least 2026. This decision is supported by the low inflation rate, which reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February. However, the weakness of the Swiss franc may create risks of rising prices in the near term.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart (D1), the Bollinger Band indicator indicates a mixed trading pattern in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, forming a weak sell signal. Stochastic is showing a more confident decline, being near the oversold zoneTrading recommendations- We will consider selling after the breakdown down to the level of 0.8758 with a target of 0.8669. It is recommended to set a stop loss of 0.8800.- Purchases are possible after a rebound from the 0.8758 level and an upward breakdown of 0.8800. The target is 0.8900. The stop loss is ...