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Trading signals and online forecasts USD/CHF

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Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024 GBP/USD: Bank of England is expected to lower the rate on June 20In the context of the weakening of the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at the level of 1.2788.However, the British pound is also losing ground amid disappointing economic data: in May, the indicator of business activity in the UK services sector fell to 52.9 points from the previous 55.0, and in construction rose to 54.7 points from 53.0. The composite index decreased to 53.0 points from 54.1, remaining in the "green" zone. The pound is also under pressure from the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the Bank of England, especially given that the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have already made similar rate cuts of 25 basis points.As for the US dollar, its quotes continue to fall, reaching the level of 103.90 USDX in the morning. This reflects investors' uncertainty after the latest data on the slowdown in the US labor market, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve System in shaping monetary policy. For example, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 229.0 thousand from 221.0 thousand last week, approaching an annual maximum, while labor costs in the first quarter amounted to 4.0%, which was lower than expectations of 4.7%. In such circumstances, the prospects for a stronger dollar look unlikely, and the current trend may continue.Resistance levels: 1.2810, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2753, 1.2620.USD/CHF: unemployment rate in Switzerland is gradually decreasingThe USD/CHF currency pair continues to move in a corrective downtrend, settling at 0.8897 due to the weakening of the US dollar and the slowdown in the strengthening of the Swiss franc after the latest economic reports.According to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the unemployment rate in May remained at 2.3%, unchanged from previous figures. There were 105,465 thousand unemployed people in the registration cards of employment centers, which is 1,492 thousand less than in April and 17,389 thousand more than in the same period last year. In May, 176,422 thousand registered job seekers were registered, which is 1,148 thousand less than in April, but 22,954 thousand more than a year ago. These data indicate a stabilization and some improvement in the labor market situation in Switzerland.Support levels: 0.8882, 0.8743.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.9023.USD/CAD: focus is on the May report on employment in the United StatesThe USD/CAD currency pair shows ambiguous trading movements, hovering around the 1.3670 level, with an overall low level of market activity in anticipation of new economic incentives.Today, the US labor market report for May is due to be published, which may have a significant impact on the further actions of the Federal Reserve System regarding monetary policy in 2024. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agriculture will increase from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage, which affects the inflation rate, is expected to be 0.3% compared with the previous value of 0.2%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.9%. Investors' attention is focused on business activity data in May: the index in the services sector rose from 51.3 to 54.8 points, and the composite index — from 51.3 to 54.5 points. These indicators indicate the recovery of the national economy, despite the strict policy of the regulator, which supports high inflation risks and the likelihood of maintaining the key interest rate at a high level during the year.Resistance levels: 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550.AUD/USD: recovery of the Australian dollar by the end of the weekThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a corrective movement, trying to overcome the 0.6675 level up: the market remains active, despite the preliminary expectation of the May report on the American labor market. Forecasts suggest an increase in the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage and unemployment rate are likely to remain at 3.9%.Meanwhile, economic indicators from China are once again supporting the Australian dollar, indicating a faster recovery of the Chinese economy. Thus, exports to China increased by 7.6% in May after 1.5% in the previous month, while imports decreased from 8.4% to 1.8%, with initial estimates of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade surplus from $72.35 billion to $82.62 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $73.0 billion.In Australia, on the contrary, May trade showed a decrease: exports fell by 2.5% after a 0.6% decline a month earlier, and imports decreased by 7.2% after an increase of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade balance from 4.84 billion Australian dollars to 6.55 billion. Australian Finance Minister Jim Chalmers attributed the country's low GDP growth to high interest rates, persistent inflation and global uncertainty, but noted that the economy had managed to avoid recession, unlike many OECD countries.Resistance levels: 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6667, 0.6646, 0.6622, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Thursday, June 6, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Thursday, June 6, 2024 EUR/USD: asset correction pending ECB decisionThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to follow the corrective trend, holding at 1.0888, despite the temporary weakening of the US dollar and balanced economic indicators from the European Union.In May, the indicator of business activity in the Spanish service sector increased from 56.2 to 56.9 points. In Italy, the index fell slightly from 54.3 to 54.2 points, in France it decreased from 51.3 to 49.3 points, while in Germany it increased from 53.2 to 54.2 points. The overall index for the region was 53.2 points, slightly lower than the previous value of 53.3 points, which demonstrates the stability of a key sector of the EU economy against the background of strict monetary policy and a slowdown in the labor market. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled today at 14:15 GMT+2, at which it is expected that the regulator may take steps towards a softer monetary policy. Analysts foresee a possible rate cut of 25 basis points in response to deteriorating economic conditions tending to recession in some areas. During a subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde may also outline the potential for additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 1.0934, 1.1041.Support levels: 1.0815, 1.0735.USD/CHF: the risks associated with the liquidation of majority banks are outlinedDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a moderate decline, testing the level of 0.8910 after the previous growth provoked by the published positive economic statistics from the United States.To date, traders are analyzing unemployment data in Switzerland, where the seasonally adjusted rate increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while excluding these fluctuations it remained at 2.3%. Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter expressed the view that international organizations should carefully consider the potential risks associated with the liquidation of large banks. She cited the example of Credit Suisse Group AG, which on May 31 announced the completion of the merger process with UBS AG, ending its 168-year history. The Minister stressed that it is important that large banking institutions provide adequate financial support to their branches so that the capital of foreign subsidiaries is sufficient and can be used without risk to the financial well-being of the Swiss parent company during crisis periods.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8964, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8839, 0.8800.USD/TRY: Turkish inflation returned to peaks in November 2022The USD/TRY currency pair demonstrates changeable trading activity, stabilizing around the level of 32.2150. The market is in a state of expectation, as bidders are looking for new factors that can influence the policy of the US Federal Reserve on borrowing rates.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to domestic economic problems. In May, the annual inflation index in Turkey reached the highest values in the last year and a half, reaching 75.45%. The most significant price increase over the year was recorded in the education sector (+104.8%), while in the clothing and footwear segment there was the least growth (+50.85%). Prices for residential real estate increased by 93.21%, for alcohol and tobacco — by 86.48%, and in the category of "hotels, cafes and restaurants" — by 92.94%. According to Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek, inflation was expected to peak in May. This month, the authorities expect a correction in inflation, which is facilitated by an increase in business activity due to the tourist season. The annual inflation rate is expected to decrease to less than 50.0% by the end of the third quarter, and in subsequent years it will fall to 33.2% and 21.3%, respectively.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/CAD: interest rate in Canada has been reduced to 4.75%The USD/CAD currency pair continues to fluctuate between 1.3725–1.2625, even despite the recent decision of the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates.The regulator lowered the key rate by 0.25 points to 4.75%, which was the first such decrease in the last four years and in line with analysts' forecasts. According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, the country's economy is on track to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%, based on a number of macroeconomic data. Macklem also pointed out that with the continued slowdown in inflation, additional reductions in the cost of loans may follow. Nevertheless, despite monetary measures, USD/CAD quotes reached the upper limit of the specified range, but could not overcome it due to subsequent unfavorable data from the United States. In particular, in May, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) fell to 47.1 points, falling below expectations of 47.2 points, and the price index amounted to 58.1 points against the predicted 59.0. The indicator from S&P Global remained at 54.8 points, in line with expectations. In addition, data from ADP showed a decrease in private sector employment from 188.0 thousand to 152.0 thousand, which also turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates of 173.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3725, 1.3775, 1.3830.Support levels: 1.3625, 1.3595, ...
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Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, June 6, 2024
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, June 6, 2024 In the Asian session on Thursday, USD/CHF is moderately declining, testing the level of 0.8910, although the pair showed growth on the eve caused by the release of positive American macroeconomic reports.In May, the index of business activity in the US services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose from 49.4 to 53.8 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.8 points. The S&P Global services sector indicator remained at 54.8 points, as expected. However, employment in the private sector, according to the company Automatic Data Processing (ADP), decreased from 188.0 thousand to 152.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the forecast of 173.0 thousand. Now investors are waiting for Friday's labor market report (Non-farm Payrolls), which may clarify the prospects for a reduction in interest rates by the Fed this year. The main scenario assumes one or two acts of monetary expansion by 25 basis points each, and the first of them, with a probability of about 60%, may take place as early as September.Today, the data on unemployment in Switzerland are of interest to traders. The indicator, seasonally adjusted, increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while excluding it, it remained at 2.3%. Meanwhile, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter stressed the importance of careful analysis of potential risks in the liquidation of large banks, citing the example of the situation with Credit Suisse Group AG, which completed its merger with UBS AG on May 31, finally ending its 168-year existence. She noted that large banks should provide sufficient financial support to their own branches so that the share capital of subsidiaries can be realized without prejudice to the parent companies in the event of a crisis.USD/CHF Technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is steadily decreasing, as is the MACD, which retains a sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up and exit the oversold zoneShort positions can be opened after breaking down the support level of 0.8900 with the nearest target at 0.8839. We place the stop loss at 0.8935.To enter purchases, you should wait for a rebound from the 0.8900 level followed by an upward breakout of the 0.8935 level. For buyers, the target is at the key resistance of 0.9000. We will set the stop loss to ...
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USD/CHF: Fed may return to raising rates
USD/CHF, currency, USD/CHF: Fed may return to raising rates USD/CHF analysis on May 29, 2024USD/CHF continues the weak downward movement that began last week, when the asset retreated from local highs for May 2. The pair is currently testing the 0.9125 support for a downside breakout. At the same time, trading activity in the market remains low, as traders are waiting for new drivers to appear.Today, the US will publish data on the retail sales index from Redbook for the week ended May 24, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve of Richmond, which may rise from -7.0 to -2.0 p. In addition, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the monthly economic review from the US Federal Reserve, known as The Beige Book. On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), GDP data for the first quarter is expected, which, according to forecasts, will show a decrease in the annual rate from 1.6% to 1.3%, which may affect the course of the Fed's monetary policy. On Friday, investors' attention will be focused on the April statistics on the price index of personal consumption expenditures, where the base indicator is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis. Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the Fed should wait for more significant progress in reducing inflation before starting a cycle of monetary expansion. He also noted that if inflation accelerates, the Fed may return to tougher rhetoric.Today at 10:00 (GMT+2) in Switzerland, the May statistics on the index of economic expectations from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The previous indicator was revised from 11.5 to 17.6 points. On Thursday, investors will follow the speech of the head of the Swiss National Bank and GDP data for the first quarter, which are projected to remain at the same level (0.3% quarterly and 0.6% annual), which may support the Swiss franc.The main forex indicators on the daily chart do not give unambiguous signals. Bollinger bands are trying to turn into a horizontal plane. The MACD is declining, signaling sales. Stochastic, having bounced off the maximum values, is steadily moving down.Long positions can be opened after a confident breakout of the 0.9130 level. The nearest target is 0.9175. We will set the stop loss at 0.9100.A rebound from the 0.9130 level and a subsequent breakdown of the 0.9100 mark down may be a signal to form short positions with a target of 0.9037. We place the stop loss at ...
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