AUD/USD: the price tends to the upper limit of the "expanding pattern"Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an upward correction, trading at 0.6752, while the Australian dollar remains stable.In May, there was a decrease in the volume of loans for the purchase of housing in Australia by 1.7%, reaching 28.8 billion Australian dollars, which follows an increase of 4.8% in April and turned out to be 18.0% higher than a year earlier. Loans for the purchase of residential real estate decreased by 2.0% month-on-month to 18.1 billion, and by 12.2% year-on-year. Housing intended for investment fell in value by 1.3% to 10.7 billion Australian dollars, which is 29.5% higher than last year. Changes in the rates on fixed loans for individuals amounted to a decrease from 0.9% to -0.7%, and on loans for transport — up to 0.8%. Although the pace of slowdown is not in line with analysts' expectations, interest rates remain high.Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6670.USD/CAD: consolidation of the exchange rate after a short period of growthDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends, remaining at around 1.3640 after a recent moderate increase, which allowed the US currency to move away from its minimum values for May 20 against the background of recent macroeconomic data.In June, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the United States decreased from 218.0 thousand (revised data from 272.0 thousand) to 206.0 thousand, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts at the level of 190.0 thousand. The average hourly earnings were adjusted from 4.1% to 3.9% year-on-year, and from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, which helps to reduce inflationary pressure. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, contrary to market expectations. Meanwhile, investors' attention is focused on political events, including the debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and his opponent Donald Trump, as well as parliamentary elections in Europe, especially in France and the United Kingdom.In Canada, the employment indicator for June decreased by 1.4 thousand, which is a deviation from the previous month, when an increase of 26.7 thousand was recorded, despite expectations of maintaining positive dynamics at the level of 22.5 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased from 5.2% to 5.6%, putting pressure on inflation risk assessments. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.4%, exceeding forecasts at 6.3%, while the Ivey business activity index improved from 52.0 to 62.5 points, ahead of analysts' expectations of 53.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: the correction of the US dollar continues on the background of new data from JapanThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing a moderate decline, continuing the corrective trend that began last week after moving away from peak values around 162.00. Now the exchange rate is checking the level of 160.50 for a possible further decline, while traders evaluate fresh economic data from Japan and the latest employment report in the United States, released on Friday.Meanwhile, data on wage dynamics were published in Japan today: in May, this figure increased from 1.6% to 1.9%, falling short of the expected 2.1%. Lending volumes in the banking sector in June also showed an increase from 2.9% to 3.2%, exceeding forecasts at 3.1%. The index of assessment of the current situation according to Eco Watchers improved from 45.7 to 47.0 points in June, and expectations for the future increased from 46.3 to 47.9 points. At the same time, the consumer spending index in May decreased by 0.3% monthly, contrary to the forecast of 0.5% growth, and decreased by 1.8% per annum, which is significantly lower than the initial estimate of 0.2%. Analysts expect these indicators to recover in the near future, as companies will gradually increase salaries. In general, consumer activity in Japan remains at a low level, supporting the likelihood of maintaining the Bank of Japan's soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 160.80, 161.30, 162.00, 162.50.Support levels: 160.25, 159.92, 159.30, 159.00.Oil market analysisPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are observed in a weak decreasing trend at 86.00, slowing down after last week's rise.According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories changed from 0.914 million barrels to -9.163 million barrels, and data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) shows a change from 3.591 million barrels to -12.157 million barrels, which helped support prices last week. This Monday's negative trends were formed against the background of the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a supporter of expanding the geography of oil supplies, to the post of president of Iran. Currently, Iran exports hydrocarbons to 17 regions of the world, while in recent years its production volume has increased from 2.2 million barrels per day to 3.57 million barrels, which allowed the country to take fourth place in OPEC.Resistance levels: 86.60, 90.00.Support levels: 85.50, ...
EUR/USD: the results of the ECB monetary meeting will be announced todayIn the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate stabilized at 1.0928, while investors refrain from active trading, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for 14:15 GMT+2.Analysts assume that the ECB will continue its policy of lowering interest rates, confirming this with a possible adjustment in September, followed by a regular reduction in rates every quarter. ECB President Christine Lagarde regularly focuses on the importance of taking into account the macroeconomic situation in making key decisions. So, in June, there was an upward revision of inflation expectations: it is assumed that in 2024 inflation will be 2.5%, and in 2025 it will be 2.2%, with basic indicators of 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. In the latest report for June, inflation remained at 0.2% on a monthly basis and decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% on an annual basis. Core inflation registered 0.4% monthly growth, which is higher than the forecast of 0.3%, and the level of 2.9% in annual terms. Despite the growing price pressures in the services sector, ECB representatives may increase caution in adjusting monetary policy. Surveys indicate a slowdown in wage growth to less than 4% by the end of the year, which, according to the regulator, will help achieve the inflation target of 2% in the first half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0945, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0803, 1.0742, 1.0645.USD/CAD: inflation data did not strengthen the position of the Canadian dollarDuring the current trading session, the USD/CAD pair demonstrates a downward correction, reaching the level of 1.3678 against the background of a noticeable weakening of the US dollar.Not being supported by inflation data, the Canadian currency showed moderate reactive growth. Information on the decline in the consumer price index in Canada turned out to be better than expected, but did not reach a level capable of influencing monetary policy. In June, the index decreased by 0.1% monthly and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum. The basic indicator, excluding food and energy, increased slightly from 1.8% to 1.9% in monthly and annual terms. This dynamics led to an overall decrease in the inflation index from 2.4% to 2.3%, without becoming a key factor for changing the key rate of the Bank of Canada, which continues to carefully analyze the situation in the labor and real estate markets.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3790.Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3590.Silver market analysisThe price of silver is steadily rising, reaching the 30.40 mark, against the background of moderate growth in the market.Silver retains some backwardness from gold, which continues to update highs, due to relatively weak demand on industrial exchanges. In conditions of political instability, when investors have limited resources of available funds, preference is given to more reliable assets. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows that the current trading volume of silver futures is 72.3 thousand lots, whereas in June this figure was in the range of 130.0–140.0 thousand lots. A recent report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also reflects a slowdown in dynamics: over the week, the volume of purchases from manufacturers increased by only 0.133 thousand, and sales increased by 3.125 thousand, indicating potentially low volatility of silver in the near future.Resistance levels: 30.76, 32.14.Support levels: 30.00, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI crude oil is held at $81.86 per barrel, influenced by China's economic statistics.China's GDP increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with growth of 5.3% in the previous quarter and a projected 5.1%. The decline in retail sales in June from 3.7% to 2.0% — below the expected 3.3% — raises concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's second largest economy and falling demand for oil from the leading importer. According to the data, imports of crude oil in China decreased both monthly and annually, which confirms the assumption that demand has reached a peak amid the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in the country. The news that the US and the EU are imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is heightening trade tensions.Nevertheless, statistics on oil reserves provide some support for prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a decrease in reserves from 1.923 million barrels to 4.440 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted a decrease in reserves by 4.870 million barrels from the previous 3.443 million barrels, exceeding the forecast reduction of 0.900 million barrels.Support levels: 80.00, 76.80.Resistance levels: 82.40, ...
AUD/USD: the increase in the price range opens the way to new peaks for the bullsThe AUD/USD pair is showing noticeable growth, updating its maximum values since the beginning of the year as part of its upward trajectory on short- and ultra-short-term horizons: the currency pair is testing the 0.6760 level for possible overcoming, using the weakness of the US dollar, which is under pressure due to increasing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.The Australian dollar is influenced today by fresh macroeconomic statistics: the index of inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute for July decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, and the total number of construction permits issued in May jumped from 1.9% to 5.5%, including an increase in permits for the construction of new homes from -3.0% to 2.1%. Despite these positive indicators, experts emphasize that the construction sector is still under the onslaught of high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The full recovery of this sector is expected only after the transition to a more lenient monetary policy, which may not happen this year due to the incessant growth in consumer prices.Resistance levels: 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6679.USD/JPY: currency stabilizes at historical peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, again checking the level of 161.70. The previous time, the currency instrument made attempts to take new heights, but the available incentives were not enough for rapid growth.Today's statistics from Japan showed that orders for engineering products increased by 10.8% year-on-year in May, significantly exceeding expectations of 7.2% and the previous increase of 0.7%. However, the monthly indicator decreased by 3.2%, which is worse than the previous value of -2.9% and initial estimates of 0.8%. Prices for corporate goods in June fell to 0.2% compared to a month earlier, against a forecast of 0.4%, but increased from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations. Against the background of a strong decline in the yen and rising prices for imported raw materials, investors' confidence in the possible imminent tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is strengthening. Sources of the Reuters news agency report that in the near future the regulator may adjust the forecasts of the country's economic growth, while confirming expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 162.00, 162.50, 163.00, 163.50.Support levels: 161.30, 160.80, 160.25, 159.92.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the silver exchange rate (XAG/USD) has been steadily rising, focusing on an uptrend after mixed results at the beginning of the week and approaching the 31.00 mark in anticipation of new incentives for further movement.Important data on inflation in the United States is expected to be published today at 14:30 GMT+2, which may have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Analysts assume that the consumer price index in June will decrease to 3.1% per annum from the previous 3.3% and show a slight increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis after stabilization in May. Markets continue to expect one or two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one likely to be announced as early as September. In his recent speech to the Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant changes in the labor market, indicating its slowdown, and stressed the need to take into account the risks of changes in the cost of borrowing, focusing not only on inflation, but also on the general trends of the slowdown in the US economy. At the end of the week, investors' attention will focus on data on industrial inflation, where, according to forecasts, the index will increase from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and rise from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 31.15, 31.49, 32.00, 32.50.Support levels: 30.75, 30.50, 30.15, 29.84.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices are showing moderate growth, continuing to rise after the publication of a report on a decrease in oil reserves in the United States, with the current trading level around $85.00 per barrel.According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of reserves decreased by 1,923 million barrels after a previous decrease of 9.163 million barrels. A similar trend was shown by the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a decrease of 3.443 million barrels after a decrease of 12.157 million barrels in the previous period, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The total reduction in reserves over the past two weeks has exceeded 15 million barrels, which pushes for the possibility of a new stage in the release of oil from US strategic reserves, as previously mentioned in the presidential administration.Resistance levels: 86.00, 89.90.Support levels: 84.00, ...
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar declines after May recordsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop, rolling back after yesterday's surge, when new local highs were reached since May 20, despite strengthening based on positive May data on the Australian labor market.The employment rate in Australia increased by 39.7 thousand, continuing to grow after adding 37.4 thousand in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 30.0 thousand Full-time employment increased by 41.7 thousand, despite the previous decrease of 7.6 thousand, while part-time employment decreased by 2.1 thousand, after an increase of 45.0 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. These impressive figures confirm the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) ability to ease monetary policy further.Meanwhile, the US dollar is stabilizing after the average trading session: The US Federal Reserve, following its last meeting, left the key rate at 5.50%, but left the door open for a rate cut in 2024. New economic forecasts from the Fed show a potential one and a half rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of this year, although market expectations hint at two such cuts. The latest US inflation data show a reduction in risks, which led to increased confidence among analysts in the possibility of the first rate cut in September. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy resources, showed a slowdown to 3.4% per annum and to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6667, 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725.Support levels: 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600, 0.6578.NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System confirmed the rate of 5.5% per annumDuring the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair is observing a moderate decline, reaching the level of 0.6166, after having recorded highs since January 15 a day earlier. This happened against the background of data on consumer inflation in the United States and the results of the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.At the last Fed meeting, the rate was kept at 5.5%. However, investors were particularly interested in the revised forecasts for the rate movement, which now show a decrease to 5.13% by the end of 2024, while previous estimates suggested a decrease to 4.60%. By the end of next year, it is expected to decrease to 4.13%, which is higher than the previously expected 3.90%. Current interest rate futures predict an even deeper decline of 46 basis points before the end of the year. At the same time, the May consumer price index showed a decrease from 3.4% to 3.3% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0% on a monthly basis, while the base index decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, which is lower than forecasts of 3.5%.Weak national macroeconomic statistics also have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar: the volume of retail sales carried out using electronic cards fell by 1.6% year-on-year in May after a decrease of 3.8% earlier, and decreased from -0.4% to -1.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6175, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6082.Cryptocurrency market overviewThe quotes of the SOL/USD pair continue to weaken, aiming for a support level around 145.00, which has developed since last summer.The opinions of cryptocurrency market analysts differ: some experts suggest that the SEC's positive decision on applications for the creation of spot Ethereum ETFs may contribute to the launch of a similar fund based on Solana, which will support the growth of the value of SOL/USD. At the same time, other experts point to judicial decisions regarding the Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, where the SOL token was classified as a security, which may become an obstacle to its trading, although cases against Solana Labs have not been initiated.During this period, the company is strengthening control over the activities of validators: 30 operators were excluded from the delegation program for violations, having lost the opportunity to receive rewards for participating in the verification of transactions in the blockchain. According to CoinDesk, some bots were used for manipulation on decentralized financial platforms. In March, in the wake of the surge in popularity of meme tokens on Solana, Jito Labs temporarily disabled the mempool to prevent "sandwich attacks", but then activity increased again in private pools. Tim Garcia, who oversees the work with validators at Solana, confirmed that the company will continue to combat abuse by identifying and terminating cooperation with operators involved in unfair practices.Resistance levels: 159.60, 183.40.Support levels: 145.20, 121.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing moderate growth, holding near the $82.00 per barrel mark.This increase is supported by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which global oil demand will reach 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 1 million barrels more than in 2023. In the following years, the agency expects further growth in demand: up to 104.2 million barrels in 2025 and up to 105.0 million barrels per day in 2026. In parallel, the IEA predicts an increase in capital investments in the development of extractive capacities: after $ 538.0 billion was invested in this area in 2023, it is expected that in 2024 these investments will increase by at least 7%. This is especially true for non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States.Resistance levels: 82.90, 85.10.Support levels: 81.10, ...
OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. 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In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...