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US market: overview and forecast for June 1. Macro data increases instability
S&P 500, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Apple, stock, Meta Platforms, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 1. Macro data increases instability The market the day beforeThe session on June 30, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 lost 0.88%, closing at 3,785 points. Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell by 1.33% and 0.82%, respectively. Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in negative territory. Real estate companies (+0.33%) and utilities (+1.10%), as well as representatives of industry (+0.28%) looked better than the market.Company newsMeta Platforms (META: -1.6%) reported a likely decrease in the growth rate of financial indicators in the second half of the year due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and data privacy issues.Apple Inc (AAPL: -1.8%) has raised the cost of the iPhone in Japan by almost 20%, thereby trying to offset the effect of changes in the exchange rate and rising inflation in the country.We expectThe growth of consumer prices in the eurozone in June, according to Eurostat, accelerated from 8.1% to 8.6% with a consensus of 8.4%. This dynamic is mainly due to record levels of energy prices, although food and services are also noticeably more expensive. Thus, the cost of fuel rose by 41.9%, and the cost of food increased by 11.1%. Inflation excluding the prices of these two categories of goods accelerated from 4.4% in May to 4.6%, which is still more than twice the ECB's target of 2%. However, the indicator excluding alcohol and tobacco dropped by 3.7% from 3.8%. The European regulator continues to keep the key rate at a minimum, although other central banks launched monetary policy tightening programs a few months ago. The ECB plans to start a rate hike cycle in July (according to preliminary data, by 25 bps). At the same time, statistics for June, indicating a continued acceleration of inflation, serves as a reason to raise the rate by 50 bps in September.In Germany, an increase in the number of unemployed was recorded by 133 thousand, to 2.4 million, although analysts expected a decrease in this indicator by 5 thousand. In turn, in the United States, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended June 25 decreased by 2 thousand, to 231 thousand, with a consensus of 234 thousand. In our opinion, employment growth in the States has almost stopped, so in the coming weeks statistics will reflect the deterioration in this segment. However, unemployment remains low.The yield of two- and ten-year treasuries decreased by 14 and 12 bps - to 2.93% and 2.97%, respectively.Trading on July 1 at most sites in Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 0.41%, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.73%, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained unchanged.Brent crude futures are quoted at $108 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,794 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3750-3800 points.MacrostatisticsThere are no plans to publish important statistics today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureSince the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has adjusted down by 26%, including 19% for the second quarter. This was one of the worst results in the history of this statistics. However, in the coming weeks, the market may begin to play rebalancing in stocks by portfolio managers. The nearest support for the broad market index is in the range of 3600-3660 ...
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US market: overview and forecast for June 30. News of the day - release of the PCE index
S&P 500, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Tesla Motors, stock, FedEx, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 30. News of the day - release of the PCE index The market the day beforeTrading on June 29, the main benchmarks of the US stock market ended in different directions. The S&P 500 dropped 0.07%, closing at 3,819 points, the Nasdaq lost 0.03%, the Dow Jones added 0.27%. Issuers from the healthcare sectors (+0.87%) and discretionary consumer goods (+0.49%) showed positive dynamics. Energy companies (-3.43%) and representatives of the real estate industry (-0.76%) looked worse than the market.Company newsTesla Inc. (TSLA: -1.79%) is closing one of its offices in California and laying off 200 employees as part of a cost-cutting strategy, the Wall Street Journal reports.FedEx Corp. (FDX: -2.62%) presented a revised forecast ahead of the investor meeting. The new targets for fiscal year 2025 imply an increase in total annual revenue and adjusted EPS by 4-6% and 14-19%, respectively.Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY: -23.58%) reported an adjusted quarterly loss of more than the consensus forecast and did not meet revenue expectations. Amid the weak results of the first quarter, the company announced the resignation of its CEO, which could be a positive signal for investors.We expectOn June 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the ECB forum, acknowledging during the discussion that efforts to combat high inflation and the tightening of the PREP are accompanied by risks of a serious slowdown in economic activity and, although a "soft landing" of the economy is still possible, this process will be difficult, and its result is not guaranteed by the regulator. In an interview with CNBC, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she considers it necessary to further increase the discount rate by 75 bps in July and expects to reach 3-3.5% by the end of the year. Today's release of the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), reflecting the dynamics of inflation, will be a key moment for market participants, as it will allow them to predict the next steps of the Federal Reserve.According to the final estimate, in the first quarter, US GDP decreased by 1.6% QoQ, whereas previously a possible drop was estimated at 1.5%. At the moment, the consensus forecast of economists assumes the growth of the US economy in the current quarter by 2.5% QoQ, while the Atlanta Fed expects zero dynamics of the country's GDP. At the same time, according to preliminary estimates, the US trade deficit is shrinking, and the volume of inventories in the country increased by 2% in May, which acts as a factor in supporting economic growth. In addition, the presence of excess stocks at the largest retailers pushes them to the decision to lower prices to free up filled warehouses and attract buyers. It is expected that this will also contribute to a slowdown in commodity inflation. In turn, price stabilization will serve as a signal for the Fed to raise interest rates less aggressively.The stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region completed the trading session on June 30 in different directions. Japan's Nikkei dropped by 1.54%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.62%, China's CSI 300 rose by 1.44%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 1.94% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $116 per barrel. The price of gold is $1813 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3770-3840 points.MacrostatisticsThe PCE index for May will be published today. The overall indicator is expected to increase to 6.5% YoY after 6.3% at the end of April. The growth of the underlying PCE (excluding volatile components), on the contrary, may slow down to 4.8% YoY after 4.9% a month earlier.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped by one point to 28.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 ended the last trading session in the red. The RSI is held near neutral values. MACD indicates the bulls' attempts to hold positions, but the probability of a trend reversal in favor of buyers in the near future is still weak. The next resistance level is located around the psychologically significant mark of 3990-4000 points, the closest support is still the range of 3600-3660 ...
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US market: overview and forecast for June 29. Waiting for Jerome Powell's speech
Nikkei 225, index, S&P 500, index, EURO STOXX 50, index, Hang Seng, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Qualcomm, stock, US market: overview and forecast for June 29. Waiting for Jerome Powell\'s speech The market the day beforeThe session on June 28, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 fell by 2.01% to 3,821 points, the Dow Jones lost 1.56%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 2.98%. 10 of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index showed a decline. The exception was the energy sector, which added 2.70%. Among the leaders of the fall were manufacturers of durable goods (-4.03%) and technology companies (-3.01%).Company newsAccording to analysts, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM: +3.48%) may remain the main supplier of modem chips for Apple Inc (AAPL: -2.98%) in 2023.Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-A: -1.32%) announced the purchase of 794.4 thousand more ordinary shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: +4.77%).In the first quarter, the number of hotel bookings on the platforms Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM: +10.79%) outside China exceeded the pre-pandemic level.We expectBeijing and Shanghai reported no new cases of COVID-19 for the first time since February, which gives hope for the full opening of China's economy. In addition, some of the largest US banks have increased their plans for dividends and share buybacks after the Fed stress test. However, it seems that these positive factors are offset by the consumer confidence index released yesterday for the current month: the indicator fell to 98.7 against the expected value of 101 points. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and significantly less than 127.3 points in June a year ago. Additional pressure on the stock market was exerted by the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, that the Fed may raise the rate at the July meeting by 75 bps. Also today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech. Perhaps the head of the American financial regulator will try to calm the market somewhat, which will allow investors to revise expectations about the prospects for US GDP in the direction of improvement: from the inevitability of a recession to a temporary slowdown in economic growth.The yield of ten- and two-year treasuries on the eve increased by 1 bps compared to the values on June 20, to 3.21% and 3.14%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year bonds reached 3.31%.Trading on June 29 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 0.91%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost by 1.88%, and China's CSI 300 dropped by 1.54%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 0.87% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $117.98 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1817.5 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3810-3860 points.MacrostatisticsData on the dynamics of US GDP for the first quarter will be published today. It is expected to fall by 1.5% QoQ in accordance with the indicators observed a month earlier.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index from Freedom Finance dropped one point to 29.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues its correction within the downtrend. The RSI has approached the neutral level. The MACD signals the possible development of an upward ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for today, June 28, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Brent oil & Gold
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, June 28, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Brent oil & Gold EUR/USD: asset expects statements from ECB officialsThe single currency of the eurozone is trading slightly lower, being in correction, having made attempts to gain a foothold with the onset of the week, allowing the EUR/USD instrument to resume the local maximum of June 10.At the moment, the market is waiting for an announcement from the European regulator about the launch of a key rate hike cycle, against which the currency pair has secured fundamental support. Recall that on the eve of the ECB President Christine Lagarde allowed the possibility of raising the rate by 25 basis points during the summit announced for July. In addition, the next stage of the indicator increase is scheduled for September. Some analysts are of the opinion that the European regulator does not fully assess the risks of inflation, repeating the mistake of the US Federal Reserve, which for a long period of time considered the strengthening of the cost of consumer goods a temporary phenomenon. In the current conditions, the US regulator is trying to correct the miscalculation by increasing the pace of monetary policy tightening, putting the national economy at risk, provoking the onset of stagflation.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0747.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400.GBP/USD: the pair is limited in growth due to statistics from the USAThe British currency shows mixed trading dynamics, being in consolidation at 1.2270. The beginning of the trading week did not give the GBP/USD pair any significant trend reversals, allowing the pound only to update the local maximum from June 17.The instrument was prevented from securing the upward dynamics of quotations by a positive block of data on orders of long-term goods. According to statistics, the May indicator increased 0.7%, increasing by 0.4% last month, surpassing analysts' forecast of strengthening by only 0.1%. The demand for capital goods without calculating the defense and aviation segments also increased to 0.5% from the previous 0.3%. Optimistic sentiment intensified after fixing the number of unfinished contracts for the purchase of residential real estate in the United States. So, in May, their volume sank by 0.7%, after the last decline by 4.0% in April terms, against market estimates of negative trend retention at -3.7%. The annual indicator, meanwhile, continues to remain at a negative level of -13.6%, against -9.1% last month.Resistance levels: 1.2328, 1.2400, 1.2457, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2236, 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2000.Gold PricesThe value of the precious metal is trading with a slight increase, restoring the losses incurred the day before. The asset's positions reached the 1825.00 mark, while waiting for positive signals in the news background.A negative factor on the instrument is the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which was fixed at 3.187%, having closed earlier at 3.124% a session earlier. Market participants are trying to assess the prospects of a possible embargo on metal supplies from the Russian Federation, which has already been reported by sources close to the decision-making center. According to insiders, the G7 states are likely to approve a complete ban on the import of the extracted precious metal into the Russian Federation. An additional negative signal for gold was the intention of the world regulators to continue tightening monetary parameters as part of the fight against record inflation in the regions. So, already during the announced meeting for July, the US Federal Reserve announced its readiness to raise the key rate, meanwhile the ECB also gave a comment confirming its determination to start a cycle of increasing the target.Resistance levels: 1843.37, 1857.27, 1869.49, 1878.84.Support levels: 1828.22, 1816.62, 1800.00, 1775.00.Oil Market OverviewThe price of "black gold" of the Brent reference grade showed a decline following the results of the past week, however, during Friday's trading session it returned upward dynamics, which allowed it to reach the 112.50 mark.Bidders note two events in the coming days that can make significant changes in the nature of the movement of raw materials on the market. This day, the G7 countries are holding consultations on banning the import of petroleum products from the Russian Federation, at the same time, an option is being considered to introduce a fixation of the cost of energy, which will lead to an increase in the deficit on trading platforms. In case of a positive result of the meeting on these issues, as economists expect, the official Kremlin will be able, on its own initiative, to refuse to supply goods from the eurozone and the United States, refocusing on the markets of Asian regions, which will cause an increase in the cost of raw materials.Resistance levels: 112.50, 118.75, 121.88.Support levels: 107.90, 100.00, ...
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Articles about financial markets

"Ghost Armada": how does Iran circumvent sanctions on oil trade?
Brent Crude Oil, energetic, WTI Crude Oil, energetic, \ In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
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Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting
Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...
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The oil price in August. What is the threat of the conflict between Israel and Iran?
Brent Crude Oil, energetic, WTI Crude Oil, energetic, The oil price in August. What is the threat of the conflict between Israel and Iran? In the last month of summer, the oil exchange rate is likely to show a correctionIn August, the oil price depends on several important factors - first of all, the recovery of the market in the United States and the new flare-up of the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli authorities have accused Iran of attacking an oil tanker, and the United States and Great Britain have already promised support to Israel. Against this background, the oil exchange rate moved to growth after a short correction, but it is not known how long this recovery growth will be. We offer a traditional analysis of oil prices.Reducing unemployment in the United StatesIn many ways, the positive movement on the US stock markets has a positive effect on the oil exchange rate: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices traditionally update historical highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has fallen sharply.During the last week of July, only 385 thousand such appeals were registered, and the total number of recipients of benefits amounted to 3 million people. However, the effect of positive news from the US markets has already been played out, and the dynamics of the oil exchange rate will need new incentives to continue growth.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the United States show an increase in the commodity deficit, which increased from $71 billion in May to $75.7 billion in June. This was largely due to a 2.1% increase in imports compared to the previous month, although exports increased by only 0.6%. This is largely due to a reduction in supplies, which in turn restricts production within the United States.There are already reports about how the spread of a new strain of coronavirus can affect the American economy. In particular, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said, the new strain may slow down the recovery of the labor market. This completely contradicts the recent statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who assured analysts that the delta strain is not a risk to the American economy.Positive statistics on the labor market may force the Fed to change its approach to monetary policy and increase rates, as well as curtail the quantitative easing program. First of all, this will lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which in turn will affect the commodities denominated in the US currency. In this case, the oil exchange rate will be influenced by another important negative factor. Moreover, investors will begin to withdraw resources from risky assets, and then the Russian and Chinese stock markets will suffer.Already half of the US states have stopped paying increased unemployment benefits, which on the one hand indicates that there is no need for additional incentives, and on the other hand may mean an increase in demand for fuel. However, in any case, the statistics on the labor market in the United States may not be as positive as it may seem at first glance - the number of jobs outside agriculture, on the contrary, turned out to be less than a year earlier. First of all, this was caused by a large number of dismissals in the field of higher education.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsThe influence of China and RussiaAn increase in oil purchases from China can potentially act as a new incentive for the hydrocarbon market. So, China may soon announce an increase in quotas for the purchase of hydrocarbons. Moreover, it is expected that more oil will be purchased not only by small refineries from China, but also by large Chinese companies.The main seller of oil on the Chinese market is the Arab countries from the Persian Gulf, so first, most likely, prices for Dubai grade oil will rise sharply, and other grades, including the benchmark Brent, will follow it. However, these expectations are contradicted by the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China - due to lockdowns and restrictive measures, traffic on some of the most important logistics routes is reduced.Moreover, the Chinese authorities have decided to restrict air and rail travel around the country. In the Asian region, the number of infected people has been growing recently. In particular, in Thailand, even new restrictive measures did not help to stop the increase in new cases. Similarly, in Sydney, Australia, the increase in new cases has reached a historic high, and the authorities expect the situation to worsen further.In turn, Russian oil companies are trying to use the OPEC+ deal to get more favorable working conditions inside the country. In particular, they suggested that the government reduce the tax burden on the industry, which in turn will help start the development of hard-to-reach oil. To do this, they proposed to create two new groups of deposits, for which they proposed to reset the tax on mineral extraction.The first group includes areas with the volume of initial reserves of less than 65 million tons and the degree of depletion of less than 1%. The second group includes the deposits of ultra-viscous oil in the Komi Republic. Moreover, the oil companies decided to stimulate the exploration of hard-to-recover reserves. To do this, it is proposed to use a traditional set of tools - tax deductions and reduction of payments for the mineral extraction tax. However, so far the Ministry of Finance is against the initiative, which is not eager to help oil companies and does not plan to change the taxation of the industry until 2023-2024, until the end of the OPEC+ agreement.At the same time, the further deterioration of the pandemic situation in the world may become a deterrent to the growth of oil prices. Recently, in order to combat the spread of a new delta strain of coronavirus, an increasing number of countries have been strengthening restrictive measures on the mobility of the population. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in China, where domestic air and rail traffic was limited in order to localize outbreaks of the disease, which directly affects the oil exchange rate.Oil price analysisOil futures moved into the negative zone, without reaching the goals of a short-term rebound. These levels are located near the $73.50 and $71.50 marks, which corresponds to the average Bollinger bands on the daily chart. In general, the oil exchange rate is affected by downward pressure, and analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that a correction may occur in the hydrocarbon market in the near future. The support lines are located near the previous lows - around $70.20 and $67.50, according to the technical analysis of oil prices.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksIn the first week of August, the dynamics of the oil exchange rate showed a failure-from about $75 to $70 literally from August 2 to 5. The reason for the increase is quite banal - the growth of fuel reserves in the American market, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. According to official data, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, while a decrease of 3.9 million barrels was expected. Moreover, analysts are influenced by data on the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in China, the United States and Japan, as well as the associated expectations of new restrictions.The most important factor that positively affects the dynamics of the oil exchange rate remains the growth of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel on the one hand and Iran and Lebanon on the other threatens the rapid exit of hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic to foreign markets, as well as generally increases the uncertainty of oil transportation from the Middle East. As a result, literally in one day on August 5, the oil exchange rate recovered to $71 per barrel, and the next day it was already testing the level of $72 per barrel.A new conflict in the Middle East may become a significant factor that is likely to affect the oil price in August. According to Israeli Defense Minister Beni Gantz, his country is ready to start a war against Iran because of a drone strike on an oil tanker. We are talking about the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker.Officially, the ship belongs to Japan, sails under the flag of Liberia, but it is operated by the Israeli company Zodiac Maritime. According to Gantz, the Islamic Republic has no more than two and a half months to come close to producing nuclear weapons. In this context, the attack on an Israeli tanker becomes part of a large-scale confrontation in the region. If the tension increases, the oil exchange rate may receive additional support.In turn, Israel has already received assistance from its traditional allies - the United States and Great Britain. As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hastened to say, " Iran must answer for the consequences." In turn, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that the Islamic Republic is ready to protect its security and national interests. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also joined the diplomatic skirmish, saying that Tehran was undoubtedly behind the attack, and the allies would prepare a "collective response" to this attack.Thus, two multidirectional factors: the strengthening of anti-bullying measures and the growing conflict in the Middle East are pushing the trajectory of the oil exchange rate in different directions. If the first factor leads to a reduction in demand, the second one seriously reduces the supply of oil - it is the Middle East conflicts that traditionally push the cost of hydrocarbons up. According to most analysts, the combination of two multidirectional factors can cause the oil exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range from $68 to $75 per Brent, depending on the news background.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for ...
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