EUR/USD: EU GDP is expected to increase in the second quarterDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows multidirectional movements, remaining near the 1.0990 level. Trading takes place in conditions of low activity, as investors refrain from opening new positions before the release of important macroeconomic statistics.Analysts predict that in the second quarter, EU gross domestic product (GDP) growth will remain at 0.3%, which should lead to an increase in the annual rate from 0.4% to 0.6%. In Spain, the consumer price index for July fell from 3.4% to 2.8%, which corresponds to the general trend towards slowing inflation in the region and supports the current position of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. Earlier, the market's attention was focused on data on business sentiment in the eurozone and Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). These data turned out to be weaker than expected: the index for the eurozone fell from 43.7 to 17.9 points, and for Germany — from 41.8 to 19.2 points, which is significantly lower than forecasts.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a correction, being at the level of 102.40 in the USDX index. The July producer price index showed an increase of only 0.1%, which is below market expectations, and led to a decrease in the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.2%. The base indicator remained unchanged for the month, but decreased from 3.0% to 2.4% in annual terms, indicating a decrease in the industry's ability to maintain price levels.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0970, 1.0880.GBP/USD: annual inflation in Britain fell to 3.3% in JulyThe GBP/USD pair is showing instability, fluctuating around the level of 1.2830. Traders' attention is focused on the latest inflation statistics from the UK for July.The annual core consumer price index fell from 3.5% to 3.3%, despite expectations of 3.4%, while the broader index increased from 2.0% to 2.2%, with a forecast of 2.3%. The monthly value of the indicator fell by 0.2% after the previous 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the UK labour market is also showing signs of slowing down: annual earnings growth is slowing and the number of vacancies has been declining for 25 months in a row. This reduces the likelihood that the Bank of England will continue to aggressively raise interest rates. Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, expressed concerns about a possible return of inflation to high levels, despite the fact that in June inflation was kept in the target range of 2.0-3.0%. Recall that Mann was one of those who voted to keep the rate at 5.25%, not supporting the majority's decision to reduce it to 5.00% for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.On the same day, investors also expect inflation data from the United States. The core consumer price index excluding food and energy is projected to decrease from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and rise from 0.1% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. The broader index is expected to fall from 3.0% to 2.9%, but with an increase of 0.2% after the previous decrease of 0.1%. It is important to note that the core producer price index in the United States fell from 3.0% to 2.4% in July, exceeding analysts' expectations.Resistance levels: 1.2860, 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2776, 1.2730, 1.2700.Gold market analysisGold is showing a slight decline, moving away from the recent local highs reached on August 2. Currently, the instrument is testing the 2460.00 level, trying to break it down while market participants are waiting for new factors that can affect the price movement.In addition, gold quotes are supported against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions. There have been reports in the media about a possible Iranian military operation against Israel, which could begin as early as this week. Official Tehran has threatened retaliatory measures for the death of the leader of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. The alleged attack could negate all cease-fire efforts in the Gaza Strip and significantly expand the scale of the conflict in the Middle East.There is also an uptrend in the market. According to the latest report of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased from 246.6 thousand to 238.7 thousand. Recently, market participants have been actively closing positions in anticipation of a possible correction: the balance of the bulls amounted to 203.726 thousand positions against 18.252 thousand for the bears. Last week, buyers closed 7,882 thousand contracts, while sellers reduced their positions by 4,447 thousand, indicating continuing concerns about further growth.Resistance levels: 2470.00, 2483.64, 2497.67, 2510.00.Support levels: 2450.00, 2431.44, 2415.00, 2400.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are recovering from yesterday's decline, which did not allow quotes to gain a foothold at new highs reached on July 23. The instrument is currently testing the 80.70 level.Today at 16:30 (GMT+2), the report of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) on the dynamics of oil reserves for the week ended August 9 is expected to be published. Analysts' forecasts indicate a possible decrease in inventories by 2 million barrels, after a decrease of 3.728 million barrels last week. In addition, market participants are analyzing the updated forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA experts have revised their expectations for an increase in global hydrocarbon production in 2024, lowering them by 40 thousand. barrels per day to a total of 102.93 million barrels per day. In 2025, production is expected to increase to 104.88 million barrels per day, while demand in 2024 is projected at 970 thousand barrels per day, which will lead to a total consumption of 103.06 million barrels per day. Among the factors constraining demand growth, the slow recovery of the Chinese economy and the possible weakening of industrial production in the EU countries are mentioned. It is also noted that in the second quarter, fuel demand outside the OECD countries was the lowest since 2020.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.40, 83.14.Support levels: 80.00, 79.00, 77.86, ...
AUD/USD: pair is trying to gain a foothold above 0.6800The AUD/USD pair shows an ambiguous movement, hovering around the critical resistance level of 0.6800. The market refrains from active actions in anticipation of new peaks, starting the year with attempts to consolidate at record levels.The publication of today's data on the Australian economy did not bring additional support to the Australian dollar. The slowdown in retail sales growth in July to 0% against the expected 0.3% may affect future decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Despite the lack of intentions to reduce the cost of loans in the near future, as stated by the head of the bank Michelle Bullock, the RBA anticipates that inflation will remain above the target range of 2.0-3.0% until the end of 2025, which implies a possible continuation of a high interest rate.The dynamics of lending in the private sector in July showed minor changes, confirming the stability of the previous months. American statistics affecting the Federal Reserve System, including the expected acceleration of the core index of personal consumption expenditures in July from 2.6% to 2.7%, will also be in the focus of investors' attention. It is expected that today's data on personal income and expenses will confirm this trend, which may become a catalyst for a change in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700.USD/CHF: the Central Bank of Switzerland has identified the problems of the manufacturing sectorDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF pair shows stable movement, having fixed near the level of 0.8480. There is a slight increase against the background of data from the United States, preparing for the end of the week.Traders are focused on the index of leading economic indicators from KOF, the projected decrease of which from 101.0 to 100.6 indicates economic difficulties. Thomas Jordan, the soon-to-retire head of the Swiss National Bank, highlighted challenges for the Swiss industry, including the strengthening of the franc and declining demand from the EU, especially from Germany. He reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining price stability with inflation between 0.0% and 2.0%, noting the importance of this for economic recovery. Jordan also stressed that the main policy instrument will be the interest rate, but did not rule out the possibility of currency interventions. Market participants estimate the probability of monetary policy easing at the next meeting on September 26 at 70% for a decrease of 25 basis points and 30% for a more aggressive change of 50 basis points.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.NZD/USD: July showed growth in the New Zealand construction industryThe NZD/USD trading instrument is experiencing a correction in light of the weak activity of the US dollar and positive New Zealand statistics at the level of 0.6262.In July, there was an increase in the construction of new homes in New Zealand: the total number of new projects amounted to 33,921 thousand per year, which is 22.0% lower than last year. The construction of 18,503 thousand multi-apartment buildings and 15,418 thousand detached houses was approved, which is 28.0% and 14.0% less than the previous data, respectively. Despite the overall reduction, 3,352 thousand more construction projects were approved in July, which indicates a possible turn in the positive direction.The US dollar showed a slight strengthening, reaching the level of 101.20 USDX, which was supported by data on US GDP, which showed growth of 3.0% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations (2.8%). There was also a slight decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits to 231.0 thousand from the previous 233.0 thousand, although the total number of applications increased to 1.868 million.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6230, 0.6080.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices continue to adjust within the framework of a weak downtrend, holding below the key level of $ 79.00 per barrel. The hydrocarbon market remains unstable, and quotations show frequent fluctuations against the background of mixed fundamental factors affecting the dynamics of the asset.Recent news related to the visit of OPEC Secretary General Haysam al-Gais to Iraq and Kazakhstan showed that these countries plan to compensate for the under-fulfilled volumes of oil production cuts that were not fulfilled under the OPEC+ deal from January to July 2024. Iraq intends to replace the missing 1.44 million barrels per day by September 2025, and Kazakhstan — 0.699 million barrels per day. These measures are aimed at maintaining the flexibility of energy price regulation and can contribute to the stabilization of global markets.Additionally, data on oil reserves in the United States were released this week. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), inventories decreased by 3,400 million barrels after the previous small increase of 0.347 million barrels. At the same time, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy recorded a decrease of 0.846 million barrels, which is in line with market expectations. The total decline in U.S. oil reserves since mid-summer has exceeded 31.0 million barrels, and this trend has been going on for more than nine weeks in a row, which may lead to complications in the recovery of reserves in the future.Support levels: 77.20, 73.30.Resistance levels: 80.00, ...
EUR/USD: GDP data confirms the growth of the EU economyThe EUR/USD pair is correcting after the start of the week, marked by a fall, and is updating the lows since July 4, trading at 1.0825.Despite the positive macroeconomic statistics, the asset quotes did not receive support: in the second quarter, French GDP remained at 0.3% in quarterly terms and decreased to 1.1% from 1.5% annually. In Spain, GDP grew by 0.8% on a quarterly basis and changed from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annual basis. Germany, as expected, showed negative values of -0.1% in quarterly and annual terms. At the same time, the overall EU figure reached 0.3%, increasing from 0.4% to 0.6%, which is the largest increase since August 2023. Thus, a recession in the region is unlikely this year, and the European Central Bank may consider lowering interest rates in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.NZD/USD: mixed trading activityThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed movement: the exchange rate is testing the 0.5900 level with potential for growth, but earlier in the day it reached highs since July 25 around 0.5925. Traders are restraining activity against the US dollar ahead of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, where no changes in monetary policy are expected, but clarification of the possibility of an interest rate cut in September is expected. Data on slowing inflation and a cooling labor market support this prospect.Reports on the business climate from New Zealand showed mixed results: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's business optimism index suddenly jumped from 6.1 to 27.1 points in July, and the activity forecast from the National Bank of New Zealand increased from 12.2% to 16.3%. Meanwhile, the number of construction permits issued in June fell significantly by 13.8%, after falling by 1.9% in May.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800.Silver market overviewThe price of silver continues to move up after the formation of an uptrend last week, analyzing the level of 28.60 for a possible breakthrough. Investors are waiting for new catalysts to strengthen the movement.The focus of traders' attention today is on the minutes of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, scheduled for publication at 20:00 (GMT+2). The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%, but the market is anticipating a possible decrease of 25 basis points at the September meeting, with the assumption of one or two more such corrections in 2024. At the same time, the Bank of Japan today announced the first increase in interest rates since 2007 by 25 basis points to 0.25%, reduced the volume of purchases of government bonds and hinted at a possible continuation of monetary policy tightening amid growing inflation risks. Tomorrow at 13:00 (GMT+2), a meeting of the Bank of England is expected, where interest rate regulation is projected at 5.00%, which may also affect market movements.Resistance levels: 28.68, 29.00, 29.35, 29.84.Support levels: 28.30, 28.00, 27.60, 27.30.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the price of Brent Crude Oil is experiencing a recovery after the recent recession, having tested the lowest levels since June 5 and heading towards the level of 79.30. Market participants expect new factors that could stimulate further movement.The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) has a positive impact on the price, showing a decrease in commercial reserves by 4.495 million barrels for the week ended July 26, which exceeds the previous decrease of 3.900 million barrels. It is expected that at 16:00 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also confirm a decrease in inventories, after the previous report of a decrease of 3.741 million barrels.Oil prices are also supported by increased geopolitical instability in the Middle East, in particular due to the recent missile attacks between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah. In addition, reports of the death of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, increase tensions in the region, as he played a key role in negotiations for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.Resistance levels: 79.00, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.86, 77.00, 76.05, ...
AUD/USD: correction of the Australian dollar continuesThe AUD/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, moving up in the ultra-short term and moving away from the lows recorded in early May. The pair is currently testing the 0.6555 level, trying to break it up, although steady growth is restrained by macroeconomic data from Australia. In June, there was a decrease in the number of building permits by 6.5%, despite an increase of 5.7% in the previous month and a projected decrease of 3.0%, while the annual figure improved from -8.5% to -3.7%.Inflation statistics will be presented in Australia tomorrow. The annual consumer price index is expected to increase from 3.6% to 3.8%, and the quarterly one will remain at 1.0%, while the weighted average annual index will remain at 4.0%, and the quarterly one will fall from 1.0% to 0.9%. This indicates that price restraint continues, but with limited success. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is raising borrowing costs less actively than other central banks, trying to support employment and ensure households' ability to withstand current economic conditions. Many experts believe that inflation will not reach the target level of 2.0–3.0% by the end of next year, which will require an additional increase in interest rates and may lead to a recession. Tomorrow's update on retail sales will also be important, where a decrease from 0.6% to 0.1% is expected.Resistance levels: 0.6568, 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6646.Support levels: 0.6540, 0.6523, 0.6500, 0.6480.USD/JPY: experts foresee a rate hike by the Bank of Japan tomorrowThe USD/JPY currency pair is showing moderate growth, approaching the level of 154.50 in anticipation of an upward breakout. The activity of traders in the US dollar remains restrained against the background of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for July 31.The results of the next meeting of the Bank of Japan will be announced tomorrow at 05:00 GMT+2. According to a Reuters poll, economists expect the regulator to raise the key rate to 0.10%. Meanwhile, analysts from ING Groep expect an increase to 0.15%, and Bank of America predicts an increase to 0.25%. In June, Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank of Japan, announced the possibility of increasing rates depending on the current economic, price and financial situation. Overall inflation in Japan remained at 2.8% in June, as in May, while core inflation, excluding fresh food, accelerated from 2.5% to 2.6%. Perhaps officials will also express concern about the significant weakening of the yen, which reached historically low values around 162.00 in early July.Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.50, 156.00, 156.50.Support levels: 154.50, 154.00, 153.50, 153.00.USD/CHF: bulls regain lost positionsThe USD/CHF currency pair continues the corrective movement of the last week, trying to overcome the level of 0.8870 up, while traders are waiting for new factors for the market movement.The results of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be published tomorrow at 20:00 (GMT+2). Analysts assume that the rate will remain at 5.5%, but hope for signals of a possible easing of monetary policy in September. By the end of the week, investors' attention will focus on data on the US labor market for July: the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector is expected to decrease from 206.0 thousand to 175.0 thousand, as well as a slowdown in wage growth from 3.9% to 3.7% per annum, while monthly indicators may remain at 0.3%.Inflation data in Switzerland will be announced on Friday. In July, the consumer price index is expected to maintain an annual level of 1.3% and decrease monthly from 0.0% to -0.2%, which confirms the trend of slowing price growth.Resistance levels: 0.8865, 0.8900, 0.8935, 0.8964.Support levels: 0.8839, 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8750.Oil Market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing a slight decline, hovering just below the $79.00 per barrel mark.Recently, the oil market has been particularly affected by speculation amid geopolitical instability and political events in the United States. For example, a recent statement by Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, underscores his belief that the current decline in oil prices is the result of OPEC manipulations aimed at supporting the candidacy of Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party. Trump claims that after the election, OPEC will stop controlling prices, which will lead to significant profits for the participating countries. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the extension of restrictions on oil production for the next quarter is aimed at stabilizing the market in the long term. He also stressed that the current price volatility is due to speculative actions and does not reflect the real state of the market situation.Resistance levels: 79.50, 83.20.Support levels: 78.10, ...
OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. 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In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...