{{val.symbol}}
{{val.value}}

Crude Oil signals & trading forecasts

IndexaCo Signals Marketplace - trading signals with real-time results on the financial markets from professional traders

Blogs

Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil on November 29
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil on November 29 EUR/USD: euro grows before eurozone inflation dataThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, continuing the bullish trend started last week. The currency seeks to strengthen above the level of 1.1000, ahead of the expected economic reports from the European Union and the United States.Today, investors are focused on the November statistics on consumer confidence in the Eurozone, where the indicator is expected to remain stable at -16.9. A slight improvement in economic sentiment is expected, with a correction from 93.3 to 93.7 points. Also due for release is German inflation data for November, where the annualized consumer price level is forecast to decline from 3.8% to 3.5%, with a 0.2% decline expected on a monthly basis. The harmonized consumer price index is forecast to be -0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis. The Gfk Group survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment among German consumers to -27.8 points, better than forecasts. In addition, the pace of private sector lending in the eurozone fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in October, while business lending fell 0.3%, the first decline since 2015.Resistance levels: 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0964, 1.0930, 1.0900, 1.0850.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to be under pressureThe USD/CAD currency pair has been showing a downward trend since the beginning of November and is currently approaching the level of 1.3549.The US dollar is under pressure due to investors' beliefs that the Federal Reserve will soon start discussing the prospects of interest rate cuts. Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, suggested the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline over the next 3-5 months. On Thursday, data is expected to be released on the core private consumption price index for October, which is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% year-over-year. The realization of these forecasts may strengthen the position of supporters of a looser monetary policy in the Federal Reserve, which may have a negative impact on the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3705, 1.3793, 1.3916.Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3450, 1.3305.Gold price analysisThe currency pair XAU/USD is witnessing a slight rise, continuing the uptrend in the short term and updating the last highs recorded in early May. The currency is actively testing the possibility of overcoming the level of 2050.00, with the US dollar feeling moderate pressure due to expectations of the end of the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Recently, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller emphasized that a loosening of policy in the coming months is being considered, provided inflation slows. However, other members of the regulator have pointed to potential price increases, especially in energy.Today, investors are focused on revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter and the Federal Reserve's economic report, known as the Beige Book. Tomorrow will see the release of October data on personal consumption price indexes, important for the Fed's inflation forecasting. The annualized core rate is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% and the monthly rate from 0.3% to 0.2%. Also to be released are the statistics on personal income and household spending, where income growth is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.2% and spending from 0.7% to 0.2%.Resistance levels: 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00, 2100.00.Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29.Crude Oil Market AnalysisWTI Crude Oil prices are in a horizontal trend, hovering around 76.55. Hydrocarbon prices have shown resilience this month after setting the date for the next OPEC+ summit to be held on November 30 via video conference. The postponement of the meeting was due to discrepancies in the alliance regarding oil production quotas. Experts' forecasts lean toward maintaining current production levels, especially from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have agreed to cut production by an additional 1.3 million barrels per day.Oil price movements are largely dependent on US hydrocarbon inventory reports. The positive movement was interrupted this week, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a -0.817 million barrel decline in inventories after a significant increase of 9.074 million a week earlier, implying a likely decline in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) report to be released today. Analysts anticipate a -0.933 million barrel decline after an increase of 8.701 million a week earlier, which could support oil prices.Resistance levels: 77.70, 81.20.Support levels: 75.50, ...
Read
Analytische Forex-Prognose für NZD/USD, Gold, Kryptowährungen und Rohöl für Montag, 27. November
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytische Forex-Prognose für NZD/USD, Gold, Kryptowährungen und Rohöl für Montag, 27. November NZD/USD: Neuseeländischer Dollar nahe SpitzenwertenDas Währungspaar NZD/USD erfährt eine Korrektur nach dem Anstieg der letzten Woche, als es seit dem 10. August frische Höchststände erreichte. Im Moment testet der Kurs das Niveau von 0.6060 auf die Möglichkeit eines Rückgangs, in Erwartung neuer Anreize auf dem Markt.Der heutige Tag wird die Aufmerksamkeit der Anleger auf die US-Verkaufszahlen für neue Häuser für Oktober und den November-Geschäftsaktivitätsindex der Federal Reserve Bank von Dallas lenken. Händler werden wahrscheinlich vorsichtig sein, neue Positionen bis Mittwoch, den 29. November, zu akzeptieren, wenn das Treffen der Reserve Bank of New Zealand stattfindet. Es wird erwartet, dass die Bank die Geldpolitik nicht strafft und den Zinssatz bei 5,50% belassen wird.Der neuseeländische Dollar wird von den am vergangenen Freitag veröffentlichten Einzelhandelsumsätzen für das dritte Quartal leicht unterstützt. Diese Daten zeigten Stabilität, nachdem sie im Vorquartal um 0,9% gefallen waren, im Gegensatz zu den Prognosen für einen Rückgang um 0,8%. Der Absatz ohne Berücksichtigung von Autos stieg um 1,0% und übertraf damit die Erwartungen von -1,5%.Widerstandsniveaus: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Analyse der GoldpreiseIn der asiatischen Handelssitzung zeigt das Währungspaar XAU/USD nach oben und versucht, über der wichtigen Marke von 2000.0 Fuß zu fassen. Dies geschieht vor dem Hintergrund einer vorübergehenden Waffenruhe im Nahostkonflikt, die die geopolitischen Risiken verringert, sowie aufgrund des anhaltenden Fallens des USD-Index.Experten diskutieren oft die Möglichkeit einer globalen Rezession in der US-Wirtschaft und die Zeit des Abschlusses einer aggressiven Finanzpolitik. Analysten der Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sie schätzen die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession auf 15% und gehen davon aus, dass die Korrektur der Kreditkosten im letzten Quartal des nächsten Jahres beginnen wird. Die UBS Group AG und Morgan Stanley prognostizieren im zweiten Quartal des kommenden Jahres die gleiche Entwicklung mit einer erwarteten Lockerung der Geldpolitik im März, wobei die Experten der UBS Group AG für 2024 eine Zinskorrektur von mehr als 275 Basispunkten erwarten. Unter solchen Bedingungen kann Gold Wachstum zeigen, da der Rückgang des USD-Index aufgrund der weichen Politik zu seinem Wachstum beiträgt, da die umgekehrte Korrelation zwischen Gold und Index gegeben ist, die auf ein normales Niveau nahe -0,80 zurückkehrt.Widerstandsniveaus: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support-Levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Analyse des KryptowährungsmarktesDie letzte Woche für das Währungspaar BTC/USD war gemischt: Zunächst gab es einen Rückgang auf das Niveau von 35640.00, gefolgt von der Wiederherstellung verlorener Positionen mit Überwindung des Niveaus von 38400.00, aber zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt fiel der Kurs wieder auf 37200.00.Dieser negative Trend ist mit einer verstärkten Kontrolle durch die amerikanischen Aufsichtsbehörden über die führenden Kryptowährungsplattformen verbunden. Zum Beispiel erkannte Changpeng Zhao, Leiter von Binance, die Unfähigkeit des Unternehmens, die Anforderungen des Anti-Geldwäsche-Programms einzuhalten, und trat zurück, wobei das Unternehmen mit einer Geldstrafe von 4,32 Milliarden Dollar bestraft wurde und zusätzliche rechtliche Einschränkungen auferlegte. Darüber hinaus hat die US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) die Kraken-Kryptobörse des illegalen Wertpapierhandels, der fehlenden Maklerlizenz und der Vermischung von Kundengeldern mit Unternehmensvermögen beschuldigt. Die Beamten bemühen sich, die Aktivitäten von Kraken vollständig zu verbieten und finanzielle Sanktionen zu verhängen. Auch Vertreter der Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) erklärten ihre Absicht, digitale Plattformen weiterhin zu verfolgen, wenn sie die Interessen ihrer Kunden nicht schützen.Widerstandsniveaus: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support-Levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Analyse des RohölmarktesWährend der asiatischen Handelssitzung gab es einen moderaten Rückgang des Wertes von WTI-Öl, der auf das Niveau von 75.00 fällt, was den bärischen Trend der letzten Woche fortsetzt.Der Preisverfall kommt vor dem Hintergrund der abnehmenden geopolitischen Spannungen in der Region Nahost, wo im Rahmen des Abkommens über den Austausch von Geiseln eine Waffenruhe in Gaza eingeführt wurde. Einige Experten glauben, dass diese temporäre Welt zu einer diplomatischen Konfliktlösung werden könnte. Darüber hinaus erwarten die Anleger die Ergebnisse des für den 30. November geplanten bevorstehenden OPEC+ -Gipfels, bei dem die Exporteure über die Möglichkeit einer weiteren Reduzierung der Ölproduktion verhandeln. Analysten sind zuversichtlich, einen Kompromiss zu erzielen, der zu einer Verringerung des Ölangebots auf dem Markt führen wird.Widerstandsniveaus: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Unterstützungsstufen: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...
Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oil on November 27
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oil on November 27 NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar is close to peak valuesThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction after the growth achieved last week, when it reached fresh highs since August 10. At the moment, the exchange rate is checking the 0.6060 level for the possibility of a decline, in anticipation of new incentives in the market.Today will attract investors' attention to the data on new home sales in the United States for October and the November business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Traders are likely to be cautious about taking new positions until Wednesday, November 29, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets. It is expected that the bank will not tighten monetary policy and will leave the interest rate at 5.50%.The New Zealand dollar is slightly supported by retail sales data for the third quarter, published last Friday. These data showed stability after a 0.9% drop in the previous quarter, contrary to forecasts of a 0.8% decline. Sales excluding cars increased by 1.0%, exceeding expectations of -1.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Gold price analysisIn the Asian trading session, the XAU/USD currency pair is showing growth, trying to gain a foothold above the important 2000.0 mark. This is happening against the background of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, which reduces geopolitical risks, as well as due to the continued decline of the USD index.Experts often discuss the possibility of a global recession in the US economy and the period of completion of aggressive financial policy. Analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate the probability of a recession at 15% and assume that the correction in the cost of loans will begin in the last quarter of next year. UBS Group AG and Morgan Stanley predict the same development in the second quarter of next year with the expected easing of monetary policy in March, and UBS Group AG experts foresee an interest rate correction of more than 275 basis points for 2024. In such conditions, gold can demonstrate growth, since a decrease in the USD index due to a soft policy contributes to its growth, given the inverse correlation between gold and the index, which returns to the usual level of about -0.80.Resistance levels: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Cryptocurrency Market AnalysisLast week was ambiguous for the BTC/USD currency pair: at first there was a decline to the level of 35640.00, followed by the recovery of lost positions with overcoming the level of 38400.00, but by the current moment the exchange rate has again fallen to the level of 37200.00.Such a negative trend is associated with increased control by American supervisory authorities over the leading cryptocurrency platforms. For example, Changpeng Zhao, the head of Binance, acknowledged the company's inability to comply with the requirements of the anti-money laundering program and resigned, while the company was fined $ 4.32 billion and additional legal restrictions were imposed. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the Kraken crypto exchange of illegal securities trading, lack of a broker's license and mixing client funds with corporate assets. The officials seek to completely ban the activities of Kraken and impose financial sanctions. Also, representatives of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced their intention to continue pursuing digital platforms if they do not protect the interests of their customers.Resistance levels: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Crude Oil Market AnalysisDuring the Asian trading session, there is a moderate decline in the price of WTI oil, which falls to the level of 75.00, continuing the "bearish" trend that developed last week.The drop in prices is taking place against the background of a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, where a ceasefire has been introduced in Gaza in the context of the hostage exchange agreement. Some experts believe that this temporary peace can turn into a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. In addition, investors are waiting for the results of the upcoming OPEC+ summit scheduled for November 30, where exporters are negotiating the possibility of an additional reduction in oil production. Analysts are confident that a compromise will be reached, which will lead to a decrease in the volume of oil supply on the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...
Read
Daily Forex Analytics and Forecast for USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold and Crude Oil on November 21
USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Daily Forex Analytics and Forecast for USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold and Crude Oil on November 21 USD/CAD: future trends will be determined by macroeconomic dataDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable, hovering around the level of 1.3715 ahead of the emergence of new key factors affecting the movement of the currency.Today, Canada is to publish data on consumer inflation for October. The annual index is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.2%, with a slight monthly increase of 0.1%. According to forecasts, the core inflation index will remain at 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, the Canadian dollar may decline.In the US, investors' main attention on Tuesday will be paid to the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve System, where experts will look for confirmation of the completion of tight monetary policy and initial estimates of the time when it will begin to weaken. Approximately 30% of analysts believe that the first rate cut may occur in March 2024.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3550.USD/CHF: the "American" continues to decline due to an unsuccessful correction attempt a day earlierThe USD/CHF trading instrument resumed its decline after the previous attempt at a corrective recovery failed. The currency pair is currently checking the 0.8830 level for the possibility of further decline, updating the minimum values since September 1.Uncertainty around the potential termination of the policy of tightening monetary conditions by the US Federal Reserve continues to put pressure on the exchange rate. Some analysts suggest that the first interest rate cut may occur as early as March 2024, based on recent data on the slowdown in US inflation in October. The consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.0% month-on-month, while forecasts expected levels of 3.3% and 0.1%, respectively.Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8930.Support levels: 0.8824, 0.8800, 0.8756, 0.8730.Gold price analysisThe precious metal is strengthening significantly, playing back the previous uncertain dynamics of the last two sessions. The metal is trying to overcome the 1990.00 level, updating the highs since November 3, amid market discussions that the US Federal Reserve may have completed the current stage of raising interest rates. This conclusion was made by investors after analyzing US inflation data for October, where the consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% per annum, coming close to the upper limit of the Fed's target range. Approximately 30% of analysts are now considering the likelihood of the first rate cut as early as March 2024.At the same time, market activity remains moderate in anticipation of the minutes of the November Fed meeting, from which market participants expect additional signals on future monetary policy. It is also expected to publish data for October on sales volumes in the secondary housing market, where experts predict a decrease in the indicator from 3.96 million to 3.90 million.Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1987.29, 1972.85, 1963.55, 1952.66.Crude Oil Market AnalyticsBrent Crude Oil prices fell to 81.94 on the news of a possible agreement by OPEC+ members to further reduce oil production at the upcoming meeting on November 26.Since September, oil prices have fallen by 16%, causing investors to worry about global energy demand amid the risk of increased hostilities in the Middle East. The situation worsened after data on China's GDP and trade balance were published, showing a decline in the country's economic growth from 6.3% to 4.9% on an annual basis in the third quarter.However, market participants also expect the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 26. In their monthly report, the organization's analysts stressed the stability of the main indicators of the oil market, despite the "pessimistic mood", and confirmed their optimistic forecast for oil demand growth in 2024. Despite this, it is likely that OPEC+ will decide to reduce oil production, especially after reports from Reuters about such plans from Russia. However, experts believe that any new restrictions on production will only lead to a short-term increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 82.50, 84.74, 88.03.Support levels: 78.27, ...
Read

Articles about financial markets

U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...
Read
"Ghost Armada": how does Iran circumvent sanctions on oil trade?
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, \ In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
Read
Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Read
Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...
Read
Message sent successfully.
We will contact you soon!