Crude Oil signals & trading forecasts

USD/JPY: Japan's financial authorities continue to test the digital currencyThe trading instrument USD/JPY is moderately declining, reinforcing the momentum of the "bears" since the beginning of the week. The asset is at 139.40, continuing to decline, while markets await the publication of US jobs market data by the end of the week.Meanwhile, the Japanese regulator reiterated its intention to continue testing the digital yen on the background of a positive test result in the second phase of the pilot project, which began last spring to this spring and showed a detailed analysis on the technology, allowing the use of maximum limits on the operation of the token. At the same time, the regulator's experts were conducting research on the timeframe for replacing traditional banking services with a transition to a new digital asset. As a reminder, starting June 1, Japan will implement a new set of rules to monitor the country's digital payments and transfers in order to track and detect criminal profits. So, from today, any financial institution that receives a cryptocurrency transaction in excess of $3,000 for processing will need to report details on the exchange company's client or the founder of the recipient.Resistance levels: 139.67, 140.21, 140.91, 141.50.Support levels: 138.90, 138.00, 137.50, 136.50.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency is approaching the low of NovemberThe NZD/USD currency instrument is trading with moderate losses, reaching the area of 0.6000 for further declines, moving towards the local low of November 10. The instrument is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of the PRC and New Zealand.Earlier published block of macroeconomic data reflected a downward correction in China's manufacturing sector business sentiment by the National Bureau of Statistics for May to 48.8 points from 49.2 points, with estimates of growth to 49.4 points, while the service sector declined to 54.5 points from the previous 56.4 points, beating the 50.7 point forecast. Business optimism from the RBNZ for May strengthened to -31.1 points from the previous -43.8 points, beating estimates of -43.4 points. A week earlier the financial authorities raised the cost of borrowing to the target level of 5.5%, after which they allowed the index to decline soon on the background of fixing stable economic indicators, and weakening inflation, which, in turn, continues to hold negative indicators. Minor support for the instrument was provided by the Chinese statistics. Thus, the Caixin business activity of the manufacturing sector for May increased to 50.9 points from 49.5 points, beating the neutral forecasts of experts, and the release of the May statistics on the labor market in the US is scheduled for Friday, the expectation of which keeps the attention of economists. The markets forecast a weaker dynamics of new vacancies in the agricultural sector down to 190.0 thousand from 253.0 thousand. Meanwhile, investors allow to see a slight change in the number of unemployed to 3.5% from 3.4%, which will be the first correction of the indicator in a long time.Resistance levels: 0.6043, 0.6100, 0.6150 and 0.6200.Support levels: 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900, 0.5850.GBP/USD: US mortgage rates continue to riseDuring the morning session the GBP/USD trading instrument shows mixed sentiment, testing the 1.2450 area and the local high of May 24. Pound intends to recoup the losses of the end of the previous week, but the upward dynamics is hindered by the strong position of the US dollar.So, the American currency again took the target to overcome the level of 104.000 on the USD Index. The increase in the cost of the threshold of the 30-year mortgage program to 6.91% from 6.69% triggered the decrease in the number of applications for the purchase of houses on the mortgage program of the index from 158.3 points to 154.4 points, which caused the pressure on the mortgage market index to 197.4 points from 205.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2100.Crude Oil market overviewAfter the asset declined two sessions in a row and renewed the local low of May 4, the price of WTI oil shows a correction at 68.57 in Thursday's trading, waiting for a new impetus to move.Wednesday's report showed an additional negative trend for oil. Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil reserves as of May 26, the value increased by 5,202 million barrels against the previous decrease of 6,790 million barrels. Today, on June 1, the market participants expect the previously announced statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which analysts forecast a decrease of 1.220 million barrels, which will continue the previous decline of 12.456 million barrels last week.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 72.50.Support levels: 68.04, 67.00, 65.74, ...

EUR/USD: euro is decliningThe EUR/USD is displaying multidirectional sentiment in the pair, testing the 1.0700 level and the local low of March 20. Investors are keeping low trading activity after the holiday the day before.Meanwhile the economists are estimating the recession in the German economy negatively, which may affect the stability of the European Union participants. Recall that the day before the publication the statistics on the national gross domestic product reflected the decrease to -0.2% from 0.3% against the market expectations of 0.2%, while the quarterly value remained negative to -0.3% from -0.4% against analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. Bloomberg experts see the reason for the low pace in failed energy policy and a slow transition to new technology.Resistance levels: 1.0725, 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850.Support levels: 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.USD/CHF: US dollar is getting strongerIn the morning session the USD/CHF is making up for the losses incurred from the two-day correction and traded at 0.9060, waiting for new impetus to develop further dynamics.Market participants' optimism supported the instrument, as traders noted positively the agreement on the US sovereign debt. Thus, at the end of last weekend, President Joe Biden confirmed the information about the success of the negotiations, where the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, acted as the second party. If Congress approves the bill by the end of the week, the United States will be able to avoid default and investors will shift their attention back to the Fed's strategy on monetary parameters.Today, May 30, the Swiss gross domestic product for Q1 and the index of leading indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute are scheduled to be published. Analysts expect the annual economy to correct to 0.6% from 0.8% but the quarterly economy to strengthen by 0.1%. The day before the dynamics were expected to be zero.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.AUD/USD: the Australian currency has resumed its declineTrading pair AUD/USD is dominated by the "bears", having lost the potential of upward dynamics of the last two sessions. The pair reached 0.6516 and continued to decline amid weak macroeconomic data from Australia.Thus, investors noted a sharp drop of 8.1% in the number of approved construction work orders for April, previously down 0.1% in March contrary to market expectations of a 2.0% growth, while the annual value has strengthened the negative trend to -24.1% from -17.3%, defying the average forecasts. Tomorrow the April revised Australian CPI data is scheduled for release and it is not expected to show significant correction to 6.1% according to the forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6563, 0.6590, 0.6635.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350.Oil market reviewAccording to the information from the trading floors, quotations of the North American light oil grade WTI are correcting in the downward dynamic at the mark 72.41.The day before the Secretary General of the cartel OPEC has held a conversation with reporters from the Iranian edition Shana, which was an opportunity to refute the desire of the organization to establish a fixed price for hydrocarbons, because exporters want to focus on the balance of supply and demand. Contrary to recent criticism of OPEC+ actions, the official spoke of the need to avoid populist rhetoric in the media, as the organization takes decisions on adjustments based solely on a fundamental analysis of market values and trends. In turn, the official expects the lifting of sanctions against official Tehran in the medium term, which will bring a significant amount of cheap raw materials to the world market and cap the resulting increased demand for oil and oil products.Resistance levels: 74.70, 80.60.Support levels: 70.30, ...

USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, ...

USD/JPY: Die Fed wird aufgefordert, ihren hawkishen Kurs fortzusetzenDas Handelsinstrument USD/JPY verzeichnet eine moderate Stärkung und testet die Marke von 136,00. Der Vermögenswert genießt Unterstützung durch technische Faktoren und die Erwartungen der Anleger hinsichtlich weiterer Schritte der US-Notenbank.Die japanische Währung wiederum ist aufgrund der Politik der japanischen Zentralbank, die am Vortag eine Fortsetzung der neutralen geldpolitischen Parameter bestätigte, ohne Stimulus. Zuvor hatten führende Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an einer von Reuters initiierten Umfrage teilgenommen, wonach die Befragten einen Anstieg des Kerninflationsindex für den Verbraucher im April von 3,1 % auf 3,4 % erwarteten. Lohnerhöhungen und ein Anstieg der Preise für Konsumgüter und Dienstleistungen deuten darauf hin, dass solche Daten in naher Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit veröffentlicht werden. Unterdessen zeigten die zu Beginn der Woche veröffentlichten makroökonomischen Daten Japans für April einen Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise um 0,2 % gegenüber einem Nullstand im März, während die Erwartungen der Analysten bei 0,3 % lagen.Widerstandsniveaus: 136,50, 137,50, 138,50, 139,67.Unterstützungsniveaus: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: Seitwärtsdynamik innerhalb der Grenzen von 0,6820-0,6600Wie das Australian Bureau of Data in seinem veröffentlichten Baubericht für März mitteilte, ging die Gesamtzahl der genehmigten Baugenehmigungen gegenüber dem Februar um 0,1 % zurück, während der private Sektor um 2,8 % zurückging. Die Gesamtzahl für alle Immobilienkategorien sank um 5,9 % und für neue Wohngebäude um 6,4 %. Das Volumen der Anträge für den Bau von Nichtwohngebäuden ging um 5,1 % zurück. Analysten weisen darauf hin, dass die Daten zum Immobilienmarkt, die Hoffnungen auf eine Erholung im ersten Quartal geweckt hatten, nun ihre Abwärtskorrektur wieder aufgenommen haben, was die nationale Wirtschaft unter Druck gesetzt hat.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,6720 und 0,6820.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0,6600, 0,6470.GoldpreisDer "sichere Hafen" wird leicht höher gehandelt, wobei er seine Verluste aus dem schwachen Rückgang vom Vortag wieder wettmacht und die Marke von 2014,00 testet.Der mäßige Druck auf das Edelmetall wurde durch den Nachrichtenhintergrund des vergangenen Donnerstags und Freitags ausgeübt, als der US-Dollar erneut versuchte, seine Position zu stärken. Darüber hinaus wurde der Rückgang der Notierungen durch einen Anstieg der Zinssätze für US-Staatsanleihen und eine Überprüfung der Pläne der US-Notenbank zur weiteren Anpassung der Kosten für die Kreditaufnahme verursacht. Die Expertengemeinschaft erwartet weiterhin eine Nullreaktion auf den Zinssatz und eine Fortsetzung des Zielsatzes von 5,25 %, während die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Anhebung am vergangenen Montag nicht über 4,0 % hinausging, inzwischen aber auf 12,0 % gestiegen ist.Die Veröffentlichung der Daten am Ende der Vorwoche, am 12. Mai, übte einen moderaten Druck auf den US-Dollar aus und ermöglichte dem Gold eine Erholung. So sank der Verbrauchervertrauensindex der Universität Michigan von 63,5 Punkten im Mai auf 57,7 Punkte, entgegen den Expertenschätzungen, die von einem Rückgang auf nur 63,0 Punkte ausgingen. Heute werden die Anleger in der Lage sein, die am Vortag von der New Yorker Fed bekannt gegebene Geschäftstätigkeit im verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu beurteilen.Widerstandsniveaus: 2030,00, 2050,00, 2065,00, 2085,00.Unterstützungsniveaus: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Überblick über den RohölmarktWährend des APAC-Handels zeigt Brent-Rohöl eine widersprüchliche Stimmung und hält sich im Bereich von 73,75. Die "Bären" machen weiter Druck, indem sie die Impulse der Vorwoche nutzen und das Instrument vom lokalen Hoch vom 2. Mai zurückziehen. Der Markt schätzt das Risiko eines Rückgangs des globalen BIP aufgrund der raschen Korrektur der Kreditkosten durch die führenden Regulierungsbehörden ein, die die Rekordinflation in den Regionen bekämpfen wollen.So hat die US-Notenbank in den ersten Maitagen den Zinssatz erneut um 0,25 % auf den Zielwert von 5,25 % erhöht, entgegen den Signalen aus dem Bankensektor, dass die Krise anhält. Unterdessen wurden die für Ende letzter Woche angekündigten regelmäßigen Gespräche zwischen US-Regierungschef Joe Biden und Kongressabgeordneten über die Anpassung der Schuldenobergrenze nach langwierigen Beratungen auf die erste Hälfte dieser Woche verschoben. Sollte keine Einigung erzielt werden, wird das Finanzministerium ab dem 1. Juni eine Reihe von Verpflichtungen gegenüber der Regierung nicht mehr in vollem Umfang bedienen.Widerstandsniveaus: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Unterstützungsniveaus: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, ...

OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...

In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...