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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil AUDUSD: pair has reached the level of 0.6800The Australian currency is showing moderate strengthening, having updated the local high of September 13, intending to overcome the resistance threshold of 0.6800.The macroeconomic block of published Australian data failed to affect the markets, meanwhile the traders' attention was spared by the sharp dip in inflation rate for October to 6.9% from 7.3% earlier, contrary to analysts' estimations of further strengthening to the level of 7.4%. Positive support for the instrument was provided by a 2.2% strengthening of the level of completed constructions for Q3, having earlier decreased by 2.0%. Thursday morning publications are not able to support the prospect for the bullish momentum in the pair. Thus, the industrial sector business activity from S&P Global for November moderately declined to 51.3 points from the previous 51.5 points, not justifying even the neutral estimates of the experts.Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.NZDUSD: updating local highs for AugustThe New Zealand dollar is trading up moderately, having updated the local highs of August 17.Positions in the NZD/USD trading instrument continue to remain under pressure amid weak New Zealand indicators. Thus, sentiment expectations from the ANZ for November updated to -13.7% from the previous -2.5%, disappointing analysts who expected only -2.1%. The head of the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) pointed out that the recession was deliberately triggered to lower the consumer price index, having earlier officially strengthened the percentage by 0,75% to the target of 4,25%, after which investors got the signal that in 2023 the value has a chance to reach the maximum peak of 5,5%. The regulator's updated expectations call for the economy to contract at 1.0% for the next 12 months beginning in mid-Spring and then remain at that level for the next six months before resuming growth.Resistance levels: 0.6350, 0.6400, 0.6450 and 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6288, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155.Gold pricesThe precious metal position in the market updated at 1780.00, intending to continue climbing to the level of 1785.00.Earlier, investors appreciated the speech of the US Federal Reserve chief, who signaled to the markets his intention to slow down the rate of interest rate correction from the next scheduled meeting. Thus, by mid-December, the agency will strengthen the key rate by 0.25%-0.50%, ending the systemic 0.75% hike. The official commented that the current decisions do not signal the end of the "hawkish" era of monetary policy, and the interest rate will remain high for a long time, where it will remain until the consumer price level corrects to the 2.0% target. Investors began to actively sell off the U.S. dollar, giving gold prices a boost on the market.Precious metals continue to see uncertainty in the market. According to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), last week net speculative positions for commodities were 116.1 thousand instead of 126.3 thousand. Market bears remain the leaders among swap dealers with 191.153 thousand instead of bullish 95.880 thousand, but sellers cut 5.020 thousand contracts, while buyers strengthened 4.259 thousand, which from the outside looks like a correction.Resistance levels: 1785.00, 1806.00, 1877.00.Support levels: 1725.00, 1680.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the "black gold" of the Brent grade traded with contradictory dynamics, testing the 86.80 indicator.Positive dynamics for oil meets resistance with expectations of OPEC+ meeting announced for the end of the week. According to Reuters citing unnamed sources, the cartel does not intend to approve an additional reduction in production capacity of raw materials, following the example of the previous meeting in October, where the strategy was changed in favor of increasing plans for 2.0 million barrels per day in view of the unstable situation in the world markets. Recall that since December 5, investors expect an increased level of volatility in the market due to the beginning of the prohibition of supplies of oil by sea from Russia. Moreover, the European alliance countries want to agree on the upper price limit for the Russian raw materials, but could not come to an agreement, as uncertainty and disagreement among members of the bloc continue. It is likely that the European authorities' decision will cause growth in oil without a correction in the production quota.Resistance levels: 87.33, 89.20, 91.00 and 92.47.Support levels: 86.00, 83.89, 82.27, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is regaining lossesThe euro is trading in the upward dynamic, ending an ambiguous trend at the beginning of the week, where EUR/USD strengthened at the opening of Monday's session and hit the local high of June 29 at 1.0500. However the "bulls" lost the advantage, and by the end of the day session the pair plunged into negative values.The positive dynamics of the asset is supported by the correctional weakening of the American currency, which continues to be in a "bearish" trend due to the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting in November. The regulator sent a signal to the market that it is ready to reduce the rate of the key indicator correction already by the end of this year, which supports about 70% of the surveyed experts, expecting to see the next rate hike of 0.50%, and next year the rate may decrease to 0.25%.A positive stimulus for the euro was the briefing of ECB (European Central Bank) Governor Christine Lagarde, who earlier said that the regulator intends to continue strengthening the interest rate, ignoring the risks of economic slowdown, which will reduce business activity in the region. Recall, the agency has set the target level for inflation at 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500 and 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)USD/CAD: the instrument finished the active growthIn the Asian trading session USD/CAD instrument showed slight decline, having earlier shown active strengthening, approaching the resistance level of 1.3500 and the local high of November 10.Investors are trying to realize the market outlook amid the comments of the ECB (European Central Bank) and U.S. Federal Reserve System officials, waiting for the next signals, as macroeconomic announcements include key data. This week, the U.S. will publish data on gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3, as well as report on employment for the current month. By the middle of the week, investors will want to assess China's October business activity which is of particular importance for the market amid mass protests due to tough quarantine measures. Today, on November 29, analysts expect the release of the updated statistics on the Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Q3. The preliminary estimate for the Canadian economy is expected to decline to 0.4% from 0.8% for the quarter, but the annual value may rise to 3.5% from the current 3.3%.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3440, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.NZD/USD: Downward channel continuesThe New Zealand currency holds the upward movement in value, trading at 0.6205, as the macroeconomic bloc contributed to a slight strengthening.According to publications from Stats.NZ (Statistics New Zealand), the employment rate in key sectors of the economy for October adjusted to 2.32 million jobs, but a corrective decline of 1.7% among primary industries, the manufacturing sector showed a strengthening of 0.6%, and the service sector remained flat. By age group, the biggest gain was in the 15-19 category, which added 18.5%, and the biggest outflow was in the 25-29 category, at -3.3%. Part-time employment in the first category is a major contributor to economic performance, so its strengthening was not able to have a significant impact.Resistance levels are at 0.6265 and 0.6467.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.5878.Oil market reviewThe benchmark Brent crude oil price is showing a correction, being slightly below the level of 87.00.There is no general consensus among Eurozone countries on the level of cap on Russian oil. As a diplomat stated the disagreement with the general concept was expressed by the delegation of Poland, continuing to demand the revision of the permissible price level for "black gold" in the range of 65.00-70.00, because based on the current market realities the specified limit does not put any pressure on the Russian economy. Moreover, according to information from market platforms, yesterday the Urals oil brand reached the level of 51.96. Discussions continue, and experts doubt that all parties will agree on the deal by December 5, when the restrictive measures are due to enter into force as part of the eighth package of sanctions, including a ban on oil supplies from Russia via the sea route.Resistance levels: 88.20, 95.00.Support levels: 82.80, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil USDJPY: The dollar started the trading week with declineThe US currency showed a downward trend against the Japanese yen, holding near the local low of November 15, at 138.50.The dollar has not lost its intention to recover losses since the end of the previous Friday, after the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting, which indicated the agreement to reduce the "hawkish" intensity regarding the interest rate strengthening in the future. For investors, it gave hope for a 0.50% correction in the next December meeting of the agency. However, financial authorities noted that such a decision does not signal the end of the fight against inflation, because the latter is still being held at record levels.Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50 and 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.AUDUSD: Australia's economy is decliningA downward correction in the Australian currency allowed the AUD/USD pair to reach the 0.6685 level."Bears" gained the dominant advantage after the release of weak macroeconomic data. According to the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), retail turnover for October was down 0.2% after strengthening 0.6%, the first time since December's 4.1% slump last year that the value has corrected downwards, the current swing was due to the weakening of all major industries except perhaps the grocery retail sector. Department stores were the key contributors to the negative movement, down 2.4%, followed by clothing retailing with -2.0% and restaurant and café chains also down -0.4% for the first time since January. The head of statistics of the retail segment of the ABS noted that the current situation is caused by an increase in the percentage indicator and will have a long-term impact on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesGold pricesThe price of the precious metal is consolidating at 1750.00, waiting for another positive signal, ending the moderate strengthening the day before, where the correction in gold was due to the weakness of the US dollar because of the release of November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.This week is important for further price movement of the asset, first of all, the release of the euro area consumer price statistics, as well as the data on the US employment market in November, which will be announced by the end of the week. Preliminary market assessments imply the reduction of the inflation rate to 10.4% from 10.6%, while the core CPI value will remain at the same level of 5.0%. The labor market statistics from the US are not expected to be sensational as forecasts expect new job postings excluding the agribusiness sector for November at 208,0K previously showing an October increase of 261,0K and the number of unemployed to display zero correction and remain at 3.7%.Resistance levels: 1765.30, 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1734.91, 1720.00, 1700.00, 1688.58.Oil signalsThe current trading week started with the active decrease in the Brent oil, revealing the potential of the "bears", which had gained the advantage since the end of the previous week, getting ready to test the 81.00 level.A decline in U.S. crude reserves provides little support for the "black gold. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a week earlier that strategic reserves were down by 3.691 million barrels, having previously declined by another 5.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) approved an extended license for 6 months for the largest national energy enterprise, which will allow the supply of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela, partially offsetting the shortfall in the Russian oil market and stabilizing the fall in market prices. However, the document still prohibits the payment of any tax duty or royalty to the Venezuelan government, besides receiving any dividend from PDVSA, which is a Venezuelan state oil company or other legal entity is still prohibited.Resistance levels: 82.27, 83.89, 86.00, 87.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 78.28, ...
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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil EUR/USD: US dollar is under pressureThe EUR/USD has been in an uptrend for two weeks in a row, hitting 1.0400. However the positive dynamics is supported not so much by the strengthening of the European currency as by the correction momentum of the American currency due to the October publication of the US CPI, which showed a significant reduction of its potential.The annual CPI reading was down to 7.7% from 8.2% previously, while producer prices were down to 8.0% from 8.4% previously. The publications reinforced hopes for a correction in the pace of further monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve and fueled a potential resurgence of investor activity in the segment of risky assets. FOMC officials are attempting to avoid an overly optimistic wave for the market, noting that weaker inflation in October does not yet point to a victory over inflation, noting that the key rate cap has a chance of correcting, contrary to the current set plans. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to decline and at the time of writing.Resistance levels: 1.0498, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0376, 1.0253, 1.0131.USD/JPY: Japanese regulator is set to stabilize inflationThe yen made a successful attempt to recover value on the back of the weakening US currency, which was complemented by currency interventions on the initiative of the Central Bank of Japan, allowing the trading instrument to test 139.62.In his speech early last week, central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the monetary authorities' commitment to "dovish" monetary policy to support economic activity and achieve stability and sustainability in the fight against inflation, which has encouraged the government to raise wages that lagged three quarters in a row. The government will hold consultations with labor and business representatives in the spring and should reach an agreement on a 3.0% wage increase for employees, rather than the 2.0% increase that was previously planned. According to the plans of the members of the central bank's board, this option will be possible due to the reduction of the national inflation rate to the target of 1.5% at the background of the correction impulse in the cost of raw materials in the world.Support levels: 137.65, 132.86.Resistance levels: 140.80 and 145.00.AUD/USD: trend can change to positive"The bulls keep trying to break over the psychological threshold of 0.6725, wishing to take full advantage of the moment of the weak American currency.Australia's regulator at the end of its extreme monetary parameters meeting confirmed its intention to continue to actively raise the key indicator, however it noted that the degree of correction is closely linked to the incoming macroeconomic indicators and preliminary estimates of employment and price pressures. Officials had projected that consumer prices would slow to an upper 3.0% as early as December, but the value was later revised upward to 2025. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an increase in payroll indexation, which shows the average worker's pay, excluding bonuses, to 1.0% in the quarterly display, the highest since 2012 to the previous period, and average wages reached 3.1% versus 2.6% in the past, but behind a 7.3% increase in inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6900, 0.6990.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6290.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesOil market signalsThe benchmark Brent crude oil brand recorded positions below the level of 91.00.The price of "black gold" is again under the influence of "bears" on the data on decrease of weekly reserve in the USA. According to API (American Petroleum Institute), the value decreased by 5.833 million barrels against 5.618 million barrels increase a week earlier, while EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) reported that the indicator correction was -5.400 million barrels from 3.925 million barrels earlier. The rate of decline of the strategic reserve in the U.S. updated the 1984 value of 392.1 million barrels, indicating a steady demand for hydrocarbons, which is only confirmed by the report of Petro-Logistics, which is a service to track the movement of oil tankers. As it follows from the statistics, there has been a decline in crude supplies to the cartel countries since the beginning of this month. The service analysts expect the negative indicators to increase by the end of November and the correction dynamics for exports to 1.0 million barrels per day, which meets the OPEC+ targets of reducing production capacity by 2.0 million bpd, set a week earlier in Vienna.Support levels: 89.20, 82.87.Resistance levels: 94.00, ...
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Articles about financial markets

U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...
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"Ghost Armada": how does Iran circumvent sanctions on oil trade?
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, \ In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
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Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Oil prices rise after the end of the OPEC+2 meeting Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...
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