USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and ...
GBP/USD: the market is preparing for a report on inflation in BritainThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2633 mark, showing a decline against the background of the continued strengthening of the US currency. The dynamics of the pair remains uncertain, due to the growing volatility ahead of key macroeconomic events.Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of inflation data in the UK, scheduled for Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 1.7% to 2.2%, exceeding the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%. This may strengthen the arguments for postponing interest rate cuts, especially given the current situation in the real estate market. Data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. indicate an increase in the average interest rate on a five-year fixed mortgage to 5.4955% against 5.4205% a week earlier, which increases the burden on households.Additional pressure on the UK economy is exerted by the tax increase announced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This decision complicates the choice for the Bank of England: either to maintain a "dovish" position to support business, or to strengthen measures to control inflation. Last week, Catherine Mann, a member of the board of the Bank of England, spoke out for the need to hold the current rate in order to reduce the risks of falling purchasing power, including against the background of possible changes in global trade policy after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2890.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan does not abandon the tight monetary policyThe USD/JPY pair shows a correction within the framework of an uptrend, trading near the 154.63 mark, which is associated with the strengthening of the position of the US currency against the background of increased expectations regarding monetary policy.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, commented on the situation for the first time after the conclusion of the US presidential election. He stressed that the regulator is ready to consider the possibility of further interest rate increases if key economic indicators meet forecasts. Ueda also noted that the current rate decision will depend on external factors, including the outcome of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. According to estimates, about 55% of experts believe that the Bank of Japan may raise the rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year, especially if the Fed decides to keep its rate at the same level. However, some analysts believe that the Japanese regulator may take a wait-and-see position due to potential risks.Among such risks, there is a slowdown in economic growth in China, which is an important trading partner of Japan, as well as the possibility of introducing new tariff barriers by the administration of US President Donald Trump. These measures may put pressure on Japan's export sector, which could strengthen the weakening of the yen. Nevertheless, despite external factors, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its commitment to a "hawkish" approach, trying to maintain economic stability in the face of external challenges.Resistance levels: 155.40, 158.30.Support levels: 153.60, 150.70.AUD/USD: the pair is moving towards an annual lowThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend, trading near the 0.6464 mark. Despite attempts by the Australian dollar to strengthen under the influence of favorable macroeconomic statistics, it is still close to its summer lows, reflecting continued pressure from global factors.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October. Employment growth amounted to 36.8 thousand, increasing the total figure to 14.537 million people. Full-time employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and part-time employment added 6.2 thousand, reaching 4.499 million. At the same time, the number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand, reaching 623.5 thousand people. The employment-to-total population ratio remained at 64.4%, while the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. These data indicate the stability of the labor market, but at the same time reflect the limited pace of its growth.Experts from the National Bank of Australia have revised their expectations regarding the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If earlier it was predicted that the regulator would start lowering interest rates in February, now analysts believe that monetary policy easing is postponed until at least May. This is due to the continued tense situation in the labor market and the risks of a re-acceleration of inflation. Such an approach by the RBA can support the national currency in the long term, but in the short term, the Australian dollar remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and global economic uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 18, gold quotes show an upward trend, trading around $2,591.16 per troy ounce, which is 1.2% higher than the previous session.The rise in gold prices is due to the suspension of the strengthening of the US dollar, which rose by 1.6% last week, but has now stabilized. The weakness of the dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Investors are waiting for speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week to get more information about the future trajectory of interest rates. According to forecasts, the Fed's rhetoric in December will be less mild, which may prepare the market for a possible rate hold at the current level in January. At least seven Fed representatives are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, US retail sales data for October showed an increase of 0.3%, which exceeds analysts' expectations and indicates the stability of the economy.Geopolitical events also have an impact on the gold market. The US presidential administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, which is a significant change in US policy and may increase tensions in the region. Such events traditionally increase the demand for safe assets, which include gold.Resistance levels: $2,600, $2,620.Support levels: $2,580, ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
USD/JPY Fundamental analysis on November 4, 2024Look for someone who benefits from it. Japan does not need either a strong or a weak yen. In the first case, exporters face difficulties, in the second, inflation is rising, making imports more expensive, which is extremely undesirable for a country dependent on energy resources. Japan is striving for a stable currency, and the verbal interventions of the government of the land of the Rising Sun, together with the moderately hawkish position of the Bank of Japan, helped to contain the growth of USD/JPY.Although on paper, the yen may seem strong due to the rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Of course, the speed of monetary restriction has a decisive effect on USD/JPY, but the Central Bank is in no hurry to strengthen the course of monetary policy. If the rate increase is slow, the difference in Japanese and US bond yields is still significant, money continues to flow from Asia to North America, weakening the yen in forex currency trading. The uncertainty of the political situation caused by the loss of the parliamentary majority by the Liberal Democratic Party led to an increase in the dollar exchange rate above 153.8.Nevertheless, Kazuo Ueda was able to calm the excitement of speculators, saying that political changes would not affect the Bank of Japan's policy on the overnight rate. The Bank will continue to make decisions based on wage growth and inflation forecasts, which they expect to reach 2.5% in the 2024/2025 financial year and 1.9% in the next two years. These indicators indicate the intention to continue the normalization of monetary policy.The futures market has raised the probability of the BoJ's next move in January from 63% to 69%, although it is possible that the cost of borrowing will rise in December. Ueda noted that the Bank of Japan needs less time to assess the economic outlook than expected. At the same time, strong indicators in the United States are pushing the BoJ to take more active action. If the Fed suspends easing in January, Japan will probably raise rates too, without fear of strengthening the yen's position.Thus, the verbal interventions of the Japanese government and signals from the BoJ about the imminent tightening of monetary policy helped stabilize USD/JPY. However, the effect may be temporary. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, the yield on US Treasury bonds will increase, which will strengthen the dollar.The rise in popularity of Kamala Harris before the elections plays into the hands of Japan, as speculators take profits on the dollar, keeping USD/JPY from further growth.In my opinion, the fate of the yen largely depends on the outcome of the US presidential election. If the Republicans occupy the White House, USD/JPY may reach the level of 155.5, which will create conditions for purchases. The victory of the Democrats, on the contrary, will signal the sale of EUR/JPY with targets at the levels of 163.2 and ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...