Trading signals and online forecasts USD/JPY

GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating in anticipation of the latest statisticsThe GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate correction, holding near the 1.3112 mark. The decline in the US currency creates additional support for the pound, while the British currency remains stable due to a number of external factors.The incoming UK macro statistics did not cause a pronounced reaction from market participants. According to Nationwide Building Society, housing prices remained unchanged month-on-month in March, despite a projected 0.2% increase and an annual rate of 3.9%. Traders are focusing on the publication of final data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator is expected to rise from 51.0 to 53.2 points, and the composite index from 50.5 to 52.0 points, which may reflect a recovery in business confidence.Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) continues to decline, trading near the 102.70 mark and updating the annual low below the 103.00 level. Despite the positive labor market, pressure on the dollar is increasing due to the escalation of trade policy. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new package of tariffs that will affect all states that have taken retaliatory measures: duties for China will amount to 34.0%, for the European Union — 20.0%, and for Japan — 24.0%. The White House is also considering the idea of a mandatory minimum trade tax of 10.0% for all partner countries. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously negotiated the possible exclusion of the kingdom from this list, but on the eve he admitted that it would not be possible to avoid duties, and the country should prepare for tougher conditions. In 2024, the share of trade with the United States reached 17.0% of the total foreign economic turnover of the United Kingdom.Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3420.Support levels: 1.3030, 1.2760.USD/JPY: bearish signals are intensifyingThe USD/JPY pair continues to move within the framework of a downward correction, holding near the level of 147.26 against the background of weak trading activity on the yen due to increased global uncertainty.On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about increased trade restrictions from the United States. As it became known, additional fees will be added to the existing duties on steel and aluminum imports, as a result of which the cumulative rate on Japanese products sent to the United States may reach 24.0%. Ueda stressed that this issue will be raised at the upcoming G20 summit in Washington, and it is too early to talk about the consequences for domestic consumption and investment before it is held, instructing analysts to conduct a detailed assessment and develop preventive support measures. Against the background of this rhetoric, macroeconomic indicators remained in the shadows: net purchases of foreign bonds decreased to -5.9 billion yen from -233.7 billion yen a week earlier, and foreign investments in Japanese stocks amounted to - 450.4 billion yen after -1.2 trillion yen.Resistance levels: 148.60, 152.40.Support levels: 146.50, 143.20.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair is showing a steady decline in morning trading, continuing the downward movement that began at the end of the previous week, when silver prices failed to stay near the local highs of October 23. The instrument is currently trading around the 33.20 mark, while investors are carefully assessing the consequences of the latest decision by US President Donald Trump to impose large-scale retaliatory tariffs against all states that restrict access to American products on their markets.According to the White House's initiative, the base duty rate is set at 10.0%, while mirror measures will be applied in an amount proportional to restrictions from other countries. For example, according to Trump, if the European Union withholds a tax of 39.0%, the United States will impose 20.0% in response. Specific values have already been published: China — 34.0%, Taiwan — 32.0%, Switzerland — 31.0%, Great Britain — 10.0%. Additionally, 25.0% tariffs on all imported cars will come into force on April 3, and on component parts from May 3. Market participants fear that these measures could provoke a large-scale deterioration in trade relations and create serious risks for the global economy, including causing a new wave of pressure on the US dollar. It also poses potential threats to the industrial sector, especially given the high proportion of silver in production chains — about 70% of the total supply is used for industrial purposes. The main supplies come from Canada and Mexico, which have already imposed mirror duties on American goods, including silver, totaling 30.0 billion Canadian dollars.Despite the current risks, the silver market remains positive in the long term. According to the Silver Institute, global demand for the metal may reach historic highs in 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of the solar panel and electric vehicle industries. Physical mining is also showing steady growth: in 2024, First Majestic Silver Corp. It achieved a record production volume of 10.3 million ounces at the Santa Elena field, which is 7% higher than the results of the previous year.Resistance levels: 33.42, 33.75, 34.26, 34.57.Support levels: 33.00, 32.72, 32.27, 32.00.Oil market analysisDuring trading in Asia, WTI Crude Oil prices continue to decline, developing a downward movement that began on Tuesday. Currently, quotes are trying to overcome the support level around $ 69.45 per barrel, while the US republican administration's trade strategy has a significant impact on market dynamics. Investors are reacting with concern to statements from the White House, where protectionist initiatives are intensifying that could affect global energy flows.Additional pressure on the oil market was exerted by news about the possible introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil supplies. A group of American senators has proposed the establishment of ultra-high tariffs of 500% on imports from countries that continue to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, in case Moscow, in their opinion, delays the process of reaching peace agreements on the Ukrainian conflict. For comparison, similar secondary measures in force against Venezuela involve a tax of only 25%, which underlines the potential severity of the new sanctions pressure.The decline in prices is also supported by negative statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): oil reserves for the week ended March 28 unexpectedly increased by 6.165 million barrels, despite analysts' expectations of a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. A week earlier, stocks, on the contrary, decreased by 3.341 million barrels. An additional factor of instability was the situation around Kazakhstan, which has been exceeding OPEC+ production quotas for the third month in a row. In March, production in the country reached 1.880 million barrels per day with a quota of 1.468 million. The overall growth is attributed to high production activity at the Tengiz field and stable loading by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. In 2023, the country reached a historic record for total oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million tons per month, equivalent to 2.17 million barrels per day. All this puts additional pressure on OPEC+'s attempts to stabilize the market.Resistance levels: 69.50, 70.00, 70.34, 71.00.Support levels: 69.00, 68.25, 67.50, ...

During Thursday's Asian session, USD/JPY is showing a moderate correction, retreating from recent highs. The pair is stabilizing near the level of 150.15. After active growth the day before, the market switched to standby mode before the publication of important macroeconomic data that may set the direction of movement for the coming sessions.The main attention of market participants is focused on inflation data in Tokyo (23:30 GMT), a key indicator for the Bank of Japan in assessing the prospects for monetary policy changes. The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is expected to remain at 2.2% in March, while the broader index may reach 2.9%.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, recently confirmed that the regulator is ready to consider raising interest rates if inflationary dynamics become stable. However, the February increase in the nationwide CPI to 3.7% and the baseline to 3.0% was largely due to temporary factors such as rising import costs. Ueda expects core inflation to approach the 2.0% target only in the second half of fiscal year 2026-2027, which pushes back the prospect of policy tightening.Today we should pay attention to the American statistics- Base PCE index (14:30 GMT+2) — expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (16:00 GMT+2) — forecast to remain at 57.9 pointsYesterday's data on durable goods orders in February showed an unexpected increase (0.9% versus the expected -1.0%), which temporarily supported the dollar.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the Daily, the main forex indicators give the following signals:- Bollinger bands indicate a moderate uptrend with an expansion of the price range- The MACD indicator retains a buy signal, testing the zero mark- Stochastic is rolling back from the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term correctionTrading recommendations1. Selling: A breakdown below 150.00 opens the way to 149.09. Stop loss is 150.50.2. Purchases: A rebound from 150.00 followed by a rise above 150.50 may lead to a test of 151.50. Stop loss is ...

USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, ...

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, ...

The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...