GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating in anticipation of the latest statisticsThe GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate correction, holding near the 1.3112 mark. The decline in the US currency creates additional support for the pound, while the British currency remains stable due to a number of external factors.The incoming UK macro statistics did not cause a pronounced reaction from market participants. According to Nationwide Building Society, housing prices remained unchanged month-on-month in March, despite a projected 0.2% increase and an annual rate of 3.9%. Traders are focusing on the publication of final data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator is expected to rise from 51.0 to 53.2 points, and the composite index from 50.5 to 52.0 points, which may reflect a recovery in business confidence.Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) continues to decline, trading near the 102.70 mark and updating the annual low below the 103.00 level. Despite the positive labor market, pressure on the dollar is increasing due to the escalation of trade policy. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new package of tariffs that will affect all states that have taken retaliatory measures: duties for China will amount to 34.0%, for the European Union — 20.0%, and for Japan — 24.0%. The White House is also considering the idea of a mandatory minimum trade tax of 10.0% for all partner countries. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously negotiated the possible exclusion of the kingdom from this list, but on the eve he admitted that it would not be possible to avoid duties, and the country should prepare for tougher conditions. In 2024, the share of trade with the United States reached 17.0% of the total foreign economic turnover of the United Kingdom.Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3420.Support levels: 1.3030, 1.2760.USD/JPY: bearish signals are intensifyingThe USD/JPY pair continues to move within the framework of a downward correction, holding near the level of 147.26 against the background of weak trading activity on the yen due to increased global uncertainty.On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about increased trade restrictions from the United States. As it became known, additional fees will be added to the existing duties on steel and aluminum imports, as a result of which the cumulative rate on Japanese products sent to the United States may reach 24.0%. Ueda stressed that this issue will be raised at the upcoming G20 summit in Washington, and it is too early to talk about the consequences for domestic consumption and investment before it is held, instructing analysts to conduct a detailed assessment and develop preventive support measures. Against the background of this rhetoric, macroeconomic indicators remained in the shadows: net purchases of foreign bonds decreased to -5.9 billion yen from -233.7 billion yen a week earlier, and foreign investments in Japanese stocks amounted to - 450.4 billion yen after -1.2 trillion yen.Resistance levels: 148.60, 152.40.Support levels: 146.50, 143.20.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair is showing a steady decline in morning trading, continuing the downward movement that began at the end of the previous week, when silver prices failed to stay near the local highs of October 23. The instrument is currently trading around the 33.20 mark, while investors are carefully assessing the consequences of the latest decision by US President Donald Trump to impose large-scale retaliatory tariffs against all states that restrict access to American products on their markets.According to the White House's initiative, the base duty rate is set at 10.0%, while mirror measures will be applied in an amount proportional to restrictions from other countries. For example, according to Trump, if the European Union withholds a tax of 39.0%, the United States will impose 20.0% in response. Specific values have already been published: China — 34.0%, Taiwan — 32.0%, Switzerland — 31.0%, Great Britain — 10.0%. Additionally, 25.0% tariffs on all imported cars will come into force on April 3, and on component parts from May 3. Market participants fear that these measures could provoke a large-scale deterioration in trade relations and create serious risks for the global economy, including causing a new wave of pressure on the US dollar. It also poses potential threats to the industrial sector, especially given the high proportion of silver in production chains — about 70% of the total supply is used for industrial purposes. The main supplies come from Canada and Mexico, which have already imposed mirror duties on American goods, including silver, totaling 30.0 billion Canadian dollars.Despite the current risks, the silver market remains positive in the long term. According to the Silver Institute, global demand for the metal may reach historic highs in 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of the solar panel and electric vehicle industries. Physical mining is also showing steady growth: in 2024, First Majestic Silver Corp. It achieved a record production volume of 10.3 million ounces at the Santa Elena field, which is 7% higher than the results of the previous year.Resistance levels: 33.42, 33.75, 34.26, 34.57.Support levels: 33.00, 32.72, 32.27, 32.00.Oil market analysisDuring trading in Asia, WTI Crude Oil prices continue to decline, developing a downward movement that began on Tuesday. Currently, quotes are trying to overcome the support level around $ 69.45 per barrel, while the US republican administration's trade strategy has a significant impact on market dynamics. Investors are reacting with concern to statements from the White House, where protectionist initiatives are intensifying that could affect global energy flows.Additional pressure on the oil market was exerted by news about the possible introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil supplies. A group of American senators has proposed the establishment of ultra-high tariffs of 500% on imports from countries that continue to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, in case Moscow, in their opinion, delays the process of reaching peace agreements on the Ukrainian conflict. For comparison, similar secondary measures in force against Venezuela involve a tax of only 25%, which underlines the potential severity of the new sanctions pressure.The decline in prices is also supported by negative statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): oil reserves for the week ended March 28 unexpectedly increased by 6.165 million barrels, despite analysts' expectations of a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. A week earlier, stocks, on the contrary, decreased by 3.341 million barrels. An additional factor of instability was the situation around Kazakhstan, which has been exceeding OPEC+ production quotas for the third month in a row. In March, production in the country reached 1.880 million barrels per day with a quota of 1.468 million. The overall growth is attributed to high production activity at the Tengiz field and stable loading by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. In 2023, the country reached a historic record for total oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million tons per month, equivalent to 2.17 million barrels per day. All this puts additional pressure on OPEC+'s attempts to stabilize the market.Resistance levels: 69.50, 70.00, 70.34, 71.00.Support levels: 69.00, 68.25, 67.50, ...
USD/JPY analysis on April 8, 2025During Thursday's Asian session, the US dollar, after a recent pullback from September lows. It is recovering moderately against the Japanese yen, testing the level of 142.65. The movement takes place against the background of the release of contradictory data on Japanese foreign trade.March exports showed a noticeable slowdown to 3.9% after February's 11.4%, falling short of the 4.5% expected by the market. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 2.0% after the previous decline, and the trade surplus amounted to 544.1 billion yen, which was higher than consensus forecasts.The Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook remains cautious. At the upcoming meeting on April 30 - May 1, the regulator is likely to keep the rate at the current level of 0.50% and may revise down economic growth forecasts. Central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed his intention to continue the gradual normalization of policy, although he acknowledged that trade tensions could delay the achievement of the 2% inflation target.According to preliminary data, the current US-Japanese trade negotiations are showing "good progress." After the temporary cancellation of duties for 90 days, Japan is faced with a base rate of 10%, while maintaining significant 25% car export fees - a key item of Japanese supplies.Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on American statistics on applications for unemployment benefits and building permits. A moderate increase in the number of applications for benefits and a slight decrease in building permits are expected.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe technical picture confirms the downtrend, despite the current recovery. The indicators show mixed signals: the MACD shows weak signs of a reversal while maintaining an overall bearish mood, and the stochastic oscillator, being in the oversold zone, has not yet given clear signals of a trend change.For traders considering further weakening of the pair, the key entry level remains a breakdown of 142.00 down with the prospect of moving to 140.00. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 143.00.An alternative scenario assumes the development of corrective growth with a breakout of the level of 143.35, which opens the way to testing 145.00. In this case, we move the stop loss to ...
USD/JPY analysis on April 8, 2025At Tuesday's Asian trading, USD/JPY showed mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 147.70. The US currency managed to partially recover after a sharp drop at the end of last week, but the fundamental background remains difficult. Investors continue to assess the risks of an economic crisis caused by a new wave of US trade restrictions. Analysts estimate the probability of a recession in the American economy this year at 60%.The Trump administration has imposed differentiated import duties ranging from 10% to 49%. A minimum rate of 10% is set for Japanese goods, which creates serious problems for key sectors of the economy, especially the automotive industry. The Japanese authorities are actively looking for ways to mitigate the effects of these measures.In its report, the Bank of Japan expressed concern that US trade policy could disrupt the cycle of wage growth and consumer prices, which are key factors for further monetary policy tightening. Kazuhiro Masaki, the manager of the Osaka Combat Department, noted the uniqueness of the current situation, emphasizing the difficulty of assessing the consequences due to its political nature. These factors will be carefully considered at the upcoming meeting on April 30 - May 1, where the rate is likely to remain at 0.5%.Today's data for Japan turned out to be mixed. The Eco Watchers current situation index dropped slightly to 45.1 points, but the balance of payments showed a significant surplus of 4060.7 billion yen, significantly exceeding expectations. Tomorrow's US Federal Reserve minutes may provide additional clarity to the monetary outlook.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe technical picture remains contradictory. The Bollinger indicator shows a moderate decline with an expanding range. The MACD is showing signs of an upward reversal, but it retains a bearish signal. Stochastic is in the middle zone, indicating a short-term bullish potential.Trading recommendationsThe breakdown of the 148.00 level up opens the prospect of growth to 149.09 with the protection of the position at 147.50.In the case of a rebound from 148.00 and a breakout of 147.00 down, it is advisable to consider short positions with a target of 145.00. In this case, we set the stop loss at ...
During Thursday's Asian session, USD/JPY is showing a moderate correction, retreating from recent highs. The pair is stabilizing near the level of 150.15. After active growth the day before, the market switched to standby mode before the publication of important macroeconomic data that may set the direction of movement for the coming sessions.The main attention of market participants is focused on inflation data in Tokyo (23:30 GMT), a key indicator for the Bank of Japan in assessing the prospects for monetary policy changes. The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is expected to remain at 2.2% in March, while the broader index may reach 2.9%.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, recently confirmed that the regulator is ready to consider raising interest rates if inflationary dynamics become stable. However, the February increase in the nationwide CPI to 3.7% and the baseline to 3.0% was largely due to temporary factors such as rising import costs. Ueda expects core inflation to approach the 2.0% target only in the second half of fiscal year 2026-2027, which pushes back the prospect of policy tightening.Today we should pay attention to the American statistics- Base PCE index (14:30 GMT+2) — expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (16:00 GMT+2) — forecast to remain at 57.9 pointsYesterday's data on durable goods orders in February showed an unexpected increase (0.9% versus the expected -1.0%), which temporarily supported the dollar.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the Daily, the main forex indicators give the following signals:- Bollinger bands indicate a moderate uptrend with an expansion of the price range- The MACD indicator retains a buy signal, testing the zero mark- Stochastic is rolling back from the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term correctionTrading recommendations1. Selling: A breakdown below 150.00 opens the way to 149.09. Stop loss is 150.50.2. Purchases: A rebound from 150.00 followed by a rise above 150.50 may lead to a test of 151.50. Stop loss is ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...