GBPUSD: UK economic outlook assessed by the governmentTrading instrument GBPUSD is showing weak dynamics, trying to win back the losses of the last two sessions, in the backdrop of which the asset updated the local minimum of March 10. The pair traded around 1.2080, continuing to grow in anticipation of new stimulus for the correction.Earlier the head of financial authorities of the Kingdom Jerem Hunt provided the national budget for parliamentarians to study in order to stabilize economic indicators. Based on estimates based on OBR calculations, given the significant stabilization of energy costs reduction on an annual basis GDP showed a correction of only -0.2% instead of the -1.5% expected the day before, and will grow 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. Analysts expect the index to adjust for growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, which rules out the economy going into a technical recession this year, as expected the day before. The consumer inflation index should decline to 2.9% by early next year, which is well below its peak value of 10.1%. Moreover, the spring budget includes a bailout package for families who are prevented from returning to work by rising child-support costs. Meanwhile, a lifetime cap on tax-free retirement contributions is announced for April.Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2140, 1.2176, 1.2236.Support levels: 1.2054, 1.2000, 1.1933, 1.1875.USDJPY: Bank of Japan estimates the inflation outlook for the fiscal year 2024The trade shows a moderate decline in the downside momentum from earlier and the yen is limited upside due to weak macro statistics from Japan.For instance, the index industrial production for January showed a decline of 3.1% from the previous -2.3%, with the market estimating the figure at -2.3%. Monthly decline momentum accelerated to -5.3% from -4.6%, disappointing experts who expected neutral dynamics. Investors also noted rising exports for February by 6.5% after strengthening by 3.5% in the previous month at market estimates of 7.1%. Imports strengthened by 8.3% over the same period, significantly behind the previous month's 17.5%, while the forecast was for a positive 12.2%. A notable recovery in Japan's exports significantly narrowed the trade deficit for February to -897.7 billion yen from -3498.6 billion yen, surpassing experts' estimates of -1069.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 134.00, 134.54, 135.57, 136.50.Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.00.USDCAD: The pair is testing the level 1.3750.During the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USDCAD shows a moderate decline at the level of 1.3750.Earlier, the U.S. dollar showed significant strengthening, allowing to fully offset losses from the beginning of the week amid reports on the liquidation of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which caused a barrage of criticism from investors, collapsing the quotes. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, in turn, hastened to stabilize the situation, promising guaranteed payments for all lost deposits and announcing additional measures for emergency funding of the banking sector in order to avoid similar events in the future. Economists agree that the financial authority will take a break in the cycle of systemic tightening of monetary parameters and refrain from the decision to strengthen the interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the meeting announced for next week.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900 and 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600.Gold PricesThe precious metal is actively strengthening for the second week in a row, making a new high of the last two months, reaching the level of 1937.50. Gold increased its attractiveness among investors, as a hedge asset based on two factors: the developing banking crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Investors are most concerned about the likely lack of liquidity in the banking sector, because the liquidation of Signature Bank and SVB may provoke a similar process around the world, followed by a decrease in the volume of loans issued, business activity will noticeably decrease, and the global economy will come under serious pressure. According to investors, such concerns are not unfounded, especially since a negative trend is beginning to be observed in the eurozone, ignoring the joint statements of officials at various levels about the fact that the banking sector is protected and the stability of the financial system is at a reliable level. During the last week, UniCredit Group, FinecoBank S.p.A., Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Credit Suisse Group actively lost positions in the markets, and the latter was at risk of bankruptcy, which forced the Swiss Central Bank to allocate an additional 50.0 billion. francs to stimulate the institution. The general trend across the regions allows for the manifestation of a crisis situation in the short term, despite the efforts of the authorities to stabilize the situation, and investors will have to look for more stable assets, among which gold becomes more attractive.Resistance levels: 1937.50, 1968.75, 2000.00.Support levels: 1875.00, 1843.75, ...
AUDUSD: Short-term sideways trend appears in the pairThe AUDUSD currency pair is trading in a moderate decline, resuming the dynamics of the "bears", having completed the two-day growth by the end of the previous week. The pair is in the area of 0.6700 descending correction, while the US dollar is under the pressure of the macroeconomic data and waiting for the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve's meeting, which is announced for the middle of the current week.Thus, analysts recorded a correction momentum for March consumer environment from the University of Michigan to 63.4 points from 67.0 points with a neutral market expectation, and industrial production for February showed zero growth, contrary to the forecasted decline to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market participants are predicting a hawkish course on monetary parameters from the Fed and a strengthening of the interest rate by 0.25% to reach the psychological threshold of the target of 5.00%, which may encourage regulator officials to take a wait-and-see break amid growing risks to the banking sector.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500.USDCAD: The asset expects new incentives in the marketDuring the Asian trading the currency pair USDCAD shows a slight increase, holding positions in the area of 1.3720.Investors keep low dynamics on transactions, wishing to wait for new stimulus to activate the market. Experts continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the US FRS officials which will be held on Wednesday. They will be able to see the concrete decisions on the interest rate and to adjust their estimates regarding the further steps on the monetary policy. The current expectations foresee the increase of the index by 0,25% up to the target value of 5.00% while 26.0% of experts let the neutral dynamics at the current level of 4.75% be maintained. Recall that the cycle of incremental adjustment of the cost of credit borrowing faced significant challenges against the background of the evidence of the crisis in the national banking sector. Thus, the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank led the Treasury Department and the Fed to search for additional tools to stimulate economic stability, provoking a sharp increase in the agency's balance sheet and additional spending. The crisis was managed to buy, but investor sentiment did not ignore this fact, now they are concerned that the correction of the key indicator will only increase the shakiness of the situation.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3535.USDJPY: Experts are waiting to see the inflation dataThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing moderate strengthening, set to recover Friday's losses, which caused an update of the local low of February 14. The stock is in the area of 132.00, continuing to rise, but the "bulls" are very limited in potential.At the end of the week investors are waiting for the consumer price data for February. Preliminary estimates suggest that Japan's inflation rate will fall to 4.1% from 4.3% and the core indicator outside of the food group cost sector has a good chance of showing 3.1%, which is heavily inferior to January's value of 4.2% amid government subsidies for gas and electricity costs mitigating the sharp rise in households' living standards. Moreover, investors are waiting for Friday's statistics on Japanese business sentiment index, preliminary forecasts of which allow for a correction to 47.5 points from 47.7 points by Jibun Bank.Resistance levels: 133.00, 134.00, 134.54, 135.57.Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.00, 129.39.Gold analysisThe precious metal is actively moving up towards 1975.0, taking advantage of a window of opportunity as the U.S. financial system is under severe pressure.Last week was marked by the bankruptcy of several major banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, which holds one of the top 30 credit institutions in the country. The financial uncertainty caused mass deposit closures by depositors, intensifying liquidity shortages, and the US Federal Reserve embarked on a stimulus package allowing banks to borrow from the regulator without an upper liquidity ceiling. Thus, last week the financial sector borrowed a record $300.0 billion from the regulator. By comparison, borrowing amounted to only $111.0 billion during the peak period of the 2008 crisis.Resistance levels: 1990.0, 2060.0.Support levels: 1950.0, ...
Forex analytics on USDJPY for March 16USDJPY remains in a narrow price range on Thursday, consolidating after a sharp decline.The macroeconomic statistics, published in Japan, had no effect on the dynamics of the asset. Industrial production in January lost 3.1% (y/y), which was worse than analysts' forecasts. In monthly terms the fall is even more obvious (-4.6%). At the same time, the volume of exports in February increased considerably (+6.5%), though analysts forecasted +7.1%. The volume of imports increased by 8.1%. Indicators of import-export operations helped to reduce the trade balance deficit in the Country of the Rising Sun from -3498.6 billion yen to -897.7 billion yen.The previous day the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting were published, according to which the regulator decided to keep the course of ultra-soft policy. Members of the board think that tougher course will interfere with economic recovery, which has just started to give positive signals. Moreover, Japan has decided to adjust the wage level, although experts believe it will not be enough to support the citizens in the context of inflation reaching a 41-year high of 4.0%.Technical analysis for USDJPYOn the daily chart a downward rectangle pattern may be formed. Bollinger Bands are turned down, MACD is decreasing in the negative range. Stochastic oscillator has reversed upward and is out of the oversold area.After a confident breakdown of 134.00 resistance, we will open long positions with a target at 135.57. Stop-loss is set at 133.20.Upon fall of the pair below support at 132.00, we will start selling with take profit at 130.00. Stop-loss is set at ...
EURUSD: the bulls got a weak advantage in the pairEURUSD is trading in a weak growth trying to develop the upward trend from the middle of the previous week. The asset reached the level of 1.0750 continuing to strengthen, having updated the local maximum of February 14.Trading continues at a moderate pace as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the ECB meeting due on Thursday. Recall that at the end of the meeting analysts expect to see correction of the interest rate by 0.50% and increase of the key rate to 3.5% per annum, and then do not rule out that the regulator will give priority to a pause for evaluation of the measures approved earlier. By Friday, March 17, experts expect the publication of February data on the consumer price index, which may influence further steps of the European Central Bank on the issue of monetary parameters in the near future. Based on estimates, inflation will add 0.8% on a monthly basis and 8.5% on an annual basis, continuing well above the department's target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.NZDUSD: the asset is testing the local highsThe NZDUSD trading instrument displays mixed momentum, holding in the area of 0.6230. The currency pair retains the potential for upward dynamics, which was formed the previous week and gave an opportunity to update the local maximum of March 1. Meanwhile, bullish factors caused by the liquidation of several US banking institutions - Signature Bank and Silicon Valley, by the beginning of the week, are gradually losing their influence. The U.S. stock market showed earlier correctional growth, and the shares of many companies failed to recover the significant loss of positions from the beginning of the week, despite the announcement of the emergency stimulation program for the banking sector from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the rhetoric of the country leader Joe Biden, which gave signals to investors that the situation in the economy is under control.The day before the publication came the macroeconomic statistics block from the USA, which also helped the market stability. For instance, consumer prices for February slowed to 6.0% from 6.4% and the core value slowed from 5.6% to 5.5%, just as analysts had predicted. Weakening inflation momentum going forward will allow the Fed to avoid increasing the pace of borrowing cost corrections so as not to exacerbate the situation of a possible banking and financial crisis in the country.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100 and 0.6049.USDJPY: Japanese regulator keeps ultra-soft monetary policyNegative dynamics in the US dollar allows the USDJPY to correct at 134.51."The Japanese" intends to strengthen the positive dynamics against the background of the publication of the final minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan, as there were no fundamental changes in the monetary parameters, but there was a separate correction. Thus, the Bank of Japan announced an additional auction of Treasury securities, and investors will see the offer of 10-year bonds at a rate of 0.5% on each business day thanks to the operations with rate fixing. Moreover, the regulator itself will increase the volume on Treasury securities in the market at the announced rate, continuing to buy back exchange-traded real estate trusts and ETF funds, topping out at 180.0 billion yen and 12.0 trillion yen respectively, supplementing operations by buying back corporate-segment bonds to return their outstanding value to 3.0 trillion yen, as it did before the covid-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 135.60, 137.90.Support levels: 133.20, 130.50.Crude Oil market analysisHaving completed the downward dynamic from the beginning of the week which helped it to reach the local minimum of December 12, today, March 15, in the morning trading the oil grade WTI is quoted by the correction, being at the level of 72.50, which is supported by technical factors.Pressure on the asset stems from growing concerns over the prospects for the global and American economies. Thus, the closing of some banking institutions in the U.S. signaled the markets about the vulnerability of the banking sector in particular and the financial system as a whole to the regular monetary policy tightening and the market uncertainty. In turn, the Treasury Department announced emergency stimulus measures for banks, supporting depositors, thereby assuring that their deposits remaining in the accounts of liquidated institutions will be paid to depositors, while the amounts in the accounts at SVB bank mostly exceeded the insurance limit.Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 76.00, 78.00.Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 68.15, ...
AUDUSD: bears have intercepted the initiative in the pairAfter completing its upward trend the day before, the AUDUSD trading instrument has shown a moderate correction, testing 0.6659.Pressure on the pair at the trading session on Tuesday is given by the uncertain macroeconomic statistics block, according to which the business confidence index of the National Bank of Australia for February showed a decline to -4.0 points from 6.0 points with the forecast to see the zero dynamics. The position of the corresponding indicator of conditions adjusted to 17.0 points from 18.0 points with the forecast to strengthen to 21.0 points. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for March posted zero growth and a 6.9% decline in the month before, with the market expecting a 0.1% gain.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500, 0.6450.USDJPY: Japanese economy continues to be under pressureAccording to the information from the trading floors, the USDJPY is slightly strengthening and has again tested the 134.00 level. The pair is regaining ground after ending a three-day "bearish" rally, which was followed by an update of the local highs of February 14.The Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation. Despite consumer prices in December reaching a maximum of over 40 years at 4.0%, surpassing the target set by the national regulator, and government debt at 1.0 trillion yen or 266% of gross domestic product in January, the Bank of Japan continues to keep monetary parameters on the current super soft vector, including keeping the interest rate in negative territory, fearing the onset of deflation. Officials agree that rising prices do not have a sustainable trend and expect inflation to lose its potential by the end of 2023. But a recent Center for Economic Research in Japan forecast a seasonally adjusted GDP figure for January that was down 0.6% from December, the biggest drop since August 2022. Economists argue that a continuation of the current trend will cause the national economy to lose 3.4% for the year already in Q1.Resistance levels: 134.00, 134.54, 135.57, 136.50.Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.00.NZDUSD: the position is in the trend of the head & shoulders reversal pattern.A sharp weakening of the US dollar allowed the pair NZDUSD to go to the local growth at 0.6206.The positive dynamics was caused by the macroeconomic statistics, based on which the food products group increased by 1.5% in February, taking into account the seasonal fluctuations, showing 2.1%. A significant strengthening of the cost of fruits and vegetables by 5.6%, soft drinks by 1.6%, meat and poultry - 0.6%. Meanwhile, tourism industry statistics showed an increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting New Zealand in January to 265,400, surpassing the same month in 2022 by 261,400.Support levels: 0.6156, 0.6000.Resistance levels: 0.6265 and 0.6400.Gold analysisThe precious metal is quoted in decline, because the "bulls" lost potential in the last three trading sessions, which allowed the asset to update the local high of February 3. At the moment, the gold is held around 1900.00, continuing its decline.Japan also shows upward dynamics, where the bank metal managed earlier to update the level of 66.67, having surpassed the level of the previous week by 32.0 yen. As it follows from the reports of industrial producer using precious metals Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK, the upward trend signals about the uncertainty of market participants about the further stability of the "American" amid the collapse of several banking institutions - Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which pushes investors to redirect their capital to more secure instruments of the market. The day before, holding a press conference, the US President Joe Biden announced his appeal to Congressmen with a petition to tighten regulatory measures in the industry in order to "minimize the probability of recurrence of bank failures". At the same time, the Fed and Treasury Department officials launched an emergency aid program for credit institutions, which will stimulate the sale of treasury securities at par, thereby increasing the necessary level of liquidity.Resistance levels: 1914.44, 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22.Support levels: 1900.00, 1878.84, 1869.49, ...
EURUSD: Sanctions against Russia hit EU gas and electricity pricesDuring the morning session EURUSD is showing the corrective dynamics from March 8, where the asset held the local lows of January 6, and is now testing 1.0585.Head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen said that the decline in energy imports from Russia on the background of economic constraints due to the war against Ukraine, the cost of gas and electricity in the Eurozone has increased by 300.0%. According to the official, the collapse of transportation of natural gas from Russia to the European market amounted to 80%, which forced the bloc countries to switch to savings. Thus, in the period August 2022-January 2023, consumption decreased by 19.0% compared to the same period of the last five years, while Finland (-57.3%), Lithuania (-47.9%) and Sweden (-40.2%) showed the highest decrease. The European alliance successfully made up the missing volume from the U.S., Canada and Norway and accumulated 61.0% reserves.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0747.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400.USDJPY: The potential of the yen was discussed by Deutsche Bank expertsThe trading pair USDJPY reflects a moderate rise, being at 136.50, developing growth. "American" continues to recover the positions lost the day before, which was due to the release of the macroeconomic bloc from the United States, according to which the initial applications for unemployment benefits renewed the show of 211.0 thousand, beating analysts' expectations of 195.0 thousand, and the previous figure of 190.0 thousand, and the total value of population, which were approved payments, strengthened to 1.718, million to the previous 1.649 million.Meanwhile, experts from Deutsche Bank AG allow the Japanese yen to strengthen by 60.0% provided that the national regulator will change the trend in the issue of monetary parameters and the U.S. Federal Reserve will follow suit and move to reduce the interest rate. According to analysts, the yen is "fair value equilibrium" lower by 30.0% (100.00) under current conditions, and Japan's 10-year Treasury securities should yield between 1.5% and 1.6%. At the same time, according to comments from representatives of the Japanese banking institution Mizuho Securities Co. Ltd., after the change of the head in the Bank of Japan, the regulator is likely to continue to maintain the current course of monetary policy until the end of Q2, because the dynamics of inflation is not weakening. Thus, in January the annualized consumer price index accelerated at the highest rate since late 1981, having gained 4.3%.Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.67.Support levels: 135.57, 134.54, 134.00, 133.00.AUDUSD: the pair is trading near the local highThe AUDUSD trading instrument displays moderate strengthening, resuming positions at 0.6600, continuing gains, intending to move away from the local low of November 10, updated by Tuesday's sharp rise in the U.S. dollar. "Bulls" successfully developed the dynamics due to the comments of the head of FRS in the US Congress, where he supported the idea of continuing the interest rates adjustment policy, and stated that the indicator will hold high positions for a long period of time. Taking into account the regulator's position, some investors revised their expectations of the March meeting results and now officials are expected to raise the value by 0.50% rather than by 0.25% as was expected earlier. It also assumes that the target will be updated to 5.60% in the second half of 2023.Earlier in the publication came the January block of statistics of the Australian construction market, which turned out to be weak. For example, the overall rate of approved applications for construction work fell 27.6% and for private sector construction fell 13.8%, confirming a strong negative trend in the sector amid a systemic strengthening of the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6563, 0.6500, 0.6450, 0.6400.USDCAD: the pair is aiming for a 2022 peakDuring the current week the USDCAD trading instrument broke through the psychological threshold of 1.3800, which made it possible to continue the upward trend to the previous year's record at 1.3960.The positive dynamics became possible thanks to the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the interest rate at 4.50%, despite the high inflation of 5.9%. Accompanying comments of the officials let investors know that the regulator intends to keep the value at the current levels, but remains ready for further correction, taking into account the market environment. In addition, a continuation of quantitative easing program was announced.Resistance levels: 1.3960 and 1.4100.Support levels: 1.3670, ...
USDJPY: Japan assessed Q4 GDP dynamicsThe Asian trading session shows attempts of the yen to win back its losses, reaching the 136.87 level due to the positive national GDP data.Japan's gross domestic product in Q4 last year remained unchanged, having declined 0.3% in line with previous expectations. It was the reason for the local growth of the annual index from -1.1% to 0.1% in the previous period. Investors note that technical exit of economy from recession gives positive signals to the market, contrary to analysts' expectations of more active dynamics. The driver for positive indicators was the increase in consumer spending, which added 0.3% for Q4 in 2022, having shown zero dynamics before. The value of exports increased by 1.5%, reflecting a positive trend for the fifth quarter in a row, while imports decreased by 0.4%, which has not been seen since Q3 2021. Meanwhile, business decreased capital investment by 0.5%.Support levels: 135.30, 131.00.Resistance levels: 138.00, 142.00.AUDUSD: the regulator continues to tighten monetary parametersAccording to the trading floors, the weaker Australian dollar allows the AUDUSD to quote at 0.6612.Investors noted the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.60%, which signaled the continuation of the hawkish vector, as economists suggested. According to experts, an increase in the indicator at a more rapid rate of 0.50% would have caused a strong vulnerability of the "Australian" to the main competitors of the currency basket, stimulating a more serious decline. Commenting on the situation, Chairman Philip Lowe said that the dynamics of consumer prices is close to its peak and the indexation of wages was less than expected marks, which will avoid the formation of a "spiral" trend. According to preliminary data the consumer prices can reach the target range of 2.0%-3.0% at the end of the year, now the regulator officials have planned a pause to assess the state of economic activity after ten stages of key increase.Resistance levels: 0.6670 and 0.6860.Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6360.Silver pricesThe precious metal is quoted by the local correction trend, testing the 20.10 mark. At the end of the last month, the silver has fallen to the current 20.00 from 24.00 in the past, and the USD Index has strengthened to 105.500 from 101.000 in the same period, showing a high correlation between these instruments.The future outlook for the banking metal does not look cloudless. So, the summit of the American regulator was announced on March 22, and taking into account the "hawkish" rhetoric of the agency's head the day before, the investors agreed that the interest rate correction will amount to 0.50%. The proponents of a more aggressive fight against consumer prices are getting more and more, which creates a positive background to support the dollar.The industrial sector has continued to reduce the need for silver since the beginning of this year. According to statistics from the Semiconductor Industry Association, the January 2023 global market for semiconductor products, where the metal is widely used, declined 18.5%, amounting to $41.23 billion to last January 2022's $50.74 billion.Resistance levels: 20.60, 22.00.Support levels: 19.60, 18.20.Oil Market analysisThe price of WTI crude oil is moving in a local corridor of 71.00-83.40. in anticipation of stimulus, which could increase the chances of more volatility.The stock is supported by the statistics from the Energy Information Administration of U.S. Department of Energy, which reflected a reduction of reserve by 1.694 million barrels this week, while market expectations were 0.395 million barrels and the previous indicator was 1.165 million barrels. Meanwhile, the geopolitical factor, which affects Russia as a major oil and oil products importer, and market participants' caution about high probability of global economic recession, significantly restrain the growth of the asset, thus confirming the forecast of Barclays analysts, who revised the average oil price estimates for the current year. Thus, the Brent grade, according to the analysts, will be able to reach 92.00 against 98.00 last year, and WTI may hold at 87.00 instead of the previous estimate of 94.00.Resistance levels: 80.95, 83.40, 89.77.Support levels: 73.00, 71.00, 66.00, ...
On Thursday the Japanese yen is trying to seize the initiative from the dollar, which led to a decrease in USD/JPY below support at 136.50.The macroeconomic statistics, which were published in Japan, did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the national currency. So, the GDP of the fourth quarter showed zero dynamics which allowed to improve the annual figure by 0.1% to (-1.0%). The economic rebound was mainly due to the growth of consumer spending, which added 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Exports expanded 1.5% while imports declined 0.4%.The US dollar index is trading around 105.600. Yesterday the US labor market report from ADP came out, showing that employment for February increased by 242,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 200,000. The number of vacancies during the reporting month decreased from 11.234 to 10.824 million.Technical analysis for USD/JPYThe USD/JPY is showing an uptrend, confirmed by the Alligator and awesome oscillator indicators.The pair's consolidation above resistance 138.00 will tell about the continuation of growth. From here we form long positions with Take Profit at 142.00. Protective stop is to be placed at 136.00.With development of the descending impulse before an entrance in sales it is necessary to wait for pair fixation below support 135.30. Target for the "bears" is 131.00. Stop-loss is set at ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
The USD/JPY currency quote (US dollar vs Japanese yen) is in second place in terms of turnover after the USD/EUR pair, which is the favorite in terms of liquidity.One of the reasons is the very low cost of the lot, which is approximately equal to $1,200.USD JPY forecast (online) for todayForecasts for USD/JPY have 4 timeframes and different signal strength. It is better to pay attention only to the strongest forecast - Actively buy or Actively sell. The repetition of this signal on all timeframes can also be considered a strong value.Forecasts for USD JPY are based on 20 indicators. Considering the pair from the point of view of technical analysis, mathematical indicators based on the contact of moving averages have a good result. These systems function perfectly on the trend markets, which corresponds to the nature of the movements of the Japanese national currency. Fast and slow stochastics often give false signals, but their derivative indicators - oscillators - show good and clean entry points.General characteristics of USDJPYFOREX, as a platform that accumulates most currency pairs, is an excellent opportunity to start working with USD/JPY.In the global economy, Japanese assets, including the national currency, play the role of a kind of safe haven. At times when panic and despair come to the stock exchange, this immediately affects the price. The dollar is declining relative to the banknotes of the "land of the rising sun" under the pressure of increasing demand among traders.The volatility of the USD JPY pair is known to every experienced player in the FOREX market. Lightning-fast and unpredictable waves of growth and fall constantly happen to this pair. Such movements allow you to take a good profit for a short period of time. It is extremely problematic to predict prices for USD/JPY in the relatively long term. Nevertheless, it is also not accepted to talk about some kind of increased volatility in relation to USD/JPY.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayWhat USD JPY quotes depend on and what influences the exchange rateJapan's industry is focused on the export of goods. That is why the main financial institutions in the country are doing their best to counteract the "strong" yen.A cheap national currency is the key to the profit of exporters, who, in turn, pay taxes to the state budget.If there are situations when the yen is strengthening too much, Japan resorts to currency intervention measures, synthetically inflating the price of USD/JPY. For the same purposes, the Central Bank of Japan keeps interest rates prohibitively low, not exceeding one tenth of a percent (0.1%).Actively trading on this pair, you should not stop only on technical analysis. It is necessary to be aware of the main news concerning finance, politics, along with macroeconomics. There is a pattern of USD/JPY movement with political events in the USA and Japan. The reaction from the US dollar is formed due to factors such as:Increase in the Fed's lending rate.Changing the economic balance of power in the United States.Downgrade of the credit rating of the United States.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?How best to trade USD/JPYOn time frames of 4 hours or more, the chart of the USD/JPY pair is largely correlated with the Nikkei 225 (Tokyo Stock Exchange index).If you open the Nikkei 225 and yen chart at the same time interval (preferably 4 hours or more, so as not to encounter a lot of noise) and constantly monitor them, then, from time to time, you can observe such situations when the Nikkei 225 begins a noticeable downward or upward movement, which is not yet observed on the yen chart, but then USD/JPY almost always repeats them, too.Such situations are good entry signals and are almost always confirmed.Studying the hourly chart (H1), you can see that the direction of the candle that appears at the opening of the American trading session almost always determines the direction of movement of the currency pair until the opening of the London session, which can be advantageously used as a USD/JPY forecast for intraday transactions.Immediately after the opening of the American session, we enter (if a bearish candle, then into sales, if bullish - into purchases), and immediately before the start of the London session, we close the deal.Features of the currency pairDue to the low price, USD/JPY has only two decimal places. It looks something like this: USD/USD = 119.15 - where the last digit is equal to one point.Currency trading in Japan, when movements in USD/JPY have the maximum volume, is conducted at night for Europe.USD/JPY is an interesting tool of the FOREX currency market, which is suitable for medium-term investors in the framework of swing trading. This is a great option for a more advanced trader who is looking for more complex financial instruments with non-trivial price change ...
Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...