NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, ...
During Monday's Asian session, USD/JPY is correcting from local highs, trading near the level of 156.12. After a sharp rise last week, the US dollar came under pressure amid expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, scheduled for today. The new president promises to impose increased import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern in the market.The Japanese yen, in turn, found support in positive macroeconomic statistics. Orders for machinery products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, exceeding the 5.6% increase a month earlier. On a monthly basis, the indicator rose by 3.4%, with a forecast decline of 0.4%. Although industrial production decreased by 2.2% in November, it was slightly better than expected. In annual terms, the decrease was 2.7%, compared to 2.8% previously. The percentage of production capacity utilization fell by 1.9%, and the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3%, which also turned out to be worse than expected.US industrial production data released on Friday showed an increase of 0.9% in December, which exceeded forecasts of 0.3%. All this adds interest to the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan on January 24. It is expected that the rate will be raised from 0.25% to 0.50% and will reach its maximum since 2008, which may lead to further tightening of monetary policy. This can be supported by rising wages and the desire to achieve the 2.0% inflation target.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, is likely to confirm his readiness for further adjustments if the Trump administration's policy does not create additional risks for the Japanese economy. Friday's inflation statistics may show an acceleration of the base index to 3.0%, which will be an additional factor in favor of the "hawkish" rhetoric.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart signals an expansion of the range, while the price returns to its lower limit. The MACD indicator confirms the potential for decline, approaching the zero level from above. Stochastic is turning up, which may indicate a possible development of short-term upward dynamics.It is advisable to form short positions when breaking down the level of 155.50 with a target of 154.50 and a stop loss at 156.00.The return of the uptrend and the activation of purchases will be indicated by an upward breakdown of the level of 156.50. In this case, the target of buyers becomes the level of 157.50. We will set the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: Euro drops to November 2022 levelsThe euro continues to show a decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session on January 13, again trying to break through the 1.0200 mark and updating the November 2022 lows. The pair is rapidly approaching parity, and at the moment there are no obvious factors that can stop this movement.The US dollar is supported by expectations of the first steps of the newly elected President Donald Trump after the inauguration on January 20. Among the announced plans of the Republican administration is to increase import duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, which could accelerate inflation and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In addition, Trump's statements about the strategic importance of Greenland and the possibility of its return to US control are attracting the attention of the markets. His adviser Mike Waltz has already admitted that various ways of implementing this plan may be considered, including military measures.European investors are also analyzing December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4%, and on an annual basis — from 2.2% to 2.4%. Core inflation increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, reaching 2.7%. However, analysts believe that these figures are unlikely to affect the current policy of the ECB. Deutsche Bank experts note that despite the annual inflation rate in the service sector of about 4.0%, its growth rate and wages are slowing down. This allows us to expect to reach the target level of 2.0% by February. If the forecasts are confirmed, the ECB may consider lowering interest rates below the neutral level in 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0253, 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0400.Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050.GBP/USD: strong downward momentum of the pound is gaining momentumThe pound continues to develop the downward trend established last week, when the GBP/USD pair began to adjust from the local highs reached on January 7. The quotes are now approaching the 1.2140 level, testing it for a downward breakout. The US dollar is receiving additional support due to strong statistics on the US labor market.On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the attention of British investors will be focused on inflation data. Analysts expect the annual core consumer price index to remain at 3.5%, while the overall figure could be 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Also at this time, a report on retail prices will be published, which predicts a slight increase from 3.6% to 3.7%. On Thursday, the market will focus on the November UK GDP and industrial production data. Economists assume that both indicators will show positive dynamics.: GDP may grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.1%, and industrial production — up to 0.1% after a fall of 0.6%.Market participants are also assessing recent statements by the Deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden. She noted that current economic statistics indicate the possibility of a gradual easing of monetary policy, but the exact timing and pace of rate cuts remain uncertain. According to her, against the background of tax indexation carried out by the Labor government, the weakening of the national economy may continue, which requires a balanced approach from the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2200, 1.2230, 1.2261.Support levels: 1.2100, 1.2036, 1.2000, 1.1950.USD/CHF: NBS expects revenue of 80.0 billion francs for 2024he US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair, holding near the level of 0.91 70. At the start of the new trading week, buyer activity remains subdued, and there are no prerequisites for a noticeable corrective movement yet. The dollar is supported by expectations related to the start of the new term of Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place on January 20, as well as data on the state of the US labor market, which may affect the monetary policy of the regulator.The Swiss National Bank forecasts a record profit of 80 billion francs by the end of 2024, which will be the highest figure since the establishment of the institution. The main factors of this result are the growth of the dollar, the appreciation of precious metals and successful investments in shares of the largest technology companies. The strengthening of the US currency, which accounts for 39% of the bank's reserves, contributes to an increase in the value of assets when converted into francs. In addition, the increase in gold prices, which rose by 27% last year, increased the value of 1.04 million metric tons of this metal on the bank's balance sheet. The official report will be published on March 3, but analysts are confident that the bank's shareholders can expect to receive their first dividend payments in the last three years.Resistance levels: 0.9188, 0.9225, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9130, 0.9100, 0.9037.USD/JPY: quotes are moving away from recent peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, retreating from Friday's peak at 157.35. This trend is associated with the release of new data on Japanese macroeconomics.According to November statistics, the household spending index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, which turned out to be a less significant decline compared to the expected decrease of 0.6%. Experts emphasize that the current wage growth rates offered by employers in Japan are insufficient to cover inflationary costs. This, along with the weakening of the yen, increases the financial burden on households and reduces the likelihood of continued tightening. Representatives of the Bank of Japan have previously stressed that the future of monetary strategy will depend on current economic statistics. In case of accelerated price growth, the interest rate may change. Currently, annual inflation is 2.9%, which exceeds the target level of 2.0%. If the growth rate continues, the regulator will have to take decisive action, which may support the Japanese currency.Resistance levels: 161.93 164.07.Support levels: 156.25, ...
Upcoming eventsThis week promises to be full of macroeconomic publications, where the inflation indicators of key economies will take the central place.:- Wednesday: publication of the US consumer price index for December, accompanied by inflation statistics from Sweden, France, Spain and the UK- Thursday: German inflation data- Friday: publication of the harmonized eurozone consumer price index for December and a block of Chinese statistics (GDP, real estate market, retail sales)The key events of the past week and their impact on the marketsChinese foreign trade: unexpected growthChina's December foreign trade statistics exceeded analysts' expectations:- Exports: 10.7% YoY growth (November: +6.7%)- Imports: 1.0% YoY increase (November: -3.9%)It is noteworthy that the export growth may be partly due to the acceleration of purchases ahead of the expected tariff increase.US labor market: unexpectedly strong dataFriday's US employment report significantly exceeded forecasts:- 256 thousand new jobs were created (forecast: +160 thousand)- Unemployment decreased to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%- Wage growth slowed to 0.3% (previously: 0.4%)The data indicate a suspension of the cooling of the labor market, which reduces the likelihood of an early easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The market's reaction was reflected in the strengthening of the dollar and rising interest rates in both the United States and Europe.Inflationary dynamics in ScandinaviaNorway: core inflation dropped to 2.7% (forecast: 2.8%), confirming the disinflationary trend and increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in March.Denmark: inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.6%, mainly due to the underlying effect in the energy sector.Market dynamicsStock marketsGlobal indexes ended Friday with a decline amid rising bond yields:- Dow Jones: -1,6%- S&P 500: -1,5%- Nasdaq: -1,6%- Russell 2000: -2,2%Debt marketStrong data on the US labor market triggered an increase in yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by 10 bps to 4.76%, exceeding the September lows by 110 bps.Forex market- USD: strengthening amid rising rates- JPY: growth leader despite higher yields- GBP: pressure remains, the EUR/GBP pair is testing the level of 0.84- NOK and SEK: volatile trades with neutral ...
USD/JPY analysis on January 9th, 2025The USD/JPY pair is moving in a sideways flat near the 157.80 mark, maintaining the potential for strengthening the US dollar.According to recent statistical reports, the average salary in Japan increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 2.7%. The total income of employees increased from 2.2% to 3.0%, and overtime pay increased from 0.7% to 1.6%. These data indicate successful negotiations between trade unions and companies, which allows the Bank of Japan to adhere to a "hawkish" monetary policy. There are also positive changes in the capital market. The volume of purchases of foreign bonds decreased to 228.6 billion yen, while investments in Japanese stocks rose to 562.7 billion yen after outflows of 1.023 trillion yen. However, the consumer confidence index dropped from 36.4 to 36.2 points, which is lower than the expected 36.6 points. This casts doubt on the Bank of Japan's forecasts for the recovery of consumer spending and its impact on the economy. This factor may influence the regulator's decision on interest rate changes at the next meeting.The US dollar index continues to strengthen. At the moment, it reached 108.8. The dollar was supported by strong labor market data from ADP. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 211,000 to 201,000, and the total volume of applications decreased to 1,867 million, which is lower than the projected 1,870 million. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that the regulator is ready to take a pause in tightening monetary policy due to concerns that inflation will not reach the target level of 2.0% without maintaining current restrictions. The Fed plans two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously announced four.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is correcting within the framework of a local uptrend with the boundaries of 163.00–155.00. Technical indicators confirm the buy signal, but it weakens due to the correction of the asset. The fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are located at a distance from the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram forms new correction bars in the buy zone.Trading recommendations- long positions when the price is fixed above the level of 158.70 with a target of 161.70. We will place the stop loss at 157.40.- Sales will be advisable if the price is fixed below the level of 156.90 with a target of 153.30. Stop loss — ...
EUR/USD: rising inflation in key eurozone countriesThe EUR/USD pair is holding at 1.0425, showing a decline under the influence of the strengthening US dollar. It is highly likely that the quotes will end the current year near the October lows of 2023.In the last days of December, trading activity has noticeably decreased, as the market is dominated by long-term positions that do not significantly affect the formation of short-term trends. This week, investors' attention will be focused on Spain's economic data. After the publication of Friday's report, which reflected a decline in retail sales in November from 3.4% to 1.0%, preliminary inflation data for December is expected to be released today at 10:00 (GMT+2). Analysts' forecasts suggest an increase in the consumer price index from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.6% on an annual basis. Such indicators, as in most eurozone countries, do not support the current dovish approach of the European Central Bank (ECB). At the next meeting in February, the regulator may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stressed that further monetary policy easing is likely to be less active and may be postponed.Resistance levels: 1.0480, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0380, 1.0250.GBP/USD: the pound does not meet expectations due to low market activityThe GBP/USD pair remains in a narrow range of 1.2573–1.2490 (the Murray level [1/8] and the Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%), at the level of 1.2581: the recovery of quotations is hampered by reduced activity of market participants during the holidays and weak UK economic statistics.According to the ONS, the country's economy showed no growth in the third quarter, confirming the likelihood of it plunging into recession. The expectations of experts, who predicted an increase of 0.1%, were not fulfilled, and industrial production decreased by 0.7% in October. The composite business activity index also dropped to 50.5 points, which was caused by business concerns about an increase in the tax burden by 40.0 billion pounds, initiated by the Labor government. The situation deprives the market of hopes for economic improvements related to the political stability achieved thanks to the strong support of Parliament. The lack of positive macroeconomic drivers is holding back the Bank of England's ability to continue cutting rates. After the first adjustment in three years from the August high of 5.25% to the current 4.75%, the regulator is still taking a wait-and-see attitude. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and five other committee members supported maintaining the rate, while three favored reducing it by 25 basis points, citing weakening domestic demand and a deteriorating labor market situation. Despite the current challenges, earlier measures helped reduce inflation: in September, the consumer price index fell to a three-year low of 1.7%, although the rise in electricity prices again kept the indicator above the target level of 2.0%.Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2770.USD/JPY: domestic policy and uncertainty determine the course of the Bank of JapanDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a decline, holding at the level of 157.89, near the local highs reached on July 17.The main attention of market participants on Friday was attracted by fresh data from Japan: the consumer price index in Tokyo for December increased from 2.6% to 3.0%, and the base index excluding food and energy rose from 2.2% to 2.4%. This indicates an increase in inflation and reinforces expectations of a tightening of monetary policy at the beginning of next year. According to a summary of the Bank of Japan's opinions published last week, a significant part of the board members support the continuation of hawkish measures, but some of them note the need to take into account global economic risks, including possible changes in US policy after the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stressed last week that inflation should be fixed at 2.0% to maintain stability, after which the regulator will continue to maintain soft monetary conditions in order not to exert excessive pressure on the economy. At the October 30-31 meeting, the rate was left at 0.25%, but the regulator made it clear that it was preparing to increase it in the short term. An important role in the future course of policy will be played by the results of the traditional spring negotiations between trade unions and employers on wage increases, which will have a significant impact on household incomes and inflation expectations.Resistance levels: 159.37, 162.50, 165.62.Support levels: 153.12, 146.87, 143.75.Palladium market analysisPalladium remains in a downward corrective trend, holding above the 900.00 level, but continues to experience pressure due to both fundamental and technical factors.One of the key reasons for the price reduction is the reduction of its use in internal combustion engines, which is associated with the transition of the automotive industry to electric cars. According to S&P Global Mobility forecast, global car production in 2025 will decrease by 0.4% to 88.7 million units, including a 2.9% decrease in the United States to 9.9 million vehicles. However, China partially compensates for this drop by increasing production of electric cars by 30.0% to 15.1 million units, which will account for more than 17.0% of the total market.Another important factor limiting palladium's growth is its low investment attractiveness. Compared to gold and silver, this metal has less liquidity and high volatility. Moreover, it is traded only on a limited number of exchanges. In December, the average daily volume of transactions with gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) exceeded 400.0 thousand contracts, while for palladium this figure barely reached 6.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 943.00, 1000.00.Support levels: 903.00, ...
USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, ...
On Tuesday, USD/JPY is trading with versatile dynamics around the 154.20 mark, not far from the local highs on November 25. The volatility of currency pairs remains restrained, as market participants are awaiting the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2).According to the CME Group, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized around 3.0%. At the same time, traders are analyzing possible actions of the Bank of Japan, taking into account the impact of the economic policy of the new White House administration.If President Donald Trump fulfills his promises to impose 25% duties on imports from China, the Japanese regulator is likely to react by devaluing the yen. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will continue to adhere to a tough policy in January, and 44% expect a rate hike to 0.25% at the December 19 meeting. Some experts point to the role of wage dynamics, believing that it will determine the position of the regulator closer to the spring wage negotiations. Steady wage growth outpacing inflation is considered by the Bank of Japan as a key criterion for revising the rate.The latest economic data from Japan show positive changes. The volume of orders for engineering products in October increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, which significantly exceeded experts' expectations (0.7%). On a monthly basis, the indicator strengthened by 2.1%, exceeding forecasts. In addition, the Jibun Bank manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global improved from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and the index in the service sector increased by 0.3% after a slight decline a month earlier.The Daily chart shows an attempt to reverse the uptrend. The Bollinger Band indicator is expanding, hinting at the possibility of continued growth, but in the short term, the asset may remain overbought. The MACD indicator holds a steady buy signal, and the Stochastic has frozen at the maximum levels.Trading recommendationslong positions after breaking up the level of 154.50 with a target mark of 155.50. We will set a stop loss at the level of 153.87.sales with a confident breakdown down to the level of 153.87. The target mark is 152.70. Stop loss at ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
The USD/JPY currency quote (US dollar vs Japanese yen) is in second place in terms of turnover after the USD/EUR pair, which is the favorite in terms of liquidity.One of the reasons is the very low cost of the lot, which is approximately equal to $1,200.USD JPY forecast (online) for todayForecasts for USD/JPY have 4 timeframes and different signal strength. It is better to pay attention only to the strongest forecast - Actively buy or Actively sell. The repetition of this signal on all timeframes can also be considered a strong value.Forecasts for USD JPY are based on 20 indicators. Considering the pair from the point of view of technical analysis, mathematical indicators based on the contact of moving averages have a good result. These systems function perfectly on the trend markets, which corresponds to the nature of the movements of the Japanese national currency. Fast and slow stochastics often give false signals, but their derivative indicators - oscillators - show good and clean entry points.General characteristics of USDJPYFOREX, as a platform that accumulates most currency pairs, is an excellent opportunity to start working with USD/JPY.In the global economy, Japanese assets, including the national currency, play the role of a kind of safe haven. At times when panic and despair come to the stock exchange, this immediately affects the price. The dollar is declining relative to the banknotes of the "land of the rising sun" under the pressure of increasing demand among traders.The volatility of the USD JPY pair is known to every experienced player in the FOREX market. Lightning-fast and unpredictable waves of growth and fall constantly happen to this pair. Such movements allow you to take a good profit for a short period of time. It is extremely problematic to predict prices for USD/JPY in the relatively long term. Nevertheless, it is also not accepted to talk about some kind of increased volatility in relation to USD/JPY.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayWhat USD JPY quotes depend on and what influences the exchange rateJapan's industry is focused on the export of goods. That is why the main financial institutions in the country are doing their best to counteract the "strong" yen.A cheap national currency is the key to the profit of exporters, who, in turn, pay taxes to the state budget.If there are situations when the yen is strengthening too much, Japan resorts to currency intervention measures, synthetically inflating the price of USD/JPY. For the same purposes, the Central Bank of Japan keeps interest rates prohibitively low, not exceeding one tenth of a percent (0.1%).Actively trading on this pair, you should not stop only on technical analysis. It is necessary to be aware of the main news concerning finance, politics, along with macroeconomics. There is a pattern of USD/JPY movement with political events in the USA and Japan. The reaction from the US dollar is formed due to factors such as:Increase in the Fed's lending rate.Changing the economic balance of power in the United States.Downgrade of the credit rating of the United States.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?How best to trade USD/JPYOn time frames of 4 hours or more, the chart of the USD/JPY pair is largely correlated with the Nikkei 225 (Tokyo Stock Exchange index).If you open the Nikkei 225 and yen chart at the same time interval (preferably 4 hours or more, so as not to encounter a lot of noise) and constantly monitor them, then, from time to time, you can observe such situations when the Nikkei 225 begins a noticeable downward or upward movement, which is not yet observed on the yen chart, but then USD/JPY almost always repeats them, too.Such situations are good entry signals and are almost always confirmed.Studying the hourly chart (H1), you can see that the direction of the candle that appears at the opening of the American trading session almost always determines the direction of movement of the currency pair until the opening of the London session, which can be advantageously used as a USD/JPY forecast for intraday transactions.Immediately after the opening of the American session, we enter (if a bearish candle, then into sales, if bullish - into purchases), and immediately before the start of the London session, we close the deal.Features of the currency pairDue to the low price, USD/JPY has only two decimal places. It looks something like this: USD/USD = 119.15 - where the last digit is equal to one point.Currency trading in Japan, when movements in USD/JPY have the maximum volume, is conducted at night for Europe.USD/JPY is an interesting tool of the FOREX currency market, which is suitable for medium-term investors in the framework of swing trading. This is a great option for a more advanced trader who is looking for more complex financial instruments with non-trivial price change ...
Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...