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Trading signals and online forecasts USD/JPY

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Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024 USD/CAD: National Bank of Canada announced an increase in housing affordabilityThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, moving away from the local lows reached on April 10 and updated at the end of last week. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.3635 mark for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new drivers to appear.Inflation data for April will be published in Canada today. According to preliminary forecasts, the annual consumer price index will decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, continuing to move towards the regulator's target levels of about 2.0%. On a monthly basis, the indicator is expected to decrease from 0.6% to 0.5%.The National Bank of Canada noted an improvement in the real estate market. Mortgage payment as a percentage of income at the median house price in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 3.1%, reaching 58.9%, which is the best quarterly performance since 2019. The greatest improvements are observed in Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria due to lower prices per square meter of housing, lower mortgage interest rates and an increase in median incomes. Analysts believe that the current monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, aimed at preserving the cost of borrowing, indicates a possible transition to "dovish" rhetoric, which will support demand for housing.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730.Support levels: 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: on the eve of the publication of Japanese trading indicatorsDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a short-term uptrend, returning to the highs recorded on May 1, and is trading around the 156.44 mark.After the recent strengthening last week, the yen weakened again due to the intervention of the Bank of Japan: the volume of interventions was less than at the beginning of the month, and over the past four trading sessions, the exchange rate has almost returned to previous levels. Macroeconomic data also failed to support the Japanese currency: in March, the index of business activity in the services sector fell by 2.4%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. Japan's foreign trade data will be published tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2): experts expect exports to increase by 11.1% compared to the previous 7.3%, and imports to grow by 9.0% after a decrease of 4.9% earlier, which will lead to an adjustment of the trade balance to -339.5 billion yen after the previous 366.5 billion yen.Resistance levels: 156.90, 158.50.Support levels: 155.90, 153.60.Gold market overviewThe XAU/USD pair is showing a corrective decline, moving away from the record highs reached at 2450.00. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 2415.00 mark for a downward breakdown, in anticipation of the emergence of new market drivers. Investors' attention is focused on tomorrow's minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting and April inflation statistics from the UK. The consumer price index is expected to decline from 3.2% to 2.1%, approaching the target levels of the Bank of England. If these forecasts are confirmed, the probability of an interest rate cut by the British regulator in June will increase significantly. In addition, the Bank of Canada will also present inflation data, and analysts predict a decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, which is still significantly higher than the regulator's target level.The growth in demand for gold is supported by concerns about increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The situation worsened after reports of the death of Iranian President Seyid Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash, which increased uncertainty over a possible change in the country's foreign policy. Additional support for gold is provided by the recovery of economic activity in China, where the authorities announced new measures to stabilize the affected real estate sector. Recall that China is one of the largest importers of gold, and the People's Bank of China is actively increasing its gold and foreign exchange reserves.Resistance levels: 2431.44, 2450.00, 2470.00, 2500.00.Support levels: 2400.00, 2378.39, 2353.79, 2336.50.Oil market overviewDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI Crude Oil continues to develop the downward momentum that began the day before. Quotes declined from the highs reached on May 1, amid the strengthening of the US dollar. Market participants expect an early interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England in June. It is also assumed that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will take measures to ease monetary policy, but analysts do not predict a transition to a softer exchange rate until September.Investors are looking forward to the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on June 1. Analysts believe that representatives of the cartel will discuss the extension of current restrictions on oil production for the second half of the year, which can support price stability in the face of a weak recovery in global demand. In addition, the oil market is under the influence of political uncertainty in Iran after the deaths of President Syed Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan province. Iran is actively increasing its hydrocarbon production, ranking third in terms of volume among OPEC members, and its main buyer is China. Despite the political changes in Iran, experts are confident that this will not lead to significant changes in the oil market. The premium for geopolitical risk is now tending to zero, compared with $12 per barrel in October and $2 in April, when there were mutual attacks between Iran and Israel.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, ...
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Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, May 20, 2024
USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, May 20, 2024 USD/JPY is in a sideways movement near the level of 155.70. The bulls are trying to develop an upward movement that began at the end of last week, when the pair retreated from local lows on May 6.After the release of important statistics from the United States and speeches by FOMC representatives, market participants are trying to predict the timing of a possible reduction in interest rates by the Fed. The main scenario assumes two acts of monetary expansion of 25 basis points each in 2024. The cycle will start in September or November.On Wednesday, data on orders for engineering products in Japan for March, as well as statistics on imports and exports for April, will be published. Analysts predict an acceleration in exports from 7.3% to 11.1% and imports from -4.9% to 9.0%. The trade balance for April is expected to show a deficit of¥339.5 billion after a deficit of ¥366.5 billion in the previous month. According to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most expect Japan's consumer price index to decline from 2.6% to 2.2% year-on-year in April, which will be the lowest in the last three months, but still exceeds the Bank of Japan's target level of 2.0%. If these forecasts are justified against the background of a significant reduction in GDP in the first quarter, the regulator may reconsider plans to tighten monetary policy, up to the rejection of rate hikes this year.The Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart shows a sideways movement. The MACD is declining, keeping the sell signal Stochastic turned up near the middle of the working rangeWe will form purchases after a confident breakdown up to the level of 156.00. The target will be 157.00. We will set the stop loss at 155.50.A rebound from the resistance of 156.00 and a subsequent breakdown down to 155.50 may be a signal to sell the pair with a target of 154.50. In this case, we will place the stop loss at ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024 EUR/USD: GDP of Eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first quarterThe EUR/USD currency pair shows a corrective movement, holding at 1.0881, thanks to recently published macroeconomic data.In the first quarter, eurozone GDP grew from -0.1% to 0.3%, in line with forecasts and reaching an annual growth of 0.4% against the previous 0.1%. This trend is supported by an increase in the March industrial production index, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations set at 0.5%, and reducing the annual decline from -6.3% to -1.0%. On Friday, the market's attention will be focused on consumer inflation data: it is assumed that in April the consumer price index will maintain the level of 0.6% monthly and 2.4% per annum. The day before, Claes Noth, head of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed the opinion that price pressures in the eurozone are changing, which increases the chances of achieving the inflation target next year. In turn, Pierre Wunsch, the head of the Central Bank of Belgium, indicated that the European Central Bank is considering a two-fold reduction in interest rates.Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0710.USD/JPY: economic slowdown in Japan continuesThe USD/JPY currency pair continues to follow the downward trend set a day earlier, with quotes near the 153.82 mark and an update of the minimum values since May 6.Analysts attribute the strengthening of the yen to possible currency interventions by the Bank of Japan against the background of weak macroeconomic indicators of the country: GDP for the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations, which predicted a decrease of 0.3% and stagnation at 0.0%. The annual GDP index fell by 2.0% compared to the previous indicator of 0.0%. The main factor in the deterioration of economic dynamics was the decline in consumer spending, which deepened from -0.4% to -0.7% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, in March, industrial production showed an increase from 3.8% to 4.4% month-on-month and a decrease in the annual decline from -6.7% to -6.2%. A report from the Bank of Japan is expected to be published next week, which will provide additional information on the extent of possible currency interventions.Support levels: 153.00, 150.80.Resistance levels: 154.80, 156.80.Silver market overviewThe price of silver has moved away from the peak values of February 2021, reached at the beginning of the trading session on Thursday, and has now stabilized around the 29.44 mark.Silver quotes received support from the latest US inflation data for April, which met analysts' expectations and increased the likelihood of an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The annual consumer price index decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, remaining above the target level of 2.0%. The monthly rate slowed from 0.4% to 0.3%. Excluding food and energy resources, the base index also decreased from 3.8% to 3.6% per annum and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly. In addition, the market noted an additional decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in May from -14.3 to -15.6 points, while forecasts were -10.0 points. US retail sales stagnated in April after rising 0.6% in the previous month, although an increase of 0.4% was expected.Resistance levels: 29.84, 30.15, 30.50, 30.75.Support levels: 29.35, 29.00, 28.80, 28.52.Oil market overviewLast week, WTI crude oil prices tested the level of 77.75 and ended the day above this mark yesterday, supported by a reduction in hydrocarbon reserves and a slowdown in inflation in the United States.According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), over the week, the volume of strategic oil reserves in the United States decreased by 2.508 million barrels, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.400 million barrels, and previous data showed a decrease of 1.362 million barrels, which contributed to the growth of quotations. Oil prices are also supported by the weakening of the US dollar, due to a decrease in inflationary pressure: in April, the consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.3%, falling below the expected level of 0.4%, and the base index was 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. If the inflation rate continues to slow down, the officials of the Federal Reserve System may take a softer position, which will entail pressure on the national currency and further strengthen energy prices.Resistance levels: 81.93, 84.53, 87.47.Support levels: 77.75, 75.60, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024 EUR/USD: euro has reached new local highsThe EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing a bullish momentum in the short and medium term, updating the local highs reached on April 10. At the moment, the instrument is testing the 1.0820 level, while investors are waiting for the publication of today's macroeconomic data.Yesterday, inflation data for April were published in Germany: the consumer price index rose from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.2% on an annual basis, while the harmonized index amounted to 0.6% on a monthly basis and increased from 2.3% to 2.4% on an annual basis. Statistics on economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) supported the euro: the index for the eurozone rose from 43.9 points to 47.0 points, exceeding forecasts at 46.1 points, and the indicator for Germany rose from 42.9 points to 47.1 points with expectations of 44.9 points. The index of current business conditions in Germany also showed positive dynamics, rising from -79.2 points to -72.3 points. In general, the level of business sentiment has reached a two-year high, which allows experts to hope for an acceleration in the pace of economic recovery in the region.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/JPY: IMF recommended the Bank of Japan to continue adjusting ratesThe US currency is losing ground in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting after recent growth, which led to an update of local highs from May 1. Investors have reduced their long positions to hedge risks ahead of the publication of US inflation data today at 14:30 (GMT+2).The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that the Bank of Japan continue to gradually tighten monetary policy and adjust interest rates. The IMF stressed that the purchase of government bonds can help mitigate sharp changes in yields that could undermine macro-financial stability during this important transition period. In addition, the fund's experts left forecasts for Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) at 0.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. They also expect consumption to recover in the second half of 2024 and 2025, thanks to the agreed wage increases achieved in March.On Thursday at 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan's GDP data for the first quarter will be published, with an expected decrease from 0.1% to -0.3% on a quarterly basis and from 0.4% to -1.5% on an annual basis. It is also expected that the March statistics on industrial production will show an increase from -0.6% to 3.8%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.00, 157.50, 157.98.Support levels: 156.00, 155.50, 155.00, 154.50.USD/CHF: consolidation before the release of US inflation dataThe US dollar is holding near the 0.9056 level during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" trend that began the day before. The USD/CHF pair is trying to break through the 0.9050 mark downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation. This indicator reflects changes in the level of retail prices for a certain set of goods and services, including food, transportation, utilities and healthcare, and has a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions.Current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual consumer price index from 3.5% to 3.4% by the end of April, while monthly growth will remain at 0.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is likely to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis over the same period. Retail sales data for April will be published at 14:30 (GMT+2), and analysts expect a decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%, while sales excluding the automotive market may fall from 1.1% to 0.2%. Against the background of these expectations, American investors have already estimated the data on the producer price index for April, which showed an increase of 0.5% after the previous decrease of -0.1%, which exceeded the forecast of 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased from 1.8% to 2.2%.Resistance levels: 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935.GBP/USD: labor market strengthened the pound's positionThe British currency shows multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 1.2600 mark and local highs reached on May 3. Yesterday, the pair showed significant growth, despite the predominance of "bears" for a long time.The British currency received support due to strong statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, and employment decreased by 177.0 thousand people, which is better than preliminary forecasts of -215.0 thousand. However, the average wage growth, taking into account bonuses, remained at 5.7% instead of the expected 5.3%, and excluding bonuses amounted to 6.0%. In the first quarter of this year, there was also an improvement in labor productivity: a decrease of -0.3% compared to -0.9% in the previous period. Thus, the employment sector is showing signs of slowing down, which may give the Bank of England grounds for a gradual easing of monetary policy. However, there remain risks of rising consumer prices due to wage adjustments.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2430.Resistance levels: 1.2630, ...
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Articles about financial markets

Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
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Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
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