Trading signals and online forecasts USD/JPY

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, ...

USD/JPY analysis on March 24, 2025Fundamental factors and market sentimentThe US dollar is showing moderate growth against the yen, continuing to develop the corrective upward movement formed on March 11. During Monday's Asian trading, the instrument is trying to gain a foothold above 149.80, updating the local highs recorded on March 19.The dollar is supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve following last week's meeting, where the regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50% and confirmed that it does not intend to rush to ease monetary policy.According to the updated forecasts, the rate may decrease to 3.90% in 2024, which implies two or more adjustments of 25 bps. In the future, the decline may continue: to 3.40% in 2026 and 3.10% in 2027. However, the market was counting on a softer tone from the regulator, especially in light of political pressure from the administration of Donald Trump.On the other hand, the Bank of Japan also made no changes to monetary policy, keeping the rate at 0.50%. Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the high uncertainty preventing further rate increases. However, the Japanese authorities expect increased inflationary pressures due to increased investment and wage indexation. For example, Japan's largest trade union Rengo has agreed with employers to raise wages by 5.4%, the highest in 34 years, which could accelerate inflation and lead to a tightening of policy in May or July.Weak macroeconomic statistics exerted additional pressure on the yen. In February, inflation in Japan slowed from 4.0% to 3.7%, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose from only 2.5% to 2.6%. In addition, in March, the Jibun Bank Industrial business activity Index (PMI) decreased from 49.0 to 48.3 points, and in the service sector — from 53.7 to 49.5 points, indicating a slowdown in economic activity.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayAccording to the Daily, the main forex indicators confirm the upward trend:• The Bollinger bands are expanding, signaling an increase in volatility and a possible continuation of the upward movement.• The MACD remains in the positive zone, supporting the buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line).• Stochastic is turning up, but it is already approaching the overbought zone, which may limit the growth potential.Trading recommendations• Purchases are advisable with a confident breakdown of the 150.00 level with a target of 151.50. Stop loss: 149.09.• Sales can be considered at the breakdown of 149.09 down, which will confirm a return to the "bearish" scenario, with a target of 148.00. Stop loss: 149.60.The current technical picture indicates the dominance of the bulls, but the overbought dollar may trigger a corrective decline in the coming trading ...

The US dollar continues to strengthen in the Asian session on Wednesday. USD/JPY is developing an upward momentum that began a week ago. The pair is testing the 149.60 level for an upward breakout and remains near the local maximum of March 5. The main event for the market was the meeting of the Bank of Japan, following which the regulator unanimously kept the interest rate at 0.50%, which fully coincided with analysts' expectations.The Bank of Japan's statement noted that the country's economy is showing a moderate recovery, although negative trends remain in some sectors. Industrial production and exports remain stable, but trade barriers imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump pose additional risks. In particular, 25 percent duties on steel and aluminum, as well as possible new tariffs on car imports, could put pressure on the Japanese auto industry. Inflation remains above the target level: the core consumer price index reached 3.2%, which forces the regulator to think about further tightening monetary policy. However, the specific terms of the rate review were not announced. Last year, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate by 25 basis points twice, in March and July.Additional attention was drawn to Japan's foreign trade data for February. Exports grew by 11.4% after 7.3% a month earlier, although an increase of 12.1% was expected. Imports, on the contrary, slowed sharply, falling 0.7% after January's 16.2% increase. As a result, the trade balance shifted from a deficit (-2758.8 billion yen) to a surplus (584.5 billion yen), although the consensus forecast assumed an increase to 722.8 billion yen.A meeting of the US Federal Reserve System will be held today at 20:00 (GMT+2). Analysts are almost unanimous in the opinion that the regulator will keep the interest rate at 4.50%. However, the attention of market participants will be focused on the Fed's rhetoric regarding future prospects. The protectionist policy of the Donald Trump administration, accompanied by rising import duties, is putting pressure on the dollar. Additionally, the situation is complicated by weak macroeconomic data, which increases fears of a recession.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the Daily chart, the Bollinger indicator is in a horizontal movement position, which signals a decrease in volatility and a limited growth potential in the short term. The MACD indicator maintains a steady buy signal. Stochastic, approaching the overbought zone (level 80).Trading recommendations• Long positions are recommended after a confident breakout of the 150.00 resistance with a target of 151.50. A protective stop loss is 149.20.• A return to the "bearish" scenario with a breakdown of 149.09 down may be a signal for sales with a target of 148.00. Stop loss — ...

GBP/USD: lower inflation in the US supports the poundThe pound sterling is strengthening in the GBP/USD pair, correcting against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and trading near the 1.2960 mark.Additional support for the British currency is provided by macroeconomic factors: tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), UK GDP data is expected to be published. Experts predict a decrease in growth rates from 0.4% to 0.1% in monthly terms and a weakening from 1.5% in annual terms, which may strengthen the dovish mood of the Bank of England before the March 20 meeting. In addition, the regulator expanded its support for the banking sector, replacing weekly financing with semi—annual financing and allocating a record 2,127 trillion pounds as part of the REPO operation, the maximum amount since 2020.The US dollar is trying to regain its position, trading around 103.50 on the USDX index. The main focus of investors is yesterday's report on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index in February slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 3.0% to 2.8% in annual terms, while the base indicator decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. This dynamic reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will keep the rate at 4.25–4.50% at its meeting next week.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2760.USD/CHF: the pair maintains a sideways trendThe US dollar shows mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair during the Asian session, holding near the level of 0.8815: the activity of market participants remains low, despite the data on inflation in the United States published the day before.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on inflation in the US manufacturing sector: according to forecasts, the annual producer price index for February will slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly indicator will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. At the same time, the base index excluding food and energy resources is likely to remain at 3.6% in annual terms and 0.3% on a monthly basis. The markets also expect data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: initial applications for the week ending March 7 may increase from 221.0 thousand to 225.0 thousand, and repeat applications (for the week of February 28) may increase from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published: experts expect a decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points.In Switzerland, February data on producer and import price indices will be released at 09:30 (GMT+2): a moderate monthly increase is expected from 0.1% to 0.2%, and an annual fix at -0.3%. Probably, these indicators will not have a significant impact on the future steps of the Swiss National Bank in the field of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.8827, 0.8851, 0.8875, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730.USD/JPY: Dollar decline is gaining momentumThe US dollar is showing a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting positions after two days of growth, which allowed updating local highs from March 6. At the moment, quotes are testing the 147.85 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new macroeconomic triggers to appear.Investors in Japan continue to analyze the revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, published the day before. According to updated estimates, the indicator increased by only 0.6% in quarterly terms instead of the expected 0.7%, and the annual dynamics was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.2%. The slowdown in economic growth creates additional challenges for the Bank of Japan, which is considering a tougher monetary policy, but faces risks related to the instability of the national economy.Resistance levels: 148.55, 149.19, 150.00, 150.50.Support levels: 148.00, 147.00, 146.00, 145.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move in a downward trend, holding slightly above the level of $ 70.00 per barrel.In the middle of the week, the market showed a slight increase against the background of the publication of reports on fuel reserves in the United States, but the general vector of movement is determined by the statements of OPEC + about plans to gradually increase production. According to February data, the countries participating in the agreement, with the exception of states exempt from quotas, increased production by 313.0 thousand barrels per day, bringing it to 35.5 million barrels per day. This exceeds the originally planned volumes by 67.0 thousand barrels, and the main increase occurred in Iraq (130.0 thousand barrels per day), Nigeria (60.0 thousand) and Gabon (50.0 thousand).Data on oil reserves in the United States turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded an increase in reserves of 4.247 million barrels after a decrease of 1.455 million barrels a week earlier. In turn, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, compared with 1.448 million barrels a week earlier.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.80.Support levels: 68.80, ...

USD/JPY analysis on March 13, 2025During Thursday's Asian trading, USD/JPY corrects positions and tests the 147.85 level for a downward breakout. Market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors that may set the direction for further movement.Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February will be released in the United States at 14:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual rate may slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly rate from 0.4% to 0.3%. The core PPI index, which excludes food and energy resources, is likely to remain at 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month.In addition, the market is awaiting the publication of statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. According to expectations, the number of initial requests for the week of March 7 will increase from 221 thousand to 225 thousand, and repeat requests (as of February 28) — from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan will be released, which is projected to decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points, which may affect investor sentiment.Investors continue to analyze data on Japan's economic growth. Updated GDP statistics for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the economy grew by only 0.6% instead of the expected 0.7%, and in annual terms — by 2.2% instead of 2.8%. The slowdown in growth complicates the task of the Bank of Japan, which is considering a gradual curtailment of soft monetary policy.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe Bollinger indicator on the daily chart is trying to reach a neutral position. The MACD continues to grow and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic is moving up more actively and is located in the middle zone of the indicator.Trading recommendationsSales may be relevant after a confident breakdown down to 147.00. The target will be 145.00. Stop loss — 148.00.If growth resumes and gains above 148.55, purchases with a target level of 150.00 are possible. Stop loss is ...

PMI indices for February in most major economies are expected to be published today. Special attention will be paid to data on the Eurozone. In January, the manufacturing PMI rose from 45.1 to 46.6, which was a positive signal after the weak second half of 2024. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 46.8 in February, while the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.6.In Denmark, data on the business confidence index for February will be released today. Despite the decline in January, forecasts point to moderate growth in 2025, as well as an increase in the number of new jobs. Employment data for December 2024 will also be published, which show steady growth over the past year.Federal elections will be held in Germany this weekend. The key theme of the candidates is the recovery of a weakening economy, which makes the outcome of the election important for future growth. The most likely outcome is a coalition between the CDU/CSU Conservatives and the Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens. In both cases, Friedrich Merz from CDU is likely to become chancellor.There is a 50% chance of debt brake reform, which will increase the structural deficit and boost GDP growth in the coming years. If the reform is not implemented, a similar fiscal incentive can be achieved through targeted extra-budgetary funds.Economic and market newsJapan: The core consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food turned out to be slightly higher than expected, amounting to 3.2% in annual terms. This strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the regulator, noted that additional rate cuts depend on an improvement in inflationary dynamics, and also indicated a willingness to increase the purchase of government bonds in the event of an increase in long-term interest rates.Denmark: The consumer confidence index dropped to -14.5 in February from -11.7 in January. The weak data is linked to concerns about the economy and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's policies. However, citizens' personal finances are improving due to rising real wages, a strong labor market, and a stable housing market.Denmark's GDP grew by 1.6% in the fourth quarter and 3.6% for the whole of 2024, mainly due to the pharmaceutical industry. Excluding this sector, growth would have been 1.8%, while private consumption increased by only 0.9%.Eurozone: The consumer confidence index rose to -13.6 in February (forecast: -14.0), which was the second consecutive month with an improvement in the indicator. However, confidence remains well below the October level. Consumers are concerned about the possible impact of Trump's policies on Europe, despite improved economic conditions such as rising real incomes and lower interest rates.Stock, bond and currency marketsStocks: Risk appetite continues to decline. European indices started the day with growth, but declined after the opening of trading in the United States. The S&P and Stoxx lost 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 lost 0.9%. This is the first decline in European stocks since early January. Convincing macroeconomic data confirming Europe's recovery is needed to continue the rally.Bonds: Fed official Kugler made hawkish statements, noting that employment risks have decreased and inflation remains high. Today's PMI data may affect expectations regarding future ECB decisions.Currencies: The US dollar weakened against most G10 currencies, despite a decrease in risk appetite. The EUR/USD pair approached 1.05, while USD/JPY dropped below 150 and reached its lowest level since the beginning of the year. EUR/GBP is consolidating below 0.83, while EUR/SEK remains below ...

EUR/USD: pressure on the euro has increased due to the negotiations between Russia and the United StatesThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed fluctuations during the Asian session, holding near the level of 1.0450. Market activity remains weak as investors wait for new factors to appear that could affect the exchange rate. The attention of bidders remains focused on the situation surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the potential consequences of the first negotiations between the United States and Russia, which recently concluded in Saudi Arabia. Analysts evaluate their results cautiously, noting that, despite hopes for a softening of the confrontation, there remain risks of marginalizing the role of the European Union in this process, which may exacerbate political instability, especially in France and Germany.Macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone, published the day before, gave mixed signals, but reports from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) made a small positive. In Germany, the business confidence index rose from 10.3 to 26.0 points in February, exceeding the forecast of 15.5 points, and the assessment of current economic conditions rose from -90.4 to -88.5 points against the expected -90.0 points. In the eurozone as a whole, economic sentiment improved from 18.0 to 24.2 points, although preliminary estimates suggested 24.3 points. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate below 2.00% by early 2026, despite previously expected three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, from the current 2.75% to 2.00%. Experts note that the neutral level of the key rate, at which it does not have a restraining or stimulating effect on the economy, is estimated in the range of 1.75–2.25%. At the same time, any further steps taken by the regulator will depend on a detailed analysis of the macroeconomic situation and key indicators.Resistance levels: 1.0467, 1.0513, 1.0554, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0434, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300.GBP/USD: annual inflation in the UK rose to 3.0%Against the background of the stability of the British currency, the GBP/USD pair failed to develop an upward movement and remains near the 1.2617 mark during the Asian session.In January, the dynamics of inflation in the UK showed mixed results: the consumer price index decreased from 0.3% to -0.1% on a monthly basis, while in annual terms the indicator increased from 2.5% to 3.0%. The achieved value significantly exceeds the Bank of England's target limit of 2.0%, which may complicate plans to ease monetary policy. Core inflation, excluding the impact of food and energy prices, accelerated from 3.2% to 3.7% year-on-year. Taking into account the neutral employment report, where the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, experts predict that at the March 20 meeting, the British regulator will keep the key rate at 4.50%.Resistance levels: 1.2680, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2570, 1.2330.USD/JPY: the pair went down, breaking through the support of 153.23–152.69The USD/JPY pair rose to the level of 151.70 after the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan at the beginning of the week.According to the results of the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.8% year-on-year, which significantly exceeded the projected 1.0%. The previously published value was revised upward from 1.2% to 1.7%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased to 0.7%, while preliminary expectations were 0.3%, and adjusted data for the previous period changed from 0.3% to 0.4%. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair sank to the support level of 151.30. At the same time, exports accelerated from 2.8% to 7.2% in January, but fell short of the projected 7.9%, while imports increased from 1.7% to 16.7%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 9.7%. This led to an increase in the trade deficit to -2758.8 billion yen from 132.5 billion previously, while forecasts suggested a decrease to only -2100.0 billion yen. On Friday at 01:30 (GMT+2), the publication of inflation data for January is scheduled, where the annual consumer price index may reach 3.7%, and the base indicator is 3.1%. The expected values can strengthen the yen exchange rate, as they will create additional conditions for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.Resistance levels: 156.47, 158.88.Support levels: 151.30, 149.57, 144.90.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is showing a slight decline near the 2935.35 mark, remaining in the area of historical highs recorded at the beginning of last week. A day earlier, gold was steadily rising in price, helped by an increase in interest in protective assets amid expectations of monetary policy easing by the world's largest regulators. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a review of lending conditions, with the latter immediately reducing its key rate by 50 basis points, as predicted.Investors are closely monitoring the development of diplomatic processes aimed at resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as serious geopolitical risks remain along with hopes for its completion. In particular, there is a possibility that the White House may impose additional duties on European imports due to the divergence of positions between the EU and the United States on the terms of the end of hostilities. The rapid resolution of individual issues can, in turn, lead to new crises, especially in politically tense countries such as Germany and France.Resistance levels: 2942.65, 2965.00, 2980.00, 3000.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, ...

Today, investors' attention is focused on the most important macroeconomic and political events. In Sweden, the results of a survey of inflation expectations conducted by the Origo group (formerly Prospera) are being published. The Riksbank focuses on the need to keep long-term (5–year) inflation expectations close to the target of 2%, which has been stable in the range of 1.9-2.1% since the beginning of 2024. We do not expect any sharp deviations from these values this month.In the UK, inflation data for January is on the agenda. Both the general price level and the base indicator are expected to rise, which is facilitated by higher prices for fuel and educational services. Service inflation is projected to rise to 5.1% against the expected 5.0%. This will be the last inflation report before the March meeting of the Bank of England, where markets do not attach much probability to a rate cut. Analysts believe that the next interest rate cut is possible only in May.This morning, China is publishing data on new home prices, which serve as an important indicator of the state of the real estate market. Recent reports show that the rate of price decline has slowed, which is in line with other indicators indicating a moderate recovery in housing demand. We expect prices to remain at about the same level in January as in December, indicating market stabilization.Market news and recent eventsIn the United States, President Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. Although no specific date has been announced for the start of tariffs, he also confirmed the launch of tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12. The markets will try to assess the sincerity of these statements today.Regarding the situation in Ukraine, American and Russian officials held their first meeting in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war – without Ukraine's participation. Both sides agreed to lay the foundations for future cooperation, with discussions on territorial arrangements and security guarantees expected in the future. Putin's foreign policy adviser noted that the United States and Russia are working on preparing a meeting between Trump and Putin.Sweden has published a detailed inflation report for January, which showed annual CPI growth slightly below expectations – 0.9% against the projected 1.0%, with a monthly change of 0.0%. At the same time, the CPIF baseline indicator excluding energy confirmed a preliminary value of 2.7% per annum, which may signal an increase in inflationary pressure.The UK has released a report on the labor market for December and January, where the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, and the number of people employed exceeded expectations, largely due to data on the public sector. This indicates that the Bank of England is likely to continue its cautious easing policy.In Germany, the February ZEW index rose above expectations, reaching -88.5, the highest in four months, while expectations for future market improvements increased to 26.0, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20.0. These data indicate the continuation of positive surprises in the German economy, despite the general stagnation, which, in turn, is a signal of stability.Market analysisStock markets continued their moderate growth. Yesterday, assets increased slightly despite the fact that the American stock exchanges were closed. European markets added about 0.5%, setting a new closing record for the year, and shares in the defense sector rose especially noticeably – Swedish SAAB recorded an increase of 16% per day and 30% per week. Markets in Asia are also showing strong positions, with South Korean stocks up 2% and some countries seeing significant annual gains of up to 10%. US index futures are slightly higher today.The debt market in Europe is experiencing an increase in government spending on defense and assistance to Ukraine. The EU is considering various financing mechanisms for these costs, which has caused government bond yields to rise, although spreads between peripheral and central countries remain narrow, indicating there is no clear desire to flee to safety.In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen showed the best dynamics among the G10 currencies, which was facilitated by the strong growth of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. EUR/USD is holding just below 1.05, while USD/CAD has stabilized around 1.42 following the release of Canada's January CPI, in line with expectations. The EUR/GBP exchange rate dropped to 0.83, and the following changes are observed in the Scandinavian region: EUR/SEK dropped below 11.22, and EUR/NOK – below 11.64. These movements indicate continued pressure on regional ...

The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...

The USD/JPY currency quote (US dollar vs Japanese yen) is in second place in terms of turnover after the USD/EUR pair, which is the favorite in terms of liquidity.One of the reasons is the very low cost of the lot, which is approximately equal to $1,200.USD JPY forecast (online) for todayForecasts for USD/JPY have 4 timeframes and different signal strength. It is better to pay attention only to the strongest forecast - Actively buy or Actively sell. The repetition of this signal on all timeframes can also be considered a strong value.Forecasts for USD JPY are based on 20 indicators. Considering the pair from the point of view of technical analysis, mathematical indicators based on the contact of moving averages have a good result. These systems function perfectly on the trend markets, which corresponds to the nature of the movements of the Japanese national currency. Fast and slow stochastics often give false signals, but their derivative indicators - oscillators - show good and clean entry points.General characteristics of USDJPYFOREX, as a platform that accumulates most currency pairs, is an excellent opportunity to start working with USD/JPY.In the global economy, Japanese assets, including the national currency, play the role of a kind of safe haven. At times when panic and despair come to the stock exchange, this immediately affects the price. The dollar is declining relative to the banknotes of the "land of the rising sun" under the pressure of increasing demand among traders.The volatility of the USD JPY pair is known to every experienced player in the FOREX market. Lightning-fast and unpredictable waves of growth and fall constantly happen to this pair. Such movements allow you to take a good profit for a short period of time. It is extremely problematic to predict prices for USD/JPY in the relatively long term. Nevertheless, it is also not accepted to talk about some kind of increased volatility in relation to USD/JPY.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayWhat USD JPY quotes depend on and what influences the exchange rateJapan's industry is focused on the export of goods. That is why the main financial institutions in the country are doing their best to counteract the "strong" yen.A cheap national currency is the key to the profit of exporters, who, in turn, pay taxes to the state budget.If there are situations when the yen is strengthening too much, Japan resorts to currency intervention measures, synthetically inflating the price of USD/JPY. For the same purposes, the Central Bank of Japan keeps interest rates prohibitively low, not exceeding one tenth of a percent (0.1%).Actively trading on this pair, you should not stop only on technical analysis. It is necessary to be aware of the main news concerning finance, politics, along with macroeconomics. There is a pattern of USD/JPY movement with political events in the USA and Japan. The reaction from the US dollar is formed due to factors such as:Increase in the Fed's lending rate.Changing the economic balance of power in the United States.Downgrade of the credit rating of the United States.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?How best to trade USD/JPYOn time frames of 4 hours or more, the chart of the USD/JPY pair is largely correlated with the Nikkei 225 (Tokyo Stock Exchange index).If you open the Nikkei 225 and yen chart at the same time interval (preferably 4 hours or more, so as not to encounter a lot of noise) and constantly monitor them, then, from time to time, you can observe such situations when the Nikkei 225 begins a noticeable downward or upward movement, which is not yet observed on the yen chart, but then USD/JPY almost always repeats them, too.Such situations are good entry signals and are almost always confirmed.Studying the hourly chart (H1), you can see that the direction of the candle that appears at the opening of the American trading session almost always determines the direction of movement of the currency pair until the opening of the London session, which can be advantageously used as a USD/JPY forecast for intraday transactions.Immediately after the opening of the American session, we enter (if a bearish candle, then into sales, if bullish - into purchases), and immediately before the start of the London session, we close the deal.Features of the currency pairDue to the low price, USD/JPY has only two decimal places. It looks something like this: USD/USD = 119.15 - where the last digit is equal to one point.Currency trading in Japan, when movements in USD/JPY have the maximum volume, is conducted at night for Europe.USD/JPY is an interesting tool of the FOREX currency market, which is suitable for medium-term investors in the framework of swing trading. This is a great option for a more advanced trader who is looking for more complex financial instruments with non-trivial price change ...

Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...