Today we want to look at predictions from a slightly different angle - who should we trust when it comes to predictions of the future? Who was right in their predictions for 2022 and who was totally wrong? Let's find out!Traditionally, let's start with Wall Street.What did the investment houses forecast for 2022?By the end of 2021, the value of the S&P500 index reached 4,800 points. The investment houses said the markets would continue to rise.The investment banks' forecasts for the S&P 500 index for 2022 were as follows:The index ended up down 1,000 points for the year, a drop of more than 20 per cent.Only two banks were "toxic" pessimists: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.They did not guess the magnitude of the fall. But at least they pointed in a downward direction. Morgan Stanley was the closest to the truth out of all the investment houses.What is the outlook for banks in 2023?What is BANK OF AMERICA's forecast for 2023The main shock of 2023 is a recession. Bank of America strategists believe that for the US, the Eurozone and the UK a recession is "almost inevitable". The rest of the world, apart from China, will also weaken. In the US, the start of a "moderate recession" is expected in the first half of the year. However, as Bank of America writes, "there is a risk that it will start later". The bank strategists thus expect the first half of the year to be good for bond investments and the second half to be interesting for equities. However, this is as far as I understand, if the recession is not delayed, but starts in the first half of the year.With China it is different - it will wake up from covid hibernation. But very unevenly. Most restrictions will not be lifted until the second half of the year. Chinese equities are likely to strengthen.What about the S&P? Analysts at the bank expect it to end 2023 at 4,000. That is roughly where it is now...US rates are expected to fall by the end of 2023 - both two-year and ten-year treasuries should end the year at 3.25%. The industries which suffered from rising rates in 2022 could benefit in 2023.After a historically bad year for industrial metals in 2022, cyclical and long-term factors will lead to higher metals prices in 2023, with copper prices rising by around 20%!!!Oil, according to Bank of America estimates, will also remain high. Factors that will contribute to this: Russian sanctions (I wonder what they mean by "Russian sanctions" - sanctions against Russian oil or our retaliatory sanctions?), low oil reserves, China opening up and OPEC ready to cut production if demand weakens. The bottom line is that with all these factors, Brent crude will average $100/bbl during 2023 and rise to $110/bbl in the second half of the year.Long: 30-year Treasuries, Chinese stocks, gold and silver, bonds, US Small cap, European banks.Short: Dollar, US technology sector, private equity.What is MORGAN STANLEY's forecast for 2023So, the bank's strategists write: "The general consensus is that corporate profits will start to collapse in early 2023, followed by the stock market. But the economy has proved too resilient". So Morgan Stanley expects earnings to fall slowly - to spite the bears.In fact they repeat the forecast of Bank of America - they expect a delay in the start of the recession until the second half of the year.Attitudes towards mega-cap stocks are sceptical. Here's what they write: "At their peak in 2000, the 5 largest tech stocks accounted for 20% of the S&P500 index. These were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Nokia, Intel and IBM. These same 5 stocks bottomed out 5 years later and already accounted for 5% of the index.At their peak in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for 25% of the S&P500. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla. But are they heading towards 5% of the index now?"Markets underestimate the risk of recession, stocks could fall another 22%.By the end of 2023, expect the S&P 500 to be at 3900 - even lower than its current value.Like Bank of America, predict a rise in Chinese equities. Expect global GDP growth to slow in 2023 as central banks tighten inflationary pressures. The exception is China, where the spring 2023 opening should lead to a significant recovery in economic activity in H2 2023.What did the Wall Street Gurus predict for 2022?Many of them said a correction in the stock market was inevitable. But there were those who were wrong.For example, Buffett's associate Charlie Munger was betting on Alibaba. Those who followed Munger were clearly wrong.Ray Dalio also bet on China. He also advised to get rid of cache. Wrong too, in fact.On the other hand, his reasoning was quite lengthy, which is hard to pin down. For example, he did advise buying inflation-linked bonds.Larry Williams is another prediction outsider. He is a famous trader with 60 years of trading experience. He created a technical indicator, Williams %R, which is used to estimate the overbought and oversold state of the market. A cobbler without boots - he could not estimate the overbought market.Said that "All markets will rise and be higher than at the beginning of the year, but gold doesn't stand a chance".Who predicted the 2022 market?Jim Rogers predicted the problems of 2022Jim Rogers is Soros' former hedge fund partner Quantum. What did Rogers say?He said - verbatim - "something bad is going to happen, but I'm not selling anything yet".Rogers warned that the US market had actually been rising since 2009. It is the longest growth in US history. But the market can't grow forever, which means there must be a rate hike and a downturn in 2022.Silver, though, has been falling in value for most of the year... That said, it's unclear exactly when Rogers was going to buy silver... Perhaps in this first half of the year's downturn.In addition to silver, Jim recommended investing in agriculture. What does he predict for 2023?Recession, debt crisis, US-European disputes due to energy shortages. Rogers also does not believe in price ceilings and embargoes and believes that Europe will still continue to buy oil and gas from Russia - just in a grey area.Mark Mobius is another soothsayer of the yearPredicted cryptocurrencies falling in 2022, increased tensions between the US and China and lower markets in general"Expect the market to decline and don't panic," he saidHe also said that India would become the new China.Mark Mobius - worked for over 30 years at Franklin Templeton Investments, specialising in emerging markets - including Russia. He was even an independent director of LUKOIL. In 2018, he founded his own company.What does he predict for the year 2023A word on crypto. Bitcoin, according to Mobius, could collapse 40% to $10,000 in 2023."With higher interest rates, the appeal of owning or buying bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive because simply owning the coin does not generate interest," Mobius said."Of course, there have been a few offers with interest rates of 5% or higher for crypto deposits, but many of these companies offering such rates have gone bankrupt in part because of FTX. As these losses grow, people are wary of holding cryptocurrency for the sake of interest."He is also an advocate of investing in India. He believes it is the Indian equity market that is most interesting in 2023.Who else has guessed?Saxo Bank with their crazy forecasts have hit the bullseye this year. Much of their shocking predictions have come true. They predicted a weakening of the ESG agenda, a drop in Facebook and other mammoth quotes, high inflation, weakening of ties between China and the US, and a new Cold War.We already talked about what they predicted for 2023 in one of the videos.The Rothschilds also got it right with their magazine The Economist. Remember the weird cover showing bitcoin and other assets falling down the rabbit hole. Now let's take a closer look at their ...
Major online retailer Amazon.com Inc. will stop testing its automated delivery robot Amazon Scout, a company spokeswoman said, after the issuer realized that the program was not fully meeting the needs of its customers.The company is currently winding down or "refocusing" the program and will work with engaged employees so they can continue working for the organization, Amazon spokeswoman Alice Carroll said, adding that it is not abandoning the project entirely.Amazon began testing the all-electric Scout, which is the size of a small cooler and rolls down sidewalks at pedestrian speeds in Washington state in 2019, and then expanded testing to Southern California, Georgia and Tennessee.Amazon shares on NASDAQ were down 0.54% to $120.3 per paper in trading on Oct. 6, and corrected another 0.2% ($120.06) on the ...
Electric car maker Tesla announced lower-than-expected deliveries of electric cars in the third quarter due to logistical problems.According to Refinitiv, Tesla delivered 343,830 electric cars, a record for the world's most expensive automaker, but below the expected 359,162. A year earlier, Tesla delivered 241,300 units. During the quarter, the issuer delivered 325,158 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y SUVs to customers, as well as 18,672 Model S and Model X premium cars.The latter deliveries fell short of Tesla's production maximum of 365,923 electric cars, a rarity for the issuer.Tesla has set an ambitious goal of producing nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 in the fourth quarter of this year, Reuters reported, citing internal documents.Meanwhile, Elon Musk demonstrated a prototype of the Optimus humanoid robot on Sept. 30, predicting that his company could produce millions of robots and sell them for less than $20,000, less than a third of the price of the Model Y.Tesla shares on NASDAQ were down 1.1% to $265.25 a share in trading on Sept. 30, and are momentarily losing 5.47% ($250.74) in premarket trading on Oct. 3. More about Tesla tradingIf you are interested in Tesla analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on stocks from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Tesla forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...
Major online retailer Amazon.com announced a wage increase for hourly workers in the U.S. that will increase the average starting wage for most front-line warehouse and transportation employees to more than $19 an hour.The company said the increase carries an additional cost of nearly $1 billion over the next year. Amazon is the second-largest private employer in the United States after Walmart Inc. Amazon employed more than 1.1 million people in the U.S. at the end of 2021. As of June 30, the company had more than 1.5 million total employees. Most of those employees are hourly workers who pack and ship merchandise or work in retail stores such as Whole Foods Market and Amazon Fresh.The company is also expanding access to a program that allows employees to get paid more often than once or twice a month, according to the statement.Amazon is facing employee activism and unions at some of its facilities, including a warehouse in Albany, N.Y., where a vote is scheduled for next month. The company is contesting an election last April in which more than 8,000 workers at the warehouse in Staten Island, N.Y., won the right to be represented by a union.Amazon shares on NASDAQ rose 3.15% to $118.01 a share in trading on Sept. 28, and are momentarily losing 1.47% ($116.28) in premarket trading on Sept. ...
"History repeats itself" is a well-known expression, which is based on the hypothesis that the development of society is a cycle of certain events and phenomena, and that history, like economics, is characterized by cyclicity. Considering that history does not only record the heyday of empires, and that the cycle of the economy always goes through crises, it becomes uncomfortable when the symptoms of past economic recessions begin to manifest themselves in modern times.The year 2022, a critical situation for Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world and the second largest bank in Switzerland. All analysts agree that if it goes bankrupt, the consequences will be similar to those of the bankruptcy of US Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The global financial crisis of 2008 was one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression, the consequences of which are still continuing in some countries.Credit Suisse in the global banking systemCredit Suisse is the second largest bank in Switzerland, a systemically important bank in the global financial system, the main dealer and currency counterparty to the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a leader in the global market of structured products.The stability of the entire banking system depends on banks like Credit Suisse. Their bankruptcy could have dire consequences for the entire financial system. Everyone remembers the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the bank filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, after rejecting the bailout. Many consider it the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2008.Credit Suisse problemsThere is now a growing murmur in the news background about problems at Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse has been involved in a large number of scandals in recent years. Last year, the bank suffered billions of dollars in losses with the bankruptcies of major clients Greensill Capital, a financial company, and Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund. Both of these failures were accompanied by allegaticredons of misconduct and potential fraud.Now the U.S. Department of Justice has taken up a new investigation: the bank is suspected of violating the law again. Former bankers have filed a compromise against the company that says it is once again helping customers evade taxes.Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Ulrich Körner said the bank is at a "critical juncture" as it prepares to restructure. The memo was sent out to staff after the company's CDS jumped to all-time highs and the stock price hit all-time lows.What could be the consequences of Credit Suisse's bankruptcyGiven Credit Suisse's role in the global banking system, realizing the risk of its bankruptcy would have global consequences:Shares and structured products issued by Credit Suisse would lose all their value. The bank is the largest player in the structured products market, which would cause the entire structured products market to implode.The chain reaction and collapse of such banks as Deutsche Bank, Credite Agricole, Unicredit, Barclays, Bank of China, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered and many intermediaries.The crisis of the global financial system and the collapse comparable to 2008.The return of many central banks to stimulating the economy through the printing press.The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was unexpected and shocked the financial system. The problems of Credit Suisse have been known for a long time, and there is a high probability that the Swiss government will help the bank in case the situation worsens. But there is a question of the size of this help.This year the ratio of tier 1 capital adequacy of Credit Suisse will make 13-14%, which is considered high for large financial companies and exceeds the regulatory norms. But Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that if the bank doesn't address its problems, it could face an $8 billion capital shortfall in 2024.Now, to reassure investors, the bank said it intends to buy eight issues of euro- and sterling-denominated bonds totaling up to $1 billion. It is also prepared to buy twelve issues of U.S. dollar-denominated securities totaling up to $2 billion.On October 27, 2022, the bank plans to present a detailed plan for its reorganization along with its quarterly results.ConclusionThroughout its history, mankind has gone through numerous crises. Each crisis is unique in its cause, depth and duration. But what all crises have in common is that they end. A recession is always followed by recovery and growth.What does an investor need to know and what should he prepare for? Crises are always accompanied by a decline in the stock markets. That is why it is important for an investor to take care of maximum protection of his capital. First of all, you need to maximize the share of protective assets in your investment ...
Apple CEO Tim Cook said that the word "meta-universe" is still misunderstood by the vast majority of people in the world. That's why Apple is trying to avoid the term. The company has mentioned it once. But Meta (recognized as an extremist organization) has used the word "meta-universe" 36 times in its reports this year.And before, Apple was not afraid to set trends and create demand where there was none. Apparently, Meta, which is not afraid to use new words, will now be in charge. Moreover, metaworld is not just an abstract term, but quite specific tasks and solutions (VR-helmets, 3D-graphics, software and so on), on which many companies work.Roblox Metawell (NYSE: RBLX)This is a publicly traded company whose meta-villain is already built and popular today, while others have it only as plans for the future. A share of the company is worth $38 -- nearly five times cheaper than it was at the peak of market hype (November 2021). Last year we underestimated the enthusiasm of the market by half - the price soared to $141. Accordingly, this value over a 3-5 year horizon reflects the potential value of the stock. Analysts emphasize the opportunity offered to users: they can build their own games and applications with the help of an internal constructor. Anyone can work with the platform thanks to a simple interface and flexible functionality.Investing in meta-universes through Unity Software (NYSE: U)Developer of a 3D video game engine. The company's stock is now worth $36.6 - six times cheaper than its peak value (also reached in November 2021), and even cheaper than the low end of its IPO range ($44). At the same time, the company's revenues are twice as high as the 2019 IPO it reported.Microsoft Metasites (NASDAQ: MSFT)Last year generated $198 billion in revenue and $72 billion in profit. With a capitalization of $1.8 trillion, it is the largest and most resilient maker of software, hardware game software and games. As this company's history shows, if it doesn't manage to become a leading player in its target market right away, it still takes a significant share of it over time.Investing in Meta (NASDAQ: META)Zuckerberg is serious and plans to create his own meta universe using all available resources. He's got the makings for it: 3 billion monthly active social media users, ownership of Oculus, the company that makes VR helmets, and enough cash flow to service it all. But so far, the reality lab division (those meta universes) has spent $10 billion on revenues of only $2.3 ...
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that bitcoin is impractical as a means of payment. While cryptocurrencies are not being calculated massively. But today, large companies not only use blockchain, but also accept crypto as payment:Coca-Cola. In 2020, the corporation's Asia-Pacific division announced that it would allow customers in Australia and New Zealand to buy drinks with bitcoin and other coins. Payment is available through devices that accept digital payments.PayPal is the first payment system to add cryptocurrency for transactions. The company acts as an intermediary: the service will exchange cryptocurrency for ordinary dollars at the internal exchange rate, which already includes the cost of conversion.Visa and Mastercard, following PayPal, thought about the possibility of conducting transactions with cryptocurrencies. The systems focus on stablecoins, which have collateral in the form of real assets.Shopify is a platform for creating online stores. Thanks to the developers, the owners of these stores can accept cryptocurrency.Emirates. The airline from the UAE intends to accept bitcoins as payment. Moreover, Emirates will add its own NFT tokens to the site. This is not the first airline operating with cryptocurrencies. Latvian airBaltic has been selling tickets for the crypt for several years.Balenciaga, Gucci, Tag Heuer are also starting to accept cryptocurrency. Moreover, the new payment method will be available not only online, but also in regular stores using QR codes. And the first major retailer that started accepting the crypt was Overstock.Brazilian developer Gafisa announced that now an apartment can be bought for bitcoins. So the company wants to attract investors from other countries, and the cryptocurrency helps to transfer funds quickly and ...
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Against the background of geopolitical tensions around Ukraine, the US and Russian authorities are considering plans for possible sanctions against each other. Reuters previously reported that the White House is thinking about a complete ban on exports to Russia of semiconductors manufactured using American technologies. Such a ban may be imposed in the event of an invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation.At the same time, the Biden administration warned semiconductor manufacturers: they may face a shortage of the main components for the production of chips, namely C4F6 gas, neon and palladium.Neon is used to produce lasers that are used in microchips. Palladium is used in sensors and memory chips. And all this is largely supplied to the USA from Russia.According to the Techcet research group, neon is a byproduct of Russian steel production. Then it is exported to Ukraine, where it is additionally cleaned, and from there it is sent to the USA. If we talk about specific figures, 35% of palladium supplied to the USA is produced in Russia, and Ukraine accounts for more than 90% of neon supplies to the USA. If the United States restricts the import of semiconductors, Russia in response to this may restrict the import of raw materials for their production.What is the result?If the United States implements such a scenario, then prices for all electronics, in particular smartphones, laptops and PCs, will increase significantly. At the same time, if Russia restricts the supply of palladium and neon, the global shortage of semiconductors that we are currently seeing will only worsen. Market participants expect that in such a scenario, supply chains will not completely stop, but prices and the shortage of components will increase significantly.Against the background of all the news, some chip manufacturers have already begun to revise their supply chains in order to replace imports from Russia with more reliable suppliers. Although Intel (INTC), one of the largest processor manufacturers, said that it does not expect any influence of geopolitics on neon supplies.Opinion of analystsAll of the above is still guesswork and analysis of possible scenarios that can only be realized in the worst case. Most likely, all this will remain at the discussion stage, since an invasion scenario is unlikely.Despite this, a number of changes may occur in the semiconductor industry at the moment. Manufacturers will review their supply chains, which may harm Russian export companies, in particular, Norilsk Nickel (GMKN).Also, due to the alarming news, the prices of neon and palladium can fluctuate greatly. For example, in the early spring of 2014, against the background of unrest in Ukraine, neon prices increased by 600% at the moment. If this growth is repeated, the costs of semiconductor manufacturers may increase, which will worsen the shortage of ...