AUDUSD: The asset is testing the 0.6650 markThe AUDUSD currency pair is trading slightly higher, testing the 0.6654 area. We remind you that at the end of the previous week, the asset was trading under the strong influence of "bears", updating local lows for March 16, which was preceded by the publication of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector, which strengthened the corrective sentiment for the US currency.Meanwhile, business activity in Australia also failed to demonstrate a strong position. Thus, the value of the services sector from the Commonwealth Bank in March adjusted to 48.2 points from 50.7 points, while analysts estimated a correction to 49.9 points, the manufacturing industry showed a decrease to 48.7 points from 50.5 points, contrary to the forecast of a slowdown to 50.3 points, and business activity on the composite index to 48.1 points from 50.6 points. Tomorrow, March 28, market participants intend to study the February retail sales statistics, providing for a likely drawdown of dynamics to 0.4% from 1.9%.Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6624, 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500.USDJPY: Japanese inflation signals a slowdownThe USDJPY currency pair shows a mixed trend in the morning session, testing the mark of 130.50. The trading instrument recorded positions in a moderate decline, updating the local minimum for February 3. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained support against the background of the release of positive statistics of the March business activity index.In particular, the Japanese consumer price index for February showed a significant decrease in dynamics to 3.3% from 4.3% in the past, with estimates of 4.1%. Core inflation, which does not take into account the cost of food group goods and energy, increased positions to 3.5% from 3.2%, contrary to experts' forecast of 3.4%. Moreover, business activity in the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank in March rose to 48.6 points from 47.7 points, exceeding market expectations in the area of 47.5 points. However, the correction of values in a positive way still does not allow consumer prices to reach the target mark of the Central Bank of Japan at 2.00%. The leadership in the dynamics of price growth is held by the food sector and essential goods, but market participants remain hopeful that the regulator will reconsider the current rhetoric of "pigeons" and will begin to correct percentage indicators after the change of leadership. Preliminary business activity statistics for March turned out to be contradictory, as the industry shows growth to 48.6 points from 46.7 points, however, continuing to show stagnation, and the service sector strengthened to 54.2 points from 54.0 points.Resistance levels: 131.00, 132.00, 133.00, 134.00.Support levels: 130.00, 129.62, 128.62, 128.00.GBPUSD: Pound intends to restore Friday's lossesThe GBPUSD trading instrument is developing a weak upward trend, in an attempt to correct after the decline the day before.Recall that at the end of the previous week, the British currency was losing ground against the background of the release of a block of macroeconomic data from the UK on the March business activity index. Thus, the S&P Global services sector on the index showed a correction to 52.8 points, contrary to analysts' estimates of 53.0 points, the manufacturing sector decreased in the indicator to 48.0 points from 49.3 points, contrary to the forecast of 49.8 points, the composite index – to 52.2 points from 53.1 points, while experts expect 52.8 points. High consumer prices and Bank of England interest rates continue to put pressure on the national economy. Currently, the United Kingdom remains the only member of the G7, where economic indicators have not been able to restore their pre-crisis value and continue to record double-digit inflation. Meanwhile, retail sales for February showed positive dynamics, strengthening by 1.2% for the month with an expectation of 0.2%, and for the year losses amounted to 3.5%, which exceeded forecasts in the area of -4.7%.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.EURUSD: EU manufacturing sector declinesAgainst the background of an active drawdown at the end of the previous week, the EURUSD trading instrument is testing the 1.0766 mark.Weak macroeconomic indicators were a negative factor for the asset. Thus, the business activity of the German manufacturing sector in March adjusted from 46.3 points to 44.4 points, which did not justify the market's assessment of growth to 47.0 points, reducing the aggregate indicator of all members of the European Alliance from 48.6 points to 47.1 points, contrary to expectations of growth to 49.0 points. At the beginning of the week, investors intend to evaluate the February statistics on consumer loans in the European region, for which preliminary forecasts provide for a decrease to 3.4% from the previous 3.6% in annual terms. In addition, the market is interested in the previously announced output on business optimism and economic expectations in Germany from the IFO for March, the value of which may show a correction to 90.9 points from 91.1 points.Resistance levels: 1.0860, 1.1030.Support levels: 1.0710, ...
EURUSD: investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decisionsA slight correction of the US dollar allowed EURUSD to test the level of 1.0769.There is no stimulus for fundamental changes in the dynamics of the euro, which was confirmed by the latest macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the current economic environment in Germany according to the ZEW index for March was -46.5 points, which is lower than the previous 45.1 points. The value of the economic sentiment declined from 28.1 points to 13.0 points. Such figures were an "anchor" for similar indicators of all countries in the euro area, which reached 10.0 points from 29.7 points. Analysts call the crisis in the banking sector the main reason for the correction.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.GBPUSD: correctional impulse developmentGBPUSD is showing a mixed trend being around 1.2230 being under the pressure of the "bullish" impulse which came earlier, when the asset rebounded from the local high of February 2.Investors are waiting for the publication of the statistics on consumer prices for February in the UK. Market expectations envisage decline of the value dynamics to 9.8% from 10.1% in the annual index, and the monthly index may show the growth of 0.6%, having earlier decreased by the similar indicator for January, at that the position of the core inflation indicator may remain at the level of 5.8%. In addition, economists want to assess retail price data; February's forecast is that the value may show an increase for the month to 0.6% from 0.0%, and for the year a slight correction to 13.2% from 13.4%.The kingdom's regulator was positive about Swiss authorities' support for the merger of two large-scale credit reproducers, Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG, the former of which faced the threat of closure amid insufficient liquidity due to massive outflows of funds from its accounts. According to comments from officials in the government, Credit Suisse Group AG's U.K. branch employs about 5,000 full-time workers, and the institution itself holds the largest number of employees in the investment sector in the City of London.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.USDCHF: Saudi National Bank is reviewing its investment in Credit Suisse GroupThe USDCHF trade instrument showed corrective moods in the morning session, completing the negative dynamics of the previous day due to weak activity on the market, where investors are waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary issues.A summit of Swiss National Bank officials on interest rates is due tomorrow, March 23. The preliminary forecast of the analysts is unambiguous - the indicator will remain at the same level of 1.0%, taking into account a rather low value of the national inflation. Experts discuss the merger of banking conglomerates UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, which is estimated at 3.0 billion francs. The takeover is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year, as the process will bypass protocol approval from the institutions' shareholders, but the government has committed 9.0 billion francs to cover possible costs. Meanwhile, the largest investor for Credit Suisse Group AG, Saudi National Bank has lost 80.0% of its value since buying a 9.9% block of securities worth 1.4 billion francs last fall.Resistance levels are 0.9258, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9070.Gold analyticsThe precious metal is correcting at 1940.00 amid significant declines of the last two sessions in a row, which allowed the asset to retreat from the record high of April 2022 and the fundamental resistance threshold of 2000.00.Gold positions were pressured by rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which was only intensified by massive profit taking on long contracts ahead of the Fed officials' meeting on monetary policy. Preliminary estimates of analysts foresee the strengthening of the interest rate by no more than 0.25%, not ruling out that the agency may announce a temporary pause at all, refusing to tighten monetary parameters in the short term. The latter move may be taken wishing to deprive the growing crisis in the financial sector of further momentum, but investors will not accept such a decision. Still about 82% of economists agree that the regulator will increase the price threshold of borrowing by 0.25% and refrain from forecasting a further correction at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00, 2015.30.Support levels: 1930.00, 1914.44, 1900.00, ...
While waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, GBP/USD is moving without any clear direction near the 1.2230 level.Prior to the Fed's release and Jerome Powell's press conference, market participants will pay attention to British inflation data. Analysts expect a decline from 10.1% to 9.8% (y/y) and an increase of 0.6% (m/m).Core inflation is likely to remain at 5.8%.But of course, the main event of the day will be the news from the United States. The Fed has a difficult task. On the one hand the regulator has to continue the fight against inflation, on the other hand it has to pay attention to the problems of the financial sector and not to allow the banks to go bankrupt.Analysts mostly believe that the Fed will choose the "middle" option and raise the rate not by 50 but by 25 basis points to 5.00%. Investors want to see from Jerome Powell's speech whether the Fed will end its monetary restriction cycle or take a pause. Or maybe the central bank will continue to raise the rate to the previously indicated targets.The Bank of England will hold a rate hike of 25 basis points tomorrow, although today's inflation report might influence the regulator's decision.Technical Analysis GBP/USDBollinger Band indicator is rising moderately. MACD indicator remains in the positive range. Stochastic Oscillator from the top down is testing the 80% level and trying to get out of the overbought area.Today is an eventful day, each of which can completely cancel the signals of technical analysis. At the same time Forex trading based on the news is risky and for traders who prefer calm position trading, the best option is to stay out of the market.For the followers of "technique", a break-down of the resistance at 1.2283 will be a buy signal. The target is at 1.2400. Stop-loss is taken out at 1.2230.It is advisable to open short positions after the price fixes below support at 1.2yo176. Target level is 1.2100. Stop-loss is set at ...
GBPUSD: UK economic outlook assessed by the governmentTrading instrument GBPUSD is showing weak dynamics, trying to win back the losses of the last two sessions, in the backdrop of which the asset updated the local minimum of March 10. The pair traded around 1.2080, continuing to grow in anticipation of new stimulus for the correction.Earlier the head of financial authorities of the Kingdom Jerem Hunt provided the national budget for parliamentarians to study in order to stabilize economic indicators. Based on estimates based on OBR calculations, given the significant stabilization of energy costs reduction on an annual basis GDP showed a correction of only -0.2% instead of the -1.5% expected the day before, and will grow 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. Analysts expect the index to adjust for growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, which rules out the economy going into a technical recession this year, as expected the day before. The consumer inflation index should decline to 2.9% by early next year, which is well below its peak value of 10.1%. Moreover, the spring budget includes a bailout package for families who are prevented from returning to work by rising child-support costs. Meanwhile, a lifetime cap on tax-free retirement contributions is announced for April.Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2140, 1.2176, 1.2236.Support levels: 1.2054, 1.2000, 1.1933, 1.1875.USDJPY: Bank of Japan estimates the inflation outlook for the fiscal year 2024The trade shows a moderate decline in the downside momentum from earlier and the yen is limited upside due to weak macro statistics from Japan.For instance, the index industrial production for January showed a decline of 3.1% from the previous -2.3%, with the market estimating the figure at -2.3%. Monthly decline momentum accelerated to -5.3% from -4.6%, disappointing experts who expected neutral dynamics. Investors also noted rising exports for February by 6.5% after strengthening by 3.5% in the previous month at market estimates of 7.1%. Imports strengthened by 8.3% over the same period, significantly behind the previous month's 17.5%, while the forecast was for a positive 12.2%. A notable recovery in Japan's exports significantly narrowed the trade deficit for February to -897.7 billion yen from -3498.6 billion yen, surpassing experts' estimates of -1069.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 134.00, 134.54, 135.57, 136.50.Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.00.USDCAD: The pair is testing the level 1.3750.During the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USDCAD shows a moderate decline at the level of 1.3750.Earlier, the U.S. dollar showed significant strengthening, allowing to fully offset losses from the beginning of the week amid reports on the liquidation of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which caused a barrage of criticism from investors, collapsing the quotes. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, in turn, hastened to stabilize the situation, promising guaranteed payments for all lost deposits and announcing additional measures for emergency funding of the banking sector in order to avoid similar events in the future. Economists agree that the financial authority will take a break in the cycle of systemic tightening of monetary parameters and refrain from the decision to strengthen the interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the meeting announced for next week.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900 and 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600.Gold PricesThe precious metal is actively strengthening for the second week in a row, making a new high of the last two months, reaching the level of 1937.50. Gold increased its attractiveness among investors, as a hedge asset based on two factors: the developing banking crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Investors are most concerned about the likely lack of liquidity in the banking sector, because the liquidation of Signature Bank and SVB may provoke a similar process around the world, followed by a decrease in the volume of loans issued, business activity will noticeably decrease, and the global economy will come under serious pressure. According to investors, such concerns are not unfounded, especially since a negative trend is beginning to be observed in the eurozone, ignoring the joint statements of officials at various levels about the fact that the banking sector is protected and the stability of the financial system is at a reliable level. During the last week, UniCredit Group, FinecoBank S.p.A., Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Credit Suisse Group actively lost positions in the markets, and the latter was at risk of bankruptcy, which forced the Swiss Central Bank to allocate an additional 50.0 billion. francs to stimulate the institution. The general trend across the regions allows for the manifestation of a crisis situation in the short term, despite the efforts of the authorities to stabilize the situation, and investors will have to look for more stable assets, among which gold becomes more attractive.Resistance levels: 1937.50, 1968.75, 2000.00.Support levels: 1875.00, 1843.75, ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
