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Trading signals and online forecasts GBP/USD

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Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024 GBP/USD: Bank of England is expected to lower the rate on June 20In the context of the weakening of the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at the level of 1.2788.However, the British pound is also losing ground amid disappointing economic data: in May, the indicator of business activity in the UK services sector fell to 52.9 points from the previous 55.0, and in construction rose to 54.7 points from 53.0. The composite index decreased to 53.0 points from 54.1, remaining in the "green" zone. The pound is also under pressure from the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the Bank of England, especially given that the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have already made similar rate cuts of 25 basis points.As for the US dollar, its quotes continue to fall, reaching the level of 103.90 USDX in the morning. This reflects investors' uncertainty after the latest data on the slowdown in the US labor market, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve System in shaping monetary policy. For example, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 229.0 thousand from 221.0 thousand last week, approaching an annual maximum, while labor costs in the first quarter amounted to 4.0%, which was lower than expectations of 4.7%. In such circumstances, the prospects for a stronger dollar look unlikely, and the current trend may continue.Resistance levels: 1.2810, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2753, 1.2620.USD/CHF: unemployment rate in Switzerland is gradually decreasingThe USD/CHF currency pair continues to move in a corrective downtrend, settling at 0.8897 due to the weakening of the US dollar and the slowdown in the strengthening of the Swiss franc after the latest economic reports.According to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the unemployment rate in May remained at 2.3%, unchanged from previous figures. There were 105,465 thousand unemployed people in the registration cards of employment centers, which is 1,492 thousand less than in April and 17,389 thousand more than in the same period last year. In May, 176,422 thousand registered job seekers were registered, which is 1,148 thousand less than in April, but 22,954 thousand more than a year ago. These data indicate a stabilization and some improvement in the labor market situation in Switzerland.Support levels: 0.8882, 0.8743.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.9023.USD/CAD: focus is on the May report on employment in the United StatesThe USD/CAD currency pair shows ambiguous trading movements, hovering around the 1.3670 level, with an overall low level of market activity in anticipation of new economic incentives.Today, the US labor market report for May is due to be published, which may have a significant impact on the further actions of the Federal Reserve System regarding monetary policy in 2024. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agriculture will increase from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage, which affects the inflation rate, is expected to be 0.3% compared with the previous value of 0.2%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.9%. Investors' attention is focused on business activity data in May: the index in the services sector rose from 51.3 to 54.8 points, and the composite index — from 51.3 to 54.5 points. These indicators indicate the recovery of the national economy, despite the strict policy of the regulator, which supports high inflation risks and the likelihood of maintaining the key interest rate at a high level during the year.Resistance levels: 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550.AUD/USD: recovery of the Australian dollar by the end of the weekThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a corrective movement, trying to overcome the 0.6675 level up: the market remains active, despite the preliminary expectation of the May report on the American labor market. Forecasts suggest an increase in the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage and unemployment rate are likely to remain at 3.9%.Meanwhile, economic indicators from China are once again supporting the Australian dollar, indicating a faster recovery of the Chinese economy. Thus, exports to China increased by 7.6% in May after 1.5% in the previous month, while imports decreased from 8.4% to 1.8%, with initial estimates of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade surplus from $72.35 billion to $82.62 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $73.0 billion.In Australia, on the contrary, May trade showed a decrease: exports fell by 2.5% after a 0.6% decline a month earlier, and imports decreased by 7.2% after an increase of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade balance from 4.84 billion Australian dollars to 6.55 billion. Australian Finance Minister Jim Chalmers attributed the country's low GDP growth to high interest rates, persistent inflation and global uncertainty, but noted that the economy had managed to avoid recession, unlike many OECD countries.Resistance levels: 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6667, 0.6646, 0.6622, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/EUR on Wednesday, June 5th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/EUR on Wednesday, June 5th EUR/USD: euro is losing ground after the May statistics on the German labor marketThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating around the 1.0880 mark. Yesterday, the instrument showed a slight decrease, retreating from local highs on March 21, despite a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the United States. Investors drew attention to the increase in the number of unemployed in Germany in May from 11.0 thousand (revised from 10.0 thousand) to 25.0 thousand, while analysts predicted that the indicator would remain at the level of 10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 5.9%. According to the Federal Employment Agency, 702.0 thousand vacancies were opened in May, which is 65.0 thousand less than a year ago. At the same time, the shortage of qualified personnel remains in 183 out of 200 key professions. Experts fear that the problems in the German labor market may worsen in the medium term due to the deterioration of the demographic situation.Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity in the services sector and industrial inflation in the eurozone. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held on Thursday at 14:15 (GMT+2), from which analysts expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25%. At the same time, the regulator may announce more cautious further steps, given the ongoing inflationary pressure in some sectors of the region's economy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0842, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: rhetoric of the Fed and the Bank of England is reflected in the dynamics of the pairThe GBP/USD pair has been growing for the second month in a row, updating the March high of 1.2817.Earlier, investors feared that the US Federal Reserve would abandon monetary policy easing this year due to rising inflationary pressures in the first quarter. However, the latest macroeconomic data encouraged them: in April, the key core index of private consumption expenditures fell from 0.3% to 0.2%, job growth slowed to 8.059 million, and the May index of manufacturing activity fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. As a result of weakening inflation and a possible economic downturn, officials may switch to a "dovish" course, and most experts expect the first rate cut in September and another before the end of the year.The Bank of England, which previously planned to reduce the cost of borrowing in the summer, may postpone the adjustment to the end of the year, as in April the consumer price index rose by 2.3% instead of the expected 2.1%, and the economy remains stable: in May, business activity indices continue to grow, albeit more slowly. Additionally, the situation is complicated by the parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, so officials have taken a break and do not comment on further actions.Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061.Support levels: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490.NZD/USD: problem mortgages in New Zealand increased by 25% since the beginning of the yearThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from a recent correction attempt, which did not allow it to gain a foothold at local highs from March 8. Now the quotes are testing the level of 0.6185, and investors are waiting for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), the May report from ADP on private sector employment will be released, and at the end of the week, the final data from the US Department of Labor will be released. It is expected that the number of employees will decrease from 192.0 thousand to 173.0 thousand. At 16:00 (GMT+2), statistics on the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be published, the projected growth of which from 49.4 to 50.5 points may affect investors' expectations regarding the easing of the Fed's monetary policy by the end of the year. The main scenario assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points with a probability of 51.0% in September.Craig Rennie, head of policy at the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, noted that changing tax conditions could stimulate a decrease in demand in the economy, as high-income companies would not be able to distribute funds among shareholders. In his opinion, regular changes in duties will be more useful for the economy than adjusting the interest rate. He stressed that although the increase in the cost of borrowing has somewhat reduced demand, it has also contributed to the accumulation of savings by citizens in conditions of high inflation. This is confirmed by data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, according to which the volume of non-performing housing loans in April increased by 7.7% to $ 1.9 billion. Since the beginning of the year, this figure has increased by $ 384.0 million, or 25.3%, and over the past 12 months — by $ 796.0 million, or 72.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6230, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6175, 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: data on salaries and business activity in Japan met with a neutral reaction from investorsAgainst the background of the weakening of the US dollar and positive Japanese statistics, the USD/JPY pair is correcting downwards, trading near the level of 155.58.The yen is correcting after strengthening at the beginning of the week, and reports on wages and business activity were perceived by investors neutrally: in April, the total income of employees increased by 2.1% after the previous 1.0%, and the average annual salary increased by 2.1% instead of the projected 1.7%. Overtime pay decreased by 0.6%, which is almost the same as last year's 0.5%. Thus, workers' incomes and salaries increased in the spring, supporting the local recovery. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 54.3 to 53.8 points, remaining in the "green" zone and is unlikely to significantly affect quotes. In this situation, the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy, although an interest rate increase is still unlikely.Resistance levels: 156.40, 158.40.Support levels: 154.80, ...
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Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, May 29, 2024
GBP/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, May 29, 2024 In Asian trading on Wednesday, GBP/USD is trading around the 1.2752 mark, working out a downward correction after updating local highs for March 21. Traders are closing some long positions ahead of the publication of April inflation statistics in the United States.Data on the personal consumption expenditure price index, which is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the course of monetary policy, is expected on Friday. Analysts do not expect big changes compared to the March data, when the base indicator grew by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% on an annual basis. At 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will evaluate data on personal income and expenses for April: income growth is expected to slow from 0.5% to 0.3%, and expenses from 0.8% to 0.3%. In the UK, statistics on consumer lending will be released at 10:30 (GMT+2). Volumes are likely to decrease from £1.577 billion to £1,500 billion in April, and net consumer lending may increase from £1.8 billion to £2.0 billion pounds. The number of approved mortgage applications, according to Nationwide Building Society, will grow from 61,325 thousand to 61,500 thousand.So far, market participants are focusing on May retail price data from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): prices in the largest stores increased by 0.6% after an April decrease of 0.8%, which is the lowest pace in the last two and a half years. The cost of non—food products fell by 0.8%, and food products - by 3.2% from 3.4%. Experts of the consortium expect that inflationary pressure in the country will continue to weaken, and consumer sentiment will improve.On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), GDP data for the first quarter will be published in the United States: the annual rate is projected to decrease from 1.6% to 1.3%, which may increase pressure on the US Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.Technical analysis for GBP/USD for todayThe Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart shows active growth. The MACD indicator is rising less actively, but retains a buy signal. The Stochastic oscillator, approaching the 80 mark, is trying to turn down.Short positions can be opened after a confident breakdown down to the level of 1.2734. the target is located at 1.2650. We set the stop loss at 1.2771.A rebound from the 1.2734 level and an upward breakout of the 1.2771 resistance may be a signal for the formation of long positions with a target of 1.2850. In this case, we will set the stop loss to ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22 EUR/USD: the exchange rate tends to break out of the downward range of 1.0880–1.0560During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the level of 1.0850. Neutral macroeconomic data do not allow the euro to significantly strengthen its position.In April, the producer price index in Germany increased by 0.2%, as in the previous month, which was lower than the projected growth of 0.3%. This led to a decrease in the annual rate from -2.9% to -3.3%, against expectations of -3.2%. Such negative dynamics contribute to a further slowdown in consumer inflation, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with an additional argument for lowering interest rates at the June meeting. The EU data also show diverse results: in March, the volume of construction decreased from 0.38% to 0.10%, while the labor cost index increased from 3.40% to 4.90% in the first quarter. The EU's trade balance increased from 22.8 billion euros to 24.1 billion euros in March.Resistance levels: 1.0885, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0705.GBP/USD: annual UK inflation slowed to 2.3% in AprilThe GBP/USD pair is showing an upward trend, updating local highs since March 21. Investors are closely watching the UK's April inflation statistics. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.1%, and from 0.6% to 0.3% month-on-month, which also exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The producer price index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, increased from 0.7% to 1.1%, which is slightly lower than the projected 1.2%. These data may encourage the Bank of England to begin easing monetary policy this summer, as previously mentioned by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the regulator, and Hugh Pill, chief economist.Yesterday, investors analyzed the May index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI), which fell from -23.0 to -33.0 points, against expectations of -20.0 points. This was the fastest decline since November, but many manufacturers expect the situation to improve in the summer months, while not predicting a significant price increase. In the near future, the minutes of the next hearing of the inflation report will be published in the UK, which will help to understand the reaction of officials to the latest price data and clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut in the coming months. With the opening of the American session, investors' attention will switch to April statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States, where growth is expected from 4.19 million to 4.21 million after a previous decrease of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810, 1.2850.Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency shows growth againThe NZD/USD pair is showing active growth, recovering from the "bearish" sentiment prevailing at the beginning of this week: the instrument is testing the level of 0.6125 for an upward breakdown, which is facilitated by the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50% and positively assessed the effect of the measures already taken to combat high inflation. RBNZ representatives expressed confidence that the current restrictive policy will reduce inflation to the target range of 1.0–3.0% by the end of 2024. The accompanying statement noted that the slowdown in prices in the service sector is slower than expected, so the transition to "dovish" rhetoric is not advisable yet. The pressure on the labor market is gradually easing, which leads to an increase in unemployment and lower wages, which also helps to reduce inflationary risks.Despite the market reaction to the RBNZ meeting, many investors are in a hurry to take profits, closing some long positions, preferring to wait for today's publication of the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve. These documents may clarify the prospects for an interest rate cut by the US regulator in the second half of 2024. The current main scenario assumes the beginning of monetary policy easing in September or November, and at least two reductions of 25 basis points each are expected by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.Gold market overviewThe price of gold has been steadily growing for the fourth month in a row: on Monday, quotes updated annual highs around 2449.89, but then rolled back, and the current positive dynamics is restrained by comments from US Federal Reserve officials.Investors had hoped that the publication of April inflation data in the United States would prompt the regulator to start lowering interest rates in September, but recent statements by Fed representatives disappointed the market. Economists recognized the decrease in inflationary pressure as a positive factor, but noted that the April data was not enough to correct monetary policy. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve for Supervision, Michael Barra, stressed that the data at the beginning of the year were "disappointing", so there are no grounds for lowering interest rates yet. In the evening, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which may shed light on the prospects for further actions by the regulator and cause serious fluctuations in the market.Resistance levels: 2437.50, 2500.00, 2562.50.Support levels: 2348.00, 2250.00, ...
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Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
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