GBP/USD: the regulator has maintained the current rate of 4.75%The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2480 mark after the Bank of England expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.75%. The decision was supported by a majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee - six out of nine participants, while three supported a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, assuming only two supporters of such a measure.Analysts note a change in the emphasis in the regulator's rhetoric from "unstable" to "balanced", which indicates a possible continuation of adjustments in 2025. The Bank of England expressed concern about the acceleration of inflation, noting an increase in the consumer price index from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and revised down its GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to experts, the regulator may reduce the rate to 3.50% over the next year in order to adapt to changing economic conditions.The US dollar is showing steady growth, reaching the level of 108.10 in the USDX index. The dynamics are supported by strong macroeconomic statistics: US GDP increased from 3.0% to 3.1% in the third quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 220 thousand, exceeding expectations, and repeat applications decreased to 1.874 million. There was also an increase in sales in the secondary housing market in November by 4.8%, to 4.15 million, which almost reached the March peak of 4.19 million, strengthening the position of the US currency.Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2300.USD/CHF: Swiss economy expects production growth of 1.7% by 2026The USD/CHF pair is trading in a mixed mode, being at 0.8980. After the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States, the instrument shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local peaks recorded in early July.Statistics provided by Switzerland the day before showed a noticeable drop in exports in November from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports decreased from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus decreased from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's economy was previously forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. These figures remain below the average annual growth of the Swiss economy, which is 1.8%. SECO analysts emphasize that next year's economic recovery is likely to depend on domestic demand. This is due to the weakening of interest in Swiss goods from key trading partners such as Germany and China, which limits the prospects for the export sector.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey may fall to 47.50% as early as December 26In the morning, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, reaching 35.1500 and updating historical highs. The strengthening of the dollar is associated with expectations of a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which supports demand for the US currency.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to internal economic challenges. The Central Bank of Turkey is considering the possibility of further reducing the interest rate, which has been held at 50.00% since March. Despite a slight slowdown, annual inflation in the country remains high, reaching 47.0% in November after peaking at 75.45% in May. The authorities plan to reduce the rate to 35.00% in 2024, which creates the prerequisites for a soft monetary policy. Analysts expect that at the meeting scheduled for December 26, the Turkish regulator may reduce the rate by 250 basis points from the current 50.00% to 47.50%. However, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan had previously refrained from making specific statements, saying that the final decision would depend on current economic data and the inflation forecast.Resistance levels: 35.1500, 35.2167, 35.3000, 35.4500.Support levels: 35.1000, 35.0500, 35.0000, 34.9500.NZD/USD: consolidation near minimum levelsThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.5625 level. Market activity remains low after a sharp drop in the instrument on Wednesday, caused by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the mood of traders.Today's data from New Zealand does not provide significant support to the New Zealand dollar. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose slightly from 99.8 to 100.2 points in December, exports rose from $5.61 billion to $6.48 billion in November, and imports declined from $7.27 billion to $6.92 billion. As a result, the trade deficit decreased to -0.437 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of -1.951 billion dollars, but did not give a serious impetus to the instrument. A day earlier, New Zealand's GDP data for the third quarter was published. On an annualized basis, the economic growth rate slowed by 1.5% after a 0.5% decline a month earlier, although analysts' expectations were -0.4%. In quarterly terms, the indicator increased from -1.1% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecasts of experts who expected a decrease to -0.4%. Although these data indicate some recovery, they do not yet have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.5661, 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5607, 0.5563, 0.5511, ...
GBP/USD analysis on December 20, 2024On Friday, after the decision of the Bank of England to leave the interest rate at 4.75%, GBP/USD is adjusted near the 1.2480 mark. This decision was supported by six of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the regulator. Financiers are afraid of a new round of inflation growth. Three members preferred a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be more than analysts expected (two votes in favor of a cut were expected).Experts note a change in the Central Bank's rhetoric in assessing inflation and the labor market: from an "unstable" to a "balanced" situation. This may indicate a possible policy adjustment next year. At the same time, representatives of the Bank of England pointed to an increase in inflation.: The consumer price index rose from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter were lowered from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to forecasts, the interest rate may fall to 3.50% in 2025.The US dollar index strengthened to 108.10, which is higher than yesterday's highs. The US economy grew by 3.1% in the third quarter against the projected 2.8%. There is also a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits to 220 thousand (against the forecast of 230 thousand), and repeated applications fell to 1.874 million. The volume of sales in the secondary housing market increased by 4.8% and reached 4.15 million, which is higher than expected and close to the highs of March (4.19 million).Technical analysisOn the daily chart, the pair is approaching the support line of the descending channel with the boundaries of 1.2700–1.2300. The main forex indicators confirm the sell signal - the fast EMA lines on the alligator indicator diverge from the signal line, and the awesome oscillator (AO) histogram forms corrective bars in the negative zone.Trading recommendationssale is relevant after the breakdown and consolidation of the pair below the level of 1.2450 with a target of 1.2300. The stop loss is 1.2520.buy is considered when the price rises and fixes above the level of 1.2530 with a target of 1.2700. The stop loss is ...
EUR/USD: the regulator in the USA adjusted the rate by 25 bp.The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust, trading around 1.0375 amid the strengthening of the US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the published data on a decrease in inflation.In November, the consumer price index in the eurozone fell from 0.3% to -0.3% on a monthly basis, and increased from 2.0% to 2.2% on an annual basis, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%. The basic indicator excluding energy and food products fell from 0.2% to -0.6% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.7% on an annual basis. These results strengthen the case for continued rate cuts, which puts pressure on the euro.The US dollar strengthened to 107.80 on the USDX index after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25–4.50%. In addition, the regulator presented revised forecasts: inflation in 2024 is expected to reach 2.4% against 2.3% earlier, in 2025 — 2.5% instead of 2.1%. The GDP growth forecast has been improved to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. The average rate by the end of 2025 is expected to be 4.4%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 3.9%, which is higher than previous estimates. In his statement, the head of the Fed noted that the US economy remains stable, the labor market is cooling, and inflation has slowed significantly over the past two years, although it exceeds target levels. He also stressed that the risks to inflation are generally balanced, but the current dynamics may include temporary factors.Resistance levels: 1.0410, 1.0580.Support levels: 1.0330, 1.0180.GBP/USD: UK has joined the CPTPP Economic AllianceDuring morning trading, the GBP/USD pair is held at 1.2590, partially recovering the losses incurred the previous day. The increase in quotations is due to technical factors, but traders are taking a wait-and-see position before the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting scheduled for 14:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the regulator's management will probably decide to leave the key rate at 4.75%, with eight of the nine board members supporting this decision.Wednesday brought disappointment in the form of inflation data: the consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% in November, and the base indicator increased from 3.3% to 3.5%, which slightly exceeded forecasts. Such dynamics signal the possibility of further revision of monetary policy by the Bank of England if inflationary pressure persists or increases in the coming months.On December 15, the United Kingdom completed the process of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, becoming a full participant in it. Within the framework of the alliance, the country waived import duties on palm oil from Malaysia, and also facilitated a number of procedures for trade with other members of the agreement. This step underlines London's desire to strengthen international economic ties and develop partnerships with 11 other member states of the association.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of consolidation above the 30.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair fell below this level, which is due to the strengthening of the US currency.The decline in silver prices is taking place against the background of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System. Each step to lower the interest rate, accompanied by statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, puts pressure on the metals market. Powell stressed that the American economy is showing stability, and the forecast for GDP growth at the end of 2024 has been raised to 2.5% against the previously expected 2.0%. Moreover, the regulator is considering the possibility of a temporary pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing in order to strengthen control over inflation and bring it to a level below 2.0%. Such steps reduce the attractiveness of precious metals as a protective asset in conditions of stabilization of the economic situation.On December 18, the volume of silver futures trading decreased to 50.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the maximum values of December 11 and 12 — 126.0–127.0 thousand. A similar reduction is observed in the option position, which yesterday amounted to 8,145 thousand, down from a peak of 22,706 thousand last week. This may indicate that market participants are not confident that silver prices will continue to rise and prefer to close positions, waiting for clearer signals for further action.Resistance levels: 30.00, 31.40.Support levels: 29.00, 27.40.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are showing a sideways trend, remaining slightly above the level of 72.00. The instrument was under pressure due to the growth of the US currency, which reached an annual maximum after the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points and improved forecasts for economic growth by the end of the year.Investors drew attention to the agreement concluded between the Russian company Rosneft and the Indian giant Reliance Industries Ltd. The document provides for the transportation of 500.0 thousand barrels of oil daily to India for ten years, starting in 2025, which makes this deal the largest for the region. The implementation of the project will cover a significant share of Indian demand for hydrocarbons, and processed raw materials will probably be supplied to the countries of the European Union, filling the market deficit caused by sanctions against the Russian energy sector related to the conflict in Ukraine.Support levels: 71.23, 67.61.Resistance levels: 75.38, ...
In Thursday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2590 level, partially recovering the losses of the previous day. The upward trend is supported by the factors of John Murphy's technical analysis, however, market participants remain cautious in anticipation of the decision of the Bank of England, which will be announced today at 14:00 (GMT+2). Experts predict that eight of the nine members of the committee will vote to keep the current interest rate at 4.75%, without changing the policy.The pressure on the British pound increased yesterday after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% and clarified the forecast for 2025, pointing to two possible rate cuts instead of the previously estimated three. At the same time, Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, stressed that the probability of tightening monetary policy next year is extremely low. In addition, the Fed revised the unemployment forecast, reducing it from 4.4% to 4.2% for the current year, and also raised the GDP growth forecast to 2.5% for 2024.In the UK, fresh inflation data turned out to be higher than expected, which may affect the further policy of the Bank of England. In November, the consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and core inflation rose to 3.5%. This deviation from expectations by only 0.1% reinforces expectations of possible changes in monetary policy in the future.An important news for the UK economy was its official entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The country has lifted tariffs on palm oil imports from Malaysia and simplified trade procedures for union members. These steps indicate the UK's desire to integrate into the global economy and strengthen international ties with the TPP participants.Technical analysis for GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, indicators indicate mixed sentiment. The Bollinger bands begin to turn into a horizontal plane, signaling the instability of the price range. The MACD remains in the selling zone, and Stochastic shows signs of oversold pound, which creates correction risks.Trading recommendationsshort positions after the breakdown of the 1.2550 level down with a target of 1.2450. We will set the stop loss at 1.2600.buy will be relevant with a confident breakdown of 1.2600 up with a target of 1.2700. The stop loss is ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
