EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growthAs of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factorsDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rateDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.Gold market analysisAs of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.Support levels: $2,725.00, ...
GBP/USD: the market is preparing for a report on inflation in BritainThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2633 mark, showing a decline against the background of the continued strengthening of the US currency. The dynamics of the pair remains uncertain, due to the growing volatility ahead of key macroeconomic events.Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of inflation data in the UK, scheduled for Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 1.7% to 2.2%, exceeding the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%. This may strengthen the arguments for postponing interest rate cuts, especially given the current situation in the real estate market. Data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. indicate an increase in the average interest rate on a five-year fixed mortgage to 5.4955% against 5.4205% a week earlier, which increases the burden on households.Additional pressure on the UK economy is exerted by the tax increase announced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This decision complicates the choice for the Bank of England: either to maintain a "dovish" position to support business, or to strengthen measures to control inflation. Last week, Catherine Mann, a member of the board of the Bank of England, spoke out for the need to hold the current rate in order to reduce the risks of falling purchasing power, including against the background of possible changes in global trade policy after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2890.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan does not abandon the tight monetary policyThe USD/JPY pair shows a correction within the framework of an uptrend, trading near the 154.63 mark, which is associated with the strengthening of the position of the US currency against the background of increased expectations regarding monetary policy.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, commented on the situation for the first time after the conclusion of the US presidential election. He stressed that the regulator is ready to consider the possibility of further interest rate increases if key economic indicators meet forecasts. Ueda also noted that the current rate decision will depend on external factors, including the outcome of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. According to estimates, about 55% of experts believe that the Bank of Japan may raise the rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year, especially if the Fed decides to keep its rate at the same level. However, some analysts believe that the Japanese regulator may take a wait-and-see position due to potential risks.Among such risks, there is a slowdown in economic growth in China, which is an important trading partner of Japan, as well as the possibility of introducing new tariff barriers by the administration of US President Donald Trump. These measures may put pressure on Japan's export sector, which could strengthen the weakening of the yen. Nevertheless, despite external factors, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its commitment to a "hawkish" approach, trying to maintain economic stability in the face of external challenges.Resistance levels: 155.40, 158.30.Support levels: 153.60, 150.70.AUD/USD: the pair is moving towards an annual lowThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend, trading near the 0.6464 mark. Despite attempts by the Australian dollar to strengthen under the influence of favorable macroeconomic statistics, it is still close to its summer lows, reflecting continued pressure from global factors.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October. Employment growth amounted to 36.8 thousand, increasing the total figure to 14.537 million people. Full-time employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and part-time employment added 6.2 thousand, reaching 4.499 million. At the same time, the number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand, reaching 623.5 thousand people. The employment-to-total population ratio remained at 64.4%, while the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. These data indicate the stability of the labor market, but at the same time reflect the limited pace of its growth.Experts from the National Bank of Australia have revised their expectations regarding the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If earlier it was predicted that the regulator would start lowering interest rates in February, now analysts believe that monetary policy easing is postponed until at least May. This is due to the continued tense situation in the labor market and the risks of a re-acceleration of inflation. Such an approach by the RBA can support the national currency in the long term, but in the short term, the Australian dollar remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and global economic uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 18, gold quotes show an upward trend, trading around $2,591.16 per troy ounce, which is 1.2% higher than the previous session.The rise in gold prices is due to the suspension of the strengthening of the US dollar, which rose by 1.6% last week, but has now stabilized. The weakness of the dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Investors are waiting for speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week to get more information about the future trajectory of interest rates. According to forecasts, the Fed's rhetoric in December will be less mild, which may prepare the market for a possible rate hold at the current level in January. At least seven Fed representatives are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, US retail sales data for October showed an increase of 0.3%, which exceeds analysts' expectations and indicates the stability of the economy.Geopolitical events also have an impact on the gold market. The US presidential administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, which is a significant change in US policy and may increase tensions in the region. Such events traditionally increase the demand for safe assets, which include gold.Resistance levels: $2,600, $2,620.Support levels: $2,580, ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
On Thursday, GBP/USD shows steady growth and is trading around 1.2927, recovering losses from the previous session, when the dollar strengthened after the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Earlier, Trump promised to tighten trade policy, including a significant increase in duties on imports from the EU and China. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates less aggressively compared to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, where the economic slowdown is more noticeable.Investors are focused today on the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, which are expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%. In the UK, the current rate is 5.00% after a 25—point cut in August - the first since 2020. After inflation fell to 1.7% in September, a level not seen since April 2021, further easing was expected, especially against the background of falling gasoline and airline ticket prices. However, the increase in expenses and debt obligations announced recently in the budget caused a revision of analysts' forecasts. Additionally, the slowdown in business activity in October, according to S&P Global UK, reduces the confidence of British companies. The corresponding index dropped to 51.8 points, the lowest value since November last year.Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by data on the UK construction sector. In October, the business activity index fell to 54.3 points against the projected 56.0. At the same time, the services sector showed a slight increase to 52.0 points, and retail sales, according to the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), slowed to 0.3%, although expectations were at 1.4%.On the daily chart, according to the Bollinger band indicator, a slight decrease is noticeable, indicating a moderate expansion of the price range, but trading activity does not keep pace with this movement. The MACD indicator is also declining, maintaining a weak sell signal. Stochastic shows similar dynamics, turning downwards in the middle area.We are considering long positions when the level of 1.2948 breaks up with a target of 1.3050 and a stop loss at 1.2900.If the 1.2948 level turns out to be a strong resistance and a breakdown occurs down from the 1.2900 mark, this may be a signal for short positions with a target of 1.2817 and a stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: euro strengthens to new highs before the US electionsThe EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from the "bearish" trend of last Friday. The tool is testing new local highs reached on October 15, in anticipation of fresh drivers for movement.On Monday, the EU will publish macroeconomic statistics for October on business activity from S&P Global. It is expected that the indicators will remain at the level of last month: the index of manufacturing activity in Germany will be 42.6 points, and for the eurozone as a whole — 45.9 points. Representatives of the German Federal Bank and the European Central Bank (ECB) are also scheduled to speak during the day, which may affect the prospects for changes in the monetary policy of the region. According to a study by Ernst & Young Global Ltd., 45.0% of German industrial companies plan to expand abroad, while only 13.0% intend to maintain operations in the country. At the same time, 29.0% of companies are considering moving their headquarters outside Germany, while only 4.0% prefer to manage their business from the inside. Two thirds of the managers surveyed predict job cuts in the coming years.American investors are focused on the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for November 5th. The position of Republican candidate Donald Trump was strengthened by a weak report on the labor market, which is often used as an argument in favor of the current Joe Biden administration. In October, the US economy created only 12.0 thousand new jobs outside agriculture, with an expected 113.0 thousand, whereas in September the increase was 223.0 thousand. The average hourly wage increased from 3.9% to 4.0% and from 0.3% to 0.4%, indicating continued moderate inflation risks. Despite the initial decline in the dollar, it subsequently managed to recover, as such low figures were explained by the consequences of two major hurricanes and protests by employees of The Boeing Co.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pair holds positions at local highsThe GBP/USD pair shows moderate growth, consolidating at the level of 1.2990 and the recent highs of October 31. Market activity remains low, as investors prefer to refrain from opening new positions before the US presidential elections, which will be held on November 5. The current dollar quotes include the probability of a victory for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, which may lead to a tightening of tariff policy and a slower reduction in interest rates by the Fed.The October labor market report released on Friday had only a short-term impact, as markets no longer associate current economic data with a future administration. The US economy has created only 12,000 new jobs outside agriculture, which was the lowest result during Joe Biden's presidency. In September, this figure was 223 thousand, and in October, an increase to 113 thousand was predicted. The average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 3.9% to 4.0% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Investors also noted a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM to 46.5 points with a forecast of 47.6 points, after the previous value of 47.2.On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold the last monetary policy meeting of the year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.75%, despite the recently presented draft budget from Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, which caused a contradictory reaction among investors. The budget assumes a significant tax increase to ensure revenue in the amount of 40 billion pounds. In particular, it is planned to increase companies' contributions to the National Insurance Fund (NI) to 15% and increase the capital gains rate (CGT) from 10% to 18% for low-income taxpayers and from 20% to 24% for high incomes. These changes can create pressure on the business, reducing its profitability, which worries investors who refuse to invest in the pound. The Bank of England has also raised its forecasts for GDP growth for the current and next years and expects the consumer price index to rise from 2.5% to 2.6% by 2025.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CHF: mixed trading in the Asian sessionIn the morning, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, remaining near the 0.8650 level, amid a decrease in market activity before the announcement of the results of the US presidential election.The victory of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, may lead to a revision of monetary policy against the background of a new tariff strategy and a reduction in geopolitical tensions due to a more restrained foreign policy approach, which will potentially support the US dollar. The Fed is scheduled to meet on Thursday, and analysts expect a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.75%. Traders will pay special attention to the comments of the Fed representatives after the meeting in order to understand the prospects for another rate change this year.In Switzerland, the consumer price index in October decreased from 0.8% to 0.6% in annual terms, while on a monthly basis the indicator rose from -0.3% to -0.1%, while analysts predicted zero values in both cases. In addition, retail sales in September adjusted from 2.7% to 2.2%, which was lower than the expected 2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8631, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.NZD/USD: reduced trading volatilityThe NZD/USD pair is correcting near the level of 0.6006 against the background of a weakening US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics on the New Zealand real estate market.In September, the number of approved applications for the construction of new homes increased from -5.2% to 2.6% on a monthly basis, although since the beginning of the year it has amounted to 33,677 thousand, which is 17.0% less than in the previous period. In the third quarter, the number of applications increased from -2.8% to 6.2%, but the indicator for non-residential facilities in September showed a decrease of -9.1 billion New Zealand dollars, which corresponds to a drop of 6.4% year-on-year and indicates the weakness of this sector.The US dollar in the Asian session fell to the level of 103.50 in USDX amid lower volatility and expectations of the results of the US presidential election and the Fed's decision on monetary policy, which will be announced on Thursday. The chances of winning candidates from both parties are estimated to be approximately equal, so investors are following cautious tactics before the announcement of the election results. According to the FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 99.0%, and this scenario has already been taken into account in the quotes.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5980, ...
EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4%, supporting the euroAs of November 1, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.0767, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Annual inflation in October was 2.0%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%, which exceeds the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, exceeding growth forecasts of 0.2%, indicating some recovery in economic activity. The unemployment rate in the region has stabilized at 6.3%. Despite these data, the ECB decided at its meeting on October 30 to leave the key rate at 3.75%, citing the need for further analysis of economic conditions before changing monetary policy. Retail sales data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2), where a decrease of 0.2% is forecast; this may put pressure on the euro in case of confirmation or deterioration of indicators.In the United States, the economic situation is showing resilience. Data on the number of jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). The forecast is 113,000, which supports expectations of stability in the labor market. If the data turns out to be higher than forecasts, this may strengthen the dollar's position and lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The business activity index (PMI) for October showed an increase to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous 50.8 and confirms the expansion of production activity. On October 31, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, arguing that maintaining economic growth and inflation control. At 14:00 (GMT+2), data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector will also be published, a decrease to 49.5 points is expected, which may affect the dollar if it deviates from the forecast.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.GBP/USD: falling retail sales and weak PMI put pressure on the poundAs of November 1, 2024, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2980, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The UK continues to face economic challenges. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in October, indicating a decrease in activity in the sector. The consumer confidence index also fell to 95.0, reflecting public concern about the economic situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.2% in quarterly terms, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, which is higher than the target level of the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in costs for manufacturers. The business confidence index dropped to 98.0, reflecting the pessimistic mood among entrepreneurs. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in September, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the coming months. Retail sales in September decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in consumer activity. The balance of foreign trade showed a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds, indicating an excess of imports over exports. At the last meeting, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, noting the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. The head of the Bank of England announced his readiness to take additional measures in case of deterioration of the economic situation.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.USD/CAD: trade surplus supports CAD amid volatilityAs of November 1, 2024, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading at 1.3933, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session.The economic and political situation in Canada demonstrates diverse trends that are reflected in the dynamics of the Canadian dollar. In the third quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, which is higher than in the second quarter, but below the expectations of analysts, who predicted growth of 0.5%. The main drivers of growth were the financial and insurance sectors, which showed an increase of 0.5%, and the services sector, including transport, where growth was 0.3%. However, the downturn in the manufacturing sector, where the business activity index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicates problems in industry, affecting export dynamics and affecting domestic economic prospects.The situation with foreign trade remains positive. The trade surplus in the last reporting period amounted to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars due to high demand for energy resources and agricultural goods. However, volatility in global oil and gas prices may pose a risk to the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the CAD exchange rate, as a significant portion of the country's income depends on these export sectors. Investors will be closely watching upcoming publications on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), which may have an impact on the prospects for the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3946, 1.4075.Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3750.Silver market analysisAs of November 1, 2024, silver is trading at $33.66 per troy ounce, which is 0.27% lower compared to the previous session.Important economic events affecting the price of silver are observed in silver-producing countries. In Mexico, the largest producer of silver, GDP grew by 0.5% in quarterly terms in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 0.7% growth. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in October compared to September, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The central bank of Mexico has left its key interest rate at 11.25% to control inflation. In Peru, the second largest producer, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2024 due to the downturn in the mining sector. The business confidence index fell to 45 points, which demonstrates a pessimistic mood.Among the silver-consuming countries, the United States and China play a key role. In the United States, GDP for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98 points in October, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions. The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%, while continuing to monitor inflation. In China, GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. The PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a reduction in activity. The Chinese government has announced plans to increase government spending on infrastructure to boost the economy.Resistance levels: 34.50, 35.00.Support levels: 33.00, ...
In Tuesday's Asian trading, GBP/USD remains near the 1.2965 level. Pressure on the pound is exerted by statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), where in October a decrease in the retail price index was recorded from -0.6% to -0.8% in annual terms, against analysts' expectations of -0.5%. This indicator hints at a weakening of inflation, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.Today at 11:30 (GMT+2), data on consumer lending will be published in the UK. It is predicted that net consumer lending will decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion, and approval of mortgage applications — from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. Additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair was exerted by business activity data for October: the index in manufacturing decreased from 51.5 to 50.3 points, in the services sector — from 52.4 to 51.8, and the composite index — from 52.6 to 51.7 points, which falls short of analysts' expectations.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stressed that the introduction of the digital currency (CBDC) "Britcoin" will not entail the abandonment of the use of cash. The Bank of England is already exploring the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT), noting the importance of adapting to innovations in the financial sector.On the daily GBP/USD chart, the Bollinger band indicator indicates a moderate narrowing of the range, reflecting short-term uncertainty. The MACD indicator shows a weak buy signal, and the Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term weakening of the pairSell deals can be opened when the price breaks below 1.2948 with a target of 1.2860 and a stop loss at 1.3000With a rebound from 1.2948 and an upward breakdown of the 1.3000 level, we will consider long positions with a target of 1.3100. We will set the stop loss at ...
GBP/USD: pound continued to decline amid weak economic dataOn October 24, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at the level of 1.295, which is 0.077% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to volatility against the background of UK economic data and expectations of the Bank of England's actions.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) for September showed a slowdown in growth to 5.9% in annual terms, which is slightly lower than the August 6.4%. However, inflation still remains well above the 2% target, which poses challenges for the Bank of England. The recently published business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 points, indicating a decrease in activity in this sector. Against this background, analysts predict that the Bank of England may suspend further rate hikes to support economic growth.On the other hand, the economic situation in the United States remains stable. The main focus of the market is on the upcoming publication of data on business activity in the service sector (PMI) and consumer spending. The inflation rate remains at 3.7% in annual terms, which coincides with analysts' expectations, and the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%. This allows the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to maintain flexibility in further tightening monetary policy. The market expects that the coming data may confirm the need to maintain the current rate level.Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850.USD/CHF: the market expects further actions by the SNB against the background of a strong francOn October 24, 2024, the USD/CHF currency pair is trading at 0.8766, which is 0.36% higher compared to the previous trading session. The growth of the dollar against the Swiss franc is associated with market expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and global economic instability, which increases demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset.The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe haven currency, is demonstrating stability amid growing global uncertainty. However, challenges remain in the Swiss domestic market. The latest inflation data show that the consumer price level fell to 1.5% in annual terms in September, which is in line with the goals of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At the same time, the SNB has lowered interest rates twice this year to support exporters and producers who are suffering from the high franc exchange rate. This decision is aimed at reducing pressure on the Swiss economy, but a strong franc still has a negative impact on the competitiveness of Swiss goods in foreign markets.Economists predict that the SNB will continue to adhere to a cautious policy in the coming months. Forecasts point to possible further intervention by the SNB in the event of increased pressure on the franc, which may lead to its weakening.Resistance levels: 0.8816, 0.8862.Support levels: 0.8727, 0.8680.USD/JPY: yen falls amid expectations of a tightening of the Bank of Japan's policyOn October 24, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 152.03, which is 0.25% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation is due to new data from Japan and market expectations regarding the future actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The economic situation in Japan remains difficult. Recent inflation data (CPI) showed an annual growth of 3.2%, above the BOJ's 2% target, forcing the Central Bank to reconsider its soft monetary policy. The Bank of Japan, headed by Governor Kazuo Ueda, continues to give signals about a possible change in the yield curve control policy (YCC), which strengthens market expectations regarding tightening measures in the coming months. This may support the yen by weakening the dollar's position.At the same time, the domestic market is also affected by weak data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), which fell to 48.3 points, indicating a reduction in industrial activity. Experts believe that the BOJ's next steps will largely depend on inflationary trends and the stability of the labor market in Japan.Resistance levels: 152.50, 153.10.Support levels: 151.50, 150.80.Silvers market analysisAs of October 24, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is $34.21 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals, both against the background of ongoing inflation, and in conditions of geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar.The economic situation in the United States has a noticeable impact on the value of silver. The US Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates at a high level, which contributes to some strengthening of the dollar. However, inflation remains at 3.7%, which forces investors to seek safe haven assets such as gold and silver. Important data that may affect the dynamics of silver are the upcoming publications on the consumer price index (CPI) and data on the US labor market. At the same time, any slowdown in the growth of the US economy may increase the demand for silver as a protective asset.In addition, the ongoing global challenges in the field of energy and industrial production support silver prices, as the metal is actively used in production and "green" energy. For example, increased demand for solar panels and electronic components strengthens silver's position in the market. It should also be noted that there is a shortage of supply caused by problems in the extraction of metal in a number of countries, which also supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: $34.50 and $35.00.Support levels: $33.80 and ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD quote (the British pound against the United States dollar) is among the four most liquid instruments.Traders call the pair the word "cable". This jargon seemed to have arisen in the interval when the values of quotations were sent from the Old World to the New through a special wired highway passing through the bottom of the ocean.GBP/USD forecast (online) for todayIn one day, the pair passes from 150 to 200 points, therefore it is considered very mobile, it should be traded with all caution and foresight. The forecast for GBP/USD is based on 20 indicators and shows a fairly accurate picture.General characteristics of GBP USDThe total share of the pair's trading turnover in the foreign exchange market is about 14%.The quote demonstrates how much American dollars should be paid to buy one pound sterling.The GBP/USD exchange rate is characterized by sharp, emotional movements. Volatility is significantly higher than other pairs, for example, twice ahead of the swings of EUR/USD. When calculating the stop-loss level, it is necessary to take into account this feature of the quotation and focus on the furthest highs and lows that are only possible in the considered interval of the price chart.Factors of influence on GBP USD and what the exchange rate depends onThe forecast for GBP/USD should be checked with your own analysis, and in order to conduct it yourself, you need to know the factors influencing the currency pair.The decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (an analogue of our Central Bank) have an important impact on the GBPUSD rate. It is this state body that regulates the establishment of official interest rates. The committee consists of 9 people who represent both employees of the Bank of England, including its chairman, and independent experts.Meetings and publication of their results take place monthly. The decision is published on the second day after the start of the work of the ministers. This happens at 16:00 Moscow time. Directly voting on decisions and official resolutions are made on the second day. In two weeks, a detailed countdown of the meeting is provided, including the points of view of the majority and minority of the voters.The quarterly "Inflation Report" and the "Quarterly Bulletin" can be distinguished from official documents.The first document describes in detail the possibilities of economic growth and the target inflation rate in the next 2 years. The second report includes the results of the current monetary policy and the prospects for the development of the UK economic system.Changes in the rates of the US Federal Reserve and the UK Monetary Policy Committee are reflected accordingly in the quotations of national currencies. Investors who have started working with this pair should be advised to enter the position in small lots and closely monitor the volume of transactions taking place. The price does not hold the overcome levels well, so GBP/USD very often rolls back, even after overcoming strong resistance lines. This feature is largely due to the fact that GBP/USD is noticeably suffering from low liquidity.The correlation of GBP/USD with another currency quote – EUR/USD is always noticeable. This connection is very logical, because the euro also stands on the side of the Europeans, sharing all the main news affecting the currency quotes of the EU member states.Read more: How much can you really earn on the Forex marketHow best to trade on the GBP USD currency pairThe GBP/USD currency pair has a ticker identical to its name. Most forex brokers have this tool in their arsenal, so there should not be any problems with finding this tool.The minimum lot, according to interbank standards, is 100,000 GBP. Naturally, the broker makes it possible to work with fractional parts.The spread is approximately 0.00005 - 0.00015.The trading session with this instrument coincides with EUR/USD, which allows you to work seamlessly with quotes.Given the dynamics of the pair and its predisposition to long trends, Moving Average indicators should be used in combination with power indicators, among which the most relevant are RSI and MACD. The Ichimoku indicator works successfully to determine the price levels of support and resistance on a currency pair. Also, as a more functional alternative to the RSI indicator, you can use Stochastic, which determines the oversold and overbought levels in the foreign exchange market.A sign of professional trading is a combination of technical and fundamental analysis data to open a position. This is also true for the GBP/USD pair.One of the interesting ways to make money on a currency pair is trading digital options. This is a very simple tool based literally on two buttons - UP and DOWN.Read more: Key participants of the forex marketFeatures of the currency pairEngland officially has a market economy with limited state control. The economy of the United Kingdom is the largest in the world and ranks sixth. In Europe, in terms of economic indicators, the UK is overtaken only by Germany. The Government includes the Treasury, which is headed by the Chancellor, who is responsible for the creation and implementation of economic and social policy by the British government.The Bank of England acts as the central bank of the island kingdom and is responsible for the issue of pounds sterling. Any news concerning these organizations can significantly change the dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.The pound is the 3rd largest reserve currency in the international economy, after the euro and the dollar. Since 1997, the Monetary Policy Committee has been responsible for publishing the key interest rate at the required level. In fact, the responsible person is the Chancellor of the committee.GBPUSD is a complex currency pair that is very closely interrelated with EUR/USD. At the same time, it lacks such high liquidity, the lack of which translates into increased volatility. Nevertheless, working with GBP/USD is a great chance to increase or strengthen the position already opened on EURUSD. Technical analysis shows relative efficiency. Unjustified price breakouts in any direction will force the trader to adjust his strategy all the time, and will not allow him to earn on one trading idea for a long time.Read more: What time is better to trade ...
According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...
Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...