Trading signals and online forecasts GBP/USD

GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating in anticipation of the latest statisticsThe GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate correction, holding near the 1.3112 mark. The decline in the US currency creates additional support for the pound, while the British currency remains stable due to a number of external factors.The incoming UK macro statistics did not cause a pronounced reaction from market participants. According to Nationwide Building Society, housing prices remained unchanged month-on-month in March, despite a projected 0.2% increase and an annual rate of 3.9%. Traders are focusing on the publication of final data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator is expected to rise from 51.0 to 53.2 points, and the composite index from 50.5 to 52.0 points, which may reflect a recovery in business confidence.Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) continues to decline, trading near the 102.70 mark and updating the annual low below the 103.00 level. Despite the positive labor market, pressure on the dollar is increasing due to the escalation of trade policy. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new package of tariffs that will affect all states that have taken retaliatory measures: duties for China will amount to 34.0%, for the European Union — 20.0%, and for Japan — 24.0%. The White House is also considering the idea of a mandatory minimum trade tax of 10.0% for all partner countries. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously negotiated the possible exclusion of the kingdom from this list, but on the eve he admitted that it would not be possible to avoid duties, and the country should prepare for tougher conditions. In 2024, the share of trade with the United States reached 17.0% of the total foreign economic turnover of the United Kingdom.Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3420.Support levels: 1.3030, 1.2760.USD/JPY: bearish signals are intensifyingThe USD/JPY pair continues to move within the framework of a downward correction, holding near the level of 147.26 against the background of weak trading activity on the yen due to increased global uncertainty.On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about increased trade restrictions from the United States. As it became known, additional fees will be added to the existing duties on steel and aluminum imports, as a result of which the cumulative rate on Japanese products sent to the United States may reach 24.0%. Ueda stressed that this issue will be raised at the upcoming G20 summit in Washington, and it is too early to talk about the consequences for domestic consumption and investment before it is held, instructing analysts to conduct a detailed assessment and develop preventive support measures. Against the background of this rhetoric, macroeconomic indicators remained in the shadows: net purchases of foreign bonds decreased to -5.9 billion yen from -233.7 billion yen a week earlier, and foreign investments in Japanese stocks amounted to - 450.4 billion yen after -1.2 trillion yen.Resistance levels: 148.60, 152.40.Support levels: 146.50, 143.20.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair is showing a steady decline in morning trading, continuing the downward movement that began at the end of the previous week, when silver prices failed to stay near the local highs of October 23. The instrument is currently trading around the 33.20 mark, while investors are carefully assessing the consequences of the latest decision by US President Donald Trump to impose large-scale retaliatory tariffs against all states that restrict access to American products on their markets.According to the White House's initiative, the base duty rate is set at 10.0%, while mirror measures will be applied in an amount proportional to restrictions from other countries. For example, according to Trump, if the European Union withholds a tax of 39.0%, the United States will impose 20.0% in response. Specific values have already been published: China — 34.0%, Taiwan — 32.0%, Switzerland — 31.0%, Great Britain — 10.0%. Additionally, 25.0% tariffs on all imported cars will come into force on April 3, and on component parts from May 3. Market participants fear that these measures could provoke a large-scale deterioration in trade relations and create serious risks for the global economy, including causing a new wave of pressure on the US dollar. It also poses potential threats to the industrial sector, especially given the high proportion of silver in production chains — about 70% of the total supply is used for industrial purposes. The main supplies come from Canada and Mexico, which have already imposed mirror duties on American goods, including silver, totaling 30.0 billion Canadian dollars.Despite the current risks, the silver market remains positive in the long term. According to the Silver Institute, global demand for the metal may reach historic highs in 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of the solar panel and electric vehicle industries. Physical mining is also showing steady growth: in 2024, First Majestic Silver Corp. It achieved a record production volume of 10.3 million ounces at the Santa Elena field, which is 7% higher than the results of the previous year.Resistance levels: 33.42, 33.75, 34.26, 34.57.Support levels: 33.00, 32.72, 32.27, 32.00.Oil market analysisDuring trading in Asia, WTI Crude Oil prices continue to decline, developing a downward movement that began on Tuesday. Currently, quotes are trying to overcome the support level around $ 69.45 per barrel, while the US republican administration's trade strategy has a significant impact on market dynamics. Investors are reacting with concern to statements from the White House, where protectionist initiatives are intensifying that could affect global energy flows.Additional pressure on the oil market was exerted by news about the possible introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil supplies. A group of American senators has proposed the establishment of ultra-high tariffs of 500% on imports from countries that continue to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, in case Moscow, in their opinion, delays the process of reaching peace agreements on the Ukrainian conflict. For comparison, similar secondary measures in force against Venezuela involve a tax of only 25%, which underlines the potential severity of the new sanctions pressure.The decline in prices is also supported by negative statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): oil reserves for the week ended March 28 unexpectedly increased by 6.165 million barrels, despite analysts' expectations of a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. A week earlier, stocks, on the contrary, decreased by 3.341 million barrels. An additional factor of instability was the situation around Kazakhstan, which has been exceeding OPEC+ production quotas for the third month in a row. In March, production in the country reached 1.880 million barrels per day with a quota of 1.468 million. The overall growth is attributed to high production activity at the Tengiz field and stable loading by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. In 2023, the country reached a historic record for total oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million tons per month, equivalent to 2.17 million barrels per day. All this puts additional pressure on OPEC+'s attempts to stabilize the market.Resistance levels: 69.50, 70.00, 70.34, 71.00.Support levels: 69.00, 68.25, 67.50, ...

USA: pay attention to the ISM index and the labor marketThe ISM Services Business Activity Index for March will be published in the United States this afternoon.A similar PMI indicator released earlier indicated an improvement in the outlook, despite continued uncertainty about tariff policy.The March Challenger report on job cuts is also expected to be published. Although this indicator rarely has a significant impact on the market, it can provide additional information about the extent of federal layoffs.Eurozone: final PMI data and ECB meeting minutesInvestors will also focus on the final data on business activity indices (PMI) for March in the eurozone. In recent months, the revised figures have significantly differed from the preliminary ones, which makes them particularly important. In addition, the minutes of the March meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be published, which may provide insight into possible decisions of the regulator at the April meeting.Sweden: statistics and speech by the head of the RiksbankThe indices of business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI will be released in Sweden today. The consensus forecast assumes that they will remain at the level of the previous month, similar to the manufacturing PMI index published on Monday. The head of the Riksbank, Eric Tedeen, will participate in a panel discussion on the European capital market. Although Sweden's monetary policy is unlikely to be the main topic, there may be individual statements that could attract investors' attention.Main events and market newsIn the US, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs on the Day of the Exemption, which caused uncertainty in the markets. Tariff rates range from 10% to 60% depending on the country, while a single base tariff of 10% has been introduced. These measures turned out to be tougher than expected, leading to a sharp decline in sentiment in global markets due to fears of a slowdown in economic growth, falling corporate profits and increased inflationary pressures.In China, the Caixin services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This was the result of increased domestic demand, which contributed to an increase in business activity and the number of new orders, the best result for the services sector since December last year.In Denmark, the Central Bank (Nationalbanken) has published data on currency interventions for March. As expected, the bank did not take any action in the foreign exchange market, which continues a 26-month streak of non-intervention.In Poland, the Central Bank (NBP) left its key interest rate at 5.75%, which was in line with analysts' forecasts. Additional details regarding the prospects for monetary policy will be announced after the press conference of NBP head Adam Glapinsky, scheduled for 15:00 CET.Stock marketsAsian stock indexes are trading in the red zone, with the largest losses recorded in Japan amid the strengthening of the yen, as well as after the announcement of a 24% tariff against the country.Futures on European indices are also showing a decline, while American markets have suffered the most significant losses due to a sharp increase in tariff pressure, which is actually a hidden tax for consumers.The overall market dynamics are consistent with observations of the escalation of trade wars in the last month and a half.Currency and debt marketThe markets expected milder tariff conditions, but their calculations did not materialize. The final decisions turned out to be tougher, which increased the risk of a recession in the United States. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped sharply, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5%.In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined along the entire curve, while the spread between two-year and ten-year securities decreased by 15 bps compared to yesterday's highs.Amid growing uncertainty, the US dollar weakened relative to other forex currency indices. USD/JPY lost 2% overnight and is trading near 147. EUR/USD strengthened above 1.09. Scandinavian currencies were influenced by multidirectional factors: on the one hand, the increased likelihood of a recession in the United States exerts pressure, on the other hand, the attractiveness of assets increases beyond the dollar. EUR/SEK is trading at 11.75, while EUR/NOK is trading near ...

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...