EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, ...
Betting decisions: key events of the dayToday, the markets are focused on the decisions of three Central Banks at once — the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Riksbank.The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 4.50%, which is in line with analysts' forecasts and current pricing in the market. The regulator's rhetoric is likely to remain unchanged, emphasizing the need for a gradual easing of monetary policy.In turn, the SNB is likely to cut the rate by 25 bps, to 0.25%, given the low inflation risks and weak dynamics of price pressure. Market expectations are also leaning in favor of a reduction, putting about 20 bps of mitigation in prices.The Riksbank is likely to leave the rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, there is a possibility of softer rhetoric, which may come as a surprise to the markets, given that the current market assessment suggests the possibility of a further step towards a rate hike.A Regional review of Norges Bank is also being released today. Investors will closely monitor GDP growth forecasts for the first and second quarters. According to preliminary data, economic activity is likely to remain in the range of 0.3–0.4% QoQ, which corresponds to the regulator's forecast made in December. However, special attention will be paid to capacity utilization indicators, as they play a key role in forecasting inflation and the subsequent trajectory of interest rates.Overview of economic events and market newsChina: sability of monetary policyThe People's Bank of China left key rates at the same levels: 1-year Loan Prime Rate — 3.10%, 5-year Loan — 3.60%. The decision was expected, but the market reaction remained restrained. The published economic data show a mixed picture of the state of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year.The Fed's decision and the markets' reactionThe Fed, as expected, kept the rate unchanged. Jerome Powell presented a balanced statement, highlighting the existing risks, but at the same time making it clear that the regulator was in no hurry to change policy. As a result of this:• U.S. government bond yields have declined,• The dollar weakened,• Stock markets have strengthened.We still expect the first rate cut to take place in June, and the Fed may conduct three rounds of easing in total this year.Ukraine: negotiations with the United StatesThe telephone conversation between the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States was an important step in discussing long-term security guarantees. The main focus was on the prospects for a settlement of the conflict and a possible truce. However, at this stage, no real agreements on Ukraine's security have been reached yet.Stock market dynamicsGlobal markets ended the trading session with growth. In the US, indexes closed near daily highs as investors reacted positively to the outcome of the Fed meeting.• Dow Jones +0,9%• S&P 500 +1,1%• Nasdaq +1,4%• Russell 2000 +1,6%European markets have seen profit-taking after recent growth, especially noticeable in Germany, where the DAX has gained 17% since the beginning of the year.In Asia, trading takes place in different directions: the Japanese and Chinese markets are showing a decline, while the rest of the sites are mostly growing.European index futures are stable, while US futures indicate a possible continuation of growth, especially in the technology sector.Currency and debt marketsThe decisions of the Fed and the Bank of Japan led to a weakening of the dollar against the yen: USD/JPY fell below 149 after a decline in US bond yields reinforced the bearish trend against the dollar.EUR/USD remained near 1.09, while EUR/SEK rose above 11.00 again ahead of the Riksbank ...
GBP/USD review on March 20, 2025The British pound continues to show resilience against the US dollar. GBP/USD is correcting around 1.2979. The main factor supporting the pair is the weakening of the US currency, as well as positive data from the UK labor market.The statistics for January showed stability. The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, while employment increased from 107.0 thousand to 144.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased from 2.8 thousand to 44.2 thousand. These indicators indicate a strong labor market, which in turn can support consumer spending and economic activity.The key event for the pound today will be the Bank of England meeting (14:00 GMT+2). The rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, with the majority of votes cast in favor of maintaining the policy (7 vs. 2). Investors are focused on the regulator's comments on future steps. Experts suggest that two more rate changes may follow this year, but the first easing of monetary policy is likely not earlier than summer.Additional uncertainty on the market is caused by the impact of US trade duties, as well as the entry into force of the new British budget, which provides for higher taxes for businesses. These factors may increase the pressure on economic growth and change the position of the monetary authorities.US Dollar: pressure from the FedThe dollar index continues to decline and reached 103.00. The greenback has been testing this level for the third day in a row. The Fed meeting did not support the national currency.As expected, the regulator left the rate unchanged in the range of 4.25–4.50%. However, the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell turned out to be somewhat softer than expected. He stressed that the forecasts for inflation and economic growth have been revised down, which requires a moderate adjustment of the monetary policy rate. In particular, it was decided to slow down the reduction in the balance sheet, which includes a more restrained pace of sales of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.These comments provoked a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a weakening of the dollar, which, through currency correlation, supported demand for risky assets, including the pound.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, the pair remains below the resistance line of the ascending channel, the range of which is limited by the levels of 1.3210–1.2830.The indicators indicate a predominance of bullish sentiment:• The moving averages (EMAS) of the Alligator indicator are moving up, strengthening the buy signal.• The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is in the positive zone and increases the volume of correction bars, which confirms the upward trend.Trading Recommendations• Purchases are possible after the breakdown and price consolidation above 1.3050. The target is 1.3260. The stop loss is 1.2950.• Sales can be considered with a decline and consolidation below 1.2950. The target is 1.2700. The stop loss is 1.3020.Thus, the short-term outlook for GBP/USD will depend on the outcome of the Bank of England meeting and the market's reaction to the regulator's comments. In the case of a softer tone of the statement, the pound may adjust downwards, but in the medium term there remains a chance for a resumption of ...
In Tuesday's Asian session, GBP/USD is consolidating near the local highs of early November, around 1.2970. Market activity remains moderate, as investors prefer to wait for new drivers, among which the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be key.The Fed is expected to keep its key interest rate at 4.50%, despite growing concerns about the prospects for the US economy. Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by the aggressive trade policy of the Trump administration, which is already affecting the dynamics of the currency and may lead to more serious changes in the global economic environment.In April, the White House plans to impose retaliatory duties on countries that restrict imports of American goods. This may also affect the UK, which has previously requested exemptions for steel and aluminum exports.After cutting the rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, the Bank of England is likely to maintain its current level at its meeting on Thursday. The head of the regulator, Andrew Bailey, has repeatedly stressed the need for a "gradual and cautious" approach to adjusting monetary policy amid ongoing uncertainty both domestically and globally.At least two of the nine committee members are expected to advocate a further 25 basis point rate cut. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has adjusted its forecast for UK GDP growth: in 2025 it is expected to increase by 1.4% instead of the previously predicted 1.7%, and in 2026 — by 1.2% instead of 1.3%.In January, the UK consumer price index decreased from 0.3% to -0.1% in monthly terms, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure. The index of business activity in the service sector rose slightly to 51.0 points, although it did not reach the forecast of 51.1 points.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on the UK labor market will be published. It is expected that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February will decrease from 22.0 thousand to 7.9 thousand. The average salary excluding bonuses is likely to grow by 5.9%, and adjusted for bonuses from 6.0% to 5.9%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator indicates a narrowing of the price range, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, forming a sell signal. Stochastic has turned towards growth, but is located near the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of correction.Trading recommendations- Short positions: can be considered after the breakdown of the 1.2900 level down with a target of 1.2800. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.2965.- Purchases will be possible when growth resumes and the 1.3000 level breaks up. The target will be 1.3100. The stop loss is ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
