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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th EUR/USD: the corrective strengthening of the euro has been suspendedThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, rolling back from the peak values reached on February 13 and updated recently. Trading is taking place near the 1.0765 level, while the market is waiting for new incentives to move. The activity of traders at the beginning of the week is low, which is facilitated by the lack of significant economic news from Europe and the American stock exchanges closed on Monday in honor of Presidents' Day.The next day, the focus will be on the session of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the speech of the head of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. The ECB's previously published monthly report pointed to a recession in the German economy caused by weak external demand and limited consumer spending, as well as high ECB interest rates that make domestic investment difficult. It is expected that production volume may decrease in the first quarter. On Wednesday, data on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone for February will be announced, and an improvement in the indicator is predicted. Also, the market's attention will be focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the rate remained unchanged. On Thursday, traders will focus on data on business activity indices in the eurozone for February and updated inflation statistics for January.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660.GBP/USD: the currency pair is stagnating in anticipation of incentives for activityThe GBP/USD currency pair is in a state of practical balance, hovering around the 1.2585 level. Market players are weighing the chances of new incentives to activate trading, while market volatility at the beginning of this week shows moderate indicators. In the USA, trading platforms did not work on the previous day due to Presidents' Day, while in the UK, investors' attention was focused on updating data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in February, the growth rate slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, and over the year the index increased by 0.1%, showing an improvement after the previous decrease of 0.7%.Support for the British pound continues to come from retail sales data released at the end of last week. In January, sales increased by 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% drop a month earlier and analysts' expectations of 1.5%. Year-on-year growth was 0.7%, which is significantly better than the projected decrease of 1.4%. Sales excluding fuel also showed an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding experts' expectations.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.AUD/USD: the RBA is considering a future rate hikeDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a pullback from the peak values reached on February 2 and re-recorded the previous day, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, stabilizing at 0.6536.Attention to the Australian dollar on Tuesday was attracted by the published results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), held on February 5-6, where it was emphasized that the main reason for maintaining the interest rate at 4.35% is the high level of inflation. The document notes that with further acceleration of inflation, the regulator may consider raising rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is expected to return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by 2025, according to RBA forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the price of Brent Crude Oil has been rising, reaching the resistance level of $ 82.80 per barrel.The increase in prices is due to concerns about the supply of fuel due to tensions in the Red Sea area. Attacks by the Ansar Allah group on merchant ships aimed at exerting pressure on Israel's military actions are causing instability in supplies. However, the prospect of reduced demand for oil and petroleum products limits this growth. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrocarbon consumption is expected to fall due to the economic recession in the UK and Japan, with daily consumption forecast at 1.22 million barrels, down from previous estimates of 1.24 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16
GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16 NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level upThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policyIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recessionThe GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.Crude Oil market analysisBrent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 15th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 15th EUR/USD: exploring sloping support and resistance levelsDuring Asian trading, the EUR/USD currency pair is holding near the 1.0725 level, experiencing uncertainty in movement after the recent publication of economic data, which did not have a noticeable impact on market sentiment.In the last quarter, the annual GDP of the eurozone showed no changes, remaining at the level of the previous period, with annual growth of 0.1%, in line with analysts' expectations. December showed an increase in industrial production from 0.4% to 2.6% and from -5.4% to 1.2% on an annual basis, while employment increased from 0.2% to 0.3%.The dynamics of the pair is significantly affected by the correction in the positions of the US dollar, which reached the level of 104.50 on the USDX index. The market is looking forward to the evening statistics on the US labor market and retail sales, expecting that they will provide clues about the future steps of the Federal Reserve System at the March meeting. Forecasts indicate that the core retail sales index for January will decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits will increase from 218,000 to 219,000.Resistance levels: 1.0827, 1.0942.Support levels: 1.0635, 1.0551.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a number of factorsIn an attempt to reorient medium-term growth to decline, GBP/USD has started falling again since the beginning of the month, being influenced by monetary aspects, now being at the level of 1.2553.In light of recent economic statistics, the Bank of England may be inclined to ease monetary policy earlier than the US Federal Reserve. In January, American inflation exceeded expectations, reaching 3.1% per annum against the projected 2.9%, while British inflation remained at 4.0%, falling short of the expected 4.1%. This indicates a slowdown in the decline in inflationary pressures in the United States, causing concern among regulators, while in the UK the indicators remain stable, strengthening investor confidence in the 2.0% target. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt expressed optimism about the stabilization of consumer prices at the target level in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2634, 1.2756, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.Silver prices analysisThe price of the precious metal shows a noticeable strengthening, following the upward correction trend started on the previous day. Now silver is trying to overcome the level of 22.40, trying to compensate for some of the losses incurred on Tuesday after the release of important data on inflation in the United States.The January consumer price index fell to 3.1% on an annual basis from the previous 3.4%, being slightly higher than the market forecasts of 2.9%. The monthly indicator increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the expected 3.7%. This forced the markets to adjust expectations again regarding the time of the beginning of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The current probability of interest rate cuts in March is 15%, and in May it is about 50%.Investors are focused on the January retail sales statistics in the United States, expecting a decrease of 0.1% after an increase of 0.6% a month earlier. In the coming days, we will also have to familiarize ourselves with the data on industrial inflation for January. The producer price index is projected to decrease from 1.0% to 0.6% on an annual basis and increase from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70, 23.00, 23.32.Support levels: 22.21, 22.00, 21.75, 21.50.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices have rolled back from a high of 78.61, now at 76.16, amid an increase in hydrocarbon reserves in the United States.The American Petroleum Institute (API) report presented mixed data: crude oil volumes increased by 8.520 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks decreased by 7.23 million barrels and 4.02 million barrels, respectively. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), last week showed an increase in inventories by 12.018 million barrels, which significantly exceeded expectations of 3,300 million barrels. This continuation of the trend of increasing inventories over the past three weeks is putting additional pressure on oil prices.Resistance levels: 78.61, 83.50.Support levels: 72.11, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th GBP/USD: awaiting key economic data from the US and the UKThe GBP/USD currency pair shows a multidirectional movement, approaching the level of 1.2630 and continuing to rise after a significant pullback at the start of last week. At the same time, market activity remains subdued in anticipation of important economic reports from the United States and the United Kingdom.Investors are looking forward to analyzing the upcoming report on the UK labor market for the period December–January. It is expected that the growth of average wages with bonuses will decrease from 6.5% to 5.7%, and without bonuses — from 6.6% to 6.0%. The unemployment rate is also projected to decrease from 4.2% to 4.0%. With the start of the American trading session, attention will switch to the January US inflation indicators. While no significant changes are expected, the market hopes that the data may prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Forecasts indicate a possible decrease in the consumer price index from 3.4% to 3.0% on an annual basis and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: the currency is stable near the peak values on December 13During the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing fluctuations, trying to overcome the 0.8750 threshold and remaining near the peak values recorded on December 13, amid a decrease in the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Also this week, inflation data from Switzerland will be closely studied, where price growth is projected to slow from 1.7% to 1.6% and stabilize at 0.0% both monthly and annualized. At the same time, during the Chinese-Swiss strategic dialogue, the desire to strengthen open economic ties was emphasized. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis expressed readiness for deep cooperation with China in the fields of finance, science, innovation, education, intellectual property protection and environmental development.Resistance levels: 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8850.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8630.AUD/USD: the exchange rate decreases as the reverse head and shoulders pattern is executedThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a downward trend, stabilizing around 0.6515 against the background of disappointing Australian economic statistics.The Australian Bureau of Statistics report for December shows a decline in retail and wholesale trade by 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, with a decrease in volumes in eight of the thirteen sectors. The mining industry and the water supply sector are particularly affected, with falls of 6.6% and 3.6%. At the same time, the construction sector and catering services showed growth of 13.9% and 6.1%. Consumer spending increased by 2.3%, which was the lowest growth since February 2021.The market reaction to the speech by Reserve Bank of Australia representative Michelle Bullock was positive. She pointed out that the RBA could lower the interest rate without waiting for inflation to hit the target range of 2.0–3.0%, although the possibility of tightening monetary policy remains open. Bullock suggests that even with an optimistic scenario for Australia's economic development, a significant decrease in inflation below target values in the next four years is unlikely.Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6380.USD/JPY: Yen may update record lowThe Japanese currency is losing ground against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair moving towards the peak values of autumn around 151.70.Due to the current economic situation, the Japanese currency is not showing strengthening, and without repeated intervention by the Bank of Japan in the market, similar to the autumn one, a sharp drop in the exchange rate may follow. According to the latest data, bank lending in Japan increased by 3.1% in January, accelerating from the previous 3.0%, while the current account balance decreased to 0.744 trillion yen from 1.926 trillion yen. The increase in purchases of foreign bonds was observed from 385.5 billion yen to 456.6 billion yen, while the volume of foreign investments in Japanese stocks decreased from 721.0 billion yen to 308.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 149.90, 151.70.Support levels: 148.30, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD and gold on Wednesday, February 7
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD and gold on Wednesday, February 7 EUR/USD: the rate has left the trend channel with a range of 1.1100–1.0850During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair demonstrates ambiguous behavior, remaining near the 1.0760 level in anticipation of new catalysts for movement.After a recent decline below 104,000, the US dollar is experiencing a correction today, stabilizing around 103.900 on the USD index. On Wednesday, the market will focus on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), where last week's rate level on 30-year mortgages reached 6.78%, and current expectations indicate a slight decrease to 6.76% amid a decrease in total lending by 7.2%. Traders are carefully analyzing the latest employment data, which exceeded expectations, giving the Federal Reserve a reason to continue its cautious approach. Confirmation of the expectation strategy from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who stressed the importance of convincing evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target 2%, led to a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts at the March meeting to 20%, while forecasts for the May period reached 65%.Resistance levels: 1.0790, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0720, 1.0570.USD/CHF: January unemployment in Switzerland reached 2.5%, without seasonalityDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows uncertain fluctuations, stabilizing around 0.8700 after a recent departure from December highs.Switzerland recorded an increase in the unemployment rate to 2.5% without taking into account seasonal adjustments, while the adjusted indicator remained at 2.2%. In light of this, the state budget is expected to show a deficit of about 2.5 billion Swiss francs, which will force the government to look for ways to reduce costs in key sectors, including social security, defense spending and asylum, in order to minimize pressure on the economy. An increase in taxes on tobacco and tobacco products is also expected.Investors' main attention today is focused on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who can assess the future course of monetary policy, including the possibilities of reducing the cost of lending. It is expected that the volume of consumer lending will decrease from the previous value of $ 23.75 billion to $ 16.00 billion, according to experts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.8730, 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8820.Support levels: 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8630, 0.8600.GBP/USD: pound is experiencing the 1.2600 level for an upward breakoutIn the morning trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair is trying to gain a foothold above the 1.2600 level, continuing the growth started the day before, when the pound was able to move away from the minimum values recorded on December 13, 2023. This rise is mainly due to technical aspects, while the main economic picture remains stable.Recently published economic reports from the UK and the USA have not brought significant changes in the market. However, retail sales statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) for January showed an increase of 1.4% after an increase of 1.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.2%. The index of activity in the UK construction sector in January rose to 48.8 points from 46.8, ahead of the forecast of 47.3 points and reaching a maximum in three years, which gives grounds for optimism about the future easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England and the subsequent recovery of the industry. On the other hand, the US data noted a moderate increase in the Redbook retail sales index to 6.1% on February 2 from the previous 5.0%, while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index fell from 44.7 to 44.0 points, missing the projected 47.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Gold: quarter analysisOver the past three months, the precious metals sector has been in a state of consolidation, a process that analysts often describe as an "accumulation of strength." During this period, major market players gradually increase their investments, avoiding massive capital injections at once. Experts are confident that significant movement in this area is inevitable this year, based on the current economic situation. For example, this month, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar did not find support in the form of large investments, remaining in the range of 103,000–104,000 according to the USDX index. After the improvement in the global economic situation, the Fed's leadership began to speak in favor of a potential transition to a more lenient policy, although specific deadlines have not yet been determined. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) estimates that the probability of maintaining the current rate level for March is 78.5%, indicating that regulators are not ready to start quantitative easing due to concerns about accelerating inflation.Meanwhile, global demand for precious metals significantly exceeds supply. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2023, the volume of demand reached 4,448.0 tons, which is 4.0% less than in record 2022. The annual decrease was mainly due to a 12.0% decrease in the last quarter to 1,150.0 tons compared to the same period of the previous year, while global supply-side production increased by 1.0% to 3,644.0 tons. Last year, central banks purchased 1,037.0 tons of precious ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, January 15th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, January 15th  EUR/USD: Euro weakens amid Christine Lagarde's statementsThe EUR/USD currency pair is testing the 1.0964 mark, maintaining its downward potential against the background of comments by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde that the peak in interest rates has already been reached.During a press conference on January 12, Lagarde noted that the current level of borrowed funds remains at its maximum, but clarified that the exact time frame for their reduction has not yet been determined, since clear indicators of inflation approaching the target level of 2% are needed. Lagarde also dispelled rumors about her possible resignation from the post of head of the ECB to join the new French government, recalling that her mandate expires in 2027.Data on producer inflation in the United States for December have an additional impact on the euro exchange rate: the index decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which turned out to be lower than the expected 0.1%, and the base index remained at 0.0% instead of the projected 0.2%. This increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in March to 70%, according to estimates from the CME's FedWatch Tool.Resistance levels: 1.1003, 1.1124.Support levels: 1.0740, 1.0460.GBP/USD: the pair is testing a local peakThe GBP/USD currency pair is strengthening slightly, intending to overcome the 1.2750 level upwards. Market activity remains moderate due to the closure of markets in the United States in honor of Martin Luther King Day celebrations. Investors are being cautious in opening new positions, waiting for the publication of tomorrow's report on the UK labor market for the period November–December.Analysts predict that the unemployment rate in the UK in the last three months to November may rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. The average hourly wage, excluding bonuses, is expected to slow down in November from 7.3% to 6.6%, and taking into account bonuses – from 7.2% to 6.8%. On January 17, inflation statistics for December will be published in the UK: the consumer price index is projected to increase by 0.2% compared with a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month, The annual indicator can be adjusted from 3.9% to 3.8%, and the base index – from 5.1% to 4.9%.The pound gained support against the background of the release of UK data by the end of the previous week. In November, GDP increased by 0.3%, after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month, while forecasts indicated an increase of 0.2%. Industrial production volumes rose 0.3% after falling 1.3% in October, and the annual rate decreased by 0.1% after -0.5%, despite the expected 0.7%. According to the National Statistical Service (ONS), these data indicate the risk of a technical recession in the fourth quarter, although it is assumed that it will be shallow.Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2963.Support levels: 1.2747, 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600.USD/JPY: analysis of the latest US inflation dataThe USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing a slight upswing, recovering from a decline at the end of last week, and is experiencing a resistance level of 145.15, attempting to overcome it. This is happening in conditions of closed American trading platforms due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Meanwhile, investors are carefully studying the recently published data on manufacturing inflation in the United States.In December, the US producer price index showed a decrease of 0.1%, thus confirming the trend of the previous month, while analysts expected a similar result. The annual index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.0%, missing the expected 1.3%. The core index excluding the cost of food and energy slowed in annual terms from 2.0% to 1.8% against the predicted 1.9%, remaining unchanged at 0.0% on a monthly basis, despite forecasts of 0.2%.Resistance levels: 145.00, 146.00, 146.65, 147.49.Support levels: 144.00, 143.35, 142.50, 142.00.USD/CHF: stabilization in anticipation of new market catalystsDuring the Asian trading session, there has been an ambiguous movement of the USD/CHF exchange rate, which consistently fluctuates around 0.8525. At the beginning of this week, the activity of traders decreased, which is partly explained by the closure of American exchanges in connection with Martin Luther King Day celebrated in the United States.Traders are carefully studying the latest data on inflation in the United States: for example, last week it was announced that the consumer price index rose from 3.1% to 3.4% in December, which exceeded forecasts that expected a level of 3.2%. At the same time, the benchmark index fell from 4.0% to 3.9%. These data may prompt the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) to delay the transition to a softer monetary policy, although this option is still considered preferable. Important indicators that investors will pay attention to will appear on Wednesday: the publication of the Fed's Beige Book and data on December retail sales dynamics is expected, it is assumed that the latter will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%.Resistance levels: 0.8553, 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8665.Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, ...
Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, January 15, 2024
GBP/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, January 15, 2024 The GBP/USD pair is strengthening a bit, testing the 1.2750 level on an upside breakout. Market activity remains low as trading in the US is suspended due to Martin Luther King Day celebrations. Investors prefer to refrain from new positions, waiting for tomorrow's UK labor market report for November-December.Forecasts suggest a rise in unemployment from 4.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings excluding bonuses are likely to slow from 7.3% to 6.6% in November and from 7.2% to 6.8% when bonuses are included. On Wednesday, January 17, the UK will release December inflation data: the CPI is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m); the annual rate is expected to adjust from 3.9% to 3.8% and the core rate from 5.1% to 4.9%.The Pound is supported by Friday's data from the UK: gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% in November. Industrial production also rose by 0.3%.On an annualized basis, there was a 0.1% decline, which, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), could indicate a possible technical recession in the fourth quarter, although it is expected to be shallow.GBP/USD technical analysis for todayAnalysts at Bank of America Global Research have revised the outlook for the Bank of England's monetary policy adjustment. The central bank is expected to keep the interest rate at 5.25% until August, although it was previously thought that the regulator would not begin to review it until February 2025. However, the Bank of England is expected to be one of the last Central Banks in the developed world to start cutting borrowing costs, given the pressure of inflation risks. The head of the regulator Andrew Bailey also noted that the negative impact on the national economy could be caused by the problems with shipping in the Red Sea, ultimately affecting the cost of shipping goods.On the daily formation chart, the Bollinger Band Indicator is showing limited gains. MACD is declining slightly, giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator, is trying to break above the "80" mark.A strong break-down of the support at 1.2700 will be a signal for entry into sales. The target mark is 1.2600. Stop loss is set at 1.2747.A price consolidation above 1.2800 will indicate the transition to buying. The nearest target for buyers will be 1.2900. Placement of stop-loss - ...
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, Silver, cryptocurrencies and crude oil for Thursday, January 11
GBP/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, Silver, cryptocurrencies and crude oil for Thursday, January 11 GBP/USD: strong prospects for continued growthThe GBP/USD trading instrument tends to grow within the framework of a stable medium-term upward trend, trading near the level of 1.2770.This rise is reinforced ahead of the announcement of important US inflation data for December, which may affect the next steps of the US Federal Reserve System. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in the consumer price index from 0.1% to 0.2% monthly and from 3.1% to 3.2% in annual terms. In the event of such an increase, the Fed may delay the interest rate cut, which will strengthen the dollar's position against other currencies. However, it is expected that any correction will be moderate, as the market continues to believe in a change in monetary policy: experts foresee three rate cuts during the year, and participants in the futures market for federal funds predict up to five decreases.Resistance levels: 1.2890, 1.2939.Support levels: 1.2573, 1.2451, 1.2329.Silver price AnalysisA correction is taking place in the precious metals market, more due to technical rather than fundamental reasons, as a result of which silver quotes stabilize at the level of 23.02.By the end of the year, investors in the global market are liquidating their positions to review the balance of their portfolios. According to the report of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the volume of silver futures trading decreased by the end of the year to an average of 42.3 thousand positions, but in the first week of the new year it rose to 57.8 thousand contracts. A decrease in the volume of positions in the asset affects its price, which was seen at the beginning of the year: the price of silver fell from $ 24.3 per ounce to the current $ 23.02 amid the growth of the USDX, with which silver has an almost perfect inverse correlation, in January the index rose from 100,500 to 102,000 points.Another technical factor influencing the fall in silver prices is the growth in the bond market, which is a competitor for metals due to their high reliability and low volatility. Over the past week, the yield on the leading 10-year government bonds increased from 3,809% to 4,000%, prompting some investors to choose them as an investment object.Resistance levels: 23.38, 24.10.Support levels: 22.70, 22.10.Cryptocurrency Market OverviewThis week, the Solana pair is showing an active recovery, reaching 105.55 today. The growth of quotations was facilitated by the approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs.Eleven new exchange-traded funds, including products from well-known investment giants such as BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments, may be launched soon, perhaps even today. This will give investors easier access to cryptocurrencies and facilitate asset management, allowing them to purchase products that track BTC price changes in a similar way as it happens with stock and bond index funds, bypassing the need to visit cryptocurrency exchanges and open digital wallets.Experts expect that the bitcoin ETF will attract about $ 30 trillion to the market, but they assume that the growth of investments will be gradual. This is confirmed by the moderate strengthening of the main cryptocurrency pairs, as the market has already anticipated this news and incorporated it into current prices. Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler noted that the approval of bitcoin ETFs does not mean that the regulator will stop considering digital currencies as securities.Resistance levels: 103.40, 119.35, 125.00.Support levels: 81.25, 69.40, 50.00.Crude Oil Market OverviewDuring the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil is experiencing growth, trying to gain a foothold above the 77.20 mark against the background of a weakening US dollar before the publication of important inflation data.The consumer price index is expected to increase from 3.1% to 3.2% per annum and from 0.1% to 0.2% monthly. The base index, excluding the cost of food and energy, is expected to adjust from 4.0% to 3.8% per annum, remaining at 0.3% monthly. On Friday, the information on inflation statistics will be supplemented with data on the producer price index for December: the indicator is expected to grow from 0.9% to 1.3% monthly and from 0.0% to 0.1% per annum, while the base indicator may decrease from 2.0% to 1.9%.Oil prices also received support from data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on commercial reserves, which decreased by 5,215 million barrels in the week of January 5, after a previous decrease of 7,418 million barrels, although analysts expected a decrease of only 1,200 million barrels. The report from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) was more moderate, showing an increase in inventories of 1.340 million barrels compared with an expected decrease of 0.675 million barrels and a previous drop of 5.503 million barrels.Resistance levels: 77.00, 78.00, 79.12, 80.00.Support levels: 76.05, 75.04, 74.00, ...
Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for today
GBP/USD, currency, GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for today In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD quote (the British pound against the United States dollar) is among the four most liquid instruments.Traders call the pair the word "cable". This jargon seemed to have arisen in the interval when the values of quotations were sent from the Old World to the New through a special wired highway passing through the bottom of the ocean.GBP/USD forecast (online) for todayIn one day, the pair passes from 150 to 200 points, therefore it is considered very mobile, it should be traded with all caution and foresight. The forecast for GBP/USD is based on 20 indicators and shows a fairly accurate picture.General characteristics of GBP USDThe total share of the pair's trading turnover in the foreign exchange market is about 14%.The quote demonstrates how much American dollars should be paid to buy one pound sterling.The GBP/USD exchange rate is characterized by sharp, emotional movements. Volatility is significantly higher than other pairs, for example, twice ahead of the swings of EUR/USD. When calculating the stop-loss level, it is necessary to take into account this feature of the quotation and focus on the furthest highs and lows that are only possible in the considered interval of the price chart.Factors of influence on GBP USD and what the exchange rate depends onThe forecast for GBP/USD should be checked with your own analysis, and in order to conduct it yourself, you need to know the factors influencing the currency pair.The decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (an analogue of our Central Bank) have an important impact on the GBPUSD rate. It is this state body that regulates the establishment of official interest rates. The committee consists of 9 people who represent both employees of the Bank of England, including its chairman, and independent experts.Meetings and publication of their results take place monthly. The decision is published on the second day after the start of the work of the ministers. This happens at 16:00 Moscow time. Directly voting on decisions and official resolutions are made on the second day. In two weeks, a detailed countdown of the meeting is provided, including the points of view of the majority and minority of the voters.The quarterly "Inflation Report" and the "Quarterly Bulletin" can be distinguished from official documents.The first document describes in detail the possibilities of economic growth and the target inflation rate in the next 2 years. The second report includes the results of the current monetary policy and the prospects for the development of the UK economic system.Changes in the rates of the US Federal Reserve and the UK Monetary Policy Committee are reflected accordingly in the quotations of national currencies. Investors who have started working with this pair should be advised to enter the position in small lots and closely monitor the volume of transactions taking place. The price does not hold the overcome levels well, so GBP/USD very often rolls back, even after overcoming strong resistance lines. This feature is largely due to the fact that GBP/USD is noticeably suffering from low liquidity.The correlation of GBP/USD with another currency quote – EUR/USD is always noticeable. This connection is very logical, because the euro also stands on the side of the Europeans, sharing all the main news affecting the currency quotes of the EU member states.Read more: How much can you really earn on the Forex marketHow best to trade on the GBP USD currency pairThe GBP/USD currency pair has a ticker identical to its name. Most forex brokers have this tool in their arsenal, so there should not be any problems with finding this tool.The minimum lot, according to interbank standards, is 100,000 GBP. Naturally, the broker makes it possible to work with fractional parts.The spread is approximately 0.00005 - 0.00015.The trading session with this instrument coincides with EUR/USD, which allows you to work seamlessly with quotes.Given the dynamics of the pair and its predisposition to long trends, Moving Average indicators should be used in combination with power indicators, among which the most relevant are RSI and MACD. The Ichimoku indicator works successfully to determine the price levels of support and resistance on a currency pair. Also, as a more functional alternative to the RSI indicator, you can use Stochastic, which determines the oversold and overbought levels in the foreign exchange market.A sign of professional trading is a combination of technical and fundamental analysis data to open a position. This is also true for the GBP/USD pair.One of the interesting ways to make money on a currency pair is trading digital options. This is a very simple tool based literally on two buttons - UP and DOWN.Read more: Key participants of the forex marketFeatures of the currency pairEngland officially has a market economy with limited state control. The economy of the United Kingdom is the largest in the world and ranks sixth. In Europe, in terms of economic indicators, the UK is overtaken only by Germany.  The Government includes the Treasury, which is headed by the Chancellor, who is responsible for the creation and implementation of economic and social policy by the British government.The Bank of England acts as the central bank of the island kingdom and is responsible for the issue of pounds sterling. Any news concerning these organizations can significantly change the dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.The pound is the 3rd largest reserve currency in the international economy, after the euro and the dollar. Since 1997, the Monetary Policy Committee has been responsible for publishing the key interest rate at the required level. In fact, the responsible person is the Chancellor of the committee.GBPUSD is a complex currency pair that is very closely interrelated with EUR/USD. At the same time, it lacks such high liquidity, the lack of which translates into increased volatility. Nevertheless, working with GBP/USD is a great chance to increase or strengthen the position already opened on EURUSD. Technical analysis shows relative efficiency. Unjustified price breakouts in any direction will force the trader to adjust his strategy all the time, and will not allow him to earn on one trading idea for a long time.Read more: What time is better to trade ...
Fiat money
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Fiat money According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...
The best Forex pairs for scalping
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, The best Forex pairs for scalping Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...
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