Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on September 13, 2024The market turned out to be adamant, and the dollar began to decline. The probability that the Fed will cut the interest rate by 50 basis points in September has increased from 13% to 45%. The chances of a large-scale monetary expansion increased after the release of data indicating a slowdown in inflation and a weak labor market in the United States. The ECB stimulated the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, and additional factors fueled the speeches of former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley, who called on the Federal Reserve to act decisively, while expectations of a decrease in the growth rate of the PCE indicator in the United States also intensified.Although recent news about falling unemployment, rising wages and core inflation could signal a return to previous scenarios indicating the stability of the economy and a possible new increase in inflation, the Fed still prefers to be cautious. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September initially jumped to 87%, but then dropped back to 55%. Investors are alarmed by the increased number of applications for unemployment benefits and rising producer prices.The August CPI and PPI inflation data show that the personal consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which the Fed uses as a key indicator of inflation, may slow to 0.1%. This leaves room for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. Dudley is actively promoting this idea, arguing that given the weakness in the labor market, such a move would be justified.However, the weakening of the dollar in forex currency trading is not only due to expectations of aggressive actions by the Fed. The ECB also lowered the deposit rate to 3.5%, but the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, practically rejected the possibility of easing monetary policy in October. She stressed the dependence of the Central Bank on the general economic situation, but not on individual data. Although inflation may decrease in September, it is expected to start rising again by the end of the year.These statements led to a revision of market expectations: the probability of further easing of the ECB's policy in October decreased from 40% to 20%, which allowed the euro to strengthen its position against the dollar.The derivatives market suggests that the Fed may cut rates 10 times over the next 12 months, while the ECB may cut rates 7 times, which increases the likelihood of a stronger euro. However, the Fed is unlikely to start cutting rates by 50 basis points, fearing a market reaction, while the weakening of the Eurozone economy may force the ECB to accelerate monetary expansion. We maintain the previous methods of forex trading and consider it advisable to sell EUR/USD when strengthening to 1.1115-1.1125 or when the bulls are unable to hold the level of 1.1085.EUR/USD Technical analysisThe EUR/USD quote has reached the resistance area (A) 1.1094 - 1.1086 today. The short-term trend remains downward, therefore, from zone (A) we will consider selling the pair with the first target of 1.1048 and the prospect of testing the minimum of September 11 -1.1002.If buyers are able to break above the resistance area (A) during trading, then the corrective growth will continue to the resistance area (B) 1.1140 - 1.1128. This zone is the boundary of the trend, and here we will also look for entry into short positions.To change the direction of the trend and switch to purchases, the pair needs to break through the level of 1.1140 and consolidate ...

EUR/USD: ECB rate cut is forecast by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1015 mark, being close to the local lows recorded on August 16. Market activity remains low as investors await the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be announced today at 14:15 (GMT+2). It is expected that the regulator will reduce the main interest rate by 25 basis points — from 4.25% to 4.00%, and the deposit rate — from 3.75% to 3.50%. However, inflationary risks remain significant. Recent data on the growth of the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter were revised from 0.3% to 0.2%, which, along with a deterioration in business sentiment, raises concerns about economic growth in the region. Although the market is not considering the possibility of reducing rates by 50 basis points, the situation may change depending on incoming data. It is likely that Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, will maintain a rhetoric focused on flexibility and analysis of economic indicators at each meeting. Investors will closely monitor the comments of other ECB representatives in order to adjust their expectations regarding the regulator's further steps by the end of the year.In parallel, inflation data from the United States, published on Wednesday, showed a sharp slowdown in annual dynamics to 2.5% in August, which is lower than the forecast of 2.6%. Monthly inflation was 0.2%, as expected. The core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2% year-on-year and rose slightly from 0.2% to 0.3% over the month. These data did not change market expectations regarding a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve by 25 basis points in September.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930, 1.0900.GBP/USD: UK GDP for July remained unchangedThe GBP/USD pair is reducing positions from annual highs against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and is currently trading at 1.3044.Economic data from the UK for July turned out to be weaker than expected, which did not allow the pound to move to an upward trend. Gross domestic product (GDP) in monthly terms remained at the same level, while experts predicted growth of 0.2%. On an annualized basis, GDP increased from 0.7% to 1.2%, but this turned out to be lower than the projected 1.4%. The weakening of the economy is due to a drop in industrial production: in July, its volumes decreased by 0.8% on a monthly basis and by 1.2% on an annual basis. The National Institute of Economics and Social Research (NIESR) has revised its forecast for GDP growth in August from 0.5% to 0.3% in quarterly terms. Against this background, investors' attention is also focused on employment indicators. In July, the number of employed increased from 97.0 thousand to 265.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in August decreased to 23.7 thousand, with expectations of 95.5 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average wages slowed to 4.0% against forecasts of 4.1%. These indicators may allow the Bank of England to continue easing monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on September 19, the regulator may reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points.Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3260.Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2850.USD/JPY: exchange rate is falling under the influence of Naoki Tamura's speechThe USD/JPY pair rose to the level of 142.98, which was facilitated by statements by Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan.On Thursday, Tamura, answering questions about a possible increase in interest rates by the end of the year or in the first quarter of next year, noted that the timing will depend on current economic and inflationary conditions. Unlike the United States and Europe, where changes in rates occur more quickly, Japan is likely to act more restrained. According to him, the country's economy is developing in accordance with forecasts made in July, but excessive attention to market stability may limit the freedom of action of the Bank of Japan in conducting an adequate monetary policy in the face of changing price dynamics. Tamura also stressed that undesirable volatility can complicate the management of the economy, so it is important to act gradually to avoid sharp fluctuations in the markets. In the long term, the regulator should follow fundamental economic indicators, carefully raising rates and assessing the impact of each step. Against the background of these statements, the USD/JPY pair reached new heights, exceeding Wednesday's maximum at 142.55 and rising to 143.04.Resistance levels: 144.10, 147.00, 149.25.Support levels: 140.80, 137.63, 134.00.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair continues to move within the corrective trend, trading at around 28.73. At the same time, the dynamics of silver is significantly inferior to gold, which remains at a level close to historical highs, demonstrating a more stable position in the precious metals market.The demand for silver futures is noticeably decreasing: the average daily trading volume for the current week fell from 67.2 thousand to 51.4 thousand contracts. Option activity also remains at a minimum level — only 9,699 contracts were concluded the day before, which is one of the lowest figures since the beginning of summer. Such a drop in activity indicates that investors do not expect significant movements in the price of silver in the short term and prefer to refrain from transactions with this asset, waiting for clearer signals from the market. As a result, silver is now less attractive compared to gold and foreign exchange assets, and significant changes in the dynamics of quotations should not be expected in the near future.Resistance levels: 29.10, 30.10.Support levels: 28.40, ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on September 12, 2024The August inflation report in the United States sobered the treasury bond market, caused fluctuations on American stock markets and rocked currency trading on forex. The acceleration of core inflation by 0.3% over the month made investors doubt the beginning of an aggressive cycle of easing the Fed's monetary policy. This led to an increase in bond yields, which only recently fell to a two-year low, and gave the EUR/USD bears a chance to approach the important 1.1 level.Although the overall inflation rate slowed from 2.9% to 2.5%, investors' attention was attracted by the acceleration of the three-month benchmark index from 1.6% to 2.1%. Despite the statements of the US President's economic adviser Lael Brainard that this report signals that the peak of inflation has passed, the problem remains for the Fed. The data showed that the labor market is not cooling, and inflation remains stable. If it continues to grow, as in the 1970s, the Fed risks repeating the mistakes of the past, when prematurely declaring victory over inflation led to a double recession.In such a situation, the best scenario is to start with a soft rate cut of 25 basis points. The probability of such an outcome at the September Fed meeting increased from 66% to 87%, while the market continues to forecast a 100 bps rate cut in 2024, including a possible 50 bps cut in November. This explains the cautious decline in EUR/USD.The ECB may accelerate the pair's decline. Almost all Bloomberg experts expect a 25 bps reduction in the deposit rate to 3.5% at the September 12 meeting. Forecasts envisage two more rounds of monetary easing in 2024 and a rate cut to a neutral level of 2.5%. If ECB President Christine Lagarde points to the weakness of the Eurozone economy and slowing inflation, the euro's decline may accelerate.The American economy continues to show resilience, and the Fed risks accelerating inflation if it cuts rates too actively. At the same time, the weakness of the Eurozone economy may force the ECB to adhere to a soft monetary policy, which will give impetus to a further fall in EUR/USD.We are waiting for Christine Lagarde's press conference. If the head of the ECB hints at a rate cut in October, the EUR/USD pair may work out the goals of 1.1 and 1.0945 faster. We give preference to sales.EUR/USD Technical analysis EUR/USD remains in a short-term downtrend. Yesterday, market participants updated the minimum on September 10. The main target of sellers is the target zone 1.0949 - 1.0924.If the pair goes into an upward correction during the trading session, then it will be possible to wait for testing the resistance area 1.1094 - 1.1086. After testing this range, we suggest considering entering EUR/USD sales with a target at the minimum on September 11. The trend boundary shifts to 1.1140 - 1.1128. If this zone is worked out in the format of an upward correction, then we will also look for entry into short positions from ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on September 11, 2024If someone believed that the US dollar would benefit from the presidential election, then the recent debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris showed the opposite. After discussions, Harris' chances of winning rose from 53% to 56%, and the Japanese yen and Swiss franc benefited from this. Forex currency trading favored risky assets, which allowed EUR/USD to strengthen, rebounding from the 1.1-1.1015 support area.Despite Trump's rhetoric about the need to weaken the dollar to support American industry, his policies remain protectionist and pro-inflation. Trade wars and new tariffs may slow down global growth, which will negatively affect risky currencies such as the euro. In the event of an increase in inflation, the Fed may suspend monetary policy easing, which explains the recent growth of the EUR/USD pair against the background of Harris' success.Although Trump blames Democrats for the weakness of the fight against inflation, the reason for its growth was mainly external factors such as disruptions in supply chains. With their normalization, Bloomberg forecasts a decrease in the consumer price index in August from 2.9% to 2.6%, while core inflation will remain at 3.2%.These data alone are unlikely to determine the Fed's decision to cut rates in September, but combined with employment reports, they may affect expectations. The futures market assumes a rate cut of 150 basis points until January, which means a 50-point decrease at two of the four FOMC meetings.However, such a sharp weakening of monetary policy may indicate an approaching recession, which will cause panic in the markets, adding losses to traders. Does the Fed need this? Unlikely.The United States looks more economically stable compared to Europe, which is suffering from the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. According to Morgan Stanley, the ECB has more reasons to aggressively ease monetary policy, and they predict a reduction in the deposit rate by 100 basis points during three meetings, including the September one. As a result, EUR/USD may fall to 1.02 by the end of the year, which is below the consensus of Bloomberg experts at 1.11.Goldman Sachs also predicts a fall in EUR/USD, as synchronous monetary policy easing is usually favorable for the dollar. Against this background, the market's reassessment of the Fed's actions opens up the opportunity to sell EUR/USD with rebounds from the resistances of 1.1065 and 1.109.EUR/USD Technical analysisYesterday, EUR/USD fulfilled all sales targets from the resistance area 1.1165 - 1.1152. The next target of sellers within the short-term downtrend is the lower target zone of 1.0949 - 1.0924. At the moment, the pair is going to work out an upward correction, during which we are waiting for testing of the resistance area 1.1107 - 1.1099. After that, we will consider new sales with the first target of 1.1061 and further - at the minimum of yesterday.The trend boundary is shifting to the levels of 1.1153 - 1.1141. If the pair reaches it, it will also be possible to look for entry into short ...

ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...