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Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

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Analytical Forex forecast for Monday, July 4, for USDJPY, EURUSD, DAX 30 index & Gold
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, DAX, index, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for Monday, July 4, for USDJPY, EURUSD, DAX 30 index & Gold EUR/USD: the pair remains uncertainThe EUR/USD instrument continues its downward movement, being at the 1.0426 mark.The "European" opened the trading session of the week in a local decline, since the bidders are not able to assess the impact of the publications of last Friday's consumer price statistics in the long term. Taking into account the June figures, which added 0.8%, annual inflation was able to strengthen in annual terms to 8.6%, updating another record threshold, with a forecast increase to only 8.4%. CPI (basic consumer price index), excluding the cost of food and fuel, rose by 3.7%, against a growth rate of 3.8% last month, which determines the main driver of price growth in the eurozone is the energy sector, with which the ECB continues to struggle, but has not achieved significant success. Analysts expect a number of representatives of the department to speak, who will confirm the degree of readiness of further steps in the future to combat inflation.Resistance levels: 1.0585, 1.0775.Support levels: 1.0366, 1.0200.USD/JPY: the asset retreated from peak indicatorsThe USD/JPY trading pair continues to show multidirection, being at the level of 135.27.Market participants focused their attention around the ambiguous macroeconomic publications of last Friday. According to the data, the number of unemployed has increased for the first time since the beginning of spring to 2.6% from the previous 2.5%. Tankan's BSI index for Q2 sank from 14.0 points to 9.0 points in the present, and the Diffuse sentiment index of large non-manufacturing companies strengthened to 13.0 points from the previous 9.0 points, emphasizing the low effectiveness of the decisions taken by such companies due to the actively growing cost of raw materials. The Japanese authorities are currently unable to solve the problem of the raw materials market.Resistance levels: 136.65, 139.00.Support levels: 133.50, 130.85.Gold PricesThe value of the bank metal changes at a slight pace, being at the level of 1810.00.Last Friday was marked by a steady decline for the instrument, which allowed it to update the January minimum. At the same time, by the end of the completion of trading operations, the dominance was returned by the bulls, recovering losses, enlisting support from technical factors and a decline in the US dollar. In particular, the published data in the EU on the same Friday were able to record an increase in inflation to a record 8.6%. The precious metal quotes are supported against the background of ongoing consultations on the adoption of new restrictive measures against the economic sectors of the Russian Federation. Among other things, contact groups in the EU are discussing the inclusion in the new package of sanctions of a partial or complete embargo on metal imports from Russia, the supply of which contributes to a significant inflow of income to the budget of the Russian Federation.Resistance levels: 1843.37, 1857.27, 1869.49, 1878.84.Support levels: 1828.22, 1816.62, 1800.00, 1775.00.DAX 30 indexThe quotes of the DAX 30 index are moving in a downward trend, being at the 12820.0 mark.As follows from the data of the reputable bank Deutsche Bank AG, the index lost about 17% in Q2 of this year, showing the worst result from 2008. The downward dynamics on the trading floors of the eurozone is provoked by investors' panic about the likelihood of an economic recession due to the rapid growth of German inflation individually, and all European countries as a whole. According to the data, the level of consumer prices in the eurozone in June increased from 8.1% last month to 8.6% this year. Meanwhile, bonds cannot show a single movement in the yield level. So, the "bears" have been dominating since the middle of last month, which allowed the yield of the demanded 10-year German bonds to decrease to 1.2265% from the previous 1.7620% by the end of June. The decrease in yield was recorded in global 20-year government securities, which amounted to 1.515% against 1.921% of the previous level.Support levels: 12600.0, 12000.0.Resistance levels: 13255.0, ...
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EURUSD: Forex strategy for the euro/dollar pair on 04/07/2022
EUR/USD, currency, EURUSD: Forex strategy for the euro/dollar pair on 04/07/2022 The euro/dollar pair is traded on an hourly chart within the framework of a downtrend. It shows that the euro/dollar exchange rate is trading below the level of the moving average with a period of 55 on the hourly chart (level 1.0440), which has a tendency to lower the price in the short term. I recommend working from sales within the framework of this wave model.The signal to open a long position will be a breakdown at the end of the resistance hour at 1.0452 in order to increase to the resistance at 1.0485 and in case of its breakdown at the end of the hour to 1.0512. The stop loss with this strategy can be placed at the level of 1.0410.The signal to open a short position will be a breakdown at the end of the support hour at 1.0423 with the aim of reducing to support at 1.0399 and in case of its breakdown at the end of the hour to 1.0366. The stop loss with this strategy can be placed at the level of 1.0465.Given that the moving average and the location of the boundaries of technical figures are moving over time, it is necessary to adjust their position on the hourly chart. I also recommend opening positions at the end of the hour to avoid false ...
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Forex. EUR/USD: will the dollar have enough strength for a long time?
EUR/USD, currency, Forex. EUR/USD: will the dollar have enough strength for a long time? Fundamental analysis of FOREX on July 4, 2022No matter how scared the markets are by the recession in the United States, but the American economy is much more stable than the economies of other developed countries. This factor, combined with the high demand for protective assets and the confident tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, makes the dollar the leader in forex currency trading.The United States does not depend on energy supplies from Russia and is at a considerable distance from the war zone. In this regard, the Fed has a simpler position. He is struggling with rising inflation and monitoring economic indicators. The ECB is much more complicated. The European regulator needs to deal with the risk of fragmentation of the Euroblock and carefully monitor the debt bond market by adjusting yield spreads.Dynamics of the Italian and German bond yield differentialOf course, things are not so simple in the US, and the risks of an economic downturn have already reached 80%, but, as Nomura predicts, the Eurozone, the UK, Canada, Australia and even South Korea will also not be able to avoid a recession. However, the Fed's intentions to raise the rate several times before the end of the year support the demand for the dollar, unlike other currencies.At the same time, 40% of analysts surveyed by JP Morgan believe that the dollar index has peaked and will begin a downward correction around 105.00. From a fundamental point of view, this scenario is justified by the actions of other Central Banks that have begun to tighten the monetary policy rate, as well as the slowdown in the growth rate of US inflation.In the Eurozone, inflation growth has set a record of 8.6%, and many experts call the ECB's statement on raising the rate in July by 25 basis points a mistake, believing that with such introductory measures, the regulator should act more decisively.Dynamics of European inflationForex trading time is quite complicated. It is necessary to consider both options for strengthening EUR/USD when breaking above 1.049, and a decline in the pair when updating the local minimum of 1.0365. The bears' next target is ...
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EURUSD: Forex strategy for the euro/dollar pair on 01/07/2022
EUR/USD, currency, EURUSD: Forex strategy for the euro/dollar pair on 01/07/2022 The euro/dollar pair is traded on an hourly chart within the framework of an uptrend. It shows that the euro/dollar exchange rate is trading above the level of the moving average with a period of 55 on the hourly chart (level 1.0452), which disposes to a price increase in the short term. I recommend working from sales within the framework of this wave model.The signal to open a long position will be a breakdown at the end of the resistance hour at the level of 1.0486 in order to increase to the resistance at the level of 1.0512 and in case of its breakdown at the end of the hour to 1.0540. The stop loss with this strategy can be placed at the level of 1.0435.The signal to open a short position will be a breakdown at the end of the support hour at 1.0452 in order to reduce to support at 1.0423 and in case of its breakdown at the end of the hour to 1.0398. The stop loss with this strategy can be placed at the level of 1.0500.Given that the moving average and the location of the boundaries of technical figures are moving over time, it is necessary to adjust their position on the hourly chart. I also recommend opening positions at the end of the hour to avoid false ...
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Articles about financial markets

The EU economy will not recover until 2023
EUR/USD, currency, The EU economy will not recover until 2023 ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...
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Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, energetic, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
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Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
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Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
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