Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 20, 2024Tariff disputes are just beginning to excite the Federal Reserve System (Fed), and Donald Trump is already initiating a partial government shutdown. The Republican rejected the proposal of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Michael Johnson on temporary financing of government agencies until March 14, insisting on a solution that includes raising the debt ceiling. However, the plan failed in the vote — 235 against 174. This led to the suspension of the government's work, which increased the volatility of currency pairs and increased interest in safe haven assets. EUR/USD, of course, continues to decline.Trump, in a familiar manner, called what was happening a "Biden shotdown," arguing that the current president is solely responsible for the government. He takes credit for the strong economy left by the Democrats and criticizes everything he considers problematic. Meanwhile, the economy is indeed showing resilience. U.S. GDP growth accelerated to 3.1% in the third quarter, higher than expectations and the previous estimate of 2.8%. The forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta indicates a further increase to 3.2% in the fourth quarter.Trump's election victory was driven by criticism of high inflation under Joe Biden. However, his own policies, including tariffs and fiscal incentives, are pro-inflation and have already begun to influence the Fed's forecasts. Department Head Jerome Powell noted that some officials have begun to take into account the potential consequences of the new president's policies in their economic assessments. That is why the Fed limited forecasts to only two rate cuts in 2025, raising market doubts about the end of the monetary easing cycle.Despite accusations against the Fed for lowering rates against the backdrop of a strong economy and rising inflation, its actions look justified. The regulator is well aware that markets are responding to expectations. Investors began to ask questions: will the Fed continue to cut rates, was the December adjustment the last one, and could a new stage of policy tightening begin?These doubts were caused by a decline in stock indices, an increase in treasury bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which, in turn, tightened financial conditions and may slow down inflation.Thus, the growth in demand for protective assets due to the shotdown, rumors about the end of the Fed's policy easing cycle and the likelihood of tightening financial conditions contribute to the fall of EUR/USD.Ignoring the potential slowdown in the US economy due to the government shutdown, investors continue to sell euros. If the shotdown pushes the Fed to further rate cuts, the EUR/USD rate may reach the target of 1.03. The strategy is to keep short positions.EUR/USD Technical analysisEUR/USD is trading in a short-term downtrend. In the decline, sellers reached the Target zone of 1.0353 - 1.0326, but failed to break through it. Therefore, an upward correction may develop today, the purpose of which will be to test the resistance area (A) 1.0444 - 1.0435. After that, we will consider new sales with the first target at 1.0393, and the second target at today's minimum.If the resistance area (A) is broken up during trading, the correction will continue to the resistance area (B) 1.0494 - 1.0481. This zone is the boundary of the trend, and sales can also be considered from ...

EUR/USD: the regulator in the USA adjusted the rate by 25 bp.The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust, trading around 1.0375 amid the strengthening of the US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the published data on a decrease in inflation.In November, the consumer price index in the eurozone fell from 0.3% to -0.3% on a monthly basis, and increased from 2.0% to 2.2% on an annual basis, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%. The basic indicator excluding energy and food products fell from 0.2% to -0.6% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.7% on an annual basis. These results strengthen the case for continued rate cuts, which puts pressure on the euro.The US dollar strengthened to 107.80 on the USDX index after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25–4.50%. In addition, the regulator presented revised forecasts: inflation in 2024 is expected to reach 2.4% against 2.3% earlier, in 2025 — 2.5% instead of 2.1%. The GDP growth forecast has been improved to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. The average rate by the end of 2025 is expected to be 4.4%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 3.9%, which is higher than previous estimates. In his statement, the head of the Fed noted that the US economy remains stable, the labor market is cooling, and inflation has slowed significantly over the past two years, although it exceeds target levels. He also stressed that the risks to inflation are generally balanced, but the current dynamics may include temporary factors.Resistance levels: 1.0410, 1.0580.Support levels: 1.0330, 1.0180.GBP/USD: UK has joined the CPTPP Economic AllianceDuring morning trading, the GBP/USD pair is held at 1.2590, partially recovering the losses incurred the previous day. The increase in quotations is due to technical factors, but traders are taking a wait-and-see position before the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting scheduled for 14:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the regulator's management will probably decide to leave the key rate at 4.75%, with eight of the nine board members supporting this decision.Wednesday brought disappointment in the form of inflation data: the consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% in November, and the base indicator increased from 3.3% to 3.5%, which slightly exceeded forecasts. Such dynamics signal the possibility of further revision of monetary policy by the Bank of England if inflationary pressure persists or increases in the coming months.On December 15, the United Kingdom completed the process of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, becoming a full participant in it. Within the framework of the alliance, the country waived import duties on palm oil from Malaysia, and also facilitated a number of procedures for trade with other members of the agreement. This step underlines London's desire to strengthen international economic ties and develop partnerships with 11 other member states of the association.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of consolidation above the 30.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair fell below this level, which is due to the strengthening of the US currency.The decline in silver prices is taking place against the background of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System. Each step to lower the interest rate, accompanied by statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, puts pressure on the metals market. Powell stressed that the American economy is showing stability, and the forecast for GDP growth at the end of 2024 has been raised to 2.5% against the previously expected 2.0%. Moreover, the regulator is considering the possibility of a temporary pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing in order to strengthen control over inflation and bring it to a level below 2.0%. Such steps reduce the attractiveness of precious metals as a protective asset in conditions of stabilization of the economic situation.On December 18, the volume of silver futures trading decreased to 50.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the maximum values of December 11 and 12 — 126.0–127.0 thousand. A similar reduction is observed in the option position, which yesterday amounted to 8,145 thousand, down from a peak of 22,706 thousand last week. This may indicate that market participants are not confident that silver prices will continue to rise and prefer to close positions, waiting for clearer signals for further action.Resistance levels: 30.00, 31.40.Support levels: 29.00, 27.40.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are showing a sideways trend, remaining slightly above the level of 72.00. The instrument was under pressure due to the growth of the US currency, which reached an annual maximum after the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points and improved forecasts for economic growth by the end of the year.Investors drew attention to the agreement concluded between the Russian company Rosneft and the Indian giant Reliance Industries Ltd. The document provides for the transportation of 500.0 thousand barrels of oil daily to India for ten years, starting in 2025, which makes this deal the largest for the region. The implementation of the project will cover a significant share of Indian demand for hydrocarbons, and processed raw materials will probably be supplied to the countries of the European Union, filling the market deficit caused by sanctions against the Russian energy sector related to the conflict in Ukraine.Support levels: 71.23, 67.61.Resistance levels: 75.38, ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 19, 2024Trading is often compared to a race between the Fed and the markets, where the latter are usually ahead. However, this time the Federal Reserve surprised by causing sharp fluctuations in assets. The US dollar index has peaked since 2022, becoming the growth leader among other forex currency indices, stock markets have gone down, and treasury bond yields have declined. The reason was an unexpected revision of the Fed's plans. Instead of three stages of monetary easing in 2025, as market participants expected, the regulator laid down only two.Monetary policy is like driving a car in a thick fog — visibility is almost nonexistent, and you have to act extremely carefully. With the labor market cooling and inflation accelerating, the Fed's actions look like an attempt to drive a car blindfolded and with faulty brakes. The only safe solution in such a situation is to stop, which the Central Bank intends to do. However, these signals came as a surprise to investors.The markets expected that rates would decrease at every second meeting in 2025 — in March, June and September. In reality, only five of the nineteen FOMC representatives suggest more than two declines. In addition, the Fed's forecast for the Personal consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) was revised from 2.2% to 2.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack even opposed the majority's decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.These changes led to the fact that the futures market revised its expectations. Now the probability that the Fed will not cut rates at all in 2025 or will do so only once has increased from 38% to 58%. This caused the collapse of the EUR/USD exchange rate.Previously, it was believed that the neutral rate, which does not stimulate or restrain the economy, is below 3%. Now its level, according to Fed officials, is close to 4%. This means that the cycle of monetary policy easing is coming to an end.Unlike the Fed, the European Central Bank does not intend to stop yet. At the next two meetings, the ECB is likely to lower the deposit rate, which will increase the gap between it and the US federal funds rate. This creates additional obstacles for EUR/USD, which explains the depreciation.The previously designated target level for EUR/USD shorts at 1.03 is getting closer, and parity is already visible on the horizon. This is great news for those who sold the pair from the levels of 1.121 and 1.0615. The forex trading strategy leaves priority to short positions and assumes their strengthening on upward pullbacks and corrections.EUR/USD Technical analysisYesterday, EUR/USD changed its short-term trend to a downward one. The support area (B) 1.0491 - 1.0478 was broken and the lower target zone 1.0353 - 1.0326 was reached. At the moment, the pair is correcting upwards. The probable target of the correction is the resistance (A) of 1.0445 - 1.0435. After testing this resistance, it will be possible to consider new sales with the main goal in the area of yesterday's minimum.If the resistance area (A) is broken up during trading, the correction will continue to the resistance area 1.0495 - 1.0481. Sales of the instrument can also be considered from this ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 17, 2024A strong economy invariably supports a strong currency — this time-tested principle continues to prove its relevance. The latest business activity data again highlights the superiority of the US economy over the Eurozone. While the aggregate PMI of the Euroblock countries is only approaching the critical mark of 50 points, the American indicator has soared to a maximum in almost three years. Such a difference in economic growth undermined the position of buyers of EUR/USD and completed another attempt to increase the main currency risk.At the beginning of 2024, it was expected that US GDP would begin to slow down under the pressure of the most stringent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) in the last 40 years. Forecasts ranged from 1% growth to the likelihood of a recession. However, the actual figures turned out to be much higher. The US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter, according to forecasts by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, it may reach 3.3%. These results reinforce the gap with the Eurozone, whose prospects look much more modest.As the economy grows, inflation tends to increase. Americans are spending more actively, anticipating a shortage of imported goods due to the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. In Europe, the situation looks different. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that core inflation no longer poses a serious threat to price stabilization, and some members of the governing council, such as Isabelle Schnabel, argue that the CPI is under control. These factors allow the ECB to continue the cycle of rate cuts, which, according to some experts, may include up to five stages in 2025.At the same time, the Fed plans to act more cautiously. September forecasts indicated four rate cuts in 2025, but the regulator's management was concerned that such steps could be perceived by the market as a signal of weakness in the American economy. In fact, the US economy is showing resilience: the labor market is strengthening, GDP is growing, and inflation has reached 2.7%. This suggests that in December some FOMC members may vote against further easing of monetary policy.Thus, the gap in the approaches of the Fed and the ECB to monetary policy will grow. The Fed's more cautious policy, reinforced by the possible consequences of Trump's tariffs, reinforces the difference in rates between the US and the Eurozone. This creates conditions for further weakening of the euro. Against this background, the forecast of EUR/USD falling to 1.03 by March and achieving parity by June remains relevant. The recommendation is to sell.EUR/USD Technical analysisThe short-term upward trend of EUR/USD remains. At the moment, the pair is trading in a downward correction. Yesterday, the bears tested the key support of the 1.0491 - 1.0478 trend. The zone was held by the buyers. Therefore, today it is advantageous to consider long positions from the support area with the first target at 1.0553 and the second at about 1.0629.For EUR/USD sales, it is necessary to break through the minimum on December 13 and consolidate below. In this case, it will be possible to consider short positions with a target in the lower Target zone of 1.0353 - ...

ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...