Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 24, 2025When the EUR/USD exchange rate depends solely on the rhetoric of the US president, the volatility of currency pairs is inevitable. Morgan Stanley analysts note that there are still enough "bulls" for the dollar in Forex, but their positions are starting to weaken. The reason is the slowdown in inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. In addition, the lack of progress in fiscal negotiations in Congress and a softer US trade policy also threaten the dollar's position. However, the dollar needs a trigger, and recently this role has been played by Donald Trump's statements.Davos and Trump's ambitionsAt the World Economic Forum in Davos, the US president stressed that businesses should produce products in America, promising the lowest tax rates in the world for those who fulfill this condition. Otherwise, according to him, tariffs will follow. In addition, he demanded that OPEC lower oil prices, arguing that this would slow down inflation.Donald Trump attributes lower energy prices to lower inflation, arguing that this will create conditions for lower Fed rates. Although energy resources did make a significant contribution to the growth of the PCE price index in 2024 (by 40%), core inflation remains above 3%. According to forecasts by Wall Street Journal experts, the inflation rate in 2025 may rise to 2.7%, due to the pro-inflationary policy of the Trump administration.Global risk appetite and EUR/USD movementTrump's harsh statements about oil and ending the conflict in Ukraine have caused a surge of optimism in global stock markets. US indices have reached new historical highs, and global risk appetite has supported EUR/USD.The US president also stated his commitment to ending the armed conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing the role of OPEC, which, according to him, hinders the achievement of peace by its actions. If the situation in Eastern Europe stabilizes, this could be a significant factor in strengthening the euro. Recall that in 2022, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell below parity due to the energy crisis in Europe. The resumption of gas supplies and lower prices could stimulate the economic recovery of the Eurozone.The euro was also supported by Trump's words that he does not seek to impose new tariffs against China, noting that he has "always had good relations" with Xi Jinping. However, investors remember how in 2018-2019, similar comments by the US president were accompanied by the imposition of duties.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is growing and approaching the maximum on January 22. If the quotes consolidate above the extreme, then buyers will try to break through the Target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453. If successful, the growth will continue to the Golden zone of 1.0554 - 1.0545.We will open new purchases in the uptrend format on a corrective decline to the support areas of 1.0365 - 1.0356 and 1.0319 - 1.0305. The main target of buyers will be the maximum on January 22.Forecast and trading strategy for EUR/USDReactions to Donald Trump's statements are difficult to predict due to his volatile rhetoric, but markets continue to adapt. Expectations for a Fed rate cut remain moderate, and an end to the conflict in Ukraine and lower oil prices still look like long-term prospects.Trading PlanOur forex trading strategies give preference to EUR/USD sales on any corrective growth. Optimal levels for forming short positions:• 1,047• ...

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 23, 2025In the historical context, the success of the US economy has often had a positive impact on the global market. However, 2025 shows a completely different picture. The strong American economy, which previously pushed the development of exporters from other countries, is facing the intention of Donald Trump to redraw the global trade map. The US president is threatening to impose 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs against China and publicly criticizes the European Union, accusing it of a trade surplus with the United States worth $350 billion, which, according to the White House, implies an adjustment of the trade agreement between the partners, the threat of tariff revision has become one. one of the reasons holding back the EUR/USD recovery, despite attempts to develop an upward movement.The state of the Eurozone economyThe head of the Bank of the Netherlands, Claes Knoth, noted that the problem is not only the negative impact of tariffs on the Eurozone's GDP, but also the general weakness of the region's economy. Against the background of these factors, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to continue the cycle of monetary policy easing. According to market expectations, in January and March, the ECB may reduce the deposit rate from 3% to 2.5%, and by 2025 it may drop to 2%. ECB representatives from France and Greece agree with this forecast, pointing to a steady slowdown in inflation towards the 2% target.Donald Trump's policy and its impact on the foreign exchange marketPresident Trump is pursuing an economic policy that, according to analysts, is inflationary in nature. Tariff increases, deregulation, and increased fiscal stimulus could put pressure on the Fed and force it to tighten monetary policy. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the impact of factors such as Trump's tariffs would have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve than on the Eurozone economy. While the United States faces the risk of accelerating inflation, the ECB is recording disinflationary trends.According to analysts at ABP Invest, the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate as early as September. The reasons will be strong economic growth in the United States, accelerating inflation and the need to maintain confidence in the regulator. At the first stage, the Fed will prefer to monitor the situation, then, in the second quarter, it will begin to give "hawkish" signals and in the third it will take action. Such a divergence in monetary policy between the United States and the Eurozone may be a key factor in the decline of the EUR/USD exchange rate.Trading recommendations for EUR/USDThe current downtrend for EUR/USD remains in effect. The bulls' attempts to overcome the resistance at 1,045 were unsuccessful, which allowed traders to activate short positions. If the pair breaks the 1.039 mark, it will generate additional signals to strengthen the shorts, with the potential for further depreciation below the parity level.Against the background of the general weakness of the Eurozone, the divergence of US and EU monetary policies, as well as the pressure of US trade policy, EUR/USD remains under pressure. Sales at the breakdown of key support levels look the most promising.EUR/USD technical analysisYesterday, in the short-term uptrend format, EUR/USD reached the upper Target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453. After that, a downward correction began. The possible target of the corrective decline is the support area 1.0365 - 1.0356. After testing the support, we will consider new purchases with the first target at 1.0406, the second target is yesterday's maximum.The key trend support is shifting to 1.0319 - 1.0305. If this zone is reached during trading, then purchases can also be considered from ...

Focus of attention: the first week of the Trump presidencyMarkets continue to closely monitor the actions of Donald Trump in his first week as president of the United States. He is expected to sign a number of decrees, strengthening the political dynamics. These events continue to dominate the news agenda, leaving investors and world leaders to analyze the consequences of the 47th president's decisions.President Trump spoke for the first time about the conflict in Ukraine, calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach an agreement, threatening to increase sanctions. Trump also suspended the financing of "green" infrastructure worth more than $ 300 billion and announced plans to attract $ 500 billion in private investment in the development of artificial intelligence. In addition, he announced possible 10% customs duties on Chinese imports and new tariffs for the EU, citing an "alarming" trade surplus of $350 billion.Key economic dataEurozoneConsumer confidence data for January will be released on Thursday. After two years of growth, this indicator decreased in November and December. Given that private consumption is the main driver of economic growth in the Eurozone in 2025, the state of consumer sentiment will be an important factor for economic forecasts.NorwayNorges Bank is expected to keep the key rate at 4.5%, with a hint of a reduction in March. Core inflation figures for December, which showed a decrease after the November jump, are likely to ease pressure on the Central Bank. However, global interest rates, the Norwegian krone (NOK) exchange rate and oil prices pose risks of a change in the December interest rate forecast. In the short term, Norges Bank is likely to take a cautious stance.JapanOn Thursday night, data on inflation (CPI) and business activity (PMI) for December will be released. Statistics are released on the eve of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. Preliminary information from Tokyo shows that inflationary pressures decreased in December. The economic recovery continues, and inflation is close to the target level. The BoJ is expected to raise the rate by 25 bps, which is already partially embedded in investors' expectations.Stock marketsDespite analysts' warnings about volatility during the inauguration, global stock indexes showed growth.The MSCI World Index has reached a new all-time high, marking a seven-day rally. Investors who reduced their risks before the inauguration could have missed out on a 4% gain, which is equivalent to a six-month return.• The Dow Jones rose 0.3%.• The S&P 500 gained 0.6%.• Nasdaq rose 1.3%.• The Russell 2000 declined 0.6%.There is a mixed trend in Asia this morning. Chinese stocks initially rose on the back of statements of market support, but later this effect weakened. Futures for the US and European indices also show a slight pullback.Debt marketThe movement in global bond yields was modest. In the US, yields on 2-year and 10-year bonds rose by several basis points. In Europe, yields on German 10-year Bunds have also slightly increased, while the spread between German and Italian bonds is approaching 100 bps, and French securities have stabilized around 70 bps.The foreign exchange marketAmid expectations of the decisions of Norges Bank and BoJ, NOK strengthened, while JPY weakened. The EUR/USD pair remains stable and is trading just above the 1.04 mark.Conclusions1. Focus on the United States: President Trump's political actions continue to have an impact on markets, especially on the currencies of countries with high trade turnover with the United States.2. Europe: Declining consumer confidence in the Eurozone may weaken the euro in the short term.3. Japan and Norway: The monetary policy of these countries will be a key driver for the movement of NOK and ...

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 22, 2025The adjustment of customs duties may be temporarily postponed, but their complete abolition is in no way part of the plans of the new US administration. Donald Trump clearly does not want shocks in the stock market, so he will gradually prepare the players for his actions. His recent statements about the possible imposition of 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico starting in February, as well as 10 percent duties on Chinese goods, confirm this strategy. If these measures are implemented, the EUR/USD pair may return to a downward trend. However, is there any certainty about this?After the growth of the US dollar index by 7% since September, investors are faced with the question - is Trump's protectionist policy taken into account in the current exchange rate? Morgan Stanley is skeptical about the further strengthening of the dollar due to tariff risks, while Bank of America is confident that concerns about new duties will support the US currency. Even if the tariffs are postponed, they will remain an important element of the White House's economic policy.Brown Brothers Harriman, on the other hand, believes that tariff noise will not change the long-term bullish trend for the dollar. Import duties will only strengthen the existing growth drivers of the dollar index.This opinion has a logical basis. The dollar, as a safe haven asset, is strengthening amid rising volatility, which confirms its rally amid an increase in the US trade policy uncertainty index. Although universal tariffs were not introduced on inauguration day, this did not eliminate uncertainty, but only temporarily reassured investors.Investors should look beyond tariff discussions. All of Donald Trump's policies are pro-inflationary. Fiscal incentives will boost household incomes, deportations create labor shortages, and import duties disrupt supply chains. This may force the Fed to keep the rate unchanged for a long time.All other risks are nothing more than fears and speculation and have no effect on ingrained forex trading strategies. Recent rumors about US plans to strengthen currency controls and expand the list of currency manipulators may force other countries to strengthen their national currencies against the dollar. However, in the context of trade wars, states are usually inclined to devalue their own currencies to mitigate the negative consequences. Thus, the dollar should not be afraid of a significant devaluation.Donald Trump does not refuse to impose tariffs, but intends to prepare markets for innovation. In such circumstances, any growth in the EUR/USD pair will be temporary. An upward breakdown of the pivot level at 1.0445 may be a signal to build up long positions formed from the level of 1.0335. At the same time, traders should keep in mind the possibility of a reversal around 1.047 and 1.054.EUR/USD technical analysisPurchases of EUR/USD from the support area 1.0342 - 1.0333 have borne fruit. Yesterday, the bulls reached the first target in the area of 1.0384, and then the second at 1.0434. The next target in the short-term uptrend format is located in the Target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453. If buyers break through this area and the pair gains a foothold higher, the growth may continue to the Golden Zone of 1.0554 - 1.0545.Long positions will be considered for correction from strong support levels. The key zones remain at the same levels, so if the price adjusts to them, then it will be possible to consider purchase ...

Markets continue to closely monitor the first steps of Donald Trump in his debut week. It is expected that the US president will sign a number of decrees, which will preserve the dominant position of news from the United States for market participants. Country leaders and investors will have to reflect on the consequences of these decisions.In the United States, President Trump suspended funding for more than $300 billion worth of green infrastructure, paving the way for private investment in $500 billion worth of artificial intelligence infrastructure. He also said that the administration is discussing the introduction of a 10% tariff on goods from China, and the EU expects new customs tariffs due to the "alarming" trade surplus with the United States.Economic and market newsThe President of the United States continued to sign executive orders, including a freeze on hiring for federal positions, with the exception of the army and immigration services. He also announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from February 1, threatening the EU with tariffs due to the US trade deficit with Europe, suggesting either new tariffs or an expansion of oil purchases from the US by European partners as a possible solution.The leaders of the EU, Germany, Canada, China and Mexico called on Trump to exercise caution, pointing to possible retaliatory measures in the event of tariffs or other sanctions.In Germany, the ZEW index for January showed mixed results. The assessment of the current situation rose to -90.4 (forecast: -93.1), reaching a maximum in three months, which may indicate stabilization after a six-month recession. However, business expectations dropped to 10.3 (forecast: 15.1), indicating a decline in optimism about future growth. These data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the ECB's rate decisions in January and March.In the UK, the November/December labor market report was in line with expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (previous: 4.3%), and the number of vacancies continues to decline, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. Wage growth remained high at 5.6% year-on-year for three months (forecast: 5.5%, previous: 5.2%). Most likely, the Bank of England will adhere to a gradual easing of monetary policy with another rate cut of 25 basis points in February.Stock marketAfter the inauguration of Donald Trump, global stock markets went up, which supported risky assets through currency correlation. Limited macroeconomic data and earnings reports also supported the positive sentiment. Investors perceived Trump's statements and about 50 executive orders signed by him as less negative than expected, leading to a rally amid reduced uncertainty that could continue if the 47th president refrains from further threats, especially regarding tariffs against China and Europe.In the US, the Dow index rose by 1.2%, the S&P 500 by 0.9%, the Nasdaq by 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.9%. Asian markets are mostly growing, especially in Japan, but Chinese markets are reacting negatively to Trump's statements about tariffs. US and European stock futures are trading in the black this morning.BondsEuropean rates ended the day with a slight decrease, with German 10-year bonds trading at 2.51%. This reversal could be due to the fact that Donald Trump did not announce a massive tariff plan during the inauguration.The foreign exchange marketYesterday, the US dollar remained under pressure amid a lack of immediate action from Trump on key issues, including import tariffs. SEK and GBP showed growth along with EUR. The EUR/USD pair ended the day above 1.04, which indicates the potential for further growth, while EUR/SEK closed the day below ...

EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 20, 2025Donald Trump's political promises are shaping traders' expectations, leading to a record increase in net longs for the US dollar to the levels of 2019. The President-elect declares his intention to deal with every crisis with unprecedented speed and determination. However, such statements cause concern, because something can go wrong. It is possible that the outlook for EUR/USD will be less gloomy than previously expected.From the point of view of macroeconomics, the reasons for strengthening the dollar are obvious. The United States demonstrates greater resilience compared to the European economy. The International Monetary Fund forecasts US GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024, while only 0.8% is expected for the Eurozone. The consensus forecast of 73 Wall Street Journal experts predicts an acceleration of inflation in the United States to 2.7% by the end of 2025, which exceeds October expectations of 2.3%. By the end of 2026, the personal consumption expenditure index is expected to reach 2.6%, with the tariffs imposed by Trump adding 0.5 percentage points to this figure.Experts predict an increase in import duties for China by 23 percentage points and by 6 percentage points for other countries, which will lead to an average tariff increase of 10 percentage points. These changes may be untimely due to the continuing acceleration of inflation.Against the background of these expectations, the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2025 has increased to 25%, although Wall Street Journal analysts predict a rate cut of 50 bp. These factors should help strengthen the dollar. However, the 8% rally in the fourth quarter hints that many positive factors are already embedded in the current dollar exchange rate. As a result, extended speculative long positions on the USD index can bring losses to traders, rather than become a reason for joy. If something goes wrong, EUR/USD will have an opportunity for correction.In the early days of the Trump presidency, investors' attention will focus on tariffs. Unlike in his first term, when he started with fiscal stimulus to support the economy before trade wars, Trump now risks weakening the U.S. economy before stimulating its growth with tax cuts. If the economy starts to slow down, the Fed may resume the easing cycle, which will be a positive signal for EUR/USD.In my opinion, the gradual introduction of tariffs will initially weaken the dollar, and then lead to its growth. On the contrary, a sharp increase in import duties may push EUR/USD to parity, followed by a recovery. At the moment, it is advisable to consider a two-way strategy: buy EUR/USD from 1.0335 and sell from 1.0255.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is trading in the corridor between the levels of 1.0315 - 1.0260. The short-term trend remains downward. Near the level of 10315, we will consider selling the asset with a target of 1.0260. If the price fixes below the 1.0260 mark, it will be possible to form new sales with a target at the minimum of January 13.The option for buying involves a breakdown and price consolidation above the level of 1.0315. In this case, long positions with the main target at the upper target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453 become ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 16, 2025The first public statement by Scott Bessent, a candidate for the post of treasury secretary, that the United States should preserve the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, instantly reversed the growth of EUR/USD observed after the release of inflation data in the United States. It seems that the administration of Donald Trump does not plan to significantly weaken the dollar, which creates room for further depreciation of the main currency pair.At first glance, the data on the consumer price index (CPI) looked ambiguous. Annual inflation accelerated from 2.7% to 2.9%, while monthly inflation showed the best result in a year. However, the main contribution to the price increase was made by a 4% increase in gas prices. At the same time, core inflation decreased from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and to 0.2% on a monthly basis, the slowest growth in the last six months.The markets immediately reacted to this data: Treasury bond yields declined, stock indexes showed the best dynamics since the election of Donald Trump, and forecasts for the Fed rate were revised. The probability that the rate will remain unchanged in 2025 has dropped from 26% to 16%, and the probability of more than one reduction has increased from 35% to 50%.Comments from FOMC representatives added volatility to currency pairs. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, confirmed the stability of the disinflationary trend. His colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the latest data confirms the movement of inflation towards the target level. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago noted that inflation dynamics continues to improve.Against this background, the EUR/USD rally seemed logical. An increase in global risk appetite, lower yields and an increased likelihood of a resumption of the Fed's easing cycle supported the euro. In addition, speculators, amid rumors of the gradual introduction of import tariffs, began to reduce long positions in the dollar.However, even if the Fed starts cutting rates, it will be slower than other central banks. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed concern about the possibility of deflation returning to the Eurozone, and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated the priority of economic growth over the return of inflation to the target level, which indicates the continuation of the cycle of monetary policy easing by the European regulator.The trader's trading plan for EUR/USD assumes that both the dollar and the euro have their weaknesses, which increases the likelihood of consolidation of the pair. However, if Donald Trump starts actively implementing his election promises, the EUR/USD bulls will have to retreat. The strategy of selling EUR/USD on growth with targets around 1.012 and 1 remains ...

ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...

Making money from price movements is the fastest way to make a profit. You can double or triple your investment in just a few minutes. This is what many people, tired of overwork or unemployment, would like to do. And so most of these people began to wonder how to become a trader from scratch, what it takes and how promising this kind of activity is. The answers to these questions are covered in the following overview.Who is a trader?To begin with, we must try to understand who a trader is. Essentially, he is a common speculator, who buys cheaper and sells dearer. To do this, he needs to have a stock of money - in today's world, this is electronic money. Also, he needs access to the quotes and assets to be traded, all these conditions are provided by numerous brokers.The trader earns money on the difference between the buy and sell price. And it does not matter whether the price is falling or rising. Anyway, with accurate analysis, he will always be in the black.Professional skills and knowledge of the traderTo have such prospects let's consider what you need to become a trader:Firstly, one needs to have a trading terminal or access to one online;Secondly, you need to understand how to evaluate the possible rise or fall of quotes. And for this you need to have your own trading strategy;Thirdly, you need to know how to manage your money. This science is called money management;Fourthly, to become a trader from scratch you have to manage your emotions and control your behavior when analyzing or opening a deal;Fifthly, you need to choose fundamental or technical analysis.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyBut these are not all the conditions. Although they are easy to follow, you will have to develop or strengthen your existing skills and personal qualities. A trader must be stress-resistant, ready to process huge amounts of information, and make numerous calculations. They must also:Know how to use his calculations;be able to stop and rest on time;be disciplined in their analyses, keep notes, and not disregard trivialities.At the same time, a future trader should not be complacent. This work is constant professional growth. Experienced traders never stop at their achievements. They have to improve their trading systems and find brokers with more favorable conditions. And in recent years, such traders have to master automated trading, where trading experts, expert advisors, systems, and robots are used.What else a true expert in trading should possess is the ability to choose assets for trading. There are hundreds of currency pairs available for those who want to become a Forex trader.The cryptocurrency market is gaining particular interest, especially among young traders. There are already hundreds of trading instruments with different volatility and yields.There are about the same number of commodities, stocks, options, and futures. This direction will be of interest to those who wish to become a trader in the stock market.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useClassification of tradersProfitability and speed of making profit are the main criteria in classifying traders. There are such types of currency, stock, and cryptocurrency speculators:Scalper - trades in time intervals of no more than 5-15 minutes. They can open dozens of deals during a day and always have a lot of false signals, so they take as little profit as possible from each deal;Intraday trader (intraday) - works with timeframes from 15-30 minutes to 1 hour chart. He closes all his orders before the end of the trading day;Mid-term - trades for several days. As a rule, it is executed until the next weekend. Leaves deals with positions rollover to other days; analysis is conducted on H1-H4 timeframe;A trader with a long-term outlook - opens positions only on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Its transactions can be active from 2-3 weeks to a year.You may become a trader in any of these categories, the main thing is to follow the sequence described below.Read more: What timeframe is the best to trade onThe 6 steps of becoming a traderThere are only a few steps to become a trader - some of them are very simple, others will take some time. So - how to become a trader, step by step:Get training - on the basis of the chosen broker, on books of famous speculators, on third-party resources, professional webinars.To choose the broker with the necessary set of instruments, official registration, financial license, and obligatory registration at the international regulator.Develop your own trading strategy.Open a demo account, which you can use to test the broker's conditions, service quality, and testing your trading system.Open and deposit an objective real account.Make a trading plan.That's basically it. Now become a professional trader, start earning and take pride in your new profession. Having passed all these stages, in the near future you will see whether it is worth becoming a trader or not. The fact is that you can earn by investing in trading. But it is a separate topic for discussion.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good brokerAmount of profit and tips for beginnersProfit depends on the size of the trading deposit, the number of opened orders, and the number of profitable deals. The trading lot size, the amount of leverage, broker's fees - all this affects the final sum of the profit. In practice, you will have to learn how to calculate all these things.Traders with experience advise not to make mistakes. For example - do not rush headlong into trading, leaving your main work. There is no need to borrow money to replenish your deposit - only use your own, even if it is small.Do not treat this activity as a game, an extra income - it is a job like any other.And now that you know everything you need to know about this job, take the first steps in mastering the profession and become a successful trader, and earn as much as you need for full financial well-being!Read more: What is a Leverage in ...

Acquaintance with the financial market begins with the identification of participants and the exact clarification of their functions. The market assumes the presence of the main actors on it – traders.  That is, a trader is a person who directly trades, the main market participant. This term can be applied to all types of markets. If we talk specifically about the financial market, then the trader here operates with assets, earning on their sale and purchase.Categories of tradersThe entire trading corps can be divided into two groups – professional traders and private traders (amateurs). Professionals are part of the staff of various funds, banks and other financial organizations. Accordingly, in the market they act on behalf of these organizations, making transactions with their assets. Simply put, these are certified financiers who go to auctions as if for work. The category of professionals also includes traders who work exclusively for themselves and operate with their own funds. Since they have no other profession, they can also be classified as professionals.The most numerous category is private amateur traders. Trading is not their main profession, and in the financial market they are engaged exclusively in additional earnings. Such traders do not have a specialized education, and they have to study independently. The financial market is attractive for the possibility of good earnings. That is why the number of amateurs exploring the market is constantly growing. The contingent of amateur traders is very mobile: someone, having failed and disappointed, leaves the market, counting on easy earnings also do not stay for a long time, but new, active and ambitious traders are constantly arriving.Trading in the financial marketIn order to make a deal on the financial market, a trader needs to give an order to a broker about the desire to sell or buy an asset. Of course, the result of such operations should be profit. In order for trading to be profitable, you need to deeply know the market processes and patterns of movement of the value of assets. Not everyone can boast of fundamental knowledge, so success does not accompany everyone. But perseverance and hard work are usually rewarded.Forex is not easy for a beginner, but the financial market has never been easy. If a trader from our days could be transferred to the stock exchange a century ago, he would also hardly be able to work right away. Firstly, he would be deprived of electronic devices and the Internet, from which you can draw the necessary information for trading, while maintaining contact with the broker. Secondly, he would be very limited in the possibilities of technical analysis. The theory of technical analysis itself did not exist at that time, and traders used separate provisions of Charles Dow, which were later systematized into a single theory.Today, the trader has all the tools to make the right decision. Prices are presented in graphic images of more than a dozen types, clearly demonstrating current and future fluctuations. The latest developments in the markets are published by many media outlets, including such reputable ones as Bloomberg or Reuters. Current currency quotes are transmitted online.The revolution in trading in financial markets has taken place in just a hundred years. Previously, a small circle of people had the opportunity to become a trader, but today the market is open to almost everyone.Read more: Five stages of becoming a traderFinancial market trading instrumentsFinancial market traders use technical and fundamental types of forecasting in their work. The technical one is presented graphically, and the fundamental one is based on economic data. By tracking the information on the terminal, based on the learned patterns, the trader predicts future quotes.The terminal is the most important tool of a trader, which is a platform for communication with a broker and an analytical tool. Modern terminals provide information on prices, various indicators and graphical tools.Modern trading is also impossible without automated trading systems, which are called robots or Expert Advisors in the professional slang of traders. Such systems trade autonomously according to the initial parameters. Such a parameter, for example, can be the volume of transactions. There is a lot of talk about the feasibility of using robots, but, in any case, no machine can be more effective than a competent trader.Another serious tool can be considered an economic calendar with announcements of economic events: speeches by economists and heads of banks, politicians, publications on economic topics, etc. So, a modern trader trades on the Internet using Internet trading platforms.Before the appearance of platforms on the Forex market, only large financial organizations participated in trading – banks, funds, etc. With the advent of the Internet, exchange trading has become accessible to ordinary users – knowledge and only a few hundred dollars are required.Trading strategyTraders have different views on the market situation – it is they who determine the trading strategy. One of the important characteristics of the strategy is the duration of transactions. According to this characteristic , several types of investors can be distinguished:long-term, making long-term transactions for several years. The analysis is based on global characteristics and indicators;short-term, making several trading transactions during the year;positional, working on a long-term strategy. Transactions last for several days with profit taking during periods of reduced activity (holidays, vacations, etc.);a day trader who makes transactions during the day (one trading session). As a rule, such traders have a small trading capital, and trading positions are realized quickly;a scalper who makes trades in a very short period (from a few seconds to 10 minutes). With a large number of operations, profitability is not ensured for every transaction. Traders working on this strategy are forced to constantly stay at the monitor and monitor suitable transactions.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyWhat does a currency player doFirstly, he trades various currencies. The principle of successful trading is simple – it is cheaper to buy and more expensive to sell. The trader operates with currency pairs consisting of two currencies. The most popular currency pair is EUR/USD. When buying such a pair, a trader buys euros for US dollars.The main advantage of the Forex market for traders is its liquidity. There is a constant supply and demand in Forex, and trading is conducted without interruptions five days a week. The choice of currency pairs for trading is wide: you can trade "majors" (the so-called pairs that are traded through the dollar) or "crosses" (without using the dollar).A trader should be ready to trade not only theoretically. No less important is the right psychological attitude, which is often ignored by beginners. Having familiarized themselves with a couple of strategies, they rush headlong into trading, risking losing all their money and forgetting about the two main enemies of the trader – fear and greed. Greed often kills capital, and fear does not allow it to increase.Many newcomers seek to get rich instantly by opening deals and not thinking about money management. Most often, such traders simply lose all their money. Trying to quickly increase the capital from $100 to $1,000, the trader opens transactions with a large volume, increasing the psychological burden. Mistakes appear, and money goes away. Risk management is very important for a trader. When opening a trade, a trader must accurately imagine the possible volume of not only profits, but also losses. Minimizing risks is the main task that a trader should be able to solve.Read more: How to become a trader from scratchFrom amateurs to professionalsA successful amateur of stock trading can become a professional. Professional trading has clear advantages: the trader now works only for himself, he does not need to go to work in the office, he plans his own working hours. But the main thing now is that the trader is the owner of his own capital, and only his well–being depends on his work.A professional stock market player lives by certain interests - news related to stock markets, currencies, economics, stock statistics, commodity prices. Plunging into this atmosphere, after a while the trader begins to understand this, makes decisions based on independent analysis. For a professional, there is no limit to the accumulation of information and knowledge. He is constantly improving – only this is the key to his success in the ...

Another "exotic" of the international currency market is the US Dollar vs Polish Zloty pair. The instrument does not stand out with any special advantages, therefore it will mainly be attractive to Polish traders and investors, while for the majority of other Forex participants, USD/PLN is not of particular interest, since it does not stand out either with a higher yield or a lower spread value.In addition, Poland's intention to completely switch to the euro does not favor the popularization of this instrument.USD PLN forecast for todayAs for most other exotic pairs with a small trading volume in general, USD/PLN is characterized by such features as: unpredictability, difficulty in making a forecast, high volatility and large spreads due to low liquidity. Zloty is a specific currency and is not widespread in the foreign exchange market.To analyze the exchange rate, it is necessary to pay attention not only to the actions of the Polish leadership, but also to monitor pan-European events (of course, we are talking about long-term dynamics on timeframes from H1 and more).Due to its specifics, the pair is more exposed to fundamental factors, which must be taken into account when compiling analytics, and there will be a lot to analyze, since this tool is very rare, and it is not worth hoping for a sufficient amount of high-quality analytics from brokers and freely available on the network.The way out of this situation can be thematic forums where ordinary traders constantly publish their thoughts on the further movement of currency pairs, although relevant and useful information can be found in Polish and English.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayUSD/PLN exchange rate chart (online) on the stock exchange with indicatorsLooking at the chart of the Zloty-Dollar pair, it is clearly visible that, like most other exotic currency pairs, this one is highly volatile and can pass hundreds of points in both directions per day.General characteristicsThe display of the US Dollar to the Polish Zloty in most trading platforms and on websites with streaming charts is carried out up to four characters after the separator, for example, at the moment it is 4.0799. Some terminals (Meta Trader5) output a value of up to five characters after the separator (4.07943).USD/PLN is a direct quoted currency pair, considered exotic.It is most active during the European trading session, when local exchanges are open in Poland.In terms of volatility on the days of the week, there are no special differences from other "exotics": Monday is traditionally the quietest trading day, but by the next day the pair is swinging at full strength and, practically, does not slow down its activity.Although the USDPLN currency pair is exotic, this does not mean that it will be more difficult to earn on it or the profit will be less.Read more: GBP/PLN: quotes, signals and forecasts for today, chartFactors influencing USD/PLN and what the exchange rate depends onPoland is a former socialist state of the Eastern Bloc, which joined the EU after democratic reforms in 2004 and is still a member of it. The country's economy has undergone major changes over the past decades. Today , its structure by sector is as follows:Services and trade – 64.3% (hotel and restaurant business, insurance, legal services);Mining and manufacturing industry, as well as industrial production – 31.2% (metallurgical, chemical, coal, light);Agriculture – 4.5% (pig farming, fruit gardening, crop production).Poland's main trading partners are other EU countries (Germany, Great Britain, etc.). The main export goods are machine-building, shipbuilding, chemical products, textiles, agricultural products.Although Poland has been a member of the European Union for more than 10 years, it cannot fully switch to the euro yet due to non-compliance with some economic requirements for joining the pan-European currency system (too large budget deficit and instability of the Zloty).However, Poland is doing everything to completely abandon the national currency as soon as possible and switch to the euro, in which case the USD PLN pair will simply cease to exist.The American economy, as much more developed in comparison with the Polish one, is characterized by a significantly greater shift of the vector towards the service sector, which is about 80%. The share of industry accounts for almost half as much of GDP as in Poland (about 19.2%). Agriculture in the United States provides only 1.5% of income.Read more: USD/DKK: exchange rate, online chart, signals & forecasts for todayToday, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the dollar is very strongly correlated withUSD/NOK – 97.6%,USD/CHF – 97.1%, USD/SEK – 94.8%, USD/SGD – 94.6%, USD/JPY – 93.8%, USD/THB – 93.2%, USD/CZK – 92.4%,USD/HUF – 91.6%. The inverse correlation of -95.7% for the pair with NZD/USD, as well as EUR/USD – -92.3%, AUD/USD – -91.2%, XPT/USD – -91%. Quite high is the inverse correspondence with the chart of the price of gold (XAU/USD) – up to -89.6% and silver (XAG/USD) – about -85.5%.All the data given relate to the D1 timeframe (that is, to the daily one), on smaller segments the correlation of this pair with others begins to fall and already on H4 USD/PLN does not correspond to any of them by more than 77-78%, and with a decrease in the interval this figure falls even more (on H1 it already falls short of 70%). The Dollar-Zloty pair has a strong correlation at the level of 80-70% with a huge number of different instruments, lists and graphs of which can be easily found on the Internet.For a clear and correct analysis of the pair with the Polish zloty, you need to take into account many factors from various sources, mainly:economic indicators (Poland, EU, USA);trade balances (of both countries and the EU);the situation on the market of brown coal, ferrous and non-ferrous (lead, copper) metals and world commodity markets in general;central Bank rates of both countries;labor market (USA, Poland and EU in general);business activity in industry (Manufacturing PMI index).Due to not only economic, but also its national specifics, Poland practically did not suffer from the pan-European migration crisis, which has a positive effect on tourism, but the agricultural sector was hit hard by the sanctions war with Russia. This has a negative impact not only on the dynamics of agricultural exports, but also on the labor market, increasing the unemployment rate.Read more: USD/CNH - description, characteristics, forecasts and feautures of pairFeatures of the currency pairThe complete abandonment of zloty and the transition to the euro in Poland should have happened a long time ago, but for one economic reason or another it is constantly being delayed. And, despite the fact that they kept saying that the refusal "will happen within the next 2-3 years," it never came to fruition either in 2010, 2014, or 2020, and it still continues to this ...

According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...

Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...