Another "exotic" of the international currency market is the US Dollar vs Polish Zloty pair. The instrument does not stand out with any special advantages, therefore it will mainly be attractive to Polish traders and investors, while for the majority of other Forex participants, USD/PLN is not of particular interest, since it does not stand out either with a higher yield or a lower spread value.In addition, Poland's intention to completely switch to the euro does not favor the popularization of this instrument.USD PLN forecast for todayAs for most other exotic pairs with a small trading volume in general, USD/PLN is characterized by such features as: unpredictability, difficulty in making a forecast, high volatility and large spreads due to low liquidity. Zloty is a specific currency and is not widespread in the foreign exchange market.To analyze the exchange rate, it is necessary to pay attention not only to the actions of the Polish leadership, but also to monitor pan-European events (of course, we are talking about long-term dynamics on timeframes from H1 and more).Due to its specifics, the pair is more exposed to fundamental factors, which must be taken into account when compiling analytics, and there will be a lot to analyze, since this tool is very rare, and it is not worth hoping for a sufficient amount of high-quality analytics from brokers and freely available on the network.The way out of this situation can be thematic forums where ordinary traders constantly publish their thoughts on the further movement of currency pairs, although relevant and useful information can be found in Polish and English.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayUSD/PLN exchange rate chart (online) on the stock exchange with indicatorsLooking at the chart of the Zloty-Dollar pair, it is clearly visible that, like most other exotic currency pairs, this one is highly volatile and can pass hundreds of points in both directions per day.General characteristicsThe display of the US Dollar to the Polish Zloty in most trading platforms and on websites with streaming charts is carried out up to four characters after the separator, for example, at the moment it is 4.0799. Some terminals (Meta Trader5) output a value of up to five characters after the separator (4.07943).USD/PLN is a direct quoted currency pair, considered exotic.It is most active during the European trading session, when local exchanges are open in Poland.In terms of volatility on the days of the week, there are no special differences from other "exotics": Monday is traditionally the quietest trading day, but by the next day the pair is swinging at full strength and, practically, does not slow down its activity.Although the USDPLN currency pair is exotic, this does not mean that it will be more difficult to earn on it or the profit will be less.Read more: GBP/PLN: quotes, signals and forecasts for today, chartFactors influencing USD/PLN and what the exchange rate depends onPoland is a former socialist state of the Eastern Bloc, which joined the EU after democratic reforms in 2004 and is still a member of it. The country's economy has undergone major changes over the past decades. Today , its structure by sector is as follows:Services and trade – 64.3% (hotel and restaurant business, insurance, legal services);Mining and manufacturing industry, as well as industrial production – 31.2% (metallurgical, chemical, coal, light);Agriculture – 4.5% (pig farming, fruit gardening, crop production).Poland's main trading partners are other EU countries (Germany, Great Britain, etc.). The main export goods are machine-building, shipbuilding, chemical products, textiles, agricultural products.Although Poland has been a member of the European Union for more than 10 years, it cannot fully switch to the euro yet due to non-compliance with some economic requirements for joining the pan-European currency system (too large budget deficit and instability of the Zloty).However, Poland is doing everything to completely abandon the national currency as soon as possible and switch to the euro, in which case the USD PLN pair will simply cease to exist.The American economy, as much more developed in comparison with the Polish one, is characterized by a significantly greater shift of the vector towards the service sector, which is about 80%. The share of industry accounts for almost half as much of GDP as in Poland (about 19.2%). Agriculture in the United States provides only 1.5% of income.Read more: USD/DKK: exchange rate, online chart, signals & forecasts for todayToday, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the dollar is very strongly correlated withUSD/NOK – 97.6%,USD/CHF – 97.1%, USD/SEK – 94.8%, USD/SGD – 94.6%, USD/JPY – 93.8%, USD/THB – 93.2%, USD/CZK – 92.4%,USD/HUF – 91.6%. The inverse correlation of -95.7% for the pair with NZD/USD, as well as EUR/USD – -92.3%, AUD/USD – -91.2%, XPT/USD – -91%. Quite high is the inverse correspondence with the chart of the price of gold (XAU/USD) – up to -89.6% and silver (XAG/USD) – about -85.5%.All the data given relate to the D1 timeframe (that is, to the daily one), on smaller segments the correlation of this pair with others begins to fall and already on H4 USD/PLN does not correspond to any of them by more than 77-78%, and with a decrease in the interval this figure falls even more (on H1 it already falls short of 70%). The Dollar-Zloty pair has a strong correlation at the level of 80-70% with a huge number of different instruments, lists and graphs of which can be easily found on the Internet.For a clear and correct analysis of the pair with the Polish zloty, you need to take into account many factors from various sources, mainly:economic indicators (Poland, EU, USA);trade balances (of both countries and the EU);the situation on the market of brown coal, ferrous and non-ferrous (lead, copper) metals and world commodity markets in general;central Bank rates of both countries;labor market (USA, Poland and EU in general);business activity in industry (Manufacturing PMI index).Due to not only economic, but also its national specifics, Poland practically did not suffer from the pan-European migration crisis, which has a positive effect on tourism, but the agricultural sector was hit hard by the sanctions war with Russia. This has a negative impact not only on the dynamics of agricultural exports, but also on the labor market, increasing the unemployment rate.Read more: USD/CNH - description, characteristics, forecasts and feautures of pairFeatures of the currency pairThe complete abandonment of zloty and the transition to the euro in Poland should have happened a long time ago, but for one economic reason or another it is constantly being delayed. And, despite the fact that they kept saying that the refusal "will happen within the next 2-3 years," it never came to fruition either in 2010, 2014, or 2020, and it still continues to this ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD on September 20The Fed is unlikely to raise the rate at today's meeting, but it will probably keep the forecast of monetary restriction in November. Expectations that the federal funds rate will rise to 5.75% remains a long-term supportive factor for the dollar, which will prevent EUR/USD from staying above 1.07 for long.Oil is getting more expensive in the market and this could add strength to the new round of inflation. CPI is already reacting to rising energy costs, core inflation will not be long in coming, although it does not take into account the cost of the energy component. But, rising fuel costs are dragging up prices in all segments of the economy.Clearly, the oil market will not allow the Fed to put a stop to the cycle of tightening financial conditions. U.S. bond yields continue to storm to new highs, which confirms the market's faith in the Fed's hawkish monetary policy course.The background favors the greenback, which not unreasonably feels itself a full-fledged leader in forex currency trading. Of course, in six months to a year, China's economic recovery will help revitalize the euro. But getting rid of the dollar now is not the best trading strategy. We will use every EUR/USD growth to enter sales.Today the Fed meeting may give a signal for realization of this forex trading strategy. Markets have no doubt that Jerome Powell will confirm the regulator's intention to raise the rate in 2023 to 5.75%.Moreover, if the Fed chief shows concern about the rising cost of oil and the subsequent round of inflation, investors may intensify dollar purchases in hopes of more aggressive actions of the Central Bank.Today the volatility of currency pairs should come out of its usual lull. We can consider risky purchases of EUR/USD if resistance at 1.0715 is broken. But it is better to use the growth of the pair for selling, as well as a break of support at ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD on September 19The EUR/USD downtrend continues, many negative factors have already been taken into account by prices, and targets for chart patterns have been worked out. Speculators are waiting for pullbacks to re-enter the trade. However, the situation is such that the collapse of the pair may continue without correction.Hedge funds for the first time since March became buyers of the dollar against all major world currencies, as well as against the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. The exclusivity of the U.S. economy and the Fed's policies have served the dollar well. But will the greenback have enough strength to send EUR/USD to the parity level?The divergence of economic growth between the US and the EU is one of the main trump cards of the dollar strengthening. The most negative scenario for the New World economy is a "soft" landing while the European economy is not getting out of stagflation. But on the eve of the recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2007, many analysts also envisioned a slight slowdown, which eventually turned into a major crisis.Inflation is hard to beat, and there are always risks of a new spike while each new act of monetary restraint reduces consumer demand and raises unemployment. The Fed's victory may prove temporary and the recession deep. In 2024, the dollar is unlikely to retain its leading position in forex currency trading. Expectations of dollar weakness could lead to a EUR/USD recovery in the fourth quarter, unless, of course, the Eurozone adds new problems.One of these could be duties on imports of European cars to China. Taking into account that Volkswagen sends 40% of its production to the Celestial Empire, Mercedes-Benz - 37%, and other concerns a little less, the customs barriers will be a strong blow to the economy of the Eurobloc.In addition, the EUR/USD "bears" are supported by rising oil prices. Brent is approaching the $100 mark and puts pressure on European importers. However, the Fed remains in tension, as the rise in energy costs may cause a new round of inflation. But in this case, the regulator will tighten financial conditions even more, which will again support the dollarThis week the Fed meeting will take place and with such ambiguous dynamics of EUR/USD it is best to stay out of the market until the regulator's ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis on September 15, 2023The European Central Bank went for a rate hike to 4.0%, which was a collapse for the single currency. Investors decided that the regulator has ended the monetary restriction cycle while the Fed continues to keep the intrigue alive. EUR/USD moved into a sharp decline.Despite the fact that some members of the ECB Governing Council felt a pause was necessary, the rate was raised by a majority vote. Christine Lagarde notes that the tightening of financial conditions may continue, and there is no question of a rate cut. But markets think differently.The derivatives market believes that next year the ECB will cut the rate by 75 basis points, and the first act of monetary expansion will take place in June, not in July, as previously thought. It is clear that investors have assessed the deterioration of economic forecasts of the Eurozone and believe that in the Old World recession can begin much faster than in the New World, therefore, the regulator will have to go to the easing of monetary policy.Once again worked out the classic principle of currency trading on Forex: "buy on rumors, sell on facts". According to HSBC analysts, EUR/USD will fall to 1.02 by the end of the year.There is certainly logic in this reasoning. In any case, economic reports give an accurate assessment of the state of affairs in the U.S. and Eurozone. According to the forecast of JP Morgan, the US GDP will grow by 3.5% in the third quarter. This means that the Fed can afford to continue the monetary restriction cycle, unlike the ECB.EUR/USD continues its bearish hike. Forex trading strategies with selling the pair from upward pullbacks give a good result. We continue to build up short positions with a focus on 1.059 and ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis on September 14, 2023The U.S. inflation report failed to revive forex trading, and now investors' attention has shifted to the European Central Bank meeting. Rumors appeared on the market that the Eurozone CPI forecast for 2024 is 3.0%, and immediately the probability of a rate hike to 4.0% at today's meeting of the regulator soared from 20% to 70%. Against such a backdrop, EUR/USD cannot continue to decline, no matter how much US inflation threatens the Fed.Actually, having seemed quite "hot" at first, due to the fact that CPI growth exceeded the forecast and reached 3.7% rather than 3.6%, in the end the report did not make a strong impression on investors, as core inflation slowed down in August, depriving the Fed of the justification for a rate hike.The probability of another act of monetary restraint in 2023 has fallen from 45% to 43%. US debt bond yields fell, stock indices strengthened and EUR/USD returned to the pivot level at 1.072.Now it's up to Christine Lagarde's team. It is expected that the ECB, despite the threat of recession, will be forced to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% due to an increase in the forecast of inflation expectations.Investors considered three options for further developments. The "basic" one, which was considered until yesterday, assumed the ECB pause without the regulator's refusal to raise rates further. The second option provided for an act of monetary restriction with a hint at the end of the cycle of tightening financial conditions. And the third - continuation of the "hawkish" course until a special decision of the ECB. It was the third option that became the master plan as of yesterday.The Fed and the ECB have swapped places. The Fed is leaning towards a cautious approach while the ECB is forced to act decisively. Against this background, investors ignored the weak Eurozone statistics and are preparing for EUR/USD to storm the level of 1.0765. But will the euro have enough arguments to continue its upward ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis on September 13, 2023Forex currency trading is going on without sharp movements as investors are waiting for the release of the US inflation report (12:30 GMT). The probability that the Fed will change the rate at its September meeting, no matter what today's statistics show, is extremely low, but the regulator may take the report as a guide to action in November.Bloomberg forecasts that CPI will accelerate by 0.6% or from 3.2% to 3.6% (y/y) in August. But core inflation is expected to slow down from 4.7% to 4.3% (y/y). The Federal Reserve, making a decision on monetary policy, is usually guided by the core inflation rate, and if it declines, there is no special sense in monetary restriction. In any case, this is the opinion of 94 out of 97 experts of Reuters. At the same time, 17 out of 97 expect at least one more rate increase before the end of 2023.The American Bankers Association believes that the cycle of tightening financial conditions has gone according to plan and has reached the finish line. Here they believe that in the next three quarters, US GDP will sag by a maximum of 1%, and the Fed will cut the rate by 100 basis points to 4.5% in 2024, as inflation will come down to 2.2%But inflation may take much longer to fall than analysts expect, so the Fed will keep the markets on edge by noting the possibility of a continuation of the monetary restriction cycle.I believe that if the inflation in the USA slows down more than experts expect, EUR/USD will get a good chance for a bullish rally, although it is unlikely to last long, taking into account the general state of affairs in the Eurozone.Those who like to trade forex on the news can build up longs above 1.072 until the results of the ECB meeting. However, if the CPI goes up, the dollar will be strengthened on expectations of the Fed rate hike. And this is already a signal to sell ...
FOREX Fundamental Analysis on September 12, 2023Against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, rising stock indices, and through the correlation of currencies and risk assets, EUR/USD got a small respite.Some support for the euro was provided by an aggressive statement from the People's Bank of China, which allowed the yuan to push back from a 15-year low. In addition, the Bank of Japan decided to give up control over the yield curve, which allowed the yen to regain some ground against the US dollar.The statements of the Central Banks of China and Japan cooled the ardor of EUR/USD sellers, as well as the shares of Tesla, which soared on the rumors about the development of a new supercomputer.And, of course, investors are fixing longs on the dollar ahead of the US inflation report. Moreover, hedge funds have already reduced net sales on the dollar by a third over the last 6 weeks, and in August they closed 90% of longs on the euro.Nevertheless, the Old World looks much sadder than the New World. And, as we know, a weak economy cannot have a strong currency. The European Commission has once again lowered its forecast for Eurozone GDP in 2023 from 1.1% to 0.8% and in 2024 from 1.6% to 1.3%. No matter how much investors are scared by the approaching recession in the United States, things are getting worse and worse in Europe. It can be said that EUR/USD is falling not only from the strong dollar, but also from the weak euro.Despite disappointing inflation forecasts in the Eurozone, the ECB cannot continue tightening financial conditions, as it will cause a powerful economic downturn. The probability of a rate hike in September does not exceed 35%.The slight strengthening of the European currency does not suggest a strengthening of long positions on EUR/USD. The best forex trading strategy these days is to stay out of the market until the US inflation report is released. Risky traders may try to enter sales on a bounce from 1.0765 or ...
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on September 8, 2023The markets have been talking for a long time about the American recession and the Fed's "dovish" reversal, and many negative factors have accumulated in dollar quotes. Now that it has become clear that the rumors about the recession are greatly exaggerated, and the Fed continues to do its job, there is nothing to stop the greenback buyers. The only thing that can prevent the USD from strengthening in forex currency trading is a technical correction, as the dollar has been growing for 8 weeks in a row.But a pullback also needs a reason, and very good news continues to come from the United States, which especially contrasts with the weak Eurozone. Investors were first upset by the statistics of German production orders, and then by the decline in industrial production. The GDP of the first Euroblock economy decreased by 0.3% compared to the indicator before the war in Ukraine. Of course, this has affected the economy of the entire European Community. While the US is demonstrating confident stability, the Eurozone is balancing between recession and stagflation.According to Natixis analysts, the ECB is trapped. High inflation requires the regulator to raise the rate decisively, despite the fact that monetary restriction will finish off the already weak Eurozone economy. Perhaps the best solution for Christine Lagarde would be to leave everything as it is. The probability that the European Central Bank will not take any action in September is estimated at 35%. In addition, experts do not advise investors to perceive the "hawkish" speeches of some members of the ECB Council as a call to action. In the conditions of the collapse of the euro, verbal interventions are simply necessary.It is possible that the Fed is also working more for the public than it really plans to further tighten financial conditions. In any case, such an opinion is formed after contradictory statements by FOMC members. Sometimes it's better to show work than to do it.EUR/USD also took into account the negative for the dollar, so only sellers who close profits on shorts can force it to move to growth. If the pair can gain a foothold above 1.072, then it will be possible to open short-term purchases. But this is more of a forex strategy of the day, since you should not get carried away with longs. You can even skip the upward pullback and find a good point for trend sales.Trading idea for EUR/USDA small corrective growth on Friday in no way cancels the downward trend of EUR/USD. Yesterday, the pair updated local lows on June 7 in the area of strong support 1.0700. The sellers did not manage to go immediately lower, and at the moment the asset is trading near the 1.0715 mark, as many traders today fix profits in short positions before the weekend.The fundamental background continues to favor the dollar. The day before, an estimate of the Eurozone's GDP for the second quarter was released, as well as data on German industrial production. The Eurozone economy grew by only 0.1% (QoQ) and 0.5% (YoY), which lags behind forecasts. The volume of industrial production of the first Euroblock economy decreased by 0.8% against expectations (-0.5%). The report confirmed the risks of a serious economic downturn.At the same time, the US dollar continues to strengthen. A report on applications for unemployment benefits was published yesterday. In August, 216 thousand initial appeals were recorded, with expectations of 234 thousand.Economic indicators allow the Fed to continue raising rates, although the FOMC is increasingly hearing voices in favor of ending the cycle of monetary restriction. Investors are almost certain that the rate will not be changed at the Fed's September meeting. However, the chances that it will grow by 25 basis points in November have risen to 37%. On September 13, a report on US inflation will be released, which will help the Central Bank determine the course of monetary policy. Until this day, EUR/USD is likely to continue moving towards 1.0600.Fundamental factors, technical analysis indicators, candlestick and graphical patterns suggest a continuation of the downtrend. We are putting up a deferred sale of ...
FOREX Fundamental analysis on September 7, 2023Talk of a recession has been replaced by concern about the acceleration of the US economy. The published index of business activity in the service sector, which demonstrated a six-month maximum coupled with a reduction in the trade deficit, increases the chances of GDP growth in the third quarter above analysts' forecasts. If the indicator exceeds 3%, then the topic of the economic downturn can be forgotten, but the risks of a new round of inflation with the appropriate measures of the Fed can be pulled out of the storerooms.Can EUR/USD return to strengthening against this background?Forex hedging funds, which are actively selling the dollar, did not expect such a resilience of the American economy to the tightening of the Fed's financial conditions. You can believe or not believe that the Fed will conduct another act of monetary restriction this year, but the fact that rates will remain at high values for a long time is already an axiom.But, as you know, there is no trend without correction, and the dollar index has been strengthening for a very long time with almost no rollbacks. This is the best DXY rally since 2005, but, according to ING, the asset is clearly overbought. Analysts believe that any weak release from the US can cause a rapid decline in the dollar with a simultaneous recovery of EUR/USD.However, it is not only the economic successes of the United States that are pushing the pair down. Investors were disappointed by China, which forced the Eurozone to balance between stagflation and recession. And even if things are not as smooth in the United States as we would like, things are much worse in the Eurozone, which is unlikely to increase demand for the single currency.The euro is trying to grow with any more or less optimistic driver, but more often it resembles a drowning man's attempt to grab at straws, especially since there is no consensus in the ECB Council on the need for further rate increases.According to John Murphy's technical analysis, a pullback of EUR/USD is quite possible. But it is more likely to be caused by the fixation of short positions upon reaching the target mark by traders-sellers. To reverse the main currency risk, either the easing of the Fed's monetary policy, or the economic take-off of China or the Eurozone will be required. And it is better that all these factors are worked out at the same time.We prefer sales, but we will fix short positions and open short-term longs when the pair breaks above the resistance of ...
ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction. What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
Making money from price movements is the fastest way to make a profit. You can double or triple your investment in just a few minutes. This is what many people, tired of overwork or unemployment, would like to do. And so most of these people began to wonder how to become a trader from scratch, what it takes and how promising this kind of activity is. The answers to these questions are covered in the following overview.Who is a trader?To begin with, we must try to understand who a trader is. Essentially, he is a common speculator, who buys cheaper and sells dearer. To do this, he needs to have a stock of money - in today's world, this is electronic money. Also, he needs access to the quotes and assets to be traded, all these conditions are provided by numerous brokers.The trader earns money on the difference between the buy and sell price. And it does not matter whether the price is falling or rising. Anyway, with accurate analysis, he will always be in the black.Professional skills and knowledge of the traderTo have such prospects let's consider what you need to become a trader:Firstly, one needs to have a trading terminal or access to one online;Secondly, you need to understand how to evaluate the possible rise or fall of quotes. And for this you need to have your own trading strategy;Thirdly, you need to know how to manage your money. This science is called money management;Fourthly, to become a trader from scratch you have to manage your emotions and control your behavior when analyzing or opening a deal;Fifthly, you need to choose fundamental or technical analysis.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyBut these are not all the conditions. Although they are easy to follow, you will have to develop or strengthen your existing skills and personal qualities. A trader must be stress-resistant, ready to process huge amounts of information, and make numerous calculations. They must also:Know how to use his calculations;be able to stop and rest on time;be disciplined in their analyses, keep notes, and not disregard trivialities.At the same time, a future trader should not be complacent. This work is constant professional growth. Experienced traders never stop at their achievements. They have to improve their trading systems and find brokers with more favorable conditions. And in recent years, such traders have to master automated trading, where trading experts, expert advisors, systems, and robots are used.What else a true expert in trading should possess is the ability to choose assets for trading. There are hundreds of currency pairs available for those who want to become a Forex trader.The cryptocurrency market is gaining particular interest, especially among young traders. There are already hundreds of trading instruments with different volatility and yields.There are about the same number of commodities, stocks, options, and futures. This direction will be of interest to those who wish to become a trader in the stock market.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useClassification of tradersProfitability and speed of making profit are the main criteria in classifying traders. There are such types of currency, stock, and cryptocurrency speculators:Scalper - trades in time intervals of no more than 5-15 minutes. They can open dozens of deals during a day and always have a lot of false signals, so they take as little profit as possible from each deal;Intraday trader (intraday) - works with timeframes from 15-30 minutes to 1 hour chart. He closes all his orders before the end of the trading day;Mid-term - trades for several days. As a rule, it is executed until the next weekend. Leaves deals with positions rollover to other days; analysis is conducted on H1-H4 timeframe;A trader with a long-term outlook - opens positions only on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Its transactions can be active from 2-3 weeks to a year.You may become a trader in any of these categories, the main thing is to follow the sequence described below.Read more: What timeframe is the best to trade onThe 6 steps of becoming a traderThere are only a few steps to become a trader - some of them are very simple, others will take some time. So - how to become a trader, step by step:Get training - on the basis of the chosen broker, on books of famous speculators, on third-party resources, professional webinars.To choose the broker with the necessary set of instruments, official registration, financial license, and obligatory registration at the international regulator.Develop your own trading strategy.Open a demo account, which you can use to test the broker's conditions, service quality, and testing your trading system.Open and deposit an objective real account.Make a trading plan.That's basically it. Now become a professional trader, start earning and take pride in your new profession. Having passed all these stages, in the near future you will see whether it is worth becoming a trader or not. The fact is that you can earn by investing in trading. But it is a separate topic for discussion.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good brokerAmount of profit and tips for beginnersProfit depends on the size of the trading deposit, the number of opened orders, and the number of profitable deals. The trading lot size, the amount of leverage, broker's fees - all this affects the final sum of the profit. In practice, you will have to learn how to calculate all these things.Traders with experience advise not to make mistakes. For example - do not rush headlong into trading, leaving your main work. There is no need to borrow money to replenish your deposit - only use your own, even if it is small.Do not treat this activity as a game, an extra income - it is a job like any other.And now that you know everything you need to know about this job, take the first steps in mastering the profession and become a successful trader, and earn as much as you need for full financial well-being!Read more: What is a Leverage in ...
Acquaintance with the financial market begins with the identification of participants and the exact clarification of their functions. The market assumes the presence of the main actors on it – traders. That is, a trader is a person who directly trades, the main market participant. This term can be applied to all types of markets. If we talk specifically about the financial market, then the trader here operates with assets, earning on their sale and purchase.Categories of tradersThe entire trading corps can be divided into two groups – professional traders and private traders (amateurs). Professionals are part of the staff of various funds, banks and other financial organizations. Accordingly, in the market they act on behalf of these organizations, making transactions with their assets. Simply put, these are certified financiers who go to auctions as if for work. The category of professionals also includes traders who work exclusively for themselves and operate with their own funds. Since they have no other profession, they can also be classified as professionals.The most numerous category is private amateur traders. Trading is not their main profession, and in the financial market they are engaged exclusively in additional earnings. Such traders do not have a specialized education, and they have to study independently. The financial market is attractive for the possibility of good earnings. That is why the number of amateurs exploring the market is constantly growing. The contingent of amateur traders is very mobile: someone, having failed and disappointed, leaves the market, counting on easy earnings also do not stay for a long time, but new, active and ambitious traders are constantly arriving.Trading in the financial marketIn order to make a deal on the financial market, a trader needs to give an order to a broker about the desire to sell or buy an asset. Of course, the result of such operations should be profit. In order for trading to be profitable, you need to deeply know the market processes and patterns of movement of the value of assets. Not everyone can boast of fundamental knowledge, so success does not accompany everyone. But perseverance and hard work are usually rewarded.Forex is not easy for a beginner, but the financial market has never been easy. If a trader from our days could be transferred to the stock exchange a century ago, he would also hardly be able to work right away. Firstly, he would be deprived of electronic devices and the Internet, from which you can draw the necessary information for trading, while maintaining contact with the broker. Secondly, he would be very limited in the possibilities of technical analysis. The theory of technical analysis itself did not exist at that time, and traders used separate provisions of Charles Dow, which were later systematized into a single theory.Today, the trader has all the tools to make the right decision. Prices are presented in graphic images of more than a dozen types, clearly demonstrating current and future fluctuations. The latest developments in the markets are published by many media outlets, including such reputable ones as Bloomberg or Reuters. Current currency quotes are transmitted online.The revolution in trading in financial markets has taken place in just a hundred years. Previously, a small circle of people had the opportunity to become a trader, but today the market is open to almost everyone.Read more: Five stages of becoming a traderFinancial market trading instrumentsFinancial market traders use technical and fundamental types of forecasting in their work. The technical one is presented graphically, and the fundamental one is based on economic data. By tracking the information on the terminal, based on the learned patterns, the trader predicts future quotes.The terminal is the most important tool of a trader, which is a platform for communication with a broker and an analytical tool. Modern terminals provide information on prices, various indicators and graphical tools.Modern trading is also impossible without automated trading systems, which are called robots or Expert Advisors in the professional slang of traders. Such systems trade autonomously according to the initial parameters. Such a parameter, for example, can be the volume of transactions. There is a lot of talk about the feasibility of using robots, but, in any case, no machine can be more effective than a competent trader.Another serious tool can be considered an economic calendar with announcements of economic events: speeches by economists and heads of banks, politicians, publications on economic topics, etc. So, a modern trader trades on the Internet using Internet trading platforms.Before the appearance of platforms on the Forex market, only large financial organizations participated in trading – banks, funds, etc. With the advent of the Internet, exchange trading has become accessible to ordinary users – knowledge and only a few hundred dollars are required.Trading strategyTraders have different views on the market situation – it is they who determine the trading strategy. One of the important characteristics of the strategy is the duration of transactions. According to this characteristic , several types of investors can be distinguished:long-term, making long-term transactions for several years. The analysis is based on global characteristics and indicators;short-term, making several trading transactions during the year;positional, working on a long-term strategy. Transactions last for several days with profit taking during periods of reduced activity (holidays, vacations, etc.);a day trader who makes transactions during the day (one trading session). As a rule, such traders have a small trading capital, and trading positions are realized quickly;a scalper who makes trades in a very short period (from a few seconds to 10 minutes). With a large number of operations, profitability is not ensured for every transaction. Traders working on this strategy are forced to constantly stay at the monitor and monitor suitable transactions.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyWhat does a currency player doFirstly, he trades various currencies. The principle of successful trading is simple – it is cheaper to buy and more expensive to sell. The trader operates with currency pairs consisting of two currencies. The most popular currency pair is EUR/USD. When buying such a pair, a trader buys euros for US dollars.The main advantage of the Forex market for traders is its liquidity. There is a constant supply and demand in Forex, and trading is conducted without interruptions five days a week. The choice of currency pairs for trading is wide: you can trade "majors" (the so-called pairs that are traded through the dollar) or "crosses" (without using the dollar).A trader should be ready to trade not only theoretically. No less important is the right psychological attitude, which is often ignored by beginners. Having familiarized themselves with a couple of strategies, they rush headlong into trading, risking losing all their money and forgetting about the two main enemies of the trader – fear and greed. Greed often kills capital, and fear does not allow it to increase.Many newcomers seek to get rich instantly by opening deals and not thinking about money management. Most often, such traders simply lose all their money. Trying to quickly increase the capital from $100 to $1,000, the trader opens transactions with a large volume, increasing the psychological burden. Mistakes appear, and money goes away. Risk management is very important for a trader. When opening a trade, a trader must accurately imagine the possible volume of not only profits, but also losses. Minimizing risks is the main task that a trader should be able to solve.Read more: How to become a trader from scratchFrom amateurs to professionalsA successful amateur of stock trading can become a professional. Professional trading has clear advantages: the trader now works only for himself, he does not need to go to work in the office, he plans his own working hours. But the main thing now is that the trader is the owner of his own capital, and only his well–being depends on his work.A professional stock market player lives by certain interests - news related to stock markets, currencies, economics, stock statistics, commodity prices. Plunging into this atmosphere, after a while the trader begins to understand this, makes decisions based on independent analysis. For a professional, there is no limit to the accumulation of information and knowledge. He is constantly improving – only this is the key to his success in the ...
According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...
Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...