Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

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EUR/USD: buy on the decline, sell on the strengthening
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: buy on the decline, sell on the strengthening FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on June 20, 2024The parity of the euro and the dollar is not expected. Eurosceptics do not plan to develop a Frexit plan that could bring down the exchange rate of the single currency and, as a result, the EUR/USD pair. Marine Le Pen confirmed that her National Unification party is ready to cooperate with Emmanuel Macron and complies with current legislation. Is it possible that after coming to power, the right will abandon their promises to reduce taxes and expand budget spending on social needs? If so, then the political crisis in France will end before it has even begun.After the victory of the party For Freedom in the elections in the Netherlands, its leader Geert Wilders abandoned the idea of holding a referendum on leaving the EU. Georgia Meloni, who criticized the EU, turned into a team player after being appointed Prime Minister of Italy and cooperates with Brussels. Everyone understands that the political popularity of the euro outweighs its economic disadvantages. And it is unlikely that citizens of the European Union countries will want to change the euro to a depreciating local currency.There is practically no chance of the EU breaking up. The main concerns of investors were related to the contradictions between the policy of the "National Association" and the European Union. Brussels will insist on compliance with the financial stability pact, which requires countries with debt above 60% of GDP to reduce the deficit to 3%. France, with its 111% debt, has a negative budget balance of 5.5%. Fiscal incentives, so widely promised by the right, can further increase it.There is also no point in panicking about the growth of the yield differential of French and German bonds to the maximum since 2012. The main reason for the differential is the reduction in German debt rates based on expectations of a weakening of the ECB's monetary policy. French debt rates remain stable, and buyers are on them.It is possible that the European Central Bank (ECB) will intervene in the situation, although it is unlikely to rescue Paris directly, preferring to purchase bonds of those Eurozone countries that are being sold off after the French ones. The fact that the ECB does not consider the current fluctuations in the European bond market to be critical indicates that the situation is not as dire as it seems.We can say that politics will not drown the euro. However, this does not mean that EUR/USD quotes cannot fall from current values. According to Nordea, the Fed will keep the rate at 5.5% until the last and will reduce it only in December. On the contrary, the ECB will take two more steps to ease monetary policy in 2024, since one reduction in the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75% is not enough to support the weak Eurozone economy.If we add to this the possible response of China in the trade war with the EU and the risks of Donald Trump's return to power with his protectionist policies, it becomes clear that EUR/USD is unlikely to be able to count on rapid growth. However, it is still possible to profit from forex trading on the news. The positive is suitable for purchases from the 1.0755 level and negative factors for sales from the 1.0725 ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY for Monday, June 17, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY for Monday, June 17, 2024 EUR/USD: downtrend is expected to intensifyDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate was fixed near 1.0700, partly due to the easing of the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and weak economic statistics from the eurozone countries.The ECB lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, while the US Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 5.50%, which contributed to the EUR/USD pair breaking down the 1.0737 mark. The April decline in industrial production in the European Union to -0.1% monthly, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.1% growth, and revised data from the previous month from 0.6% to 0.5% confirmed the weakness of economic activity. At the same time, inflation in France decreased slightly: the monthly figure decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%, and the annual figure decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%, without providing the euro with significant support for strengthening. These factors suggest that the pressure on the euro may continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0890, 1.0976.Support levels: 1.0613, 1.0460, 1.0290.GBP/USD: at Bank of America Corp. it's expected that the British rate will not change and will amount to 5.25%The GBP/USD pair is showing a slight drop, continuing the downward strengthening trend that began at the end of last week after updating the lows for May 17. The currency instrument is approaching the level of 1.2680, where a breakdown down is possible, but traders refrain from active actions ahead of new data on the state of the UK economy.Inflation data for May is expected next Wednesday: the consumer price index is expected to fall from 2.3% to 2.0%, and the main inflation indicator will decrease from 3.9% to 3.5%. It is also predicted that the producer purchase price index will decrease by 0.3% after an increase of 0.6% in April, and the producer selling price index will decrease from 0.2% to 0.1%, while the retail price index should decrease from 3.3% to 3.1%.The published inflation figures will be available on the eve of the Bank of England meeting, at which a rate cut of 25 basis points is possible. Analysts from Bank of America Corp. It is believed that the regulator will leave the rate at 5.25%, fearing the consequences of too early monetary policy easing. After April's data on inflation and wages, which showed insufficient improvement to change the course to a softer one, the authorities are looking for additional evidence that the risks of price increases in the service sector have been minimized.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539.USD/CHF: adapting to long-term growthThe USD/CHF pair is observing a correction, approaching the value of 0.8878 due to disappointing American macroeconomic statistics, which allows it to return to long-term growth.In the United States, the producer price index fell by 0.2% in May compared with a month earlier, falling short of the projected 0.1% after rising by 0.5% a month earlier. The base value of the index remained unchanged, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.3% and the previous indicator of 0.5%. There was also an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits to 242.0 thousand, while 225.0 thousand were predicted. At the same time, it is possible that the decline in the dollar will be offset by data from Switzerland, where the producer price index decreased from the expected 0.5% to -0.3% after the previous increase of 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.9005, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.8880, 0.8715.USD/JPY: Central Bank of Japan is preparing to cut purchases of government bondsThe USD/JPY pair stabilized its positions at the level of 157.62, approaching April highs caused by the bullish surge of the yen in response to currency interventions by the Bank of Japan.At the last meeting on Friday, the members of the Bank of Japan left the rate at the level of 0.00% to 0.10% and announced plans to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds, the details of which will be worked out by the next meetings on July 30 and 31. This decision was supported by eight of the nine board members. After the meeting, the regulator will present concrete steps to reduce its unprecedentedly large balance sheet, which will be part of a strategy to end the period of aggressive economic stimulus aimed at freer formation of long-term interest rates in the financial market. According to analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the bank will gradually reduce bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to 5 trillion yen per month, predicting that the yield on ten-year bonds will reach 2.0% by the end of 2026, and the key interest rate will range from 1.25% to 1.50% by 2027. While the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, did not rule out a rate hike in July due to the pressure caused by the rise in import prices and the weakening of the yen, the regulator stressed that all decisions will be made on the basis of up-to-date economic information.Support levels: 156.70, 154.70.Resistance levels: 158.30, ...
EURUSD: it's too early for the Fed to celebrate victory over inflation:
EUR/USD, currency, EURUSD: it\'s too early for the Fed to celebrate victory over inflation: FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on June 14, 2024The Federal Reserve System (Fed) refuses to celebrate the victory over inflation. The risks of political instability in France and the deterioration of the country's financial system also negatively affect the EURUSD rate. Despite the rally in stock indexes, lower Treasury yields and slowing inflation in the United States, the regional currency remains under pressure. This is reminiscent of the old principle of the market – not to go against the Fed.The Fed's position is clear. In the 70s of the last century, the premature celebration of the victory over inflation led to a double recession, and no one wants to repeat this mistake. It is no coincidence that Jerome Powell talks everywhere about the conservatism of the Federal Reserve.At the same time, the recent FOMC forecasts already look outdated against the background of an almost unchanged base CPI and a reduction in PPI in May. Nomura estimates that the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) will fall to 0.113% on a monthly basis, which implies a drop in PCE below the target level of 2% per annum. Three- and six-month consumer price metrics confirm the development of disinflation.Potential implications for the U.S. economyKeeping the federal funds rate at 5.5% may have a negative impact on both the economy and US stock indices, and through currency correlation on risky assets. For stock markets, bad news from macroeconomic indicators becomes good, but this trend cannot continue indefinitely. The correction of the S&P 500 can cause an increase in demand for the dollar as a protective toolPolitical instability in EuropePolitical instability in Europe is exacerbating the EURUSD situation. France is not Greece, its finances are in better condition than those of the troubled Eurozone countries, but the situation is getting worse, as evidenced by the downgrade of the S&P Global credit rating. The reluctance of the French to tighten their belts and the possible rise to power of eurosceptics may worsen the situation.Forecasts and trading strategyRising government spending, budget deficits and public debt in France could lead to conflict with the European Union, French bond sales and rising yields, which would hit Europe's largest banking system. Paris should take into account the lessons of London, where in 2022 the intention of the Liz Truss government to reduce taxes without adequate financing led to the collapse of bonds and the pound. A similar scenario may develop for EURUSD, despite the positive signals from the United States.If the market is not moving in the expected direction, it is likely to head in the opposite direction – a well-known postulate of forex currency trading. The rise of the EURUSD against the background of a slowdown in the American CPI resembles a "dead cat jump". We keep short positions open in the area of 1.0835-1.085 and increase them on upward pullbacks. The targets remain at 1.06 and 1.05 ...
EUR/USD: market is waiting for a Fed rate cut
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: market is waiting for a Fed rate cut FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on June 13, 2024The Federal Reserve System (Fed) in its updated forecasts points to one reduction in the federal funds rate in 2024, urging "trust, but check." The market, responding to the same principle, continues to believe in two acts of monetary expansion after the release of the May inflation report in the United States. In an environment where monetary policy depends on data, statistics become the main factor of influence. However, this time the market reacted unexpectedly, causing fluctuations in the EURUSD rate.Reaction to inflation dataThe absence of an increase in core inflation with an increase in consumer prices by 0.16% (mom) has energized the bulls. The probability of a federal funds rate cut in September jumped to 80%, and the chances of two acts of monetary expansion in 2024 jumped to 69%. As a result, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply, dragging the dollar with it.Jerome Powell's comments and updated FOMC forecastsAt yesterday's press conference, Jerome Powell noted that the Fed has made some progress in combating inflation and called the May report a step in the right direction, but stressed the need to generate further confirmation signals. Despite this, the markets reacted quite violently to the updated FOMC rate forecast.Four FOMC members do not expect monetary policy easing in 2024. Seven members supported one act of monetary expansion, and eight supported two. In the spring, it was about two and five members, respectively. Previously, ten members of the Committee had seen at least three cuts in the federal funds rate. Now their views have changed, which allowed the EURUSD bears to partially recover from the blows inflicted by the inflation statistics for May.Market expectations and the Fed's cautionAlthough the chances of a rate cut in September fell to 62%, derivatives still point to a 62% probability of two acts of monetary expansion in 2024. Investors believe that the Fed's estimates are too conservative and that the Fed may be overly cautious.Unlike other world central banks, which have already lowered rates or expressed confidence in achieving inflation goals, the Fed is in no hurry to ease monetary policy. This is due to strong US GDP growth, which is holding back the Fed's change of course. The US financial system is less dependent on bank lending than in the past, and many homeowners are protected from aggressive monetary restriction in 2022-2023 due to fixed mortgage rates.Historical lessons and current strategyNevertheless, the Fed must be prudent and careful to avoid the mistakes of the 70s of the last century, when the premature declaration of victory over inflation led to a double recession. This caution helped to avoid a catastrophic fall in the dollar. After the slowdown in CPI growth and the FOMC forecast for one rate cut, our forex trading strategy presupposes the sale of EURUSD on strengthening. Those who took advantage of this advice were able to open short positions in the area of 1.0835-1.085. We continue to hold the shorts.EUR/USD Technical analysisAfter the Fed's two-day interest rate meeting, the US dollar weakened against most world currencies. This allowed EUR/USD to strengthen towards the resistance area (B) 1.0858 - 1.0845.But here the pair met resistance from sellers and failed to break above the key level.. This suggests that today the downward short-term trend remains in force. We will consider selling the pair on an upward correction with the nearest target at 1.0788. The second target will be at least on June 11.To change the trend and switch to buying EUR/USD, it is necessary to break through the 1.0858 level and consolidate higher. In this case, the direction of the short-term trend will change to an upward one with a target in the area of 1.0996 - ...

Articles about financial markets

The EU economy will not recover until 2023
EUR/USD, currency, The EU economy will not recover until 2023 ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...
Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
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