Trading signals and online forecasts EUR/USD

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EUR/USD: European currency is entering the growth line
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: European currency is entering the growth line FOREX Fundamental analysis on February 22, 2024As a rule, fears come from uncertainty, so it is difficult to be afraid of what is already known. The market expected such rhetoric from the Fed, which could postpone the first reduction in federal funds rates to a later date. This was also discussed by representatives of the Federal Reserve at the end of January. However, now, a series of strong economic reports from the United States has changed forex currency trading. The publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting raised the EURUSD quotes.The Fed is facing a difficult choice. Moving too slowly away from tight monetary policy could expose the U.S. economy to the risk of recession. Too fast a transition can trigger inflation again. Three weeks ago, the market expected the start of monetary expansion in March, so the phrase from the minutes that the majority of FOMC members are worried about the risks of premature rate cuts should have disappointed EURUSD. But this did not happen.In fact, the U.S. economy has turned out to be surprisingly strong, and inflation continues to slow down. In such circumstances, monetary policy easing would be premature.Investors drew attention to other signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its intention to carry out three acts of monetary expansion in 2024. Also, do not forget about the regulator's plans to reduce the balance sheet, which usually happens along with a reduction in rates. According to FOMC members, a slowdown in asset sales will prolong the QT program and reduce the risks of market destabilization. Reducing the supply of treasuries will raise bond prices and lower yields. This is positive news for EURUSD.So Jerome Powell and his colleagues tried to scare investors in January, but a lot has changed since then. The markets themselves have come to the conclusion that the federal funds rate will begin to decline in June. As for the scale of the expected monetary expansion, after the publication of the protocols, they decreased slightly - from 90 bps to 86 bps. It is not surprising that EURUSD buyers were not afraid of this news.Sales of the US dollar, which has lost its main support, are gaining momentum. Strong data on European business activity may further support the growth of the main currency pair. According to Citi, the previous dynamics of the PMI shows that the purchasing managers' indices in the Old and New World are either growing together, or the discrepancy between them is decreasing. This is considered a clear signal for the growth of the EURUSD. In addition, the overall positive dynamics of economic surprises in different countries indicates an improvement in the state of the global economy.The euro, as a pro-cyclical currency, reacts positively to the good news of global GDP, which creates prerequisites for the continuation of the upward trend of EURUSD in the direction of the previously mentioned target of $1,088. It makes sense to maintain long positions formed in the area of 1.1073-1.079.EUR/USD Technical analysisOn Thursday morning, EUR/USD seeks to break the resistance 1.0833 - 1.0820 and gain a foothold above this level. If the American trading session ends above the specified resistance, the short-term trend will change to an upward one. In the case of such a scenario, starting tomorrow, purchases of the instrument are possible in order to test the upper limit of the target zone 1.0972 - 1.0946.If, during today's trading, prices return back with a subsequent update of the minimum on February 21, then conditions are formed for entering short positions with the goal of the minimum mark on February ...
EUR/USD: buy while they sell cheap
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: buy while they sell cheap FOREX Fundamental analysis on February 21, 2024The whole world is in constant motion, and financial markets are no exception here. A few weeks ago, traders were confident of an imminent reduction in federal funds rates, which forced Jerome Powell to cool the ardor of investors.Currently, traders expect the minutes of the January FOMC meeting to demonstrate harsh rhetoric. Actually, the markets still heard the Fed, as a result of which the US dollar lost its key position in forex currency trading, allowing the EURUSD to gain a foothold above the 1.08 level.In fact, there is a certain logic in the fact that the main currency pair, despite the strong data on January CPI and PPI, did not collapse to the level of parity. The index of personal consumption expenditures, an indicator of inflation for the Fed, decreased from a peak of 7.1% in June 2022 to 2.6% in December last year. However, this figure includes a 4% increase in inflation in the first quarter of 2023, which will soon fade into oblivion. On a six-month basis, the PCE has already approached the target level of 2%, and on a three-month basis it even approached zero. It is logical that the Fed is preparing to cut rates in 2024, despite the fact that experts' estimates on the scale of monetary expansion have fallen to 3-4 acts.But is it possible to keep inflation low with a strong economy? Theoretically, this is unlikely. In practice, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, as well as the related destruction and subsequent restoration of supply chains, as well as artificial intelligence technologies have dramatically increased labor productivity over the past three quarters to 3.9%. This is twice as much as in the decade before COVID-19. As a result, US GDP is growing, contributing not only to the strengthening of stock indexes, but also to the acceleration of the economies of other countries.The euro reacts sensitively to global growth, as it relates to pro-cyclical currencies, especially given the reduction in the main PBoC interest rate. This can support the Chinese economy, and the outstripping dynamics of wages in comparison with inflation can help the Eurozone economy. As a result, global economic growth may be higher than expected, which will be a positive factor for the EURUSD bulls.Although the euro certainly has its vulnerabilities. The main problem of the main currency pair is the risks of accelerating American inflation. This can affect stock indices, increase the yield of US Treasury bonds and, through currency correlation, support the US dollar. However, there is still a lot of time before the new CPI and PPI data, and so far EURUSD can enjoy success.What doesn't kill us makes us stronger. If the euro passes the test of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, EURUSD buyers will receive an incentive to push the pair at least to the level of 1.088. When everyone sells, there is a great opportunity to ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th EUR/USD: the corrective strengthening of the euro has been suspendedThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, rolling back from the peak values reached on February 13 and updated recently. Trading is taking place near the 1.0765 level, while the market is waiting for new incentives to move. The activity of traders at the beginning of the week is low, which is facilitated by the lack of significant economic news from Europe and the American stock exchanges closed on Monday in honor of Presidents' Day.The next day, the focus will be on the session of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the speech of the head of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. The ECB's previously published monthly report pointed to a recession in the German economy caused by weak external demand and limited consumer spending, as well as high ECB interest rates that make domestic investment difficult. It is expected that production volume may decrease in the first quarter. On Wednesday, data on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone for February will be announced, and an improvement in the indicator is predicted. Also, the market's attention will be focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the rate remained unchanged. On Thursday, traders will focus on data on business activity indices in the eurozone for February and updated inflation statistics for January.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660.GBP/USD: the currency pair is stagnating in anticipation of incentives for activityThe GBP/USD currency pair is in a state of practical balance, hovering around the 1.2585 level. Market players are weighing the chances of new incentives to activate trading, while market volatility at the beginning of this week shows moderate indicators. In the USA, trading platforms did not work on the previous day due to Presidents' Day, while in the UK, investors' attention was focused on updating data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in February, the growth rate slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, and over the year the index increased by 0.1%, showing an improvement after the previous decrease of 0.7%.Support for the British pound continues to come from retail sales data released at the end of last week. In January, sales increased by 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% drop a month earlier and analysts' expectations of 1.5%. Year-on-year growth was 0.7%, which is significantly better than the projected decrease of 1.4%. Sales excluding fuel also showed an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding experts' expectations.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.AUD/USD: the RBA is considering a future rate hikeDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a pullback from the peak values reached on February 2 and re-recorded the previous day, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, stabilizing at 0.6536.Attention to the Australian dollar on Tuesday was attracted by the published results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), held on February 5-6, where it was emphasized that the main reason for maintaining the interest rate at 4.35% is the high level of inflation. The document notes that with further acceleration of inflation, the regulator may consider raising rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is expected to return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by 2025, according to RBA forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the price of Brent Crude Oil has been rising, reaching the resistance level of $ 82.80 per barrel.The increase in prices is due to concerns about the supply of fuel due to tensions in the Red Sea area. Attacks by the Ansar Allah group on merchant ships aimed at exerting pressure on Israel's military actions are causing instability in supplies. However, the prospect of reduced demand for oil and petroleum products limits this growth. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrocarbon consumption is expected to fall due to the economic recession in the UK and Japan, with daily consumption forecast at 1.22 million barrels, down from previous estimates of 1.24 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...
EUR/USD: the gloss is coming off the dollar
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the gloss is coming off the dollar FOREX Fundamental analysis on February 20, 2024It is always difficult to give up beliefs, especially if it is associated with a possible financial loss. It is just as difficult to believe that the Fed in 2024 can cut rates not 6, but only 3-4 times, as it is to accept that the US economy is starting a new stage of growth instead of a soft landing. The change in market narratives led to a strengthening of the dollar in January-February, but it seems that the euro is also starting to recover after a strong blow.When signs of a slowdown in the United States economy appear, dollar sellers are immediately ready to adjust forex trading strategies. They are often able to find tricks even in positive statistics. For example, an impressive increase in employment by 353 thousand in January caused criticism, as a number of experts considered them to be overestimated and suggests an adjustment in the following months.A lot depends on whether the US economy starts a soft landing or enters a new phase of growth. In the first case, the dollar may lose the attractiveness associated with American exceptionalism. However, at the moment the economy looks stable, and the reasons for this lie not only in fiscal incentives and accumulated savings, but also in migration policy and military events.While Congress is worried about illegal migration, the Budget Office is raising GDP forecasts. The economy is expected to expand by 2.1% due to labor force growth of 1.7 million over capacity in 2024 and 5.2 million in 2033. This will lead to an increase in tax revenues. It is assumed that the budget deficit in ten years will amount to 6.4% of GDP, which is less than expected in 2023.According to the calculations of the White House, 64% of the amount of $60.7 billion provided in the form of assistance to Ukraine will return back. Due to the increase in orders from the Pentagon for Ukraine and the European Union, industrial production in this area has increased by 17.5% since February 2022.If Russia's GDP is growing at the expense of the military industry, why can't the American economy do the same? The dollar may retain its attractiveness due to American exceptionalism, which will allow the Fed to hold rates for a long time, and investors to keep funds in money market funds. The transition to bonds may reduce the yield of treasuries, the flow of finance into stocks will raise global risk appetite, which will be a positive factor for EURUSD.The pair's prospects in the context of medium-term forex trading are still unclear. In the short term, investors fear that the Fed may confront the market on the issue of the first rate cut, which may be reflected in the FOMC minutes. A possible hawkish direction will deter the EURUSD bulls. The situation is reminiscent of December, when Jerome Powell's inability to balance the markets led to a decline in the dollar.It seems to me that if the EURUSD bears fail to lower the quotes below 1.073 in the coming days, or if the pair rises above 1.079, we should proceed to ...

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The EU economy will not recover until 2023
EUR/USD, currency, The EU economy will not recover until 2023 ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...
Weekly review. January 10, 2022
EUR/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Weekly review. January 10, 2022 The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Forex and Binary Options - which is better?
EUR/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex and Binary Options - which is better? Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...
Forex trading: understanding the forex market
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex trading: understanding the forex market The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...
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