USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, ...
USA: awaiting reports on the labor market and consumer sentimentTwo important macroeconomic reports will be released in the United States today — the March JOLTs on hiring dynamics and the April consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. Job vacancy data is a key indicator of the state of labor demand for the Fed. Despite the uncertainty caused by the tariff policy, stable data on daily job advertisements suggest that demand remains at an acceptable level.The Eurozone: Spanish inflation and business activityOn European platforms, attention will be focused on the publication of inflation data in Spain for April. This release precedes the general report on inflation in the eurozone, which will be released on Friday. The HICP index is expected to slow growth from 2.2% to 2.1% in annual terms.Of additional interest are data on lending and business sentiment in the eurozone for April, which will be able to reflect the first effects of the new US tariffs.China: expectation of a decline in manufacturing activityIn Asia, the PMI indices for April from NBS and private Caixin will be published. According to expectations, both indicators will show a decline, confirming the negative impact of the ongoing trade war. The previously published Emerging Industries PMI dropped sharply from 59.6 to 49.4 points.Sweden: macroeconomic releases and growth prospectsSwedish statistics today are rich in publications. At 08:00 CET, reports on retail sales and consumer lending for March are expected. The GDP indicator for the first quarter will attract special attention, however, due to its volatility, analysts prefer the NIER economic sentiment index, which will be released at 09:00 CET. Its further decline may signal a slowdown in the Swedish economy.Norway: retail sales remain questionableRetail sales statistics for March will be published in Norway. Despite the global instability, it is unlikely to be reflected in these data. Sales growth is forecast to slow to 0.1% month-on-month, although the effect of postponing holidays makes it difficult to assess the real state of consumer activity.Economic and market news: key eventsCanadian Elections: liberal victoryIn the last parliamentary elections in Canada, the Liberal Party under the leadership of Mark Carney retained power. Although the results had not yet provided them with a full majority in parliament at the time of publication, the victory marks the restoration of the party's position after the resignation of Justin Trudeau. Carney relied on his reputation, formed during the crisis of 2008 and the Brexit process.Macroeconomic data from Denmark, Sweden and NorwayIn Denmark, retail sales in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% compared to February, mainly due to lower food costs. However, clothing sales increased by 2.7%.In Sweden, the producer price index decreased for the second month in a row (-3.0% mom, -0.3% YoY), which reduces inflation risks and supports the Riksbank's position.In Norway, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in March, but the adjusted data remained unchanged at 4.1%. More recent unemployment statistics will be published on Friday.Geopolitics: the Truce in UkraineRussian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day truce from May 8-10 in honor of the anniversary of the end of World War II, inviting world leaders to events. Ukraine has criticized, insisting on the need for an immediate and full-fledged ceasefire. The White House supported the idea of a truce, but stressed that the goal should be a long-term peace initiative.Stock markets: stabilization and local successesThe trading session in the American markets passed without significant changes, while the European indices showed growth: the Stoxx 600 added 0.5%. Shares of companies in defensive sectors such as real estate, utilities and healthcare rose against the background of lower bond yields. The VIX volatility index has stabilized around 25 points, which may indicate prolonged uncertainty due to tariff policy.Debt and currency markets: declining yields in the United StatesAt the start of the week, US Treasury bonds continued to rise in price: the yield on 2-year securities decreased by 6 basis points, 10-year — by 3 bps, and 30-year— by 2 bps. European yields, on the contrary, rose slightly. The EUR/USD pair remained stable in the range of 1.13–1.14. The victory of the liberals in Canada led to a moderate strengthening of the Canadian dollar, and a further decline in the USD/CAD pair is expected to reach 1.37. The Norwegian krone also showed good results at the end of yesterday's ...
Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
USD/CAD analysis on April 18, 2025In a shortened trading session due to the Good Friday celebrations in North America, the USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate recovery, testing the 1.3865 level after a recent pullback to November lows. The absence of new macroeconomic releases shifts the attention of market participants to technical factors and prospects for the settlement of trade disputes.The White House administration continues to signal the possibility of early agreements with the EU and China, although current conditions remain extremely stringent. Chinese exporters still face 145% duties, while European goods face a base rate of 10% with an additional 25% levies on automotive products.The American statistics, published the day before, presented a mixed picture.Improved data on initial applications for unemployment benefits (215 thousand against the expected 225 thousand)Deterioration in the rate of repeat referrals (1.885 million versus the forecast of 1.87 million)Unexpected increase in building permits to 1.482 millionSharp drop in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business activity Index to -26.4 pointsAt the last meeting, the Bank of Canada confirmed market expectations, leaving the rate at 2.75%. In an accompanying statement, the regulator highlighted the risks to economic growth associated with the escalation of the trade conflict with the United States, which justifies maintaining the current monetary policy.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows signs of a possible reversal:The narrowing Bollinger band retains the potential for movementMACD shows the first signals of a possible bullish crossingStochastic oscillator in the oversold zone indicates correction risksTrading recommendationsFor traders considering a buy scenario, the key entry level will be the breakdown of 1.3908 with the prospect of moving to the psychologically important 1.4000 mark. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 1.3850.An alternative bearish scenario suggests a breakdown of the 1.3839 support, which will pave the way for testing the 1.3730 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for short positions at ...
In Tuesday's Asian session, after a pullback from the April highs, USD/CAD continues its corrective movement, testing the level of 1.4170. The current dynamics reflect the caution of market participants in anticipation of new drivers to determine the direction.The US currency is facing growing fears of a recession caused by a new wave of trade restrictions. The Trump administration has imposed import duties ranging from 10% to 49% on various countries, including 34% tariffs on China, which combined with previous measures reach almost 60%. The Chinese authorities have already promised mirror retaliatory measures, which may be announced this week.Despite the positive employment data in the United States (the growth of new jobs from 117,000 to 228,000), the market notes some alarming signals:- Average hourly wage growth decelerated to 3.8% YoY- An increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%Canadian macroeconomic indicators show deterioration- Reduction of employment by 32.6 thousand instead of the expected growth- The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%- A slowdown in wage growth to 3.5%- Negative trade balance (-1.52 billion dollars)Of particular concern is the 3.6% decline in exports to the United States, especially in key sectors subject to new tariffs (automobiles, steel, aluminum, lumber).USD/CAD technical analysisThe following readings of technical indicators are observed on the daily chart- The Bollinger Band indicator narrows, following the price down- The MACD retains a weak bearish signal- Stochastic shows divergence, heading upTrading recommendationsFor sales, we should wait for a breakdown down to 1.4145 with the prospect of moving to 1.4050. We will set a protective stop at 1.4200.For purchases, a rebound from 1.4145 is needed, followed by consolidation above 1.4200, which opens the way to 1.4296. We will place the stop loss at 1.4145.The current situation requires special attention to the development of the trade conflict and the reaction of the Canadian economy to new restrictions, which may significantly affect the dynamics of the pair in the coming ...
The USD/CAD pair demonstrates a corrective movement in the area of 1.4218 during the Asian session, reacting to the deterioration in the Canadian labor market. The March employment statistics interrupted the positive dynamics observed during the last quarter, showing a significant deterioration in key indicators.Recent data has revealed a complex deterioration of the situation:Total employment decreased by 33,000 jobs (-0.2%)Full-time employment decreased by 62,000 (-0.4%)The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% (the highest since November 2024)The number of unemployed increased by 36 thousand compared to FebruaryOf particular concern is the decrease in employment in the private sector by 48,000 positions, which was only partially offset by growth in the public sector. These data indicate growing problems in the real sector of the economy.The US currency, on the contrary, is showing signs of recovery, rising to 102.40 in the DXY index. This increase is due to comments by Fed Chairman Powell, who did not rule out the possibility of easing monetary policy in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the May meeting to 4.00-4.25% is estimated by the market at 54.7%.USD/CAD technical analysisOn the daily chart, the pair is trying to overcome the support of the descending channel 1.4040-1.4430. Technical indicators maintain a bearish signal:The "Alligator" indicator shows the downward expansion of the oscillation rangeAwesome Oscillator forms correction bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales, you should wait for a confirmed breakout of the 1.4170 level with the prospect of moving to 1.3950, setting a protective stop loss at 1.4250.For purchases, it is necessary to consolidate above 1.4280, which may open the way to testing 1.4510, with the protection of the position at ...
EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, ...
On Tuesday, USD/CAD shows an uncertain movement near the level of 1.4315. Investors are refraining from active actions in anticipation of new drivers that can set a clear direction for the asset. The caution of the bidders is explained by the mixed signals of the fundamental indicators.The March business activity indices in the United States presented a contradictory picture. The manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted (the PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points), while the service sector showed strong growth (from 51.0 to 54.3 points). Today, the market's attention is focused on data on new home sales and the price index, which may confirm a slowdown in price pressure in the construction sector.The Canadian Government is taking active steps to strengthen the national economy in the face of trade challenges. Prime Minister Mark Carney's plan includes:- Simplification of internal trade barriers- Investments in transport infrastructure- Acceleration of the implementation of major projectsThese measures are aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the Canadian economy in the face of external pressure.USD/CAD technical analysisThe main forex indicators paint an ambiguous picture:- Bollinger bands show a narrowing of the range- MACD shows weak bearish dynamics- Stochastic is turning downwards after a recent riseThis configuration indicates market indecision and a possible trend change.Trading recommendationsShort positions: relevant for the breakdown of 1.4300 with a target of 1.4200. The stop loss is 1.4350.Purchases will be promising with a rebound from 1.4300 and overcoming 1.4350 with a target of 1.4451. Stop loss ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...
Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month. In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit. To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements. Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...