USD/CHF: trading activity is entering a mixed phaseThe quotes of the USD/CHF pair show mixed dynamics, holding near the level of 0.8836 after a significant decline recorded in the previous trading session.The Swiss franc is under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics. In the third quarter, the growth rate of industrial production in the country decreased from 7.0% to 3.5%, which signaled a slowdown in economic activity. Additionally, inflation data had a negative impact: in October, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the indicator decreased to -1.8% from -1.3%, which indicates the continued pressure of deflationary factors.The American statistics, which will be published on Friday, may support the dollar. S&P Global business activity indices are expected to show growth: in the manufacturing sector, an increase from 48.5 to 48.8 points is forecast, and in the services sector — from 55.0 to 55.2 points, which will confirm the stability of the US economy. Additionally, the market will focus on the speech of the head of the Swiss National Bank Martin Schlegel, which is scheduled for Friday at 14:40 (GMT+2). Investors will closely monitor his comments on monetary policy, given that Schlegel became head of the regulator only in October 2024, and his statements may provide a new vector for the movement of the franc.Resistance levels: 0.8865, 0.8900, 0.8935, 0.8964.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8730.USD/CAD: investors are preparing for the publication of October inflation in CanadaIn the morning hours, the USD/CAD pair shows recovery, playing back the decline recorded earlier in the week, which did not allow the instrument to gain a foothold at its maximum values since May 2020.Key data on inflation in Canada will be presented today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase from 1.6% to 1.9% in annual terms, and from -0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Experts, however, note that inflation in the country continues to be in a downward trend. In September, the main correction factor — a decrease in the cost of gasoline — was caused by a drop in oil prices to $ 65.0 per barrel. Analysts believe that this trend could have continued in October, despite a temporary increase in oil prices to $ 75.0 per barrel.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets experts predict that core inflation will remain in the range of 2.4–2.5%. Although the tax increase will support the rise in housing costs, this effect will be offset by lower mortgage costs due to the Bank of Canada's decision to lower interest rates in October. Economists are confident that the regulator will take an additional 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting scheduled for December 11.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, 1.3862.NZD/USD: New Zealand Producer Price Index shows 1.5% growth in Q3During morning trading, the NZD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding near the 0.5890 level. The dynamics is due to the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of positive macroeconomic data and the weakening of the position of the US currency.According to published statistics, in the third quarter, the index of producer selling prices in New Zealand increased from 1.1% to 1.5%, and purchasing prices — from 1.4% to 1.9%. The price indicator for capital goods also showed a slight increase of 0.1%. The exception was the price index for agricultural expenses, which decreased by 0.2%. However, reducing the cost of equipment and raw materials in the agricultural sector can be seen as a positive signal for the economy.The US dollar, on the contrary, continues to weaken, dropping to the level of 106.10 in USDX. Investors are reacting to expectations of rising inflation related to the policies of the new US President Donald Trump. His plans to impose import tariffs and tax cuts involve financing through increased government debt, raising concerns about possible inflationary pressures. Analysts believe that this may force the US Federal Reserve to reconsider plans for further monetary policy easing, which could increase pressure on the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5930, 0.6060.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5730.AUD/USD: the pair strengthens its growth on the background of data from the United StatesThe quotes of the AUD/USD pair show steady growth around 0.6508, continuing the upward momentum formed at the end of last week. The rise occurred after the pair retreated from local lows on August 5 amid the release of weak macroeconomic data from the United States.The markets drew attention to the slowdown in retail sales in October: the indicator fell from 0.8% to 0.4%, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.3%, but the results excluding motor transport fell from 1.0% to 0.1%, not meeting analysts' expectations of 0.3%. Industrial production decreased by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% a month earlier, and the capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.4% to 77.1%, contrary to forecasts of 77.2%. At the same time, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly rose from -11.9 points to 31.2 points in November, significantly exceeding the projected -0.7 points.The Australian currency is also affected by the publication of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting held on November 5. At that time, the regulator left the interest rate at 4.35%, stressing that the current policy is in line with current domestic and international economic conditions. The RBA expressed concern about the slow slowdown in inflation, which is projected to remain in the range of 2.0–3.0% until the third quarter of 2025, with a possible increase due to the end of energy subsidies. In addition, despite the stability of the labor market, the rate of employment growth slowed down, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Against the background of these events, the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, said that the current cost of borrowing is already having a sufficient limiting effect on the economy and will remain at this level until more stable inflation forecasts are received. This statement continues to support the bullish market sentiment for the Australian currency.Resistance levels: 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6622.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6478, 0.6440, ...
USD/CAD analysis on November 19, 2024In Tuesday morning trading, USD/CAD shows a recovery after the decline at the beginning of the week, which did not allow it to gain a foothold at the highs of May 2020.On Friday, the US dollar came under pressure due to retail sales data. In October, the indicator decreased from 0.8% to 0.4%, which turned out to be higher than the predicted drop to 0.3%. However, excluding cars, it fell more significantly — from 1.0% to 0.1%, against the expected 0.3%. Industrial production also declined, but less sharply than before: from -0.5% to -0.3%. At the same time, the Canadian economy has shown improvement. Wholesale sales in September increased from -0.9% to 0.8%, almost matching expectations (0.9%), and production sales decreased from -1.3% to -0.5%. Yesterday's data also turned out to be positive: the volume of house construction increased from 223.4 thousand to 240.8 thousand in October, exceeding forecasts of 239 thousand.Today, investors' attention is focused on inflation data in Canada, which will be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). In October, the consumer price index is expected to rise from 1.6% to 1.9% in annual terms and from -0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. However, the general trend of inflation remains downward. Last month, the decline in gasoline prices due to cheaper oil to $ 65 per barrel became a key factor, and experts believe that a similar trend could have continued, despite a temporary increase in oil prices to $ 75 per barrel. BMO Capital Markets forecasts that core inflation will reach 2.4–2.5%. Higher taxes may increase the cost of housing, but this is offset by lower mortgage costs due to the interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October. Another 25 basis point rate cut is expected at the December 11 meeting.USD/CAD Technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger band indicator continues to expand, indicating the possibility of price growth, but the MACD indicator shows a downward reversal (the histogram tends to fall below the signal line). Stochastic, having left the overbought zone, confirms the likelihood of a downtrend in the short term.After breaking down the 1.4000 level, we open short positions with a target of 1.3908. We put the stop loss at 1.4050.In case of a rebound of the pair from the 1.4000 level and a breakdown up to 1.4050, we open purchases with a target of 1.4145. We will place the stop loss at ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
EUR/NZD: rising unemployment in New Zealand weakens the New Zealand dollarDuring the morning session, the EUR/NZD pair is trading around 1.8000, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the euro is due to the improvement of economic indicators in the eurozone and the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of weak employment data.There is a moderate improvement in the economic situation in the eurozone. The Sentix investor sentiment index rose to -12.8 points in November from -13.8 in October, indicating a slight recovery in confidence. However, the indicator turned out to be below the predicted level of -12.5 points, indicating the continued caution of investors. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the sentiment index also rose to -29.8 points from -31.5, reflecting a slight improvement in economic expectations. The industrial production index for September will be published in the eurozone today at 12:00 (GMT+2). Experts expect a decrease of 0.4% on a monthly basis after an increase of 0.6% in August.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase to 5%. Employment decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, which also exceeded the projected decrease of 0.4%. These data indicate a weakening of the labor market and may influence the decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding monetary policy. In New Zealand, the ANZ consumer confidence index for November is expected to be published tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+2). It is predicted that the index may decrease from 85.4 to 84.0 points, which will signal the growing concern of the population about the country's economic prospects.Resistance levels: 1.8050, 1.8100.Support levels: 1,7950, 1,7900.GBP/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan maintains a soft monetary policyDuring the morning session on November 8, the GBP/JPY pair was trading around 196.50, which is 0.3% higher compared to the previous session. The strengthening of the British pound is due to recent economic data and official statements.In the UK, the services Business Activity index (PMI) rose to 54.2 points in October from 53.6 in September, indicating continued growth in the sector. The consumer confidence index also improved, reaching -7 points compared to -9 in the previous month. At the last meeting, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25%, noting that inflation fell to 2.1% year-on-year, approaching the target level. The head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, said that the current monetary policy contributes to sustainable economic growth.The economic situation in Japan remains stable. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in October amounted to 50.5 points, which indicates a slight increase. The unemployment rate remains at 2.5%. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a soft monetary policy, keeping the interest rate at -0.1%. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank, noted that the current policy is aimed at stimulating economic growth and achieving the 2% inflation target. Data on orders for machinery and equipment for October is expected to be published tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT+2). A decrease of 0.3% is forecast compared to the previous month. Negative data may increase pressure on the yen, as a decrease in orders indicates a possible slowdown in industrial activity, which may support the Bank of Japan's position on soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 197.00, 198.50.Support levels: 195.50, 194.00.USD/CAD: weak Ivey index puts pressure on the Canadian dollarDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3915, which is 0.2% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the US dollar puts pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is influenced by weak macroeconomic statistics.In October, the Ivey composite business activity index, calculated on the basis of a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, fell from 53.1 points to 52.0 points, the lowest since spring, excluding the August drop, and the indicator, excluding seasonal fluctuations, from 54.4 points to 52.2 points, interrupting the upward trend. A report from the labor market will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): experts assume that unemployment will increase from 6.5% to 6.6% against the background of changes in employment from 46.7 thousand to 27.9 thousand.The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The market expects the regulator to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the next meeting. In addition, US inflation data released last week showed an increase in the consumer price index (CPI) by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, which is higher than analysts' forecasts. Today, November 8, at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. The indicator is expected to decrease from 210 thousand. up to 205 thousand, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3920, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3650.Silver market analysisAs of November 8, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is 24.50 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.8% higher compared to the previous trading session.In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) for October was published, which showed an increase of 0.3% for the month and 3.2% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, confirming the stability of the labor market. GDP for the third quarter grew by 2.5% year-on-year. These data strengthen the dollar's position, but also support silver as a protective asset, as a moderate increase in inflation keeps demand for precious metals in an uncertain environment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected to be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected at 72.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 71.0 points. An improvement in consumer sentiment may support the demand for silver as a protective asset in a stable market.In Europe, the economy is showing signs of slowing down. Euro area GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly below expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 points, indicating a decrease in activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concern about the slowdown in economic growth and its potential impact on global markets. In China, GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which supports interest in industrial metals, but the slowdown in the PMI to 50.2 indicates a potential limitation in demand for silver. On Monday, November 11, at 11:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production in the euro area for September will be released. An increase of 0.2% is expected compared to the previous month. Positive data may boost industrial demand for silver.Resistance levels: 25.00, 25.50.Support levels: 24.00, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
