Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
USA: awaiting reports on the labor market and consumer sentimentTwo important macroeconomic reports will be released in the United States today — the March JOLTs on hiring dynamics and the April consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. Job vacancy data is a key indicator of the state of labor demand for the Fed. Despite the uncertainty caused by the tariff policy, stable data on daily job advertisements suggest that demand remains at an acceptable level.The Eurozone: Spanish inflation and business activityOn European platforms, attention will be focused on the publication of inflation data in Spain for April. This release precedes the general report on inflation in the eurozone, which will be released on Friday. The HICP index is expected to slow growth from 2.2% to 2.1% in annual terms.Of additional interest are data on lending and business sentiment in the eurozone for April, which will be able to reflect the first effects of the new US tariffs.China: expectation of a decline in manufacturing activityIn Asia, the PMI indices for April from NBS and private Caixin will be published. According to expectations, both indicators will show a decline, confirming the negative impact of the ongoing trade war. The previously published Emerging Industries PMI dropped sharply from 59.6 to 49.4 points.Sweden: macroeconomic releases and growth prospectsSwedish statistics today are rich in publications. At 08:00 CET, reports on retail sales and consumer lending for March are expected. The GDP indicator for the first quarter will attract special attention, however, due to its volatility, analysts prefer the NIER economic sentiment index, which will be released at 09:00 CET. Its further decline may signal a slowdown in the Swedish economy.Norway: retail sales remain questionableRetail sales statistics for March will be published in Norway. Despite the global instability, it is unlikely to be reflected in these data. Sales growth is forecast to slow to 0.1% month-on-month, although the effect of postponing holidays makes it difficult to assess the real state of consumer activity.Economic and market news: key eventsCanadian Elections: liberal victoryIn the last parliamentary elections in Canada, the Liberal Party under the leadership of Mark Carney retained power. Although the results had not yet provided them with a full majority in parliament at the time of publication, the victory marks the restoration of the party's position after the resignation of Justin Trudeau. Carney relied on his reputation, formed during the crisis of 2008 and the Brexit process.Macroeconomic data from Denmark, Sweden and NorwayIn Denmark, retail sales in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% compared to February, mainly due to lower food costs. However, clothing sales increased by 2.7%.In Sweden, the producer price index decreased for the second month in a row (-3.0% mom, -0.3% YoY), which reduces inflation risks and supports the Riksbank's position.In Norway, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in March, but the adjusted data remained unchanged at 4.1%. More recent unemployment statistics will be published on Friday.Geopolitics: the Truce in UkraineRussian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day truce from May 8-10 in honor of the anniversary of the end of World War II, inviting world leaders to events. Ukraine has criticized, insisting on the need for an immediate and full-fledged ceasefire. The White House supported the idea of a truce, but stressed that the goal should be a long-term peace initiative.Stock markets: stabilization and local successesThe trading session in the American markets passed without significant changes, while the European indices showed growth: the Stoxx 600 added 0.5%. Shares of companies in defensive sectors such as real estate, utilities and healthcare rose against the background of lower bond yields. The VIX volatility index has stabilized around 25 points, which may indicate prolonged uncertainty due to tariff policy.Debt and currency markets: declining yields in the United StatesAt the start of the week, US Treasury bonds continued to rise in price: the yield on 2-year securities decreased by 6 basis points, 10-year — by 3 bps, and 30-year— by 2 bps. European yields, on the contrary, rose slightly. The EUR/USD pair remained stable in the range of 1.13–1.14. The victory of the liberals in Canada led to a moderate strengthening of the Canadian dollar, and a further decline in the USD/CAD pair is expected to reach 1.37. The Norwegian krone also showed good results at the end of yesterday's ...
USD/CAD analysis on April 18, 2025In a shortened trading session due to the Good Friday celebrations in North America, the USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate recovery, testing the 1.3865 level after a recent pullback to November lows. The absence of new macroeconomic releases shifts the attention of market participants to technical factors and prospects for the settlement of trade disputes.The White House administration continues to signal the possibility of early agreements with the EU and China, although current conditions remain extremely stringent. Chinese exporters still face 145% duties, while European goods face a base rate of 10% with an additional 25% levies on automotive products.The American statistics, published the day before, presented a mixed picture.Improved data on initial applications for unemployment benefits (215 thousand against the expected 225 thousand)Deterioration in the rate of repeat referrals (1.885 million versus the forecast of 1.87 million)Unexpected increase in building permits to 1.482 millionSharp drop in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business activity Index to -26.4 pointsAt the last meeting, the Bank of Canada confirmed market expectations, leaving the rate at 2.75%. In an accompanying statement, the regulator highlighted the risks to economic growth associated with the escalation of the trade conflict with the United States, which justifies maintaining the current monetary policy.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows signs of a possible reversal:The narrowing Bollinger band retains the potential for movementMACD shows the first signals of a possible bullish crossingStochastic oscillator in the oversold zone indicates correction risksTrading recommendationsFor traders considering a buy scenario, the key entry level will be the breakdown of 1.3908 with the prospect of moving to the psychologically important 1.4000 mark. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 1.3850.An alternative bearish scenario suggests a breakdown of the 1.3839 support, which will pave the way for testing the 1.3730 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for short positions at ...
In Tuesday's Asian session, after a pullback from the April highs, USD/CAD continues its corrective movement, testing the level of 1.4170. The current dynamics reflect the caution of market participants in anticipation of new drivers to determine the direction.The US currency is facing growing fears of a recession caused by a new wave of trade restrictions. The Trump administration has imposed import duties ranging from 10% to 49% on various countries, including 34% tariffs on China, which combined with previous measures reach almost 60%. The Chinese authorities have already promised mirror retaliatory measures, which may be announced this week.Despite the positive employment data in the United States (the growth of new jobs from 117,000 to 228,000), the market notes some alarming signals:- Average hourly wage growth decelerated to 3.8% YoY- An increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%Canadian macroeconomic indicators show deterioration- Reduction of employment by 32.6 thousand instead of the expected growth- The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%- A slowdown in wage growth to 3.5%- Negative trade balance (-1.52 billion dollars)Of particular concern is the 3.6% decline in exports to the United States, especially in key sectors subject to new tariffs (automobiles, steel, aluminum, lumber).USD/CAD technical analysisThe following readings of technical indicators are observed on the daily chart- The Bollinger Band indicator narrows, following the price down- The MACD retains a weak bearish signal- Stochastic shows divergence, heading upTrading recommendationsFor sales, we should wait for a breakdown down to 1.4145 with the prospect of moving to 1.4050. We will set a protective stop at 1.4200.For purchases, a rebound from 1.4145 is needed, followed by consolidation above 1.4200, which opens the way to 1.4296. We will place the stop loss at 1.4145.The current situation requires special attention to the development of the trade conflict and the reaction of the Canadian economy to new restrictions, which may significantly affect the dynamics of the pair in the coming ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
