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Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2 AUD/USD: developing a bullish momentumAUD/USD currency pair continues to grow actively, forming a strong upward momentum, which began yesterday. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6615, breaking through upwards, making new local highs since May 23. Such growth is due to the vulnerability of the U.S. currency, which is declining at the end of the current week.The weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia has almost no significant impact on the active growth of the instrument today. The index of trade conditions declined by 1.5% in the first quarter after the previous increase by 1.8%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts. Mortgage loan originations fell 3.8% in April after rising 5.5% the previous month, while analysts had expected a 3.0% decline. Investment borrowing for construction also declined 0.9% after a previous increase of 3.7%. Commerce Secretary Don Farrell said he will continue to consult on a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, negotiations on which began back in 2018. This agreement aims to establish a fair partnership for local producers and exporters. The official praised the benefits of access for Australian products to the European market, as it promotes national economic growth, investment, job creation and higher wages.Resistance levels: 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6590, 0.6563, 0.6530, 0.6489.USD/CHF: yesterday's publications have not changed the dynamics of the instrumentDuring the Asian session, the pair USD/CHF continues to decline, following the downward impulse, which was formed earlier, and is testing the level of 0.9040.Investors revise their forecasts on the future actions of the US Federal Reserve and assume that the interest rate will not reach the 5.0% level before the end of the year. In their speeches at the two-day meeting on June 13-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (FRB) President Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson, FRB board member, spoke in favor of not tightening monetary policy. In addition, the U.S. Senate passed by a majority a bill that eliminates the national debt limit until 2025 and provides for cuts in government spending. The document must now be signed by President Joe Biden.Macroeconomic statistics released Thursday had little effect on the trade instrument, with Swiss exports falling from 27.031 million francs in March to 19.902 million francs in April and imports falling from 22.505 million francs to 17.302 million francs. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 4.526 million francs to 2.601 million francs, below analysts' average forecast of 3.822 million francs.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150 and 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.EUR/USD: the single currency shows a correctionThe currency pair EUR/USD showed insignificant growth, developing the corrective movement, which was formed the day before. Currently, the instrument is consolidating at the level of 1.0770, with the possibility of a break-up, updating the local highs since May 24. Activity in the market remains relatively low, as traders are waiting for the May report on the US labor market, which will affect the decision of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on the interest rate. At the moment the probability of the monetary policy tightening at the regulator's meeting on June 14 is 24.0%, while at the beginning of the week it exceeded 40.0%.Data from the U.S. also put additional pressure on the U.S. currency. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in May decreased from 47.1 points to 46.9 points, which was lower than the expected 47.0 points, and the index of new orders declined from 45.7 points to 42.6 points, which was significantly lower than the forecasted 44.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0768, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0725, 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600.USD/CAD: investors note the stable Canadian economyDuring the trading session in Asia, the pair USD/CAD shows a correction at 1.3416. The Canadian currency strongly strengthened the previous day, climbing more than 110.0 points against the U.S. dollar, influenced by two key factors.Firstly, the Canadian economy report had a positive impact: gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.0% in March, leading to a quarterly increase of 0.8% compared to the expected 0.4%. The annual GDP figure thus rose to 2.21% from the previous value of 2.07%, virtually eliminating the risks of a recession in the economy.Resistance levels: 1.3490 and 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3400, ...
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31 EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, ...
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD for Friday, May 12
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD for Friday, May 12 EUR/USD: euro zone consumer prices may continue growingThe EUR/USD trading instrument is slightly strengthening, making up for the sharp decline seen the day before, which resulted in a renewal of the local low of April 11. The single currency in Europe resumed its attempts to hold above the level of 1.0900, but is short of stimulus by the end of the week. Technical factors and market panic caused by the increasing probability of default in the USA, as the negotiation process between the Republicans and the Democrats on the debt ceiling correction is far from being completed.Today analysts expect the release of consumer price statistics in Spain and France. According to the preliminary estimates, the April index calculated according to the EU formula will remain at the same level of 4.1% and 6.9% respectively. In turn, according to the results of a survey conducted in March by the European Central Bank, most consumers expect a continued upward price correction, despite the current reduction in inflationary trends and significant adjustments in the cost of borrowing. Most respondents agreed that the correction could reach 5.0% over the next 12 months, surpassing the February survey result of 4.6% and 2.9% three years later, up from an earlier estimate of 2.4%.Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.AUD/USD: market assesses the probable consequences of the default in the U.S.Currency pair AUD/USD is under the influence of contradictory sentiment, holding in the area of 0.6700. Macroeconomic data bloc from the U.S. and China has strengthened the bears in the asset, which gained advantage amid the global GDP outlook.Investors are focused around the assessment of the announcement of the U.S. default on servicing the foreign public debt amid disagreements between the Democrats and Republicans, which excludes the agreement between the parties on the increase or suspension of the current national debt ceiling. In the U.S., long consultations in the government are expected, which are associated with an increased likelihood of the most negative scenarios, as participants in the debates are more likely to shake up the situation. Amid the uncertainty, market participants also took a look at jobless claims data. For example, weekly volume for May 5 rose to 264, thousand from 242.0 thousand, with estimates rising to 245.0 thousand, and secondary claims for the week to April 28 rose to 1.813 million from 1.801 million, contrary to an expected increase to 1.820 million.Resistance levels: 0.6728, 0.6750, 0.6795, 0.6816.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6641, 0.6590.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency is actively growing upDuring the APAC trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair showed strong bearish dynamics formed earlier and reached 0.6260, developing a decline that has already surpassed the 100.0 pips step from the local peak of February 14.Negative sentiment in the asset increased at the end of the trading week due to weak macroeconomic statistics in New Zealand. Thus, the manufacturing sector business activity for April rose to 49.1 points from 48.1 points, falling short of the analyst community's forecast of 50.7 points. In its turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revised downward its own inflation estimates for the second quarter to 2.79% from 3.30%, giving experts hope that at the end of the next meeting the regulator will keep the interest rate at the same level.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6150 and 0.6100.USD/CAD: global "triangle" pattern holds in the pairThe USD/CAD trading instrument is coming back under the dominance of the American currency and has reached the level of 1.3493.Total Canadian construction approvals for March rose 11.3% to $11.8 billion, driven by a 32.0% increase in non-residential contracts of $5.2 billion, with ten new projects reported, each surpassing the $100.0 million mark. Residential real estate, after strengthening in February, declined by 0.9% or to $6.6 billion in cash equivalents as the number of building licenses issued for residential buildings reached only 21,400 thousand in March, with experts pointing to the low solvency potential of the population.Resistance levels: 1.3550 and 1.3700.Support levels: 1.3360, ...
Forex analytical forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and silver for Thursday, May 11
GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and silver for Thursday, May 11 GBP/USD: the Bank of England will soon announce a decision on monetary policyThe trading instrument is testing the area of 1.2621 being in expectation of the new stimulus for further growth.Investors are waiting for the final statements on the results of the meeting of the Bank of England officials. Experts agree that the interest rate will rise by another 0.25% to the target value of 4.50%. It is likely that the financial authority will reserve the right to tighten the monetary policy in the future in case of expediency. Market participants have no doubt that the financial authorities will reach the target level of 5.00% to overcome the record inflation rate, which is much higher in the growing economies, members of the G7, which slightly reduced the dynamics of the correction for March to 10.1% from 10.4% for the year, and to 0.8% from 1.1% for the month, but still remains far from the designated area of 2.00%. The household sector showed the greatest vulnerability to the rising cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages in the past 40-plus years, as price tags for those items rose to 15.7% in April over the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, the analyst community fears that increased "hawkish" rhetoric at the Bank of England has the potential to cause serious challenges to the national economy.Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2679, 1.2750, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: Swiss branch of Credit Suisse may sellDuring Asian trading the currency pair USD/CHF reached the area of 0.8900.As Reuters reports, the management of UBS Group AG is considering selling its Swiss unit to Credit Suisse AG during the initial IPO attempt as soon as the deal and takeover are completed, but details have not been disclosed. UBS Group AG CEO Sergio Hermotti notes that the merger process is expected to be completed by the end of May 2023, then we can talk about further decisions on business strategy in the company. On the eve of confirmed rumors that the CEO of the absorbed institution Ulrich Körner will be appointed to the board of the formed company, which will remain in charge of monitoring the total volume of investments exceeding the mark of 5.0 trillion dollars, and will be responsible for the integration and orientation of strategy on clients.Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8930, 0.8960, 0.9000.Support levels: 0.8858, 0.8819, 0.8800, 0.8756.USD/CAD: the pair is developing a sideways price dynamicsThe trading instrument USD/CAD is developing a slight strengthening, recovering the previously lost positions and testing the level of 1.3380, expecting new incentives for growth.Negative factors for the USD were the US consumer inflation data for April which reflected the slowdown in the annual rate to 4.9% from 5.0%, while analysts were expecting the zero trend. The monthly rate accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1% and the core, which excludes food and energy, grew by 0.4% MoM to 5.5% MoM from 5.6% MoM. The macroeconomic block of statistics confirms comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that financial authorities are close to completing a cyclical adjustment of monetary parameters, given the positive economic developments. In turn, rising price tags are still a long way from the regulator's targets, and declines are occurring at a slower pace than economists have recorded by the end of 2022.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.Silver pricesThe price of the precious metal is moving in the local sideways channel, testing the level of 24.90.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, open transactions in the asset resumed correction to 32,000 from the previous 30,600 last week, and if we consider more local statistics, namely, the reporting of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the upward trend resumed since May 7, because futures and options positions strengthened to 91,686. From the previous 42,737 thousand, the analytical community noted the doubling of demand amid continued active opening of positions on the instrument and in the expectation that the upward correction in the metal will soon intensify amid further developments in the U.S. financial environment. At the time of the Silicon Valley Bank liquidation, DJSRBK regional bank indexes were down by only 15.0%, with today's value exceeding -43.0%. When it became clear to everyone that First Republic Bank was shutting down next, PacWest Bancorp took the lead of the collapse, with its share price losing 75.0% immediately, leaving the credit institutions with uncertainty and a high probability of further bankruptcies.Resistance levels: 26.00, 27.10.Support levels: 24.60, ...
Forex analytical forecast for NZDUSD, USDCAD, gold and oil for today, April 17
USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for NZDUSD, USDCAD, gold and oil for today, April 17 NZDUSD: сontradictory moods prevail in the pairThe pair NZDUSD shows a mixed trend staying in the area of 0.6200. The market is still in low activity, compensating for Friday's sharp decline on April 14, when traders were studying the U.S. macroeconomic statistics.For instance, industrial activity for March strengthened to 0.4% from 0.2% and the engaged asset ratio was 79.8% from last week's 79.5%, contrary to market expectations for a slowdown to 79.0%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence from the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April increased to 63.5 points from 62.0 points. However, the market also noted a sharp decline in retail sales, as the March reading was down 1.0%, continuing the previous correction of 0.2% for February, against analysts' estimates of only -0.4%, and auto demand was down 0.8%, with a zero swing for the prior period contrary to estimates of -0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6166, 0.6138, 0.6100.USDCAD: Canada's manufacturing sector has declinedStabilization in the value of the U.S. dollar allowed the currency pair USDCAD to test 1.3487.The Canadian currency was under the pressure since last Friday due to the manufacturing sales data for February, as the value decreased by 3.6% against the previous month to 71.5 billion CAD against a 4.5% strengthening of the previous month. All twelve industries were negative, led by the coal and oil sectors, which lost 14.9%, primary metals processing, down 4.2%, and automobile manufacturing, down 12.3%. The indicator continues to be negatively impacted by corrective declines in selling prices and demand volume due to high national inflation which could trigger further declines in the monthly value.Resistance levels: 1.3420 and 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3110.Gold price analyticsThe precious metal is quoted up, having earlier undergone a downward correction last Friday, April 14. The asset is set to cross the psychological threshold at 2000.00 again, being under pressure on market expectations for tighter monetary parameters from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the future.Friday's data from the USA has aggravated such investor sentiment, that is why more than 80.0% of experts bet on the interest rate increase after the summit of the agency announced for May 2-3. The retail sales in the United States were weak, because in March the value fell by 1.0%, having earlier decreased by 0.2%, having been revised down from -0.4%, while analysts expected the fall by only 0.4%. Investors also expect the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of England to continue their cyclical key rate increases as well, but each regulator will be guided by published macroeconomic statistics for the regions. So, tomorrow, on April 18, the release of the Canadian consumer inflation data for March is announced. According to the preliminary market estimates the consumer price index will decrease to 4.3% from 5.2% and the base value of the Central Bank of Canada to 4.2% from 4.7%.Resistance levels: 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00, 2085.00.Support levels: 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00, 1943.80.Crude Oil market overviewDuring the morning session, the price of the "black gold" of the benchmark Brent grade is under the influence of contradictory factors, holding at 86.00. By the end of the previous week the asset showed a moderate decline, but the potential of the "bulls" is preserved.Meanwhile, according to the survey statistics, Russia has renewed a new peak of 3.5 million barrels of oil transported by sea per day, surpassing the level recorded before the military invasion of Ukraine and further approval of economic restrictions by Western countries. Thus, Russian exports are now focused on the development of new markets, primarily China and India, whose share is up to 90.0%, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, to 8.0% supplied to Europe. On the eve of Russia did not exceed the figure of 25.0% of oil imports to China, but now the figure has strengthened to 36.0%, while India purchased only 1.0% of the fuel to the current 51.0% supplied by Russia of the total supply. In turn, IEA experts noted the collapse of Russian revenues from hydrocarbon sales by 43.0% in the annual figure to 12.7 billion in March.Resistance levels: 86.00, 87.00, 88.79, 91.00.Support levels: 84.50, 83.50, 82.64, ...
Forex pair USD/CAD: it is safer to sell the pair
USD/CAD, currency, Forex pair USD/CAD: it is safer to sell the pair USD/CAD trade idea on April 13, 2023The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen, and on Thursday the pair USD/CAD tries to break through the support of 1.34 for further decrease.The market is discussing the results of the Bank of Canada meeting held the day before. The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.5%, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. However, the statement by the Central Bank that if necessary, the regulator will continue the cycle of raising rates in order to drive inflation to the 2% mark was met as "hawkish".At the same time, the Bank of Canada will aim to keep rates at 4.5% for the rest of the year to offset recessionary risks.In addition to the prospect of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, the "Loonie" is supported by the weakening U.S. dollar. Yesterday the report on inflation in the United States was released, which showed a noticeable decline in the consumer price index. The value declined from 6.0% to 5.0%, better than the forecast of 5.2%. At the same time core inflation rose from 5.5% to 5.6%. Falling inflationary pressures suggest the end of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle, which deprives the USD of support.We continue to hold USD/CAD sales and plan to place a new forex order.Sell-limit 1.3450 take-profit 1/3200 stop-loss ...
Forex analytical forecasts for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDJPY for Monday, April 10
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex analytical forecasts for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDJPY for Monday, April 10 EURUSD: U.S. Labor Market Data ReleasedInvestors are showing lower activity because of the Easter holiday and the EURUSD is holding steady at 1.0898.The U.S. dollar is traded up, but a mixed macroeconomic backdrop has limited the potential, as the pair is testing the 101.800 level of the USD Index. Thus, the economically active part of the population went up from 62.5% to 62.6%, while the unemployment rate went up from 3.6% to 3.5%. Recall that this value for April 2020 as the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic put pressure on the economy rose to 14.8% from 4.4% in March, showing a peak1940, but in May the index moved to an active decline. Meanwhile, the nonfarm payrolls sector continues to signal a slowdown, as the March value updated to 236.0k from February's 326.0k, and the private nonfarm payroll value increased by 189.0k, down from the previous 266.0k.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0630.GBPUSD: EU and UK tourism sector under pressureGBPUSD is showing multidirectional dynamics, aiming to test the level of 1.2400. The pound has been dominated by downward sentiment since Wednesday of the previous week, when the asset retreated from its record high for June. "The American" continues to remain under moderate pressure.According to a report of the British edition The Guardian, after a detailed analysis of the data analysts noted a rapid decline in tourist traffic on the background of the country's withdrawal from the European alliance, because those wishing to visit the Kingdom requires the appropriate package of documents, while previously only an identity card was required. Thus, in January and February 2019, the number of passenger traffic carried by the service Le Shuttle reached 314.0 thousand, compared to the same period in 2023, only slightly exceeding 251.0 thousand. At the same time, bookings from tourists from Germany and France, according to statistics from Experience Oxfordshire, collapsed by 100.0% to the figure before the pandemic. Analysts say the United Kingdom left the top 10 countries popular with tourists from France and Germany.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550 and 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2283, 1.2236.USDCAD: the pair is testing the area at 1.3500During the Asian trading session, USDCAD is demonstrating sideways momentum, trying to hold above the psychological threshold of 1.3500.The day before the Canadian reports came out with optimistic statistics, as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% against the experts' expectations of correction to 5.1%, while the number of working population increased by 34.7 thousand, The average hourly earnings rate declined to 5.2% from 5.4%, and business activity from Ivey rose to 58.2 points from 51.6 points, beating experts' expectations of 56.1 points.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700.Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350.USDJPY: the IMF has estimated the prospects of the Japanese economy in the current yearThe currency pair USDJPY is developing a moderate strengthening, having gained correction momentum from the previous week. The trading asset reached 132.70, continuing gains due to technical factors and also due to March reports from the U.S. labor market at the end of last week.Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund expects a positive 1.3% economic growth in Japan in 2023 due to higher consumer activity and ample financial savings by the public since the pandemic, contrary to high consumer inflation. Meanwhile, economists attribute the rapid growth of the consumer inflation index to external causes, such as the effects of the pandemic, the cost of commodities and Russia's war against Ukraine.Resistance levels: 133.00, 133.74, 134.54, 135.57.Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.00, ...
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD for Wednesday, April 5
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD for Wednesday, April 5 EURUSD: bulls retain an advantage in the pairEURUSD is developing a moderate strengthening, testing the level of 1.0950. The upward dynamic has reduced the potential, but the single currency continues to be near the local maximum of February 2.Technical factors were supporting the quotes, which was only strengthened by the macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone, giving the market participants hope that the prolonged recession in the region will not be declared. Earlier in FRG the statistics for February foreign trade figures had been released showing that exports had accelerated to 4.0% from 2.5% against the analysts' estimate of 1.4%, imports dynamics added 4.6% to the previous -1.4% while the growth forecast was 1.3%. The trade balance maintained its previous surplus of 16.0 billion euros, missing expectations of a strengthening to 17.0 billion euros. Manufacturers reported a 0.5% decline in the price index for February, having previously lost 2.8%, against experts' expectations of a 0.3% decline, while in the annual figure the slowdown was 13.2% from the previous 15.1%, with a forecast of 13.5%.Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.USDJPY: Japan may have power shortagesThe USDJPY continues to be under pressure holding at 131.70. "Bears" have kept a strong advantage in the instrument since the beginning of the week, allowing the "American" to retreat from the local high of March 16. The key factor for the downtrend is the expectation of investors that the Fed has exhausted the current interest rate correction cycle. Most analysts agree that the May meeting of the regulator will end with the indicators without another increase, followed by one or two corrections of 0.25%.Meanwhile, officials in Tokyo have signaled a high likelihood of power shortages as early as this coming summer, citing a plan by energy service companies. Power engineers are making capacity reserves in compliance with the coefficient to consumption above 3.0%, but if some thermal power plants stop working, the figure will collapse sharply. Experts report that the capital's reserve capacity could adjust to 3.9% by the end of August, and to 4.6% for January 2024.Resistance levels: 132.00, 133.00, 134.00, 134.54.Support levels: 131.00, 130.00, 129.62, 128.62.USDCAD: US Dollar is moving in correctionDuring the APAC trading session USDCAD is showing moderate strengthening at 1.3453, developing the "bulls" advantage of the day before, where the pair moved away from the local low of February 16.The downward trend is being maintained amid the market estimations about the soon closing of the program on tightening of the monetary parameters by the US Federal Reserve System, after which the US currency will lose its main incentive to strengthen its quotations against all competitors in the world currency basket. Moreover, investors are worried about the prospects for the financial sector, given the events since the spring, where the national banking sector was shaken by the news about the liquidation of several large credit institutions, after which the risks of a large-scale crisis continue to exist.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.GBPUSD: US jobs market sees a drop in vacanciesThe U.S. dollar continues to decline, allowing the GBPUSD pair to correct around 1.2486.The release of the British Service Business Sentiment Index for March is scheduled for today, April 5. Experts expect the index to show zero growth at 52.8 points. According to estimates, the composite value will reach 52.2 points, the same as last month. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector which was released the day before might see a decline from 49.3 points to 47.9 points which might put the national economy under additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2590 and 1.2830.Support levels: 1.2420, ...
Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
USD/CAD: forex online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & features
USD/CAD, currency, USD/CAD: forex online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & features The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...
"20 points a day": a simple, but effective strategy for Forex trading
USD/CAD, currency, \ Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month.  In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit.  To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements.  Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...
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