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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, silver and oil for Thursday, July 18, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, silver and oil for Thursday, July 18, 2024 EUR/USD: the results of the ECB monetary meeting will be announced todayIn the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate stabilized at 1.0928, while investors refrain from active trading, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for 14:15 GMT+2.Analysts assume that the ECB will continue its policy of lowering interest rates, confirming this with a possible adjustment in September, followed by a regular reduction in rates every quarter. ECB President Christine Lagarde regularly focuses on the importance of taking into account the macroeconomic situation in making key decisions. So, in June, there was an upward revision of inflation expectations: it is assumed that in 2024 inflation will be 2.5%, and in 2025 it will be 2.2%, with basic indicators of 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. In the latest report for June, inflation remained at 0.2% on a monthly basis and decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% on an annual basis. Core inflation registered 0.4% monthly growth, which is higher than the forecast of 0.3%, and the level of 2.9% in annual terms. Despite the growing price pressures in the services sector, ECB representatives may increase caution in adjusting monetary policy. Surveys indicate a slowdown in wage growth to less than 4% by the end of the year, which, according to the regulator, will help achieve the inflation target of 2% in the first half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0945, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0803, 1.0742, 1.0645.USD/CAD: inflation data did not strengthen the position of the Canadian dollarDuring the current trading session, the USD/CAD pair demonstrates a downward correction, reaching the level of 1.3678 against the background of a noticeable weakening of the US dollar.Not being supported by inflation data, the Canadian currency showed moderate reactive growth. Information on the decline in the consumer price index in Canada turned out to be better than expected, but did not reach a level capable of influencing monetary policy. In June, the index decreased by 0.1% monthly and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum. The basic indicator, excluding food and energy, increased slightly from 1.8% to 1.9% in monthly and annual terms. This dynamics led to an overall decrease in the inflation index from 2.4% to 2.3%, without becoming a key factor for changing the key rate of the Bank of Canada, which continues to carefully analyze the situation in the labor and real estate markets.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3790.Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3590.Silver market analysisThe price of silver is steadily rising, reaching the 30.40 mark, against the background of moderate growth in the market.Silver retains some backwardness from gold, which continues to update highs, due to relatively weak demand on industrial exchanges. In conditions of political instability, when investors have limited resources of available funds, preference is given to more reliable assets. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows that the current trading volume of silver futures is 72.3 thousand lots, whereas in June this figure was in the range of 130.0–140.0 thousand lots. A recent report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also reflects a slowdown in dynamics: over the week, the volume of purchases from manufacturers increased by only 0.133 thousand, and sales increased by 3.125 thousand, indicating potentially low volatility of silver in the near future.Resistance levels: 30.76, 32.14.Support levels: 30.00, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI crude oil is held at $81.86 per barrel, influenced by China's economic statistics.China's GDP increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with growth of 5.3% in the previous quarter and a projected 5.1%. The decline in retail sales in June from 3.7% to 2.0% — below the expected 3.3% — raises concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's second largest economy and falling demand for oil from the leading importer. According to the data, imports of crude oil in China decreased both monthly and annually, which confirms the assumption that demand has reached a peak amid the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in the country. The news that the US and the EU are imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is heightening trade tensions.Nevertheless, statistics on oil reserves provide some support for prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a decrease in reserves from 1.923 million barrels to 4.440 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted a decrease in reserves by 4.870 million barrels from the previous 3.443 million barrels, exceeding the forecast reduction of 0.900 million barrels.Support levels: 80.00, 76.80.Resistance levels: 82.40, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024 EUR/USD: a drop in the consumer price index in the EU has been recordedThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, with the current quote at 1.0895. The euro is expected to strengthen this week thanks to encouraging economic data.In particular, in France, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in June compared to the previous month, slowing annual growth from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the harmonized index, which meets EU standards, decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In Spain, the indicator also adjusted, showing monthly growth of 0.4% and a decrease in annual inflation from 3.6% to 3.4%. The decrease in inflation in Germany confirms the slowdown in the overall inflation rate in the region, which will allow officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) to avoid a rush to adjust monetary policy and maintain current interest rates for the near future.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a weakening, with quotes at 103.80 on the USDX index. Recently, the University of Michigan reported a decrease in the consumer expectations index from 69.6 to 67.2 points and a deterioration in the consumer sentiment index from 68.2 to 66.0 points, while the indicator of current conditions also decreased from 65.9 to 64.1 points. This trend points to consumer expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0760.GBP/USD: pound is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.2972 in a monthOver the past month, the GBP/USD pair has seen strengthening, maintaining at around 1.2972.Unlike the US Federal Reserve System, where the prospects for rate cuts are growing, the Bank of England shows a tendency to stabilize the cost of borrowing, which contributes to the strengthening of the pound. UK GDP growth in monthly terms amounted to 0.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.2%, and reached 1.4% year-on-year, ahead of forecasts at 1.2%. This supports the risks of renewed acceleration of inflation, forcing Bank of England officials to adhere to a cautious policy. At the moment, only a few board members, including Swati Dhingra, are in favor of stepping up action, while most, including Catherine Mann and Hugh Pill, are not yet ready to adjust policy. Consequently, analysts estimate the probability of a change in interest rates in August as unlikely so far, at the level of 50%.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2573, 1.2451.NZD/USD: New Zealand assessed the consequences of tight monetary policyDuring Asian trading, the NZD/USD pair fluctuates in the range of 0.6140–0.6075, approaching its lower limit. The market is closely monitoring the actions of the New Zealand monetary authorities in anticipation of new incentives for movement.Last week brought no changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have remained at 5.50% since May 2023 — for the eighth time in a row. However, due to tight monetary policy, the inflation rate has been reduced, and it is expected that by the end of the year they will return to the target range from 1.0% to 3.0%. The easing of tension in the labor market indicates a more cautious approach by companies to hiring and an increase in the supply of labor. Also in June, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.2 to 41.1 points, and retail sales by electronic cards improved from -1.2% to -0.6% monthly and from -1.6% to -4.9% per annum. New data on inflation and the state of the labor market are expected in the coming weeks, which will have a significant impact on monetary decisions. In particular, this Friday at 00:45 GMT+2, the market will assess the quarterly dynamics of the consumer price index: a decrease from 0.6% to 4.0% per annum is expected, which may affect the RBNZ's decision to cut rates in August and weaken the New Zealand dollar. Analysts assume that the first rate cut of 25 basis points will occur in October, and the second is likely in November.Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6225, 0.6286.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6010, 0.5981.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation data for June will be published soonThe USD/CAD pair is approaching the level of 1.3657, waiting for news from Canada that may affect the exchange rate.Tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+2, June inflation figures are expected, which will become key for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. Analysts foresee a decrease in annual inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the monthly index may accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% in a month, and annual inflation from 0.6%, which may contribute to a transition to a more lenient policy. Such changes will reduce the cost of debt servicing, stimulating consumer and investment spending, which will contribute to economic recovery. Statistics on new homes launched in June will also be published, with a projected decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may affect the value of the Canadian dollar.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3480.Resistance levels: 1.3680, ...
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CAD for today, July 15, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CAD for today, July 15, 2024 USD/CAD is testing the 1.3657 level to break down before the release of important macroeconomic data from Canada.Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the June inflation report will be published, which will play a key role in the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions. The annual consumer price index is expected to decrease from 2.9% to 2.6%, and the monthly indicator will accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is projected to decrease from 1.8% to 1.6% on a monthly basis and from 0.6% to 0.4% on an annual basis. This may allow the Bank of Canada to move to a more lenient policy, which will support the economic recovery by lowering interest rates, stimulating consumer spending and investment. On the same day, data on the volume of new home construction will be published, the indicator of which is likely to decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may put pressure on the Canadian dollar.Analysts believe that the Bank of Canada will act more decisively than the US Federal Reserve on the issue of lowering rates. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September, with two adjustments before the end of the year, while the Canadian regulator will reach the level of 3.00% by the end of next year, while in the United States only by the beginning of 2026.On the daily chart, technical indicators give preference to sales. The Alligator indicator turns the moving averages down. Awesome oscillator forms descending bars in a negative rangeShort positions can be opened with a confident breakdown down to the 1.3600 level with a target of 1.3480. We will place the stop loss at 1.3680.Purchases will be relevant when the 1.3680 level breaks up. The target is -1.3780. We will make a stop loss of ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024 EUR/USD: euro stabilizes at its local peaksThe EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading trends, being near the 1.0870 mark. On the previous day, the euro actively increased in value, updating the maximum values since June 7, but could not hold on to new heights, losing some of the acquired positions by the end of the day. By Friday morning, market activity had significantly decreased.Meanwhile, the latest data from Germany showed that the consumer price index in June remained at the level of 0.1% monthly increase and 2.2% annual growth, confirming the possibility of further interest rate adjustments by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, the results of a Reuters survey of leading economists indicate that the ECB may cut rates twice this year — in September and December. However, if inflation, especially in the services sector, stabilizes above the target level, the central bank may limit itself to one adjustment of its policy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: pound is growing on the back of good UK GDP dataDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair stabilizes around the level of 1.2915, while not staying at the recently updated annual highs. This happened after the publication of inflation data, which reinforced expectations of a near-term reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. The consumer price index in June slowed to 3.0% per annum from 3.3%, falling short of the projected 3.1%, and the monthly dynamics decreased by 0.1% after stabilization in the previous month. Core inflation also declined, which, together with the latest labor market report indicating a downward revision in the number of jobs created in May, disappointed investors. In addition, the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, emphasized the need to assess the economic situation as a whole, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut in September. As a result, the markets expect two rate adjustments in 2024 of 25 basis points each.On the other hand, recent statistics from the UK showed GDP growth of 0.4% in May after stagnating in April, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The annual increase in industrial production was 0.4%, despite the previous fall of 0.7%, with a projected increase of 0.6%. The monthly figure was also in line with forecasts, accelerating by 0.2% after a 0.9% decline. Economic growth in the UK supports the risks of accelerating inflation and reduces the likelihood of an early reduction in the cost of borrowing by the Bank of England, especially given hints from members of its board about a possible continuation of current rates, including recent comments by Bank representative Catherine Mann and chief economist Hugh Pill about continued inflationary pressures, especially in the service sector, and significant wage growth, which makes a correction monetary policy is unlikely in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817, 1.2776.USD/CHF: annual inflation in the United States decreased to 3.0%The USD/CHF pair is at 0.8958, demonstrating a corrective decline against the background of the weakness of the US dollar and the stability of the Swiss franc caused by the lack of new macroeconomic data.Investors are analyzing the latest conversations between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and the Swiss head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin. During the meeting, it was decided to deepen the free trade agreement, which became a key point in the context of trade restrictions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These restrictions have made it more difficult to export Swiss goods, and a new agreement to improve the terms of trade could significantly support the Swiss economy, given that China ranks third among its trading partners. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), last year's exports to China amounted to 40.6 billion francs, while imports amounted to 18.4 billion francs. The expansion of the trade agreement is expected to increase these volumes by at least 30%.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8840.USD/CAD: lower range heralds new lowsThe USD/CAD pair shows a slight decrease against the Canadian dollar, being at the level of 1.3620 in anticipation of new factors that could affect the exchange rate.Today, at 16:00 GMT+2, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States is expected to be published, projected at 68.5 points for July, which is slightly higher than the previous value of 68.2 points. Earlier at 14:30, investors will pay attention to data on production inflation for June, the expected growth of which will be from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and from -0.2% to 0.1% monthly, while the basic producer price index excluding food and energy should rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index showed a slowdown from 3.3% to 3.0% per annum, which was below expectations of 3.1%, and the monthly change was 0.1% after stability in the previous month, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 0.1%. The base rate also decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% monthly and from 3.4% to 3.3% per annum. Given the declining dynamics of the labor market, the US Federal Reserve may reconsider its policy towards easing at the September meeting. In particular, recent data showed a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 239.0 thousand to 222.0 thousand, and repeated applications — from 1,856 million to 1,852 million, which is also lower than the expected 1,860 million.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3588, 1.3550, ...

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Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
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