EUR/USD: November inflation in Germany decreased by -0.2%The EUR/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding in the area of 1.0557. The main driver is the weakening of the US dollar, and market participants are preparing for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), which additionally supports the single currency.According to the data, in November, the consumer price index in Germany showed a decrease from 0.4% to -0.2% on a monthly basis, which led to an increase in the value from 2.0% to 2.2% year-on-year, as expected by experts. The harmonized indicator according to EU standards was adjusted from 0.4% to -0.7%, maintaining the annual mark at 2.4%. The ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday at 15:15 (GMT+2), may make additional changes: investors expect a rate cut from 3.40% to 3.15%.The neutral behavior of the dollar, which remains near the 106.00 mark in the USDX index, has an additional impact on the dynamics of the pair. Markets are waiting for tomorrow's data on inflation in the United States, which will form the basis for further decisions by the Fed at its meeting on December 18. According to forecasts, the consumer price index will grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis and from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis, while the base indicator will remain at 3.3%. These data may keep pressure on the regulator in favor of further easing of monetary policy, which fuels expectations for a rate cut of -25 basis points.Support levels: 1.0510, 1.0340.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0710.GBP/USD: the market expects the Bank of England rate to remain at 4.75%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate near the 1.2745 level, while trading volume remains low, as market participants assess the impact of the November employment report in the United States on the further dynamics of the asset.Important macroeconomic statistics for October will be published in the UK on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2). The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to show an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier. At the same time, experts predict an improvement in the situation in the industrial sector: output is likely to grow by 0.3% compared with a 0.5% drop in September, and in annual terms the indicator will increase by 0.2% against the previous decline of 1.8%.Last week, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, in an interview with The Financial Times, announced four possible interest rate cuts of 25 basis points if inflation continues to show a slowing trend. According to him, the decrease in price pressure is faster than the regulator's forecasts, but the October inflation statistics turned out to be higher than expected. The consumer price index rose from 1.7% to 2.3% in annual terms, with a forecast of 2.2%, and rose from 0.0% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. Core inflation has also changed: the annual rate accelerated from 3.2% to 3.3%, and the monthly rate increased from 0.1% to 0.4%. Despite this, the market is almost certain that at the meeting on December 19, the regulator will keep the current interest rate at 4.75%.Resistance levels: 1.2776, 1.2817, 1.2860, 1.2900.Support levels: 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600.USD/CHF: bearish dynamics intensifies against the background of an expanding rangeDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 0.8775 mark. Market participants are waiting for key events that can set the further direction of the asset's movement.On Thursday at 10:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to the level of 0.75%. Since the beginning of the year, the regulator has already adjusted the indicator three times, bringing it to 1.0%, but the head of the SNB, Martin Schlegel, allowed the possibility of a more significant decrease, including a transition to negative values, in order to weaken demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency.Meanwhile, the results of a survey conducted by Ernst & Young Global Ltd. Together with the Swiss Retail Federation, they showed that households on average plan to spend about 282 francs on Christmas shopping — similar to last year's values. However, more than half of the 753 respondents admitted that they would limit holiday spending due to rising prices for goods and services.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8865, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700.USD/CAD: the growth momentum of the US currency remains strongThe USD/CAD pair is showing steady strengthening, developing the bullish trend formed last week. Current trading is taking place around 1.4180, and the instrument is aiming for an upward breakout, updating the highs recorded in April 2020.The growth of the US dollar is supported by the strong indicators of the US labor market for November, published on Friday. The country's economy added 227.0 thousand jobs outside the agricultural sector, significantly exceeding the previous result of 36.0 thousand and analysts' expectations of 200.0 thousand. The average hourly wage remained at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.0% on an annual basis, despite the projected decline. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. These data reinforced expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 17-18. At the moment, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at more than 80.0%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.The key factor that can influence further dynamics will be the November statistics on inflation in the United States, scheduled for publication tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis, and will grow from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis. The base values are likely to be fixed at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.3% on an annual basis, which may become an additional driver of the dollar's strengthening.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, ...
EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a boost from the 1.0460 levelDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.12%, reaching 1.0515, continuing to develop positive dynamics after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.15%.ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the eurozone economy is facing a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of continuing high inflation. She also said that the regulator's next steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Investors' attention was focused on the data on industrial production in the eurozone published on Friday: the index for October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the negative trend. In addition, Germany presented weak statistics on foreign trade. Exports decreased by 2.8%, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of -2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.1% with an expected -0.6%. Nevertheless, the trade surplus increased to 13.4 billion euros. These data reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the EU's largest economy, which is likely to maintain the ECB's dovish position in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0720, 1.0825.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0290.USD/CHF: the pair is testing the resistance of 0.8920 against the background of the NBSH decisionThe USD/CHF pair is holding at 0.8908, trying to overcome the resistance of 0.8920 after the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once to 0.50%. Most analysts' forecasts suggested a more modest decrease of 25 basis points.The head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, explained that the slowdown in inflation in November turned out to be higher than experts' expectations, which makes it possible to accelerate the achievement of the regulator's monetary goals. At the same time, the weakening of business activity recorded in recent months required a more significant reduction in the cost of borrowing to stimulate the economy. The regulator also stressed its readiness to carry out currency interventions depending on the market situation, noting that a return to negative rates in the near future is unlikely. Against the background of these statements, the Swiss franc weakened, which supported the growth of the USD/CHF pair. This dynamic is developing within the framework of an uptrend that began back in October, and indicates a possible continuation of the strengthening of the US currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/CAD: quotes have stabilized at peak valuesDuring morning trading, the USD/CAD pair remains near the 1.4220 mark, not far from the April 2020 highs reached at the end of last week. The market remains low in activity, as traders expect the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on December 17-18. Most of the participants are confident that the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum, and will also provide comments on the further strategy.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector from S&P Global will be announced. Analysts predict that the values will remain at the same level: 49.7 points and 56.1 points, respectively. In addition, at 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tifa Macklem, is scheduled to speak. Tomorrow, the market's attention will focus on November inflation data in Canada: according to forecasts, the monthly change in the consumer price index will be 0.0% against the previous value of 0.4%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. Core inflation is likely to remain at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.AUD/USD: the decline in business activity in Australia undermines the growth of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is moving in a sideways trend near the 0.6375 level, continuing to show negative dynamics. The slowdown in activity against the background of limited trading in the US dollar could not significantly change the overall picture of the market.The national currency remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at 4.35%. The December data reflected a decline in business activity: the index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points, remaining in negative territory for the tenth month in a row, and the indicator in the service sector decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 points. The positive dynamics of the labor market in November somewhat smoothed out the overall negative: employment increased by 35.6 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. However, the weak manufacturing sector and limited support from fundamental factors make it difficult for the Australian dollar to rise. The probability of a strengthening of the national currency remains minimal, as the RBA maintains its current course to keep inflation down, avoiding radical changes in monetary policy.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6240.Resistance levels: 0.6400, ...
USD/CAD analysis on December 16, 2024In Monday morning trading, USD/CAD stabilizes around 1.4220, which corresponds to the record highs of April 2020, updated at the end of last week. There is low volatility of currency pairs in the market, as traders prefer to refrain from transactions in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on December 17-18. Most market participants are confident in reducing the rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum and are closely monitoring possible comments from the regulator on further steps.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global is expected to publish business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors for December. It is assumed that the values will remain close to the previous indicators — 49.7 points for industry and 56.1 points for services. At 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, will speak, and tomorrow investors will study inflation data in Canada for November. It is expected that the monthly dynamics of consumer prices will slow down to 0.0%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. The base index is expected to maintain values of 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.USD/CAD Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator continues to expand, which indicates support for the uptrend. The MACD indicator shows a steady buy signal, as the histogram is above the signal line. Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone and indicates the probability of a downward correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- Buy: after the breakdown of the 1.4250 level, up with a target of 1.4350. The stop loss is 1.4200.- Sale: after the breakdown of the 1.4200 level down with a target of 1.4100. The stop loss is ...
USD/CADanalysis on December 10, 2024On Tuesday, USD/CAD continues to strengthen, developing the upward momentum formed at the end of last week. The pair is currently trading near the 1.4180 mark, trying to gain a foothold above this resistance, updating the maximum of April 2020.The positive report on the US labor market for November contributed to the growth of the US dollar. The US economy created 227 thousand new jobs, which significantly exceeded expectations (200 thousand) and the previous result (36 thousand). The average hourly wage growth remained at 0.4% monthly and 4.0% annual, despite forecasts of a slowdown. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. These data strengthened the market's confidence that the Fed could lower the interest rate by 25 bps at its meeting on December 17-18. The probability of this event, according to the CME Group, is estimated at 80%. However, the market is waiting for the publication of inflation data in the United States, which will be released tomorrow. The consumer price index is expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year, which may support the dollar and stimulate further growth in quotations.Canadian employment data for November turned out to be contradictory. Despite the increase in the number of jobs (50.5 thousand, which is twice as high as expected), the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% against the forecast of 6.6%. In addition, average wages slowed to 3.9% (previously 4.9%), which reinforces expectations of a decrease in inflation. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will make a decision on the rate, and analysts predict its reduction by 50 bps to 3.25%.USD/CAD Technical analysis for today- The Bollinger indicator shows steady growth, indicating an expansion of the range.- MACD maintains a steady buy signal.- Stochastic is moving up, but is approaching the overbought zone, which increases the risks of correction.Trading recommendations- long positions when the key resistance of 1.4200 breaks up with a target of 1.4300. The stop loss level is 1.4145.- short positions with a rebound from 1.4200 down and a breakdown of the 1.4145 level with a target of 1.4050. The stop loss level is ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
