USD/CHF: the pair is trading near the minimum valuesDuring the morning session, the USD/CHF pair is showing recovery after a sharp drop the day before, testing the 0.9075 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is trying to move away from the lows recorded on January 7.The increased volatility in the market is due to the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his first statements, he confirmed his intention to fulfill a number of election promises, including measures to combat illegal immigration, reduce taxes and protect the interests of national producers. Trump also noted the possibility of imposing high import duties. It was previously announced that tariffs on imports of goods would increase by 10-20%, and for products from China — up to 100%. However, analysts assume that the adjustment will only apply to strategically important goods in order to minimize the risks of inflation and maintain a dovish monetary policy.Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum in Davos has started in Switzerland, where world leaders are discussing the prospects for economic recovery, the introduction of advanced technologies and strengthening social and financial stability. Particular attention is being paid to monetary policy issues, especially in the context of a possible slowdown in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025.Resistance levels: 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9153.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8957, 0.8929.AUD/USD: Australian employment sector registers growthThe AUD/USD pair is correcting within the framework of the uptrend, trading near the level of 0.6247. The weakening of the US dollar supports the instrument, while the position of the Australian currency remains stable, despite the publication of data on the labor market.According to a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in December, the unemployment rate remained at 4.0%, and the number of unemployed decreased by 4.0 thousand, reaching 604.9 thousand. The employment rate increased by 31.0 thousand, amounting to 14.573 million, which is 2.8% higher than in the same period of 2023. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4%, but full-time employment decreased by 23.7 thousand to 10.037 million, while part-time employment increased by 80.0 thousand, reaching 4.546 million. The total number of hours worked per month increased by 0.2% or 4.0 million. Despite the high interest rates, the Australian labor market is showing a gradual recovery and stable dynamics.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6210, 0.6080.NZD/USD: December retail statistics supported the NZD rateThe NZD/USD pair is showing a correction near the 0.5654 mark, retreating from the annual low of 0.5540. The weakening of the US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand support the New Zealand currency.According to the data, in December, sales of electronic cards increased by 2.0% or 130 million New Zealand dollars. In the main retail sectors, growth was 1.8% or 103 million New Zealand dollars. The largest increases were in the categories of fuel (+3.8% or 19 million New Zealand dollars), durable goods (+3.7% or 57 million), clothing and footwear (+3.1% or 10 million), consumables (+1.4% or 36 million) and hospitality (+1.0% or 12 million). At the same time, the most noticeable decrease was recorded in the segment of motor vehicles (-1.3% or -2.4 million New Zealand dollars).Resistance levels: 0.5700, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5620, 0.5540.USD/CAD: Trump launches service to regulate duties and revenuesThe US dollar showed steady growth against the Canadian currency during the morning session on January 21, partially recovering from a sharp decline the day before. The USD/CAD pair is testing the 1.4420 mark, while during the day it managed to update the highs recorded in March 2020. Increased volatility in the market is associated with the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his speech, the politician made a number of statements about key areas of domestic and foreign policy. Although he refrained from immediately imposing large-scale import duties, Trump announced the creation of a new External Revenue Service that will work out tariff changes in detail. The administration is likely to focus on targeted increases in duties, for example, on imports of electric vehicles, which are considered critically important.At the same time, Canadian companies are cautiously optimistic, expecting an increase in demand for products due to lower borrowing costs. However, Donald Trump's plans to increase import duties are causing concern among the management of enterprises. The indicator of business prospects in economic conditions rose to -1.18 points, which is the best result in the last five quarters, although it is still below the average level. According to a December online survey by the Bank of Canada, only 15% of companies forecast a recession next year, down from 16% in the third quarter. At the same time, 40% of respondents expressed concern about the impact of the US foreign policy strategy, which highlights the high degree of uncertainty in relations between the two countries.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, ...
In Friday morning trading, USD/CAD shows a moderate decline, regaining some of yesterday's strengthening. The quotes have gone down to 1.4335 and are testing the level for a downward breakout. Market participants are focused on the upcoming macroeconomic statistics releases from the United States.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the S&P Global business activity indices for January. A moderate correction from 49.4 to 49.6 points is expected in the manufacturing sector, while a decrease from 56.8 to 56.5 points is expected in the services sector. These data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the US dollar. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be published at 17:00 (GMT+2). The forecast is 73.2 points.The impact of monetary policyTraders' main focus is on the actions of Central Banks. Next Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). The US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will announce the decision on the interest rate. Most market participants do not expect changes in the monetary policy rate, but the regulator's comments may set the tone for the dollar.At the same time, the Bank of Canada, whose meeting is scheduled for today at 16:45 (GMT+2), may decide to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points. This move will put pressure on the Canadian dollar. Weak macroeconomic indicators indicate the likelihood of such a scenario. In December, the consumer price index in Canada slowed from 1.9% to 1.8% in annual terms, and the monthly value decreased from 0.0% to -0.4%. Retail sales data for November also turned out to be worse than expected: the overall figure remained unchanged, while sales excluding cars decreased by 0.7%, instead of the projected 0.1% increase.USD/CAD technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator indicates a flat, but the price range remains wide enough to match the current market volatility. The MACD continues to decline, maintaining the sell signal — the histogram remains below the signal line. Stochastic stabilized at the "20" mark, signaling a possible oversold pair in the short term.Trading Recommendations1. Sale:Open positions after the breakdown of the 1.4300 level downwards.Target is 1.4200.Stop loss is 1.4350.2. Buy:Consider long positions after a rebound from the 1.4300 level and a breakdown of resistance at 1.4350.Target is 1.4435.Stop loss is 1.4300.The current dynamics of the USD/CAD pair indicates the need for careful monitoring of the news background and monetary decisions of Central Banks, as they remain the main drivers of the exchange rate ...
USD/CAD trading idea on January 22, 2025In Asian trading on Wednesday, USD/CAD maintains moderate growth, trading near the level of 1.4330. Against the background of recent events, the pair reached a 2020 high at 1.4515. This surge was caused by statements by US President Donald Trump about the possible introduction of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports from February 1.Canada, being the second largest trading partner of the United States with an annual turnover of about $ 600 billion, is under pressure due to the proposed duties. The main impact could be on the country's automotive industry, given that a significant part of the Canadian automotive industry is focused on the US market. Analysts predict that such tariffs could result in annual losses of more than $30 billion for the sector, and Canada's GDP could lose 0.5% or more.Additional pressure on the Canadian economy is exerted by the national emergency declared by Donald Trump in the energy sector. The new measures include simplifying the issuance of drilling permits and lifting restrictions on oil production in strategically important areas such as the Arctic. These actions are aimed at restoring the US national oil reserve, depleted during Biden's presidency. Increased oil production in the United States poses risks to the Canadian oil sector, one of the country's key export destinations.An additional factor of pressure on the Canadian dollar was the inflation report for December. The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, against zero dynamics in November. The annual rate also slowed from 1.9% to 1.8%, raising doubts about the Bank of Canada's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target.Weak macroeconomic data reinforces expectations that the Bank of Canada may cut rates further at its next meeting in late January, possibly in increments of 50 basis points. If the forecasts are confirmed, the Canadian dollar is likely to continue to lose ground. John Murphy's technical analysis also confirms this scenario.Trading recommendationsUSD/CAD remains in the bullish zone, with the potential for further growth. In the event of an escalation of the trade conflict or increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada, the pair may reach new local highs. Based on the above, we have placed a pending order for USD/CAD:• Buy Stop: 1.4350• Take Profit: 1.4550• Stop Loss: ...
During Friday morning trading, USD/CAD continues to develop an uptrend and demonstrates moderate growth, approaching the level of 1.4410. Nevertheless, the pair remains under pressure after a significant decline on Monday. Investors are cautious about forming new positions, waiting for the publication of key data on the US and Canadian labor markets at 15:30 (GMT+2).Analysts' forecasts suggest the creation of 154 thousand new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector, which is lower than November's 227 thousand. It is also expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will slow from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, while unemployment will remain at 4.2%. The latest data from ADP, reflecting employment in the private sector, indicates a decrease in the number of new jobs from 146 thousand to 122 thousand, which is also lower than the projected 140 thousand. In light of these indicators, it is unlikely that the labor market will have a significant impact on the Fed. Fed officials, including Lisa Cook, are taking a cautious approach, emphasizing the resilience of inflation and the strength of the labor market, which allows us to consider the possibility of slowing the pace of rate cuts.The situation is complicated by expectations of the actions of the new administration of Donald Trump, including the possible imposition of customs duties on imports from China, Mexico and Canada, which may force the Fed to adhere to a more stringent monetary policy.Forecasts for Canada suggest a reduction in employment growth in December to 25,000 from the previous 50,500, while the unemployment rate may rise slightly to 6.9%. Additionally, attention will be drawn to data on the number of building permits, which are expected to show an increase of 1.8% after falling by 3.1% in the previous month.Political uncertainty in Canada has intensified after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign. The possible strengthening of the Conservative Party's position under the leadership of Pierre Pouillevre may lead to changes in fiscal policy and affect the strategy of the Bank of Canada.Technical indicators on the daily chart signal a possible overbought US dollar. The Bollinger Band indicator remains in the horizontal position, and the MACD is preparing to form a buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought level, which may increase the risks of correction.Trading recommendations- It is recommended to open long positions with a confident breakdown of the 1.4435 level with a target of 1.4500. We put the stop loss at 1.4400.- Sales can be considered with a rebound from the 1.4435 level and a subsequent breakdown of the key support at 1.4400 with a target of 1.4300. The stop loss is ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
