The USD/CAD pair is adjusted at 1.3569, which is due to the weakening of the US dollar.The Canadian dollar is showing strengthening, remaining above the levels of the previous week. It was supported by wholesale trade data: in July, the volume of wholesale sales, excluding oil and cereals, increased by 1.1% on a monthly basis and by 0.4% to 82.7 billion Canadian dollars annually. Growth was recorded in four of the seven main sectors, with the largest contribution from trade in agricultural goods (+9.2%) and beverages (+1.7%). At the same time, the segments of goods for personal use and household showed the largest reduction — by 22.2% and 2.5%, respectively. As a result of the increase in production, inventories of goods increased from -0.1% to 0.5% in July, and the ratio of inventories to sales remained at 1.54 points, which indicates a stable situation in the sector.Since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has been showing a decline and is trading at 101.00 in the USDX index. Investors practically did not react to the data on price indices in international trade published on Friday: in August, the export price index fell by 0.7% in both annual and monthly terms, after rising by 1.2% earlier. The import price index was -0.3% on a monthly basis and 0.8% on an annual basis, which is lower than the previous value of 1.7%. This indicates a slowdown in U.S. foreign trade for the second month in a row, which may be due to higher interest rates in the country, while other leading economies are already starting to lower them.Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3710.Support levels: 1.3540, 1.3440.AUD/USD: after correction, the pair moves back to growthThe AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, returning to the "bullish" trend after a slight correction observed at the end of last week. Now the instrument is trying to overcome the level of 0.6725, which is facilitated by the expectation of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, in particular, a possible adjustment in the cost of borrowing.Investors also drew attention to macroeconomic indicators from China, released over the weekend. The data turned out to be weaker than expected: in August, industrial production increased by 4.5%, slowing from 5.1%, although 4.8% was forecast. Retail sales also showed a decrease, increasing by 2.1% against the expected 2.5% and the previous figure of 2.7%. Since the beginning of the year, investments in urban economy have decreased to 3.4%, which turned out to be slightly below expectations of 3.5%.On Thursday at 03:30 (GMT+2), the market will pay attention to the Australian labor market report for August. Employment is expected to decline from 58.2 thousand to 30.8 thousand, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.2%. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chief Economist Sarah Hunter earlier noted that the labor sector continues to recover, although population growth is outpacing employment figures. Companies are also reducing the amount of hours worked, which may affect the decisions of the regulator. In order to combat inflation, the RBA has already raised the interest rate by 425 basis points, bringing it to a 12—year high of 4.35%.Resistance levels: 0.6732, 0.6750, 0.6775, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6675, 0.6642, 0.6622.USD/JPY: analysts do not expect a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this monthThe USD/JPY pair is showing a downward trend, approaching the July 2023 lows at 140.20. The depreciation of the US currency is due to expectations of a change in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). The Fed's two-day meeting starts tomorrow, and the baseline scenario still assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points. However, the probability of a more significant 50 basis point decline has increased markedly and, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, is 59% compared to 30% last week. In addition, market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about a possible additional rate cut before the end of the year.The Bank of Japan will also hold a meeting this week, and although the regulator is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, the comments of the bank's representatives will be carefully analyzed by investors. In addition, Japanese inflation data for August will be published on Friday. Forecasts indicate a slight acceleration in the consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, from 2.7% to 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, this may strengthen the position of the Bank of Japan on the issue of further interest rate increases. According to a Reuters poll, none of the 52 economists expects a rate increase at the September 19-20 meeting. However, 54% of respondents assume that changes in monetary policy are possible by the end of the year, which is slightly less than 57% last month. The median forecast indicates an increase in the rate by 25 basis points, reaching the level of 0.50%. Among a narrower group of 23 experts, the majority favored a policy adjustment in December.Resistance levels: 141.00, 141.76, 142.50, 143.35.Support levels: 140.00, 139.35, 138.50, 137.50.Oil market analysisAt the beginning of the week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed a weak downward momentum, developing after Friday's decline, when quotes retreated from peak values on September 6. They are currently testing the 71.20 level, trying to break it down. Investors are awaiting the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which begins tomorrow. Analysts predict a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%, and are also waiting for signals regarding further steps by the regulator.Oil dynamics are also under pressure from the recent decision of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which lowered their forecasts for oil demand due to the slowdown in the economies of Europe and China. This concern intensified after the publication of macroeconomic data: in August, industrial production fell from 5.1% to 4.5%, which was lower than expectations of 4.8%. Retail sales also fell from 2.7% to 2.1%, although 2.5% was forecast. In addition, analysts note a slowdown in oil demand growth, linking this to China's transition to more environmentally friendly fuels and a decrease in gasoline demand in developed countries. Brent futures prices have fallen from a high of $82.0 per barrel in early August to a three-year low below $70.0 per barrel. This happened despite a reduction in Libyan oil supplies and a continued decrease in reserves. According to forecasts, the indicator will grow by only 900 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and by 950 thousand barrels per day. barrels per day next year, which may lead to a decrease in consumption in developed countries by almost 2 thousand barrels per day compared to the level preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 74.00, 75.04.Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 69.00, ...
USD/CAD analysis for October 18, 2024On Friday, USD/CAD shows mixed movements, consolidating around the 1.3800 mark, without moving much away from the local highs on October 15. The volatility of currency pairs in the market remains low by the end of the week, as there is little significant macroeconomic data. Investors are analyzing already published statistics and preparing for the upcoming US presidential elections in early November.This week, data on retail sales in the United States were released. In September, they increased by 0.4% (against 0.1% in August), which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. Industrial production, on the contrary, decreased by 0.3% after rising by 0.3% a month earlier, which is slightly worse than expected. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in October increased from 1.7 to 10.3 points, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply — from 260 thousand to 241 thousand in the week of October 11.In Canada, inflation statistics were published this week, which may affect future decisions of the Bank of Canada. The core consumer price index in September showed zero dynamics in monthly terms after a decrease of 0.1% in August, and in annual terms it increased from 1.5% to 1.6%. However, the overall inflation rate fell to 1.6% year-on-year, which was lower than preliminary estimates.A steady upward trend is visible on the chart of days. The Bollinger bands remain wide despite a slight narrowing, which indicates the possibility of further activity. The MACD indicator supports a weak buy signal, and the Stochastic indicates a downward trend, ignoring corrective movements.In case of a confident breakdown up to the 1.3800 level, we will open long positions with a target of 1.3900 and a stop loss at 1.3750.If the pair bounces off this level and breaks down to 1.3765, then we get a sales signal with a target of 1.3700. We will set the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: The ECB is considering a rate cut on October 17thThe EUR/USD pair is at 1.0968. Although recent macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone have looked relatively stable, the European currency is showing a downward trend.The number of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) supporting President Christine Lagarde's policy of further lowering interest rates continues to grow. In particular, Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, noted that the labor market is significantly weakening, which may affect the level of investment and slow economic growth below normal. He added that the number of open vacancies decreased by 20% compared to two years ago, and the number of new employees fell by 10% compared to the maximum of the second quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, he stressed that inflation is under control, and regulators will strive to keep it at the target level of 2%. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galot also confirmed the possibility of easing monetary policy, saying that the expected slowdown in inflation makes an interest rate adjustment at the October 17 meeting almost inevitable, although questions remain about its size. Important comments on this issue are expected to be made today when ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speak. Rate changes may amount to more than 25 basis points, which in the short term will create pressure on the euro.On Monday, investors expect the release of statistics on retail sales in the eurozone for August: forecasts suggest a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on data on production orders in Germany, which fell by 5.8% in August after rising by 3.9% in the previous month, while expectations were at the level of a reduction of only 2%.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1120.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0830.USD/CHF: the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.6% in SeptemberIn the Asian session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight decline, deviating from the highs set on August 20, which were updated last week thanks to the support of American economic statistics.By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Switzerland increased from 2.5% to 2.6%, which came as a surprise to the market, which did not expect changes or predicted only a slight decrease. At the same time, the consumer price index decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to zero in August, which increases the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank will again decide to reduce the already low interest rate. However, on Tuesday, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, noted that inflation in the country is supported by rising prices for services and rent. In addition, wage growth remains below the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target range, set at 0.0–2.0%.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517, 0.8500.USD/CAD: bulls are developing a positive trend for the US dollarThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" trend established last week: quotes are testing the level of 1.3585, being near the local highs of September 19.The US dollar is significantly supported by the September labor market report published on Friday. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 159.0 thousand. Analysts expected an increase of only 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.8%, although the indicator slowed from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. It is worth noting that according to the instrument of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November is now less than 30.0%, while the week before last, before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this figure exceeded 60.0%.At the end of the week, a report on the Canadian labor market is expected to be published: employment is projected to grow from 22.1 thousand to 34.5 thousand, the average hourly wage will remain in the range of 4.9–5.0% and the unemployment rate at 6.6%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, announced his intention to expand the Board of Governors from six to seven members, introducing a new position of an external employee who will participate in voting on interest rate adjustments. This step is aimed at taking into account the difficult economic situation and will add new views and skills to the work of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3569, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.NZD/USD: the rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from the RBNZThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline last week, which led to an update of local lows since September 12. Quotes are currently testing the 0.6160 level for the possibility of an upward breakdown, while the macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable.Experts suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its meeting on October 9. Despite the lack of fresh inflation data, the July figures showed a more significant decrease than expected, amounting to 3.3%. At the same time, the base index exceeded the forecast of 5.4%. The decline in economic activity continues to put pressure on the regulator, pushing for an early approach of interest rates to the target 3.00%, according to analysts at ING Research. The latest RBNZ estimates suggest that the consumer price index will be 2.3%, and the base index will be 5.1% in the third quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254.Support levels: 0.6145, 0.6124, 0.6100, ...
USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, ...
USD/CAD analysis on October 2, 2024During Wednesday's Asian trading session, USD/CAD shows multidirectional fluctuations near the 1.3490 mark.Investors are refraining from active actions until the release of the US employment report from ADP, which is expected at 14:15 (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest an increase in employment from 99 thousand to 120 thousand, which may support the US dollar. At the same time, the official report on the US labor market contains Non-farm Payrolls. The number of new jobs outside agriculture is projected to decrease from 142 thousand to 140 thousand. The average hourly wage growth is projected to remain at 3.8% year—on-year, with a slight decrease on a monthly basis - from 0.4% to 0.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.The Canadian employment report will not be released this week. However, the day before, an increase in the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global was recorded from 49.5 to 50.4 points. In the United States, a similar index from ISM remained at 47.2, failing to justify optimistic forecasts. Canada's economy grew below 1.5% in the third quarter, indicating a slowdown. This, as noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, may weaken inflation, which reached the 2% target in August. The Bank of Canada has already cut the interest rate three times since June, but the latest data creates the prerequisites for a larger act of monetary expansion. It is possible that the next decrease will be by 50 basis points at once. However, the final decision of the regulator will depend on the employment report.Additional support for the US dollar is provided by the statement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who proposed limiting the rate cut to 25 basis points. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, immediately fell to 35%, whereas previously this figure exceeded 50%.On the daily chart, the main forex indicators do not give unambiguous signals. Bollinger bands are showing a decline. The MACD retains a weak buy signal. Stochastic signals a possible downward reversal.When breaking down the 1.3475 level, it is recommended to open short positions with a target of 1.3440 and a stop loss at 1.3500.For purchases, you should wait for a rebound from the 1.3475 level, a breakdown of 1.3500 and a price consolidation above this key resistance. The nearest target is 1.3550. We will set the stop loss at ...
USD/CAD analysis on October 1, 2024USD/CAD is in the correction phase at 1.3524, while the Canadian currency is under pressure due to weak economic activity, despite positive reports on key sectors.In July, after the June stagnation, Canada's GDP grew by 0.2%. Retail trade (+1.0%, the highest figures since 2023 for the second month in a row), the financial sector (+0.5%) and utilities (+1.3%) contributed to the growth. However, the real estate sector showed a decline of 0.4%, which restrained the overall economic growth of the country.The US dollar is strengthening, which is due to the positive reaction of investors to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who cooled expectations of a rapid reduction in interest rates, declaring the regulator's intention to return to moderate steps of reduction by 25 basis points. At 16:00 (GMT+2), JOLTS data on the number of open vacancies in the United States is expected to be published: analysts predict a slight increase from 7.637 million to 7.640 million after the July drop.Technical analysis shows a correction of USD/CAD inside the descending channel with the boundaries of 1.3600–1.3380. The indicators show a strengthening of the sell signal. The EMA range is expanding on the alligator, the awesome oscillator indicator forms correction bars below the zero level.After fixing the pair below 1.3500, we form short positions with a target of 1.3380. We place the stop loss at 1.3570.Purchases are possible after the breakout of the 1.3550 level. The nearest target will be 1.3650. We will set the stop loss at ...
USD/CAD analysis on September 23, 2024USD/CAD is being adjusted at 1.3558 as the Canadian dollar tries to regain ground amid conflicting economic data. In July, retail sales increased from -0.2% to 0.9%, and excluding cars, the indicator rose from 0.3% to 0.4%. However, in August, commodity prices fell sharply from 0.7% to -3.1% for the month and from 4.1% to -2.5% year—on-year, due to falling oil prices - an important export resource of Canada. Prices for manufactured goods also slowed from -0.1% to -0.8%, which may negatively affect export revenues.The US dollar index has weakened since the beginning of the week, trading at 100.40, as the market awaits statistical data that will help determine the future prospects for economic recovery in the United States. It is predicted that in September, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may grow from 47.9 to 48.6 points, remaining below the key level of 50 points, and in the service sector it will adjust from 55.7 to 55.3 points, which indicates neutral dynamics.On the daily chart, the pair is adjusted within the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.3650–1.3530.Technical indicators indicate a strengthening of the sell signal: the EMA on the alligator indicator diverges, and the awesome oscillator histogram forms corrective bars, approaching the neutral zone.- Short positions can be opened when the pair drops below the 1.3530 level with a target of 1.3440. We will set the stop loss at 1.3570.- It is advisable to form long positions after fixing the price above 1.3600 with a target of 1.3690. In this case, we will place the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: euro remains near local heightsThe EUR/USD pair shows a slight decrease, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. Now the instrument is trying to break through the level of 1.1120, while investors are waiting for the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed), starting today. In recent weeks, Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have repeatedly hinted at a possible interest rate cut this month. The deterioration of inflation indicators and the cooling of the labor market create conditions for easing monetary policy. Recently, markets have been increasingly predicting the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut. The FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows that the probability of such a move reached almost 60% at the beginning of the week, although just a week ago this scenario was estimated at 25-30%. By the end of 2024, the overall rate cut could reach 125 basis points. In addition, investors drew attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which unexpectedly rose from -4.7 to 11.5 points in September, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.9 points.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone did not have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate. The Italian consumer price index for August remained at 0.2% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual economic recovery and a return to pre-crisis indicators. The index calculated according to EU standards decreased from 1.3% to 1.2% in annual terms and from -0.1% to -0.2% on a monthly basis. The eurozone's trade balance in July, excluding seasonal fluctuations, decreased from 21.7 billion euros to 21.2 billion euros, although analysts had predicted a more significant decline to 14.9 billion euros.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: experts expect the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 0.5%The GBP/USD pair is approaching its annual highs, trading around 1.3206. Among the currencies of developed countries, the pound stands out as the only one showing strengthening against the US dollar, having added 3.9% since the beginning of the year.This positive trend is associated with the recovery of key sectors of the UK economy. Forecasts for the housing price index from Rightmove Group Ltd. They point to a possible increase in September: the indicator is expected to increase from -1.5% to 0.8% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.2% on an annual basis. Consumer inflation data for August, which will be released on Wednesday, are also in the spotlight. Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 2.2% year-on-year, while the underlying indicator may accelerate from 3.3% to 3.5%. This may indicate the need to maintain the current course of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In addition, the retail price index is expected to slow from 3.6% to 3.4% in August. These statistics will be key to the decision of the Bank of England, whose monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the next day. Experts assume that the regulator will leave the interest rate at 5.00%, but the comments of the bank's management will be carefully analyzed by investors to predict the further movement of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3400.Support levels: 1.3176, 1.3040.NZD/USD: New Zealand's services sector shows growth for the first time since AprilThe NZD/USD pair is showing an unstable decline, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6193 for a breakdown downwards, while traders are closely following the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.On the other hand, some support for the New Zealand dollar came from the country's macroeconomic statistics. At the end of last week, the market drew attention to the improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in August, which rose from 44.4 to 45.8 points. In addition, the index of business activity in the service sector from Business NZ rose from 45.2 to 45.5 points, reaching its highest since April. Despite the fact that both indicators remain below 50.0 points, indicating a reduction in activity, their growth shows some signs of stabilization. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled for October 9. Until then, investors' attention will be focused on the GDP data for the second quarter, which will be released on Thursday. Forecasts indicate a possible contraction of the economy by -0.4% on a quarterly basis and by 0.5% on an annual basis. If these expectations are confirmed, the RBNZ will probably decide to keep the interest rate at 5.25%, refraining from further changes.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6158, 0.6124, 0.6100.USD/CAD: markets are waiting for Canadian inflation data for AugustDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is making attempts to recover, but the US dollar is under pressure due to rising expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today, and according to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the probability of such a decision is now estimated at 59%. Investors also expect further rate changes before the end of the year.Canada's inflation statistics attract the attention of traders, as they may affect the future decision of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy. Preliminary forecasts indicate a slowdown in the consumer price index in August — from 0.4% to 0.1% on a monthly basis, and maintaining at the level of 2.5% in annual terms. In addition, it is expected to publish data on the start of construction of houses, which are likely to show a decrease from 279.5 thousand to 256.0 thousand. Earlier, the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, expressed concerns about the cooling of the labor market, falling oil prices and a decrease in immigration. He admitted that the interest rate adjustment may be more significant than expected, up to 50 basis points, which is twice the current rate of decline of 25 basis points. This may become necessary if the economy demonstrates sufficient resilience. In August, the unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.6%, compared with a low of 4.8% in 2022, while in the United States this figure reached 4.2% against 3.4%. Macklem expressed concern about the weakness of the labor market, noting that the employment rate and the number of vacancies had decreased to the levels observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since June, the Bank of Canada has already lowered the rate from 5.0% to 4.25%, which has slowed inflation to 2.5%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. Macklem stressed that a further decrease in inflation may be the reason for a more significant rate change.Resistance levels: 1.3607, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3582, 1.3550, 1.3524, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...
Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month. In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit. To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements. Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...