Trading signals and online forecasts USD/CAD

USD/CAD analysis on March 18, 2025During Tuesday morning's session, USD/CAD is recovering from yesterday's decline, which resulted in updated lows on March 6. Quotes are testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new drivers to appear for further movement.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on Canadian inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 1.9% to 2.1–2.2% in annual terms and from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. The base index, which excludes food and energy resources, may adjust from 2.1% to 2.2% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.These data may put pressure on the Bank of Canada, forcing it to take a pause in further monetary policy easing. This trend is observed by most major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which will hold a meeting on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2). Although no Fed rate changes are expected, the tone of the accompanying statement may be more dovish, which will have an impact on the markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised down its forecasts for global economic growth. The increase in foreign trade tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.Sanctions and trade restrictions will negatively affect business investment and may accelerate consumer price growth, which will allow central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Economic growth in the United States is projected to slow to 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year, and in Canada to 0.7% in both years, well below previous expectations.Markets reacted to February data on retail sales in the United States, which showed a decrease from 3.9% to 3.1% in annual terms, which is worse than expected. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, but also failed to meet forecasts of 0.7%.Special attention was drawn to the sharp decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March: the indicator fell from 5.7 points to -20.0 points, which is significantly worse than the expected level of -1.9 points.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is decreasing moderately. The MACD indicator retains a sell signal. Stochastic has reached its minimum values and is turning up, signaling the risks of oversold conditions in the short term.Trading recommendations:- After breaking down the 1.4250 level, we will consider selling with a target of 1.4145. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.4300.- Purchases are possible after an upward breakdown of the 1.4350 level. The target will be 1.4451. We put the stop loss at ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

Eurozone: fiscal package discussion and industrial productionInvestors are following the preliminary debate in the German parliament on the proposed fiscal stimulus package. At the moment, the Green Party opposes the initiative, but this is more of a tactical move to obtain concessions before the final vote scheduled for next Tuesday.The focus is also on data on industrial production in the eurozone for January. Output has continued to decline over the past two years, but with soft indicators improving, it will be important for the market to see if this affects real statistics.USA: inflation and labor market dataThe Producer Price Index (PPI) for February is expected to be published in the United States today, as well as weekly statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation, and now the markets will assess whether a similar trend in the PPI will follow. According to forecasts, the index growth will be 0.3% mom versus 0.4% in January.Sweden: inflation dataMarkets are expecting a detailed inflation report for February. The preliminary data turned out to be higher than forecasts: the Riksbank's target index (CPIF) was 2.9% yoy (forecast: 2.7%), the CPIF base index excluding energy resources was 3.0% yoy (forecast: 2.7%). The overall consumer price index (CPI) was fixed at 1.3% YoY (forecast: 1.1%).USA: slowing inflation and prospects for Fed policyFebruary data on inflation in the United States turned out to be lower than expected: CPI decreased to 2.8% (forecast: 2.9%, previous value: 3.0%), and the base CPI – to 3.1% (forecast: 3.2%, previous value: 3.3%). These data confirmed that the sharp increase in January was most likely temporary. Given the current trend, the Fed is likely to continue its policy of easing monetary policy, and the first rate cut may take place as early as June.EU: retaliatory measures to US tariffs and Lagarde's speechThe European Commission announced the introduction of countermeasures against US duties on steel and metals, which came into force the day before. The EU measures are aimed at compensating for the economic effect of US tariffs in a 1:1 ratio, but can be canceled if agreements are reached. So far, the impact of these trade restrictions on economic growth and inflation is estimated to be negligible, as they affect only about 5% of European exports to the United States.The speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde did not give clear signals regarding the upcoming meeting in April. In the context of geopolitical instability and changes in fiscal policy, the ECB intends to remain flexible in its decisions. Lagarde stressed the risk that inflation volatility could lead to a sustained increase due to wage adjustments, which requires a cautious approach to rates. At the moment, the markets estimate the probability of a rate cut in April at 45%.Canada: rate cut and response to trade barriersThe Bank of Canada, as expected, lowered its key rate by 25 bps to 2.75%. The market reaction was restrained, as the main focus is on the uncertainty surrounding the US tariffs. In response to the US duties, Canada promptly retaliated against about $21 billion worth of imports from the United States, calling Washington's actions "unfair and unjustified."Stock marketAgainst the background of the correction in the United States, the main indexes partially recovered: the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq - 1.2%. The European market also closed in positive territory (Stoxx 600 +0.8%), however, there is a rotation of assets: investors leave the defensive sectors (consumer goods -2.5%) and switch back to technology stocks. However, against the background of new economic data, futures on major indexes indicate a deterioration in market sentiment.Bonds and currenciesThe yield of American bonds is growing compared to European ones: The spread on the 10-year US-Bund widened by 5 bps to 143 bps. A similar trend is observed for 2-year securities. The EUR/USD pair is trading steadily near 1.09.The Bank of Canada's decision to lower the rate did not cause sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. EUR/NOK declined during trading on Wednesday and is near 11.57, while the markets estimate the probability of a rate cut in Norway in March at about 50%. The EUR/SEK pair initially rose above 11.01, but then adjusted back below ...

Overnight, the Canadian dollar experienced sharp volatility after US President Donald Trump announced a possible increase in duties on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50%. This unexpected tightening of trade policy caused a sharp weakening of the loonie, as markets feared an imminent blow to Canadian exports.However, the situation changed after Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced the suspension of surcharges on electricity exports to the United States and scheduled a meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick. After that, Trump made it clear that he could reconsider the tariff increase, which helped the Canadian dollar partially regain its lost ground.Tariff uncertainty and Bank of Canada rate expectationsDespite the temporary easing of pressure, tariff-related uncertainty continues to negatively affect business sentiment on both sides of the border. Companies and consumers are concerned about the possible economic consequences of trade restrictions, which increases pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC).The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in the key rate at today's BoC meeting. However, market participants now expect at least two additional rate cuts before the end of the year, as the regulator is likely to seek to mitigate the effects of the trade conflict and support economic growth.Special attention today will be focused on the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada: its forecast and comments can set the tone for the further movement of the Canadian dollar and determine expectations for future monetary policy decisions.USD/CAD technical analysisFor (H4), USD/CAD declined to the level of 1.4541, and the intraday sentiment remains neutral for now. In general, the current movement from 1.4791 looks like a corrective structure, where the recovery from 1.4150 can be considered as the second phase of correction.If the quotes break through 1.4541, the buyers will open the way to 1.4629, the level of 100% projection of the movement of 1.4150–1.4541 from 1.4238. However, in the broader perspective, strong resistance near 1.4791 may limit growth, which will lead to the formation of a third wave of decline.On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.4238, we will get a signal for the beginning of the third downward wave, which is aimed at breaking the support of 1.4150.In the long-term horizon, according to the Daily, the uptrend remains in force after the breakdown of the key resistance zone of 1.4667/89 (the highs of 2020 and 2015). The next growth target is the 1.4993 level, which is a 100% projection of the 1.2401–1.3976 movement from 1.3418.This scenario will be relevant as long as the support of 1.3976 (2022 maximum) remains stable, even if the pair goes into a deep ...

USD/CAD forex analysis on March 11, 2025In Tuesday's morning session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows neutral dynamics, remaining near the 1.4435 mark. The volatility of currency pairs is low. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for important economic data and decisions that may set the direction of further movement.On Tuesday at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market will focus on the February US inflation report. The annual consumer price index is projected to decrease further from 3.0% to 2.9%, and monthly from 0.5% to 0.3%. The base index (excluding food and energy resources) may also drop from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. These data can strengthen market expectations regarding a possible easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.An additional uncertainty factor remains the risk of escalating trade conflicts. In March, the administration of Donald Trump may announce new tariffs against the EU, as well as impose duties on steel and aluminum imports. Markets see this as a threat to economic growth.The Bank of Canada will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. (GMT+2). The key rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to 2.75%. This will be the seventh decline in a row. However, the regulator's further steps remain questionable due to increased uncertainty related to the US tariff policy.This week, US duties of 25% on a number of Canadian goods came into force. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced mirror measures. At the same time, the United States granted a temporary postponement for some items on the USMCA list, which leaves room for possible negotiations.The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, previously stressed that the regulator will have to consider the balance between the risks of an economic slowdown and rising inflation caused by trade restrictions. According to market estimates, the probability of a March rate cut has exceeded 80%.The latest employment report in Canada disappointed investors: job growth in February was only 1.1 thousand instead of the expected 20.0 thousand, against the previous value of 76.0 thousand. The average hourly wage accelerated from 3.7% to 4.0%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.6%, contrary to the forecast of 6.7%.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger bands continue to expand, indicating high volatility. The MACD indicates a weak buy signal, as its histogram is above the signal line. The stochastic oscillator maintains an upward direction, approaching the overbought zone, which may signal a possible correction in the near future.Trading recommendations• Purchases should be considered after a confident breakdown of the 1.4472 level, with a target of 1.4550. The stop loss can be placed at 1.4435. Implementation period: 1-2 days.• Open sales after the breakdown of the 1.4400 level down, with a target of 1.4300. The stop loss is 1.4450.Thus, the USD/CAD pair remains in a zone of uncertainty, and the upcoming macroeconomic events may set a new direction for ...

EUR/USD: ECB cut the rate by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend at 1.0807, showing the most significant weekly growth since November 2022.The main driver of the strengthening of the European currency was the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy. The deposit rate was lowered to 2.50%, and the key interest rate dropped from 2.90% to 2.65%, which was a reaction to the easing of inflationary pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that these measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth, but did not rule out that in April the regulator may take a pause in changing rates due to the uncertainty of the foreign trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump.Additional support for the single currency is provided by the prospects of increased government spending on defense and infrastructure projects, which, according to experts, can stimulate economic growth in the eurozone. Nevertheless, such measures may increase inflationary pressures. The European Commission has already presented a program providing loans for 150 billion euros to finance defense initiatives in EU countries.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0970.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0600.GBP/USD: traders' attention is focused on the labor market in the United StatesThe pound sterling shows mixed dynamics in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, remaining near the local highs of November 11 and testing the 1.2880 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are being cautious in anticipation of the emergence of new factors that could set the direction for the movement of quotations.The key event of the day will be the publication of the February report on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts expect an increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage is likely to maintain annual growth at 4.1%, but in monthly terms may slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.0%. On Wednesday, ADP has already published data on employment in the private sector, which disappointed the markets with a sharp drop from 186.0 thousand to 77.0 thousand. The statistics on applications for unemployment benefits received yesterday turned out to be contradictory: initial applications decreased to 221.0 thousand with a forecast of 235.0 thousand, and repeat applications increased to 1.897 million against expectations of 1.880 million.Hugh Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, expressed doubt about the possibility of a significant reduction in interest rates in the future, given persistent inflation. According to him, monetary policy should remain restrained in the face of uncertainty caused by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump, fluctuations in energy prices and plans to index taxes in the new UK budget. The Bank of England survey results showed that business inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased from 3.0% to 3.1%, and companies plan to raise prices for goods and services by 4.0%, higher than previous forecasts of 3.9%.Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2800, 1.2747, 1.2690.USD/CAD: Canada appealed to the WTO because of Washington's dutiesDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair is showing recovery after three days of decline, during which quotes reached their lowest values since February 24. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.The Canadian authorities have contacted the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a request for consultations on the issue of trade duties imposed by the United States: 25.0% on non—energy goods and 10.0% on energy. US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held telephone talks after Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs on American goods worth 155.0 billion Canadian dollars (107.4 billion US dollars). Earlier, Trudeau said that Washington's actions are aimed at undermining the country's economy and could lead to its "absorption," adding that Canada "will never become the 51st state." According to the latest data, some goods, including automotive products, will be subject to new duties only in a month, which will allow Ottawa to temporarily refrain from introducing the second part of retaliatory measures.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USDX: US dollar index shows the most powerful bearish trend in monthsThe US dollar index (USDX) shows a slight decline in morning trading, continuing the most powerful "bearish" trend of recent months, formed since the beginning of the week. Quotes are again testing the 104.00 level for a downward breakdown, while the index managed to update the lows from November 5 the day before. The decline in the USDX exchange rate is due to several factors. First of all, the growth of the European currency was spurred by the announcement of significant investments in German defense and infrastructure. The German authorities have also eased the limit on government borrowing, which has led to higher yields on long-term bonds.Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by a change in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. Some goods from Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt from new duties of 25%, which gave US trading partners a reason to slow down with retaliatory measures. Canada will refrain from imposing the second part of the "mirror sanctions" until April, and Mexico has promised to provide its response by the end of the week. In addition, market participants continue to reassess expectations about the policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Against the background of mixed macroeconomic data and pressure from the Trump administration, it is predicted that the regulator will limit itself to two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 104.50, 105.00, 105.30, 105.58.Support levels: 104.00, 103.60, 103.30, ...

EUR/USD: the market is waiting for the results of the Bundestag electionsThe weakening of the dollar contributes to the strengthening of the euro, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading around 1.0518. The European currency was supported by news about the victory of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) in the Bundestag elections, where they received 28.6% of the vote. The second place was taken by the Alternative for Germany with a score of 20.8%, while the party of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz scored only 16.4%. The outcome of the vote could lead to significant changes in the economic and political spheres, including possible fiscal reform promoted by the CDU/CSU. In addition, the election results will have an impact on the EU's position on the policy of US President Donald Trump, in particular on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and security in Europe.The macroeconomic data, which is expected to be published today at 11:00 (GMT+2), may have an additional impact on the pair's exchange rate. According to forecasts, the consumer price index in January will decrease by -0.3% after rising by 0.4% a month earlier, which in annual terms may accelerate inflation to 2.5% from the previous 2.4%. The base rate is likely to remain at 2.7%, which exceeds the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2.0%, but is not yet sufficient to review the monetary policy easing strategy.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0710.Support levels: 1.0470, 1.0290.USD/CHF: Swiss Labor Market report in focusIn the morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, updating the lows of February 23 and testing support around 0.8960. Market activity remains subdued, as participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.On Monday at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on employment changes for the fourth quarter will be released in Switzerland, where the indicator previously increased from 5.499 million to 5.528 million, continuing the upward trend. On Thursday at 10:00 (GMT+2), investors will receive updated statistics on the country's GDP, and forecasts indicate a slowdown in growth from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which may weaken the franc's position. At 12:00 (GMT+2), the market's attention will switch to eurozone inflation indicators: the consumer price index is expected to be 2.5%, and core inflation is expected to be 2.7%. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports to the United States increased sharply in January, partially offsetting lower shipments to China and India. The volume of shipments increased from 64.2 to 192.9 tons, which is the highest figure since 2012.The US currency is reacting to the latest S&P Global business activity data. The manufacturing sector index increased from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding expectations of 51.5 points, while the same indicator in the service sector fell from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which was lower than the projected 53.0 points. For the first time since February 2023, the value fell below the key mark of 50.0 points, which may indicate the negative consequences of the Fed's long-term high-interest rate policy. However, market participants are still in no hurry to adjust expectations for monetary policy easing, sticking to the forecast of two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.GBP/USD: the pair gained a foothold in the target area of 1.2687–1.2659Due to the strong economic performance of the UK, the GBP/USD pair has confidently gained a foothold above the resistance of 1.2525, which indicates the continuation of an upward correction with the potential for growth to 1.2785.Employment statistics for the last three months showed an increase of 107.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 35.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, which was better than expected at 4.5%. Inflation also exceeded forecasts: the consumer price index in January reached 3.0% in annual terms against the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.5%, and on a monthly basis the decrease was -0.1% instead of the expected -0.3%. An acceleration in price growth may force the Bank of England to suspend monetary policy easing, which supports the pound. In addition, a stable labor market suggests that the interest rate will remain high for longer than previously predicted.Resistance levels: 1.2785, 1.3023.Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2300.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada warns about risks to the economyThe US dollar is showing a moderate decline in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, correcting after a sharp rise on Friday. Quotes are testing support around 1.4190, while market participants are assessing the latest macroeconomic data on business activity and waiting for new factors that can set the direction of movement.Last week, Canada released December retail sales figures, which showed solid growth. On a monthly basis, volumes increased by 2.5% after a modest 0.2% increase in November, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.6%. Excluding car sales, the figure also beat forecasts, rising 2.7% after a 0.7% decline, while only 1.8% was expected. On Friday, February 28, investors' attention will switch to the publication of GDP data for December and the fourth quarter: growth of 0.3% in monthly terms is forecast after a decrease of 0.2% earlier, as well as quarterly dynamics of 0.3% and annual growth of 1.0%.The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, noted that the regulator has limited opportunities to neutralize the effects of the US administration's trade measures, unlike the period of fighting inflation after the pandemic. According to him, the Canadian economy is unlikely to recover as rapidly as after the crisis of 2020-2022: growth is possible, but production will remain below previous levels. On February 10, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports from March 12, including shipments from Canada. In addition, a drop in export earnings due to the sanctions policy may hit consumption levels, while retaliatory tariffs will only increase inflationary risks in the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, ...

Today, investors' attention is focused on the most important macroeconomic and political events. In Sweden, the results of a survey of inflation expectations conducted by the Origo group (formerly Prospera) are being published. The Riksbank focuses on the need to keep long-term (5–year) inflation expectations close to the target of 2%, which has been stable in the range of 1.9-2.1% since the beginning of 2024. We do not expect any sharp deviations from these values this month.In the UK, inflation data for January is on the agenda. Both the general price level and the base indicator are expected to rise, which is facilitated by higher prices for fuel and educational services. Service inflation is projected to rise to 5.1% against the expected 5.0%. This will be the last inflation report before the March meeting of the Bank of England, where markets do not attach much probability to a rate cut. Analysts believe that the next interest rate cut is possible only in May.This morning, China is publishing data on new home prices, which serve as an important indicator of the state of the real estate market. Recent reports show that the rate of price decline has slowed, which is in line with other indicators indicating a moderate recovery in housing demand. We expect prices to remain at about the same level in January as in December, indicating market stabilization.Market news and recent eventsIn the United States, President Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. Although no specific date has been announced for the start of tariffs, he also confirmed the launch of tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12. The markets will try to assess the sincerity of these statements today.Regarding the situation in Ukraine, American and Russian officials held their first meeting in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war – without Ukraine's participation. Both sides agreed to lay the foundations for future cooperation, with discussions on territorial arrangements and security guarantees expected in the future. Putin's foreign policy adviser noted that the United States and Russia are working on preparing a meeting between Trump and Putin.Sweden has published a detailed inflation report for January, which showed annual CPI growth slightly below expectations – 0.9% against the projected 1.0%, with a monthly change of 0.0%. At the same time, the CPIF baseline indicator excluding energy confirmed a preliminary value of 2.7% per annum, which may signal an increase in inflationary pressure.The UK has released a report on the labor market for December and January, where the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, and the number of people employed exceeded expectations, largely due to data on the public sector. This indicates that the Bank of England is likely to continue its cautious easing policy.In Germany, the February ZEW index rose above expectations, reaching -88.5, the highest in four months, while expectations for future market improvements increased to 26.0, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20.0. These data indicate the continuation of positive surprises in the German economy, despite the general stagnation, which, in turn, is a signal of stability.Market analysisStock markets continued their moderate growth. Yesterday, assets increased slightly despite the fact that the American stock exchanges were closed. European markets added about 0.5%, setting a new closing record for the year, and shares in the defense sector rose especially noticeably – Swedish SAAB recorded an increase of 16% per day and 30% per week. Markets in Asia are also showing strong positions, with South Korean stocks up 2% and some countries seeing significant annual gains of up to 10%. US index futures are slightly higher today.The debt market in Europe is experiencing an increase in government spending on defense and assistance to Ukraine. The EU is considering various financing mechanisms for these costs, which has caused government bond yields to rise, although spreads between peripheral and central countries remain narrow, indicating there is no clear desire to flee to safety.In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen showed the best dynamics among the G10 currencies, which was facilitated by the strong growth of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. EUR/USD is holding just below 1.05, while USD/CAD has stabilized around 1.42 following the release of Canada's January CPI, in line with expectations. The EUR/GBP exchange rate dropped to 0.83, and the following changes are observed in the Scandinavian region: EUR/SEK dropped below 11.22, and EUR/NOK – below 11.64. These movements indicate continued pressure on regional ...

The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...

The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...

Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month.  In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit.  To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements.  Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...