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Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Solana and Oil for Thursday, June 13, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Solana, cryptocurrency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Solana and Oil for Thursday, June 13, 2024 AUD/USD: Australian Dollar declines after May recordsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop, rolling back after yesterday's surge, when new local highs were reached since May 20, despite strengthening based on positive May data on the Australian labor market.The employment rate in Australia increased by 39.7 thousand, continuing to grow after adding 37.4 thousand in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 30.0 thousand Full-time employment increased by 41.7 thousand, despite the previous decrease of 7.6 thousand, while part-time employment decreased by 2.1 thousand, after an increase of 45.0 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. These impressive figures confirm the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) ability to ease monetary policy further.Meanwhile, the US dollar is stabilizing after the average trading session: The US Federal Reserve, following its last meeting, left the key rate at 5.50%, but left the door open for a rate cut in 2024. New economic forecasts from the Fed show a potential one and a half rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of this year, although market expectations hint at two such cuts. The latest US inflation data show a reduction in risks, which led to increased confidence among analysts in the possibility of the first rate cut in September. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy resources, showed a slowdown to 3.4% per annum and to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6667, 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725.Support levels: 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600, 0.6578.NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System confirmed the rate of 5.5% per annumDuring the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair is observing a moderate decline, reaching the level of 0.6166, after having recorded highs since January 15 a day earlier. This happened against the background of data on consumer inflation in the United States and the results of the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.At the last Fed meeting, the rate was kept at 5.5%. However, investors were particularly interested in the revised forecasts for the rate movement, which now show a decrease to 5.13% by the end of 2024, while previous estimates suggested a decrease to 4.60%. By the end of next year, it is expected to decrease to 4.13%, which is higher than the previously expected 3.90%. Current interest rate futures predict an even deeper decline of 46 basis points before the end of the year. At the same time, the May consumer price index showed a decrease from 3.4% to 3.3% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0% on a monthly basis, while the base index decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, which is lower than forecasts of 3.5%.Weak national macroeconomic statistics also have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar: the volume of retail sales carried out using electronic cards fell by 1.6% year-on-year in May after a decrease of 3.8% earlier, and decreased from -0.4% to -1.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6175, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6082.Cryptocurrency market overviewThe quotes of the SOL/USD pair continue to weaken, aiming for a support level around 145.00, which has developed since last summer.The opinions of cryptocurrency market analysts differ: some experts suggest that the SEC's positive decision on applications for the creation of spot Ethereum ETFs may contribute to the launch of a similar fund based on Solana, which will support the growth of the value of SOL/USD. At the same time, other experts point to judicial decisions regarding the Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, where the SOL token was classified as a security, which may become an obstacle to its trading, although cases against Solana Labs have not been initiated.During this period, the company is strengthening control over the activities of validators: 30 operators were excluded from the delegation program for violations, having lost the opportunity to receive rewards for participating in the verification of transactions in the blockchain. According to CoinDesk, some bots were used for manipulation on decentralized financial platforms. In March, in the wake of the surge in popularity of meme tokens on Solana, Jito Labs temporarily disabled the mempool to prevent "sandwich attacks", but then activity increased again in private pools. Tim Garcia, who oversees the work with validators at Solana, confirmed that the company will continue to combat abuse by identifying and terminating cooperation with operators involved in unfair practices.Resistance levels: 159.60, 183.40.Support levels: 145.20, 121.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing moderate growth, holding near the $82.00 per barrel mark.This increase is supported by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which global oil demand will reach 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 1 million barrels more than in 2023. In the following years, the agency expects further growth in demand: up to 104.2 million barrels in 2025 and up to 105.0 million barrels per day in 2026. In parallel, the IEA predicts an increase in capital investments in the development of extractive capacities: after $ 538.0 billion was invested in this area in 2023, it is expected that in 2024 these investments will increase by at least 7%. This is especially true for non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States.Resistance levels: 82.90, 85.10.Support levels: 81.10, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14 EUR/USD: Germany's April CPI is in line with analytical forecastsDuring the morning trading session in Asia, the EUR/USD pair showed fluctuating movements, remaining near the 1.0785 level. Investors remain cautious, refraining from active trading until the publication of important economic data from the United States and the eurozone.In April, German inflation was in line with expectations, noting an increase of 0.5% and confirming an annual rate of 2.2%, which is consistent with economists' forecasts. The harmonized consumer price index, adapted to EU standards, showed an acceleration from 2.3% to 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, the Spanish consumer price index may increase from 3.2% to 3.3%. Important data on eurozone GDP for the first quarter are expected on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2), forecasts indicate stability of the indicator at the level of 0.3% quarterly and 0.4% annual growth. The market's attention will also be focused on the indicators of industrial production, which, according to forecasts, may show a decrease of 0.2% in monthly dynamics after the previous growth of 0.8%, and an improvement in the annual index from -6.4% to -1.8%.Resistance levels: 1.0810, 1.0890.Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0660.AUD/USD: Australian authorities predict a decrease in inflation by the yearThe AUD/USD pair is slightly losing ground, stabilizing near the 0.6600 level. Amid the lack of significant news, the market is in a state of expectation, where investors are weighing their steps ahead of key events, especially in the United States, where inflation data for April is expected to be published tomorrow.In Australia, data on the state of the labor market for April will be announced on May 16: analysts predict an increase in employment by 23.7 thousand people, after a decrease of 6.6 thousand in the previous month. At the same time, it is assumed that unemployment will increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. The presentation of the budget plan is also in the focus of investors' attention today. According to recent forecasts, inflation should fall to 3.75% by mid-2024 and to 2.75% by mid-2025, re-entering the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range. However, the authorities said last Sunday that it is expected that the overall inflation rate could reach 2.0-3.0% by the end of this year, while representatives of the RBA believe that the indicator may remain at 3.6% in the first quarter and rise to 3.8% by June. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers stressed that the budget will pay special attention to measures to counter price pressures that have a significant impact on the cost of living of the population.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.Cryptocurrency market overviewLast week, the ETH/USD rate continued to decline, following the general trend of the market, under the influence of both monetary and regulatory factors that put pressure on other key assets. Investors are expressing concern about the possible continuation of high rates by the US Federal Reserve System until the end of the year, despite the slowdown in the labor market. US inflation data for April, which will be published on Wednesday, is expected to show a decrease in the index, but this is unlikely to change the strict position of the regulator.ETH is also under additional pressure from the uncertainty surrounding future decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Soon, on May 23 and 24, the deadline for reviewing applications from VanEck and ARK Invest for the creation of spot funds based on ETH expires, but forecasts regarding a positive result are disappointing. Unlike previous cases of approval of bitcoin ETFs, there is no information about consultations between the regulator and representatives of interested companies, which may lead to a possible postponement or refusal to consider applications for ETH ETFs until the autumn. In addition, there are signs that the American authorities have begun to consider ETH as an unregistered security and are collecting information about the activities of its developers. In this context, the co-founder of Ethereum, Joseph Lubin, pointed out that the SEC had actually reclassified ETH as an illegal asset without notifying the public.Resistance levels: 3125.00, 3281.25, 3437.50.Support levels: 2812.50, 2500.00, 2187.50.Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes. Some support for prices is provided by the anticipation of the publication of the OPEC report, scheduled for today at 13:00 GMT+2. At the same time, many investors refrain from opening new positions, preferring to wait for the US inflation data, which are expected tomorrow at 14:30 at the same time.In the context of the expected OPEC report, market participants hope to find out updated forecasts for oil production volumes. For example, since the beginning of the year, several countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have initiated voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day in order to maintain market stability. Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair expressed Iraq's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, but pointed out difficulties with its implementation, doubting the possibility of extending current production restrictions. Traders also expect information about the situation in the Middle East, which could lead to significant supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. The upcoming OPEC meeting is scheduled for June 1, and according to analysts, there are no changes in production plans. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand in 2024 will reach a record of more than 103 million barrels per day.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15
AUD/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15 AUD/USD: pair has approached the support zone of 0.6489–0.6447During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching the important support zone of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of American statistics.Last week was marked by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market. The US consumer price index in March showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%, and the annual index was 3.5%, also higher than the predicted 3.4%. The producer price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, from the previous 1.6%, although analysts expected an increase to 2.2%, while the monthly index decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The core inflation rate rose from 2.1% to 2.4%, while the forecast was 2.3%. These data have increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June.The Australian economy also showed weak results: the number of construction permits issued fell by 1.9% monthly, which is in line with forecasts, while the previous figure was revised from -1.0% to -2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.Gold market analysisThe price of gold has stabilized around the level of 2350.00. Last week, gold reached a historic high, rising to the level of 2430.00, however, the bulls failed to hold this position, and many traders decided to realize the accumulated profits.The rise in gold prices continues to be supported by geopolitical instability and forecasts for rate cuts by the world's largest central banks. The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy later, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points expected in September.The latest macroeconomic data from the United States, published on April 12, increased pressure on the US dollar. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 79.4 to 77.9 points in April, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 79.0 points. The March import price index increased by 0.4%, accelerating by 0.1% compared to February, and on an annual basis the indicator also increased by 0.4% after a noticeable decrease of 0.8% a month earlier. Today, traders will closely monitor the March retail sales statistics in the United States, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from February figures. The April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also be published, an improvement from -20.9 to -9.0 points is projected.Resistance levels: 2375.00, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Cryptocurrency market analysisThe price dynamics of bitcoin tried to rise, breaking the 72000.00 level, but by the end of the week it fell sharply, losing about 14.5% of its value due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Over the weekend, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israel, which led to investor fears about the possible outbreak of a large-scale military conflict, which, in turn, contributed to the reorientation of investments in defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar. This downward trend affected not only Bitcoin, but also the wide cryptocurrency market, where in a few days there were liquidations of open positions totaling about $2.5 billion. In addition, the pressure on digital assets was influenced by monetary policy, as the chances of continued high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve increased amid renewed inflationary pressures.These events lowered the price of Bitcoin to a six-week low of 60400.00, after which its partial recovery began. Traders are returning to the market, hoping that there will be no further escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, according to representatives of American diplomacy. In this context, a possible resumption of growth of the main cryptocurrency assets, supported by the expectation of an upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network, seems quite likely in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.Crude Oil market analysisAfter rising to 92.42 on Friday, Brent crude oil quotes are experiencing a correction to 89.85 amid reports that the Iranian attack on Sunday caused minimal damage to Israel's infrastructure.Last week, after aggressive statements by Iranian leaders, the price of oil exceeded 92.00, as market participants feared the expansion of the armed conflict beyond the region. On Sunday, more than 300 rockets and drones were fired at Israel, most of which were successfully shot down by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "True Promise" mission has been completed and no further attacks are planned. According to him, Iran adheres to the principles of the UN Charter and is not interested in escalating the conflict. Against this background, the quotes of Brent Crude Oil moved to a decrease.The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains difficult, which may lead to high volatility in the oil market in the coming months. Given that Iran is a significant oil producer in OPEC with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, the risks of supply interruption associated with sanctions and potential retaliatory actions by Israel contribute to the fact that the current price decline is rather corrective.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and cryptocurrencies for Monday, March 11
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and cryptocurrencies for Monday, March 11 EUR/USD: pair expects new incentives for further movementThe EUR/USD currency pair shows uncertain dynamics, fluctuating around 1.0940. Trader activity remains moderate, in anticipation of new economic insights after recent data.Last Friday, investors carefully studied information about the reduction in annual growth in German industrial production in January to 5.5% and saw an improvement in the monthly indicator by 1.0%, which may indicate an early overcoming of economic stagnation. The producer price index in Germany showed a slight increase and a slowdown in the decrease at an annual level, ahead of forecasts, which complements positive expectations for the economy. Similarly, the announced eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter confirmed stagnation and slight annual growth, fitting in with analysts' expectations.In the United States, a recent employment report in February indicated a marked excess of expectations for the number of jobs created, although average wages declined slightly, which may indicate a weakening of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, reinforces speculation about the imminent transition of the Federal Reserve System to a more lenient monetary policy, pushing the dollar lower in the face of a possible reduction in borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 1.0964, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0930, 1.0900, 1.0866, 1.0838.GBP/USD: mixed data from the US labor market did not strengthen the dollarDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair shows mixed activity, stabilizing around 1.2850. Investors are cautious in making new decisions, but the British pound retains the potential to strengthen against the background of positive economic data.A recent Halifax report indicated a decrease in the growth rate of house prices to 0.4% per month and to 1.7% per year, foreshadowing a possible improvement in the overall economic climate. Ahead of the upcoming announcement of labor market data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%, while the number of applications for unemployment benefits may increase and wage growth may decrease slightly. Special attention was drawn to the budget plan of Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, which focuses on key economic indicators and anticipates that the Bank of England will be one of the last among the leading central banks to start lowering interest rates, postponing this decision possibly until August after the Fed and the ECB begin their adjustments in June.Resistance levels: 1.2890, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2700.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is gaining momentum within the growing 0.6650–0.6550 corridorDuring the Asian trading period, the Australian dollar hovers around 0.6612, experiencing a correction after a sharp rise last week, stimulated by Australian economic reports.The data shows that exports increased by 1.6%, while imports fell from 4% to 1.3%, which contributed to the growth of the trade balance from 10.743 billion to 11.027 billion Australian dollars.The upcoming information on the state of the real estate market, scheduled for publication tomorrow at 02:30 GMT+2, will clarify the situation of one of the most lagging sectors of the country's economy: it is expected that the number of building permits will improve to -1.0% from the previous -10.1%, although the forecast for the construction of private houses suggests a decrease of -9.9% compared to -0.5% in the previous period. These expectations imply that the further dynamics of the currency instrument will depend on the behavior of the US dollar, which, after falling in the middle of last week, has now stabilized around 102.50 in the USDX index, despite the mixed data on Friday. At the same time, data on average hourly wages, which showed a decrease from 0.5% to 0.1% on a monthly basis and from 4.4% to 4.3% year-on-year, did not meet investors' expectations. At the same time, the number of jobs in the non—agricultural sector increased from 229,000 to 275,000, and in the private sector from 177,000 to 223,000.Resistance levels: 0.6630, 0.6690.Support levels: 0.6580, 0.6500.Cryptocurrency market analysisDuring recent trading, the BTC/USD pair has shown impressive growth, consolidating at a level exceeding 7000.00, and is currently hovering around historically high values around 71500.00. This rise allowed the currency to overcome the effects of the recent significant correction to the level of 59200.00. The rise of the cryptocurrency is due to both the upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network in April and possible changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System.Bitcoin market activity is increasing in anticipation of halving, which, combined with the achievement of record price levels, stimulates increased demand for this cryptocurrency. Last week, as noted by Santiment, a decrease in the volume of large transactions over $ 100.0 thousand was recorded, while the number of market participants with relatively small investments continues to increase, reaching, according to Glassnode, a historical maximum of 35.0 million addresses.Resistance levels: 75000.00, 81250.00, 87500.00.Support levels: 61150.00, 56250.00, ...

Articles about financial markets

There was a successful merger of the Ethereum Ropsten test network with Beacon
Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, There was a successful merger of the Ethereum Ropsten test network with Beacon Today, on June 9, Ethereum developers informed the community about the successful merger of the oldest Ethereum Ropsten test network using the Proof-of-Work algorithm with the Beacon test network using the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm, which was one of the final test steps before the full update of the Ethereum 2.0 network.Repeated testing of the chain with Proof-of-Stake, according to the developers, will allow for a secure merger of the existing blockchain with a new version of the block network and obtain a single effective Erhereum blockchain that will not have existing problems and will open the way for the introduction of innovative ideas in the development of a decentralized financial system and the digital economy as a whole.Before the full launch of Ethereum 2.0 with the deployment of PoS, two more mergers of the Beacon network with the Goerli and Seoplia test networks are planned.The final implementation of PoS in the Ethereum blockchain, according to co-founder Vitalik Buterin, should take place in August of this year.The market reacted sluggishly to the technologically important event that took place, and investors did not show high purchasing activity.Ethereum is trading at around $1,800 with no spikes in volatility.The acute foreign policy and macroeconomic situation today has a greater impact on the mood of investors seeking to preserve their capital than the prospect of future income.Therefore, analysts do not predict a surge in volatility even with the full completion of the Ethereum 2.0 update. Volatility may arise, perhaps, only if problems arise in the network that can affect user ...
You can pay with cryptocurrency: which companies accept crypto in 2022
Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Visa, stock, MasterCard, stock, Coca-Cola, stock, PayPal, stock, Shopify, stock, You can pay with cryptocurrency: which companies accept crypto in 2022 The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that bitcoin is impractical as a means of payment. While cryptocurrencies are not being calculated massively. But today, large companies not only use blockchain, but also accept crypto as payment:Coca-Cola. In 2020, the corporation's Asia-Pacific division announced that it would allow customers in Australia and New Zealand to buy drinks with bitcoin and other coins. Payment is available through devices that accept digital payments.PayPal is the first payment system to add cryptocurrency for transactions. The company acts as an intermediary: the service will exchange cryptocurrency for ordinary dollars at the internal exchange rate, which already includes the cost of conversion.Visa and Mastercard, following PayPal, thought about the possibility of conducting transactions with cryptocurrencies. The systems focus on stablecoins, which have collateral in the form of real assets.Shopify is a platform for creating online stores. Thanks to the developers, the owners of these stores can accept cryptocurrency.Emirates. The airline from the UAE intends to accept bitcoins as payment. Moreover, Emirates will add its own NFT tokens to the site. This is not the first airline operating with cryptocurrencies. Latvian airBaltic has been selling tickets for the crypt for several years.Balenciaga, Gucci, Tag Heuer are also starting to accept cryptocurrency. Moreover, the new payment method will be available not only online, but also in regular stores using QR codes. And the first major retailer that started accepting the crypt was Overstock.Brazilian developer Gafisa announced that now an apartment can be bought for bitcoins. So the company wants to attract investors from other countries, and the cryptocurrency helps to transfer funds quickly and ...
Madeira "accepts" Bitcoin. What does this mean for the archipelago and the crypto industry?
Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Madeira \ Speaking at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, the president of the autonomous region of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque, made several ambitious statements about the prospects of Bitcoin on the islands."I believe in the future and I believe in Bitcoin," Albuquerque said.He recalled that de facto, Bitcoin is already a legal means of payment on the island, since individuals in Madeira are not subject to capital gains tax when buying and selling bitcoins.The regional corporate tax rate on business on the islands is only 5% — one of the lowest in Europe, which is extremely beneficial for cryptocurrency startups.The President also met with MicroStrategy CEO Michael Taylor. He recommended that he "focus on Bitcoin. Everything else is garbage."Madeira is part of Portugal, which attracts crypto enthusiasts with its zero interest rates on cryptocurrency ...
Cryptocurrency is allowed in Cuba. Will it save from an eternal crisis?
Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Cryptocurrency is allowed in Cuba. Will it save from an eternal crisis? On May 16, the Central Bank of Cuba will begin issuing licenses for the use of cryptocurrencies in economic activities. The authorities are going to allow the cryptocurrency because of the consequences of the coronacrisis and US sanctions, which have been destroying the country's economy for 60 years.Cuba is a "passing prize"The first settlements on the island were founded by Spanish colonists in the early 16th century and ruled for almost three centuries. Then the metropolis brought African slaves and began to use the land for sugar cane and tobacco – the "oil" of that time.Cuba received relative freedom only at the end of the 19th century after an uprising of local residents and a long war for independence. Spain lost its influence in the Caribbean region, and the United States took its place. Nominally, the United States developed the economy and industry of Cuba, investing hundreds of millions, and then billions of dollars. In fact, they used it as a semi-colony: troops could enter at any moment, local authorities and production controlled it.Before World War I, about 90% of Cuba's exports were tobacco and sugar. Most of the agricultural territories were given over to them. Products for domestic consumption had to be imported – there were not enough of their own. At the same time, companies from the United States received privileges and imported goods to Cuba without duties.The country's economy suffered severely during the First and Second World Wars: first, the flow of goods from Europe stopped, then pro-American officials banned exports from the Soviet Union. As a result of the crisis, the poor could not get vital things, and the elite lived in comfort and luxury.In 1940, President Fulgencio Batista came to power – later he would be called a puppet of the United States. Under Batista, the capital of Cuba, Havana, became the "Latin American Las Vegas." The business was controlled by American monopolies and mafia clans. Businessmen from the United States owned 90% of the mining industry, 80% of utilities and fuel companies and half of sugar production. Batista received millions in bribes, and America turned a blind eye to numerous crimes: from the organization of brothels to drug and human trafficking.13 years later, a group of revolutionaries led by Fidel Castro rebelled against Batista. Impoverished and intimidated by the authorities, people joined the fight against tyranny. Castro promised to distribute land to peasants, ensure independence from the United States and improve the financial situation of Cubans. The resistance has been active for almost six years. A guerrilla war has begun in Cuba. By 1959, Castro's forces were able to capture the capital, and Batista lost control of the state and fled to the Dominican Republic. At the same time, the former dictator took most of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Cuba."Friendship against the USA"The Castro government reformed the economy and nationalized most of the companies owned by Batista supporters. 60% of agricultural land was transferred to peasants, the rest went to the state. The authorities began to control the turnover of currencies and trade. Residents of the United States were forced to pay 100% tax on luxury goods and 25% on minerals.In response, the U.S. government stopped importing oil to Cuba and reduced the sugar trade. An economic war has begun between the countries. Castro continued to nationalize American companies, and the United States imposed an embargo: they stopped trading with the Island of Freedom, and any country that provided assistance to Cuba fell under sanctions.The USSR took advantage of the situation. The Soviets gave the Castro government $100 million in loans at 2.5% per annum. Specialists in geological exploration, builders and the military were brought to Cuba. The USSR provided the new ally with equipment, weapons and agricultural products, and in return received sugar, coffee, minerals and representation in the Caribbean. During the period of active trade with the Union, Cuba's economy grew. In the 80s, the country began to build solar and wind power plants, recycle recyclables. Over 20 years of cooperation, Cuba has turned into an industrial and agrarian power. But its economy continued to depend on its "curse" – cane sugar.At the same time, the United States declared Cuba a "sponsor of terrorism" and tightened the embargo again. However, by this time the diplomats were able to establish trade with Latin American countries. Uruguay, Argentina and Venezuela became new partners."Island of freedom" without UnionCuba's economy began to collapse after 1991. Despite diplomatic ties with Latin American and Caribbean countries, the country was dependent on the Soviet Union and still suffered from US sanctions. When the USSR collapsed, the Castro government had to switch to economy mode: there was nowhere to bring equipment and cheap oil in exchange for local goods. The sugar industry became the basis of the economy again, but tourism began to develop in Cuba in parallel.The United States has adopted additional sanctions. Now foreign companies trading with the "disgraced" country were threatened with restrictions. In Cuba, there was a shortage of food and medicines, interruptions in the supply of fuel and spare parts for equipment. GDP began to decrease. During the three years of the crisis, it has decreased by a third. To compensate for the losses, Cuba was looking for foreign partners and investments. Three free economic zones were organized on the island and part of the trade bans were lifted. The government began to create a socialist economy with elements of market relations. State-owned enterprises have introduced self-financing.The first effect of the reforms in Cuba was felt in 2001. Up to this point, the country's economy was shrinking by an average of 3-7% per year, and after that it began to grow. The country has reduced the state monopoly on foreign trade and began to recognize cooperative, private and mixed forms of ownership. After 2010, the government allowed local entrepreneurs to work and introduced a progressive taxation system. Cuba began to actively trade with countries that were less dependent on America. In particular, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez supplied up to 53,000 barrels of oil to the island daily, in response Cuba sent teachers, doctors and engineers to the new partner. By 2013, about 100,000 Cubans were working in Venezuela. One of the important sectors for the economy has become "medical internationalism". Local doctors started working all over the world.Hurricanes, COVID and new sanctionsCuba still continues to suffer because of the US blockade. The damage has already exceeded $104 billion. And taking into account the depreciation of the US currency — up to $ 1 trillion. After America imposed sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba's main partner began to have serious problems. They were reflected, among other things, on the Cubans. If earlier it was profitable to work in an oil-rich country, then after the Venezuelan crisis, this market almost closed. In addition, interruptions in oil supplies began.The country's economy was also affected by Hurricanes Dennis and Wilma in 2005, Gustav and Ike in 2008, Sandy in 2012. Each of them disabled infrastructure facilities, destroyed buildings and destroyed crops. The military had to deal with the consequences of natural disasters.Another serious blow was the coronavirus pandemic. Many medical professionals were working abroad when COVID was discovered in Cuba. And local doctors lacked medical equipment: there were many elderly people living in the country who were at risk. Officially, the country has coped with the crisis: it was able to introduce an effective system of protection against coronavirus, developed its own vaccines and started immunization. More than 5 million Cubans have been vaccinated against COVID-19. At the same time, the Cuban economy was in a precarious position: the flow of tourists dried up, and investment declined.Dinner for two for a month's salaryNow the "Island of Freedom" has a single currency – the Cuban peso (CUP). $1 = 23.98 CUP or 70-100 CUP at the "street rate". The authorities ask tourists to exchange American currency for euros in advance – banks do not accept and do not exchange USD.The average salary in Cuba for the last 4 years is about $33-45. At the same time:a kilogram of vegetables, a large loaf of bread or a bottle of water cost $0.5;a dozen eggs – $0.7;a liter of gasoline – $1;payment for communal services – $5-10;unlimited internet – more than $100 per month;dinner for two in a restaurant for tourists – up to $25;economy class car rental - $20;1 sq.m. of housing – from $1,500 to $5,000, in tourist areas – higher.Tourists and journalists who have visited Cuba note that it has become unprofitable to work in local industries. Most people live at the expense of relatives who have gone to work in other countries. It is enough to send $50-100 per month to provide for the family.Cubans themselves believe that the authorities have begun to resemble the "puppet government" of Batista. On the islands, "two parallel Cubes" coexist again: elites and Latin American businessmen live in luxury, and ordinary people are forced to live in shacks or sit on the necks of those who left the "Island of ...
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