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Trading signals and online forecasts AUD/USD

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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Monday, April 8th
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Monday, April 8th EUR/USD: Euro stabilizes near the 1.0830 levelDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair shows consolidation near the 1.0830 level. After moderate growth on Friday, the euro moved to a decline by the end of the week, helped by new data on the American labor market.March statistics showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector to 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the previous figure of 270 thousand and analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 200 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while the average hourly wage accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and decreased from 4.3% to 4.1% on an annual basis. Despite the strengthening of the labor market, this may force the US Federal Reserve to continue its cautious monetary policy.Meanwhile, European economic indicators released on Friday were below expectations. Production orders in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% after falling by 11.4% a month earlier, falling short of the projected level of 0.8%. Retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% compared with zero change in January, while a decrease of 0.4% was expected. The annual sales dynamics improved from -0.9% to -0.7%, ahead of forecasts of -1.3%. These weak indicators reflect the pressure that inflation and high interest rates from the European Central Bank are putting on consumer demand and household budgets.Resistance levels: 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.USD/JPY: the head of the Central Bank of Japan assessed the prospects for the growth of national inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair showed a bullish trend, reaching the level of 151.82 after Friday's data, which increased investors' doubts about the possibility of lowering rates by the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting. The report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector by 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 200 thousand, and a revision of February data from 275 thousand to 270 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while analysts did not expect changes, and the average hourly wage rose from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, although it slowed from 4.3% to 4.1% year-on-year.Friday's data from Japan was mixed: household spending decreased by 0.5% after falling by 6.3% a month earlier, against expectations of a decline of 3.0%. The index of leading indicators rose from 108.5 to 111.8 points, exceeding expectations of 111.6 points, while the index of matching indicators fell from 112.1 to 110.9 points. Recently published data showed an improvement in the balance of payments from 457 billion yen to 2444.2 billion yen, below the forecast of 3112.5 billion yen, and average wages increased from 1.5% to 1.8%, which may affect inflation expectations. The Eco Watchers index on the current situation fell from 51.3 to 49.8 points, and the forecast of events decreased from 53 to 51.2 points.Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said last week that inflation could accelerate by autumn due to wage growth, the highest in the last 33 years, agreed with trade unions last month. Investors took this as a signal of a possible interest rate adjustment, recalling that on March 19, the rate was raised for the first time since 2016 from -0.10% to a range of 0.00%-0.10%. Ueda stressed that the 2.0% inflation target has not yet been reached, and that high import costs continue to affect prices, while the weakening yen may become an additional factor influencing any decision to increase borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.50, 153.00, 153.50.Support levels: 151.50, 151.00, 150.50, 150.00.USD/CAD: the Bank of Canada considers the anonymity of the CBDC the key to the success of the digital currencyDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is actively testing the 1.3600 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark. The end of last week was marked by exceeding this limit and updating the November highs, although by Friday the pair had declined, despite the positive data from the American macroeconomics.On the other hand, the employment situation in Canada turned out to be less favorable: the number of jobs decreased by 2.2 thousand, while an increase of 40.7 thousand was previously recorded, and an increase of 25.0 thousand was predicted. The unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.9%, and the average hourly wage increased from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, the March Ivey business activity index rose from 53.9 to 57.5 points, exceeding analysts' expectations of 54.2 points.A Bank of Canada report titled "CBDC: Banking and Anonymity" highlights that privacy will be an important aspect for users with the possible introduction of the digital Canadian dollar. It will also attract the attention of banks, which may consider not including such transactions in financial statements, thereby creating problems for regulators when assessing the creditworthiness of companies. In turn, commercial banks may seek to reduce the anonymity of the digital currency to reduce credit risks, which will require stricter credit standards to achieve balance.Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.AUD/USD: Australia's industrial sector continues to be under pressureThe AUD/USD currency pair remains stable at 0.6576, as it was last week, against the background of a temporary weakening of the US dollar and optimistic economic data from Australia.In February, an increase in the total amount of new housing loans was recorded by 1.2%, and an annual comparison showed an increase of 21.5%. During the month, the number of loans issued to owners renting housing increased by 0.9%, while loans for the purchase of new housing increased by 4.3%. The cost of loans for new tenants was 9.1% higher than in February of the previous year, and 20.7% more for first-time home buyers. However, exports decreased from 1.5% to -2.2%, and imports increased from 1.4% to 4.8%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 10.058 billion Australian dollars to 7.280 billion. These data reflect ongoing pressure on the industrial sector, but also point to the potential for increased domestic consumption.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6550, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver for Thursday, April 4, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver for Thursday, April 4, 2024 EUR/USD: trend line analysisDuring morning trading in Asia, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to grow, reaching 1.0844, maintaining the positive trend of the last day.The published economic indicators had a limited impact on the pair's movement. In March, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 0.8% month-on-month, leading to a decrease in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.4%. The core index excluding the cost of food and energy dropped to 2.9% from 3.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%. It is expected that additional data on production inflation for February, which will be published at 11:00 GMT, will show a decrease in the producer price index by -0.7% month-on-month and by -8.6% year-on-year, confirming the stability of previous values. The March figures also indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 2.4% and an increase in monthly inflation to 0.8%, with a decrease in the base index to 2.9% year-on-year, but with an increase to 1.1% month-on-month.Resistance levels: 1.0924, 1.1033.Support levels: 1.0807, 1.0732.NZD/USD: the US dollar remains stable without forming a trendIn the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate has been rising, holding near the 0.6028 level due to the weakening of the USD.Statistics from New Zealand show an increase in permits for the construction of new homes in February by 2,795 thousand or 6% compared to last year. Among these, 1,297 thousand permits were issued for the construction of individual houses (a decrease of 0.5%), and 1,498 thousand for apartment buildings (a decrease of 10%). However, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, the total number of building permits increased by 15%, while a decrease of -8.6% was recorded in January. Separately, there is a decrease in the commodity price index according to ANZ Group in March by -1.3% after an increase of 3.6% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6050, 0.6130.Support levels: 0.5990, 0.5920.AUD/USD: RBA introduces measures to increase banks' liquidityThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a noticeable upward trend, overcoming the level of 0.6585 and updating the highs reached on March 21, thanks to the upward correction that began on Tuesday.The Australian dollar is strengthening against the background of the latest macroeconomic data from the country: the March index of business activity in the services sector, measured by the Commonwealth Bank, rose from 53.5 to 54.4, and the overall economic index improved from 52.4 to 53.3. At the same time, data on construction permits in February showed mixed results: annual growth accelerated from 4.8% to 5.2%, but the monthly figure decreased by 1.9%, despite expectations of growth of 3.3% after the previous fall of 2.5%.Chris Kent, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), announced plans to introduce an innovative method of maintaining the liquidity of financial institutions, including conducting REPO operations on the open market at rates close to the target level through full-coverage auctions. This measure is designed to support the banking sector, which was actively supplied with cash during the pandemic, in the face of reduced reserves due to repayment of emergency loans, thereby minimizing the risks of unforeseen volatility and market disruptions.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6616, 0.6638, 0.6667.Support levels: 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540, 0.6524.Silver market analysisThe value of silver is experiencing a slight drop, moving away from the peak values of June 2021, reached at the beginning of afternoon trading on Thursday, while the asset is checking the level of 27.00 for a possible further decline. Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of the March report on the state of the US labor market, which is expected at the end of the week and may provide new information about a potential reduction in loan rates by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).The market is also focused on the consequences of the recent speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who, according to expectations, stressed the need for a detailed analysis of economic data to confirm a steady decline in the inflation rate to the 2% target. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to make decisions, given the continued stability of the American economy. Current forecasts tend to expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as early as June, with a probability slightly above 50%, which causes some analysts to argue about the possible postponement of the change in the regulator's approach to a later date.On the eve of these events, the growth of the asset was hindered by the latest macroeconomic data from the United States from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) concerning employment in the private sector: March figures showed an increase of 184 thousand, which exceeded both the previous month with its 155 thousand and the projected 148 thousand.Resistance levels: 27.33, 27.60, 28.00, 28.29.Support levels: 27.00, 26.57, 26.19, ...
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27 EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in GermanyThe EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peakWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, ...
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Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, March 27, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, March 27, 2024 The consumer price index in Australia increased by 3.4% in February (YoY), which slightly exceeded forecasts of 3.3%. The price increase is due to an increase in the cost of insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food (+3.6%). A decrease in prices was observed for meat, meat products and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and cultural events (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar index has stabilized after yesterday's correction and is trading at 104.00. Investors are responding positively to reports on basic durable goods orders, which increased by 0.5% in February, as well as an increase in total orders by 1.4%. The Conference Board consumer confidence index, reflecting the opinion of American households about the current and future economic situation, amounted to 104.7 points, which is slightly worse than the previous value of 104.8 points.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisOn the daily chart, AUD/USD develops a correction, breaking through the lower boundary of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6630–0.6530.Technical indicators confirm the sell signal: the fast moving averages on the alligator are located below the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator indicator forms descending bars, moving away from the zero level into the sales zone.It is recommended to open short positions after the price has decreased and consolidated below the level of 0.6510. The target is at 0.6440. We will set the stop loss level at 0.6550.Purchases should be considered after the growth and consolidation of the pair above the level of 0.6560. The buyers' target is 0.6630. We will set the stop loss at ...
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