AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...
AUD/USD: developing a bullish momentumAUD/USD currency pair continues to grow actively, forming a strong upward momentum, which began yesterday. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6615, breaking through upwards, making new local highs since May 23. Such growth is due to the vulnerability of the U.S. currency, which is declining at the end of the current week.The weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia has almost no significant impact on the active growth of the instrument today. The index of trade conditions declined by 1.5% in the first quarter after the previous increase by 1.8%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts. Mortgage loan originations fell 3.8% in April after rising 5.5% the previous month, while analysts had expected a 3.0% decline. Investment borrowing for construction also declined 0.9% after a previous increase of 3.7%. Commerce Secretary Don Farrell said he will continue to consult on a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, negotiations on which began back in 2018. This agreement aims to establish a fair partnership for local producers and exporters. The official praised the benefits of access for Australian products to the European market, as it promotes national economic growth, investment, job creation and higher wages.Resistance levels: 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6590, 0.6563, 0.6530, 0.6489.USD/CHF: yesterday's publications have not changed the dynamics of the instrumentDuring the Asian session, the pair USD/CHF continues to decline, following the downward impulse, which was formed earlier, and is testing the level of 0.9040.Investors revise their forecasts on the future actions of the US Federal Reserve and assume that the interest rate will not reach the 5.0% level before the end of the year. In their speeches at the two-day meeting on June 13-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (FRB) President Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson, FRB board member, spoke in favor of not tightening monetary policy. In addition, the U.S. Senate passed by a majority a bill that eliminates the national debt limit until 2025 and provides for cuts in government spending. The document must now be signed by President Joe Biden.Macroeconomic statistics released Thursday had little effect on the trade instrument, with Swiss exports falling from 27.031 million francs in March to 19.902 million francs in April and imports falling from 22.505 million francs to 17.302 million francs. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 4.526 million francs to 2.601 million francs, below analysts' average forecast of 3.822 million francs.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150 and 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.EUR/USD: the single currency shows a correctionThe currency pair EUR/USD showed insignificant growth, developing the corrective movement, which was formed the day before. Currently, the instrument is consolidating at the level of 1.0770, with the possibility of a break-up, updating the local highs since May 24. Activity in the market remains relatively low, as traders are waiting for the May report on the US labor market, which will affect the decision of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on the interest rate. At the moment the probability of the monetary policy tightening at the regulator's meeting on June 14 is 24.0%, while at the beginning of the week it exceeded 40.0%.Data from the U.S. also put additional pressure on the U.S. currency. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in May decreased from 47.1 points to 46.9 points, which was lower than the expected 47.0 points, and the index of new orders declined from 45.7 points to 42.6 points, which was significantly lower than the forecasted 44.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0768, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0725, 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600.USD/CAD: investors note the stable Canadian economyDuring the trading session in Asia, the pair USD/CAD shows a correction at 1.3416. The Canadian currency strongly strengthened the previous day, climbing more than 110.0 points against the U.S. dollar, influenced by two key factors.Firstly, the Canadian economy report had a positive impact: gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.0% in March, leading to a quarterly increase of 0.8% compared to the expected 0.4%. The annual GDP figure thus rose to 2.21% from the previous value of 2.07%, virtually eliminating the risks of a recession in the economy.Resistance levels: 1.3490 and 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3400, ...
EUR/USD: euro is decliningThe EUR/USD is displaying multidirectional sentiment in the pair, testing the 1.0700 level and the local low of March 20. Investors are keeping low trading activity after the holiday the day before.Meanwhile the economists are estimating the recession in the German economy negatively, which may affect the stability of the European Union participants. Recall that the day before the publication the statistics on the national gross domestic product reflected the decrease to -0.2% from 0.3% against the market expectations of 0.2%, while the quarterly value remained negative to -0.3% from -0.4% against analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. Bloomberg experts see the reason for the low pace in failed energy policy and a slow transition to new technology.Resistance levels: 1.0725, 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850.Support levels: 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.USD/CHF: US dollar is getting strongerIn the morning session the USD/CHF is making up for the losses incurred from the two-day correction and traded at 0.9060, waiting for new impetus to develop further dynamics.Market participants' optimism supported the instrument, as traders noted positively the agreement on the US sovereign debt. Thus, at the end of last weekend, President Joe Biden confirmed the information about the success of the negotiations, where the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, acted as the second party. If Congress approves the bill by the end of the week, the United States will be able to avoid default and investors will shift their attention back to the Fed's strategy on monetary parameters.Today, May 30, the Swiss gross domestic product for Q1 and the index of leading indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute are scheduled to be published. Analysts expect the annual economy to correct to 0.6% from 0.8% but the quarterly economy to strengthen by 0.1%. The day before the dynamics were expected to be zero.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.AUD/USD: the Australian currency has resumed its declineTrading pair AUD/USD is dominated by the "bears", having lost the potential of upward dynamics of the last two sessions. The pair reached 0.6516 and continued to decline amid weak macroeconomic data from Australia.Thus, investors noted a sharp drop of 8.1% in the number of approved construction work orders for April, previously down 0.1% in March contrary to market expectations of a 2.0% growth, while the annual value has strengthened the negative trend to -24.1% from -17.3%, defying the average forecasts. Tomorrow the April revised Australian CPI data is scheduled for release and it is not expected to show significant correction to 6.1% according to the forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6563, 0.6590, 0.6635.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350.Oil market reviewAccording to the information from the trading floors, quotations of the North American light oil grade WTI are correcting in the downward dynamic at the mark 72.41.The day before the Secretary General of the cartel OPEC has held a conversation with reporters from the Iranian edition Shana, which was an opportunity to refute the desire of the organization to establish a fixed price for hydrocarbons, because exporters want to focus on the balance of supply and demand. Contrary to recent criticism of OPEC+ actions, the official spoke of the need to avoid populist rhetoric in the media, as the organization takes decisions on adjustments based solely on a fundamental analysis of market values and trends. In turn, the official expects the lifting of sanctions against official Tehran in the medium term, which will bring a significant amount of cheap raw materials to the world market and cap the resulting increased demand for oil and oil products.Resistance levels: 74.70, 80.60.Support levels: 70.30, ...
AUD/USD continues to decline on Thursday, approaching the support at 0.6650. Labor market report came out today in Australia, but it did not have any impact on the dynamics of the pair.Contrary to analysts' expectations, employment fell by 4.3 thousand jobs over the month, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%.The day before, wage data came out in Australia. The index rose 0.8% in the first quarter, which was 0.1% worse than forecast. On an annualized basis the index rose from 3.4% to 3.7% while the forecast was 3.6%. The index has alarmed investors as rapid wage growth will trigger a new round of inflation, which will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue its rate hike cycle.Technical Analysis AUD/USDBollinger Bands on the daily chart show weakly pronounced rally while MACD histogram has shifted into negative territory and the indicator shows a sell signal. Stochastic oscillator is flying around the 20% level.If the pair fixes below 0.6635, we will open short positions with Take Profit at 0.6563. Stop loss is placed at 0.6670.In case of a rebound from support at 0.6635 we wait for a break-down of resistance at 0.6670 and then buy with a target at 0.6728. Stop-loss in this case is placed at ...
USD/JPY: Die Fed wird aufgefordert, ihren hawkishen Kurs fortzusetzenDas Handelsinstrument USD/JPY verzeichnet eine moderate Stärkung und testet die Marke von 136,00. Der Vermögenswert genießt Unterstützung durch technische Faktoren und die Erwartungen der Anleger hinsichtlich weiterer Schritte der US-Notenbank.Die japanische Währung wiederum ist aufgrund der Politik der japanischen Zentralbank, die am Vortag eine Fortsetzung der neutralen geldpolitischen Parameter bestätigte, ohne Stimulus. Zuvor hatten führende Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an einer von Reuters initiierten Umfrage teilgenommen, wonach die Befragten einen Anstieg des Kerninflationsindex für den Verbraucher im April von 3,1 % auf 3,4 % erwarteten. Lohnerhöhungen und ein Anstieg der Preise für Konsumgüter und Dienstleistungen deuten darauf hin, dass solche Daten in naher Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit veröffentlicht werden. Unterdessen zeigten die zu Beginn der Woche veröffentlichten makroökonomischen Daten Japans für April einen Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise um 0,2 % gegenüber einem Nullstand im März, während die Erwartungen der Analysten bei 0,3 % lagen.Widerstandsniveaus: 136,50, 137,50, 138,50, 139,67.Unterstützungsniveaus: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: Seitwärtsdynamik innerhalb der Grenzen von 0,6820-0,6600Wie das Australian Bureau of Data in seinem veröffentlichten Baubericht für März mitteilte, ging die Gesamtzahl der genehmigten Baugenehmigungen gegenüber dem Februar um 0,1 % zurück, während der private Sektor um 2,8 % zurückging. Die Gesamtzahl für alle Immobilienkategorien sank um 5,9 % und für neue Wohngebäude um 6,4 %. Das Volumen der Anträge für den Bau von Nichtwohngebäuden ging um 5,1 % zurück. Analysten weisen darauf hin, dass die Daten zum Immobilienmarkt, die Hoffnungen auf eine Erholung im ersten Quartal geweckt hatten, nun ihre Abwärtskorrektur wieder aufgenommen haben, was die nationale Wirtschaft unter Druck gesetzt hat.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,6720 und 0,6820.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0,6600, 0,6470.GoldpreisDer "sichere Hafen" wird leicht höher gehandelt, wobei er seine Verluste aus dem schwachen Rückgang vom Vortag wieder wettmacht und die Marke von 2014,00 testet.Der mäßige Druck auf das Edelmetall wurde durch den Nachrichtenhintergrund des vergangenen Donnerstags und Freitags ausgeübt, als der US-Dollar erneut versuchte, seine Position zu stärken. Darüber hinaus wurde der Rückgang der Notierungen durch einen Anstieg der Zinssätze für US-Staatsanleihen und eine Überprüfung der Pläne der US-Notenbank zur weiteren Anpassung der Kosten für die Kreditaufnahme verursacht. Die Expertengemeinschaft erwartet weiterhin eine Nullreaktion auf den Zinssatz und eine Fortsetzung des Zielsatzes von 5,25 %, während die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Anhebung am vergangenen Montag nicht über 4,0 % hinausging, inzwischen aber auf 12,0 % gestiegen ist.Die Veröffentlichung der Daten am Ende der Vorwoche, am 12. Mai, übte einen moderaten Druck auf den US-Dollar aus und ermöglichte dem Gold eine Erholung. So sank der Verbrauchervertrauensindex der Universität Michigan von 63,5 Punkten im Mai auf 57,7 Punkte, entgegen den Expertenschätzungen, die von einem Rückgang auf nur 63,0 Punkte ausgingen. Heute werden die Anleger in der Lage sein, die am Vortag von der New Yorker Fed bekannt gegebene Geschäftstätigkeit im verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu beurteilen.Widerstandsniveaus: 2030,00, 2050,00, 2065,00, 2085,00.Unterstützungsniveaus: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Überblick über den RohölmarktWährend des APAC-Handels zeigt Brent-Rohöl eine widersprüchliche Stimmung und hält sich im Bereich von 73,75. Die "Bären" machen weiter Druck, indem sie die Impulse der Vorwoche nutzen und das Instrument vom lokalen Hoch vom 2. Mai zurückziehen. Der Markt schätzt das Risiko eines Rückgangs des globalen BIP aufgrund der raschen Korrektur der Kreditkosten durch die führenden Regulierungsbehörden ein, die die Rekordinflation in den Regionen bekämpfen wollen.So hat die US-Notenbank in den ersten Maitagen den Zinssatz erneut um 0,25 % auf den Zielwert von 5,25 % erhöht, entgegen den Signalen aus dem Bankensektor, dass die Krise anhält. Unterdessen wurden die für Ende letzter Woche angekündigten regelmäßigen Gespräche zwischen US-Regierungschef Joe Biden und Kongressabgeordneten über die Anpassung der Schuldenobergrenze nach langwierigen Beratungen auf die erste Hälfte dieser Woche verschoben. Sollte keine Einigung erzielt werden, wird das Finanzministerium ab dem 1. Juni eine Reihe von Verpflichtungen gegenüber der Regierung nicht mehr in vollem Umfang bedienen.Widerstandsniveaus: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Unterstützungsniveaus: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, ...
USD/JPY: Fed is calling to continue the hawkish vectorThe trading instrument USD/JPY is showing moderate strengthening and is testing the 136.00 level. The asset is supported by technical factors and investors' expectations on the further steps of the U.S. Federal Reserve.In turn, the Japanese currency is deprived of stimulus by the policy of the Central Bank of Japan, which the day before confirmed the continuation of neutral monetary parameters. Earlier, leading economists took part in a survey initiated by Reuters staff, according to which respondents expressed confidence in the increase of the core consumer inflation index for April to 3.4% from 3.1%. Wage gains and stronger price tags for consumer goods and services signal a high probability of such data in publications in the near future. Meanwhile, Japan's macroeconomic data set released earlier in the week showed the value of goods from manufacturers for April rising 0.2% from March's zero, with analysts expecting 0.3%, while the value of corporate goods at domestic prices fell to 5.8% from 7.2%, with an estimate of 6.0%.Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.67.Support levels: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: sideways dynamics within the boundaries of 0.6820-0.6600As reported by the Australian Bureau of Data in its published March construction report, the overall rate of approved licenses to erect properties declined from February's figure by 0.1% and the private sector by 2.8%. The overall figure for all categories of properties sagged 5.9%, while new residential buildings fell 6.4%. Applications for the construction of non-residential property decreased in volume by 5.1%. Analysts said that the real estate market data that had given hope for a recovery in Q1, resumed a downward correction in the present, which put the national economy under pressure.Resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6820.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6470.Gold prices"The "safe-haven" asset is trading slightly higher, recovering positions lost from the uncertain decline the day before, and testing the 2014.00 level.Moderate pressure on the precious metal was exerted by the news background last Thursday and Friday amid another attempt by the U.S. dollar to strengthen its position. Moreover, decrease of the quotations was caused by the increase of the rates on the US Treasury Bonds and the reconsideration of the FRS plans to correct the borrowing costs in future. The expert community continues to expect the zero dynamics on the interest rate and keeping the value at the target of 5.25%, while the probability of the next increase last Monday did not exceed 4.0%, but after that it increased to 12.0%.The publication of the data at the end of the previous week, on May 12, acted as a moderate pressure for the US dollar, allowing gold to recover. Thus, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for May dropped to 57.7 points from 63.5, contrary to experts' estimations about a decline to only 63.0 points. Today investors will be able to evaluate the business activity announced the day before by the New York Fed.Resistance levels: 2030.00, 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00.Support levels: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Crude Oil market reviewDuring the APAC trading session, the price of Brent crude oil displays contradictory sentiment, holding in the area of 73.75. "Bears" continue to press, using the stimulus of the previous week, pulling back the instrument from the local maximum of May 2. The market assesses the risk of decline in the world GDP due to the rapid correction of the cost of borrowing by the leading regulators, intending to overcome the record inflation in the regions.Thus, in the first days of May the U.S. Federal Reserve again increased the interest rate by 0,25% to the target of 5,25%, contrary to signals from the banking sector on the continuation of the crisis. Meanwhile, another negotiation between the U.S. leader Joe Biden and congressmen on the correction of the upper "ceiling" of the government debt, announced for the end of last week, was postponed to the first half of the current week against the background of lengthy consultations. If consensus is not reached, the national Treasury Department will no longer service a number of the commitments it has made to the government in full as of June 1.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Support levels: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, ...
EUR/USD: euro zone consumer prices may continue growingThe EUR/USD trading instrument is slightly strengthening, making up for the sharp decline seen the day before, which resulted in a renewal of the local low of April 11. The single currency in Europe resumed its attempts to hold above the level of 1.0900, but is short of stimulus by the end of the week. Technical factors and market panic caused by the increasing probability of default in the USA, as the negotiation process between the Republicans and the Democrats on the debt ceiling correction is far from being completed.Today analysts expect the release of consumer price statistics in Spain and France. According to the preliminary estimates, the April index calculated according to the EU formula will remain at the same level of 4.1% and 6.9% respectively. In turn, according to the results of a survey conducted in March by the European Central Bank, most consumers expect a continued upward price correction, despite the current reduction in inflationary trends and significant adjustments in the cost of borrowing. Most respondents agreed that the correction could reach 5.0% over the next 12 months, surpassing the February survey result of 4.6% and 2.9% three years later, up from an earlier estimate of 2.4%.Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.AUD/USD: market assesses the probable consequences of the default in the U.S.Currency pair AUD/USD is under the influence of contradictory sentiment, holding in the area of 0.6700. Macroeconomic data bloc from the U.S. and China has strengthened the bears in the asset, which gained advantage amid the global GDP outlook.Investors are focused around the assessment of the announcement of the U.S. default on servicing the foreign public debt amid disagreements between the Democrats and Republicans, which excludes the agreement between the parties on the increase or suspension of the current national debt ceiling. In the U.S., long consultations in the government are expected, which are associated with an increased likelihood of the most negative scenarios, as participants in the debates are more likely to shake up the situation. Amid the uncertainty, market participants also took a look at jobless claims data. For example, weekly volume for May 5 rose to 264, thousand from 242.0 thousand, with estimates rising to 245.0 thousand, and secondary claims for the week to April 28 rose to 1.813 million from 1.801 million, contrary to an expected increase to 1.820 million.Resistance levels: 0.6728, 0.6750, 0.6795, 0.6816.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6641, 0.6590.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency is actively growing upDuring the APAC trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair showed strong bearish dynamics formed earlier and reached 0.6260, developing a decline that has already surpassed the 100.0 pips step from the local peak of February 14.Negative sentiment in the asset increased at the end of the trading week due to weak macroeconomic statistics in New Zealand. Thus, the manufacturing sector business activity for April rose to 49.1 points from 48.1 points, falling short of the analyst community's forecast of 50.7 points. In its turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revised downward its own inflation estimates for the second quarter to 2.79% from 3.30%, giving experts hope that at the end of the next meeting the regulator will keep the interest rate at the same level.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6150 and 0.6100.USD/CAD: global "triangle" pattern holds in the pairThe USD/CAD trading instrument is coming back under the dominance of the American currency and has reached the level of 1.3493.Total Canadian construction approvals for March rose 11.3% to $11.8 billion, driven by a 32.0% increase in non-residential contracts of $5.2 billion, with ten new projects reported, each surpassing the $100.0 million mark. Residential real estate, after strengthening in February, declined by 0.9% or to $6.6 billion in cash equivalents as the number of building licenses issued for residential buildings reached only 21,400 thousand in March, with experts pointing to the low solvency potential of the population.Resistance levels: 1.3550 and 1.3700.Support levels: 1.3360, ...
AUD/USD: Australian business confidence shows monthly growthAUD/USD is testing 0.6765 due to weak macroeconomic background.As noted by the National Bank of Australia, business confidence in April's index was 0.0 points to last year's -1.0 points, slowing the year-to-date value from 16.0 points to 14.0 points. Some disappointment was noted by investors on the number of construction licenses issued, which for March was down 0.1% from the previous increase of 3.9% for February, and the annual rate consolidated at -2.8% from the previous increase of 11.3%. Retail sales for April, which managed to gain 0.4% from the previous strengthening of 0.2%, were a strong statistic. Tomorrow, May 11, there will be consumer price forecasts which will help investors refine their trading strategy for the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6800 and 0.6950.Support levels: 0.6710, 0.6570.GBP/USD: the Kingdom's mortgage has set an anti-recordGBP/USD currency pair reached the area of 1.2621, having updated the April 2022 maximum, however bulls are limited in prospects due to the lack of new stimulus.Positive dynamics faced the pressure of the macroeconomic statistics from the UK, reflecting the April decline of 0.3% of the Halifax housing costs index to the March growth of 0.8%, which reduced the value position for the year to 0.1%. Home loans made an all-time high of 7.41% the previous month, collapsing the dynamics of demand among the population. Market participants intend to wait for the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England officials announced for Thursday, May 11, according to the preliminary estimates, which may announce to increase the cost of borrowing by 0.25% to the target of 4.50%. Meanwhile, another move of monetary policy correction may precede the end of the current cycle, with the UK Consumer Inflation Index still at its peak.Resistance levels: 1.2665, 1.2900.Support levels: 1.2520, 1.2230.Gold PricesGold prices are trading slightly lower, reaching the level of 2030.00 with the prospect of downward correction. The asset continues to remain attractive for investors amid market participants' desire to minimize risks before the release of U.S. consumer price data.In turn, support for the precious metal was given by the uncertain situation around the U.S. government debt, the upper threshold of which is impossible due to the conflict of interests in the political establishment of the Congress. On the eve of the President Joe Biden sent recommendations to correct the cap, in which the U.S. leader asked to exclude any preconditions amid demands of the Republican wing to reduce budget expenditures. The Treasury Department has already announced that it will not be possible to continue funding the government structures in full at the current rate of rising public debt since June. The banking sector, which incurred significant losses, which were only intensified by the mass closure of deposit accounts by depositors, only increased the risks. According to the US Federal Reserve's survey, banking institutions have tightened credit requirements since early May in order to form a more reliable portfolio of loans and deposits.Resistance levels: 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00, 2100.00.Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46.Crude Oil Market OverviewWTI crude oil reached 73.00 during morning trading. The markets continue to demonstrate low activity due to the wait-and-see attitude of investors in anticipation of the release of the data on consumer prices in the United States. The expert community expects April's rate to consolidate at 5.0% and the core rate to slightly decrease to 5.5% from 5.6%, but the monthly rate could moderate to 0.4% from 0.1%.Meanwhile, investors continue to wait for the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's report, which will clarify the picture with weekly inventories of oil and oil products as of May 5. The market expects to continue its downward trend of 1.6 million barrels, to the previous decline of 1.28 million barrels. An earlier block of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute on commercial hydrocarbon reserves showed a steady increase of 3.618 million barrels from last week's correction of -3.939 million barrels.Resistance levels: 74.00, 76.00, 78.00, 79.24.Support levels: 72.50, 71.00, 70.00, ...
EUR/USD: euro develops an upward correctionThe European currency is testing the level of 1.1040 against the US dollar against the background of the strengthening of the bull trend, restoring lost positions by the end of the previous week, and traders are evaluating macroeconomic statistics released in Europe and the US by Friday, May 5.Investors continue to study data on the US labor market after the end of the Fed summit, as employment statistics continue to hold on strong indicators despite the continuation of the upward dynamics of the interest rate, which supported the mood of buyers for the US dollar. Thus, initial applications for payments for the unemployed amounted to 242.0 thousand, surpassing the expected 240.0 thousand and the previous region of 229.0 thousand. Meanwhile, citizens who received state subsidies, after correction, reached 1.805 million to the previous 1.843 million. In turn, new jobs created by the US economy, with the exception of the agricultural sector, increased by 253.0 thousand in April, developing last month's increase of 165.0 thousand, contrary to the expectation of the analytical community by 179.0 thousand. The average wage per hour rose to 4.4% from 4.3% with estimates of a decline to 4.2%, and the unemployment threshold sank to 3.4% from 3.5%, surpassing the neutral forecast. Strong statistics on the employment market strengthened the mood among market participants in the rationality of the decisions made by US Federal Reserve officials aimed at strengthening the cost of borrowing in the future. We remind you that on the eve of the department again decided to increase the percentage by 0.25%.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0965, 1.0928, 1.0850.AUD/USD: bulls strengthen dominance in the pairThe Australian currency shows moderate positive sentiment against the US dollar, formed by the end of the previous week, despite the publication of positive data on the US employment market. Thus, the US Department of Labor in April recorded a strengthening in new jobs for April, excluding the agricultural sector, by 253.0 thousand compared to the previous growth of 165.0 thousand in March, contrary to experts' expectations of a correction of 179.0 thousand. In turn, the April unemployment in the United States fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, and the average hourly wage continues to moderate growth.Today's publication of macroeconomic data in Australia is not able to have a noticeable impact on the instrument. Thus, the level of approved applications for construction works in March decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous growth of 4.0%, and the annual dynamics indicator slightly improved to -17.3% from -31.1%. Meanwhile, the business environment for the National Bank of Australia in April conditions decreased to 14.0 points from 16.0 points, while expecting a decline to 9.0 points, and the confidence of the business environment showed a correction to 0.0 points from -1.0 points, which fully coincided with forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6850, 0.6900, 0.6950.Support levels: 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6628, 0.6583.USD/CHF: the US Treasury Department gave comments on the government debtThe Asian session shows a slight decline in the Swiss franc to the "American", which allows the instrument to test the threshold of 0.8900, developing a decline due to the low dynamics of the activity of bidders.In turn, the Ministry of Finance makes statements about the impossibility of further fulfilling in full a number of measures of government obligations in a month if the congressmen do not raise or suspend the current debt limit. According to the assessment of the situation by the head of the Ministry, Janet Yellen, business and consumer confidence will suffer significant losses against the background of the unresolved issue, which will lead to a hanging of the cost of short-term loans for the population and harm the reputation of credit ratings in the country. The official adds that in recent months the authorities have been using an assortment of emergency measures to work with the public debt, but their potential is very limited. Economists note that the announcement of default will be a negative signal not only for the national, but also for the global economy.Resistance levels: 0.8925, 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9036.Support levels: 0.8880, 0.8850, 0.8800, 0.8756.USD/JPY: investors are studying the final minutes of the Central Bank of Japan summitThe stable dynamics of the US currency allows the instrument to adjust at around 134.79.Today, on May 8, the publication received the final protocol of the last meeting of officials of the monetary parameters department, reflecting the confirmation of the commitment of the new chairman of the financial authorities to the methods of the past management, and also notes the importance of paying closer attention to price fluctuations on trading platforms. In particular, officials assessed a number of reasons that provoked an increase in retail price tags for goods and services in order to compensate for the increase in the cost of commodities on the commodity market. As a result of the March meeting, the regulator maintained an ultra-soft policy vector, leaving the percentage indicator at -0.10%, and demand in pace and volume for government bonds remained at the same level without upper limits.Resistance levels: 135.80, 139.40.Support levels: 133.70, ...
