EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a boost from the 1.0460 levelDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.12%, reaching 1.0515, continuing to develop positive dynamics after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.15%.ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the eurozone economy is facing a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of continuing high inflation. She also said that the regulator's next steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Investors' attention was focused on the data on industrial production in the eurozone published on Friday: the index for October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the negative trend. In addition, Germany presented weak statistics on foreign trade. Exports decreased by 2.8%, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of -2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.1% with an expected -0.6%. Nevertheless, the trade surplus increased to 13.4 billion euros. These data reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the EU's largest economy, which is likely to maintain the ECB's dovish position in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0720, 1.0825.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0290.USD/CHF: the pair is testing the resistance of 0.8920 against the background of the NBSH decisionThe USD/CHF pair is holding at 0.8908, trying to overcome the resistance of 0.8920 after the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once to 0.50%. Most analysts' forecasts suggested a more modest decrease of 25 basis points.The head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, explained that the slowdown in inflation in November turned out to be higher than experts' expectations, which makes it possible to accelerate the achievement of the regulator's monetary goals. At the same time, the weakening of business activity recorded in recent months required a more significant reduction in the cost of borrowing to stimulate the economy. The regulator also stressed its readiness to carry out currency interventions depending on the market situation, noting that a return to negative rates in the near future is unlikely. Against the background of these statements, the Swiss franc weakened, which supported the growth of the USD/CHF pair. This dynamic is developing within the framework of an uptrend that began back in October, and indicates a possible continuation of the strengthening of the US currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/CAD: quotes have stabilized at peak valuesDuring morning trading, the USD/CAD pair remains near the 1.4220 mark, not far from the April 2020 highs reached at the end of last week. The market remains low in activity, as traders expect the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on December 17-18. Most of the participants are confident that the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum, and will also provide comments on the further strategy.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector from S&P Global will be announced. Analysts predict that the values will remain at the same level: 49.7 points and 56.1 points, respectively. In addition, at 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tifa Macklem, is scheduled to speak. Tomorrow, the market's attention will focus on November inflation data in Canada: according to forecasts, the monthly change in the consumer price index will be 0.0% against the previous value of 0.4%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. Core inflation is likely to remain at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.AUD/USD: the decline in business activity in Australia undermines the growth of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is moving in a sideways trend near the 0.6375 level, continuing to show negative dynamics. The slowdown in activity against the background of limited trading in the US dollar could not significantly change the overall picture of the market.The national currency remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at 4.35%. The December data reflected a decline in business activity: the index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points, remaining in negative territory for the tenth month in a row, and the indicator in the service sector decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 points. The positive dynamics of the labor market in November somewhat smoothed out the overall negative: employment increased by 35.6 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. However, the weak manufacturing sector and limited support from fundamental factors make it difficult for the Australian dollar to rise. The probability of a strengthening of the national currency remains minimal, as the RBA maintains its current course to keep inflation down, avoiding radical changes in monetary policy.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6240.Resistance levels: 0.6400, ...
AUD/USD analysis on December 20, 2024AUD/USD is consolidating near the 0.6221 mark. The pair is in a sideways trend with a downward trend. This is due to the high popularity of the US dollar, which puts pressure on the Australian currency.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), household wealth continued to grow for the eighth consecutive quarter in the third quarter, rising 2.4% to AUD$401 billion. The total amount of wealth reached 16.9 trillion, which is 9.9% more than a year earlier. The main growth drivers were an increase in the value of real estate and savings in pension funds. Meanwhile, expected inflation rose from 3.8% to 4.2% in December, exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2.0–3.0%. This increases the likelihood of maintaining the current monetary policy of the regulator for a long time. Analysts expect the first rate cut not earlier than spring, but with a further increase in inflation, the decision may be postponed until the second half of the year.The US dollar index is trading at 108.10, updating yesterday's highs. In the third quarter, US GDP grew to 3.1% (against the expected 2.8%), the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased to 220,000, and repeat applications decreased to 1,874 million. Sales volumes in the secondary housing market in November also showed a significant increase of 4.8%, reaching 4.15 million.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair adjusted and left the "expanding formation" figure with the boundaries of 0.7100–0.6250. The indicators indicate a strengthening of the downtrend. The EMA lines of the alligator indicator are directed downwards and are below the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram remains in the negative zone.Trading recommendationssale will be relevant if the price drops below the level of 0.6190 with a target of 0.6080. The stop loss is 0.6250.buy is considered when the pair is fixed above the 0.6250 level with a target of 0.6370. The stop loss is ...
AUD/USD analysis on December 16, 2024On Monday, AUD/USD is moving in a sideways corridor near the 0.6375 mark, continuing to show a decline against the background of moderate activity of the US dollar. Although the dynamics of the pair has slowed down somewhat in recent days, the overall trend remains downward.Despite the "hawkish" approach of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which keeps the rate at 4.35%, the national currency is under pressure due to weak business activity data for December. The manufacturing sector continues to be in a contraction zone. Business activity in the industry fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points. The indicator has remained below the threshold of 50 points for the tenth month in a row. The service sector also slightly deteriorated, from 50.5 to 50.4 points. Nevertheless, the labor market data for November brought temporary relief - the employment rate rose to 35.6 thousand. (against the projected 25.0 thousand), full employment rose to 52.6 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% with a forecast of 4.2%. However, these data were not enough to strengthen the Australian dollar, especially in the absence of confidence in reducing inflation risks.The US dollar index remains stable and is trading at 106.50, in anticipation of the Fed meeting on December 18. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 93.4%. Today's publication of business activity indices may bring short-term changes to the market - a slight decrease is expected in the manufacturing sector (from 49.7 to 49.4) and the service sector (from 56.1 to 55.7).AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair continues to adjust above the support of the "expanding formation" pattern with boundaries in the range of 0.7100–0.6300.- Indicators strengthen sales signals.- The fast EMA lines of the alligator indicator are directed downwards, remaining below the signal line.- The histogram of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator is in the sales zone.Trading recommendations- Sale: when the level of 0.6350 breaks down and the price fixes below it. The target is 0.6240. The stop loss is 0.6400.- Buy: when breaking up the 0.6400 level and consolidating above. The target is 0.6530. The stop loss is ...
AUD/USD is showing modest growth, trying to regain positions after losses in recent days. At the moment, the pair is testing the 0.6370 level for the possibility of an upward breakout. The Australian dollar is supported by fresh employment data published the day before.According to the report, in November, employment growth in Australia amounted to 35.6 thousand instead of the expected 25.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the October value of 12.1 thousand. Full-time employment increased by 52.6 thousand, while partial employment decreased by 17.0 thousand. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.1% to 3.9%, although analysts had predicted 4.2%. These results allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current monetary policy while anticipating further easing of inflation risks.At the same time, the US dollar strengthened against the background of the publication of data on industrial inflation for November. The core producer price index rose from 3.1% to 3.4% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts, although on a monthly basis the growth rate decreased to 0.2%. The broader indicator showed an acceleration to 3.0% year-on-year and to 0.4% month-on-month, which also supported the "green" dollar.Today, market activity may remain subdued while participants evaluate the results of the RBA meeting. The regulator again left the rate at 4.35%, for the ninth time in a row, while indicating that core inflation remains high. Despite this, the regulator signaled its readiness to gradually abandon the "hawkish" rhetoric. Core inflation slowed to 3.5% in September, but the RBA stresses that it will take time to return it to the target range of 2.0–3.0%. Australia's leading banks forecast a rate cut no earlier than May 2025, although some, such as Commonwealth Bank, expect this as early as February.Meanwhile, investors' attention is shifting to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 17-18. According to the FedWatch Tool from CME Group, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 90%.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayThe main forex indicators give mixed signals. The Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart is expanding, indicating the possibility of further decline. The MACD indicator retains a weak sell signal, and Stochastic, having reached the level of 20, shows a tendency to reverse, which may indicate the likelihood of a short-term upward correction.Trading recommendations- short positions after the breakdown of the 0.6336 level down with a target of 0.6250. The recommended stop loss is 0.6372.- buy with a rebound from the 0.6336 level up, followed by a breakdown of the 0.6372 mark. The target is 0.6455, the stop loss is ...