During the Asian session on January 14, AUD/USD shows moderate strengthening, developing the bullish momentum of yesterday, when the pair was able to retreat from the lows of April 2020. AUD is supported by favorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia.The consumer sentiment index from Westpac Banking Corp., which evaluates the level of confidence in economic activity based on a survey of about 1.2 thousand respondents, decreased by only 0.7% in January compared with a drop of 2.0% a month earlier. In addition, China's strong foreign trade data continues to have a positive impact. China's exports increased from 6.7% to 10.7% year-on-year, beating forecasts of 7.3%, while imports increased by 1.0%, after a decrease of 3.9% earlier. This led to an increase in the trade surplus from 97.44 billion to 104.84 billion dollars, exceeding analysts' expectations of 99.8 billion dollars.Investors also paid attention to Australia's inflation data from TD Securities. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index accelerated from 0.2% to 0.6%, although the downward trend remains from 2.9% to 2.6% year-on-year. The annual consumer price index, published earlier, rose to 2.3% from 2.1% in October, partly due to government subsidies for electricity. The final decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the interest rate, which will be made after the publication of the quarterly report on January 29, may affect the cost of borrowing in February and become an important factor before the federal elections.The main focus on Thursday will be on the December report on the Australian labor market, where employment is expected to increase by 15.0 thousand compared with 35.6 thousand in November and the unemployment rate will rise from 3.9% to 4.0%.Today, at 15:30 (GMT+2), a report on the US producer price index will be published. If the actual data coincide with the forecast of 0.4% growth in December, the statistics will support the annual growth rate to 3.4%. However, it is unlikely that this change will significantly affect the Fed's plans, which involve two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is trying to move to a flat state. The MACD indicator shows a confident buy signal, while Stochastic signals a possible oversold Australian dollar in the short term.Trading recommendationsWith a confident break above the 0.6200 level, it is recommended to open long positions with a target of 0.6250 and a stop loss at 0.6178.Short-term sales are possible with a rebound from the 0.6200 level, followed by a breakdown down to 0.6178, with a target of 0.6130 and a stop loss at ...
AUD/USD analysis on January 15, 2025By the middle of the week, AUD/USD rose to 0.6192, reflecting cautious optimism in the market.At the same time, traders are cautious ahead of the publication of December inflation data in the United States, which may affect the prospects for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.Earlier, the Australian dollar partially recovered its positions after the reaction of the US dollar to the statistics on the producer price index.Key events for AUDOn Thursday, Australia will publish an employment report, which is an important indicator of the state of the labor market. These data are crucial for adjusting the forecasts for interest rate dynamics of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).At the end of the month, fresh inflation data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published. These indicators will play a key role in shaping expectations regarding the upcoming RBA meeting and its decisions on borrowing rates.Currently, investors estimate the probability of a rate cut at the February RBA meeting at 70%. In the case of such a scenario, the rate may decrease by 25 basis points from the current 4.35% per annum. The market has already taken this opportunity into account in prices.Nevertheless, the continuing uncertainty about the future policy of the RBA and the target rate level deters investors from taking active action, limiting the AUD's growth potential.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD pair is forming an upward wave with a target at 0.6211. It is expected that this level will be tested today, after which a decline to 0.6161 is possible. A consolidation zone is likely to form around this mark. If the pair breaks through this zone up, a correction to 0.6290 may begin. In case of a breakdown downwards, a new wave of decline is possible with a target of 0.6116. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, as its signal line is below the zero mark, but pointing upwards.On the hourly chart, the pair is forming a wave of growth towards 0.6211, which is expected to be reached today. Then a correction wave to 0.6161 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above the 50 mark and is moving up to 80.ConclusionThe recent recovery of the Australian dollar is being held back by uncertainty surrounding the RBA's future decisions. Key internal data, including employment and inflation figures for the fourth quarter, significantly affect market expectations. The main forex indicators point to the short-term growth potential of AUD/USD, however, further success of buyers will depend on clarity regarding the RBA's policy and general economic ...
The Australian dollar is showing a moderate decline. AUD/USD is developing a "bearish" momentum that originated at the beginning of the week after a pullback from local highs in mid-December. Pressure on the Australian currency remains as the US dollar strengthens amid expectations of a tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve following statements by newly elected US President Donald Trump. The markets expect that the new trade and foreign policy initiatives of the republican administration, including the indexation of import duties, may affect the long-term prospects for the dynamics of world currencies.Statistics from Australia show mixed signals. Retail sales increased by 0.8% in November, which was lower than the forecast 1.0%, but better than the previous month's 0.5%. Exports increased by 4.8%, while imports increased by 1.7%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus to 7,079 billion Australian dollars against the forecast of 5,750 billion. The consumer price index also showed an increase to 2.3%, which exceeded expectations, but the truncated figure fell to 3.2%, remaining close to the target range of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The level of rents and the stability of the labor market continue to be key factors for the monetary policy of the RBA, which is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude towards interest rate adjustments.Meanwhile, data from China indicates a slowdown in the growth of the consumer price index of China, which also affects the Australian dollar. In December, the consumer price index decreased to 0.1% year-on-year, while the producer price index showed a slowdown from -2.5% to -2.3%.Investors are waiting for the publication of key statistics on the US labor market for December on Friday, which may have a significant impact on the movement of the AUD/USD pair. 154 thousand new jobs are projected to be created outside the agricultural sector, and unemployment is likely to remain at 4.2%. Data from ADP also points to a slowdown in employment growth.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayTechnical analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator suggests a move to the horizontal direction, limiting the "bearish" prospects in the short term. The MACD gives a weak buy signal, while the Stochastic is near the "20" mark, which indicates a possible oversold position.Trading recommendations- The formation of short positions is recommended when the pair breaks down the level of 0.6178 with a target of 0.6100. We will place the stop loss at 0.6225.- Purchases are advisable when there is a rebound from the 0.6178 level and an upward breakout of 0.6225. The target will be 0.6300. We put the stop loss at ...
During Monday's Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair shows a sideways movement near the 0.6224 mark. The Australian currency remains stable, despite the growth of the US dollar last week, which allows it to remain above the minimum values of last year at 0.6200.Today, investors' attention was attracted by preliminary indicators of Australian business activity from S&P Global. The seasonally adjusted index in the services sector rose from 50.5 to 50.8 points, continuing its positive trend throughout 2024, although the growth rate remains moderate. The composite index was fixed at 50.2 points, reflecting a slight decline in private sector output. At the same time, the manufacturing sector showed a decrease in activity, which limits the potential for strengthening the Australian dollar.Future moves by the monetary authorities of China, Australia's largest trading partner, could change the situation. A positive reaction was caused by a report in the Financial Times about a possible interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China this year. This could contribute to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the expansion of imports from Australia, including coal and iron ore.At the same time, the US dollar index is showing a local correction and is currently trading at 108.6 points, not far from the annual high of 109,200. This happened after the publication of business activity data from the ISM, where the manufacturing index rose from 48.4 to 49.3 points, reaching its highest level since March last year.On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is moving within a descending channel with boundaries of 0.6280–0.6100. Technical indicators give a weak sell signal: the fast EMAs on the alligator remain pointing down, and the histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator (AO) is still in the sell zone.To form short positions, it is recommended to wait for the price to consolidate below the support level of 0.6180 with a target of 0.6040. We will set the stop loss at 0.6250.We will consider purchases after the pair has consolidated above the resistance level of 0.6270 with a target of 0.6400 and a stop loss at ...