AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...
EUR/USD: the Bank of Italy insists on revising interest rate policyThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 1.0590 level. Trading activity remains elevated, but market participants have not decided on the direction of the trend after the growth recorded at the beginning of the week.Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone failed to provide significant support for the euro, which continues to trade near local highs due to the weakening of the dollar. In October, the core consumer price index in the region increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which coincided with market expectations. The broader indicator also increased by 0.3% and 2.0%, respectively. These data indicate that inflation has stabilized at the target level, which causes uncertainty about the future steps of the European Central Bank (ECB). Particular attention was drawn to statements by the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, who advocated lowering interest rates to support an economy on the verge of stagnation. He noted that delay could lead to inflation falling significantly below the target level, which would complicate its recovery with the help of monetary instruments.The US dollar came under pressure after the publication of weak statistics. In October, the number of construction permits fell to 1.325 million after the September value of 1.430 million, and their volume decreased by 0.6% in percentage terms after a decrease of 3.1% a month earlier. The number of construction starts also decreased by 3.1% after a 1.9% decrease in September. However, a positive factor was the dynamics of the Redbook retail sales index, which accelerated from 4.8% to 5.1% in November. On Friday, S&P Global is scheduled to publish November indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector in the United States and the eurozone, which may become key factors for the further movement of the pair.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0630, 1.0665, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0450.AUD/USD: the attention of market participants is focused on the RBA protocolsThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective decline, trading around 0.6526, while the Australian currency remains positive, and the US dollar continues to weaken.The day before, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on November 5 were published. Representatives of the regulator confirmed that the key challenge for the country's economy is high inflation. Although the overall index shows a decline due to cheaper fuel, core inflation, reflecting long-term trends, continues to grow. According to RBA analysts, it will not return to the target range of 1.0–2.0% before 2026. In the current situation, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) remains low, which necessitates maintaining a restraining monetary policy.The RBA left the key interest rate at 4.35%, stressing that the policy of strict borrowing conditions will remain in place until favorable macroeconomic conditions appear. The agency also pointed out that the transition to lower rates is possible only if there is a stable growth in consumption and a significant deterioration in the labor market situation. Experts believe that the regulator's further steps will depend on the dynamics of domestic demand and the state of global economic relations.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6670.Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6400.Silver market analysisIn morning trading, the XAG/USD pair is holding around 31.16, supported by rising gold prices and statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.The US central bank continues to adhere to the strategy of easing monetary policy, planning to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points in December. Such a move could strengthen the position of assets competing with the dollar, especially in the long term. A reduction in the interest rate, according to analysts, will lead to a reduction in the debt burden, which will create conditions for expanding production and increasing consumption of industrial metals. According to the forecasts of the Silver Institute, the demand for this metal will reach 700 million ounces in 2024, which corresponds to an annual increase of more than 7%.On the other hand, data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a decrease in the probability of a December rate cut: over the past two weeks, it has decreased from 80% to 58.9%. Against the background of this uncertainty, investors may pay more attention to precious metals, which will potentially lead to an increase in their value closer to the Fed meeting.Resistance levels: 31.70, 33.70.Support levels: 30.70, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning, WTI Crude Oil quotes show multidirectional dynamics, trading around the 69.00 mark. The instrument remains near the local highs reached on November 11, but is under pressure from news about a decrease in the supply of hydrocarbons. The Norwegian company Equinor ASA announced a reduction in production at the largest Western European field Johan Sverdrup due to power outages. In turn, the American Chevron announced a temporary limitation of production capacities at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan in connection with maintenance.Problems in the Chinese economy continue to have an impact on the oil market. Despite the efforts of the authorities, recovery remains limited, and experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that in 2024 the global surplus of hydrocarbon supply may exceed 1 million barrels per day. The key role in balancing the market will be played by the further policy of OPEC+ regarding the increase in production volumes.Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), published the day before. In the week ending November 15, commercial oil reserves unexpectedly increased by 4,753 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 0.8 million barrels. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 17:30 (GMT+2). Preliminary estimates indicate a possible slowdown in stock growth from 2.089 to 0.800 million barrels, which may affect further price dynamics.Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.00, 71.60, 72.17.Support levels: 69.06, 68.15, 67.00, ...
On Wednesday, AUD/USD is adjusted within the framework of a downtrend and is currently trading at 0.6526. This is due to the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the background of positive economic data and the depreciation of the US currency.The recent minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting showed that high inflation remains the main problem of the economy. Although the overall inflation rate is slowing due to lower fuel prices, core inflation continues to rise and is expected to return to the target range of 1-2% only by 2026. This is holding back GDP growth. The bank has kept its key rate at 4.35% and intends to adhere to a restraining monetary policy until economic conditions improve. The regulator allows a reduction in rates only if there is a steady decline in consumer activity and a noticeable deterioration in the labor market situation.The US dollar index is trading at 106.10. His position is influenced by weak statistics on the real estate market. In October, the number of construction permits issued decreased from 1.425 million to 1.416 million, falling short of forecasts of 1.440 million. Also, the volume of new construction decreased by 3.1%, to 1.311 million units, with expectations of 1.340 million.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayThe AUD/USD pair is correcting near the support line within the framework of the "expanding formation" model with dynamic boundaries of 0.6980–0.6320.The EMA lines on the alligator are directed downwards, maintaining a stable distance from the signal line.The histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator is in the negative zone, but the sell signal is weakening.Open short positions after the price is fixed below the level of 0.6490 with a target of 0.6400. Let's set the stop loss at 0.6540.Purchases after the pair's steady growth above the 0.6560 level with a target of 0.6670. We will place the stop loss at ...
USD/CHF: trading activity is entering a mixed phaseThe quotes of the USD/CHF pair show mixed dynamics, holding near the level of 0.8836 after a significant decline recorded in the previous trading session.The Swiss franc is under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics. In the third quarter, the growth rate of industrial production in the country decreased from 7.0% to 3.5%, which signaled a slowdown in economic activity. Additionally, inflation data had a negative impact: in October, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the indicator decreased to -1.8% from -1.3%, which indicates the continued pressure of deflationary factors.The American statistics, which will be published on Friday, may support the dollar. S&P Global business activity indices are expected to show growth: in the manufacturing sector, an increase from 48.5 to 48.8 points is forecast, and in the services sector — from 55.0 to 55.2 points, which will confirm the stability of the US economy. Additionally, the market will focus on the speech of the head of the Swiss National Bank Martin Schlegel, which is scheduled for Friday at 14:40 (GMT+2). Investors will closely monitor his comments on monetary policy, given that Schlegel became head of the regulator only in October 2024, and his statements may provide a new vector for the movement of the franc.Resistance levels: 0.8865, 0.8900, 0.8935, 0.8964.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8730.USD/CAD: investors are preparing for the publication of October inflation in CanadaIn the morning hours, the USD/CAD pair shows recovery, playing back the decline recorded earlier in the week, which did not allow the instrument to gain a foothold at its maximum values since May 2020.Key data on inflation in Canada will be presented today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase from 1.6% to 1.9% in annual terms, and from -0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Experts, however, note that inflation in the country continues to be in a downward trend. In September, the main correction factor — a decrease in the cost of gasoline — was caused by a drop in oil prices to $ 65.0 per barrel. Analysts believe that this trend could have continued in October, despite a temporary increase in oil prices to $ 75.0 per barrel.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets experts predict that core inflation will remain in the range of 2.4–2.5%. Although the tax increase will support the rise in housing costs, this effect will be offset by lower mortgage costs due to the Bank of Canada's decision to lower interest rates in October. Economists are confident that the regulator will take an additional 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting scheduled for December 11.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, 1.3862.NZD/USD: New Zealand Producer Price Index shows 1.5% growth in Q3During morning trading, the NZD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding near the 0.5890 level. The dynamics is due to the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of positive macroeconomic data and the weakening of the position of the US currency.According to published statistics, in the third quarter, the index of producer selling prices in New Zealand increased from 1.1% to 1.5%, and purchasing prices — from 1.4% to 1.9%. The price indicator for capital goods also showed a slight increase of 0.1%. The exception was the price index for agricultural expenses, which decreased by 0.2%. However, reducing the cost of equipment and raw materials in the agricultural sector can be seen as a positive signal for the economy.The US dollar, on the contrary, continues to weaken, dropping to the level of 106.10 in USDX. Investors are reacting to expectations of rising inflation related to the policies of the new US President Donald Trump. His plans to impose import tariffs and tax cuts involve financing through increased government debt, raising concerns about possible inflationary pressures. Analysts believe that this may force the US Federal Reserve to reconsider plans for further monetary policy easing, which could increase pressure on the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5930, 0.6060.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5730.AUD/USD: the pair strengthens its growth on the background of data from the United StatesThe quotes of the AUD/USD pair show steady growth around 0.6508, continuing the upward momentum formed at the end of last week. The rise occurred after the pair retreated from local lows on August 5 amid the release of weak macroeconomic data from the United States.The markets drew attention to the slowdown in retail sales in October: the indicator fell from 0.8% to 0.4%, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.3%, but the results excluding motor transport fell from 1.0% to 0.1%, not meeting analysts' expectations of 0.3%. Industrial production decreased by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% a month earlier, and the capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.4% to 77.1%, contrary to forecasts of 77.2%. At the same time, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly rose from -11.9 points to 31.2 points in November, significantly exceeding the projected -0.7 points.The Australian currency is also affected by the publication of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting held on November 5. At that time, the regulator left the interest rate at 4.35%, stressing that the current policy is in line with current domestic and international economic conditions. The RBA expressed concern about the slow slowdown in inflation, which is projected to remain in the range of 2.0–3.0% until the third quarter of 2025, with a possible increase due to the end of energy subsidies. In addition, despite the stability of the labor market, the rate of employment growth slowed down, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Against the background of these events, the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, said that the current cost of borrowing is already having a sufficient limiting effect on the economy and will remain at this level until more stable inflation forecasts are received. This statement continues to support the bullish market sentiment for the Australian currency.Resistance levels: 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6622.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6478, 0.6440, ...
GBP/USD: the market is preparing for a report on inflation in BritainThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.2633 mark, showing a decline against the background of the continued strengthening of the US currency. The dynamics of the pair remains uncertain, due to the growing volatility ahead of key macroeconomic events.Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of inflation data in the UK, scheduled for Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 1.7% to 2.2%, exceeding the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%. This may strengthen the arguments for postponing interest rate cuts, especially given the current situation in the real estate market. Data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. indicate an increase in the average interest rate on a five-year fixed mortgage to 5.4955% against 5.4205% a week earlier, which increases the burden on households.Additional pressure on the UK economy is exerted by the tax increase announced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This decision complicates the choice for the Bank of England: either to maintain a "dovish" position to support business, or to strengthen measures to control inflation. Last week, Catherine Mann, a member of the board of the Bank of England, spoke out for the need to hold the current rate in order to reduce the risks of falling purchasing power, including against the background of possible changes in global trade policy after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2890.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan does not abandon the tight monetary policyThe USD/JPY pair shows a correction within the framework of an uptrend, trading near the 154.63 mark, which is associated with the strengthening of the position of the US currency against the background of increased expectations regarding monetary policy.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, commented on the situation for the first time after the conclusion of the US presidential election. He stressed that the regulator is ready to consider the possibility of further interest rate increases if key economic indicators meet forecasts. Ueda also noted that the current rate decision will depend on external factors, including the outcome of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. According to estimates, about 55% of experts believe that the Bank of Japan may raise the rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year, especially if the Fed decides to keep its rate at the same level. However, some analysts believe that the Japanese regulator may take a wait-and-see position due to potential risks.Among such risks, there is a slowdown in economic growth in China, which is an important trading partner of Japan, as well as the possibility of introducing new tariff barriers by the administration of US President Donald Trump. These measures may put pressure on Japan's export sector, which could strengthen the weakening of the yen. Nevertheless, despite external factors, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its commitment to a "hawkish" approach, trying to maintain economic stability in the face of external challenges.Resistance levels: 155.40, 158.30.Support levels: 153.60, 150.70.AUD/USD: the pair is moving towards an annual lowThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend, trading near the 0.6464 mark. Despite attempts by the Australian dollar to strengthen under the influence of favorable macroeconomic statistics, it is still close to its summer lows, reflecting continued pressure from global factors.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October. Employment growth amounted to 36.8 thousand, increasing the total figure to 14.537 million people. Full-time employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and part-time employment added 6.2 thousand, reaching 4.499 million. At the same time, the number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand, reaching 623.5 thousand people. The employment-to-total population ratio remained at 64.4%, while the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. These data indicate the stability of the labor market, but at the same time reflect the limited pace of its growth.Experts from the National Bank of Australia have revised their expectations regarding the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If earlier it was predicted that the regulator would start lowering interest rates in February, now analysts believe that monetary policy easing is postponed until at least May. This is due to the continued tense situation in the labor market and the risks of a re-acceleration of inflation. Such an approach by the RBA can support the national currency in the long term, but in the short term, the Australian dollar remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and global economic uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 18, gold quotes show an upward trend, trading around $2,591.16 per troy ounce, which is 1.2% higher than the previous session.The rise in gold prices is due to the suspension of the strengthening of the US dollar, which rose by 1.6% last week, but has now stabilized. The weakness of the dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Investors are waiting for speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week to get more information about the future trajectory of interest rates. According to forecasts, the Fed's rhetoric in December will be less mild, which may prepare the market for a possible rate hold at the current level in January. At least seven Fed representatives are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, US retail sales data for October showed an increase of 0.3%, which exceeds analysts' expectations and indicates the stability of the economy.Geopolitical events also have an impact on the gold market. The US presidential administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, which is a significant change in US policy and may increase tensions in the region. Such events traditionally increase the demand for safe assets, which include gold.Resistance levels: $2,600, $2,620.Support levels: $2,580, ...
On Monday, AUD/USD remains within the downtrend, correcting near the 0.6464 level. The Australian dollar is trying to develop an upward movement due to positive economic data, but it is still close to summer lows.In October, the unemployment rate in Australia, seasonally adjusted, remained at 4.1%, which is supported by an increase in the number of employed by 36.8 thousand, to 14.537 million. The number of unemployed increased by 0.8 thousand to 623.5 thousand, and the level of full employment increased by 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million. Part-time employment also increased by 6.2 thousand to 4.499 million. At the same time, the share of employed in the total population remained at 64.4%, while the level of economic activity slightly decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to: it will postpone the start of the monetary policy easing cycle from February to May next year. The regulator takes into account the stability of the labor market and the continuing inflation risks.The US dollar index, after Friday's correction, is now trading around 106.50. Investors are assessing the prospects for the actions of the US Federal Reserve, where, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 65%. After that, the regulator is expected to pause to analyze inflationary pressure and the state of the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that further rate decisions will depend on current economic data.On the daily chart, AUD/USD is adjusted above the support line of the "expanding formation" model with dynamic boundaries of 0.6950–0.6300.Technical analysis confirms the sell signals. The EMA lines of the alligator indicator are directed downwards and maintain a stable distance from the signal line, while the awesome oscillator histogram continues to decline in the sales area.Open sales after the breakdown and consolidation of the price below the level of 0.6440 with a target mark of 0.6350. We will set the stop loss at 0.6500.Long positions are possible after the pair grows and strengthens above 0.6490 with a target of 0.6590. We will put the stop loss at ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and ...
During Thursday's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows an unstable movement near the 0.6570 mark. Pressure on the asset is exerted by data on the Australian economy.September retail sales showed a slowdown to 0.1% instead of the expected 0.3%. In the third quarter, sales increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. The number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% in September, offsetting a 3.9% drop a month earlier. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated to 6.8%. Investors also drew attention to statistics from China, where business activity in the service sector rose to 50.2 points against expectations of 50.4, and the manufacturing sector slightly exceeded forecasts, strengthening from 49.8 to 50.1 points.Earlier, AUD/USD was under pressure from Australian inflation data, which increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Consumer prices in September slowed from 2.7% to 2.1% (against the forecast of 2.3%), and the quarterly increase was only 0.2%. Lower prices for electricity and fuel have allowed to reach a three-year low, but the high cost of services remains, preventing the Central Bank from relaxing its hawkish policy.The US dollar, despite the decline in US GDP from 3.0% to 2.8%, strengthened its position thanks to the ADP report on private sector employment. In October, this figure rose to 233.0 thousand jobs, although a decrease to 115.0 thousand was expected. A strong labor market and stable GDP do not contribute to monetary policy easing by the Fed, which supports the dollar.On the daily AUD/USD chart, the Bollinger bands indicator narrows, showing a decrease, but remains wide enough for current market activity. The MACD indicator turns up, but retains a sell signal. Stochastic, having retreated from the minimum values, indicates a possible corrective growth.Short positions can be opened after a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.6536 with a target mark of 0.6456. We will place the stop loss at 0.6590.If the AUD/USD pair bounces off the 0.6536 support and breaks through the 0.6600 resistance, we will get a buy signal with a target at 0.6700. We will place the stop loss at ...
