Trading signals and online forecasts AUD/USD

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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for Wednesday, July 17, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for Wednesday, July 17, 2024 EUR/USD: ZEW report indicates worsening economic conditions in GermanyThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of a weakening US dollar, maintaining the level of 1.0902 during the Asian session. At the same time, the European currency does not show a significant improvement in its position this week due to economic data indicating continued difficulties in the main EU economies.The latest report from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) showed that the index of current economic conditions in Germany in July was -68.9 points, which is an improvement from the previous value of -73.8 points, but the indicator of economic sentiment fell to 41.8 points from 47.5 points. The index of economic sentiment in the EU also fell to 43.7 points, reaching the level of April lows. ZEW President Achim Wambach commented on the data, pointing to a deterioration in the economic outlook due to lower exports, political uncertainty in France and uncertainty about the future policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, the ECB household survey showed an increase in loan requests, which indicates expectations of a soft monetary policy. Despite some improvement in inflation indicators, economic stability in the EU remains weak, which prevents a more significant growth of the euro.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0800.Resistance levels: 1.0922, 1.1010.AUD/USD: In Australia, households anticipate an increase in mortgage rates for 2025During Asian trading, the AUD/USD pair stabilized around the value of 0.6737.The Australian dollar is strengthening as market participants expect further interest rate hikes in light of the latest data from Westpac Banking Corp., which showed a drop in consumer sentiment to a new low: the index fell by 1.1%, reaching 82.7 points compared with the previous 83.6 points. Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan pointed to a steady decline in sentiment over the past two years, despite significant government attempts to adjust tariffs as part of tax reforms to support low- and middle-income citizens. Concerns about ongoing inflation and a possible further increase in interest rates are once again beginning to put increased pressure on consumer sentiment, neutralizing any positive effects from financial support. The weighted average consumer price index in Australia rose from 3.60% to 4.00% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.80%. In light of this, more households are starting to expect an increase in mortgage rates in the next 12 months, with this figure already reaching almost 60.0% in June. Also, the latest decline in Australian dairy exports by 17.0% and an increase in imports by 19.0% are partly due to China's efforts to increase domestic production through significant public investment, which reduces dependence on imported goods. Labor market data for June will be published on Thursday at 3:30 (GMT+2): unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% and full-time employment growth will slow from 39.7 thousand to 20.0 thousand, which will confirm the stability of the sector in the face of tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6628.Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6850.GBP/USD: UK consumer price index fell to 0.2% in the month to JuneThe GBP/USD pair stabilized at 1.2968 after a significant rise last week caused by the weakening of the US dollar.The pound maintains a moderate growth rate in light of the latest inflation data, which reached 2.0% in June, repeating the figure of the previous month and consolidating within 1.5–2.0% for the first time in several years. Excluding the cost of fuel and food, the core price index remained at 3.5% year-on-year, falling from 0.5% to 0.2% month-on-month. The stability of inflation in the target corridor of the Bank of England creates prerequisites for a transition to a softer monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on August 1, officials may reduce the interest rate from the current 5.25% to 5.00%.Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3170.Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2740.USD/JPY: IMF revised Japan's GDP estimate for 2024The USD/JPY pair is on the verge of exiting the long-term upward channel, falling to the level of 157.81. The slowdown in economic growth in the United States and a decrease in inflation are putting pressure on the US dollar, which may lead to a change in monetary policy.Tomorrow, traders will closely monitor the updated data on Japan's foreign trade: it is expected that at 01:50 (GMT+2) statistics will be published showing a decrease in exports from 13.5% to 6.4% and imports from 9.5% to 9.3%, which will affect the slowdown in the fall in the trade balance from -1220.1 billion yen to -240.0 billion yen. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made adjustments to Japan's economic growth forecast, reducing it from 0.9% to 0.7% amid problems with car supplies related to the Daihatsu Motor Co. scandal and weak private investment in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 159.37, 160.93, 162.50, 164.06.Support levels: 157.81, 156.25, ...
AUD/USD: the Australian economy is recovering steadily
AUD/USD, currency, AUD/USD: the Australian economy is recovering steadily AUD/USD analysis on July 15, 2024The AUD/USD pair is correcting upwards to the level of 0.6775. The strengthening is carried out against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, although the Australian currency remained almost at the same positions.In May, tourism in Australia showed growth for the first time in five months. The number of short-term arrivals reached 600.78 thousand, which is 17.3% more than last year, and the total number of arrivals of residents and non-residents amounted to 1.478 million, an increase of 14%. According to forecasts by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the total number of arrivals may exceed 1.530 million in June. If this trend continues, the pressure on the economy will decrease by the end of the third quarter. Labor market data will be released on Thursday at 03:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% and full-time employment growth will slow from 39.7 thousand to 20.0 thousand. The stability of the sector in the context of tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduces the likelihood of interest rate changes this year.The US dollar is trading at 103.80 on the DXY index. In June, the producer price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month and from 2.4% to 2.6% year-on-year, which may contribute to an increase in consumer inflation. Additionally, data from the University of Michigan put pressure on the USD: in July, the consumer expectations index fell from 69.6 to 67.2 points, and the consumer sentiment index — from 68.2 to 66.0 points.AUD/USD Technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6870–0.6720.Technical indicators give buy signals: fast EMAs on the Alligator are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator is growing in the buy zone.Long positions can be opened when the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6790 with a target of 0.6870. We recommend setting the stop loss at 0.6750.Sales are advisable when the price is reduced and fixed below the level of 0.6750. The nearest target is at 0.6680. We will place the stop loss at ...
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024 AUD/USD: the increase in the price range opens the way to new peaks for the bullsThe AUD/USD pair is showing noticeable growth, updating its maximum values since the beginning of the year as part of its upward trajectory on short- and ultra-short-term horizons: the currency pair is testing the 0.6760 level for possible overcoming, using the weakness of the US dollar, which is under pressure due to increasing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.The Australian dollar is influenced today by fresh macroeconomic statistics: the index of inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute for July decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, and the total number of construction permits issued in May jumped from 1.9% to 5.5%, including an increase in permits for the construction of new homes from -3.0% to 2.1%. Despite these positive indicators, experts emphasize that the construction sector is still under the onslaught of high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The full recovery of this sector is expected only after the transition to a more lenient monetary policy, which may not happen this year due to the incessant growth in consumer prices.Resistance levels: 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6679.USD/JPY: currency stabilizes at historical peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, again checking the level of 161.70. The previous time, the currency instrument made attempts to take new heights, but the available incentives were not enough for rapid growth.Today's statistics from Japan showed that orders for engineering products increased by 10.8% year-on-year in May, significantly exceeding expectations of 7.2% and the previous increase of 0.7%. However, the monthly indicator decreased by 3.2%, which is worse than the previous value of -2.9% and initial estimates of 0.8%. Prices for corporate goods in June fell to 0.2% compared to a month earlier, against a forecast of 0.4%, but increased from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations. Against the background of a strong decline in the yen and rising prices for imported raw materials, investors' confidence in the possible imminent tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is strengthening. Sources of the Reuters news agency report that in the near future the regulator may adjust the forecasts of the country's economic growth, while confirming expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 162.00, 162.50, 163.00, 163.50.Support levels: 161.30, 160.80, 160.25, 159.92.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the silver exchange rate (XAG/USD) has been steadily rising, focusing on an uptrend after mixed results at the beginning of the week and approaching the 31.00 mark in anticipation of new incentives for further movement.Important data on inflation in the United States is expected to be published today at 14:30 GMT+2, which may have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Analysts assume that the consumer price index in June will decrease to 3.1% per annum from the previous 3.3% and show a slight increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis after stabilization in May. Markets continue to expect one or two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one likely to be announced as early as September. In his recent speech to the Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant changes in the labor market, indicating its slowdown, and stressed the need to take into account the risks of changes in the cost of borrowing, focusing not only on inflation, but also on the general trends of the slowdown in the US economy. At the end of the week, investors' attention will focus on data on industrial inflation, where, according to forecasts, the index will increase from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and rise from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 31.15, 31.49, 32.00, 32.50.Support levels: 30.75, 30.50, 30.15, 29.84.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices are showing moderate growth, continuing to rise after the publication of a report on a decrease in oil reserves in the United States, with the current trading level around $85.00 per barrel.According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of reserves decreased by 1,923 million barrels after a previous decrease of 9.163 million barrels. A similar trend was shown by the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a decrease of 3.443 million barrels after a decrease of 12.157 million barrels in the previous period, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The total reduction in reserves over the past two weeks has exceeded 15 million barrels, which pushes for the possibility of a new stage in the release of oil from US strategic reserves, as previously mentioned in the presidential administration.Resistance levels: 86.00, 89.90.Support levels: 84.00, ...
AUD/USD: RBA makes no sense to cut the rate
AUD/USD, currency, AUD/USD: RBA makes no sense to cut the rate AUD/USD review on July 11, 2024AUD/USD is showing active growth, updating the local highs of the beginning of the year and is striving to break through the level of 0.6760. This is happening against the background of the weakening of the US dollar due to the likely reduction in interest rates by the Fed in September.On July 9, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in the Senate, stressing that the adjustment of monetary policy should take into account not only inflation. He noted a significant slowdown in the labor market in June, which increases the chances of a monetary easing by the Fed in September. Two rate adjustments are expected in 2024 of 25 basis points each.Today, investors are waiting for inflation data from the United States, which may affect the market in the coming days. The core consumer price index is projected to remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis, while the overall index will slow from 3.3% to 3.1% and grow by 0.1% after zero change last month.The Australian currency is under some pressure due to data on inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute, which fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The volume of construction permits issued in May increased from 1.9% to 5.5%, and permits for new homes — from -3.0% to 2.1%. However, the sector remains under pressure due to the high cost of borrowing from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and a significant recovery is expected only after the easing of the monetary policy of the regulator, which may not happen this year.AUD/USD Technical analysis for todayThe main forex indicators on the daily chart indicate a purchase. Bollinger bands are expanding, which indicates strong growth and a path to new highs. The MACD is rising, confirming the buy signal. Stochastic, approaching the 80 mark, signals the risks of overbought Australian dollar in the short term.It is recommended to open long positions after the breakdown and consolidation of the pair above the level of 0.6775. The target is 0.6825. We will set the stop loss at 0.6750.If the 0.6775 level is not broken, and the price bounces down, then we will wait for a breakdown and consolidation below the 0.6750 mark. In this scenario, we get a sell signal with a target of 0.6700. We will place the stop loss at ...
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