EURUSD: the "bears" have intercepted the initiative on the euroThe EURUSD is trading in a sideways trend, being at 1.0875. The currency pair is showing consolidation, having completed the decline in the previous two trading days, having moved away from April's resistance threshold. Investors are refraining from active actions in the trading session on Monday, waiting for the publication of macroeconomic data from Germany and the EU.So, the publication of the first estimate of German GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4 2022 is announced for today. Experts' preliminary expectations are inclined to zero trend, having previously increased by 0.4% and the annual rate of strengthening may decrease to 1.1% from 1.2%. In addition, analysts are focused around the announcement of the release of consumer confidence and sentiment in the EU economic environment for January. According to preliminary estimates the figures will show a slight decline to 94.6 points from 95.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0928, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.USDCHF: The U.S. currency trades in different directionsIn Asian trading the USDCHF currency pair reflects a multidirectional trend, testing 0.9200, successfully keeping moderate bullish momentum from late last week, where the "American" retreated from the local low of January 20.The market is focused around the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday, for which analysts give a cautious forecast and expect a 0.25% interest rate increase, which will signal economists that the systemic monetary tightening will end soon. Meanwhile, analysts do not rule out the possibility that the correction will continue in one step in the first half of this year, a step of 0.50%, and the U.S. financial authorities will be guided by the indicator of consumer prices and the risk of recession in the national economy.Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9050.AUDUSD: Australian consumer prices set a new recordThe AUDUSD trading instrument reflects a mixed trend, hovering around 0.7100, pending the release of a macroeconomic data set. Moreover, investors are waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB (European Central Bank) meetings announced for this week. According to preliminary estimates, U.S. officials will increase the key indicator by 0.25%, while European and British regulators will raise the value by 0.50%.At the beginning of the trading week the currency pair continues to be influenced by last week's statistics. Thus, Australia's consumer price index hit a 32-year high of 7.8% in Q4, manufacturing inflation edged up only 0.7%, down from 1.9% in the quarter, while the annualized rate of manufacturing fell to 5.8% from 6.4%, disappointing analysts who expected a decline to only 6.3%. The negative trend was driven by sharp increases in the cost of food, motor fuel, and housing, but external and internal displacement showed the highest consumption rates, 13.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the truncated annual average inflation rate reached 6.9%, setting an all-time record.Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7202, 0.7250, 0.7300.Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6950.GBPUSD: U.S. households cut spendingThe local decline in the U.S. dollar trading instrument reflects a correction at 1.2400. "The Briton is holding neutral amid comments at the UK Treasury Department.Jeremy Hunt absolutely supported the 2022 tax reform project, urging people in retirement to reenter the workforce, because overcoming inflation is only possible by increasing productive activity through new job openings. Some experts strongly condemned this initiative noting that the current situation requires reducing the tax burden, rather than calling on the population to correct the mistakes of the authorities.Resistance levels: 1.2500 and 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2260, ...
EUR/USD: the "American" recovers lossesThe single currency of the Eurozone is developing a corrective trend, but as a result of the active strengthening of USD quotations during the last three days the EUR/USD trading instrument is losing ground, testing the 1.0729 level.The current trend has a strong momentum going forward and the macroeconomic data block has not provided much support to the EUR as December retail sales slumped by 2.7% beating market expectations of -2.5% and the 2022 total was down 2.8% with an estimate of -2.7%. Excessive volatility is not expected on the European markets today and investors will want to evaluate the industrial production statistics of Germany for December, the index of which is expected to lose -0.7%.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0990.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.AUD/USD: RBA has managed to support the national currencyThe trading pair AUD/USD is developing an upward dynamic within the framework of the correction amid the loss of initiative from the "bears", which was held by them for three sessions in a row, where the instrument updated the local minimum of January 6. The Reserve Bank of Australia held a meeting which resulted in officials deciding to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, strengthening the target to 3.35% giving a boost to positive momentum.The regulator's accompanying statements hinted at the development of a further inflation-targeting program through further monetary corrections. Economists have estimated that the consumer price inflation rate could fall to 4.75% by the end of 2023 and could reach 3.0% by the end of Q2 2025. Officials have noted the resilience of fundamentals for a decline in the consumer price index over the medium term, wishing to support or boost the effectiveness of earlier measures with an additional tightening of monetary policy before the end of spring this year. However, analysts at the regulator do not see a possible recovery of economic indicators. According to the expectations of the monetary watchdogs, the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product will fall to 1.5% in the next two years. The tense situation in the segment of employment is separately noted, as a number of Australian companies continue to experience difficulties in hiring full-time employees, but a moderate positive trend has made itself felt. However, the RBA experts forecast a gradual increase in the number of unemployed to 4.5% by mid-2025 instead of the current 3.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100.Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750.USD/CAD: US labour market supported the pairThe publication of strong US labor market data at the end of the previous week allowed the USD/CAD pair to advance to 1.3470.According to the report the number of employed people, not including the AIC segment, reached 517.0 thousand in January, having surpassed 2.5 times the previous estimate of 185.0 thousand, having beaten the previous showing of 260.0 thousand, while the unemployment rate had dropped to a record 3.4%, while the market estimate was 3.6% and the previous reporting period was 3.5%.For investors in USD/CAD trades, the US dollar is of more interest, and the publication of data on the Canadian economy only adds to the upward trend. Thus, the level of approved applications for construction work in Canada fell by 7.3% month-on-month in December, against market estimates of -5.0% and the previous value of 14.9%. Meanwhile, business activity from Ivey in January strengthened considerably to 60.1 points, well above the expected 42.3 points and the previous 49.3 points.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3670.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.2970.Oil market analysisBrent benchmark crude oil is quoted at 82.40.The global market for oil products is showing a stable trend and most analysts agree that restrictive measures by the collective West to limit Russian oil have failed to show the expected result. Earlier Bloomberg published an article which recorded another update on the record of Russian oil shipments by sea. Thus, as of February 3, the daily supply rate rose by 125.0 thousand barrels to a target of 3.456 million barrels, and the main importers were India, PRC and Turkey with a share of 3.29 million barrels. Meanwhile, the pipeline supply load continues to decline, with January's value for Poland and Germany at just 120.0 barrels per day. Earlier it was reported that the G7 sanctions policy of fixing an upper ceiling on the cost of supplying refined products by sea from Russia at $100.0 and $40.0 a barrel based on category has now been extended by the accession of Japan. The sanctions came into force on 6 February, but the caps will be adjusted every two months based on market conditions.Resistance levels: 83.30, 89.00.Support levels: 79.60, ...
On Friday AUD/USD is developing a moderate decline and trying to break below the support at 0.7050. The reason for the "bearish" dynamics was the strengthening of American dollar, caused by the results of FOMC meeting and the conference of Jerome Powell, where the head of the regulator confirmed the continuation of the cycle of tightening of the monetary policy until the inflation rate reaches the target of 2%.The dollar was also buoyed up by the release of the unemployment claims report, which showed a decline in claims over the week from 186,000 to 183,000."The Aussie gets support from the Australian and Chinese statistics. The Australian Services Business Activity Index for January rose from 48.3 to 48.6 ppts. A traditionally difficult situation in the Australian housing market, which has been exacerbated for the second year in a row by rising inflation and the RBA's rate hike.Technical Analysis for AUD/USDBollinger Band indicator remains in daily growth phase while MACD is declining in positive range and has formed a firm sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in a flat and does not give any signals.With a confident breakdown of the support at 0.7050, we form a sell with Take Profit at 0.6950. Stop loss is set at 0.7100.If the pair turns, consolidation above 0.7100 will indicate this. In this case we buy with a target level of 0.7202. Protective stop is moved to ...
AUD/USD analysis on January 30, 2023On Monday AUD/USD demonstrates a versatile movement near the level of 0.7100. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, as the week ahead is full of fundamental events, including meetings of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and the United States labor market report.Late last week Australia released its consumer inflation report, which showed a 7.8% increase in the fourth quarter, a 32-year record. At the same time, manufacturing inflation was up just 0.7%.The driver of consumer inflation is higher food and automobile fuel prices. Real estate prices are rising again.The Reserve Bank of Australia plans to launch an AUDN stabelcoin based on Ethereum blockchain, which will be fully backed by the local dollar, in the middle of the year.In the U.S., the consumer income/expenditure report came out last Friday. Household income fell 0.2% in December while spending rose. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 64.9 ppts in January from 64.6 ppts, which was better than expected.Technical analysis of AUD/USDThe Bollinger indicator is rising steadily on the Daily.MACD indicator is in the positive area, but its histogram shows decline.Stochastic oscillator from the top down has broken through the 80% level and is coming out of the overbought area.If the sellers are able to consolidate below 0.7050, then let's go short with the target at 0.6950. Stop-loss is taken out at 0.7100.In case of a pullback from 0.7050, we wait for prices to consolidate above 0.7100, and only after that we open long positions with a target at 0.7200. Stop-loss is placed at ...