AUD/USD: short-term outlook provides for mixed dynamicsThe AUD/USD pair is demonstrating a minor downward correction, showing mixed movement in the short-term horizon, being around the level of 0.6420. At the beginning of the week, the pressure on the instrument remains, although the economic context from the US looks neutral.Meanwhile, the Australian currency gained support after Friday's business activity data from Australia: the services index from Commonwealth Bank rose from 47.8 to 50.5 points in September, while the manufacturing index from S&P Global fell from 49.6 to 48.2 points. The composite business activity index from Commonwealth Bank rose from 48.0 to 50.2 points. Investors' attention was drawn to the quarterly report from the Australian Financial Regulatory Council (CFR). It noted that with a strong slowdown in China's economy, there could be implications for trade between the countries and interest in risky assets, but for the moment the outlook looks stable, even given the marked increase in interest rates.Resistance levels: 0.6425, 0.6450, 0.6472, 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6379, 0.6356, 0.6325.USD/CHF: US dollar updated the May high in assetsThe USD/CHF pair is showing moderate strengthening, developing a strong bullish vector for the short-term horizon and reaching the late May peaks. The currency instrument is approaching the level of 0.9120, trying to overcome it, while the market is actively searching for new stimuli for the movement.The market continues to adapt to the rate decisions made by leading banks last week. In particular, the Swiss National Bank, like the Bank of England, kept the rate at 1.75%, contrary to experts' expectations of a possible increase by 25 basis points. In the attached commentary, the bank's executives expressed hope for the continuation of global economic growth, which, in their opinion, stimulates GDP growth. However, they also emphasized the risks that may require the adjustment of the monetary strategy in the future. The Swiss National Bank expects inflation at 2.2% this year, with a forecast for it to remain at that level in 2024, with a further slowdown to 1.9% by 2025.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9077, 0.9050, 0.9025.Gold analysisThe precious metal is on the decline this week, reaching the level of 1910.00. The US dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest hawkish statements of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) representatives, indicating that the process of tightening the financial policy is not over yet and the probability of a rate cut is extremely low.Yesterday, Neel Kashkari, head of the FRB Minneapolis, stressed that given the current resilience of the US economy to the regulator's decisions, additional rate increases are likely to be needed to stabilize inflation towards the target threshold of 2.0%. According to Austan Goolsby, head of the FRB Chicago, the current inflationary increase is a bigger challenge for the US economy than the slowdown caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Overall, the Fed officials' words hint that despite keeping the rate at 5.50% in September, the fight against inflation is not over. They also prepare the market for a possible rate hike this year. Specialists believe that rates will be kept at an elevated level for an extended period of time. This policy of the Fed favors the dollar against other assets.Resistance levels: 1927.85, 1953.12.Support levels: 1906.25, 1890.62, 1875.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent crude oil prices are sagging for the second trading week in a row, having retreated around 94.90 due to monetary reasons. The financial market is worried about the strategy of the world's leading banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, to maintain high interest rates for a long time, fearing that it will deepen the economic recession and reduce demand for oil from the leading importers of raw materials.The cost of "black gold" is also negatively affected by the lifting of some restrictions on exports of gasoline and diesel fuel from Russia, originally introduced to ensure stability in the domestic market. In particular, shipments of high-sulfur diesel are now allowed, which reduces the shortage on the market before the onset of winter, causing a downturn in the prices of oil and related products.Resistance levels: 93.75, 96.88, 100.00.Support levels: 89.70, 87.50, ...
Trading idea for AUD/USD for August 31, 2023AUD/USD spent Thursday's Asian session in consolidation near 0.6480. The Australian dollar is supported by weak macroeconomic reports from the United States.Yesterday, a labor market report from ADP was released, according to which 177 thousand jobs were created in the country in August, with a forecast of 195 thousand. The July indicator is 371 thousand . Wage growth was 5.9%. This is the weakest dynamics since October 2021.Investors are waiting for the release on Friday of official statistics - Non-farm Payrolls. If it turns out to be as weak, it is unlikely that the Fed will risk raising the rate at the September meeting.In addition, a correction of the US GDP estimate for the second quarter was released yesterday. The indicator was revised from 2.4% to 2.1%.After the news was released, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.0%, which negatively affected the dollar exchange rate, but supported the growth of risky assets.Today, demand for the "Aussie" has grown after the release of economic releases from China, Australia's main trading partner. The PMI of the manufacturing sector of China in August recovered to 49.7, and the index of the service sector remained at 51 p.Last week, the new head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, made a speech, during which she confirmed the regulator's intentions to continue tightening financial conditions until a complete victory over inflation.We believe that AUD/USD will continue to strengthen and we suggest placing an order on forex to buy a pair from a downward pullbackBuy-limit 0.6450 take-profit 0.6700 stop-loss ...
AUD/USD: Bank of Australia maintains moderate expectations for the growth of the national economyWith the US dollar steady, the AUD/USD currency pair is developing corrective sentiment at 0.6577.At the end of the previous week, the Bank of Australia released its quarterly monetary policy statement, where high inflation took center stage. Officials emphasized the slowdown in food price growth in the recent period, but rising rental costs continue to have a significant impact on households. The service sector is recovering at a slower pace than analysts had expected, as confirmed by the business activity report, where the index fell to 47.9 points in July from 50.3 points previously. Against this background, officials of the institution updated their forecasts for the national economy: they assume that at the end of the current year the gross domestic product (GDP) will amount to 0.9%, while core inflation and unemployment will remain at 3.9%, which will not allow the Australian dollar exchange rate to recover significantly.Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6384.Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6770.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada is convinced that the adjustments of corporate markups did not affect inflation dynamicsAt the morning session on August 7, the U.S. currency shows moderate strengthening, continuing its growth and reaching a two-month peak. The current USD/CAD rate is approaching 1.3380, reacting to the latest reports on the state of the labor markets in the US and Canada.Note that the US statistics showed the creation of 187.0k new non-farm jobs, which is slightly higher than the 185.0k growth in the previous month. The average payroll figure for July remained at 0.4% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year, contrary to market expectations of a decline to 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%. On the other hand, Canadian data showed a decrease in the number of jobs by 6.4 thousand in July after an increase of 59.9 thousand a month earlier. Experts had forecast growth of 21.1 thousand. Average wages increased by 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.9% increase in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%, reflecting the tightness in Canada's labor market. The business activity index from Ivey decreased from 50.2 to 48.6 points in July, falling short of the projected 52.7 points.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3224.Gold pricesGold quotes (XAU/USD) are experiencing a correction, reaching the level of 1936.97. This comes on the back of last Friday's slowdown, when the US dollar became more vulnerable after the July labor market report.At the same time, according to a recent report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions in gold declined to 164.9k over the past week from the previous value of 173.6k. Analyzing this trend, we can see that swap dealers have a balance of 90,411 thousand on the side of "bulls", while "bears" control 250,580 thousand. Last week sellers increased their contracts by 677, while buyers added 3,818. This dynamics indicates a stable equilibrium that prevents a more decisive movement of quotes.Resistance levels: 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55.Support levels: 1930.00, 1923.06, 1915.00, 1907.55.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil prices are just below the level of 86.0 dollars per barrel.The rise in Brent Crude Oil prices is being driven by increased interest in oil contracts. A fresh report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that net speculative bets reached 241.9k, up from 225.2k a week earlier, reaching their highest level since late April. At the time, Brent prices were around $85.0 a barrel. Analysis of trading data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that last week's average volume of transactions totaled approximately 751.4k, with the total number of open contracts exceeding 1.6 million, an increase from the previous month's data (640.5k and 1.2 million, respectively). This increase in trading activity serves as a supportive factor for oil prices.Support levels: 84.00, 79.60.Resistance levels: 87.10, ...
AUD/USD: RBA did not tighten monetary parametersIn the context of rising inflation and declining real estate activity in Australia, the AUD/USD exchange rate is on the decline, approaching the level of 0.6478.Fresh statistics for June on building permits show a negative trend, coming in at -7.7%, worse than the forecasted -7.0%. The prior reading was corrected from 20.6% to 20.5%. The number of mortgages originated decreased by 2.8%, which is more than the projected decrease of 1.7% and the prior reading of 5.1%.The key event of the week was the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting. Within the framework of this event, the interest rate remained at the maximum level in 11 years at 4.10%, despite the fact that analysts assumed its increase to 4.35%. Bank officials emphasized that hawkish policy has significantly reduced consumer demand, but additional monetary stimulus tightening may be needed to effectively fight inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015.Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6285.USD/JPY: long-term dynamics will remain in the "green" zoneUSD/JPY is near 142.60 and aims to establish itself above the barrier of 142.15, in order to continue the upward trend after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision.The yen attempted to strengthen its position against the US dollar, with USD/JPY falling to 138.70, but the currency instrument failed to hold at these levels. As the borrowing rate remained in the negative range, investors started to sell the yen again, which led to the growth of USD/JPY pair quotations to the level of 142.15, where traders are currently trying to consolidate above this point. This financial instrument received some support in light of the publication of June statistics on industrial production and retail sales in Japan. Industrial production increased by 2.0% after a -2.2% decline in the previous month, but did not reach the 2.4% growth expected by analysts. Overall, the increase in domestic demand continues to drive Japanese industry. On the other hand, retail sales rose from 5.8% to 5.9%, indicating the stability of the country's economy amid the global economic crisis.Resistance levels: 145.50, 148.75.Support levels: 138.70, 137.50.Gold pricesQuotes of the precious metal are currently developing a correction, moving in a horizontal trend at the level of 1960.0.Investors are waiting for the upcoming summit of the leaders of the BRICS countries, which will be held in Johannesburg from August 22 to 24. It should be mentioned that at the last meeting the issue of creating a domestic independent currency was raised, which will facilitate trade operations and reduce the attachment to the dollar and euro in international settlements. It is expected that its value will be formed on the basis of a basket of national currencies, the weight of which will be correlated with the level of gross domestic product (GDP), the amount of international reserves, the balance of trade and the size of public debt. Most experts are of the opinion that if gold becomes the equivalent of this currency, its quotations may increase significantly, as the demand for this precious metal will increase significantly.Support levels: 1940.0, 1902.0.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2020.0.Crude Oil Market AnalysisBrent Crude Oil prices have been climbing since late June, hovering around the three-month peak at 85.10.At the moment, OPEC+ exporting countries continue to reduce production of "black gold". Saudi Arabia cut production by 860.0 thousand barrels per day, with Riyadh expected to extend voluntary restrictions again for September. Meanwhile, the world's leading economies are showing signs of recovery and therefore increasing energy demand. According to the latest data, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, beating preliminary estimates of 1.8%. Eurozone GDP added 0.6%, exceeding experts' expectations of 0.5%. However, the speed of recovery of the Chinese economy has slowed down significantly, but experts believe that the measures to stimulate domestic demand announced by the Chinese government are supporting it.Resistance levels: 87.50, 89.70.Support levels: 81.25, 77.15, ...