AUD/USD analysis on April 28, 2025The Australian dollar is showing moderate growth against the US dollar at the beginning of the new trading week, consolidating near the level of 0.6390. The dynamics in the market remains restrained, as participants prefer to wait for the emergence of new factors that can set the direction of price movement. Today, investors' attention will be focused on the publication of the April industrial PMI from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which, according to expectations, will remain in the negative zone at -16.3 points.The key event for the Australian dollar will be the publication of inflation data in Australia for the first quarter of 2025. According to forecasts, the annual growth in consumer prices will slow down from 2.4% to 2.2%, while the quarterly figure will increase from 0.2% to 0.8%. A slight correction in the core inflation index from the Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected: a quarterly increase from 0.5% to 0.6% and a decrease in the annual rate from 3.2% to 3.0%. If the actual data exceeds expectations, this may reduce the likelihood of further monetary easing in the country, especially against the background of ongoing uncertainty related to US trade policy.Additional attention will be focused on the publication of the business activity index in China. The manufacturing PMI is forecast to decline from 50.5 to 49.9 points, reflecting weakening activity in the sector. The index in the services and construction sector, calculated by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Procurement, according to analysts, will decrease slightly from 50.8 to 50.7 points.US data: focus on inflation and employmentImportant macroeconomic indicators from the United States will also be released on Wednesday. ADP company will present a report on employment in the private sector: the rate of job creation is expected to decrease from 155 thousand to 130 thousand. At the same time, investors will receive April data on the core price index of personal consumption expenditures, a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Preliminary estimates indicate a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicator from 0.4% to 0.1%.Comments from the Fed's representatives also affect market expectations. Managing Director Christopher Waller, in an interview with Bloomberg, noted that the impact of the new tariffs on the economy will only manifest itself in the second half of the year. According to him, the duties can help accelerate inflation, while putting pressure on the labor market and slowing economic growth. In turn, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack, stressed the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy in an environment of high uncertainty.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger bands continue to show growth, while the narrowing of the range indicates a possible transition to a more pronounced movement in the near future. The MACD indicator shows positive dynamics, maintaining a weak buy signal: the histogram remains above the signal line. The stochastic indicator is steadily turning up in the middle zone, which speaks in favor of maintaining the upward momentum on the short-term horizon.Trading RecommendationsSales of the instrument may be justified in the event of a breakdown of the 0.6373 level downwards with a target at 0.6300. It is recommended to set a protective stop-loss order at 0.6408.An alternative scenario assumes a return of steady growth with an upward breakdown of the 0.6438 level, which will pave the way for a move to 0.6500 with a similar stop loss level at ...
The Australian dollar is showing a moderate decline against the US currency, correcting around 0.6341 after recently rising to its highest levels since the end of February. The pressure on the instrument is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic data from Australia, where the labor market situation has shown contradictory signals. March statistics recorded an increase in the number of employed by 32.2 thousand after February's drop of 57.5 thousand, which was lower than the projected 40.0 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%, which is still better than the expected 4.2%.The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a cautious stance in the minutes of the last meeting, stressing the inability to determine the timing of rate changes due to the continuing uncertainty caused by US trade policy. The regulator has clearly outlined the need to continue fighting inflation, eliminating the possibility of premature monetary policy easing.The Australian dollar was positively influenced by encouraging data from China, where industrial production growth accelerated to 7.7% and retail sales increased to 5.9%. China's gross domestic product grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations.There were mixed signals from the United States - a 1.4% increase in retail sales in March temporarily supported the dollar, but a 0.3% decline in industrial production indicated possible problems in the real sector of the economy.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows that the daily AUD/USD chart continues to expand the trading range while maintaining bullish signals. The MACD continues to generate buy signals, while the stochastic oscillator indicator turns down, indicating the likelihood of a short-term correction.For traders considering a bearish scenario, the signal for entry is a breakdown of the 0.6324 mark downwards with the prospect of a move to 0.6274. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at the level of 0.6350.An alternative bullish scenario involves entering on a rebound from the 0.6324 support followed by consolidation above 0.6350, which opens the way to testing the 0.6408 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for long positions at ...
AUD/USD is showing a moderate correction around 0.6293, while maintaining an overall uptrend. The move comes amid a partial softening of the US administration's rhetoric on trade duties, although the base rate of 10% remains in effect for most US trading partners, with the exception of China, for which tariffs have been sharply increased to 145%. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao criticized this policy, noting its destabilizing effect on the global economy and calling for resistance to "unilateral protectionist measures."The Australian currency was supported by positive business activity data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In February, total turnover increased to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%, although growth was observed in only six of the thirteen industries. The largest growth was demonstrated by the manufacturing industry (+4.6%), the transport sector (+2.4%) and media communications (+2.2%). At the same time, the extractive industry decreased by 2.5%, and the segment of art and recreation - by 2.7%. In annual terms, the manufacturing industry shows impressive growth of 14.2%, while the extractive sector lost 6.3%.The US dollar index sank to 99.40. Last week, the currency came under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts, despite the temporary lifting of duties for most countries. New restrictions on semiconductor exports announced by the Trump administration have added to the uncertainty, although promises of exemptions for individual companies have somewhat mitigated the negative effect.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayFrom a technical point of view, AUD/USD continues to move in the ascending channel of 0.6250-0.6490. The indicators show a weakening of bearish signals: the fast moving averages on the Alligator are turning up, and the AO oscillator on the chart is forming several ascending bars in the negative zone.Trading recommendations- For buyers: we should wait for the pair to consolidate above 0.6340. The nearest target will be 0.6530. We put the stop loss at 0.6300- For sellers: entry is advisable when breaking down 0.6260 with a target of 0.6035 and a stop loss at ...
Intraday analysis: pressure remainsAt the moment, the intraday direction of movement of the AUD/USD pair remains downward. The continuation of the sell-off, which began at the level of 0.6941, forms a target in the area of 0.5860, corresponding to 61.8% of the projection of the movement from 0.6941 to 0.6087, which started from the point of 0.6388. At the same time, a breakdown of local resistance at 0.6062 may temporarily weaken the bearish momentum, putting the pair's dynamics into a phase of short-term consolidation without changing the overall trend.Medium-term view: confirmation of a downtrendFrom the point of view of the medium-term structure, the current decline from 0.6941 recorded in 2024 is considered as a link in a broader downward trend that started from the 2021 maximum at 0.8006. The next target in this trend is the 0.5806 level, which is a 61.8% projection of the downward momentum from 0.8006 to 0.6169, which started from the local maximum of 0.6941. The technical picture continues to point to the predominance of bearish sentiment.The overall picture: the downward trend persistsThe overall outlook for the AUD/USD pair remains negative until the quotes overcome the resistance around 0.6388. This level plays a key role in determining the direction of the medium-term trend: only consolidation above it can cast doubt on the current downward structure. In the meantime, the trading instrument maintains a steady downward trend, and any attempts at growth are perceived as corrective waves within a bearish ...