Against the background of the decline in the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair turned around and forms a local growth, trading at 0.7364.The head of the government of the capital district of Australia, Andrew Barr, announced the introduction of an immediate quarantine due to the fact that the first case of coronavirus in a Canberra resident in thirteen months was confirmed the day before. The authorities are afraid of the resumption of the pandemic in the country and are ready to go to any restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease. At the moment, it is difficult to imagine what this quarantine threatens the country's recovering economy, but if the virus cannot be contained, it can cause serious problems for companies that have just reached payback levels.The main influence on the dynamics of the instrument is still exerted by the US dollar, which began to decline the day before. The expectations of analysts and officials of the US Federal Reserve were not met, as consumer price inflation remained at high levels during the reporting period, and did not decrease as expected. The monthly growth rate of the consumer price index was 0.5%, while the annual indicator remained at 5.4%, and did not slow down to 5.3%, as expected. At a minimum, the value has stabilized, but this is not enough for the regulator to reconsider its rhetoric regarding quantitative easing.Support and resistance levelsThe price is trying to change the trend, forming a local side channel within the forex forecast. Technical indicators remain in the state of a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA of the alligator indicator has begun to narrow, and the AO histogram is approaching the transition level.Resistance levels: 0.7407, 0.7560.Support levels: 0.7321, 0.7200.Trading ScenariosThus, AUD/USD forex forecast for August 13-16, 2021 in the event of a reversal and growth of the asset, as well as consolidation above the local resistance at 0.7407, buy positions with a target of 0.7560 will be relevant. The stop loss is 0.7350. Implementation period: 7 days or more.If the asset continues to decline, as well as consolidation below the support level at 0.7321, it is necessary to form sell positions with a target at 0.7200. The stop loss is ...
By the end of July, the retail volume in Australia decreased by 2.7% to 29.8 billion Australian dollars. In the previous month, the indicator fell by 1.8%. The analysts surveyed expected a reduction in July retail by 2.3%. Retail trade accounts for 18% of Australia's gross domestic product. The decline in this sector of the economy began after another tightening of restrictive measures in connection with the rapid spread of a new strain of "delta" across the country. Many stores have closed again. Analysts expect the trend of declining retail sales to continue in the coming months, as restrictions were recently introduced in two more major cities of the country. Retail sales in New South Wales fell by 9% last month. Now analysts expect about the same drop in sales in Victoria by the end of August. The Australian government intends to open the country's economy only after the proportion of vaccinated residents is ...
On the daily chart, the pair has overcome the" round "level of 0.7200 and is not far from the next "round" level of 0.7300. The resistance at this level is strengthened by the fact that there is a minimum of July near it. In addition, the size of the rebound has now reached 150 points, which is a lot for ordinary movements of the pair without corrections. Although the pair's relative highs continue to decline, a sharp reversal may suggest a continuation of the movement in the short term. The next strong resistance will be at 0.7400-support in early July and resistance in late July and early August. According to ADX, the downward trend continues: the excess of DM-over DM+ is large, ADX is at a high level. The MACD histogram remained in the negative zone, although it is close to the zero level.On the four-hour chart, the growth that occurs after approaching 0.7100 slowed down. The pair met resistance at 0.7270-near the highs on August 18. A large size of the growth wave without corrections (more than 150 points) can lead to a pullback when the wave stopped - this can happen now. However, in the broader perspective, the current growth from 0.7100 is more likely a reversal of the trend than a correction to the previous decline. Based on this, overcoming the level of 0.7270 is more likely than a pullback from the initial correction point above 0.7100. According to the directional movement indicators, the trend has become growth: DM+ is higher than DM+, the ADX level remains relatively high, the MACD histogram is in a positive zone, the MACD line has a positive ...
According to Markit Economics, activity in the Australian manufacturing sector continues to grow. However, the pace of this growth has slowed down slightly. The PMI value fell this month to 51.7 points, which was the lowest level of the indicator for the last 14 months. In July, it was at the level of 56.9 points. The survey participants reported a negative impact on the production of supply disruptions. Demand has also declined. This is evidenced by a decrease in the volume of new orders. The deadlines for the execution of applications by suppliers have increased. At the same time, they are growing at the fastest pace since April last year. The degree of price pressure decreased slightly in August. However, production costs grew at a rate that is significantly higher than the average value. Despite the existing problems, many representatives of companies positively assess the prospects for the next 12 months. The PMI in the Australian services sector fell this month by 0.9 points to 43.3 ...
