Trading signals and online forecasts AUD/USD

EUR/USD: markets expect ECB signals on further policyThe EUR/USD pair is near the 1.0510 level on October 18 and shows a slight increase of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. Market participants expect the publication of inflation data in the eurozone and the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the interest rate, which has a significant impact on the dynamics of the pair.The economic situation in Europe remains under pressure: the inflation rate in September fell to 4.3% in annual terms, which is lower than the forecast of 4.5%, but this figure remains well above the target level of 2%. At the same time, core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, also fell to 4.5%. Markets expect the ECB to decide to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, however, signals may be given regarding further tightening of monetary policy, which puts pressure on the euro.In the United States, market participants' attention is focused on publications on the state of the economy, in particular, on data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which in October may drop to 49.8 points, which is below the threshold of 50 points, indicating a reduction in activity. Earlier data on inflation in the United States turned out to be lower than expected: the consumer price index (CPI) in September amounted to 3.7% year-on-year against 3.6% a month earlier. In addition, the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%, which also supports the Fed's confidence in maintaining tight monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0480, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Aussie is strengthening amid rising economic indicatorsThe AUD/USD pair at the time of the trading session on October 18 shows an upward trend, holding near the 0.6380 mark, which is 0.67% more than in the previous session. The main driver of growth was the improvement of the situation in the commodity market, as well as the stabilization of the economic situation in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains unstable, although there are signs of recovery. In particular, recent data on the unemployment rate for September showed a slight decrease from 3.7% to 3.6%, which was unexpected for analysts. In addition, retail sales showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis, which also exceeded the forecasts of economists who expected an increase of 0.2%. An important point is the growing business confidence index, which reached 10.2 points in October, which is the best result since the beginning of the year.One of the factors influencing the growth of the Australian dollar was the recent statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on a possible interest rate hike before the end of the year. The bank's management continues to monitor inflation indicators: the consumer price index (CPI) for the third quarter was 4.9%, which is a higher level than predicted (4.7%). At the same time, the RBA expressed its readiness to further tighten monetary policy if inflation continues to remain above target levels. At the same time, the market expects the publication of data on business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector (PMI), which may have an impact on the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6420, 0.6480.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6280.NZD/USD: the pair is down on the back of news from New ZealandAs of October 18, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, declining to the level of 0.5930. The pair lost about 0.45% compared to the previous trading session, due to a combination of weakness of the New Zealand dollar and the strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to be under pressure due to weak macroeconomic statistics and expectations of a further slowdown in the country's economic growth. Last week, consumer price data (CPI) for the third quarter of 2024 were published, which showed a slowdown in inflation from 3.6% to 2.8% in annual terms. This figure turned out to be worse than market expectations at 3.0%, which increased concerns about an economic slowdown. In addition, the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 4.1% from 3.9% in August 2024, which also put pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Business economic confidence continues to remain at low levels, and the business activity index (PMI) for September fell to 48.6 points, signaling a slowdown in growth in the country's manufacturing sector.The Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also signaled that it may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which added pressure on the currency. At the last meeting, the regulator left the key interest rate at 5.5%, but in his comments pointed to a possible rate cut in 2024 to stimulate the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5870.Silver market analysisAs of October 18, 2024, silver quotes continue to show mixed dynamics, trading around the $22.30 per ounce mark after attempts to recover at the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD pair is correcting after a slight increase, which followed a sharp decline recorded last week. During the current trading session, the silver price increased by 0.45% compared to the previous session.The economic environment remains challenging, with an emphasis on expectations of central bank interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors. Investors continue to analyze the dynamics of inflation data from the United States, which affects the dollar's position, in turn affecting commodities such as silver. Last week, the US Federal Reserve announced the possibility of further easing monetary policy, which caused a wave of expectations among market participants. At the same time, inflation data (CPI) for September showed an increase in consumer prices by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts, which supports the US currency and puts pressure on the precious metals market.On the international stage, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor affecting silver. Conflict situations, in particular around Israel and Lebanon, increase uncertainty in the markets and stimulate demand for protective assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, China announced new measures to stimulate the economy, including support for industrial production, which could potentially increase demand for industrial metals, including silver.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70.Support levels: 22.10, ...

AUD/USD ends the week with unstable dynamics, trading near the key level of 0.6700. The Australian dollar is trying to continue its upward movement, which began with a rebound from the lows on September 12 after the publication of positive economic data.In September, Australia recorded an increase in the number of employed by 64.1 thousand people, which significantly exceeded the expectations of analysts who predicted 25 thousand. Full—time employment increased by 51.6 thousand, and part-time employment by 12.5 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while a slight increase to 4.2% was expected. The labor force participation rate increased from 67.1% to 67.2%.Positive statistics from China also support the Australian dollar. In September, industrial production in China increased to 5.4% against the projected 4.6%, and retail sales increased to 3.2%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%. China's GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and by 4.6% year-on-year, which is in line with experts' forecasts.Today, the market's attention will be focused on data on the US housing market, which may affect the further dynamics of the pair. Analysts expect a slight decrease in the number of construction permits issued from 1.47 million to 1.46 million, and construction may decrease to 1.35 million.Technical analysis on the daily AUD/USD chart gives a contradictory picture. The Bollinger band indicator indicates the possibility of corrective growth in the near future, despite the current downtrend. The MACD retains a sell signal, although it is trying to turn up. Stochastic signals a possible oversold pair, which indicates the likelihood of a short-term upward reversal.It is recommended to open long positions after the 0.6732 level is broken up. The target is 0.6800. We set the stop loss at 0.6700.An alternative scenario is that when the 0.6675 level breaks down, we open sales with a target of 0.6622. We will put the stop loss at ...

On Tuesday, AUD/USD shows a smooth decline and tests the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown downwards. Yesterday, the instrument was also under pressure and reached new local lows since October 10, before the bulls temporarily regained some of the lost positions.The main pressure on the pair at the beginning of the week was exerted by economic data from China, which increased concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The volume of exports in September decreased from 8.7% to 2.4%, which was lower than the forecast of 6.0%. Imports also slowed from 0.5% to 0.3%, while analysts expected 0.9%. As a result, China's trade surplus decreased from $91.02 billion to $81.71 billion, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts.Earlier, China published inflation data for September. The consumer price index decreased from 0.6% to 0.4% year—on-year, and from 0.4% to 0.0% on a monthly basis. The producer price index fell by 2.8% year-on-year after a previous decline of 1.8%. These data reinforce concerns about the stagnation of China's economy, despite government stimulus measures that have so far produced only limited results.On Thursday, Australia will publish labor market data for September: employment growth is expected to slow from 47.5 thousand to 25.0 thousand, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.2%. On the same day, statistics on applications for unemployment benefits, retail sales and industrial production will be released in the United States. Retail sales are expected to grow from 0.1% to 0.3%, while industrial production will decline by 0.1% after an increase of 0.8%.On the daily chart, the Bollinger band indicator shows a steady decline. The MACD indicator continues to give a sell signal. Stochastic, on the contrary, shows an upward trendShort positions can be considered after a confident breakdown down the 0.6700 level with a target of 0.6622. We will set the stop loss at 0.6732.If the price bounces off the 0.6700 level and breaks through the 0.6732 mark, we will get a buy signal with a target of 0.6800 and a stop loss at ...

During the Asian session on Friday, AUD/USD continues to decline and is trading near the level of 0.6745, remaining under pressure from weak Australian economic data.According to a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), total business activity decreased by 0.7% in August. The decline occurred in seven sectors, with mining (-3.5%) and media (-2.9%) showing the largest declines. At the same time, construction (1.3%), energy (1.2%) and services (1.5%) showed growth. Compared to last year, positive dynamics is observed in twelve of the thirteen sectors, with leaders in the energy sector (17.6%) and the media (8.6%). The only industry that showed a decline over the year is the mining industry (-5.9%).The US dollar index, on the contrary, remains in an uptrend and is trading at a maximum of 102.60. This is due to the adjustment of the September consumer price index — the monthly change was 0.2%, and the annual decrease from 2.5% to 2.4%. On the contrary, the base index excluding volatile categories increased from 3.2% to 3.3%. This may affect the Fed's decision to cut the interest rate at the November meeting in favor of 25 basis points instead of 50.On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is located near the support line of the channel with the boundaries of 0.7000–0.6700.Technical indicators indicate a strengthening of the sell signal. The fast EMA lines on the alligator begin to cross the signal line, and the awesome oscillator indicator drops into the sales zone.We will consider short positions after the price settles below 0.6710. We consider 0.6580 to be the nearest target. We will set the stop loss at 0.6760.Purchases can be opened when the price is fixed above 0.6780 with a target of 0.6910 and a stop loss at ...

EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, ...

EUR/USD: inflation in the eurozone has fallen to a three-year lowDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows a steady strengthening, rising to the 1.1165 mark and trying to gain a foothold above it.This week, investors' attention was focused on inflation data in the eurozone. In August, the consumer price index rose by 2.2% year-on-year, which was the lowest since July 2021. On a monthly basis, inflation growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1%. Core inflation increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating continued pressure on prices. These figures confirm that inflation remains above the ECB's 2% target, despite some positive dynamics. The lowest inflation rates were observed in Lithuania (0.8%), Latvia (0.9%) and Ireland (1.1%), and the highest in Romania (5.3%) and Belgium (4.3%). The main factor in the increase in inflation was services, which rose by 1.88 percentage points, as well as food, energy and tobacco products, which added 0.46 percentage points. The ECB previously predicted that inflation could increase again in the second half of 2024, as the impact of fluctuations in energy prices gradually decreases. The bank expects inflation to reach 2.5% by 2024, and 2.2% and 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for October 17, and market participants assume that another reduction in interest rates may follow before the end of the year to maintain economic activity.Support levels: 1.1130, 1.1000.Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1330.GBP/USD: the Bank of England rate is fixed at 5.00%During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair shows an upward movement, trading around the 1.3295 mark, which is facilitated by the market reaction to the results of the Bank of England meeting.The day before, eight of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the key interest rate at 5.00%. Recall that in August, the regulator lowered the rate from a 16-year high. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that inflationary pressure is easing, and the country's economic dynamics remains within expectations, which gave rise to forecasts of a possible rate cut in November. Bailey stressed the importance of a "gradual" approach to monetary policy easing to avoid a negative impact on the economy. The latest statistics in August turned out to be ambiguous. The consumer price index rose to 0.3% from 0.2%, maintaining annual dynamics at 2.2%. Core inflation increased to 3.6%, exceeding forecasts of 3.5%. However, the retail price index slowed from 3.6% to 3.4% year-on-year, although the monthly figure increased from 0.1% to 0.6%. Economists also note a decrease in activity in the country: GDP has not shown growth for the second month in a row, while an increase of 0.2% was expected. In addition, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous indicator of -1.4% and significantly worse than forecasts of -0.2%. On a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.8% after a similar increase in June.Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3040.Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3570.USD/CHF: SECO forecasts a slowdown in the Swiss economyAfter a significant decline in August, the USD/CHF pair remains in the correction phase, trading at 0.8466. The Swiss franc remains stable, but its further growth is limited against the background of weak economic data.Yesterday, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) published an updated forecast for the development of the national economy. It is estimated that in 2024 the growth rate will remain below average and will amount to 1.2%. In 2025, a gradual increase to 1.6% is projected, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.7%. The main driver of growth will be increased consumer demand, and inflation will decrease to 1.2%, which is a more optimistic forecast compared to previous calculations of 1.4%. In 2025, the price growth rate is expected to be 0.7%, which is also better than the previous forecast of 1.1%. Experts expect the labor market to strengthen, but the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 2.4% until the end of this year.Resistance levels: 0.8510, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8330.AUD/USD: the Australian labor market has strengthened AUD's positionThe AUD/USD pair is showing an upward correction, trading at 0.6816. The Australian dollar is showing moderate growth, supported by positive labor market statistics.According to data for August, the number of unemployed decreased by 10 thousand, and employment increased by 47 thousand, which allowed keeping the unemployment rate at 4.2%. The share of the economically active population reached a record high of 67.1%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 64.3%, which is almost equal to the historical maximum of 64.4% recorded in November 2023. Such indicators indicate a high demand for jobs, despite the limited number of vacancies, which hinders the more active development of the employment sector. Meanwhile, the index of leading indicators from the University of Melbourne remains at 0.0% for the second month in a row, indicating uncertainty in the economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 24, when the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will already be known. At the same time, analysts suggest that Australian officials may refrain from changing the current rate at this meeting.Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6950.Support levels: 0.6790, ...

EUR/USD: movement below the resistance line of the channel 1.1260–1.0950The EUR/USD pair maintains an uptrend, trading at 1.1115, and updates the lows of September 13 against the background of high volatility after the announcement of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.Despite stable macroeconomic indicators in the eurozone, the euro is showing a corrective movement, trying to return to growth. In August, the consumer price index in the region increased by only 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.2%. Core inflation also fell from 2.9% to 2.8%, which supported the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%. Nevertheless, with inflation above 2.2%, the risks to the economy remain.The US dollar is near an annual low, trading at 100.70 on the USDX index. Yesterday, the Fed representatives reduced the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points to 4.75–5.00%, which coincided with the expectations of most analysts. The decision was supported by positive data on the real estate market: the number of construction permits issued in August increased from 1.406 million to 1.475 million, and the volume of construction of new homes increased from 1.237 million to 1.356 million, indicating a retreat from historical lows. The Fed also revised the forecast for the unemployment rate for 2024 from 4.0% to 4.4%, and for 2025 from 4.2% to 4.4%. Experts expect another interest rate cut before the end of the year, most likely in December, to give the regulator time to assess the impact of the measures already taken.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1260.Support levels: 1.1090, 1.1000.GBP/USD: attempt to break through the 1.3258 levelThe GBP/USD pair is holding near the 1.3259 level after the announcement of the results of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.The Bank of England's monetary policy decision is expected to be published today at 13:00 (GMT+2). Experts assume that the interest rate will remain at 5.00%. However, if the statements of the representatives of the Bank of England turn out to be "hawkish", this may give the pound additional support. Investors' attention is also focused on the recent UK inflation data for August. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% after a decrease of -0.2% in the previous month, maintaining the annual rate at 2.2%. The core CPI index accelerated to 3.6%, which exceeded market expectations of 3.5%. The retail price index (RPI) also showed an increase — from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis, and slightly adjusted to 3.5% on an annual basis.The long-term trend for GBP/USD remains upward. After reaching a maximum in the area of 1.3258 in August, the pair went into a downward correction, which stopped at the support level of 1.3005. A new upward movement began from this point, and the August maximum was updated yesterday. If the pair can gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3258, further growth is likely with a target at 1.3400. A breakdown of this mark will open the way to the February 2022 maximum around 1.3630. If the pair does not overcome the 1.3258 level, we can expect a downward correction with the first target at 1.3605. If the price falls below this mark, a deeper decline to the support of 1.2857 is possible.Resistance levels: 1.3258, 1.3400, 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3005, 1.2857, 1.2680.AUD/USD: RBA announced a three-year project on wholesale digital currenciesThe AUD/USD pair is showing steady growth, continuing to form a steady "bullish" momentum in the short term. Quotes are trying to overcome the level of 0.6800, which previously could not be fixed. The pair was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points, which was the first such step since 2020. Additionally, the Fed revised down its inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy easing by the end of the year. However, the market reaction was restrained, as participants had already taken into account the results of the September meeting at current prices. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market's attention will be focused on statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States: it is expected that the number of initial applications will remain at 230 thousand, and repeat applications by 1.85 million.The Australian dollar is strengthening on the back of labor market data for August. The number of employees increased by 47.5 thousand, exceeding the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 25 thousand. At the same time, the indicator of full employment decreased by 3.1 thousand, and part-time employment increased by 50.6 thousand, leveling out the decrease last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, which was in line with expectations.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has launched a three-year program to develop a wholesale digital currency. After analyzing the limitations and benefits of a retail CBDC designed for mass use, the RBA decided to focus on the wholesale application of digital currency. The project aims to explore new applications, operational models and the impact of digital currency on the Australian financial system. The regulator suggests that wholesale CBDC can significantly improve the efficiency and sustainability of markets by reducing operational risks and reducing the costs associated with mediation.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6732, 0.6700.USDX: Dollar index shows mixed dynamicsThe USDX index is near the 100.85 mark, demonstrating high trading activity, which is associated with the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.For the first time since 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.00%. This decision was in line with market expectations, although until the last moment investors doubted whether the regulator would decide on such a significant reduction, given the current inflation risks. Previously, rates were in the range of 5.25–5.50% from July 2023 — this is the highest level since 2001. The Fed has been closely monitoring economic indicators, aiming to bring inflation closer to the target level of 2.0%. In addition, the regulator revised GDP growth forecasts: for 2024, they were reduced from 2.1% to 2.0%, while expectations for 2025 remained at 2.0%. Inflation estimates have been adjusted downward: this year the forecast decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%, and next year — from 2.3% to 2.1%. The forecasts also reflect a possible deterioration in the labor market situation — the unemployment rate in 2024 was revised from 4.0% to 4.4%, and in 2025 — from 4.2% to 4.4%. The median forecast of FOMC members suggests that by the end of 2024, the interest rate may decrease to 4.38%, and by the end of 2025 to 3.38%. However, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, further decisions will be made taking into account incoming macroeconomic data.Resistance levels: 100.80, 101.20, 101.67, 102.00.Support levels: 100.35, 100.00, 99.50, ...

The USD/CAD pair is adjusted at 1.3569, which is due to the weakening of the US dollar.The Canadian dollar is showing strengthening, remaining above the levels of the previous week. It was supported by wholesale trade data: in July, the volume of wholesale sales, excluding oil and cereals, increased by 1.1% on a monthly basis and by 0.4% to 82.7 billion Canadian dollars annually. Growth was recorded in four of the seven main sectors, with the largest contribution from trade in agricultural goods (+9.2%) and beverages (+1.7%). At the same time, the segments of goods for personal use and household showed the largest reduction — by 22.2% and 2.5%, respectively. As a result of the increase in production, inventories of goods increased from -0.1% to 0.5% in July, and the ratio of inventories to sales remained at 1.54 points, which indicates a stable situation in the sector.Since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has been showing a decline and is trading at 101.00 in the USDX index. Investors practically did not react to the data on price indices in international trade published on Friday: in August, the export price index fell by 0.7% in both annual and monthly terms, after rising by 1.2% earlier. The import price index was -0.3% on a monthly basis and 0.8% on an annual basis, which is lower than the previous value of 1.7%. This indicates a slowdown in U.S. foreign trade for the second month in a row, which may be due to higher interest rates in the country, while other leading economies are already starting to lower them.Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3710.Support levels: 1.3540, 1.3440.AUD/USD: after correction, the pair moves back to growthThe AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, returning to the "bullish" trend after a slight correction observed at the end of last week. Now the instrument is trying to overcome the level of 0.6725, which is facilitated by the expectation of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, in particular, a possible adjustment in the cost of borrowing.Investors also drew attention to macroeconomic indicators from China, released over the weekend. The data turned out to be weaker than expected: in August, industrial production increased by 4.5%, slowing from 5.1%, although 4.8% was forecast. Retail sales also showed a decrease, increasing by 2.1% against the expected 2.5% and the previous figure of 2.7%. Since the beginning of the year, investments in urban economy have decreased to 3.4%, which turned out to be slightly below expectations of 3.5%.On Thursday at 03:30 (GMT+2), the market will pay attention to the Australian labor market report for August. Employment is expected to decline from 58.2 thousand to 30.8 thousand, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.2%. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chief Economist Sarah Hunter earlier noted that the labor sector continues to recover, although population growth is outpacing employment figures. Companies are also reducing the amount of hours worked, which may affect the decisions of the regulator. In order to combat inflation, the RBA has already raised the interest rate by 425 basis points, bringing it to a 12—year high of 4.35%.Resistance levels: 0.6732, 0.6750, 0.6775, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6675, 0.6642, 0.6622.USD/JPY: analysts do not expect a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this monthThe USD/JPY pair is showing a downward trend, approaching the July 2023 lows at 140.20. The depreciation of the US currency is due to expectations of a change in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). The Fed's two-day meeting starts tomorrow, and the baseline scenario still assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points. However, the probability of a more significant 50 basis point decline has increased markedly and, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, is 59% compared to 30% last week. In addition, market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about a possible additional rate cut before the end of the year.The Bank of Japan will also hold a meeting this week, and although the regulator is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, the comments of the bank's representatives will be carefully analyzed by investors. In addition, Japanese inflation data for August will be published on Friday. Forecasts indicate a slight acceleration in the consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, from 2.7% to 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, this may strengthen the position of the Bank of Japan on the issue of further interest rate increases. According to a Reuters poll, none of the 52 economists expects a rate increase at the September 19-20 meeting. However, 54% of respondents assume that changes in monetary policy are possible by the end of the year, which is slightly less than 57% last month. The median forecast indicates an increase in the rate by 25 basis points, reaching the level of 0.50%. Among a narrower group of 23 experts, the majority favored a policy adjustment in December.Resistance levels: 141.00, 141.76, 142.50, 143.35.Support levels: 140.00, 139.35, 138.50, 137.50.Oil market analysisAt the beginning of the week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed a weak downward momentum, developing after Friday's decline, when quotes retreated from peak values on September 6. They are currently testing the 71.20 level, trying to break it down. Investors are awaiting the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which begins tomorrow. Analysts predict a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%, and are also waiting for signals regarding further steps by the regulator.Oil dynamics are also under pressure from the recent decision of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which lowered their forecasts for oil demand due to the slowdown in the economies of Europe and China. This concern intensified after the publication of macroeconomic data: in August, industrial production fell from 5.1% to 4.5%, which was lower than expectations of 4.8%. Retail sales also fell from 2.7% to 2.1%, although 2.5% was forecast. In addition, analysts note a slowdown in oil demand growth, linking this to China's transition to more environmentally friendly fuels and a decrease in gasoline demand in developed countries. Brent futures prices have fallen from a high of $82.0 per barrel in early August to a three-year low below $70.0 per barrel. This happened despite a reduction in Libyan oil supplies and a continued decrease in reserves. According to forecasts, the indicator will grow by only 900 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and by 950 thousand barrels per day. barrels per day next year, which may lead to a decrease in consumption in developed countries by almost 2 thousand barrels per day compared to the level preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 74.00, 75.04.Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 69.00, ...

AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...