AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...
AUD/USD: market is anticipating the Australian inflation report for the quarterThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing a moderate rise, continuing the positive trend started yesterday, and is striving to exceed the value of 0.6450, updating the highs since April 15 against the background of current economic indicators.The index of manufacturing activity in Australia from S&P Global increased from 47.3 to 49.9 points in April, while the indicator in the service sector from Commonwealth Bank fell slightly from 54.4 to 54.2 points. The composite index showed an increase from 53.3 to 53.6 points. With the start of trading in the United States, data on similar indices are expected on the market: it is predicted that in the manufacturing sector the indicator will increase from 51.9 to 52.0 points, and in services it will also reach 52.0 points. In Australia, the quarterly inflation report is also due to be published this week, where the consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 0.8% of quarterly growth and decrease annual inflation from 4.1% to 3.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6361, 0.6300.USD/CAD: currency pair stabilizes at 1.3700The USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends at 1.3700 during the Asian session, maintaining the pace of the recent bearish trend, which led to lows since April 12.Positive economic signals came from the United States, where the March activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose to 0.15 points from 0.09. In Canada, meanwhile, new home prices remained unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous month, and the growth rate of the industrial goods price index slowed to 0.8%, in line with forecasts.This week, the market's attention is focused on the American economy: on Thursday, the publication of primary GDP data for the first quarter is expected, which may show a slowdown in economic growth to 2.5% from 3.4%. On Friday, the key event will be an update on the personal consumption expenditure index, an important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, presumably showing an acceleration of the base value to 0.3% monthly and a slowdown to 2.6% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.USD/JPY: increased business activity in Japan in AprilThe USD/JPY pair holds positions in the horizontal range around 154.72, while the US dollar shows signs of slowing down.Without intervening directly, the Bank of Japan continues to monitor the market situation, despite a number of minor interventions that were quickly smoothed out by the market. After switching from a policy of negative interest rates to a range of 0.0–0.1%, the regulator emphasizes that it will maintain a soft monetary policy due to weakening inflation.The upcoming macroeconomic publications will attract additional attention of investors: in April, the business activity index in the Japanese manufacturing sector rose to 49.9, and the index in the service sector improved to 54.6. March inflation statistics showed a drop: the general consumer price index fell to 2.7%, and the base index to 2.9%. On Friday, data on April inflation in Tokyo and the meeting of the Bank of Japan are expected, which may affect the policy of currency intervention.Resistance levels: 155.10, 156.80.Support levels: 153.90, 151.80.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold is experiencing a noticeable drop, deepening into the "bearish" trend that began in the previous days: at the moment, gold is struggling with the support level of $ 2310.00 per ounce, reaching lows that have not been observed since April 5. The downturn is fueled by a decrease in tensions in the Middle East and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not adjust its monetary policy until the fall, perhaps even until the end of 2024.Nevertheless, there is activity in the gold futures market. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions fell from 202.4 thousand to 201.9 thousand last week. The number of positions backed by cash reached 198,276 thousand for bulls and 25,415 thousand for bears. Over the past seven days, the volume of purchases decreased by 10,357 thousand contracts, while sales decreased by 4,078 thousand, indicating continued asset sales among market participants.Resistance levels: 2320.00, 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00.Support levels: 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52, ...
EUR/USD: continued decline in the context of a long-term bearish trendAs part of a long-term downtrend, the EUR/USD pair experienced pressure, falling to the lower boundary of the channel near the 1.0600 mark, followed by a correction to the 1.0681 level. Amid expectations of changes in monetary policy, the market is tuning in to a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank as early as June, while the adaptation of the US Federal Reserve's policy is expected no earlier than September.Economic statistics support forecasts of an imminent correction: the March consumer price index of the eurozone showed a decrease to 2.4% per annum, the base index fell to 2.9%. In the US, by contrast, the consumer price index increased to 3.5%, while core inflation remained at 3.8%. Market expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy by Europe are supported by statements by ECB officials who are ready to cut rates in June, unless extraordinary events occur, such as increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which can cause an increase in energy prices.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0925.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 3.2%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair shows moderate growth, which began the previous day, and is trying to overcome the level of 1.2470, reacting to the latest data from the British economy.In March, monthly consumer price growth in the UK remained at 0.6%, and the annual inflation rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%, falling short of the expected 3.1%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also increased by 0.6%, which led to an annual rate of 4.2%, slightly higher than the forecast of 4.1%. The retail price index decreased to 4.3%, which was worse than the expected 4.2%, indicating a slower than expected decrease in inflationary pressure, which limits the rise of the pound. The market's attention on Friday will be focused on retail sales figures, which, according to forecasts, should show an improvement of 0.3% after stagnation in February.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2270.NZD/USD: pair is gaining strength after losses at the start of the weekNZD/USD is showing moderate growth, continuing the positive trend that began after the pair rebounded from the lowest values since the beginning of November 2023. At the moment, the exchange rate is approaching the psychological level of 0.5920, accompanied by expectations of new economic signals.Investors will direct their attention to the upcoming statistics on the American labor market, in particular, data on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits are expected: forecasts indicate a slight increase in the number of initial applications from 211,000 to 215,000. In addition, a publication from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may show a decrease from 3.2 up to 1.5 points in April, which can affect the dynamics of the pair.On the other hand, recent inflation data in New Zealand caused pressure on the national currency: the consumer price index for the first quarter showed a slowdown from 4.7% to 4.0% per annum, which was below expectations, while the quarterly index showed an unexpected increase from 0.5% to 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800.AUD/USD: Australian currency is moving away from recent low valuesDuring recent trading, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an uptrend, moving away from the lows reached on November 14, 2023, with quotes actively attacking the 0.6445 level. Investors are carefully studying the data of the March report on the Australian labor market, published on Thursday.The report showed a decrease in the number of employed by 6.6 thousand, which was a sharp restraint after the previous increase of 117.6 thousand, against the projected 7.2 thousand. At the same time, the number of full-time jobs increased by 27.9 thousand, while part-time employment fell by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, which was below analysts' expectations of 3.9%, and labor force participation decreased from 66.7% to 66.6%.The US dollar also received support after recent statements by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Although he did not provide a specific time frame for the start of rate cuts, he stressed that it would take more time to stabilize inflation at 2.0%. This led to a revision by investors of forecasts regarding the time of the first interest rate cut this year, while the majority believes that monetary policy easing is possible in September, followed by a possible reduction no earlier than the end of 2024. Up to two rate adjustments of 25 basis points each are expected this year.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6356, ...
AUD/USD is growing moderately, developing the upward momentum of the previous session, during which the pair successfully pushed off from local lows on November 14, 2023 and is currently testing the 0.6445 mark for an upward breakout. Meanwhile, market participants are analyzing the March report on the Australian labor market published on Thursday.The report notes a decrease in the employment rate by 6.6 thousand jobs after a significant increase of 117.6 thousand in the previous month, which is slightly lower than analysts' expectations of 7.2 thousand. Full-time employment increased by 27.9 thousand, while partial employment decreased by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8%, with expectations of 3.9%, and the share of the labor force in the total population decreased from 66.7% to 66.6%.At the same time, the US dollar received good support from Jerome Powell's comments. Although the exact timing of the launch of the program to reduce the cost of borrowing was not specified, the head of the Fed stressed that the national economy will need some time to reach the 2.0% inflation target. This led to a revision of investors' forecasts for the date of the first interest rate adjustment in the current year. An easing of monetary policy in September seems to be the most likely scenario, but a change in course at the end of 2024 is also possible. It is expected that there will be no more than two interest rate cuts this year.On the daily chart, the Bollinger band indicator shows a moderate decrease while. The MACD is trying to move to growth, while at the same time maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic, having retreated from the lows, began to turn up and is trying to break through the 20% level and get out of the oversold area.We consider purchases after a confident breakdown of the 0.6456 level up with a target of 0.6524. We will set the stop loss at 0.6420.A rebound from the resistance of 0.6456, followed by a breakdown of the 0.6420 mark down, will be a signal to form short positions with a target of 0.6356. We will place the stop loss at ...
AUD/USD: pair has approached the support zone of 0.6489–0.6447During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching the important support zone of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of American statistics.Last week was marked by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market. The US consumer price index in March showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%, and the annual index was 3.5%, also higher than the predicted 3.4%. The producer price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, from the previous 1.6%, although analysts expected an increase to 2.2%, while the monthly index decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The core inflation rate rose from 2.1% to 2.4%, while the forecast was 2.3%. These data have increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June.The Australian economy also showed weak results: the number of construction permits issued fell by 1.9% monthly, which is in line with forecasts, while the previous figure was revised from -1.0% to -2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.Gold market analysisThe price of gold has stabilized around the level of 2350.00. Last week, gold reached a historic high, rising to the level of 2430.00, however, the bulls failed to hold this position, and many traders decided to realize the accumulated profits.The rise in gold prices continues to be supported by geopolitical instability and forecasts for rate cuts by the world's largest central banks. The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy later, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points expected in September.The latest macroeconomic data from the United States, published on April 12, increased pressure on the US dollar. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 79.4 to 77.9 points in April, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 79.0 points. The March import price index increased by 0.4%, accelerating by 0.1% compared to February, and on an annual basis the indicator also increased by 0.4% after a noticeable decrease of 0.8% a month earlier. Today, traders will closely monitor the March retail sales statistics in the United States, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from February figures. The April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also be published, an improvement from -20.9 to -9.0 points is projected.Resistance levels: 2375.00, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Cryptocurrency market analysisThe price dynamics of bitcoin tried to rise, breaking the 72000.00 level, but by the end of the week it fell sharply, losing about 14.5% of its value due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Over the weekend, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israel, which led to investor fears about the possible outbreak of a large-scale military conflict, which, in turn, contributed to the reorientation of investments in defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar. This downward trend affected not only Bitcoin, but also the wide cryptocurrency market, where in a few days there were liquidations of open positions totaling about $2.5 billion. In addition, the pressure on digital assets was influenced by monetary policy, as the chances of continued high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve increased amid renewed inflationary pressures.These events lowered the price of Bitcoin to a six-week low of 60400.00, after which its partial recovery began. Traders are returning to the market, hoping that there will be no further escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, according to representatives of American diplomacy. In this context, a possible resumption of growth of the main cryptocurrency assets, supported by the expectation of an upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network, seems quite likely in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.Crude Oil market analysisAfter rising to 92.42 on Friday, Brent crude oil quotes are experiencing a correction to 89.85 amid reports that the Iranian attack on Sunday caused minimal damage to Israel's infrastructure.Last week, after aggressive statements by Iranian leaders, the price of oil exceeded 92.00, as market participants feared the expansion of the armed conflict beyond the region. On Sunday, more than 300 rockets and drones were fired at Israel, most of which were successfully shot down by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "True Promise" mission has been completed and no further attacks are planned. According to him, Iran adheres to the principles of the UN Charter and is not interested in escalating the conflict. Against this background, the quotes of Brent Crude Oil moved to a decrease.The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains difficult, which may lead to high volatility in the oil market in the coming months. Given that Iran is a significant oil producer in OPEC with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, the risks of supply interruption associated with sanctions and potential retaliatory actions by Israel contribute to the fact that the current price decline is rather corrective.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, ...
EUR/USD: Euro stabilizes near the 1.0830 levelDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair shows consolidation near the 1.0830 level. After moderate growth on Friday, the euro moved to a decline by the end of the week, helped by new data on the American labor market.March statistics showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector to 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the previous figure of 270 thousand and analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 200 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while the average hourly wage accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and decreased from 4.3% to 4.1% on an annual basis. Despite the strengthening of the labor market, this may force the US Federal Reserve to continue its cautious monetary policy.Meanwhile, European economic indicators released on Friday were below expectations. Production orders in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% after falling by 11.4% a month earlier, falling short of the projected level of 0.8%. Retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% compared with zero change in January, while a decrease of 0.4% was expected. The annual sales dynamics improved from -0.9% to -0.7%, ahead of forecasts of -1.3%. These weak indicators reflect the pressure that inflation and high interest rates from the European Central Bank are putting on consumer demand and household budgets.Resistance levels: 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.USD/JPY: the head of the Central Bank of Japan assessed the prospects for the growth of national inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair showed a bullish trend, reaching the level of 151.82 after Friday's data, which increased investors' doubts about the possibility of lowering rates by the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting. The report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector by 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 200 thousand, and a revision of February data from 275 thousand to 270 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while analysts did not expect changes, and the average hourly wage rose from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, although it slowed from 4.3% to 4.1% year-on-year.Friday's data from Japan was mixed: household spending decreased by 0.5% after falling by 6.3% a month earlier, against expectations of a decline of 3.0%. The index of leading indicators rose from 108.5 to 111.8 points, exceeding expectations of 111.6 points, while the index of matching indicators fell from 112.1 to 110.9 points. Recently published data showed an improvement in the balance of payments from 457 billion yen to 2444.2 billion yen, below the forecast of 3112.5 billion yen, and average wages increased from 1.5% to 1.8%, which may affect inflation expectations. The Eco Watchers index on the current situation fell from 51.3 to 49.8 points, and the forecast of events decreased from 53 to 51.2 points.Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said last week that inflation could accelerate by autumn due to wage growth, the highest in the last 33 years, agreed with trade unions last month. Investors took this as a signal of a possible interest rate adjustment, recalling that on March 19, the rate was raised for the first time since 2016 from -0.10% to a range of 0.00%-0.10%. Ueda stressed that the 2.0% inflation target has not yet been reached, and that high import costs continue to affect prices, while the weakening yen may become an additional factor influencing any decision to increase borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.50, 153.00, 153.50.Support levels: 151.50, 151.00, 150.50, 150.00.USD/CAD: the Bank of Canada considers the anonymity of the CBDC the key to the success of the digital currencyDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is actively testing the 1.3600 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark. The end of last week was marked by exceeding this limit and updating the November highs, although by Friday the pair had declined, despite the positive data from the American macroeconomics.On the other hand, the employment situation in Canada turned out to be less favorable: the number of jobs decreased by 2.2 thousand, while an increase of 40.7 thousand was previously recorded, and an increase of 25.0 thousand was predicted. The unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.9%, and the average hourly wage increased from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, the March Ivey business activity index rose from 53.9 to 57.5 points, exceeding analysts' expectations of 54.2 points.A Bank of Canada report titled "CBDC: Banking and Anonymity" highlights that privacy will be an important aspect for users with the possible introduction of the digital Canadian dollar. It will also attract the attention of banks, which may consider not including such transactions in financial statements, thereby creating problems for regulators when assessing the creditworthiness of companies. In turn, commercial banks may seek to reduce the anonymity of the digital currency to reduce credit risks, which will require stricter credit standards to achieve balance.Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.AUD/USD: Australia's industrial sector continues to be under pressureThe AUD/USD currency pair remains stable at 0.6576, as it was last week, against the background of a temporary weakening of the US dollar and optimistic economic data from Australia.In February, an increase in the total amount of new housing loans was recorded by 1.2%, and an annual comparison showed an increase of 21.5%. During the month, the number of loans issued to owners renting housing increased by 0.9%, while loans for the purchase of new housing increased by 4.3%. The cost of loans for new tenants was 9.1% higher than in February of the previous year, and 20.7% more for first-time home buyers. However, exports decreased from 1.5% to -2.2%, and imports increased from 1.4% to 4.8%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 10.058 billion Australian dollars to 7.280 billion. These data reflect ongoing pressure on the industrial sector, but also point to the potential for increased domestic consumption.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6550, ...
EUR/USD: trend line analysisDuring morning trading in Asia, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to grow, reaching 1.0844, maintaining the positive trend of the last day.The published economic indicators had a limited impact on the pair's movement. In March, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 0.8% month-on-month, leading to a decrease in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.4%. The core index excluding the cost of food and energy dropped to 2.9% from 3.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%. It is expected that additional data on production inflation for February, which will be published at 11:00 GMT, will show a decrease in the producer price index by -0.7% month-on-month and by -8.6% year-on-year, confirming the stability of previous values. The March figures also indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 2.4% and an increase in monthly inflation to 0.8%, with a decrease in the base index to 2.9% year-on-year, but with an increase to 1.1% month-on-month.Resistance levels: 1.0924, 1.1033.Support levels: 1.0807, 1.0732.NZD/USD: the US dollar remains stable without forming a trendIn the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate has been rising, holding near the 0.6028 level due to the weakening of the USD.Statistics from New Zealand show an increase in permits for the construction of new homes in February by 2,795 thousand or 6% compared to last year. Among these, 1,297 thousand permits were issued for the construction of individual houses (a decrease of 0.5%), and 1,498 thousand for apartment buildings (a decrease of 10%). However, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, the total number of building permits increased by 15%, while a decrease of -8.6% was recorded in January. Separately, there is a decrease in the commodity price index according to ANZ Group in March by -1.3% after an increase of 3.6% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6050, 0.6130.Support levels: 0.5990, 0.5920.AUD/USD: RBA introduces measures to increase banks' liquidityThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a noticeable upward trend, overcoming the level of 0.6585 and updating the highs reached on March 21, thanks to the upward correction that began on Tuesday.The Australian dollar is strengthening against the background of the latest macroeconomic data from the country: the March index of business activity in the services sector, measured by the Commonwealth Bank, rose from 53.5 to 54.4, and the overall economic index improved from 52.4 to 53.3. At the same time, data on construction permits in February showed mixed results: annual growth accelerated from 4.8% to 5.2%, but the monthly figure decreased by 1.9%, despite expectations of growth of 3.3% after the previous fall of 2.5%.Chris Kent, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), announced plans to introduce an innovative method of maintaining the liquidity of financial institutions, including conducting REPO operations on the open market at rates close to the target level through full-coverage auctions. This measure is designed to support the banking sector, which was actively supplied with cash during the pandemic, in the face of reduced reserves due to repayment of emergency loans, thereby minimizing the risks of unforeseen volatility and market disruptions.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6616, 0.6638, 0.6667.Support levels: 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540, 0.6524.Silver market analysisThe value of silver is experiencing a slight drop, moving away from the peak values of June 2021, reached at the beginning of afternoon trading on Thursday, while the asset is checking the level of 27.00 for a possible further decline. Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of the March report on the state of the US labor market, which is expected at the end of the week and may provide new information about a potential reduction in loan rates by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).The market is also focused on the consequences of the recent speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who, according to expectations, stressed the need for a detailed analysis of economic data to confirm a steady decline in the inflation rate to the 2% target. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to make decisions, given the continued stability of the American economy. Current forecasts tend to expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as early as June, with a probability slightly above 50%, which causes some analysts to argue about the possible postponement of the change in the regulator's approach to a later date.On the eve of these events, the growth of the asset was hindered by the latest macroeconomic data from the United States from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) concerning employment in the private sector: March figures showed an increase of 184 thousand, which exceeded both the previous month with its 155 thousand and the projected 148 thousand.Resistance levels: 27.33, 27.60, 28.00, 28.29.Support levels: 27.00, 26.57, 26.19, ...
EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in GermanyThe EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peakWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, ...
The consumer price index in Australia increased by 3.4% in February (YoY), which slightly exceeded forecasts of 3.3%. The price increase is due to an increase in the cost of insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food (+3.6%). A decrease in prices was observed for meat, meat products and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and cultural events (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar index has stabilized after yesterday's correction and is trading at 104.00. Investors are responding positively to reports on basic durable goods orders, which increased by 0.5% in February, as well as an increase in total orders by 1.4%. The Conference Board consumer confidence index, reflecting the opinion of American households about the current and future economic situation, amounted to 104.7 points, which is slightly worse than the previous value of 104.8 points.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisOn the daily chart, AUD/USD develops a correction, breaking through the lower boundary of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6630–0.6530.Technical indicators confirm the sell signal: the fast moving averages on the alligator are located below the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator indicator forms descending bars, moving away from the zero level into the sales zone.It is recommended to open short positions after the price has decreased and consolidated below the level of 0.6510. The target is at 0.6440. We will set the stop loss level at 0.6550.Purchases should be considered after the growth and consolidation of the pair above the level of 0.6560. The buyers' target is 0.6630. We will set the stop loss at ...
