EUR/USD: euro is losing ground after the May statistics on the German labor marketThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating around the 1.0880 mark. Yesterday, the instrument showed a slight decrease, retreating from local highs on March 21, despite a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the United States. Investors drew attention to the increase in the number of unemployed in Germany in May from 11.0 thousand (revised from 10.0 thousand) to 25.0 thousand, while analysts predicted that the indicator would remain at the level of 10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 5.9%. According to the Federal Employment Agency, 702.0 thousand vacancies were opened in May, which is 65.0 thousand less than a year ago. At the same time, the shortage of qualified personnel remains in 183 out of 200 key professions. Experts fear that the problems in the German labor market may worsen in the medium term due to the deterioration of the demographic situation.Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity in the services sector and industrial inflation in the eurozone. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held on Thursday at 14:15 (GMT+2), from which analysts expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25%. At the same time, the regulator may announce more cautious further steps, given the ongoing inflationary pressure in some sectors of the region's economy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0842, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: rhetoric of the Fed and the Bank of England is reflected in the dynamics of the pairThe GBP/USD pair has been growing for the second month in a row, updating the March high of 1.2817.Earlier, investors feared that the US Federal Reserve would abandon monetary policy easing this year due to rising inflationary pressures in the first quarter. However, the latest macroeconomic data encouraged them: in April, the key core index of private consumption expenditures fell from 0.3% to 0.2%, job growth slowed to 8.059 million, and the May index of manufacturing activity fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. As a result of weakening inflation and a possible economic downturn, officials may switch to a "dovish" course, and most experts expect the first rate cut in September and another before the end of the year.The Bank of England, which previously planned to reduce the cost of borrowing in the summer, may postpone the adjustment to the end of the year, as in April the consumer price index rose by 2.3% instead of the expected 2.1%, and the economy remains stable: in May, business activity indices continue to grow, albeit more slowly. Additionally, the situation is complicated by the parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, so officials have taken a break and do not comment on further actions.Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061.Support levels: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490.NZD/USD: problem mortgages in New Zealand increased by 25% since the beginning of the yearThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from a recent correction attempt, which did not allow it to gain a foothold at local highs from March 8. Now the quotes are testing the level of 0.6185, and investors are waiting for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), the May report from ADP on private sector employment will be released, and at the end of the week, the final data from the US Department of Labor will be released. It is expected that the number of employees will decrease from 192.0 thousand to 173.0 thousand. At 16:00 (GMT+2), statistics on the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be published, the projected growth of which from 49.4 to 50.5 points may affect investors' expectations regarding the easing of the Fed's monetary policy by the end of the year. The main scenario assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points with a probability of 51.0% in September.Craig Rennie, head of policy at the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, noted that changing tax conditions could stimulate a decrease in demand in the economy, as high-income companies would not be able to distribute funds among shareholders. In his opinion, regular changes in duties will be more useful for the economy than adjusting the interest rate. He stressed that although the increase in the cost of borrowing has somewhat reduced demand, it has also contributed to the accumulation of savings by citizens in conditions of high inflation. This is confirmed by data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, according to which the volume of non-performing housing loans in April increased by 7.7% to $ 1.9 billion. Since the beginning of the year, this figure has increased by $ 384.0 million, or 25.3%, and over the past 12 months — by $ 796.0 million, or 72.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6230, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6175, 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: data on salaries and business activity in Japan met with a neutral reaction from investorsAgainst the background of the weakening of the US dollar and positive Japanese statistics, the USD/JPY pair is correcting downwards, trading near the level of 155.58.The yen is correcting after strengthening at the beginning of the week, and reports on wages and business activity were perceived by investors neutrally: in April, the total income of employees increased by 2.1% after the previous 1.0%, and the average annual salary increased by 2.1% instead of the projected 1.7%. Overtime pay decreased by 0.6%, which is almost the same as last year's 0.5%. Thus, workers' incomes and salaries increased in the spring, supporting the local recovery. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 54.3 to 53.8 points, remaining in the "green" zone and is unlikely to significantly affect quotes. In this situation, the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy, although an interest rate increase is still unlikely.Resistance levels: 156.40, 158.40.Support levels: 154.80, ...
EUR/USD: ECB rates will remain high until 2% inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD rate retreated from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.0960–1.0710, stabilizing near the level of 1.0889.The European Central Bank (ECB) intends to maintain high interest rates until inflation returns to the 2.0% target. This happens after rates were lowered in June for the first time since 2019, while the rate on basic refinancing operations was set at 4.25%, on margin loans — 4.50%, and on deposits — 3.75%. Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, said that the economic growth of the region is likely to slow down in the next quarter due to weak investment activity and limited increase in production capacity. She also stressed that monetary policy decisions will depend on current economic statistics, including wage dynamics, corporate profits and the state of the service sector. Lagarde also acknowledged that a possible deterioration in the geopolitical situation could lead to an increase in energy prices and an increase in transportation costs, which would put additional pressure on the consumer price index. However, if current data confirm the deflationary trend, it will strengthen the ECB's confidence in achieving the inflation target of 2.0% by the end of 2025. In this context, analysts expect two more rate adjustments this year, with the first change 80% likely to occur within the next two months.Support levels: 1.0860, 1.0760.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1060.GBP/USD: preliminary expectation of business activity dataAfter a significant rise last week, the GBP/USD exchange rate is declining due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the current level of which is 1.2927.The publication of primary data on business activity indices will take place tomorrow at 10:30 (GMT+2). It is expected that the indicator in the manufacturing sector will increase from 50.9 to 51.1, and in the service sector from 52.1 to 52.5, which will bring the composite index to 52.3. This improvement, following the decline in June, may contribute to the strengthening of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The impact of US President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the elections is gradually decreasing, giving way to the importance of economic statistics, which will become the basis for decision-making at the Fed meeting on July 31. Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on statistics on sales volumes in the secondary housing market — a key indicator for the real estate sector. According to forecasts, volumes may decrease from 4.11 million to 3.99 million after a previous decrease of 0.7%. If this is confirmed, Fed officials will probably rule out easing monetary policy at the upcoming meeting, leaving interest rates at a high level until mid-September.Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3070.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2780.NZD/USD: trade data increases pressure on the New Zealand dollarThe NZD/USD exchange rate continues to decline, approaching the level of 0.5967 against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and disappointing data from New Zealand.Yesterday, foreign trade indicators were presented, which indicated a decrease in activity: exports in June decreased to 6.17 billion New Zealand dollars compared to 7.00 billion, and imports decreased to 5.47 billion from the previous 6.94 billion New Zealand dollars. The monthly trade balance improved to NZ$699.0 million from NZ$54.0 million, but the annual balance still shows a deficit of NZ$-9.400 billion. Data on credit card spending, an important indicator of consumer demand, is expected tomorrow. The ongoing negative trend may indicate a lack of growth prospects for the New Zealand dollar in the near future.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5870.Resistance levels: 0.5990, 0.6060.USD/CAD: experts predict a rate cut by the Bank of CanadaThe USD/CAD currency pair continues to grow for the second week in a row, trading within the long-term ascending channel and is currently checking the level of 1.3763 amid expectations of the next actions of the financial authorities of Canada and the United States.Analysts assume that the Bank of Canada will maintain its soft monetary policy at the July meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow at 15:45 (GMT+2). The interest rate is expected to decrease from 4.75% to 4.50% amid a decrease in inflation from 2.9% to 2.7% on an annual basis and an increase in unemployment from 6.2% to 6.4% in June. The growth of the labor force and the reduction in the level of hiring influenced the acceleration of unemployment to 1.6% compared with the minimum values of July 2022. The high cost of loans is putting significant pressure on households, as the share of debt service costs has reached its highest level in the last 30 years, contributing only to a modest 1.0% recovery in the Canadian economy this year. These conditions create the prerequisites for a possible reduction in the interest rate by 50 basis points by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 1.3763, 1.3824, 1.3855.Support levels: 1.3671, 1.3610, ...
EUR/USD: a drop in the consumer price index in the EU has been recordedThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, with the current quote at 1.0895. The euro is expected to strengthen this week thanks to encouraging economic data.In particular, in France, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in June compared to the previous month, slowing annual growth from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the harmonized index, which meets EU standards, decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In Spain, the indicator also adjusted, showing monthly growth of 0.4% and a decrease in annual inflation from 3.6% to 3.4%. The decrease in inflation in Germany confirms the slowdown in the overall inflation rate in the region, which will allow officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) to avoid a rush to adjust monetary policy and maintain current interest rates for the near future.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a weakening, with quotes at 103.80 on the USDX index. Recently, the University of Michigan reported a decrease in the consumer expectations index from 69.6 to 67.2 points and a deterioration in the consumer sentiment index from 68.2 to 66.0 points, while the indicator of current conditions also decreased from 65.9 to 64.1 points. This trend points to consumer expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0760.GBP/USD: pound is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.2972 in a monthOver the past month, the GBP/USD pair has seen strengthening, maintaining at around 1.2972.Unlike the US Federal Reserve System, where the prospects for rate cuts are growing, the Bank of England shows a tendency to stabilize the cost of borrowing, which contributes to the strengthening of the pound. UK GDP growth in monthly terms amounted to 0.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.2%, and reached 1.4% year-on-year, ahead of forecasts at 1.2%. This supports the risks of renewed acceleration of inflation, forcing Bank of England officials to adhere to a cautious policy. At the moment, only a few board members, including Swati Dhingra, are in favor of stepping up action, while most, including Catherine Mann and Hugh Pill, are not yet ready to adjust policy. Consequently, analysts estimate the probability of a change in interest rates in August as unlikely so far, at the level of 50%.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2573, 1.2451.NZD/USD: New Zealand assessed the consequences of tight monetary policyDuring Asian trading, the NZD/USD pair fluctuates in the range of 0.6140–0.6075, approaching its lower limit. The market is closely monitoring the actions of the New Zealand monetary authorities in anticipation of new incentives for movement.Last week brought no changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have remained at 5.50% since May 2023 — for the eighth time in a row. However, due to tight monetary policy, the inflation rate has been reduced, and it is expected that by the end of the year they will return to the target range from 1.0% to 3.0%. The easing of tension in the labor market indicates a more cautious approach by companies to hiring and an increase in the supply of labor. Also in June, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.2 to 41.1 points, and retail sales by electronic cards improved from -1.2% to -0.6% monthly and from -1.6% to -4.9% per annum. New data on inflation and the state of the labor market are expected in the coming weeks, which will have a significant impact on monetary decisions. In particular, this Friday at 00:45 GMT+2, the market will assess the quarterly dynamics of the consumer price index: a decrease from 0.6% to 4.0% per annum is expected, which may affect the RBNZ's decision to cut rates in August and weaken the New Zealand dollar. Analysts assume that the first rate cut of 25 basis points will occur in October, and the second is likely in November.Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6225, 0.6286.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6010, 0.5981.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation data for June will be published soonThe USD/CAD pair is approaching the level of 1.3657, waiting for news from Canada that may affect the exchange rate.Tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+2, June inflation figures are expected, which will become key for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. Analysts foresee a decrease in annual inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the monthly index may accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% in a month, and annual inflation from 0.6%, which may contribute to a transition to a more lenient policy. Such changes will reduce the cost of debt servicing, stimulating consumer and investment spending, which will contribute to economic recovery. Statistics on new homes launched in June will also be published, with a projected decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may affect the value of the Canadian dollar.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3480.Resistance levels: 1.3680, ...
Trading idea for NZD/USD on July 9, 2024NZD/USD is near the 0.6120 mark at Tuesday's trading. Yesterday, buyers tried to raise the exchange rate of the New Zealand currency, and reached the peak level of 0.6150, which is the maximum since June 14. However, the bulls could not hold on to these heights, and by the end of the day the pair returned to the level of 0.6125, ending the day in the red.The volatility of currency pairs in the market remains low, as traders are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of important macroeconomic data and the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress, which will take place today (14:00 GMT). Powell is expected to comment on weak labor market data released on Friday and clarify the outlook for the Fed's monetary policy. In June, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the United States decreased from 218 thousand (revised from 272 thousand) to 206 thousand. The average hourly wage slowed from 4.1% to 3.9% in annual terms, which may help reduce inflation risks, while the unemployment rate increased from 4% to 4.1%. Traders are still expecting one or two 25 basis point rate cuts starting from the September meeting. On Thursday, investors' attention will be focused on US inflation data for June, which is expected to show a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1%. If this forecast is confirmed, the probability of a rate cut in September will increase, which will increase pressure on the US dollar.From the news background on the kiwi, attention should be paid to tomorrow's meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on the interest rate. Analysts predict that the central bank will keep the rate at 5.50%, but due to increased inflation risks, the central bank's rhetoric may become more stringent. Also tomorrow, a report on inflation in China will be released, which is expected to show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% in annual terms. Since there are close trade ties between China and New Zealand, data from China may have a positive impact on the NZD/USD pair.Buy Stop at 0.6150Take Profit at 0.6300Stop Loss at ...
EUR/USD: analysts expect new data on the producer price index in EuropeThe EUR/USD trading instrument shows ambiguous changes in value, stabilizing around the 1.0740 level. Trading volumes have decreased as market participants refrain from active actions on the eve of Independence Day celebrations in the United States on July 4. Investors are also awaiting data from the June US employment report, which may clarify possible Fed rate adjustments by the end of the year.In the Eurozone, data on producer price indices will be published, which will complement the already known indicators of consumer inflation. In June, the index slowed from 2.6% to 2.5% per annum and remained at the level of 0.2% monthly. The base index remains at 2.9% per annum, which is higher than the projected 2.8%, and decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% for the month. In this context, representatives of the European Central Bank are cautious in their statements. On the eve of the ECB head Christine Lagarde stressed that the agency needs more time to achieve a steady movement of the consumer price index to the target level of 2.0%, which indicates a slow easing of monetary policy. She also noted that the risks of recession have not yet passed, and the prospects for economic growth remain uncertain.Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0842.Support levels: 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0665, 1.0630.GBP/USD: an uptrend amid comments from the head of the FedAt the end of June, the pound sterling stabilized at 1.2617 and began a steady recovery after Jerome Powell's statements about the future steps of US monetary policy. Despite the proximity of Independence Day celebrations in the United States, which traditionally reduces activity in the markets, new deals are being opened cautiously.The growth of GBP/USD is supported by the latest data on the real estate market. The Nationwide Building Society housing price index in June showed an increase of 0.2% for the month, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.0%, and increased the annual increase to 1.5% against 1.3% previously. An improvement in indicators may provoke an increase in inflation and prompt the Bank of England to reconsider the time frame for easing monetary policy. Currently, the key rate is held at 5.25%, and if it remains unchanged at the upcoming meeting on August 1, this will provide the British pound with an additional impetus to continue the upward trend.Resistance levels: 1.2875, 1.2963, 1.3133.Support levels: 1.2617, 1.2525, 1.2322.AUD/USD: RBA summed up the results of monetary policy actionsThe AUD/USD exchange rate has been showing stable movement within the boundaries of 0.6713–0.6591 for several months, being influenced by the expectation of new market incentives that could determine the direction of its further trend. Investors pay special attention to statements by financial authorities that can indicate the time frame for changes in current monetary policy.The May inflation data revealed a significant excess of forecasts: the monthly consumer price index jumped to 4.0% in annual terms, which is beyond the target range of 2.0–3.0%. Therefore, economists revised their expectations for an interest rate adjustment in August. Despite this, representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) note the effectiveness of the current policy. Christopher Kent, assistant to the head of the RBA, stressed that high interest rates contributed to a slowdown in inflation and demand. However, he also pointed out that the share of mortgage payments in family incomes reached a record 10.0%. Since May 2022, rates have increased by 425 basis points and have not changed at the last five meetings of the RBA. The minutes of the last meeting reflected the weak dynamics of GDP, which indicates difficulties in industries sensitive to rate increases, such as retail and construction. Despite the moderate growth in consumption, other economic indicators showed a decline. There is also a slowdown in employment growth, approaching the growth of the working-age population, and wage dynamics have probably reached their peak.Resistance levels: 0.6713, 0.6775, 0.6835.Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6469, 0.6408.NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar expects factors to start correctionDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate shows volatility, hovering around the 0.6075 level in anticipation of new market incentives.The New Zealand dollar is under some pressure due to weak economic indicators from China, indicating a slowdown in the country's economic growth. This was especially evident when the Caixin services index fell from 54.0 to 51.2 points in June, significantly below expectations of 53.4 points. At the same time, despite forecasts, the indicator in the manufacturing sector increased slightly, reaching 51.8 points. It should also be noted changes in the consumer confidence index from ANZ Group Ltd., which fell to 83.0 points against the predicted 84.2 and the previous 84.9 points. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's business optimism index also showed a decrease — from 11.2 to 6.1 points, which reflects the impact of prolonged tight monetary policy on business. In addition, the correction of the business activity forecast from 11.8% to 12.2% also has an impact on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.6085, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6152.Support levels: 0.6068, 0.6047, 0.6030, ...
AUD/USD: prices tend to retreat from the upper limit of the expanding formationDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is trying to regain lost positions after last week's fall, which did not allow it to strengthen at the highs of June 12, and is currently checking the level of 0.6640.Meanwhile, investors are analyzing the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, during which the interest rate again remained at a 12-year peak of 4.35% — for the fifth time amid an unconvincing slowdown in inflation. In the first quarter, the consumer price index rose from 4.1% to 3.6% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, while forecasts were 3.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, confirmed that the management considered the increase in the cost of lending as a measure to stabilize the market situation, given the ongoing excess demand and increasing domestic price pressures both in the labor sector and beyond. In her opinion, although the inflation rate has decreased since last year, it is expected that it will return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by the end of 2025. In addition, the employment rate increased by 377.0 thousand. on an annual basis, and the unemployment rate remains close to a 50-year low, in line with analytical forecasts, which indicates the restraining effect of the RBA's monetary policy on the economy.Support levels: 0.6610, 0.6540.Resistance levels: 0.6670, 0.6760.USD/JPY: the US dollar is stabilizing at its recent peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair shows volatile activity during the Asian trading session, holding near the 159.75 mark and highs since April 29. Then the intervention of the Bank of Japan led to a temporary retreat of the yen from record highs around 160.20, but the long-term effect of these measures turned out to be limited, and the market began to actively buy dollars again. Ahead of the expected Fed interest rate cut, the Japanese currency is likely to continue to remain under pressure due to the limited capacity of the local regulator to further tighten monetary policy.Recently published economic data from Japan showed mixed results: the national consumer price index rose from 2.5% to 2.8% in May, while the index excluding food and energy declined from 2.4% to 2.1%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank and S&P Global in June fell from 50.4 to 50.1 points, missing the expected 50.6 points. On June 28, data for June on consumer inflation in Tokyo and May statistics on industrial production and unemployment will be published. Production is projected to increase by 2.0% after falling by 0.9% in the previous month, and the unemployment rate will remain stable at 2.6%.Resistance levels: 159.92, 160.21, 160.80, 161.30.Support levels: 159.30, 159.00, 158.43, 157.95.NZD/USD: changes in business activity adjusted expectations for Fed ratesThe NZD/USD currency pair shows mixed trading results at 0.6116, being influenced by the stable positions of the US dollar. The strengthening of the dollar is due to high interest rates in the United States and the release of the latest economic data: the manufacturing sector index from S&P Global increased from 51.3 to 51.7 points, exceeding forecasts of 51.0 points, while in the service sector the index increased from 54.8 to 55.1 points, ahead of expectations of 53.7 points. It is also worth noting a 0.7% drop in sales in the secondary housing market in May after a 1.9% decrease a month earlier, with a slowdown in sales dynamics from 4.14 million to 4.11 million, which is close to forecasts of 4.10 million.The New Zealand dollar received minimal support from data on export growth in May from $ 6.31 billion to $ 7.16 billion, as well as an increase in imports from $ 6.32 billion to $ 6.95 billion, while reducing the trade deficit from -10.05 billion to -10.22 billion dollars. An important event was the meeting of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Lacson with Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang, where they discussed expanding cooperation in the fields of digital, green economy and creative industries, as well as promoting regional economic partnership, which is expected to contribute to improving the economic performance of both countries.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6175, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.USD/CHF: the Swiss national bank failed to strengthen the position of the francAfter the recent meeting of the Swiss National Bank on monetary policy, the USD/CHF pair moved to 0.8940, aiming to reach 0.9005.At the meeting held on Thursday, June 20, the bank lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, while the market expected the rate to remain at 1.50%. This rate cut brought it to the expected end point of the current monetary policy easing cycle, which, according to the bank, will amount to 1.0% year-on-year. Officials noted that their decision was dictated by a decrease in inflation in May to 1.2% per annum, although the overall index rose to 1.4% due to higher prices for rent, tourist services and petroleum products, mainly due to higher prices for domestic services. The latest forecasts of the bank's economists are now similar to the estimates made in March: average annual inflation is expected to be 1.3% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. Interest rates are expected to remain at 1.25%, however, if inflation accelerates, the bank may tighten monetary policy again, as stated in the official message.Resistance levels: 0.9005, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.8880, ...
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar declines after May recordsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop, rolling back after yesterday's surge, when new local highs were reached since May 20, despite strengthening based on positive May data on the Australian labor market.The employment rate in Australia increased by 39.7 thousand, continuing to grow after adding 37.4 thousand in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 30.0 thousand Full-time employment increased by 41.7 thousand, despite the previous decrease of 7.6 thousand, while part-time employment decreased by 2.1 thousand, after an increase of 45.0 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. These impressive figures confirm the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) ability to ease monetary policy further.Meanwhile, the US dollar is stabilizing after the average trading session: The US Federal Reserve, following its last meeting, left the key rate at 5.50%, but left the door open for a rate cut in 2024. New economic forecasts from the Fed show a potential one and a half rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of this year, although market expectations hint at two such cuts. The latest US inflation data show a reduction in risks, which led to increased confidence among analysts in the possibility of the first rate cut in September. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy resources, showed a slowdown to 3.4% per annum and to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6667, 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725.Support levels: 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600, 0.6578.NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System confirmed the rate of 5.5% per annumDuring the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair is observing a moderate decline, reaching the level of 0.6166, after having recorded highs since January 15 a day earlier. This happened against the background of data on consumer inflation in the United States and the results of the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.At the last Fed meeting, the rate was kept at 5.5%. However, investors were particularly interested in the revised forecasts for the rate movement, which now show a decrease to 5.13% by the end of 2024, while previous estimates suggested a decrease to 4.60%. By the end of next year, it is expected to decrease to 4.13%, which is higher than the previously expected 3.90%. Current interest rate futures predict an even deeper decline of 46 basis points before the end of the year. At the same time, the May consumer price index showed a decrease from 3.4% to 3.3% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0% on a monthly basis, while the base index decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, which is lower than forecasts of 3.5%.Weak national macroeconomic statistics also have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar: the volume of retail sales carried out using electronic cards fell by 1.6% year-on-year in May after a decrease of 3.8% earlier, and decreased from -0.4% to -1.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6175, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6082.Cryptocurrency market overviewThe quotes of the SOL/USD pair continue to weaken, aiming for a support level around 145.00, which has developed since last summer.The opinions of cryptocurrency market analysts differ: some experts suggest that the SEC's positive decision on applications for the creation of spot Ethereum ETFs may contribute to the launch of a similar fund based on Solana, which will support the growth of the value of SOL/USD. At the same time, other experts point to judicial decisions regarding the Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, where the SOL token was classified as a security, which may become an obstacle to its trading, although cases against Solana Labs have not been initiated.During this period, the company is strengthening control over the activities of validators: 30 operators were excluded from the delegation program for violations, having lost the opportunity to receive rewards for participating in the verification of transactions in the blockchain. According to CoinDesk, some bots were used for manipulation on decentralized financial platforms. In March, in the wake of the surge in popularity of meme tokens on Solana, Jito Labs temporarily disabled the mempool to prevent "sandwich attacks", but then activity increased again in private pools. Tim Garcia, who oversees the work with validators at Solana, confirmed that the company will continue to combat abuse by identifying and terminating cooperation with operators involved in unfair practices.Resistance levels: 159.60, 183.40.Support levels: 145.20, 121.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing moderate growth, holding near the $82.00 per barrel mark.This increase is supported by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which global oil demand will reach 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 1 million barrels more than in 2023. In the following years, the agency expects further growth in demand: up to 104.2 million barrels in 2025 and up to 105.0 million barrels per day in 2026. In parallel, the IEA predicts an increase in capital investments in the development of extractive capacities: after $ 538.0 billion was invested in this area in 2023, it is expected that in 2024 these investments will increase by at least 7%. This is especially true for non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States.Resistance levels: 82.90, 85.10.Support levels: 81.10, ...
EUR/USD: German inflation puts pressure on the euroAgainst the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair shows a corrective trend, trading at 1.0795 under the influence of German macroeconomic data.In May, the consumer price index in Germany decreased by 0.1%, which was lower than the 0.2% growth forecast by analysts, as well as the 0.5% figure recorded earlier. Despite this, the annual rate increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, and the EU-harmonized index increased from 2.4% to 2.8%. Thus, the necessary reduction in inflation to start adjusting interest rates in the EU has not yet been observed. If inflation continues to rise in other countries, the risks of tightening monetary policy will increase significantly, which may lead to the formation of a new downward trend in the EUR/USD pair. Traders' attention was also attracted by a slight increase in the GfK Group consumer confidence index in June, which rose from -24.0 to -20.9 points, exceeding the forecast of -22.5 points.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0920.Support levels: 1.0770, 1.0670.AUD/USD: inflation statistics in Australia exceeded forecastsThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed results, remaining near the 0.6600 mark and the minimum values from May 24. Investors are waiting for the publication of tomorrow's US macroeconomic statistics on inflation, which is expected to clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024. Earlier, analysts expected a rate cut in September or November, predicting at least two cuts of 25 basis points during 2024. However, experts now believe that the reduction will happen once in December. In addition, the consumer confidence index rose from 97.5 points to 102.0 points in May, despite the projected decline to 96.0 points, which may complicate the fight against inflation for the US Federal Reserve.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar barely reacted to Wednesday's published data. The consumer price index rose from 3.5% to 3.6% in April, although 3.4% was expected. Inflation in Australia has reached a five-month high, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates again, given the significant deviation of the current consumer price index from the target level of 2.0%. Currently, most analysts believe that the regulator will not ease monetary policy this year, and some allow another increase in the interest rate.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.USD/JPY: Seiji Adachi clarified the condition for the interest rate correction in JapanThe USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs reached on May 1 and weakening the uncertain bullish trend observed since the beginning of the current trading week. The instrument is testing the 157.15 level for a downward breakdown, while investors are preparing for the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States and Japan.Recall that on Friday, Japan will present May data on the consumer price index in the Tokyo region: analysts expect that the indicator, excluding prices for fresh food, will increase from 1.6% to 1.9%. Also at 01:50 (GMT+2), retail sales data for April will be published, where growth is projected from 1.2% to 1.9%, and industrial production, which is likely to slow from 4.4% to 0.9%. The day before, Seiji Adachi, a member of the board of the Bank of Japan, said that the regulator could raise interest rates if a sharp drop in the yen would lead to an increase in consumer prices or affect inflation expectations. Adachi also stressed that premature measures should be avoided so as not to increase pressure on the national economy, which underlines the importance of a weak yen in determining the timing of the next monetary policy adjustment.Resistance levels: 157.50, 157.98, 158.43, 159.30.Support levels: 157.00, 156.50, 156.00, 155.50.NZD/USD: the uptrend remains relevantThe NZD/USD pair dropped to 0.6095 amid unfavorable economic statistics from New Zealand.The business confidence index published by ANZ Group showed a value of 11.2 points in May, which was lower than the expected 15.0 points and the previous indicator of 14.9 points. Businesses continue to feel the impact of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's record high interest rate, which is at a 15-year high, which is holding back active investments. Representatives of the regulator have previously stressed the need to maintain a tight monetary policy in order to accelerate the achievement of inflation targets. In addition, in April, the number of building permits decreased by 1.9%, which was lower than the forecast of 1.5% and the previous value of -0.2%.Resistance levels: 0.6150, 0.6205, 0.6262.Support levels: 0.6070, 0.5992, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
