USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, ...
USD/JPY: Japan's financial authorities continue to test the digital currencyThe trading instrument USD/JPY is moderately declining, reinforcing the momentum of the "bears" since the beginning of the week. The asset is at 139.40, continuing to decline, while markets await the publication of US jobs market data by the end of the week.Meanwhile, the Japanese regulator reiterated its intention to continue testing the digital yen on the background of a positive test result in the second phase of the pilot project, which began last spring to this spring and showed a detailed analysis on the technology, allowing the use of maximum limits on the operation of the token. At the same time, the regulator's experts were conducting research on the timeframe for replacing traditional banking services with a transition to a new digital asset. As a reminder, starting June 1, Japan will implement a new set of rules to monitor the country's digital payments and transfers in order to track and detect criminal profits. So, from today, any financial institution that receives a cryptocurrency transaction in excess of $3,000 for processing will need to report details on the exchange company's client or the founder of the recipient.Resistance levels: 139.67, 140.21, 140.91, 141.50.Support levels: 138.90, 138.00, 137.50, 136.50.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency is approaching the low of NovemberThe NZD/USD currency instrument is trading with moderate losses, reaching the area of 0.6000 for further declines, moving towards the local low of November 10. The instrument is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of the PRC and New Zealand.Earlier published block of macroeconomic data reflected a downward correction in China's manufacturing sector business sentiment by the National Bureau of Statistics for May to 48.8 points from 49.2 points, with estimates of growth to 49.4 points, while the service sector declined to 54.5 points from the previous 56.4 points, beating the 50.7 point forecast. Business optimism from the RBNZ for May strengthened to -31.1 points from the previous -43.8 points, beating estimates of -43.4 points. A week earlier the financial authorities raised the cost of borrowing to the target level of 5.5%, after which they allowed the index to decline soon on the background of fixing stable economic indicators, and weakening inflation, which, in turn, continues to hold negative indicators. Minor support for the instrument was provided by the Chinese statistics. Thus, the Caixin business activity of the manufacturing sector for May increased to 50.9 points from 49.5 points, beating the neutral forecasts of experts, and the release of the May statistics on the labor market in the US is scheduled for Friday, the expectation of which keeps the attention of economists. The markets forecast a weaker dynamics of new vacancies in the agricultural sector down to 190.0 thousand from 253.0 thousand. Meanwhile, investors allow to see a slight change in the number of unemployed to 3.5% from 3.4%, which will be the first correction of the indicator in a long time.Resistance levels: 0.6043, 0.6100, 0.6150 and 0.6200.Support levels: 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900, 0.5850.GBP/USD: US mortgage rates continue to riseDuring the morning session the GBP/USD trading instrument shows mixed sentiment, testing the 1.2450 area and the local high of May 24. Pound intends to recoup the losses of the end of the previous week, but the upward dynamics is hindered by the strong position of the US dollar.So, the American currency again took the target to overcome the level of 104.000 on the USD Index. The increase in the cost of the threshold of the 30-year mortgage program to 6.91% from 6.69% triggered the decrease in the number of applications for the purchase of houses on the mortgage program of the index from 158.3 points to 154.4 points, which caused the pressure on the mortgage market index to 197.4 points from 205.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2100.Crude Oil market overviewAfter the asset declined two sessions in a row and renewed the local low of May 4, the price of WTI oil shows a correction at 68.57 in Thursday's trading, waiting for a new impetus to move.Wednesday's report showed an additional negative trend for oil. Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil reserves as of May 26, the value increased by 5,202 million barrels against the previous decrease of 6,790 million barrels. Today, on June 1, the market participants expect the previously announced statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which analysts forecast a decrease of 1.220 million barrels, which will continue the previous decline of 12.456 million barrels last week.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 72.50.Support levels: 68.04, 67.00, 65.74, ...
EUR/USD: euro zone consumer prices may continue growingThe EUR/USD trading instrument is slightly strengthening, making up for the sharp decline seen the day before, which resulted in a renewal of the local low of April 11. The single currency in Europe resumed its attempts to hold above the level of 1.0900, but is short of stimulus by the end of the week. Technical factors and market panic caused by the increasing probability of default in the USA, as the negotiation process between the Republicans and the Democrats on the debt ceiling correction is far from being completed.Today analysts expect the release of consumer price statistics in Spain and France. According to the preliminary estimates, the April index calculated according to the EU formula will remain at the same level of 4.1% and 6.9% respectively. In turn, according to the results of a survey conducted in March by the European Central Bank, most consumers expect a continued upward price correction, despite the current reduction in inflationary trends and significant adjustments in the cost of borrowing. Most respondents agreed that the correction could reach 5.0% over the next 12 months, surpassing the February survey result of 4.6% and 2.9% three years later, up from an earlier estimate of 2.4%.Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.AUD/USD: market assesses the probable consequences of the default in the U.S.Currency pair AUD/USD is under the influence of contradictory sentiment, holding in the area of 0.6700. Macroeconomic data bloc from the U.S. and China has strengthened the bears in the asset, which gained advantage amid the global GDP outlook.Investors are focused around the assessment of the announcement of the U.S. default on servicing the foreign public debt amid disagreements between the Democrats and Republicans, which excludes the agreement between the parties on the increase or suspension of the current national debt ceiling. In the U.S., long consultations in the government are expected, which are associated with an increased likelihood of the most negative scenarios, as participants in the debates are more likely to shake up the situation. Amid the uncertainty, market participants also took a look at jobless claims data. For example, weekly volume for May 5 rose to 264, thousand from 242.0 thousand, with estimates rising to 245.0 thousand, and secondary claims for the week to April 28 rose to 1.813 million from 1.801 million, contrary to an expected increase to 1.820 million.Resistance levels: 0.6728, 0.6750, 0.6795, 0.6816.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6641, 0.6590.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency is actively growing upDuring the APAC trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair showed strong bearish dynamics formed earlier and reached 0.6260, developing a decline that has already surpassed the 100.0 pips step from the local peak of February 14.Negative sentiment in the asset increased at the end of the trading week due to weak macroeconomic statistics in New Zealand. Thus, the manufacturing sector business activity for April rose to 49.1 points from 48.1 points, falling short of the analyst community's forecast of 50.7 points. In its turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revised downward its own inflation estimates for the second quarter to 2.79% from 3.30%, giving experts hope that at the end of the next meeting the regulator will keep the interest rate at the same level.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6150 and 0.6100.USD/CAD: global "triangle" pattern holds in the pairThe USD/CAD trading instrument is coming back under the dominance of the American currency and has reached the level of 1.3493.Total Canadian construction approvals for March rose 11.3% to $11.8 billion, driven by a 32.0% increase in non-residential contracts of $5.2 billion, with ten new projects reported, each surpassing the $100.0 million mark. Residential real estate, after strengthening in February, declined by 0.9% or to $6.6 billion in cash equivalents as the number of building licenses issued for residential buildings reached only 21,400 thousand in March, with experts pointing to the low solvency potential of the population.Resistance levels: 1.3550 and 1.3700.Support levels: 1.3360, ...
USDJPY: dollar weakening has strengthened the yenThe Japanese currency, influenced by the general market trend, has strengthened against the American currency, allowing the USDJPY to hold at 134.45.The Japanese stock market is closed today because of the Children's Day and the Green Day holiday, so traders will return to the market only on Monday. On the eve of the weekend, the national regulator's quarterly report came out. Besides, Kazuo Ueda, the head of the central bank, said the previous day that labor remuneration in the country will grow considerably this year. The governor confirmed that Q1 2023 wage growth of 3.0% over last year's 1.9% is just the first steps and the dynamics will only increase in the future. Ueda said he hoped that investors and the public will have more confidence in monetary policy approved by the regulator, which will give the yen a positive momentum on global trading floors.Meanwhile, the U.S. currency updated monthly lows, falling to 100.800 on the USD Index following a meeting of U.S. Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy, after which the interest rate rose 0.25 percent to a target of 5.25 percent. The outlook for the Fed's further inflation response plan left investors disappointed. For example, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would not comment further on the regulator's future actions to adjust the interest rate, but the official expressed confidence, the cycle of monetary tightening is nearing completion.Support levels: 133.10, 130.40.Resistance levels: 135.90 and 138.00.NZDUSD: the national labor market has strengthened the New Zealand currencyThe downward trend in the U.S. dollar gives the NZD/USD pair an opportunity to strengthen its positions, against the background of which the asset reached the level of 0.6248.The day before the New Zealand dollar got an additional support from the employment market statistics, which showed that the unemployment rate for Q1 remained at 3.4%, having beaten the experts estimates of 3.5%. The value stabilized thanks to a 0.8% gain in employment, well above the 0.2% for Q4 in 2022. Economic activity rose in the share to 72.0% from 71.7% in the past. This kind of economic backdrop gives the New Zealand dollar a high prospect of breaking March's peak.Resistance levels: 0.6290 and 0.6380.Support levels: 0.6190, 0.6090.Crude Oil market analysisNorth American light crude oil WTI is developing a downtrend in the area of 69.17.The correction was intensified after Turkey discovered a new field in the middle of the Gabar mountains, near the city of Jizra. Thus, the head of the national Turkish pipeline conglomerate noted that the approximate volume of raw materials of the new field exceeds 1.0 billion barrels, or 70.0 billion dollars in cash equivalent, with the ability to develop the production capacity to 100.0 thousand barrels per day, which allows calling it the largest on a national scale. Hydrocarbon production will focus primarily on foreign markets, which will make a significant adjustment to the balance of the market, because so far the Republic of Turkey has been increasing the volume of imported "black gold".Resistance levels: 71.70, 80.70.Support levels: 66.50, 60.00.FTSE 100 analysisThe key index of the London stock market FTSE 100 is showing a corrective dynamic at 7756.0. The United Kingdom stock exchange slightly decreased the growth dynamics due to ambiguous company reports and stabilization in the bond market.The day before the biggest Danish energy giant Ørsted A/S had released financial statistics according to which its revenue amounted to DKK 29.37 billion, largely exceeding analysts' expectations of DKK 18.48 billion. There was also a significant increase in earnings at the updated share price, which now stands at 4.6 kroner to last quarter's loss of 0.78 kroner.In turn, investors assessed the reporting of the largest banking institution in the Kingdom Banking Group Plc. which recorded a decline in revenue to 4.81 billion pounds to 5.0 billion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, earnings reached £0.0331, beating analysts' estimates of £0.0212 and the previous £0.0227 for the previous quarter.Support levels: 7650.0, 7420.0.Resistance levels: 7860.0, ...
NZDUSD: upward correction is developingDuring the Asian trading session the currency pair NZDUSD reflects the contradictory sentiment, being at the price level of 0.6180, remaining attractive for buying from the previous week, where quotes retreated from the low of March 10 due to the corrective momentum in the U.S. dollar.Positive New Zealand macroeconomic backdrop contributes to the instrument's support. For example, April consumer confidence from ANZ Banking Group of Australia and New Zealand rose to 79.3 points from 77.7 points, beating most analyst expectations. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector declined activity in the same period to 49.2 points from 51.9 points, contrary to estimates of a decline to only 51.4 points. Statistics from the PRC also had a positive impact on the instrument, as business activity for April in the service sector fell to 56.4 points from 58.2 points, beating sharper market forecasts of a decline to 50.4 points.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6250, 0.6288, 0.6350.Support levels: 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000.USDJPY: Japanese regulator announced a monetary parameter testAccording to a source from the trading floors, the currency instrument USDJPY reflects a moderate strengthening, being in a confident bulls momentum from the end of the previous week. The pair reached 136.85, marking a new high of March 10.The US currency is getting support from the expectations of the Fed to correct its monetary parameters following the announced meeting on May 2-3. The overwhelming majority of experts agree in assessments about the increase in the cost of borrowing by 0.25%, which will be followed by a wait-and-see attitude of the agency, completing the current cycle of interest rate increases.In turn, the pressure on the Japanese currency increased at the end of the previous week amid the release of the final minutes of the meetings of the Japanese financial authorities. According to preliminary forecasts, the BoJ left the interest rate at negative -0.1%, with little change to its short-term guidance, abandoning its commitment to continue interest rate support at the current and/or lower levels. Also, the agency raised its own forecast for national inflation. Officials now expect consumer prices to reach 1.8% for the current fiscal year and 2.0% in 2024-2025, but may reduce the growth rate to 1.6% in 2025-2026.Resistance levels: 137.50, 138.50, 139.58, 140.79.Support levels: 136.50, 135.57, 134.50, 133.61.USDCHF: Swiss regulators might tighten control over the banking sectorDuring Asian trading session USDCHF asset developed a contradictory sentiment, being in the area of 0.8945, as investors retained fears on further prospect of a new banking crisis on a global scale.Wishing to pacify panic moods in the markets, the National bank of Switzerland supported toughening of control supervision, and also for legislative obligation for credit institutions to have the minimum amount of assets, capable to cover need in liquidity in case of unforeseen circumstances. The publications confirmed the lack of stability in the retail trade sector: the March statistics showed a 1.9% year-on-year decline in real turnover, with the monthly change showing a -0.1% correction. Against the backdrop of the negative trend, Switzerland's leading economic indicators fell from 99.2 points to 96.4 points, reinforcing the negative trend for the franc.Resistance levels: 0.9000 and 0.9160.Support levels: 0.8880, 0.8720.AUDUSD: bears gain advantage before RBA meetingAUDUSD trades around 0.6636, ahead of the meeting of the Australian regulator, announced for Tuesday, May 2.Experts expect the interest rate to remain at 3.60%, which will allow assessing the effectiveness of cumulative measures taken earlier to stabilize consumer inflation. Contrary to the positive trend and the correction to 1.4% from 1.9% on the quarterly basis and to 7.0% from 7.8% over the year, the inflation rate is not going down as fast as was expected by the expert community. Against this background the RBA statement about keeping the key rate at the previous level will give a negative signal to investors and will stimulate the pressure on the Australian dollar to 0.6570 or lower, to 0.6480. In its turn the National Manufacturing PMI for Q1 was released on Friday showing the index growth to 1.0% from 0.7% beating market expectations of 0.8% but the annual rate was down to 5.2% from 5.8% negatively affecting the Aussie dollar.Resistance levels are at 0.6660, 0.6780 and 0.6905.Support levels: 0.6570, ...
EURUSD: the level of business activity in Eurozone has started to improveThe EURUSD trading pair is in a corrective trend and is keeping close to 1.0981.The single currency in Europe is influenced by contradictory factors due to the published earlier macroeconomic data in the EU. Thus, business activity of the manufacturing sector in Germany declined from 44.7 points to 44.0 points in April, while the service sector value increased from 53.7 points to 55.7 points, which allowed the composite index of the manufacturing sector in the euro area to shift to the downward correction from 47.3 points to 45.5 points, business activity on the S&P Global Composite Index was 54.4 points against the previous 53.7. Today the release of key indicators of the evaluation of the current situation and business sentiment in Germany was announced, where analysts forecast positive dynamics.Resistance levels: 1.1050 and 1.1200.Support levels: 1.0920, 1.0750.GBPUSD: pound holds the current levelsGBPUSD is showing mixed sentiment, not moving away from 1.2435, waiting for signals for a move. At the end of the previous week the "Briton" went into moderate strengthening, entering the "green" zone to the opening positions of last Monday.The macroeconomic data from Great Britain, published at the end of the week, could not provide the expected support to the pound. For instance, retail sales for March lost 0.9% from a previous increase of 1.1% for February, against analysts' estimates of -0.5%, while the annual value reduced the downward momentum to -30.0 points from -36.0 points, beating market expectations of -35.0 points. Meanwhile, the business activity of the services sector index of S&P Global for April strengthened to 54.9 points from 52.9 points, and the composite index of S&P Global/CIPS strengthened to 53.9 points from 52.2 points, though experts expected the correction in the area of 52.5 points.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2283, 1.2236.NZDUSD: New Zealand currency made a new lowThe currency pair NZDUSD is under a moderate decline, strengthening the advantage of the "bears" in the asset, which came the day before, which allowed the instrument to reach the local lows of March 10. The pair is testing the level of 0.6130, while investors are waiting for the forthcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Experts give 90% probability that the regulator will announce a 0.25% increase in the cost of borrowing at the end of the meeting and then take a break.The market remains at a low activity level at the beginning of the trading week amid the closed New Zealand markets due to the national holidays. In turn, the macroeconomic publications calendar is clear today in the USA as well, which allows investors to win back Friday's data.Thus, the U.S. manufacturing sector business activity from S&P Global showed a strong strengthening to 50.4 points from 49.2 points, contrary to expectations of a decline to 49.0 points, while the service sector showed a correction to 53.7 points from 52.6 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of a decline to 51.5 points. Business activity in the composite index for April strengthened to 53.5 points from 52.3 points, surpassing the experts' estimate of 52.8 points.Resistance levels: 0.6150, 0.6200, 0.6250 and 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6049, 0.6000, 0.5938.USDCHF: pair expects new stimulusDuring the Asian trading session USDCHF instrument demonstrates a contradictory dynamics, holding positions at 0.8929.Economists are estimating the macroeconomic background, trying to forecast the risks of economic recession in the USA. The additional problem with the potential for development is the standoff between Republicans and Democrats on the issue of the national debt limits, because the acting leader Joe Biden stands for the increase of the upper limit of the acceptable debt level without any conditions, and the Republican wing insists on the reduction of the expenditure part in the budget in order to slow the active growth of the debt load.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8800, ...
NZDUSD: сontradictory moods prevail in the pairThe pair NZDUSD shows a mixed trend staying in the area of 0.6200. The market is still in low activity, compensating for Friday's sharp decline on April 14, when traders were studying the U.S. macroeconomic statistics.For instance, industrial activity for March strengthened to 0.4% from 0.2% and the engaged asset ratio was 79.8% from last week's 79.5%, contrary to market expectations for a slowdown to 79.0%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence from the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April increased to 63.5 points from 62.0 points. However, the market also noted a sharp decline in retail sales, as the March reading was down 1.0%, continuing the previous correction of 0.2% for February, against analysts' estimates of only -0.4%, and auto demand was down 0.8%, with a zero swing for the prior period contrary to estimates of -0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6166, 0.6138, 0.6100.USDCAD: Canada's manufacturing sector has declinedStabilization in the value of the U.S. dollar allowed the currency pair USDCAD to test 1.3487.The Canadian currency was under the pressure since last Friday due to the manufacturing sales data for February, as the value decreased by 3.6% against the previous month to 71.5 billion CAD against a 4.5% strengthening of the previous month. All twelve industries were negative, led by the coal and oil sectors, which lost 14.9%, primary metals processing, down 4.2%, and automobile manufacturing, down 12.3%. The indicator continues to be negatively impacted by corrective declines in selling prices and demand volume due to high national inflation which could trigger further declines in the monthly value.Resistance levels: 1.3420 and 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3110.Gold price analyticsThe precious metal is quoted up, having earlier undergone a downward correction last Friday, April 14. The asset is set to cross the psychological threshold at 2000.00 again, being under pressure on market expectations for tighter monetary parameters from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the future.Friday's data from the USA has aggravated such investor sentiment, that is why more than 80.0% of experts bet on the interest rate increase after the summit of the agency announced for May 2-3. The retail sales in the United States were weak, because in March the value fell by 1.0%, having earlier decreased by 0.2%, having been revised down from -0.4%, while analysts expected the fall by only 0.4%. Investors also expect the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of England to continue their cyclical key rate increases as well, but each regulator will be guided by published macroeconomic statistics for the regions. So, tomorrow, on April 18, the release of the Canadian consumer inflation data for March is announced. According to the preliminary market estimates the consumer price index will decrease to 4.3% from 5.2% and the base value of the Central Bank of Canada to 4.2% from 4.7%.Resistance levels: 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00, 2085.00.Support levels: 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00, 1943.80.Crude Oil market overviewDuring the morning session, the price of the "black gold" of the benchmark Brent grade is under the influence of contradictory factors, holding at 86.00. By the end of the previous week the asset showed a moderate decline, but the potential of the "bulls" is preserved.Meanwhile, according to the survey statistics, Russia has renewed a new peak of 3.5 million barrels of oil transported by sea per day, surpassing the level recorded before the military invasion of Ukraine and further approval of economic restrictions by Western countries. Thus, Russian exports are now focused on the development of new markets, primarily China and India, whose share is up to 90.0%, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, to 8.0% supplied to Europe. On the eve of Russia did not exceed the figure of 25.0% of oil imports to China, but now the figure has strengthened to 36.0%, while India purchased only 1.0% of the fuel to the current 51.0% supplied by Russia of the total supply. In turn, IEA experts noted the collapse of Russian revenues from hydrocarbon sales by 43.0% in the annual figure to 12.7 billion in March.Resistance levels: 86.00, 87.00, 88.79, 91.00.Support levels: 84.50, 83.50, 82.64, ...
EURUSD: Euro is going to develop the bulls' momentumEURUSD is showing moderate strengthening at 1.0925 and is developing the correction made earlier. In the background investors are not willing to increase the number of deals ahead of the release of macroeconomic indicators on the dynamics of consumer prices in the U.S., the market activity remains low.Meanwhile the day before the release of the European retail sales data was a serious barrier for the euro. Thus, the March value declined 0.8% as analysts expected and the figure for the previous month had strengthened by a similar step with the annual expression shrinking by 3.0% against February's decrease of 1.8% which beat the preliminary estimate of -3.5%. Also market confidence from the Sentix index rose to -8.7 points from -11.1 points, beating experts' expectations of -9.9 points, while the value of the current environment for business conditions showed an uptrend for the sixth month in a row, correcting to -4.3 points from the previous -9.3 points signaling economists to successfully overcome the challenges of winter months, surpassing fall forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.NZDUSD: the pair is set to hold above the 0.6200 thresholdThe NZDUSD currency pair is moving in a weak corrective rally, recovering positions lost earlier in the week. The asset is at 0.6200, getting support from a low market activity, as investors are eager to see the announced U.S. inflation statistics.Economists are predicting that the yearly rate of consumer prices for March will fall to 5.2% from 6.0%, and the monthly rate could fall to 0.3% from 0.4%, but the core inflation rate could rise to 5.6% from 5.5%. However, if there is a big divergence between the real rate and the expected one, the U.S. regulator will get an incentive to increase the interest rate by 0.25% during the May meetings. On Thursday, April 13, the consumer price data will be supplemented by the manufacturing price index statistics. Analysts expect the value for the year to fall to 3.0% from 4.6%, while for the month the figure will remain zero, having previously declined 0.1%.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350.Support levels: 0.6166, 0.6138, 0.6100, 0.6049.Crude Oil Market ReviewDuring morning trading, North American WTI crude oil quotations are in mixed dynamics, sitting at 81.50.Meanwhile Bloomberg reported that Russia probably lowered its March oil production by 700,000 barrels. The analysts of the publication refer to the closed report in the Ministry of Energy, which noted the average daily production in the country at 1.28 million tons, while crude oil and gas condensate hold at 1.4 million tons, which is the equivalent of 10.36 million barrels per day, down from 11.1 million barrels in February. Experts argue that such data discrepancies with the volume of marine exports and deliveries to refineries in March, only increasing doubts about the authenticity of open statistics on production in Russia. On the eve of the official Kremlin said about a voluntary correction of crude production volume by -500.0 thousand barrels per day for March-December, as part of mirror measures to establish the upper limit of oil price by the authorities and members of the G7. According to the government, the correction exceeded the announced limits by 40.0%.Resistance levels: 83.00, 85.00, 86.95, 90.00.Support levels: 81.00, 79.24, 78.00, 76.00.Silver analyticsThe price of the precious metal is testing the 25.30 mark."Bulls" are taking advantage of the weakening U.S. currency, strengthening silver's position on trading floors as the U.S. dollar is visibly declining against the entire global currency basket and instruments of the metal group. For instance, at the beginning of March silver moved up sharply from the 20.00 level to the current limit, with the USD Index falling to 101.5 points in the same period from the previous 105.0 points, as part of the high correlation coefficient.Additional support for the asset is provided by the high attractiveness of the physical metal, which reached the peak of purchases by central banks in March. Thus, according to the report of stock exchange Borsa Istanbul, the Turkish republic added 123.15 tons of silver, having increased by 49.0% against March, setting a national record for the entire history of monitoring since 1999. The past peak of 102.66 tons was updated in August 2020.Support levels: 24.60, 23.20.Resistance levels: 25.83, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
