Trading signals and online forecasts NZD/USD

USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, ...

In the United States, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for March will be published.Earlier, a similar study by the University of Michigan showed a marked deterioration in sentiment caused by political uncertainty. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, will also give a speech today.The IFO business activity index will be published in Germany. Investors are waiting to see if it will confirm the positive signal from the manufacturing PMI or repeat the decline in the services sector.Sweden will release producer price index data for February. The focus of attention will be on the sub-component of the domestic supply, which most accurately correlates with consumer prices.The Hungarian Central Bank will make a decision on the rate today. The regulator is expected to keep it at 6.50%, which is in line with the market consensus forecast.The People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key rate (1-year rate on medium-term loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the Central Bank of China is currently taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Eurozone: mixed PMI dataThe eurozone PMI for March was weaker than expected, although it generally reflected moderate economic growth. The composite index rose to 50.4 (expected 50.7), which is higher than the February reading of 50.2. The main growth was provided by the manufacturing sector, where the PMI unexpectedly rose to 48.7 (expected 48.2). However, the service sector disappointed, falling to 50.4 (forecast of 51.1, previous value of 50.6).Overall, the PMI data signals a positive start to 2025, with expected GDP growth of 0.2% QoQ. However, these data do not provide clear signals for the ECB's April rate decision, and the market has not changed its expectations yet.USA: industrial downturn amid tariff risksThe preliminary US PMI for March fell to 49.8 from 52.7 in February, reflecting a slowdown in business activity. The data shows the opposite trend compared to the eurozone.The manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction zone again amid uncertainty around trade tariffs, which was reflected in rising commodity prices and lower order volumes and employment. At the same time, the service sector showed a solid recovery, rising to 54.3 (from 51.0).The market reaction to this data was mixed. The EUR/USD exchange rate declined slightly, and the US stock markets played back positive expectations for easing trade restrictions. Donald Trump said that car tariffs will be introduced, but not all measures will take effect on April 2. It is possible that some countries will receive exceptions, which keeps the uncertainty around the US trade policy.UK: PMIs beat forecasts, supporting the poundThe preliminary PMI indices for March in the UK turned out to be better than expected, which led to a decrease in the EUR/GBP exchange rate. The composite index rose to 52.0 (expected 50.5), while growth in the service sector was particularly strong — 53.2 (forecast 51.0). At the same time, the industrial sector continues to experience difficulties, its PMI was 44.6 (47.2 expected).Despite the weak February data, employment figures began to improve. However, this increase should be interpreted with caution due to the increase in the national insurance contribution of employers since April. Pressure on prices in the service sector is decreasing, while the situation in industry remains ambiguous. In general, the data supports the scenario of a gradual easing of the Bank of England's policy with quarterly rate cuts.The geopolitical situationFollowing the talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia continued discussions aimed at establishing a maritime truce in the Black Sea ahead of negotiations on a broader ceasefire in Ukraine. Despite US optimism, the ongoing strikes between the sides highlight the fragility of the 30-day ceasefire.European countries remain skeptical about Russia's willingness to make real concessions, which increases uncertainty around possible agreements. A meeting of the US and Ukrainian delegations is scheduled in Saudi Arabia today.Stock markets: optimism amid lower trade risksEncouraging news about a possible easing of tariffs led to a rise in US stock indexes:• S&P 500 +1.8%• Nasdaq +2.3%• Russell 2000 +2.6%Investors took advantage of the moment to buy, especially the activity was high among Mag 7, which made this the best day for the group since January. Tesla became the main growth leader, adding 12%.In Europe, stock indexes remained at the same levels, despite the positive PMI data. However, activity in cyclical sectors such as banks and commodity companies indicates a latent increase in interest in risky assets.Nevertheless, optimism is waning today: Asian markets are showing multipolar dynamics, and futures on American and European indices are declining.Bonds and the foreign exchange market• The US indices showed growth, and the S&P 500 closed above the 200-day moving average again, which is associated with hopes for a reduction in tariff pressure.• US and European bond yields rose slightly, while spreads to peripheral assets narrowed in Europe.• The EUR/USD pair continues to trade around 1.08, and the improvement in market sentiment has put pressure on the yen.• In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28, but the reaction of the foreign exchange market was restrained, as this step was expected.• The Norwegian krone was supported by rising oil prices, and EUR/NOK dropped below 11.40.• The Swedish krona strengthened and ended yesterday's session at its lows since the end of 2022, breaking the 10.90 mark.ConclusionsFinancial markets remain in a zone of uncertainty:• In the US, PMI data show a slowdown in industry, but growth in the services sector is still offsetting the negative effect.• In Europe, the PMI confirms a modest improvement in the economy, but does not provide clear signals for the ECB.• Geopolitical factors remain a key risk for the markets, despite the truce talks.Today, investors' attention will be focused on data on consumer confidence in the United States, as well as decisions by the central banks of Hungary and ...

NZD/USD analysis on March 25, 2025The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure against the US currency, trading in a narrow range near the 0.5725 mark. The pair is holding at local lows, updated on March 14, reflecting the dominance of "bearish" sentiment.The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics, which is facilitated by multidirectional macroeconomic data. In March, the S&P Global index of business activity in the services sector rose from 51.0 to 54.3 points, exceeding analysts' expectations (51.2 points). However, the index in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly dropped from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which was a signal of a slowdown in industrial growth.The New Zealand dollar received support after the publication of data on the Australian economy. The index of business activity in the service sector strengthened from 50.8 to 51.2 points, and in the manufacturing industry (according to data from Judo Bank) increased from 50.4 to 52.6 points.One of the key factors in the strengthening of the NZD/USD was the February performance of New Zealand's foreign trade. Exports increased from $6.06 billion to $6.74 billion, while imports decreased from $6.6 billion to $6.23 billion. This allowed the trade balance to reach a surplus of 510 million dollars, whereas a month earlier the deficit was recorded at the level of -544 million dollars.The New Zealand economy has emerged from the deepest recession since 1991, unrelated to COVID-19. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the country's GDP grew by 0.7% after declining by 1.1% in the previous period. However, the prospects for further growth acceleration remain limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to continue to regulate interest rates to support the recovery in domestic demand and strengthen consumer confidence.Senior Economist at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon noted that the quarterly economic growth exceeded market expectations (0.5%) and was in the upper limit of the forecasted range. The largest contribution to the recovery was made by the service sector, real estate, retail, hospitality, healthcare and social support.Technical analysis of NZD/USD for todayThe indicators give mixed signals on the daily chart.:• The Bollinger indicator is narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility, but the range remains wide enough for active movements.• The MACD is declining, remaining below the signal line and approaching the zero mark, which indicates a continuing downward potential.• Stochastic has started to exit the oversold zone, which may signal an attempt to reverse upward in the near future.Trading recommendations• Sales can be considered after the breakdown of 0.5700 with a target of 0.5650. The protective stop loss is 0.5730.• If the exchange rate recovers and fixes above 0.5750, purchases with a target of 0.5800 are possible. The stop loss is ...

EUR/USD: bulls get a chance to update local peaksDuring Asian trading, the European currency remains near the 1.0489 mark, correcting after the recent update of local highs on January 27. The market is showing restrained dynamics, as at the moment there are no important macroeconomic factors that can set the direction of movement. Investors focused on the possible resumption of tariff restrictions, which US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the month.Starting on March 4, 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which were previously postponed for a month as part of preliminary agreements, will come into force. At the same time, the introduction of similar measures against EU products is not excluded, as Trump has repeatedly accused Brussels of unfair trade policy towards the United States. Experts believe that pressure on the European Union may increase in the framework of negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, given the resistance of individual countries in the region. In addition, the US president has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which also causes controversy in international relations.The market's focus remains on the comments of European officials, which may give signals about the future monetary policy of the ECB. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the regulator's governing council and head of the National Bank of Belgium, called for a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in order to avoid the risk of an excessive decline in the indicator. In turn, Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, noted that price dynamics allow us to expect the target inflation rate to be reached this year. In this regard, market participants predict that the ECB will cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at the next meeting, as inflation, which exceeded double digits after the events of 2022, has now stabilized just above 2.0%. Additionally, traders drew attention to the final German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024: the country's economy shrank by -0.2% in quarterly terms and by -0.4% year-on-year, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the market expects a rate cut of 75 bp during the yearThe GBP/USD pair shows a downward trend during the morning trading session, returning to a corrective decline. The exchange rate is testing support at 1.2640, while traders expect new factors to appear that could affect further movement. Market participants continue to analyze the macroeconomic statistics for last Friday, assessing its impact on the prospects of the British currency.The January retail sales data in the UK turned out to be higher than expected, which supported the strengthening of the pound. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 1.7% after falling by -0.6% in December, although only 0.3% growth was forecast. On an annualized basis, sales slowed from 2.8% to 1.0%, but exceeded the projected 0.6%. Excluding fuel, growth was 2.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected at 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. However, business activity showed mixed results: the S&P Global index in the industrial sector in February fell from 48.3 to 46.4 points against forecasts of 48.4 points, while in the service sector the indicator strengthened from 50.9 to 51.1 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 50.8 points.The issue of the rate of interest rate reduction by the Bank of England remains in the spotlight, as stated by the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra. During her speech at Birkbeck, she noted that a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing does not necessarily mean a standard reduction of 25 basis points. At the same time, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most experts predict that the British regulator will continue to ease monetary policy, reducing the rate by 75 basis points during the year.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2690, 1.2747, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.NZD/USD: the pair is preparing for continued growth after a pullbackDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair fell back to around 0.5710 after steadily rising 3.5% in January and February. Despite the correction, the overall macroeconomic background remains favorable for the continuation of the upward movement. According to published statistics, the core retail sales index in New Zealand for the fourth quarter increased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The previous data was revised upward from -0.8% to -0.6%, and total sales for the same period increased from 0.0% to 0.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5%.Additional support for the national currency is provided by the prospect of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The regulator has already lowered the rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%, and, according to the head of the department, Adrian Orr, it is likely to reach 3.00% by the end of the year. This means that at least two more stages of decline are possible in the coming months. However, the current weakening of the New Zealand dollar is due to the strengthening of the US currency, which was the market's reaction to statements by US President Donald Trump about the introduction of new duties on copper imports. These measures contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.WTI oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices show a multidirectional movement during the morning trading session, consolidating around 69.00 and remaining at the lowest values since December 23, updated the day before. Expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are putting pressure on the market, which reduces demand for defensive assets, including commodities. The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting initiatives to end hostilities, while simultaneously taking steps to restore diplomatic ties with Russia. The first meetings of the delegations have already taken place in Saudi Arabia, and experts believe that if agreements are reached, a partial revision of the sanctions policy is possible, including easing restrictions on Russian energy exports via sea routes and pipeline systems.Additional pressure on oil is exerted by the resumption of exports of raw materials from Iraqi Kurdistan. On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that supplies would resume after the final approval of technical details with Ankara. According to experts, transportation volumes will amount to about 185.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market and limit the growth potential of oil prices.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 71.62.Support levels: 68.30, 67.00, 66.00, ...

On Wednesday, the NZD/USD remains under moderate pressure, which could lead to a further decline in the asset. However, it is unlikely that the pair will drop significantly below the 0.5715 support level. However, in the event of a breakdown of this level, our previous forecast with the asset recovering to the level of 0.5790 is subject to revision.In the short term, analysts expected the NZD/USD to move in the range between 0.5735 and 0.5770, which actually happened — the pair reached both levels and closed at around 0.5733.The downward momentum of the pair may strengthen today, but the pair is likely to remain above 0.5715. The "bearish" scenario will persist if the pair does not overcome the pivot level of 0.5760. Then we consider an increase to the nearest resistance at 0.5745.Daily timeframe analysis (D1)On the daily chart, after a break above the 50-day moving average (MA), NZD/USD exceeded the previous high, forming a new higher peak. However, the momentum from the breakout weakened, leading to the current correction. The demand zone formed at the drop-base-rally level, combined with the 50-day MA, is expected to provide sufficient support for the resumption of the upward movement.Analysis of the 4-hour timeframe (H4)On the 4-hour NZD/USD chart, the demand zone from the daily timeframe coincides with the minimum of the bullish SBR (Support-Break-Retest) pattern. Additional support factors are the presence of the FVG (Fair Value Gap), the level of the 100-period moving average, support at 76% of the Fibonacci grid and liquidity in the area of the previous induced minimum.All this forms the prerequisites for a bullish scenario with an initial target at the BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity) level near the recent high.Forecast and key levelsDirection: UpwardTarget: 0.57713Cancellation: 0.56004The current dynamics of the NZD/USD pair indicates a high probability of resuming growth, especially given the strong support zone on the daily and 4-hour timeframes. However, it is important to take into account that a break below the level of 0.56004 may cancel the current scenario and increase pressure on the pair. Attention to the key support and resistance levels remains crucial to determine the future direction of ...

EUR/USD: week closes with mixed movementsIn Asian trading, the euro showed uncertainty: at the beginning of the week, it was under pressure, which led to an update of the February 13 lows at 1.0400 for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, yesterday the European currency regained a significant part of its losses, approaching the 1.0500 mark, near which trading ended. Currently, the market's attention is focused on statements by representatives of financial departments trying to give the market signals about their future decisions in the field of monetary policy. For example, Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB governing council, said that the regulator should not interfere with lowering rates, since January inflation at 2.5% is still moving towards the 2.0% target planned for this year. However, other officials have expressed concerns about a possible acceleration in price increases due to rising energy prices and harsh tariff measures from Republicans in the White House, while others are concerned that the weakness of the eurozone economy could slow down inflation below the desired level.The position of the US dollar weakened yesterday under the influence of the publication of new economic data confirming that it is premature to talk about the end of the crisis. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week to February 14 increased from 214 thousand to 219 thousand, with expectations of 215 thousand, and repeated applications on February 7 increased from 1.845 million to 1.869 million, although the forecast was 1.87 million. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's industrial business climate index also disappointed the market, falling from 44.3 to 18.1 points. Data on the construction of new homes in the United States turned out to be no less alarming: after an increase of 16.1% in December, the number of bookmarks in January decreased by 9.8%, reaching only 1,366 million instead of the projected 1,400 million. In addition, the focus was on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, published on Wednesday, where the authorities indicated concern about a possible acceleration of inflation, which many interpreted as a signal of a slowdown in monetary policy easing. Nevertheless, the initial plan for 2025 remains in place, which assumes only two rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342.USD/CHF: employment data gives NBS reason to continue easingIn Asian trading, the USD/CHF pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 0.8978 level and demonstrating the potential for further decline amid favorable economic reports on the employment and real estate markets in Switzerland.Data released the day before showed that employment in the fourth quarter amounted to 5.387 million people, an increase of 0.6% compared to last year. At the same time, the number of working men increased by 0.4%, women — by 0.8%, and the total number of employees increased by 0.3%. Despite the increase in the share of unemployed to 4.4% from 4.0% a year earlier, the overall unemployment rate remained at the same level (2.7%). This gives the Swiss National Bank additional reasons to maintain a soft monetary policy at the next meeting.The improvement in the state of the economy is also confirmed by a significant reduction in the budget deficit to 80.0 million francs, although a deficit of 2.645 billion francs was previously expected. This result indicates the successful repayment of debts incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was made possible by reducing emergency expenses, in particular, postponing payments of state aid to Swiss Railways (SBB), as well as by increasing tax revenues, which exceeded the forecast by 1.2 billion francs.Support levels: 0.8960, 0.8820.Resistance levels: 0.9040, 0.91 70.AUD/USD: employment in Australia remains resilient to RBA measuresThe AUD/USD pair is trading with a correction near the 0.6396 mark, taking advantage of the weak dynamics of the US currency, due to which the Australian dollar retains short-term growth potential.Recent economic statistics confirm experts' expectations that the easing of the monetary policy of the Australian regulator is unlikely to last long. Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.1% and an increase in the total number of unemployed by 500 people to 615.1 thousand in January, total employment improved by 33,700 jobs, amounting to 14.616 million, which is 0.2% more than in December. The ratio of working citizens to the total population also increased from 64.4% to 64.6%, while the number of full-time employees increased by 19.9 thousand, reaching 10.083 million people. Thus, the employment market in Australia demonstrates significant resilience to the measures of the Reserve Bank of the country.Support levels: 0.6340, 0.6190.Resistance levels: 0.6430, 0.6560.NZD/USD: New Zealand reported a deficit of NZD 486.0 million for the monthThe NZD/USD pair has been gradually strengthening since the beginning of the month, trying to stay above the 0.5737 level (Murray's mark [6/8]). During the current week, the movement was multidirectional: initially, there was a decrease after the announcement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy decisions, but soon the currency was able to recover and return to previous positions.The regulator decided to reduce the key interest rate by 50 basis points, lowering it to 3.75%, and confirmed its intention to continue its soft policy to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. However, according to the head of the RBNZ, Adrian Orr, negative scenarios are possible due to the trade initiatives of the US republican administration. He added that the rate could be lowered to about 3.0% by the end of the year, suggesting at least two more steps down in the near future. At the same time, the positions of the US Federal Reserve do not allow investors to make confident forecasts: the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that the US regulator plans to slow down the pace of monetary policy easing until inflation shows a convincing decline to the target 2.0%, and the details of the US trade strategy are not clear.Resistance levels: 0.5859, 0.5981.Support levels: 0.5615, 0.5493, ...

NZD/USD trading idea on February 21, 2025ARTEM_DEEV During Friday's Asian session, NZD/USD shows neutral dynamics. The pair is trading near two-month highs at 0.5760. The volatility of currency pairs in the market remains low due to the end of the trading week and the lack of significant economic data.This week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. This is the fourth consecutive decline since August 2024, totaling 175 basis points. The head of the RBNZ, Adrian Orr, said that the regulator still has a lot of work to do to stimulate the economy, which is trying to get out of recession amid rising unemployment.Orr confirmed plans to further reduce the rate by about 50 basis points by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Market participants expect that the next 25 basis point decline may occur as early as April and May. However, the prospects for further monetary policy easing in the context of a weak New Zealand economy continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the medium term.The US dollar remains in an advantageous position as a defensive asset. This week, a group of Republican senators submitted to Congress a bill on the complete withdrawal of the United States from the United Nations (UN). The move reflects the administration's desire to focus on national interests, but critics warn it could destabilize the global order.In addition, traders are monitoring the protracted process of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The meeting of representatives of Russia and the United States on Monday did not lead to concrete results, which adds uncertainty to the markets.Data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors will be published in the United States today. Both indicators are expected to rise, which may support the dollar and increase pressure on risky assets, including NZD/USD.Trading Recommendation- Sell Stop: 0.5740- Target (TP): 0.5600- Stop Loss (SL): ...

EUR/USD: EU assesses risks from new US trade tariffsThe EUR/USD pair maintains a corrective trend near the 1.0456 mark, awaiting the release of fresh macroeconomic data, while the fundamental background remains neutral.The administration of Donald Trump postponed the introduction of tariffs on European imports until April, which, according to analysts, will not have a serious impact on the EU economy: steel and aluminum supplies from the region account for only 2.0% of the total, and the value of American exports already exceeds European, even without new duties. ECB board member Fabio Panetta believes that the US tariff policy will not lead to an increase in inflation in the eurozone, but its possible slowdown below the target level of 2.0% requires special attention from the regulator. At the same time, the head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, warns that the German economy may be the most vulnerable to trade restrictions from the White House.Against the backdrop of the US Presidential Day celebrations, the dollar showed low volatility, and the Fed's monetary policy remains a key factor for the market. On Wednesday, the minutes of the January meeting of the regulator will be published, where investors hope to find hints on the timing of a possible interest rate cut. Meanwhile, inflation in the United States is showing the fastest growth rates in the last 18 months, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the rate in March is estimated at 97.5%, which contributes to the stability of the dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0280.GBP/USD: the head of the Bank of England announced the stagnation of the country's economyThe pound is correcting downwards in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, playing back the growth of the previous day, when quotes updated the maximum since December 19. The instrument is testing the 1.2600 level for a breakdown, while investors are waiting for fresh data on the British labor market. According to forecasts, the average wage in December may accelerate from 5.6% to 5.9%, unemployment will increase from 4.4% to 4.5%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 0.7 thousand to 10.0 thousand.Market participants' attention is also focused on the upcoming speech by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, at 11:30 (GMT+2), where he may announce possible steps by the regulator regarding the interest rate. Earlier, the official described the country's economic growth rate as "static", despite unexpectedly strong data for the fourth quarter of 2024.: GDP increased by 0.1% instead of the expected decline, and year-on-year growth was 1.4% against the projected 1.1%. However, the Bank of England revised its GDP expectations for 2025 from 1.0% to 0.75%, and during its last meeting on February 6, it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, expecting inflation to rise to 3.7% in the third quarter.Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), January UK inflation data will be released on the market: analysts expect an increase in the annual consumer price index from 2.5% to 2.8%, while a correction of -0.3% is possible in monthly terms. The base index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.6%. Retail sales reports will be released on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2), and February business activity statistics from S&P Global will be released at 11:30 (GMT+2). The index in industry is expected to rise to 48.5 points from 48.3 points, and in the service sector to 51.0 points from 50.9 points. Expectations for similar American indicators suggest a continuation of the level of 51.2 points in the manufacturing sector and an increase in the services index from 52.9 points to 53.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2776.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: quarterly growth of Swiss GDP was 0.4%The USD/CHF pair continues to develop upward dynamics, having tested the 0.9030 level for an upward breakout during morning trading. Markets remain waiting for new drivers, as the American stock exchanges were closed the day before due to the celebration of Presidential Day. Investors are analyzing Friday's reports: retail sales in the United States in January decreased by 0.9% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.1%, and annual growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, while industrial production fell to 0.5% against forecasts of 0.3%.In Switzerland, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in January, but showed an increase of 0.1% over the month. Today, market participants' attention is focused on industrial production data for the fourth quarter, where the indicator is expected to remain at 3.5%. Additional support for the franc was provided by information on the growth of Swiss GDP by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which confirms the stability of the national economy, despite the slowdown in annual growth to 0.8% from 1.2% in 2023. The final estimate of the indicator will be presented on February 27.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8929, 0.8900.NZD/USD: experts expect RBNZ rate cut to 3.75%During the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar is significantly losing ground, falling to the area of 0.5705. This movement reflects a correction after the recent sharp rise, when the NZD/USD pair updated the maximum values recorded on December 18.At the same time, large-scale emigration is observed in New Zealand: the total number of citizens who left the country, including those who returned, reached 47.0 thousand, whereas a year earlier this figure was 43.3 thousand. According to Fortune, the vast majority of expats chose to move to Australia, hoping for broader career prospects abroad. With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand having already lowered its key interest rate by a total of 125 basis points since August last year, the regulator has yet to step up measures to support the economy, which is under pressure due to rising unemployment and the effects of the recession. According to a survey of economists conducted by Reuters, at the next meeting, the agency is likely to reduce the indicator by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%. Moreover, analysts predict an additional rate cut of 75 basis points over the course of the year. Investors are also expressing concern about a possible increase in the tariff policy of the Donald Trump administration, which could hit New Zealand's export-oriented sector. Earlier, the American president announced 25 percent duties on aluminum and steel imports, as well as counter-sanctions against countries that restrict access to American goods on their markets.Resistance levels: 0.5723, 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, ...

The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...