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Forex analytics for today August 10, 2021
Forex analytics for today August 10, 2021 EUR/USDThe European currency shows flat trading dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near new local lows since April 1. On the eve of the euro, it was again trading mainly with a downward trend, developing the previous "bearish" momentum, which strengthened last Friday after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market.Investors hope that now the US Federal Reserve will be forced to reduce existing economic incentives, but uncertainty still persists. Some support for the European currency yesterday was provided by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Thus, in June, the volume of exports from the country increased by 1.3% MoM after an increase of 0.4% mom in May. Analysts also expected the indicator to grow by 0.4% MoM. Imports for the same period slowed sharply from +3.4% mom to +0.6% MoM, which led to a noticeable increase in the trade surplus from 12.8 billion euros to 13.6 billion euros. The focus of the trading participants' attention today is the ZEW survey on the level of business sentiment in the eurozone for August.GBP/USDThe British pound is trading near zero against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near the 1.3850 mark and waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The instrument remains under pressure from the growing dollar, which received a new impetus to growth after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market for July last Friday. Now investors are waiting for comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, hoping that they will take a tougher position on the issue of reducing existing incentives. The British currency is slightly supported today by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the volume of comparable retail sales in July increased by a record 17% YoY after an increase of 6.7% YoY in June. Analysts had expected growth of only 13.1% YoY. This week, British investors are waiting for the publication of a large block of statistics from the UK, where the greatest attention will be paid to the country's GDP data for the 2nd quarter of 2021. The forecasts are very optimistic and assume the growth of the UK economy by 4.8% QoQ.NZD/USDThe New Zealand dollar shows a fairly active decline against the US currency during the Asian session, updating local lows since August 3. Trading participants continue to buy the US currency, waiting for a reaction from the US Federal Reserve to the strong labor market report for July, published at the end of last week and reflecting an increase in new jobs outside the agricultural sector by almost 1 million, which significantly increased the chances of tightening the monetary policy of the regulator by the end of this year. Today's statistics from New Zealand have a weaker impact on the instrument. Thus, the volume of retail sales using electronic payment cards in New Zealand in July increased by 0.6% MoM after an increase of 0.8% mom in June. Analysts ' forecasts suggested a decrease of 4% MoM. In annual terms, sales accelerated from +4% YoY to +4.7% YoY, which coincided with market expectations.USD/JPYThe US dollar shows a slight increase in the pair with the Japanese yen during trading in Asia, updating local highs since July 26. Investors returned to buying the US currency after a slight correction the day before, when some buyers hurried to close their long positions. The main driver for the dollar remains expectations from the US Federal Reserve of actions aimed at reducing current incentives, against the background of the release of a confident report on the labor market for July. The macroeconomic statistics published today from Japan does not prevent the development of "bullish" dynamics in the nearest time intervals. Thus, the volume of bank lending in the country in July slowed down from + 1.4% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which, however, turned out to be significantly better than analysts ' expectations at +0.2% YoY. At the same time, the forecast of developments from Eco Watchers in July sharply decreased from 52.4 to 48.4 points, while the market expected a reduction to only 50.2 points.XAU/USDGold prices show a corrective growth during the morning session, weakly recovering from record sales for two consecutive sessions. On the eve of the quotes collapsed to four-month lows amid actively growing investor fears that the US Federal Reserve will take action to reduce incentives by the end of this year against the background of the publication of a strong report on the US labor market last Friday. Additional pressure on the instrument was exerted by the growing yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as the general rise in market ...
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Currency market overview for the week 26-30 of July, 2021
Currency market overview for the week 26-30 of July, 2021 At the end of the last week, almost all major currencies showed a decline. The Australian dollar showed the largest decline against the US dollar (-0.79%). A smaller drop was recorded by the New Zealand dollar (-0.62%), the British pound (-0.39%), the Canadian dollar (-0.24%), the Japanese yen (-0.22%) and the euro (-0.19%). Only the Swiss franc grew (+0.04%).On Monday, the US dollar fell significantly against a basket of other currencies, as investors ' attention turned to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The euro rose significantly against the US dollar, despite the data on Germany. The IFO business climate index unexpectedly fell in July due to ongoing concerns about the supply chain and an increase in the number of coronavirus infections. The pound has risen strongly against the dollar, as the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the UK has decreased.On Tuesday, the US dollar fell moderately against a basket of major currencies, as investors refrained from making large bets ahead of the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The dollar as a whole rose for more than a month on expectations that as the economic recovery gains momentum, the Fed will begin to reduce its monetary support. According to positioning data, last week, short-term traders became net buyers of the dollar for the first time since March 2020. As for domestic data, consumer confidence in the United States reached a 17-month high in July, which indicates that the economy maintained a high growth rate at the beginning of the third quarter. Continued fiscal support and better access to COVID-19 vaccines prompted the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday to update its forecasts for the United States and other rich countries, while lowering its estimates for a number of developing countries. In general, the IMF maintained its forecast of global economic growth at 6% for 2021.On Wednesday, the US dollar fell slightly, reacting to the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The central bank left the range of interest rates on federal funds between 0.00% and 0.25%, as expected. The Fed made it clear that the economy has shown progress in meeting the employment and inflation targets set by the central bank. In addition, the regulator hinted at the possibility of curtailing asset purchases later this year. Since the end of last year, the Fed has stated that it will continue monthly bond purchases worth $ 120 billion until the economy shows "further significant progress" in achieving the central bank's goals: low unemployment and annual inflation of 2.0%. On Wednesday, the Fed noted that there is progress in this direction, and also announced its intention to continue to assess the degree of progress in the framework of further meetings. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell said that monetary policy should remain soft until the recovery is complete.On Thursday, the US dollar fell to a one-month low after the US Federal Reserve's assurances that an interest rate hike is not expected in the near future. This signal gave a significant boost to most other currencies, from the Australian dollar to the Chinese yuan. China's efforts to mitigate the unrest in the stock market caused by its strict regulatory measures in some sectors also helped: the yuan rose for the second day in a row, and reached a one-week high against the US dollar. The US dollar, which has been actively rising since the Fed's June meeting, has recently lost its momentum, and the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks that there is still "a long way to go" before raising rates, were enough to lower the currency even lower. The movement of the dollar allowed the euro to rise to a two-week peak. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which depend on global and Chinese economic growth, continued the growth recorded on Wednesday, although the growth of the Australian dollar was limited by concerns that the extension of the COVID-19 quarantine in Sydney will negatively affect the national economy.The US dollar rose moderately on Friday as upbeat economic data helped reverse some of the losses suffered earlier this week when dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve halted the US currency's monthly rally. The dollar also strengthened after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the Fed should start reducing monthly bond purchases this fall and reduce them "quite quickly" so that the program ends in the first months of 2022, and to pave the way for a rate hike in 2022, if necessary, the dollar found some support after data showed that US consumer spending in June rose more than expected, as vaccination against COVID-19 increased demand for travel and leisure services, although in part this increase reflected higher prices, and annual inflation accelerated further above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar, but approached a one-month high after data showed that the euro zone economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, emerging from a recession caused by the pandemic, while inflation in July exceeded the ECB's target of ...
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Forex forecast and analytics of NZD/USD for August 2-3, 2021
Forex forecast and analytics of NZD/USD for August 2-3, 2021 The New Zealand dollar shows a moderate decline against the US currency during the Asian session, retreating from the local highs updated the day before, and trying to gain a foothold below the psychological level of 0.7000.The strong growth of the instrument yesterday was due to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, according to the results of the 2nd quarter of 2021, the US GDP increased by only 6.5% y/y after an increase of 6.3% y/y in the 1st quarter (revised from +6.4% y/y). Analysts' forecasts were much more optimistic and assumed an increase of 8.5% y/y. Another negative factor for the US currency was the statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. For the week of July 23, the number of initial applications decreased from 424 thousand to 400 thousand, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at the level of 380 thousand.The data from New Zealand did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Nevertheless, the ANZ consumer confidence index fell from 114.1 to 113.1 points in July.Support and resistance levelsThe Bollinger bands on the daily chart show flat dynamics within the forex forecast. The price range expands from above, freeing the way for the "bulls" to new local highs. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a moderate buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line). Stochastic, after a short decline, again demonstrates weak growth, while signaling the growing risks of overbought New Zealand dollar in the ultra-short term.Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7017, 0.7050, 0.7100.Support levels: 0.6970, 0.6950, 0.6921, 0.6900.Trading ScenariosThus, the Forex forecast and analytics of NZD/USD for August 2-3, 2021, to open long positions, you can rely on the breakdown of the 0.7017 mark up. Take profit — 0.7070. The stop loss is 0.6990. Implementation period: 2-3 days.A confident breakdown of the 0.6970 level down may be a signal for new sales with a target of 0.6921. The stop loss is ...
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NZD/USD Forex forecast for today, June 8, 2021
NZD/USD Forex forecast for today, June 8, 2021 The New Zealand Dollar US Dollar NZD/USD Forex currency pair is trading at 0.7215 and continues to move within the bullish correction and bearish channel. The pair is trading below the lower edge of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator Cloud. This indicates the presence of a bearish trend in the New Zealand Dollar-US Dollar pair. As part of the NZD/USD Forex forecast for June 8, 2021. The lower border of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator Cloud is expected to test near the 0.7235 level. Where to expect an attempt to rebound and further fall of the NZD/USD pair. The target of such a movement on Forex is the area near the level of 0.6805.An additional signal in favor of the fall of the NZD/USD currency pair will be a rebound from the resistance area. The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. Earlier, a weak signal was received for selling the New Zealand Dollar to the US Dollar. The signal was formed due to the intersection of signal lines at the level of 0.7270. NZD/USD Forex signal for today, June 8, 2021 The cancellation of the option of falling quotes of the NZD/USD pair will be the breakdown of the upper border of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud with the closing of quotes above the 0.7305 area. This option will indicate a bearish trend in favor of a bullish trend and the continuation of the pair's growth. Expect an acceleration in the fall of the NZD/USD quotes with a breakdown of the support area and a close below the 0.7105 level.Thus, the NZD/USD Forex forecast for today, June 8, 2021, suggests an attempt to test the resistance level near the 0.7235 level. Where should we expect the currency pair to continue falling with a potential target near the level of 0.6805? The cancellation of the pair's decline option will be a breakdown of the 0.7305 area. This will indicate the continuation of the pair's rise in Forex with a goal above the level of ...
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Articles about financial markets

Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34 Moscow time. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
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