EUR/USD: waiting for money from investing in Euros abroadThe European currency is retreating from the recent highs reached at the end of December 2023, and is currently testing the level of 1.1075 for a possible breakdown downwards. Market participants are preparing for the publication of July inflation data, which will take place today and will become an important guideline for the European Central Bank (ECB) in making monetary policy decisions.Analysts predict that on a monthly basis, the consumer price index will decrease from 0.2% to 0.0%, and on an annual basis it will grow from 2.5% to 2.6%. The base monthly indicator may fall from 0.4% to -0.2%, and the annual indicator may remain at 2.9%. If these forecasts are confirmed, it will indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure in the European economy, which may strengthen market expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates in September. Currently, investors expect at least two rate adjustments before the end of the year. Today, data on industrial inflation in Germany were also published: in July, the index increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, but the annual rate slowed by 0.8%, which, however, turned out to be better than the previous indicator of -1.6%.In the morning at 20:00 (GMT+2), American investors are watching how registration takes place on the site, and how the date is set above 5.50%. Investors will look for signals in the document about a possible easing of monetary policy at the September meeting. However, the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole will be of key importance for the dynamics of the dollar, where leading economists, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, are expected to speak, which is likely to touch on the topic of adjusting interest rates and the impact of prolonged hawkish policies on the economy. Recall that in early August, data on the US labor market raised fears of a recession, which led to expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, but then the situation stabilized, and now investors estimate the probability of such a step at 30.0%.Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930.GBP/USD: in November, UBS expects a 25 bps rate cut in Britain.The pound sterling shows mixed dynamics in the pound/dollar pair, consolidating near the recently reached local highs since July 18. Market activity remains low, as investors are cautious, avoiding opening new positions before the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy and speeches by representatives of world central banks at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. The market is trying to estimate the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, but as sentiment improves and fears of a recession decrease, this scenario becomes less likely.On Friday the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is expected to speak, during which he can clarify plans for further easing of monetary policy. UBS analysts at AG Group note that the latest UK inflation data indicate a gradual decline towards the 2.0% target, which significantly increases the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a possible acceleration of this process in 2025. In July, the consumer price index decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% on a monthly basis, and increased from 2.0% to 2.2% on an annual basis, which turned out to be lower than the projected 2.3%. The base index also decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis and from 3.5% to 3.3% on an annual basis. However, the unemployment rate in June adjusted from 4.4% to 4.2%, and employment increased by 135.0 thousand against the forecast of 14.5 thousand, which indicates a significant excess of inflation targets.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CHF: growth for the second time was 6.4%The pair/demonstrates a corrective movement of the USD/CHF pair, holding near 0.8620 during the morning session, as the Swiss franc continues to strengthen against the background of positive macroeconomic data.According to a report by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, in the second quarter of 2024, the secondary sector of the economy showed growth of 6.4% year-on-year, and turnover increased by 4.7%, reaching the highest level since 2021. Industrial production also showed strong growth: in April by 8.0%, in May by 8.6%, and in June by 5.6%, which led to an overall increase of 7.3% over the quarter. Positive dynamics is also observed in the construction sector, where turnover increased by 1.6%, with the highest growth rates in civil engineering (+13.1%). These data indicate a possible further strengthening of the Swiss franc, as business activity in these industries is likely to recover.Support levels: 0.8580, 0.8430.Resistance levels: 0.8670, 0.8790.NZD/USD: RBNZ is ready for a long-term reduction in monetary ratesIn the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar continues its steady growth, which began at the end of last week, and is approaching the 0.6120 mark, striving to overcome this level and update local highs from July 12. At this time, market participants are being cautious, refraining from active actions on the US currency, waiting for the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy and speeches by leading representatives of central banks at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, which starts on Thursday, August 22. Investors hope to receive new guidance on a possible interest rate cut in September, although the exact extent of the reduction — by a quarter or half a percent — remains in doubt.At the same time, the New Zealand dollar continues to receive support thanks to statements by the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Adrian Orr, who expressed his willingness to continue the policy of easing monetary incentives. At the last meeting, the regulator lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points, for the first time since March 2020, noting positive trends in reducing inflation to the target range of 1.0–3.0%. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.85% by the end of 2025 from the current 5.25%. At the same time, Reuters reported that most astronomers expect long-range communication with the station by 50 basis points at the end of the year. Support for this trend was also confirmed by the latest statistics, which recorded a steady increase in inflation: The producer purchase price index rose by 1.4% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had forecast growth of only 0.5%. Local pressure on the New Zealand dollar was exerted by data on foreign trade: exports in July fell to 6.15 billion New Zealand dollars, while imports increased to 7.11 billion, which led to a trade deficit of 963.0 million New Zealand dollars, although a surplus of 331.0 million was expected.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6153, 0.6175, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6085, 0.6068, ...
EUR/USD: The ECB is considering a rate cut on October 17thThe EUR/USD pair is at 1.0968. Although recent macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone have looked relatively stable, the European currency is showing a downward trend.The number of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) supporting President Christine Lagarde's policy of further lowering interest rates continues to grow. In particular, Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, noted that the labor market is significantly weakening, which may affect the level of investment and slow economic growth below normal. He added that the number of open vacancies decreased by 20% compared to two years ago, and the number of new employees fell by 10% compared to the maximum of the second quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, he stressed that inflation is under control, and regulators will strive to keep it at the target level of 2%. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galot also confirmed the possibility of easing monetary policy, saying that the expected slowdown in inflation makes an interest rate adjustment at the October 17 meeting almost inevitable, although questions remain about its size. Important comments on this issue are expected to be made today when ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speak. Rate changes may amount to more than 25 basis points, which in the short term will create pressure on the euro.On Monday, investors expect the release of statistics on retail sales in the eurozone for August: forecasts suggest a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on data on production orders in Germany, which fell by 5.8% in August after rising by 3.9% in the previous month, while expectations were at the level of a reduction of only 2%.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1120.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0830.USD/CHF: the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.6% in SeptemberIn the Asian session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight decline, deviating from the highs set on August 20, which were updated last week thanks to the support of American economic statistics.By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Switzerland increased from 2.5% to 2.6%, which came as a surprise to the market, which did not expect changes or predicted only a slight decrease. At the same time, the consumer price index decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to zero in August, which increases the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank will again decide to reduce the already low interest rate. However, on Tuesday, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, noted that inflation in the country is supported by rising prices for services and rent. In addition, wage growth remains below the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target range, set at 0.0–2.0%.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517, 0.8500.USD/CAD: bulls are developing a positive trend for the US dollarThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" trend established last week: quotes are testing the level of 1.3585, being near the local highs of September 19.The US dollar is significantly supported by the September labor market report published on Friday. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 159.0 thousand. Analysts expected an increase of only 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.8%, although the indicator slowed from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. It is worth noting that according to the instrument of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November is now less than 30.0%, while the week before last, before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this figure exceeded 60.0%.At the end of the week, a report on the Canadian labor market is expected to be published: employment is projected to grow from 22.1 thousand to 34.5 thousand, the average hourly wage will remain in the range of 4.9–5.0% and the unemployment rate at 6.6%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, announced his intention to expand the Board of Governors from six to seven members, introducing a new position of an external employee who will participate in voting on interest rate adjustments. This step is aimed at taking into account the difficult economic situation and will add new views and skills to the work of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3569, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.NZD/USD: the rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from the RBNZThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline last week, which led to an update of local lows since September 12. Quotes are currently testing the 0.6160 level for the possibility of an upward breakdown, while the macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable.Experts suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its meeting on October 9. Despite the lack of fresh inflation data, the July figures showed a more significant decrease than expected, amounting to 3.3%. At the same time, the base index exceeded the forecast of 5.4%. The decline in economic activity continues to put pressure on the regulator, pushing for an early approach of interest rates to the target 3.00%, according to analysts at ING Research. The latest RBNZ estimates suggest that the consumer price index will be 2.3%, and the base index will be 5.1% in the third quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254.Support levels: 0.6145, 0.6124, 0.6100, ...
EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, ...
EUR/USD: euro remains near local heightsThe EUR/USD pair shows a slight decrease, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. Now the instrument is trying to break through the level of 1.1120, while investors are waiting for the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed), starting today. In recent weeks, Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have repeatedly hinted at a possible interest rate cut this month. The deterioration of inflation indicators and the cooling of the labor market create conditions for easing monetary policy. Recently, markets have been increasingly predicting the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut. The FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows that the probability of such a move reached almost 60% at the beginning of the week, although just a week ago this scenario was estimated at 25-30%. By the end of 2024, the overall rate cut could reach 125 basis points. In addition, investors drew attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which unexpectedly rose from -4.7 to 11.5 points in September, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.9 points.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone did not have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate. The Italian consumer price index for August remained at 0.2% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual economic recovery and a return to pre-crisis indicators. The index calculated according to EU standards decreased from 1.3% to 1.2% in annual terms and from -0.1% to -0.2% on a monthly basis. The eurozone's trade balance in July, excluding seasonal fluctuations, decreased from 21.7 billion euros to 21.2 billion euros, although analysts had predicted a more significant decline to 14.9 billion euros.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: experts expect the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 0.5%The GBP/USD pair is approaching its annual highs, trading around 1.3206. Among the currencies of developed countries, the pound stands out as the only one showing strengthening against the US dollar, having added 3.9% since the beginning of the year.This positive trend is associated with the recovery of key sectors of the UK economy. Forecasts for the housing price index from Rightmove Group Ltd. They point to a possible increase in September: the indicator is expected to increase from -1.5% to 0.8% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.2% on an annual basis. Consumer inflation data for August, which will be released on Wednesday, are also in the spotlight. Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 2.2% year-on-year, while the underlying indicator may accelerate from 3.3% to 3.5%. This may indicate the need to maintain the current course of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In addition, the retail price index is expected to slow from 3.6% to 3.4% in August. These statistics will be key to the decision of the Bank of England, whose monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the next day. Experts assume that the regulator will leave the interest rate at 5.00%, but the comments of the bank's management will be carefully analyzed by investors to predict the further movement of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3400.Support levels: 1.3176, 1.3040.NZD/USD: New Zealand's services sector shows growth for the first time since AprilThe NZD/USD pair is showing an unstable decline, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6193 for a breakdown downwards, while traders are closely following the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.On the other hand, some support for the New Zealand dollar came from the country's macroeconomic statistics. At the end of last week, the market drew attention to the improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in August, which rose from 44.4 to 45.8 points. In addition, the index of business activity in the service sector from Business NZ rose from 45.2 to 45.5 points, reaching its highest since April. Despite the fact that both indicators remain below 50.0 points, indicating a reduction in activity, their growth shows some signs of stabilization. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled for October 9. Until then, investors' attention will be focused on the GDP data for the second quarter, which will be released on Thursday. Forecasts indicate a possible contraction of the economy by -0.4% on a quarterly basis and by 0.5% on an annual basis. If these expectations are confirmed, the RBNZ will probably decide to keep the interest rate at 5.25%, refraining from further changes.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6158, 0.6124, 0.6100.USD/CAD: markets are waiting for Canadian inflation data for AugustDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is making attempts to recover, but the US dollar is under pressure due to rising expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today, and according to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the probability of such a decision is now estimated at 59%. Investors also expect further rate changes before the end of the year.Canada's inflation statistics attract the attention of traders, as they may affect the future decision of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy. Preliminary forecasts indicate a slowdown in the consumer price index in August — from 0.4% to 0.1% on a monthly basis, and maintaining at the level of 2.5% in annual terms. In addition, it is expected to publish data on the start of construction of houses, which are likely to show a decrease from 279.5 thousand to 256.0 thousand. Earlier, the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, expressed concerns about the cooling of the labor market, falling oil prices and a decrease in immigration. He admitted that the interest rate adjustment may be more significant than expected, up to 50 basis points, which is twice the current rate of decline of 25 basis points. This may become necessary if the economy demonstrates sufficient resilience. In August, the unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.6%, compared with a low of 4.8% in 2022, while in the United States this figure reached 4.2% against 3.4%. Macklem expressed concern about the weakness of the labor market, noting that the employment rate and the number of vacancies had decreased to the levels observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since June, the Bank of Canada has already lowered the rate from 5.0% to 4.25%, which has slowed inflation to 2.5%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. Macklem stressed that a further decrease in inflation may be the reason for a more significant rate change.Resistance levels: 1.3607, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3582, 1.3550, 1.3524, ...
EUR/AUD: Australia's economic indicators have reduced pressure on the euroThe EUR/AUD pair is trading at 1.6627 on the morning of September 5, showing a slight increase of about 0.01% compared to the previous trading session. Market activity remains relatively stable despite the volatility caused by external macroeconomic data.The economic situation in the eurozone continues to be unstable. The index of business activity in the services sector (PMI) in August amounted to 47.9 points, which is lower than forecasts and indicates a slowdown in economic activity. At the same time, GDP data for the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The continued pressure on the eurozone economy is due to rising energy prices and the consequences of geopolitical instability.The Australian economy is also facing challenges. Recent retail sales data showed a decrease in the growth rate from 0.5% to 0.4%, indicating weakness in domestic demand. Despite this, the labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate is at 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not change the interest rate at the last meeting, keeping it at 4.1%, however, the head of the RBA announced the possibility of further tightening monetary policy in the event of a deterioration in the inflationary situation.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.NZD/USD: a tool on the way to corrective growthThe NZD/USD pair shows a slight increase, continuing to develop a weak upward momentum, which was formed after recovering from local lows reached on August 23. Now the instrument is trying to break through the 0.6200 mark, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important data on the US labor market, which will take place at the end of the week. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), a report from ADP on private sector employment for August will be presented. If the forecasts come true and the employment rate will rise from 122.0 thousand. up to 145.0 thousand, the US dollar may receive additional support, which will reduce the likelihood of softening the Fed's rhetoric at the September meeting.This week, investors also paid attention to the dairy product price index, a key export item of New Zealand. In August, the indicator decreased by 0.4% after an increase of 5.5% in July. Additionally, data on the ANZ commodity price index was published, which increased by 2.1% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month.Markets continue to analyze the next steps of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, which happened a little earlier than expected. This decision has caused optimism among businesses and consumers, strengthening confidence in the economic recovery. According to the regulator's forecasts, by the middle of next year the rate may fall below 4.50%. According to Centrix, the level of mortgage delinquency remains 12.0% higher than last year, but there is a positive trend against the background of lower borrowing costs, which contributes to the correction of consumer spending. Despite the recent rate hike, New Zealand house prices remain 19.0% below the November 2021 peak, less than half of the more than 40.0% increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6153, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan noted moderate growth ratesThe USD/JPY pair remains near the minimum recorded on August 5 at 143.50, while market activity remains subdued, as investors await the publication of data on the American labor market.Statistics from Japan continue to show mixed results. In July, the wage level fell from 4.5% to 3.6%, which exceeded forecasts of 3.1%, but this may put pressure on inflation, which the Bank of Japan focuses on when developing monetary policy. The index of business activity in the services sector remained at 53.7 points, below the expected 54.0 points, and the composite index rose from 52.5 to 52.9 points, falling short of the projected 53.0 points.Hajime Takata, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, noted that the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, despite the volatility in the markets in August. According to him, the country continues to move towards achieving the inflation target, and import prices are also rising. Takata added that the current real interest rate remains below the calculated one, which indicates favorable conditions for monetary policy. Experts expect that the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate again by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 147.00.Support levels: 143.35, 142.50, 141.68, 141.00.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAG/USD (silver) pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the level of 28.25. On the eve of the quotes were adjusted, retreating from the lows recorded on August 15. The main pressure on the price is exerted by the revision of short- and medium-term strategies of investors in response to large-scale stock sales, which also affected commodity markets.The activity of market participants remains low in anticipation of the publication of key data on the US labor market, scheduled for the end of the week. These data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on future monetary policy at the September meeting. The baseline scenario assumes a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points, but the probability of a more significant reduction by 50 basis points is estimated at no higher than 35.0%. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector is expected to grow from 114.0 thousand. up to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage will increase from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 3.6% to 3.7% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. Weaker data may increase the likelihood of a change in the monetary exchange rate, which will support the asset.Resistance levels: 28.30, 28.68, 29.00, 29.35.Support levels: 28.00, 27.60, 27.30, ...
AUD/USD: pair is trying to gain a foothold above 0.6800The AUD/USD pair shows an ambiguous movement, hovering around the critical resistance level of 0.6800. The market refrains from active actions in anticipation of new peaks, starting the year with attempts to consolidate at record levels.The publication of today's data on the Australian economy did not bring additional support to the Australian dollar. The slowdown in retail sales growth in July to 0% against the expected 0.3% may affect future decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Despite the lack of intentions to reduce the cost of loans in the near future, as stated by the head of the bank Michelle Bullock, the RBA anticipates that inflation will remain above the target range of 2.0-3.0% until the end of 2025, which implies a possible continuation of a high interest rate.The dynamics of lending in the private sector in July showed minor changes, confirming the stability of the previous months. American statistics affecting the Federal Reserve System, including the expected acceleration of the core index of personal consumption expenditures in July from 2.6% to 2.7%, will also be in the focus of investors' attention. It is expected that today's data on personal income and expenses will confirm this trend, which may become a catalyst for a change in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700.USD/CHF: the Central Bank of Switzerland has identified the problems of the manufacturing sectorDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF pair shows stable movement, having fixed near the level of 0.8480. There is a slight increase against the background of data from the United States, preparing for the end of the week.Traders are focused on the index of leading economic indicators from KOF, the projected decrease of which from 101.0 to 100.6 indicates economic difficulties. Thomas Jordan, the soon-to-retire head of the Swiss National Bank, highlighted challenges for the Swiss industry, including the strengthening of the franc and declining demand from the EU, especially from Germany. He reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining price stability with inflation between 0.0% and 2.0%, noting the importance of this for economic recovery. Jordan also stressed that the main policy instrument will be the interest rate, but did not rule out the possibility of currency interventions. Market participants estimate the probability of monetary policy easing at the next meeting on September 26 at 70% for a decrease of 25 basis points and 30% for a more aggressive change of 50 basis points.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.NZD/USD: July showed growth in the New Zealand construction industryThe NZD/USD trading instrument is experiencing a correction in light of the weak activity of the US dollar and positive New Zealand statistics at the level of 0.6262.In July, there was an increase in the construction of new homes in New Zealand: the total number of new projects amounted to 33,921 thousand per year, which is 22.0% lower than last year. The construction of 18,503 thousand multi-apartment buildings and 15,418 thousand detached houses was approved, which is 28.0% and 14.0% less than the previous data, respectively. Despite the overall reduction, 3,352 thousand more construction projects were approved in July, which indicates a possible turn in the positive direction.The US dollar showed a slight strengthening, reaching the level of 101.20 USDX, which was supported by data on US GDP, which showed growth of 3.0% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations (2.8%). There was also a slight decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits to 231.0 thousand from the previous 233.0 thousand, although the total number of applications increased to 1.868 million.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6230, 0.6080.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices continue to adjust within the framework of a weak downtrend, holding below the key level of $ 79.00 per barrel. The hydrocarbon market remains unstable, and quotations show frequent fluctuations against the background of mixed fundamental factors affecting the dynamics of the asset.Recent news related to the visit of OPEC Secretary General Haysam al-Gais to Iraq and Kazakhstan showed that these countries plan to compensate for the under-fulfilled volumes of oil production cuts that were not fulfilled under the OPEC+ deal from January to July 2024. Iraq intends to replace the missing 1.44 million barrels per day by September 2025, and Kazakhstan — 0.699 million barrels per day. These measures are aimed at maintaining the flexibility of energy price regulation and can contribute to the stabilization of global markets.Additionally, data on oil reserves in the United States were released this week. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), inventories decreased by 3,400 million barrels after the previous small increase of 0.347 million barrels. At the same time, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy recorded a decrease of 0.846 million barrels, which is in line with market expectations. The total decline in U.S. oil reserves since mid-summer has exceeded 31.0 million barrels, and this trend has been going on for more than nine weeks in a row, which may lead to complications in the recovery of reserves in the future.Support levels: 77.20, 73.30.Resistance levels: 80.00, ...
EUR/USD: ECB for gradual adjustment of rates in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, holding near the 1.1150 mark: market activity remains low, which limits the potential of the euro to update record highs.Macroeconomic statistics published the day before in the EU did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pair: the revised estimate of German GDP for the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3% in annual terms, but a decrease of 0.1% in the quarter. These data may become an additional argument for the European Central Bank (ECB) in favor of maintaining a "dovish" policy. At the same time, the revision of German GDP excluding seasonal fluctuations from -0.1% to 0.0% did not lead to significant changes in the market. Traders also drew attention to the deterioration in consumer confidence: the September index from Gfk Group fell from -18.6 to -22.0 points, despite expectations of -17.5 points. On Thursday, the final inflation data for August in Germany will be presented, where it is expected to slow from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.At the same time, the head of the Croatian People's Bank, Boris Vujicic, said that inflation is developing in accordance with forecasts, which makes it possible to gradually reduce the cost of borrowing, although risks remain, since inflation in the service sector continues to hold at 4.0%, and wage growth in the eurozone in the second quarter decreased to 3.6% from 4.7%. Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, supported this position, pointing out that the process of stabilizing price growth has been underway since the autumn of 2022, and decisions will be made based on the latest macroeconomic data.Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300, 1.1350.Support levels: 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1047, 1.1000.GBP/USD: British households are ramping up spendingThe GBP/USD currency pair has rolled back from the March 2022 highs reached a day earlier, and is now experiencing pressure from the 1.3240 level for a possible decline.The market reaction to the UK consumer spending data played a key role in this move. The report showed that the average weekly household spending reached 567.7 pounds, which is 7.0% higher than last year. A noticeable reduction in spending occurred in the food and non-alcoholic beverage categories, with a return to 2020 spending levels in key categories, while spending in cafes and restaurants continued to decline, reaching a 2020 low. Average wages decreased by 3.0%, reflecting a deterioration in purchasing power.At an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that despite the slowdown in inflation, the final victory over it has not yet been achieved. The consumer price index fell from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.0% in May and June. It is expected that statistics on the dynamics of lending in July will be published on Friday, it is expected to accelerate from 1.162 billion pounds to 1.3 billion pounds, which may support the exchange rate of the national currency.Resistance levels: 1.3280, 1.3470.Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3000.NZD/USD: ANZ points to the role of the RBNZ in the downturn in the real estate marketThe NZD/USD currency pair showed a moderate decline, hovering around the 1.1150 level, ahead of the expected rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week at an Economic symposium in Jackson Hole confirmed plans to adjust monetary policy, although he did not specify the specific parameters of possible changes before the end of the year.On the other hand, the latest economic data from New Zealand showed a 1.2% decline in retail sales in the second quarter after a 0.4% increase in the previous period, which puts pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Data on consumer confidence and building permits are also expected to be published, which may provide additional information on the state of the economy. In the United States, key inflation indicators are to be released, which may influence the Fed's further actions.ANZ experts emphasize the weakness of the New Zealand real estate market and the inconsistency of economic indicators, which may affect the decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy in the face of uncertainty in key economic sectors. These factors, coupled with international economic trends and political decisions, shape the dynamics of NZD/USD in financial markets.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6300, 0.6330, 0.6368.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6153.Silver market analysisAs of August 28, 2024, the price of silver is hovering around the level of $29.68 per ounce, which is 1.40% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market volatility and the influence of macroeconomic factors, including weak economic data from China and Europe.The economic situation in China continues to put pressure on silver prices. The second quarter of 2024 showed weak GDP growth in China, which caused unexpected steps by the People's Bank of China to reduce interest rates. This step is aimed at supporting the economy, but weak data on manufacturing activity and declining domestic demand continue to negatively affect demand for silver, especially in the industrial sector, which depends on the metal for electronics and renewable energy production.In addition, there is a slowdown in economic activity in Europe. Weak manufacturing activity (PMI) indicators in the eurozone continue to put pressure on silver, which in turn supports expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank before the end of the year. It also affects the mood of investors who are cautious amid uncertainty in the global economy.Resistance levels: $30.00, $31.00.Support levels: $28.50, ...
NZD/USD: RBNZ considers measures to combat inflation effectiveThe NZD/USD pair is recovering its positions after two days of decline, when quotes reached local lows since August 7. The exchange rate is currently testing the 0.6015 level for a possible upward breakout.The New Zealand dollar was supported by the statements of Adrian Orr, head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). He noted that the economic situation both in the country and abroad remains uncertain, despite efforts to keep inflation in the target range of 1.0–3.0%. Orr stressed that the current measures taken by RBNZ are sufficient to control price dynamics. The markets took these words as a signal to maintain a neutral monetary policy in the near future. Earlier, the RBNZ lowered the base rate to 5.25% for the first time since March 2020, with the possibility of further adjustments.Today, data on business activity in New Zealand were published: the index of activity in the manufacturing sector increased from 41.1 to 44.0 points in July. The indices of purchasing and selling prices of producers in the second quarter also showed an acceleration, exceeding analysts' expectations, which reduces the likelihood of further easing of monetary policy in the country.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6068, 0.6085.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.AUD/CHF: pair strengthens against the background of AUD weakness and CHF strengthAs of August 16, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair is showing strengthening, trading at 0.5731, which is 0.42% higher compared to the previous trading day. The pair shows steady upward movement despite the ongoing economic challenges in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data showed a decline in export performance and a continued slowdown in economic growth, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth. However, despite these measures, economic weakness and declining demand for key export commodities such as iron ore continue to keep AUD under pressure.On the other hand, the Swiss franc (CHF) remains strong due to the stable Swiss economy and continued low inflation. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to adhere to an interventionist policy, supporting the franc exchange rate in the face of global uncertainty and increased demand for safe assets. These factors contribute to the strengthening of the CHF, making it attractive to investors, which puts pressure on the AUD/CHF currency pair.Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5900.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5650.EUR/CAD: lower rates in Canada support euro growthOn August 16, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair shows moderate growth, trading at 1.5072, which is 0.07% higher compared to the previous day. This move reflects the advantage of the euro over the Canadian dollar against the background of recent economic news and market expectations.The economic situation in the eurozone continues to influence the euro exchange rate. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic activity in Germany, which creates certain risks for the euro. Nevertheless, expectations of monetary easing in the US are supporting the euro as investors look for more stable assets. In addition, inflation rates in the eurozone remain within the expected values, which also helps to keep the euro at current levels.The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is weakened by the actions of the Bank of Canada, which has cut its key interest rate twice in recent months, which was a reaction to the stabilization of inflation in the range of 2.5% - 2.7%. It is expected that in September 2024, the Bank of Canada may take additional measures to reduce rates if the economic situation does not improve. These expectations add pressure on the Canadian currency, which contributes to the growth of the EUR/CAD pair.Resistance levels: 1.5118, 1.5200.Support levels: 1.4896, 1.4800.Silver market analysisAs of August 16, 2024, silver prices are showing moderate strengthening, trading around $27.90 per ounce, which represents an increase of 1.65% over the past day. The silver price movement is related to the current geopolitical tensions, in particular, with the intensification of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which traditionally increases the demand for safe assets, including precious metals.The economic situation and expectations regarding the policy of the US Federal Reserve System also play an important role in shaping silver prices. Investors are closely monitoring US inflation data and expected changes in interest rates. It is assumed that the Fed's rate cuts may support demand for silver, especially in the face of weak industrial demand from the United States and China. At the same time, ongoing concerns about declining industrial demand from these key consumers limit the potential for price increases.In the long term, analysts predict a possible increase in silver prices due to the expected increase in demand for the metal in the green energy sector, especially in the solar energy sector, as well as a possible shortage of supply amid restrictions in silver mining.Resistance levels: $29.41, $30.00.Support levels: $26.10, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
