GBP/USD: the regulator has maintained the current rate of 4.75%The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2480 mark after the Bank of England expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.75%. The decision was supported by a majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee - six out of nine participants, while three supported a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, assuming only two supporters of such a measure.Analysts note a change in the emphasis in the regulator's rhetoric from "unstable" to "balanced", which indicates a possible continuation of adjustments in 2025. The Bank of England expressed concern about the acceleration of inflation, noting an increase in the consumer price index from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and revised down its GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to experts, the regulator may reduce the rate to 3.50% over the next year in order to adapt to changing economic conditions.The US dollar is showing steady growth, reaching the level of 108.10 in the USDX index. The dynamics are supported by strong macroeconomic statistics: US GDP increased from 3.0% to 3.1% in the third quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 220 thousand, exceeding expectations, and repeat applications decreased to 1.874 million. There was also an increase in sales in the secondary housing market in November by 4.8%, to 4.15 million, which almost reached the March peak of 4.19 million, strengthening the position of the US currency.Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2300.USD/CHF: Swiss economy expects production growth of 1.7% by 2026The USD/CHF pair is trading in a mixed mode, being at 0.8980. After the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States, the instrument shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local peaks recorded in early July.Statistics provided by Switzerland the day before showed a noticeable drop in exports in November from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports decreased from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus decreased from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's economy was previously forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. These figures remain below the average annual growth of the Swiss economy, which is 1.8%. SECO analysts emphasize that next year's economic recovery is likely to depend on domestic demand. This is due to the weakening of interest in Swiss goods from key trading partners such as Germany and China, which limits the prospects for the export sector.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey may fall to 47.50% as early as December 26In the morning, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, reaching 35.1500 and updating historical highs. The strengthening of the dollar is associated with expectations of a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which supports demand for the US currency.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to internal economic challenges. The Central Bank of Turkey is considering the possibility of further reducing the interest rate, which has been held at 50.00% since March. Despite a slight slowdown, annual inflation in the country remains high, reaching 47.0% in November after peaking at 75.45% in May. The authorities plan to reduce the rate to 35.00% in 2024, which creates the prerequisites for a soft monetary policy. Analysts expect that at the meeting scheduled for December 26, the Turkish regulator may reduce the rate by 250 basis points from the current 50.00% to 47.50%. However, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan had previously refrained from making specific statements, saying that the final decision would depend on current economic data and the inflation forecast.Resistance levels: 35.1500, 35.2167, 35.3000, 35.4500.Support levels: 35.1000, 35.0500, 35.0000, 34.9500.NZD/USD: consolidation near minimum levelsThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.5625 level. Market activity remains low after a sharp drop in the instrument on Wednesday, caused by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the mood of traders.Today's data from New Zealand does not provide significant support to the New Zealand dollar. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose slightly from 99.8 to 100.2 points in December, exports rose from $5.61 billion to $6.48 billion in November, and imports declined from $7.27 billion to $6.92 billion. As a result, the trade deficit decreased to -0.437 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of -1.951 billion dollars, but did not give a serious impetus to the instrument. A day earlier, New Zealand's GDP data for the third quarter was published. On an annualized basis, the economic growth rate slowed by 1.5% after a 0.5% decline a month earlier, although analysts' expectations were -0.4%. In quarterly terms, the indicator increased from -1.1% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecasts of experts who expected a decrease to -0.4%. Although these data indicate some recovery, they do not yet have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.5661, 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5607, 0.5563, 0.5511, ...
EUR/GBP: ECB ended the year by lowering all three key ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing smooth growth, continuing to strengthen after the bullish momentum recorded the day before. The quotes have retreated from the minimum values of March 2022 and are trying to break through the 0.8260 mark, showing stable upward dynamics.The British economy did not meet analysts' expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) for October. Instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, the indicator remained at -0.1%. Industrial production volumes also disappointed: in annual terms, the decrease was 0.7%, although growth of 0.2% was predicted, and on a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.6% instead of the expected 0.3%. This weak statistic increases the uncertainty surrounding the decisions of the Bank of England, whose next meeting is scheduled for December 19.Investors are analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) held the day before, where rates were reduced by 25 basis points. The key rate is now 3.15%, the margin rate is 3.40%, and the deposit rate is 3.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that domestic inflation is declining, but remains high, as the adaptation of wages and prices has not yet been completed. Forecasts for economic growth in the region have been revised downward: for 2024, the forecast is 0.7% instead of 0.8%, for 2025 — 1.1% instead of 1.3%, and for 2026 — 1.4% instead of 1.5%. Market participants' expectations are inclined to a more active reduction in ECB rates compared to the US Federal Reserve next year.Resistance levels: 0.8280, 0.8294, 0.8310, 0.8326.Support levels: 0.8259, 0.8238, 0.8223, 0.8200.USD/CHF: restoring the dominance of the American currencyThe USD/CHF pair is consolidating at 0.8927, demonstrating a corrective trend and willingness to continue moving up due to the strengthening of the US dollar.The Swiss National Bank maintains the stability of the franc through a dovish policy. The regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.50%, deviating from forecasts suggesting a decrease to 0.75% by 25 basis points. The regulator's statement emphasizes that the decrease in inflation in November turned out to be better than expected, which accelerates the achievement of monetary policy goals. In addition, the decision is due to low business activity, requiring affordable loans for recovery. Switzerland's economic prospects remain subdued, but analysts predict that GDP growth could reach 1.0–1.5% in 2025. This level will help to stabilize key economic processes and accelerate market recovery.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8890, 0.8780.NZD/USD: household spending in New Zealand remains under pressureThe NZD/USD pair is showing growth, reaching the level of 0.5765, despite the continued strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to move within the downward trend due to signs of slowing economic activity. According to the National Statistical Service of New Zealand (Stats.nz ), the volume of sales of electronic cards, reflecting the level of consumer spending, did not change in monthly terms in November, and the annual indicator deteriorated from -1.1% to -2.3%, remaining in negative territory for nine consecutive months. Among the key categories, spending growth was observed in the hospitality sector (+1.4%) and fuel purchases (+1.3%). At the same time, the largest decrease was recorded in spending on vehicle maintenance (-0.3%), the purchase of clothing and shoes (-1.0%), as well as durable goods (-0.2%).Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5920.Support levels: 0.5740, 0.5630.Platinum market analysisThis week, the XPT/USD pair showed diverse dynamics: starting with an increase in the area of 956.55, the quotes could not hold their positions and rolled back to 931.00, remaining under the influence of uncertainty about the upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System.The market expects that at the final meeting of the year, the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. However, the further trajectory of monetary policy raises questions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November, but inflation figures continue to rise. Thus, the consumer price index increased to 2.7%, and the producer price index recorded a third month of growth, reaching 3.0%, which exceeds the target values. Against this background, it is possible to suspend the easing cycle or significantly reduce its pace, which may limit the rate correction to one or two times a year. If, after the US Federal Reserve meeting, signals are heard about the suspension of the "dovish" exchange rate, this will put pressure on safe haven assets, including platinum. On the contrary, statements of readiness to continue lowering rates may help strengthen the position of metals against the dollar.Resistance levels: 968.75, 1000.00, 1031.25.Support levels: 926.70, 906.25, ...
EUR/USD: economists see a likely ECB rate cut in DecemberThe EUR/USD pair is trading with signs of corrective growth around 1.0574, which is facilitated by the weakening of the US dollar and support from positive data on the eurozone economy.The publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone for the third quarter is expected today at 12:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the quarterly indicator will remain at 0.4%, and the annual indicator will adjust to 0.9% against the previous 0.6%, which indicates the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Meanwhile, investors have already assessed the published statistics on retail sales, which decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than the predicted -0.4%. On an annualized basis, the decrease was 1.9%, which exceeded expectations of 1.7%, but still remains less significant compared to the previous 3.0%. The reduction of industrial orders in Germany to 1.5% in October after 4.2% earlier strengthened the arguments of supporters of the ECB's "dovish" rhetoric. A Reuters poll confirms experts' expectations: the cost of borrowing is likely to be reduced by 25 basis points at the December 12 meeting. Forecasts for 2024 suggest that the regulator will continue to adjust rates, reducing them by a total of 100 basis points next year.Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0740.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Australia's GDP growth rate was below market expectationsThe AUD/USD pair is trading in a sideways range, holding near the 0.6430 mark, due to weak economic statistics from Australia and a decline in the position of the US dollar. Despite the small activity, investors remain cautious when assessing the current data on the dynamics of the Australian economy.According to published data, in the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.5%. The annual rate also slowed from 1.0% to 0.8%, falling short of expectations of 1.1%. The indicators of foreign trade showed a more positive trend: exports increased from -4.7% to 3.6%, and imports moved into a positive zone, rising from -2.8% to 0.1%. The trade balance also improved, increasing from 4.532 billion to 5.938 billion Australian dollars. Although positive changes in exports may support the economy, the slowdown in GDP growth remains a key factor in the pressure on the Australian currency. Investors continue to assess the prospects for economic development, waiting for new signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and additional data that may affect the further dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6260.NZD/USD: the week ends with the weakening of the New Zealand currencyThe NZD/USD pair is correcting downwards, testing the 0.5855 mark, almost leveling out the results of the growth observed on Thursday. Market participants prefer to take profits on long positions before the publication of the November report on the US labor market, forecasts for which remain contradictory.Against the background of the lack of significant news from New Zealand, the main attention of traders was focused on data from China. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 50.2 to 50.0 points, while the same indicator in the NBS manufacturing sector rose slightly from 50.1 to 50.3 points. The Caixin indicator, on the contrary, showed a steady increase from 50.3 to 51.5 points, significantly exceeding the projected 50.5 points, which indicates an improvement in conditions for the manufacturing sector.Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the New Zealand real estate market. Over the next two years, housing construction volumes could increase by 5.0%, helped by a 125 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. At the same time, according to a Reuters poll conducted at the end of November, average rent growth will continue to outpace inflation, which will increase pressure on family budgets as house prices have doubled over the past seven years. Experts predict that in 2025 and 2026, the value of real estate will grow by 5.1% annually, while in 2023 a decrease of 0.3% was recorded. The Reserve Bank had previously assumed a similar recovery, forecasting a 4.0% price increase in 2025 and almost 7.0% in 2026.Resistance levels: 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975.Support levels: 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750.USD/CAD: the former head of the Bank of Canada announced the beginning of a recessionThe USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate increase, aiming to gain a foothold above the 1.4030 level. Trading activity remains subdued, as market participants are waiting for the release of important employment statistics in the United States and Canada, which may set the direction for further dynamics.At a recent webinar organized by Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, former head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said that the country is showing signs of a technical recession. According to him, despite the absence of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth, a significant increase in migration to Canada has changed the structure of consumption: the growing demand for basic goods contrasts with the reduction in spending by local residents, who are faced with a 30 percent increase in the cost of living amid the recent inflationary surge. Confirming Poloz's words, Statistics Canada last week reported that GDP per capita fell by 0.4% over the last quarter, extending a series of cuts to six in a row. Economists point to the weakness of domestic markets and the high burden on the budget of the population, which confirms the vulnerability of the country's economy.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, ...
EUR/USD: investors' attention is focused on the crisis in FranceThe EUR/USD pair is correcting near the 1.0509 mark, demonstrating a decrease in interest in the US dollar, but at the same time not receiving sufficient support from the macroeconomic data of the eurozone.According to forecasts, the November index of business activity in the Spanish services sector will decrease from 54.9 points to 53.6 points, in Italy from 52.4 points to 51.1 points, in France from 48.1 points to 44.8 points, and in Germany from 51.6 points to 49.4 points. These data indicate a slowdown in economic activity even against the background of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) aimed at supporting businesses and reducing debt pressure. The combined indicator of business activity in the eurozone is likely to decrease from 51.6 points to 49.2 points, which will take it out of the positive zone for the first time since the beginning of the year.Investors' attention is also focused on the political situation in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier, bypassing parliament, is promoting a bill providing for an increase in the tax burden on businesses by $ 62.8 billion and a reduction in government spending by $ 42.0 billion in order to reduce the budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP. This step caused sharp dissatisfaction with the opposition, which initiated the procedure for passing a vote of no confidence in the government. The escalating crisis risks exacerbating the already difficult situation of the national economy, which continues to struggle with high inflationary pressures.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0330.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0680.NZD/USD: construction statistics brought down NZD positionsThe NZD/USD pair started the week with negative dynamics, holding around 0.5860 after the publication of fresh macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.According to the report, in October, the number of construction permits issued fell by 5.2%, which is significantly worse than the forecast of 1.7%. The previous value was also revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. Such data reinforce concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and a possible negative impact on gross domestic product (GDP). In the current situation, experts predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider options for lowering interest rates to stimulate business activity, which puts pressure on the national currency. However, there are also positive signals: trading conditions improved from 2.1% to 2.4% in the third quarter, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations at 1.8%. This factor can provide short-term support to the New Zealand dollar, deterring it from a deeper decline until additional catalysts appear on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.6120, 0.6220.Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5800, 0.5600.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of decline, the XAG/USD pair is showing recovery and is holding at 31.06 during trading in the Asian session. However, there is no confident upward momentum yet.One of the main limiting factors remains the decline in interest in silver, both in the form of contracts and in the form of physical metal, which is in demand in industry. According to the Silver Institute, in 2024, the volume of investments in this asset may decrease by 15.0%, reaching only $ 208.0 million. The decline is particularly noticeable in the US market, where sales of investment bars and coins fell by 40.0%, which is the lowest since 2019. The reason for this trend may be both a reduction in the financial capabilities of market participants and their preference for more active instruments such as gold or oil. Nevertheless, certain positive trends persist. In particular, industrial demand for silver will increase by 7.0% this year, and investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by this metal will grow by 8.0%. This growth will be the first improvement since 2020, indicating a recovery in interest from long-term investors and the industrial sector.Resistance levels: 31.40, 33.00.Support levels: 30.50, 28.70.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices continue to move towards the important 70.00 mark, supporting the optimistic mood in the global commodity markets. The weakening of the US dollar has become a key driver of the current positive dynamics, which helps attract investors to energy purchases.The focus of market participants is on the meeting of OPEC+ ministers scheduled for Thursday at 12:00 (GMT+2). It is expected that the cartel members will again be unable to come to an agreement on increasing oil production, postponing this decision for the third time in a row for a maximum period of three months. The previous adjustment of production volumes, scheduled for December and amounting to 180.0 thousand barrels per day, was also postponed from October. This uncertainty is related to the variability in the forecast of global demand for hydrocarbons, especially against the background of slowing economic growth in key consumer countries. Special attention is paid to China, where economic difficulties have been observed since the beginning of autumn, but their mitigation has been accompanied by the country's active transition to electric transport, which reduces oil consumption. This process, although gradual, is already having an impact on the market. According to Reuters analysts, Chinese oil companies predict a further decline in demand for raw materials, as electric vehicles continue to displace gasoline-powered vehicles.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.10.Support levels: 68.60, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
