Trading signals and online forecasts NZD/USD

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Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Crude Oil for Wednesday, August 2
EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Crude Oil for Wednesday, August 2 EUR/USD: the euro is under strain due to volatile macroeconomic indicatorsDuring the Asian trading session, EUR/USD quotes are testing the level of 1.0985.The negative trend of the euro, which has the potential to become a long-term trend, is formed against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic environment. In particular, for the second quarter, Italy's GDP decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value of 0.6%, which led to a decline in the annual indicator from 1.9% to 0.6%. This affected the overall assessment of the EU economy, with growth slowing to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and from 1.1% to 0.6% year-on-year. July's gauge of business activity in the German manufacturing sector declined to 38.8 points from 40.6 points, although the country's unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7% on the back of a 4.0k drop in the number of unemployed compared to the previous reading of 30.0k.The US dollar is experiencing a correction at 101.900 in USD Index despite a weak JOLTS labor market report: open job openings fell to 9.582 million in June from the revised May figure of 9.616 million, although analysts had forecast a rise to 9.610 million. The July ISM manufacturing activity index rose to 46.4 points from 46.0 points, falling short of the expected 46.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.1068, 1.1230.Support levels: 1.0920, 1.0740.NZD/USD: quarterly reports on the pairIn this review we will consider the medium-term investment prospects of the NZD/USD trading instrument.Right now, the fundamental situation is such that the New Zealand dollar looks much more vulnerable compared to the US dollar, although the latter continues to remain in the vicinity of the yearly lows at 102,000 points on the USD Index.In the middle of the previous month, the New Zealand Central Bank decided to keep the interest rate at 5.50%. The main factor behind this decision was a slight slowdown in inflation, which, according to the quarterly report, led to a downgrade to the current 6.0% from the previous 6.7%. However, the monetary authorities do not rule out the possibility of increasing monetary stimulus if the negative trend continues. A break in hawkish measures will certainly have a favorable impact on the national economy, which is in recession and has been showing a loss for two consecutive quarters. One of the main reasons for this dynamic remains the high unemployment rate, which, according to the latest report, increased to 3.6% from the previous 3.4%. At the same time, the index of wage changes showed a gain of only 1.1%, which led to a correction of the annual rate from 4.5% to 4.3%.Gold pricesAfter the latest moves by the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, the precious metal is aiming for a June low, approaching the 1905.00 level.U.S. GDP for the second quarter, which was released last week, beat analysts' forecasts, coming in at 2.4% instead of the expected 1.8%, versus 2.0% in the previous quarter. In addition, the interest rate increase by 25 basis points to 5.50% actively supports the US dollar, which is likely to continue to weigh on gold if the US economy shows a sustained recovery.The medium-term trend is still downward: in July prices reached the key resistance level in the range of 1984.00-1975.00, but failed to overcome it, which makes short positions with a target in zone 2 (1914.00-1906.00) relevant. If the resistance level of 1984.00-1975.00 can be broken upwards and consolidate above this area, the medium-term trend will switch to an uptrend, with the target at the buy level in the range of 2067.00-2058.00.Resistance levels: 1980.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1905.00, 1810.00.Crude Oil Market AnalysisThe cost of North American WTI crude oil is experiencing a correction within an uptrend, having risen to the level of 81.80. This comes amid the decision of OPEC+ countries to voluntarily reduce production from May to the end of the year by a total volume of about 1.66 million barrels per day, including the share of Russia, which began to reduce production by 500.0 thousand barrels per day since March. The alliance's move was called a precautionary measure to maintain market stability.In turn, Bloomberg analysts predict strengthening of oil supply deficit, which may reach 1.2 million tons in the second half of the year. Against this background, Russian Urals crude is becoming increasingly attractive to buyers, setting a new historical record with a price of 64.3 dollars per barrel. This exceeds the $60.0 ceiling set by European and Australian regulators, as well as the G7 countries after the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine began.Support levels: 80.10, 76.00.Resistance levels: 83.30, ...
Forex analysis and forecast for NZD/USD for today, August 1, 2023
NZD/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for NZD/USD for today, August 1, 2023 Weak macroeconomic statistics of New Zealand had a negative impact on the dynamics of NZD/USD, and on Tuesday the pair traded near the level of 0.6200.The National Statistics Service of New Zealand released a report on the real estate market, according to which, in June, the number of building permits amounted to 9.888 thousand, which is 20% lower than the same period last year. In quarterly terms, the decline amounted to 2.3%. A 0.8% rise in the business activity index in July didn't help the local dollar.The U.S. dollar index is trading near 101.700. Today will see the release of the job openings report, which is expected to fall from 9.824mn to 9.610mn, as well as the ISM manufacturing index. Here analysts forecast a rise from 46.0p to 46.8p.Technical analysis for NZD/USDNZD/USD on the Daily chart is in a global downward corridor with the boundaries of 0.6370-0.5950.The Alligator averages have not yet turned to either side, but the awesome oscillator has moved into the negative area and is forming bearish bars, signaling the priority of selling.After consolidation below 0.6150 we consider short positions with take profit at 0.6030. Stop-loss is set at 0.6220.For entry into purchases we should wait for a breakthrough of resistance at 0.6250. For "bulls" the nearest target will be 0.6380. Protective stop is placed at ...
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, July 25
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, July 25 EUR/USD: European currency meets obstacles for active growthDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair shows a slight growth, testing the 1.1080 mark, and seeks to regain lost ground after an active decline at the start of the week.The negative trend is unfolding against the backdrop of business activity statistics for July, published yesterday: the index in the manufacturing sector in France fell to 44.5 points from 46.0 points earlier, in Germany - to 38.8 points, which is lower than the previous figure of 40.6 points, and the overall EU indicator fell to 42.7 points compared to 43.4 points in the previous period. The services index in France fell to 47.4 points from 48.0 points, while in Germany it slipped to 52.0 points from 54.1 points. The composite indicator for the region was adjusted from 52.0 points to 51.1 points, which may indicate a potential deepening of the negative trend of EUR/USD quotes.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1280.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0830.GBP/USD: the pair expects new stimuli for the quotes movementThe GBP/USD pair shows instability during the trades, remaining near the level of 1.2830. The U.S. currency continues to strengthen actively, receiving support from expectations of tightening of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve at the meeting, the results of which will be known tomorrow.Some experts believe that the July interest rate hike may end the current long cycle of monetary tightening. The regulator is likely to take a wait-and-see stance, after which it may start reducing the cost of lending in early 2024, which will depend on the specific economic situation. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is scheduled to meet next week. The British regulator is also expected to adjust the rate by 25 basis points, given the pressure from persistent inflation in the country. Despite the adjustment in the UK consumer price index, experts at EY Item Club believe that the speed of the slowdown going forward will not be as fast as originally anticipated due to persistently high food and energy prices. The average inflation rate is projected to reach 7.6% this year, up from the April forecast of 6.2%, increasing pressure on household budgets. On the other hand, annual wage growth is not expected to exceed price growth until 2025.Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2963, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2747, 1.2690, 1.2600.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency is in correctionThe NZD/USD pair is demonstrating an unstable uptrend, continuing the bullish dynamics that occurred at the beginning of this week. The trading instrument is testing the 0.6210 peak for the possibility of an upward breakout, seeking support in macroeconomic data.However, fresh statistics from New Zealand, published yesterday, turned out to be negative. Specifically, June exports fell from $6.97 billion to $6.31 billion and imports fell from $6.91 billion to $6.30 billion, resulting in a decrease in the trade deficit from $52.0 million to $9.0 million on a month-on-month basis. On a year-on-year basis, the balance deficit narrowed moderately from -$17.12 billion in May to -$15.98 billion in June. Meanwhile, credit card spending increased from 3.4% to 5.0% in June, but this was well below the projected 9.9%.Resistance levels: 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6303, 0.6350.Support levels: 0.6183, 0.6155, 0.6131, 0.6100.Crude oil market overviewDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed movement, staying close to the 78.80 level and local peaks of April 25.Yesterday's positive trend was formed on the basis of expectations of increased demand for energy resources from the U.S. and China: for example, investors noted the growth of the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in July from 46.3 points to 49.0 points, which significantly exceeded the forecasts of analysts who expected the level of 46.4 points. Moreover, the strengthening of quotations is supported by the ongoing tension in Eastern Europe and restrictions on supplies of oil and oil products from Russia to the EU, as well as the decision of OPEC+ members to reduce quotas for the production of "black gold" by 1.6 million barrels per day from January 2024. This includes a reduction in production in Russia by 650.0 thousand barrels per day, in Nigeria - by 362.0 thousand barrels per day and in Angola - by 175.0 thousand barrels per day. Earlier, analysts from investment bank The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted record demand for fuel commodities in the second half of the year, which will lead to an increase in the price of Brent Crude Oil to 86.0 dollars per barrel.Resistance levels: 79.14, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, July 11
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, July 11 AUD/USD: weak statistics from the People's Republic of China put pressure on the AussieAUD/USD currency pair is trading with moderate growth, gaining back the positions lost earlier. The asset is holding near 0.6690 area developing a bullish trend, having gained support on the background of the published block of macroeconomic data from Australia. Thus, consumer confidence on the July index from Westpac rose to 2.7% from 0.2%, the National Bank of Australia increased the value of economic conditions for June to 9.0 points from 8.0 points, and business confidence to 0.0 points from -4.0 points.Meanwhile, experts are studying the statistics from the Celestial Empire, published the day before and became the main driver for strengthening the vector of "bears" in the instrument. Thus, consumer prices for June decreased by 0.2%, coinciding with the indicator in the previous month, and the annualized inflation rate fell to 0.0% to a gain of 0.2% in May. Manufacturers cut price tags on index goods to -5.4% from -4.6%, renewing the pace of contraction for 2015. China's inflation continues to show weak statistics, adding to fears among investors on the outlook for economic performance in the PRC, which occupies a key role in the region's trade and is also the largest consumer of industrial resource, including energy.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6661, 0.6622, 0.6594, 0.6550.USD/CAD: experts expect the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of Canada officialsDuring the morning trading USD/CAD is developing an uncertain decline, reaching 1.3260. Investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude due to the expectation of the release of key macroeconomic indicators.On Wednesday, July 12, market participants want to assess the June statistics on the dynamics of price growth in the U.S., which can largely determine the further vector of monetary stimulus of the Fed. The current assessment foresees a decline in inflation to 3.1% from 4.0% in the annual dynamics and an increase to 0.3% from 0.1% in the monthly dynamics. The core values, which does not take into account the cost of food products and energy costs, may undergo a correction to 5.0% from 5.3%. The U.S. currency continues to be pressured by the mixed report on the June employment market on July 7, according to which new jobs, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by 209.0 thousand, hitting the minimum of the last two and a half years, reducing analysts' forecasts of the advisability of continuing the "hawkish" trend of the financial department. In turn, the number of supporters in the opinion that after the meeting in July the regulator officials will raise the cost of borrowing by 0.25% exceeds the threshold of 90.0% of experts.Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3150, 1.3100.EUR/USD: upward dynamics in the pair still has potentialThe EUR/USD trading instrument is strengthening for the fourth day session in a row, having updated today the maximum value for May at 1.1026, however, being under pressure at the time of writing due to the release of weak economic sentiment statistics from ZEW.Thus, the decline in the indicator for July exceeded analysts' estimates, reaching -12.2 points, while the value for Germany reached -14.7 points. The main background of the publication shows the deterioration of business sentiment, because the regional economy continues to be under pressure from the ECB's hawkish vector of monetary parameters, which is only reinforced by the long course of interest rate adjustments in the fight against high inflation, which showed an acceleration of growth for June in Germany to 6.4% from 6.1%.Resistance levels: 1.1108, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.0925, 1.0864, 1.0800.NZD/USD: the results of the meeting of the RBNZ officials are expectedThe NZD/USD pair has been developing upward dynamics for the whole trading month of July. Earlier quotes of the asset reached the level of 0.6225, but the instrument failed to break upwards, being under the influence of weak Chinese statistics, which caused concern among analysts about the prospect of a decline in economic indicators in the future. Thus, the cost of manufactured goods fell to -5.4%, signaling the difficulty of selling products, and the consumer price index remained the same, reflecting weak domestic demand.Resistance levels: 0.6225, 0.6286, 0.6347.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6042, ...
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Friday, June 9
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Friday, June 9 EUR/USD: quarterly GDP statistics confirms the recessionDuring the Asian trading session the pair EUR/USD was demonstrating a mixed dynamics, consolidating around 1.0775, after an active growth the previous day.One of the main issues attracting the attention of investors is the publication of the euro area's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter. On an annualized basis, economic growth declined from 1.8% to 1.0%, instead of the expected 1.2%, and on a quarterly basis it declined by 0.1%. Given that this is the second consecutive contraction, it is technically possible to talk about the onset of a recession in the region. Despite weak macroeconomic statistics, the euro still added 0.8% on Thursday as part of a long-term uptrend, and the target is the range of April and May highs from 1.1078 to 1.1010. The strong support level is 1.0670 and if it exceeds this level, the quotes may continue to grow. In case it breaks down, there is a chance of going down to the trendline boundary at 1.0537, from which it is recommended to open long positions.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1078 and 1.1170.Support levels: 1.0670, 1.0537, 1.0338.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency may close the weekly trading upwards.At the moment the pair NZD/USD is showing mixed trading dynamics, stabilizing around the level of 0.6090. At the end of the week activity dropped off after the previous day's surge spurred by the release of U.S. data.For example, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 3 rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above market expectations of 235,000, with the figure reaching its highest level since October 2021. In contrast, the number of re-applications for the week ending May 26 fell from 1.794 million to 1.757 million, beating analysts' forecasts of 1.800 million. However, labor market conditions could affect the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision at the upcoming June 13-14 meeting. Currently, about 71.0% of analysts expect the rate to remain at 5.25%. However, experience with the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows that after some pause in the monetary tightening cycle, regulators may start to raise borrowing costs again.Resistance levels are at 0.6100, 0.6150, 0.6200 and 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6043, 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900.AUD/USD: RBA has assessed the potential of stabblesAt the moment, the pair AUD/USD is showing a moderate decline and is consolidating after the active growth observed on the previous day. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6700 to break down, retreating from the local highs reached on May 11. At the end of the week the pressure on quotations is given by the macroeconomic statistics from Australia and growing concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) praised the potential of stablcoins and acknowledged that they can significantly contribute to the modernization of the country's financial sector. However, for such instruments to function fully, regulatory mechanisms that encourage innovation and provide the necessary protection for investors must now be developed. The use of stablocoins in the domestic market is still limited, but officials believe their wider use is helping to make financial services more accessible.Resistance levels: 0.6717, 0.6750, 0.6795, 0.6816.Support levels: 0.6681, 0.6635, 0.6590, 0.6563.Crude Oil market reviewThe current price of North American light crude oil WTI is in a sideways trend phase at 70.95.The data on oil reserves in the U.S. confirms the local positive dynamics. After last week's sharp decline in inventories the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a correction of -1.710 million barrels compared to the expected increase of 1.500 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also reported a -0.451 million barrel decline, while analysts expected a 1.022 million barrel gain.Resistance levels: 73.80, 80.50.Support levels: 69.20, ...
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Monday, June 5
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Monday, June 5 EUR/USD: experts expect decline in business sentiment in the EUThe pair EUR/USD showed a decline, reaching the level of 1.0697, and a negative trend compared to its main competitors, including the U.S. dollar. This trend could intensify after the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, investors will pay attention to the Italian Service Business Activity Index, which is expected to decline from 57.6 to 56.5 points, while in France the index may drop from 54.6 to 52.8 points. While Germany is expected to increase from 56.0 to 57.8 points, it is not enough to have a significant impact on the composite index of service sector business activity across the EU and it may continue to decline from 56.2 to 55.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0759, 1.0920.Support levels: 1.0628, 1.0400.USD/CAD: USD is regaining lost groundThe pair USD/CAD during the Asian session is moderately rising after the active decline last week and is testing the level of 1.3440 in an attempt to break up, retreating from the local lows set on May 16.Technical factors are supporting the upward dynamic, while the main impulses for the U.S. currency growth are gradually weakening. The U.S. labor market report released on Friday pointed to a continued high level of tightness: the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, while the forecasted level was 3.5%. The number of new jobs created outside the agriculture sector increased by 339,000 in May, up from 294,000 last month, although analysts had expected 180,000. Average hourly earnings growth slowed from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 4.4% to 4.3% on an annual basis. These statistics put additional pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to further tighten monetary policy. Nevertheless, experts suppose with the probability of about 66% that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, which is scheduled for June 13-14.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.NZD/USD: pair pulled back from the peak of MayThe NZD/USD pair showed mixed trading dynamics, holding near the level of 0.6060. It deviated from the local highs set on May 25 as a result of the reaction to the publication of the May report on the U.S. labor market, which caused mixed feelings among traders.Let's remind that this data showed the increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector by 339.0 thousand after the previous growth of 294.0 thousand, while analysts expected the slowdown to 190.0 thousand. At the same time the unemployment rate went up from 3.4% to 3.7% while the forecast was 3.5%. In such a situation, it is unclear what steps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will take at the upcoming meeting scheduled for June 13-14. Earlier most experts were inclined to consider a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, but rising unemployment could force the regulator to suspend monetary policy tightening. Right now there is about a 66.0% chance that the Fed will leave rates at current levels.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6150, 0.6200 and 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6043, 0.5984, 0.5938 and 0.5900.GBP/USD: pound is affected by the contradictory sentimentGBP/USD is in a consolidation phase near the level of 1.2430, but there is an ongoing negative sentiment which formed on June 2 when the pound declined after its local highs set on May 16.According to a Reuters poll of British economists, most of them predict a 3.0% decline in average home prices in the country this year, while previously a 2.4% decline was expected. This is due to the ongoing cost of living crisis and the expected rise in interest rates, which will have a negative impact on consumers and the entire British economy. The slow decline in inflation is likely to stimulate an interest rate hike from 4.50% to 5.00% at the Bank of England meeting scheduled for June.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2390, 1.2350, 1.2307, ...
Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1 USD/JPY: Japan's financial authorities continue to test the digital currencyThe trading instrument USD/JPY is moderately declining, reinforcing the momentum of the "bears" since the beginning of the week. The asset is at 139.40, continuing to decline, while markets await the publication of US jobs market data by the end of the week.Meanwhile, the Japanese regulator reiterated its intention to continue testing the digital yen on the background of a positive test result in the second phase of the pilot project, which began last spring to this spring and showed a detailed analysis on the technology, allowing the use of maximum limits on the operation of the token. At the same time, the regulator's experts were conducting research on the timeframe for replacing traditional banking services with a transition to a new digital asset. As a reminder, starting June 1, Japan will implement a new set of rules to monitor the country's digital payments and transfers in order to track and detect criminal profits. So, from today, any financial institution that receives a cryptocurrency transaction in excess of $3,000 for processing will need to report details on the exchange company's client or the founder of the recipient.Resistance levels: 139.67, 140.21, 140.91, 141.50.Support levels: 138.90, 138.00, 137.50, 136.50.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency is approaching the low of NovemberThe NZD/USD currency instrument is trading with moderate losses, reaching the area of 0.6000 for further declines, moving towards the local low of November 10. The instrument is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of the PRC and New Zealand.Earlier published block of macroeconomic data reflected a downward correction in China's manufacturing sector business sentiment by the National Bureau of Statistics for May to 48.8 points from 49.2 points, with estimates of growth to 49.4 points, while the service sector declined to 54.5 points from the previous 56.4 points, beating the 50.7 point forecast. Business optimism from the RBNZ for May strengthened to -31.1 points from the previous -43.8 points, beating estimates of -43.4 points. A week earlier the financial authorities raised the cost of borrowing to the target level of 5.5%, after which they allowed the index to decline soon on the background of fixing stable economic indicators, and weakening inflation, which, in turn, continues to hold negative indicators. Minor support for the instrument was provided by the Chinese statistics. Thus, the Caixin business activity of the manufacturing sector for May increased to 50.9 points from 49.5 points, beating the neutral forecasts of experts, and the release of the May statistics on the labor market in the US is scheduled for Friday, the expectation of which keeps the attention of economists. The markets forecast a weaker dynamics of new vacancies in the agricultural sector down to 190.0 thousand from 253.0 thousand. Meanwhile, investors allow to see a slight change in the number of unemployed to 3.5% from 3.4%, which will be the first correction of the indicator in a long time.Resistance levels: 0.6043, 0.6100, 0.6150 and 0.6200.Support levels: 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900, 0.5850.GBP/USD: US mortgage rates continue to riseDuring the morning session the GBP/USD trading instrument shows mixed sentiment, testing the 1.2450 area and the local high of May 24. Pound intends to recoup the losses of the end of the previous week, but the upward dynamics is hindered by the strong position of the US dollar.So, the American currency again took the target to overcome the level of 104.000 on the USD Index. The increase in the cost of the threshold of the 30-year mortgage program to 6.91% from 6.69% triggered the decrease in the number of applications for the purchase of houses on the mortgage program of the index from 158.3 points to 154.4 points, which caused the pressure on the mortgage market index to 197.4 points from 205.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2100.Crude Oil market overviewAfter the asset declined two sessions in a row and renewed the local low of May 4, the price of WTI oil shows a correction at 68.57 in Thursday's trading, waiting for a new impetus to move.Wednesday's report showed an additional negative trend for oil. Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil reserves as of May 26, the value increased by 5,202 million barrels against the previous decrease of 6,790 million barrels. Today, on June 1, the market participants expect the previously announced statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which analysts forecast a decrease of 1.220 million barrels, which will continue the previous decline of 12.456 million barrels last week.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 72.50.Support levels: 68.04, 67.00, 65.74, ...
Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29 USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, ...
Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
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