Trading signals and online forecasts NZD/USD

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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver on Thursday, February 22
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver on Thursday, February 22 EUR/GBP: the euro is growing amid negative forecasts for the German economyDuring Asian trading, the EUR/GBP currency pair shows growth, heading towards overcoming the 0.8570 level.The euro received support from February data on consumer confidence in the European Union, which showed an improvement from -16.1 to -15.5 points, ahead of analysts' forecasts of -15.6 points. At the same time, the euro is being influenced by the downward revision of the German economic growth forecast. Experts now forecast German GDP growth of only 0.2% this year, instead of the previously expected 1.3%, due to weak external demand for German goods, geopolitical risks and high inflation. German inflation is expected to reach 2.8% this year, falling short of the ECB's 2% target. Today's publication of S&P Global business activity data for February attracts the attention of investors, and a slight improvement in indicators in the services and manufacturing sectors is predicted.Resistance levels: 0.8577, 0.8591, 0.8611, 0.8632.Support levels: 0.8562, 0.8546, 0.8519, 0.8500.NZD/USD: reassessment of the timing of the easing of the US Federal Reserve policyThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing significant growth, continuing to form a bullish trend that began on February 14. At the moment, the pair is trying to overcome the 0.6200 level, updating the highs recorded since January 16.The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is facilitated by the current weakness of the US dollar, which became apparent after the publication of the results of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The participants of the Federal Open Market Committee expressed concern about the risks of early interest rate cuts compared with the duration of tightened monetary policy. As a result, markets adjusted expectations for Fed policy easing in May and June, where the probability of a 25 basis point correction is estimated at 35%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.The positive trend for NZD/USD was not disrupted even by weak economic indicators from New Zealand, where exports fell from $5.85 billion to $4.93 billion in January, and imports fell from $6.22 billion to $5.91 billion, which led to an increase in the trade deficit from $368 million to $976 million in a month. New Zealand retail sales data for the fourth quarter of 2023 is also expected to be released this evening.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6060.AUD/USD: the market evaluates the results of the last sessions of the RBA and the US Federal ReserveThe AUD/USD currency pair is at 0.6580 and is aimed at further strengthening to the target of 0.6616.This week, the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were presented. During the meeting, the regulator expressed the opinion that before making a decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 4.35%, additional time and data analysis will be required, with special attention to achieving a stable rate of inflation reduction to the target level of 2.0%. Salary growth in the fourth quarter was in line with experts' forecasts, showing an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and reaching 4.2% on an annual basis, which was higher than the expected 4.1%. This may encourage the RBA to maintain a high level of interest rates for longer than expected by the market, although most analysts still believe that the bank will begin to ease monetary policy this fall.Resistance levels: 0.6616, 0.6675, 0.6727.Support levels: 0.6538, 0.6447.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD currency pair is experiencing a slight rise, approaching the level of 23.00. Market activity remains moderate, despite the abundance of economic data.Expectations of a soft monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve contribute to the support of silver. The analysis of the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts in May from the previously estimated 60% to the current 35%. The publication of the minutes of the January Fed meeting confirmed such sentiments, where FOMC members expressed concern about the rate of decline in inflation to the target level of 2%. There is an opinion that expectations for a decrease in inflation may not come true, which pushes the regulator to continue careful monitoring of the economic situation, and the risks are associated with an early reduction in rates rather than with a long period of their high level.Today, investors will also focus on the statistics of applications for unemployment benefits and on February business activity data from S&P Global, where a slight decrease in indices in the service and manufacturing sectors is expected.Resistance levels: 23.00, 23.32, 23.60, 23.83.Support levels: 22.70, 22.50, 22.21, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, gold, cryptocurrencies and oil for Monday, February 19
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, gold, cryptocurrencies and oil for Monday, February 19 NZD/USD: on the way to break through the 0.6160 markAfter the release of inspiring data on the state of the New Zealand economy, the NZD/USD currency pair is showing an uptrend, reaching 0.6150. The index of business activity in the service sector, which is compiled monthly by Business NZ based on surveys of managers of private sector enterprises, rose to 52.1 points in January, surpassing both initial forecasts and previous results, thereby indicating an increase in optimism among entrepreneurs. This phenomenon is also confirmed by the composite indicator, which reached the mark of 50.0 points, which is also higher than expectations and previous indicators.Market analysts are observing a stable uptrend, with key support near the 0.6050 level. During February, despite repeated attempts to break through this mark, the price headed up from 0.6050 to resistance at 0.6160. A breakthrough and steady consolidation above 0.6160 portend further growth with potential targets at 0.6205 and 0.6262 levels. If the opponents of growth maintain control over the 0.6160 mark, a decline to the key level of 0.6050 is possible, whose breakdown will indicate a change in the long-term downward trend.Resistance levels: 0.6160, 0.6205, 0.6262.Support levels: 0.6050, 0.5865.Gold price analysisGold is strengthening, continuing the trend that began in the middle of the previous week, when the value of the precious metal rebounded from the minimum values recorded on December 13. At the same time, the latest data from the United States, published on Friday, had little effect on its value, despite the fact that they provoked a revision of expectations about an imminent reduction in interest rates.The producer price index in the United States in January increased by 0.3% for the month and 0.9% for the year, exceeding analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy, also accelerated, showing an increase of 0.5% for the month and 2.0% for the year, which also turned out to be higher than forecasts. These data forced experts to reconsider their forecasts regarding the policy of the Federal Reserve System, now it is expected that the interest rate cut may be postponed until the summer. The probability of such a move in June is estimated at 69%, although some analysts do not rule out changes already at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 2030.00, 2039.21, 2050.00, 2065.00.Support levels: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29, 1972.85.Cryptocurrency market analysisSince the beginning of February, Bitcoin has significantly strengthened its position, aiming to steadily gain a foothold above the $52,000 level, with current trading around $52,400.The rise in the value of bitcoin is supported not only by an increase in investments in bitcoin ETFs, but also by the anticipation of halving expected in April. Analysts record record inflows of funds into cryptocurrency funds: if in the first week of February the volume of investments amounted to $ 1.1 billion, then the next week it was already $ 2.2 billion. The average daily volume of investments in bitcoin-related ETFs remains at around $500 million, with a special preference for American investors who become more active during trading in their market. The expected halving further contributes to the increase in value, as miners become more cautious in selling mined coins, which leads to a decrease in their supply on the market. Reports show a decrease in sales from miners from 800 BTC at the end of last year to less than 300 BTC at the beginning of 2024, while interest from ETF issuers is growing, exceeding 12 thousand coins.Resistance levels: 53125.00, 56250.00.Support levels: 50000.00, 48437.50, 46875.00.Oil market analysisLast week, WTI crude oil prices peaked at $ 78.61 per barrel, but today showed a slight correction to $ 78.16, remaining relatively stable amid reduced activity due to the celebration of Presidents' Day in the United States.The risks of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continue to support oil prices. Analysts from the Institute of International Finance in Washington suggest that the forces of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement and Iran may join the conflict, which could lead to a slowdown in global GDP growth to 2.4% and a decrease in world trade to 1.6%. Tensions in the Red Sea region are also contributing to instability, especially after reports of an attack on a British oil tanker en route to India by the Yemeni Ansarullah movement. These events highlight maritime safety issues, forcing exporters to look for alternative shipping routes and thereby increasing the cost of transporting raw materials.Resistance levels: 78.61, 83.50.Support levels: 75.14, 72.11, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16
GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16 NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level upThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policyIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recessionThe GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.Crude Oil market analysisBrent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USDX on Friday, February 9th
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USDX on Friday, February 9th NZD/USD: the New Zealand dollar is rising at the end of the weekThe NZD/USD currency pair is actively strengthening, updating peaks since February 2 and checking the possibility of a breakout through 0.6120. The fundamental background of the market remains stable. The US dollar was supported by recent statements by members of the Federal Reserve System, including Jerome Powell, who indicated a preference for a more cautious approach to raising the cost of loans. This reduces the probability of an interest rate cut by 25 basis points in March to less than 20%, shifting the focus to the May meeting of the regulator.Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar came under pressure after Chinese inflation data for January was published: the annual consumer price index fell by 0.8% after the previous reading of -0.3%, which turned out to be worse than the expected -0.5%. The monthly consumer price index rose 0.3%, accelerating from 0.1%.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6155, 0.6192, 0.6221.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000.AUD/USD: pullback after takeoff balanced the gains of the session on TuesdayThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing mixed emotions at the auction, not exceeding the critical mark of 0.6500. The previous day recorded a significant drop in the Australian dollar, effectively canceling the growth gains recorded on Tuesday after the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).As expected, the RBA left the key rate at 4.35%, while in a statement stressing the expectation of a moderate decrease in inflation to the upper limits of the target range by 2025. This indicates a cautious approach to changing monetary policy, although the bank will continue to monitor global economic conditions. The further weakening of the Australian dollar was provoked by domestic economic statistics: the index of manufacturing activity from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) for December showed a decline. The Australian currency is also under pressure from data on consumer inflation in China, which slowed more than expected in January, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand and possible consequences for Australian exports of raw materials.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6543, 0.6569, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6480, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6356.USD/JPY: January bank lending growth in Japan was 3.1%In the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair shows moderate growth, stabilizing near the level of 149.40 and reaching new peaks since November 27.Current statistics from Japan indicate the difficulties faced by the country's economy: the index tracking consumer spending dropped from 51.8 to 50.2 points in January amid the ongoing onslaught on household financial well-being. This is confirmed by the correction of the household expenditure index in December from -1.0% to -0.9% on a monthly basis and from -2.9% to -2.5% on an annual basis. In parallel, the volume of bank lending in January increased from 3.0% to 3.1%. However, the country's balance of payments for December, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, showed a decrease from 1925.6 billion yen to 744.3 billion yen, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations of 1018.9 billion yen.Resistance levels: 150.30, 151.80.Support levels: 147.90, 145.90.USDX: the chance of a US rate cut in March is 20%, according to analystsToday, during the Asian session, the US dollar stabilized at 104.00 in the USDX index after it restored the highs on November 14 at 104.40, aiming to end the week with a slight increase.The strengthening of the dollar was provoked by the statements of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. He stressed the need to wait for further evidence of a steady decrease in inflation before deciding to lower interest rates, which forced analysts to reassess expectations and reduce the likelihood of monetary policy easing to 20% in March and to 60% in May.The market's attention was focused on the latest data on the state of the US labor market, released the day before. According to these data, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 227.0 thousand to 218.0 thousand for the week ended February 2, and the number of repeated applications for the week ended January 26 decreased from 1.894 million to 1.871 million, which supported the dollar. However, by the end of the day, the Bulls had lost most of their gains. Now investors are waiting for data on consumer inflation in the United States, which will be published on Tuesday at 15:30 GMT+2.Resistance levels: 104.24, 104.70, 105.20, 105.82.Support levels: 103.60, 103.00, 102.45, ...

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Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Dollar falls, losing support from US government bonds The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
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