NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, ...
During the Asian session on January 15, NZD/USD tends to stay above the 0.5600 mark, receiving moderate support from statistics on the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) business confidence index. In the fourth quarter, the indicator increased by 16.0% after the previous decrease of -1.0%.An additional growth factor for the New Zealand currency was data on the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits issued increased by 5.3%, recovering from a decrease of 5.2% in the previous month. China's exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year after rising by 6.7%, exceeding the forecasted 7.3%, while imports increased by 1.0%, which also exceeded expectations. Against this background, China's trade surplus increased from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion in December, which is higher than the projected $99.8 billion.The signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between New Zealand and the UAE was also a significant event. This agreement is aimed at expanding trade and investment between the two countries, with a projected growth of up to 5.0 billion dollars by 2032.The pressure on the US dollar yesterday was exerted by data on industrial inflation, which caused a revision of expectations for the Fed rate. In December, the annual production price index rose to 3.3% from 3.0% in November, but was lower than the projected 3.4%. The monthly figure dropped to 0.2%, which is worse than expected at 0.3%.Today, investors' attention is focused on December data on inflation in the United States, where it is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base index is projected to remain at 3.3%.On the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator shows sideways dynamics with a wide price range corresponding to the current market activity. The MACD and Stochastic give a steady buy signal, supporting bullish sentiment.The formation of long positions is recommended after the breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 0.5607 with a target of 0.5700 and a stop loss at 0.5571.A pullback from the 0.5607 level downwards, followed by a breakdown of the 0.5571 support, can serve as a signal for sales. The target will be 0.5511. We will place the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: the pair is moving within the 1.0350–1.0000 channelThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair are in the correction phase, trading around the 1.0305 mark against the background of the weakening of the US currency. After a poor start to the year, the euro is regaining its position, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, key eurozone countries continue to provide information on inflation. In December, the consumer price index in France was 1.3%, remaining at the level of the previous month and coinciding with analysts' expectations. In Spain, inflation accelerated to 2.8% from the previous 2.4%. The consolidated indicator for the eurozone is projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month and reach 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the November level of 2.2%. At the same time, the base index, which excludes the cost of food and energy resources, is likely to be fixed at 0.5%. Increased inflationary pressures may adjust the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), forcing it to reconsider plans to lower interest rates or slow down the pace of their reduction.Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0030.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0530.NZD/USD: New Zealand and the UAE have signed a partnership agreementThe New Zealand dollar is aiming to stay above the 0.5600 level during Asian trading on January 15. The national currency is supported by statistics on the business confidence index provided by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). According to the report, the indicator for the fourth quarter increased by 16.0%, offsetting the previous decrease by -1.0%.Earlier, the strengthening of the New Zealand currency was driven by positive data from the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits in New Zealand increased by 5.3%, which fully offset the 5.2% decrease a month earlier. Meanwhile, exports from China grew by 10.7% year-on-year after the previous growth of 6.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of 7.3%. Imports increased by 1.0% after falling by 3.9%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion, against expectations of $99.8 billion.In addition, representatives of New Zealand and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement aimed at increasing trade and investment flows. According to forecasts, the deal will allow to reach a trading volume of 5.0 billion dollars by 2032, providing an annual average of 1.5 billion dollars. At the same time, in the first nine months of last year, the non-oil trade turnover between the two countries amounted to 642.0 million dollars, which is 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USDX: dollar loses ground ahead of inflation reportThe US dollar index (USDX) shows mixed sentiment, being near the 109.00 mark and testing it for a breakdown down. Yesterday, the index showed a moderate decline, continuing to adjust from the highs reached earlier in the week. The main driver of the "bearish" dynamics was weak statistics from the United States, which increased doubts about today's inflation data and lowered expectations of new changes in the Fed's monetary policy in 2025. In particular, the producer price index for the month fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, although it was predicted to remain at the same level, and year-on-year the indicator increased from 3.0% to 3.3%, but was lower than the expected 3.5%. At the same time, the base value decreased to 0.0% from the previous 0.2%, maintaining the annual dynamics at 3.5%.Forecasts for consumer inflation suggest that the monthly rate will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base value is likely to remain between 0.3% and 3.3%. Such data may signal a slowdown in the pace of the Fed's dovish policy. Central forecasts with a 97.3% probability assume that the interest rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, especially given Donald Trump's policy of reforming import duties, reducing the tax burden and tightening immigration rules, which may increase inflationary pressures.In addition, the monthly economic review of the US Federal Reserve "Beige Book" will be released today at 21:00 (GMT+2). The document covers 12 federal districts, providing up-to-date information on the state of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other sectors of the economy.Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.97, 110.40, 111.00.Support levels: 109.00, 108.50, 108.00, 107.50.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move within the framework of the local uptrend, remaining above $ 79.0 per barrel during the Asian session. The market is gradually recovering, but participants remain concerned about the possible consequences of new US sanctions that could affect Russian oil supplies to China and India, as well as the overall supply level on the global energy market.The quotes support the latest forecasts of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), according to which global oil production could reach 104.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 105.89 million barrels in 2026. At the same time, global demand is expected to decrease to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and to 105.15 million in 2026, which will create an oversupply of 260 thousand barrels and 740 thousand barrels, respectively. This will be in contrast to the deficit of 170,000 barrels recorded in 2024. According to experts, the main increase in production is expected in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.Support levels: 78.30, 74.80.Resistance levels: 80.70, ...
GBP/USD: british 10-year bonds have shown peak yields since 2008The GBP/USD pair continues to remain in the correction phase, trading around the 1.2294 mark. This dynamic is due to the stable exchange rate of the US dollar and the sell-off in the market of British debt instruments. Investors are concerned about the growth of government debt and the consequences of the first decisions of the new US President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20.The yield on 30-year UK bonds reached a record high of 5.455% in the last 26 years, while 10-year bonds rose to 4.921%. Despite these figures, the Ministry of Finance of the country does not see the need to take emergency measures. In 2025, it is planned to issue government bonds worth about 300 billion pounds, which, according to the authorities, can normalize the situation on the capital market. Rising yields can stimulate investor activity, and one of the possible steps to stabilize will be a short-term increase in the key rate, which will also support the fight against inflation.Meanwhile, the US currency is strengthening, the USDX index rose to the level of 109.0 points. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants expect the publication of data on employment in the US non-agricultural sector. 154 thousand jobs are projected to be created, compared to 227 thousand in November. The average hourly wage is likely to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. If the forecasts are confirmed, this could be a weighty argument for the Fed in favor of slowing down monetary policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 93.1% of investors are confident in maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. In addition, the published minutes of the Fed meeting indicate increased uncertainty about the economic course before the second term of Donald Trump. The regulator also noted the risks of accelerating inflation if the president's foreign trade and migration policies are fully implemented.Support levels: 1.2230, 1.2000.Resistance levels: 1.2380, 1.2610.USD/CHF: correction of the franc against the background of strengthening the position of the US currencyThe USD/CHF pair maintains a corrective trend near the level of 0.9125, demonstrating readiness for further growth. During the Asian session, the Swiss franc weakened slightly in the pair, which is explained by a decrease in market volatility and the strengthening of the US currency.The market is focused on the latest macroeconomic data from Switzerland. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index decreased by 0.1%, reaching 106.9 points, while in annual terms, the indicator slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%. The average annual inflation rate for 2024 was 1.1%, which corresponds to the central part of the target range of 0.0–2.0% set by the Swiss National Bank. These indicators may support the regulator's decision to continue its soft monetary policy in 2025. The bank plans to reduce the borrowing rate to 0.25%, and the head of the regulator Martin Schlegel admits the possibility of introducing negative rates. However, such measures are not yet on the priority agenda.Support levels: 0.9090, 0.8960.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9270.USD/CAD: the expectation of data on the US and Canadian labor markets sets the tone for tradingThe US dollar is showing moderate strengthening in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, reaching the level of 1.4410. The upward momentum continues, but the pair remains under pressure from bearish sentiment after a sharp decline on Monday, January 6. Market participants are still showing restraint, awaiting the publication of employment data in the United States and Canada, which is scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2).Economists predict a decrease in job growth in Canada from 50.5 thousand to 25.0 thousand. The average hourly wage is likely to remain at 3.9%, and the unemployment rate may rise to 6.9% from 6.8%. Additionally, investors will pay attention to statistics on construction permits: an increase of 1.8% is expected in November after a decrease of 3.1% a month earlier.On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down after the election of a new leader of the Liberal Party. Against this background, analysts are discussing the possible impact of political instability on the rate of the Bank of Canada. According to Bank of America experts, if, as CBC News polls show, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Pouillevre strengthens its position and wins a majority in the House of Commons, this will lead to a change in the political vector and increased fiscal discipline.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.NZD/USD: holding positions at the minimum levels of October 2022The New Zealand dollar is showing a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.5590 mark and the October 2022 levels, which were updated the day before. The pair is preparing to end the week with a slight correction related to the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations for the publication of data on employment in the non-agricultural sector, scheduled for today at 15:30 (GMT+2).In the absence of significant statistics from New Zealand, investors' attention is focused on China's inflation figures. In December, the consumer price index fell to 0.1% year-on-year, and showed zero monthly dynamics after falling 0.6% earlier. These data were in line with analysts' forecasts, but indicate a decline in business activity in the country. This situation forces the People's Bank of China to consider additional stimulus measures to support the economy. In addition, the situation is complicated by rumors about possible new import duties that the US republican administration may impose. This creates additional obstacles to the recovery of Chinese economic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
