On Friday, the British currency fell against the dollar to the support level of 1.1725 and reached the lowest value since the end of August.
Strong retail sales figures in the US provided the US currency with a lead against other assets. Even despite the strong fall at the end of last week, the pound/dollar pair remains in the range of the last three and a half months. The British currency, in general, retains its positions against the dollar, and it is still difficult to predict a confident downtrend. UK macroeconomic data provide stable demand for the pound, as market participants are waiting for the reduction of the quantitative easing program by the Bank of England. This week, the US and UK regulators will hold meetings, so the volatility of quotations may increase sharply. In both cases, market participants are waiting for important statements from regulators about changes in monetary policy. Both the Fed and the Bank of England may announce a reduction in the volume of purchases of securities from the end of the year. In both cases, this is embedded to some extent in current prices, and the reluctance of Central Banks to announce specific measures may lead to a fall in the exchange rate of the corresponding currency. Conversely, if the Bank of England or the Fed emphasize their maximum commitment to tightening policy as soon as possible, currency quotes may rise.
The forecast assumes a corrective strengthening of the pound/dollar exchange rate to the levels of 1.1750, 1.1775 and 1.1800.