At the end of the last week, almost all major currencies showed a decline. The Australian dollar showed the largest decline against the US dollar (-0.79%). A smaller drop was recorded by the New Zealand dollar (-0.62%), the British pound (-0.39%), the Canadian dollar (-0.24%), the Japanese yen (-0.22%) and the euro (-0.19%). Only the Swiss franc grew (+0.04%).
On Monday, the US dollar fell significantly against a basket of other currencies, as investors ' attention turned to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The euro rose significantly against the US dollar, despite the data on Germany. The IFO business climate index unexpectedly fell in July due to ongoing concerns about the supply chain and an increase in the number of coronavirus infections. The pound has risen strongly against the dollar, as the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the UK has decreased.
On Tuesday, the US dollar fell moderately against a basket of major currencies, as investors refrained from making large bets ahead of the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The dollar as a whole rose for more than a month on expectations that as the economic recovery gains momentum, the Fed will begin to reduce its monetary support. According to positioning data, last week, short-term traders became net buyers of the dollar for the first time since March 2020. As for domestic data, consumer confidence in the United States reached a 17-month high in July, which indicates that the economy maintained a high growth rate at the beginning of the third quarter. Continued fiscal support and better access to COVID-19 vaccines prompted the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday to update its forecasts for the United States and other rich countries, while lowering its estimates for a number of developing countries. In general, the IMF maintained its forecast of global economic growth at 6% for 2021.
On Wednesday, the US dollar fell slightly, reacting to the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The central bank left the range of interest rates on federal funds between 0.00% and 0.25%, as expected. The Fed made it clear that the economy has shown progress in meeting the employment and inflation targets set by the central bank. In addition, the regulator hinted at the possibility of curtailing asset purchases later this year. Since the end of last year, the Fed has stated that it will continue monthly bond purchases worth $ 120 billion until the economy shows "further significant progress" in achieving the central bank's goals: low unemployment and annual inflation of 2.0%. On Wednesday, the Fed noted that there is progress in this direction, and also announced its intention to continue to assess the degree of progress in the framework of further meetings. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell said that monetary policy should remain soft until the recovery is complete.
On Thursday, the US dollar fell to a one-month low after the US Federal Reserve's assurances that an interest rate hike is not expected in the near future. This signal gave a significant boost to most other currencies, from the Australian dollar to the Chinese yuan. China's efforts to mitigate the unrest in the stock market caused by its strict regulatory measures in some sectors also helped: the yuan rose for the second day in a row, and reached a one-week high against the US dollar. The US dollar, which has been actively rising since the Fed's June meeting, has recently lost its momentum, and the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks that there is still "a long way to go" before raising rates, were enough to lower the currency even lower. The movement of the dollar allowed the euro to rise to a two-week peak. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which depend on global and Chinese economic growth, continued the growth recorded on Wednesday, although the growth of the Australian dollar was limited by concerns that the extension of the COVID-19 quarantine in Sydney will negatively affect the national economy.
The US dollar rose moderately on Friday as upbeat economic data helped reverse some of the losses suffered earlier this week when dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve halted the US currency's monthly rally. The dollar also strengthened after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the Fed should start reducing monthly bond purchases this fall and reduce them "quite quickly" so that the program ends in the first months of 2022, and to pave the way for a rate hike in 2022, if necessary, the dollar found some support after data showed that US consumer spending in June rose more than expected, as vaccination against COVID-19 increased demand for travel and leisure services, although in part this increase reflected higher prices, and annual inflation accelerated further above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar, but approached a one-month high after data showed that the euro zone economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, emerging from a recession caused by the pandemic, while inflation in July exceeded the ECB's target of 2%.