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EUR/USD Analysis 17-Mar-21

U.S. retail sales fell 3% in February to $ 562 billion. This value followed the January increase of 7.6% and was worse than market expectations, which suggested a decrease of 0.5%. Total sales for the period from December to February increased by 6% compared to the same period last year. Markets were expecting a correction after the strong gain in January, and almost did not react to the fall.

Consumer inflation in the euro area strengthened sharply in January and February, and is likely to rise in the coming months. This is mainly due to temporary factors, which the European regulator urges not to pay attention to. Core inflation remains subdued due to weak demand and excess spare resources in the economy. Nevertheless, the euro is declining, which is typical of periods of rising inflation, when an increase in the interest rate is predicted. The ECB notes that domestic price pressures will remain muted due to weak demand and reduced wage growth, and does not plan to change the rate in the coming years.

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Forecast for cryptocurrencies BTC, ETH and XRP for today, May 10, 2021
Bitcoin rose in price to around $58,300. Ethereum reached the level of $3,900, and the price of XRP declined to the support of $1.53. The total capitalization of the digital currency market was $2.43 trillion.On Sunday, the quotes of the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization broke through the level of $3,900 and came close to the landmark mark of 4,000. According to CoinGecko, the exchange rate reached a new historical high of 3990. Bitcoin's dominance decreased to 42.9%, while ethereum's share exceeded 18%. Analysts of the cryptocurrency market have noticed that the volume of Ethereum on exchange wallets has been declining since August 2020, reducing the supply of the asset due to the growing demand of US institutional investors. The trend is expected to continue, and the price of Ethereum will continue to rise. Analysts at Fundstrat predicted the growth of the Ethereum exchange rate to levels above $10,000 in 2021, and experts at the Kraken exchange allowed the cryptocurrency's value to rise to 15,000.Asset management company VanEck has filed a new application for a traded exchange-traded fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This time, it is proposed to launch the fund on Ethereum. VanEck has already submitted several applications to the SEC to launch cryptocurrency ETFs, but so far none of them have been approved. At the end of last year, the company applied for a third time to launch a bitcoin ETF, but the regulator postponed the decision until June 17. If the application for opening an exchange-traded fund is approved, a significant influx of investment from traders can greatly increase the Ethereum exchange rate. Recently, the head of the SEC was Gary Gensler, who is positive about digital assets. According to forecasts, it can help accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States. Signals for trading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP In the forecast, the price of Bitcoin is expected to decline to the levels of 58,000, 57,500 and 57,000 Dollars. Ethereum will decline to the levels of 3875, 3850 and 3800 Dollars, and XRP - to the price values of 1.52, 1.50 and 1.47 Dollars.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Forex forecast of WTI oil for today May 10, 2021
WTI oil fell back in price in the second half of last week. On Friday, the quotes fell against the background of the difficult situation with the coronavirus in India to the level of 64.75 Dollars per barrel.Despite the drop, oil ended the week higher. A strong recovery in demand in the second half of the year, combined with good production discipline on the part of OPEC+, will lead to a significant reduction in supply and support oil prices. At the same time, the near-term demand outlook is being pressured by the difficult situation in India. The country has recorded a record daily increase in cases of coronavirus and quarantine measures are being tightened in most regions. As a result, India has already recorded a decline in demand for petroleum products, and this trend will continue.The American company Colonial Pipeline, the largest operator of a network of pipelines for the supply of gasoline and diesel in the United States, was subjected to a hacker attack and was forced to stop the operation of part of its systems. According to Bloomberg, this may lead to interruptions in the supply of petroleum products in major cities on the east coast of the United States. The company is currently working to restore its systems and promises to minimize delays in the delivery of petroleum products to consumers. Despite this, prices may react with an increase in the first days of the new week. WTI Oil Trading Signals The forecast assumes an increase in the price of WTI crude oil to the levels of 65, 65.3 and 65.5 Dollars per barrel.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Forex. Gold exchange rate forecast for today May 10, 2021
Gold is rising in price on the back of lower yields and a lower Dollar. On Friday, prices rose to a two-month high and reached the best mark of the week in six months. The quotes were fixed above the resistance level of $1800 and reached the level of $1830.The NFP report showed an unexpected slowdown in U.S. job growth, supporting the case for economic stimulus and low interest rates. The data shows that only 266,000 jobs were created in the US in April. Treasury yields fell on the news as risk appetite declined and the dollar weakened, which ultimately boosted demand for gold as a defensive asset.Gold has recovered from a poor start to the year, when it came under pressure from a rising dollar and bond yields. Both factors are already less relevant, and inflation expectations are rising against the background of strengthening demand for commodities. The low number of new jobs reinforces the opinion of market participants that a tightening of monetary policy is not yet expected. Employment data is traditionally late, but using last month's figures, there is no need to change the current policy that supports gold prices. Several Fed officials immediately lowered inflation concerns and withdrew the idea of reducing bond purchases. Signals for Gold trading on Forex In the forecast, I expect the Gold price to continue to rise to the levels of 1835, 1840 and 1850 Dollars per ounce.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Forex forecast. Pound GBP/USD for today for today May 10, 2021
On Friday, the US dollar declined against the British pound, the quotes rose to the price value of 1.3880.The pair returned to the middle of the range, where it has been since mid-February. Rising US unemployment and strong UK data kept the pound from falling further. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the US economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year. Inflation will also rise significantly, but businesses are not changing their medium-term pricing plans. The Fed expects inflationary pressures to ease in the second half of the year and has no plans to change its monetary policy.A similar situation has developed in the UK. Consumer price growth is growing, but it does not reflect a real recovery in inflation. The Bank of England is slowing its bond purchases to 3.4 billion pounds a week between May and August in response to strengthening economic indicators. The regulator also raised its GDP forecasts for 2021 and lowered them for 2022. At the same time, even the previous February estimate of the Bank of England was at the upper end of the agreed range, and the latest change now risks seeming overly aggressive and may require an early increase in the interest rate. Analysts at Barclays noted that the Bank of England was already one of the most optimistic regulators even before it raised its economic outlook. Signals for trading GBP/USD currency pair The forecast assumes a corrective decline in Pound/Dollar to the supports of 1.3860, 1.3830 and 1.3800.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Forex. EUR/USD trading forecast for today, May 10, 2021
On Friday, Dollar accelerated its decline after the US Department of Labor published employment data in the country. The euro/dollar currency pair reached its highest level since February at 1.2160.Contrary to expectations, the monthly report showed an increase in unemployment from 6% to 6.1%, and the number of newly created jobs was almost 25% lower than expected - 266,000 against a million. At the same time, employment in the industry, transport sector and retail trade declined in April. The indicator for March was also revised downwards. While 916,000 new jobs were initially reported, the new estimate is only 770,000. The data came as a shock to market participants, who had expected fundamentally different figures. During the pandemic, the American economy lost 22 million jobs, and about 8 million are still not restored.The fall in the number of jobs does not in itself indicate the weakness of the US economy. Last week's data showed that the country's productivity jumped in the first quarter of the year, as production growth outpaced the increase in the number of hours worked. Labor productivity in the non-agricultural sector increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.4% compared to the previous quarter. It is generally assumed that the higher the indicator, the more restrained the inflationary pressure. Now the situation is somewhat different, consumer prices are rising rapidly, although it is unlikely that price pressure will last long. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Friday that price growth will return to normal in the first half of the year. Signals for trading EUR/USD currency pair In the forecast, Forex pair Euro/Dollar is expected to decline to the levels of 1.2140, 1.2120 and 1.2100.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Business conditions in Australia improved sharply in April
The index, which measures business conditions in Australia, rose 8 points in April from the previous month to 32 points. According to the report, which was published by the statistical office of the country. It also notes that all the components that make up this index also showed positive dynamics. So, the subindex, which characterizes trading conditions in Australia, rose in April by 5 points and amounted to 40 points. The indicator that measures the degree of profitability of companies increased by 8 points in monthly terms to 33 points. The employment sub-index rose 7 points to 22 points. This indicator has improved even though the government's employment support program has expired. Business confidence in the Australian economy also rose in April. The corresponding indicator increased by 9 points to 26 points. The growth of confidence was recorded in all sectors of the country's economy against the background of the recovery of retail trade.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Experts predict an increase in oil prices to $100
Many countries are beginning to give preference to "green" energy. In this regard, investments in the oil and gas sector are declining. This process began in 2015. Last year, the volume of investments of large companies in the development of oil fields and production of raw materials decreased by 10-50% compared to the planned volume of investments. Experts believe that the decline in investment in the industry in the coming years may lead to the formation of a shortage of oil on the market. And this will cause its price to rise to $100 per barrel. This scenario looks quite real. Especially considering that it usually takes from 5 to 7 years to develop a new oil field. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs previously announced a possible increase in oil prices to $100. They noted that the response of the authorities of developed countries to the current crisis is actually the same as during the crisis of 2008-2009. The downturn in the economy was then stopped with the help of large financial injections. This led to a sharp increase in demand for energy resources. Oil prices exceeded $ 120 per barrel. Bank experts believe that in 2023-2025, such a scenario may be repeated.
10.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
Cryptocurrencies. Trading forecast and signal for today, May 6, 2021
Bitcoin strengthened towards the $57,400 resistance level. Ethereum returned to the price value of $3,400, and the price of XRP rose to $1.39. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to $2.36 trillion.Investments in cryptocurrency-based products rose to $489 million last week. The indicator reached its highest since February of this year, with products on Ethereum being particularly popular. According to a new report from digital asset management company CoinShares, the influx of money into Ethereum investment products reached 30 million last week. Many digital asset managers saw an outflow of investment in Europe, while their North American counterparts confirmed the active growth of investments in similar products. The largest inflow of investment was in Bitcoin-related products. Analysts at CoinShares believe that some investors are starting to take riskier positions while others capitulate and take profits.Over the coming months, customers of some US banks will be able to buy, sell and store bitcoin using existing accounts. To provide financial institutions with such opportunities, a subsidiary of the asset manager Stone Ridge has entered into a partnership with the financial technology giant Fidelity Information Services (FIS). Hundreds of banks are already participating in the program, most of them small institutions with several branches. In recent months, plans to launch bitcoin-related products have been reported by major financial corporations such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. But it was about cryptocurrency access solutions for major players. The new initiative will allow retail customers to invest in digital assets through the traditional banking system. Bitcoin, ETH and XRP Trading Signal for Today, May 6, 2021 The forecast expects the Bitcoin price to rise to the levels of 57700, 58000 and 58500 Dollars. Ethereum will reach the levels of $3425, $3450 and $3500, while XRP will reach the price values of $1.40, $1.42 and $1.45.
06.05.2021 Avatar MaxMar Read
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