Forex. Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) trading forecast for today, April 14
On Tuesday, the Euro/Dollar rose to 1.1940.
Published in Germany, data from the ZEW Institute for April showed that the index of economic sentiment fell to the level of 70.7 against expectations of 79 points. The same indicator in the Euro area for the reporting month fell to 66.3 and also turned out to be worse than expected. The indicator experienced a drop for the first time since November 2020. Financial market experts are now somewhat less euphoric than in the previous month. Fears of greater isolation have led to lower expectations of private consumption. But the export outlook is still better than in the previous month.
The US consumer price index rose by 2.6% in March, while core inflation strengthened by 1.6%. The figures came out within the forecasts of economists, but below the expectations of the market, caused by the hype. In this scenario, the dollar suffered as a result of the classic reaction - "buy on rumors, sell on facts". If the core consumer price index reaches at least 1.8% in the coming months, then the US currency will rise against the background of a likely scenario of an increase in the Fed's interest rate or, at least, a reduction in the volume of bond purchases earlier than expected. If inflation remains in the current range, it will be a positive shock to stock markets, leading to a longer period of low rates.
EUR/USD Trading Signal
In the forecast, I assume a further increase in EUR/USD to 1.2000.