Forex forecast EUR/USD for today
At the end of last week, the single currency rate declined against the dollar to 1.1755. Stock markets in America and Europe were closed on Friday before Easter, but the US government released employment data because the holiday is not official. The number of people employed outside of agriculture increased by 916,000, which is significantly more than the average forecast of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6%, from 6.2% in February. Employment figures for February were also revised up. At the same time, the average hourly wage did not meet expectations, falling by 0.1%, and increasing by 4.2% compared to the previous year. Despite the high number of new jobs, it is still almost 8.5 million lower than in February 2020. The unemployment rate is still falling strongly due to the reduction in the level of participation of residents in the labor market.
Despite the strong indicators, they are unlikely to change the Fed's position on monetary policy. The economy is recovering, but so far there is nothing that will change the direction of the monetary vector. The yield on 10-year treasury bonds will test the level of 1.77%, but is unlikely to overcome this figure. Yields are rising due to a positive economic outlook, helped by the presentation of President Joe Biden's $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending plan. A strong labor market is likely to be positive for the US Dollar. The movement of USD to multi-month highs may continue, as more investors bet on the economic recovery.
In the forecast, I assume a decline in the Euro/Dollar to the support 1.1700.