Forex forecast for Pound/Dollar (GBP/USD) for today
At the beginning of the new week, the Pound/Dollar is trading around 1.1830. At the end of last week, the British currency strengthened against the Dollar, and this may indicate the beginning of the recovery of the uptrend. The Pound received an additional boost after the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector was revised upward to 58.9 points for March against 57.9 previously forecast. Against the backdrop of the rapid rollout of universal vaccination in the UK and the gradual lifting of restrictions, the data confirms the prospects for a rapid recovery of the country's economy. The forecasts for economic growth in the United States are roughly similar, and USD does not have a clear advantage over the GBP. The quotes fell back by more than 300 points from the maximum value in February, but in recent weeks there has been an upward trend again.
After its last meeting, the Bank of England has ceased to be the main factor influencing the dynamics of the Pound. In the first half of the year, market participants do not expect new changes in monetary policy by the British regulator. Further steps are still in doubt, much will depend on the actual performance of the country's economic recovery and on consumer inflation. At the moment, the long-term outlook for the Pound looks much less confident than, for example, for the Euro, where there is little doubt about further depreciation of the single currency. The Pound is likely to trade in a wide sideways range over the coming months.
In the forecast, I expect GBP/USD to strengthen to 1.39.