Forex forecast for Pound/Dollar (GBP/USD) for today, April 9
On Thursday, the Pound/Dollar strengthened to 1.3740.
In recent days, one of the key factors influencing GBP has been unexpected problems with vaccination. The government has recommended against using the AstraZeneca vaccine for those under the age of 30. Although the UK is ahead of the rest of the world in terms of vaccination rates, there are concerns that further activity may decline due to current problems. The pace of economic recovery will directly depend on the complete lifting of restrictions, which, in turn, is associated with the maximum vaccination of citizens. Thus, the difficulties with AstraZeneca may cause serious changes in forecasts and, as a result,the collapse of the British Pound.
Traders still face maximum uncertainty about the Pound's future prospects. According to forecasts, consumer inflation in the country should recover quite quickly and cause a tightening of monetary policy. But the latest data showed that price growth is not yet in line with forecasts. If the restrictions last longer than expected, expectations for inflation may worsen even more. In the second half of the year, the Bank of England will return to considering a scenario with negative rates, and if consumer price growth is not high enough, instead of tightening monetary policy, easing may follow.
In my forecast, I expect Pound/Dollar (GBP/USD) to decline to 1.3675.