Forex forecast for today. Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD)
On Monday, EUR is the single currency rose sharply against the US Dollar and reached 1.1810.
The US Dollar currency index fell to weekly lows around 92.7 points. Given that the indicator has now fallen below the 200-day moving average, the intraday bias seems to be shifted in favor of sellers. The negative outlook is supported by short-term technical indicators on hourly charts. It is noteworthy that the fall of the dollar coincided with the release of the next block of the most positive macro statistics of the United States. As reported last Friday by the Ministry of Labor, the number of jobs in the country in March increased by 916,000, and this is a record high in the last seven months. Some experts call this report sensational.
Business activity in the US services sector also grew at a record pace in March. According to the ISM, the indicator reached a historical high of 63.7 from 55.3 in February. This value also exceeded market expectations by a wide margin of 58.5 points. The strong fall in the Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR) is at odds with strong US economic data, but the daily chart clearly shows that it is only a correction. The single currency remains the outsider in this pair, as the economic recovery in the Euro zone is significantly inferior to the US, and the long-term weak growth in inflation in the region means that the Fed will start raising interest rates before the ECB.
In the forecast, I assume a decline in the EUR/USD to the support 1.1750.