Forex forecast for today for Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD)
On Thursday, the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) rose slightly and reached 1.1915.
EUR found support after the statements of the head of the central bank of Austria, Robert Holzman. He unexpectedly said that the ECB could start reducing its bond purchases in the summer. The current market consensus forecast does not yet imply any reduction in the quantitative easing program in the near future. This statement is somewhat at odds with the tone of the minutes of the last ECB meeting.
The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week was 744,000, and this is worse than expected and worse than the previous result. In the short term, EUR/USDr looks moderately upward. Now the quotes should move above the current resistance of 1.1915 to get a new growth momentum.
According to the minutes of the last ECB meeting, the European regulator will maintain a soft monetary policy for as long as necessary, and does not see the risk of overheating yet. The observed increase in the yield of sovereign securities remains restrained and unrelated to events in the United States, according to the Euro zone regulator. ECB officials unanimously acknowledged that extensive monetary stimulus is still needed. According to forecasts, the economic recovery will depend as much as possible on budget support in the next two years.
In my forecast, I assume a further increase of Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) to the resistance level of 1.1975.