The ruble ended last week with a weakening after four weeks of active growth.
The dollar exchange rate increased by 5.2% over the week, to 80.00 rubles / $, which is almost four rubles higher than the closing level of the previous week.
Pressure on the Russian currency was exerted by the decision of the Bank of Russia to ease a number of restrictions on the purchase and withdrawal of currency, introduced on March 9. The Central Bank canceled the commission of 12% for the purchase of currency on the stock exchange.
In the coming week, the weakening of the ruble may contribute to the Central Bank's permission for banks to sell cash currency from April 18, which has been received at the cash desks since April 9, Promsvyazbank notes. The excess supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market continues to act as support due to limited imports into the country.
The tax period is ahead: about 2.2 trillion rubles will be required to pay VAT, mineral extraction tax and income tax by the end of April. In the absence of foreign policy pressure, the ruble is likely to remain near the current values, Zenit Bank suggests.
The balance of factors is formed in such a way that even with the further weakening of currency control measures, the Russian currency is unlikely to sink much below current levels in the near future, the BCS believes.
It seems logical to mitigate the requirements for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, since further strengthening of the ruble is not in the interests of fiscal policy. The dollar exchange rate above the level of 80 rubles/ $ is more comfortable for the budget, the Russian Standard bank notes.
The dynamics of the ruble in the future will be entirely determined by exports and the rigidity of restrictive measures of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Raiffeisenbank believes.
Sberbank expects that the ruble may strengthen to 75 per dollar on the horizon before the end of April. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is unlikely to rush to mitigate the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings.