Forex. GBP/USD trading forecast and signal for today, April 30
Forex currency pair GBP/USD was almost unchanged at the end of the trading session on Thursday, remaining near the level of 1.3935. Pound rose in early London trading on Thursday, after the Fed's forecast led to a weakening of the Dollar. In Asian trading, GBP reached a nine-day high of 1.3976.
Political events in the UK led to a further fall in GBP. The country's Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is under pressure from a series of accusations over the reaction to a possible next lockdown, as well as over an investigation into leaks of private information from his office. Combined with the upcoming Scottish election, all of this points to a limited upside potential for the British Pound in the short term.
On May 6, the UK will hold regional and local elections, including a vote in Scotland, which is expected to reveal the advantage of the majority of supporters of independence. Scotland voted to remain a United Kingdom in 2014, and most analysts believe a second independence referendum is unlikely. Nevertheless, the situation in the markets now reflects the potential risk of the country's independence after the elections. A moderate fall in the pound can be expected if the Scottish nationalists win a majority. However, the likelihood of Scotland actually leaving the UK remains low. Pound's recent and potential further short-term losses are likely to be temporary. As soon as the noise subsides again after the election, GBP may gradually rise in value again, as the country sees a steady rebound in the economy after the pandemic.
Trading signals for GBP/USD
In the forecast, GBP/USD is expected to rise to the price values of 1.3950, 1.3970 and 1.3800.