On Thursday, the exchange rate of the euro/dollar currency pair fell to the level of 1.1765.
The latest US macroeconomic data showed a slight slowdown in the growth rate of inflation, but it continues to remain at an elevated level by historical standards. As a result, the Fed will sooner or later be forced to start reducing the asset purchase program. Specific plans may become clear as early as next Wednesday, and until that time, investors will probably prefer not to make sudden movements. World commodity prices remain at ten-year highs, which is a strong inflationary factor. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said yesterday that the economic growth of the Eurozone remains strong, but still requires support from the regulator. According to the banker, production problems caused by supply disruptions have a negative impact on the economic prospects of the region. No rate hike is expected yet, but one day it will take place. Market participants estimate the probability of a rate cut in the Eurozone as the lowest possible, and do not expect a tightening of monetary policy in the next year or two.
The forecast assumes a further decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate to the levels of 1.1740, 1.1720 and 1.1700.