Forex. Trading forecast for GBP/USD for today, April 12
On Friday, Pound/Dollar fell to the support of 1.3700.
Demand for the US currency caused the pair to fall by about 200 points from last week's high. Another key factor in favor of the decline in quotations was the uncertain situation with vaccination in the UK. Earlier, market participants predicted that the country would be one of the first in Europe to complete the main vaccination process, but recent events significantly adjust this estimate. As a result, the forecasts for the economic recovery in the UK may also change downwards.
Analysts at investment bank CIBC say the Pound will be able to hold on to its recent gains against the US Dollar. According to trading forecasts, GBP/USD will trade at 1.3800 by the end of the second quarter, and at 1.4100 by the end of the third quarter of the year. In the second quarter, the market reduced its overall position on the pound after reaching annual highs. Corporate cash flows before the dividend payments in May provided positive capital inflows to the British currency, although the results of the dividend distribution will lead to a partly mirror result next month. The bank considers the current adjustment of the pound positions as providing space for the asset to recover in the short term. Leading indicators, the index of business activity in the service sector, the indicator of consumer confidence, surveys of the Confederation of British industrialists-all this indicates a strong recovery in the economy. Consumer activity is likely to be higher than previously expected, so the Pound will be able to maintain its position against the Dollar in the second quarter.
In my forecast, I expect the Pound/Dollar to rise to 1.3775.