On Monday, the exchange rate of the pound/dollar pair fell slightly to the level of 1.3830.
In general, the pound maintains a good position against the US currency after the publication of strong data on industrial production and production in the manufacturing sector last week. Good indicators increase the likelihood of a reduction in the Bank of England's quantitative easing program this year. Market participants are focused on the next meeting of the regulator in September and expect to receive certain signals about the time of the beginning of monetary policy easing. If the Bank of England announces the beginning of a reduction in purchases of securities this year, then the pound has a good chance to grow against the dollar. Today, another important release on the labor market will be released in the UK, the second most important factor after consumer inflation for the Bank of England's decision-making. The three-month unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.6%, and the average wage growth will fall to 6.8%. In general, this is a negative forecast for the pound, but if the data turns out to be slightly better than expected, the growth of the British currency may be quite noticeable.
The forecast assumes an increase in the exchange rate of the pound/dollar pair to the resistance levels of 1.3850, 1.3870 and 1.3900.