WTI oil reached the resistance level of $72 per barrel after two days of decline.
Expectations of a reduction in oil supplies continue to support the buyers of the asset. Oil production in the United States last week decreased by 200,000 barrels per day, according to the weekly review of the Energy Information Administration of the Ministry of Energy of the country. On average, over the past four weeks, oil production in the United States amounted to 11.3 million barrels per day. At the beginning of the month, the US Department of Energy raised the forecast of average oil production in the country for 2021 to 11.1 million barrels per day. Commercial oil reserves in the country for the week decreased by 0.9%, or by 4.1 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by the DailyFX portal expected the indicator to fall by only 2.9 million barrels.
In the middle of the month, the countries participating in the OPEC+ deal agreed on a coordinated policy on the oil market until the end of 2022. But the direction of the market movement remains a mystery, to the growth of demand or its reduction, deficit or surplus. According to the US Department of Energy, for the period from January to May, global oil demand increased by 3.3 million barrels per day, while supply increased by only 1.13 million. The supply deficit is estimated at 1.5-2 million barrels per day, but the future prospects are as uncertain as possible. The arguments of supporters of production growth look more convincing. According to a Bloomberg study, in the period from 2015 to 2019, the G20 countries spent $3.3 trillion on subsidizing coal, oil and gas, despite loud promises to switch to wind and solar, and a drop in investment in oil and gas by 20-30% last year will not change the overall trend.
In our forecast, we expect an increase in the price of WTI oil to the levels of 72.25, 72.50 and 72.80 dollars per barrel.