WTI crude oil is trading near the key level of $70 per barrel.
Analysts of the International Energy Agency believe that the global oil market will be able to approach the balance in the last three months of this year, which will be facilitated by the OPEC+ agreement. During this period, the participants of the transaction will produce about 300,000 barrels per day below the demand for oil. If the alliance continues to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, the total supply on the market may exceed demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022, provided that Iran remains under sanctions. By the second quarter of 2022, oil production in OPEC+ may exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels per day. This possible increase in commercial reserves in 2022 will outweigh their decline, which, according to expectations, may last until the end of this year. The IEA also estimated the losses associated with the recent hurricane Ida in the United States. Based on the agency's calculations, a prolonged production shutdown can lead to total losses in oil production of up to 30 million barrels. The drop in production in the Gulf in August is estimated at 270,000 barrels per day, the forecast for a decline in September is 650,000 barrels per day. According to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Protection, as of September 12, 48.6% of oil production and 54.4% of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico are still stopped.
The forecast expects a decline in the price of WTI oil to the levels of 69.75, 69.50 and 69 dollars per barrel.
Read more: The International Energy Agency (IEA) - brief history and activity