Forex trading. WTI Oil forecast for today, May 25, 2021
At the beginning of the week, oil markets are actively recovering. The WTI barrel rose to the price value of $65.7.
The gradual recovery of the economy, the widespread introduction of the coronavirus vaccine and the beginning of easing restrictions have a positive impact on oil prices and support optimistic expectations of demand prospects until the end of the year. Bidders are also closely watching the news about Iran. The IAEA and Tehran have agreed to extend the agency's inspections in Iran for another month. The outcome of the negotiations will affect the dynamics of oil prices in one way or another. At the same time, analysts note that supplies from Iran will not return to the market as quickly as previously expected.
Current oil prices suggest that Iranian oil will return to the market by the end of the summer. However, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, this will not prevent the price of WTI oil from rising to $75 per barrel, as investors are too pessimistic and underestimate the upcoming recovery in demand. In particular, the recovery in transport activity and overall mobility in developed countries is likely to exceed current forecasts. This should offset the recent slowdown in South Asia and Latin America.
The expected recovery in global oil demand will force OPEC+ to increase production by 2.8 million barrels per day by December this year. Goldman Sachs is lowering its forecasts for non-OPEC+ oil production, including the US shale industry, and predicts that the upcoming recovery in demand will not only destroy the remaining excess reserves of raw materials, but also require the alliance to significantly increase production by December this year. At the same time, the bank's baseline scenario implies the return of imports from Iran only by October.
Signals for trading WTI currency pair
The forecast assumes an increase in the price of WTI oil to the levels of 66, 66.3 and 67 Dollars per barrel.