Forex. WTI Crude Oil trading forecast for today April 15
WTI oil rose sharply to the resistance level of $63 per barrel on the background of previously published data from the US Department of Energy on raw material reserves in the country. The released statistics on stocks significantly exceeded the forecasts of experts on their decline. Commercial oil reserves in the country over the past week decreased at a record pace since February — by 5.9 million barrels. At the same time, analysts had expected a decline of only 2.9 million barrels.
Following OPEC, the International Energy Agency improved its forecasts for an increase in oil demand in 2021 from 5.5 million barrels per day to 5.7 million. The new assessment is based on positive expectations of a recovery in the global economy through fiscal stimulus. According to the IEA, OPEC oil production increased by 210,000 barrels per day in March. The members of the alliance fulfilled the deal to reduce production by 113% due to additional restrictions from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Russia has fulfilled its obligations only by 95%. The main threat to the oil market, the IEA sees an increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus in countries with high fuel consumption. The worst situation is in Europe, which accounts for 15% of global hydrocarbon imports. The increase in the number of cases led to the introduction of new lockdowns in Germany and France, which limited car traffic and air traffic.
Nevertheless, the agency positively assesses the pace of the global economic recovery and expects it to continue. This is due to the package of assistance to the US economy in the amount of 1.9 trillion Dollars, as well as an increase in the volume of imports to China in March by 28%.
WTI Trading Signal
The forecast assumes an increase in the price of WTI oil to $63.80 per barrel.