Forex. WTI Oil trading forecast for today, April 12
Since the end of last week, WTI oil has been trading just above the support level of $59 per barrel.
Oil markets remain under pressure amid prospects for a recovery in demand for raw materials in the context of easing production restrictions by OPEC+ countries and news about the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus. The recent tightening of quarantine restrictions in several European countries, as well as high rates of disease in India, cast doubt on the short-term prospects for a recovery in oil demand.
Meanwhile, India is ready to buy more Iranian oil immediately if US sanctions on Iran are lifted. According to some reports, India's refiners have already been instructed to buy less crude oil from Saudi Arabia after a war of words between the two countries over oil policy. India has been pushing its main suppliers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, to increase production for several months to make oil prices more comfortable for the world's third-largest importer. Saudi Arabia has responded to India's call to action by raising its official selling price. India's next move was to recommend that its refiners reduce the amount of commodities purchased from Saudi Arabia in May. In May, Indian refineries are preparing to buy 36% less Saudi oil than previously planned. Meanwhile, U.S. oil imports to India have surged in recent months, making the United States the second-largest oil supplier to Delhi after Saudi Arabia. India's oil purchases from Saudi Arabia have already fallen by 42% in February. The issue of lifting sanctions on Iran remains open, and its positive decision can cause a strong influx of oil to the world market and, as a result, a collapse in prices.
In my forecast, I expect a decline in the price of a barrel of WTI oil to 58.50 USD.