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Gold: traders are skeptical about the price increase

According to the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - for the week ended last Tuesday:

  • Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) reduced the net position for the purchase of Gold contracts by 10.7 thousand contracts to 173.5 thousand.
  • Large speculative players have reduced their net buy position after a week-long build-up, and are reducing it for 2 weeks out of the last 3. The net position was the lowest since the beginning of April.

 

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) reduced the net position for the sale of gold contracts by 6.1 thousand contracts to 211.9 thousand. Hedger operators also reduce their net selling position for 2 weeks out of the last 3. Open interest decreased by 21.7 thousand contracts to 635.5 thousand.

The bullish index of large speculators (the ratio of the number of contracts for buying to the number of contracts for selling) fell by 0.21 to 2.71 for the week.

 

Gold

 

Summary: COT reports on Gold reflect the growth of bearish sentiment. After a one-week break, traders resumed reducing their net position on rising prices. At the same time, the net position of large speculators has become the lowest in the last month. Large funds increased Gold sales by 6% over the week, and purchases were also reduced. The continuation of this trend may contribute to a decrease in prices for the precious metal.

At the same time, the net position of traders has not changed much in the last three weeks, which indicates a sideways movement of the market.

Note: COT report data is fundamental and is mainly used for medium and long-term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually trade according to the trend. Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend. The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts (the green line on the chart is the net position of large speculators; the blue line is the net position of hedgers). Open interest is the sum of all open positions in the market.

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