Gold: XAUUSD trading forecast for today, September 14, 2021

Gold: XAUUSD trading forecast for today, September 14, 2021

Gold is still trading with low volatility on the approaches to the resistance level of $1800 per ounce.

Yesterday, the quotes closed the session at $1,792. Last week, the gold exchange rate fell for the first time on a weekly basis in more than a month and fell to $1,786 per ounce. The same factors caused the adjustment – an increase in the yield of US Treasury securities and an increase in the US currency index. However, the longer the precious metal sags now, the larger its rally may be in the future. Many factors indicate that the uptrend is ready to resume. It is not just about the fact that the central banks of the leading countries of the world allow the inflation rate to grow further. It should also be noted that there is a high probability of a collapse of quotations on the stock markets in the United States. The largest investment banks of the country warn about this. Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that the share price exceeded the profitability of the companies by 21 times. Stock indexes cannot grow indefinitely, and the financial bubble will soon burst. In addition, we should not forget about the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and the new wave of coronavirus. However, the current dynamics of the gold exchange rate allows investors to increase their reserves, preparing for the worst scenarios of the development of the situation in the economy. It is not surprising that there is a jump in demand for gold jewelry in China. Investment demand also remains stable almost all over the world.

The forecast expects an increase in the price of gold to the levels of 1795, 1800 and 1810 dollars per ounce.

Trader Avatar


View forecasts for Gold

Other blogs by this trader

Economic statistics for the week of September 20-26, 2021
Economic statistics for the week of September 20-26, 2021 In the macroeconomic statistics coming out next week, the following indicators can be distinguished:MondayIn New Zealand, the index of activity in the service sector from Business NZ will be released. In the UK, the Rightmove house price index will be published. In Germany, the producer price index will be known. The Bundesbank will present a monthly report with an analysis of the current and expected state of the economy. The US will publish an index of the market value of housing.TuesdayThe Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey will be released in New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of its last meeting. In Switzerland, data on imports, exports and the overall trade balance will be known. In the UK, indicators of net public sector borrowing will be released. The Central Bank of Sweden will hold a meeting, the regulator's decision on the interest rate will become known. And also in Sweden, the unemployment rate will come out. In the US, data on the construction of houses started and the Redbook retail sales indicator will be published. The American Petroleum Institute will report on the reserves of raw materials last week.WednesdayIn Australia, the Westpac index of leading indicators will be released. Central bank meetings will be held in China and Japan, and a decision on changing the interest rate will be announced. The deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, will make a speech.The ECB will hold a meeting in the Eurozone that is not directly related to monetary policy issues. In Italy, the producer price index and sales data in the industrial sector will be released. The Swiss National Bank will present a quarterly report. In Russia, the producer price index and industrial production indicators will be known.In the US, the MBA mortgage lending index and sales data on the secondary housing market will be published. The Energy Information Administration will report last week on commercial oil reserves. The meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee will be held on the same day. The US regulator will announce its decision on the interest rate and publish its position on monetary policy.ThursdayIn Australia, business activity indices in the manufacturing sector in the service sector will be released. In France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK, business activity indicators in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector will be published. On this day, meetings of the Central Banks of Switzerland and England will be held. In the US, the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits, the index of national activity of the Federal Reserve of Chicago, indicators of activity in manufacturing and in the service sector will be released. The Energy Information Administration will report on natural gas reserves for the past week.FridayIn New Zealand, data on imports, exports and the overall trade balance will be released. In Japan, the consumer price index and the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be published. In the UK, the Gfk consumer confidence index will be known. In Sweden, the producer price index will be released, and in Italy - the level of confidence in business circles. In Germany, the business optimism index, an indicator of the assessment of the current situation and an indicator of economic expectations from the IFO will be published. In the US, new home sales data will be released. Baker Hughes will report on the number of active drilling rigs last week in the United States and in the world.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
Pound/Dollar: trading forecast for the week of September 20-26, 2021
Pound/Dollar: trading forecast for the week of September 20-26, 2021 Last week, the British currency exchange rate reached the lowest value since the end of August and fell against the US dollar to the level of 1.3725.An extremely negative factor for the pound was the news about the closure of some British factories due to the energy crisis in Europe. This is the first sign that the record increase in gas and electricity prices may slow down the country's economic recovery. CF Industries Holdings announced on Wednesday that it is shutting down production facilities due to high natural gas prices. At the same time, the company did not give any forecasts for the resumption of production. This is due to a serious shortage of energy resources in Europe and a record increase in gas and electricity prices. The continent does not have time to fill the storage facilities before the beginning of winter, as flows from leading suppliers from Russia and Norway are still limited. In addition, countries are competing for the supply of liquefied natural gas, while Asia is buying up cargo to meet its own demand. The crisis can lead to serious economic consequences.According to Goldman Sachs, due to a sharp increase in prices, there may be a risk of power outages in the winter, which is likely to lead to an even greater increase in energy prices, increasing fears of inflation and increasing the costs of enterprises for raw materials. High energy prices put inflationary pressure on all other costs, which will eventually spread to consumers. Higher costs for heating homes will hit consumers ' wallets when they already have to pay more for food. At the same time, many are still struggling with the economic consequences of the pandemic.The long-awaited meeting of the Bank of England will be held next week. For sure, the meeting will continue to reassess forecasts, started earlier this month by the chairman of the British Central Bank, Andrew Bailey, thanks to the August report on inflation in the UK. Forecasts now suggest that the interest rate will be raised by almost 40 basis points next year. The Bank of England noted that the level of 0.5% will be the minimum to which it is necessary to rise before starting to reduce the balance sheet. It is assumed that either the market is sure that the top of the current cycle will really be the level of 0.5%, or the Central Bank will face some problems when it stops reinvesting the proceeds from the repayment of bonds in its portfolio. This seems an incredibly distant prospect, but for the sake of completeness, the possibility of a partial sale of securities from its portfolio is being considered when the bank's interest rate reaches 1.5%. The Bank of England has already moved further along the path of tightening than its main competitors among advanced economies. Its strategy of reducing quantitative easing may be completed by the end of this year. But analysts still assume that it will be difficult for Central Banks to match the degree of tightening of the previous cycle. For the Bank of England, it is 0.75% and 2.5% for the Fed. This assumption, as well as the constant pressure on the bond market caused by the bloated balance sheets of central banks, means that investors do not have much doubts about chasing lower yields.The forecast for the coming week assumes a corrective growth of the pound/dollar pair to the levels of 1.3725, 1.3750 and 1.3800.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
Euro/Dollar: trading forecast for the week of September 20-26, 2021
Euro/Dollar: trading forecast for the week of September 20-26, 2021 At the end of last week, the euro / dollar exchange rate fell to the support level of 1.1725. The latest US macroeconomic data showed a slight slowdown in the growth rate of inflation in August, but it continues to remain at an elevated level by historical standards.Traders expect that the US regulator will sooner or later be forced to start reducing the asset purchase program. The specific plans of the regulator may become clear as early as next Wednesday, and until that time, market participants will probably prefer not to open large positions. In the Eurozone, consumer inflation rose by 1.6% in August, and this fully coincided with the preliminary estimate. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said that economic growth in the Eurozone remains strong, but still requires support from the regulator. There is no question of raising rates yet. Inflation in the euro area has strengthened recently, but the temporary effects are expected to disappear in 2022. Price growth is likely to decline again to levels below 2% in the medium term.According to the ECB representatives, with the right monetary and fiscal policy, a fairly strong recovery due to demand should lead to a return of inflation to 2% in the medium term. According to Wells Fargo analysts, in the next six months, the dollar exchange rate is likely to grow by 5% rather than decrease by a similar amount. A hawkish surprise from the Fed is much more likely than a similar surprise from the European Central Bank. This means that an increase in the rate differential between the US and Europe, and with it a strengthening of the US dollar, is more likely than a decline in the coming months. This view is based on the assumption that monetary policy and short-term rate differences are the most important factors of the currency markets at present.A 5% or more decline in the dollar is likely to require either a soft surprise from the Fed or a hawkish surprise from the ECB. Wells Fargo sees an extremely small risk that the European regulator will adopt a strategy that will significantly change the expectations of a rate change over the next six months. The Fed may refuse to tighten monetary policy if the data on inflation or employment in the US are significantly worse than expected. However, short-term rates in the US are already almost zero, which means that there is probably more room for an increase than for a decrease. This point of view may be incorrect if the foreign exchange market focuses on any other driver besides monetary policy. But even in this case, Wells Fargo doubts that any of the other factors will be able to tilt the balance of risks towards a significant fall in the dollar, rather than growth.The forecast assumes a further decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate to the levels of 1.1700, 1.1680 and 1.1660.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
Market cap of the stablecoin market has exceeded $120 billion
Market cap of the stablecoin market has exceeded $120 billion The value of bitcoin has fallen to the level of $47,600. Ethereum declined to the level of $3,350, and XRP - to the price value of $ 1.07.The total capitalization of the digital currency market was $2.13 trillion.The total market capitalization of the stablecoin market has exceeded $120 billion. More than half of the offer is accounted for by the leader of the Tether segment. Messari analysts explained the rapid growth of the stable coins sector by the fact that they are the best means of storing and moving US dollars around the world. Stablecoins are used to move capital between exchanges, as collateral on crypto-derivative platforms, in applications of decentralized finance, as well as for cross-border payments. In the second quarter of 2020, the volume of transactions with these assets exceeded $1.7 trillion, and the value increased 14 times in 12 months. Analysts also noted that due to the above-mentioned properties of stable coins, more and more financial institutions in the US domestic market are transferring transactions to the blockchain. This step allows them to reduce the cost structure. Meanwhile, the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has begun studying the Central Bank's digital currencies. This is stated on the website of the UK Parliament. In April, the Bank of England and the Treasury created a joint working group to study the state stablecoin. The Committee will gather evidence on the main issues that the Treasury and the Bank face during their work. It will also consider how the currency can affect the role of the regulator, monetary policy and the financial sector. Earlier, the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane, suggested that the emergence of national digital currencies will reduce the risks of financial crises.In our forecast, we assume a decline in the price of bitcoin to the levels of 47300, 47000 and 46000 dollars. Ethereum will decline to the levels of 3300, 3250 and 3200, and XRP - to the price values of 1.05, 1.03 and 1 dollar.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
WTI crude oil fell slightly to $71.6
WTI crude oil fell slightly to $71.6 Last Friday, WTI crude oil fell slightly and reached $71.6 per barrel.Quotes are held at a high level, reached after a preliminary assessment of the damage from Hurricane Ida. The International Energy Agency last week lowered its forecast for supply growth in 2021 by 150,000 barrels per day, largely due to the effects of the storm. The forecast for demand growth was lowered by 100,000 barrels per day due to the active spread of a new strain of coronavirus. OPEC, like the IEA, lowered its forecast for demand in the third quarter of 2021. However, the agency, unlike OPEC, did not raise the demand estimate in 2022. The alliance revised the forecast of oil demand growth next year upward by 900,000 barrels per day compared to the August estimate. Analysts also note that the number of drilling rigs in the United States is gradually growing. Last week, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by nine units to 512 rigs. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs increased by 10 units, and the number of gas drilling rigs decreased by one. The main increase in drilling occurred in the states of Oklahoma, New Mexico and Texas. According to estimates from the Energy Information Administration, oil production in the United States in September will amount to 10.05 million barrels per day, and in October the figure may increase.In our forecast, we expect a further pullback of the WTI oil price to the levels of 71.30, 71 and 70.75 dollars per barrel.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
Insignificant rebound in the gold price
Insignificant rebound in the gold price An extremely insignificant rebound in the gold price on Friday after a strong sell-off in the previous session did not affect the price drop for the entire week.The quotes remained around the level of $1,754 per ounce. An unexpected increase in US retail sales in August at the beginning of the week revived fears of a reduction in the Fed's stimulus in the near future, which led to an increase in the dollar and a decline in gold by almost 3% on Thursday. The market is almost sure that the Fed will reduce the purchase of securities, and this will increase the yield of US Treasury bonds. This does not bode well for gold and will not allow it to return to the highs of last year. The dollar rose to a three-week peak, which made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while Treasury bond yields also increased. Before the Fed meeting, the quotes are likely to stay in the range of 1750-1780 dollars per ounce. In the future, a strong hawkish shift may provoke another sharp reaction towards a decline in gold prices. The curtailment of economic support measures not only weakens the status of the precious metal as a safe haven, but any subsequent increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in the opportunity cost of owning the asset.In the forecast for the coming week, we assume a corrective recovery of the gold price to the levels of 1760, 1765 and 1770 dollars per ounce.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
British currency fell against the dollar to the support level
British currency fell against the dollar to the support level On Friday, the British currency fell against the dollar to the support level of 1.1725 and reached the lowest value since the end of August.Strong retail sales figures in the US provided the US currency with a lead against other assets. Even despite the strong fall at the end of last week, the pound/dollar pair remains in the range of the last three and a half months. The British currency, in general, retains its positions against the dollar, and it is still difficult to predict a confident downtrend. UK macroeconomic data provide stable demand for the pound, as market participants are waiting for the reduction of the quantitative easing program by the Bank of England. This week, the US and UK regulators will hold meetings, so the volatility of quotations may increase sharply. In both cases, market participants are waiting for important statements from regulators about changes in monetary policy. Both the Fed and the Bank of England may announce a reduction in the volume of purchases of securities from the end of the year. In both cases, this is embedded to some extent in current prices, and the reluctance of Central Banks to announce specific measures may lead to a fall in the exchange rate of the corresponding currency. Conversely, if the Bank of England or the Fed emphasize their maximum commitment to tightening policy as soon as possible, currency quotes may rise.The forecast assumes a corrective strengthening of the pound/dollar exchange rate to the levels of 1.1750, 1.1775 and 1.1800.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
On Friday, euro/dollar currency pair lost more than 50 points
On Friday, euro/dollar currency pair lost more than 50 points EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.1725. The final data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone for August fully coincided with the preliminary ones. In annual terms, inflation increased by 3%. The base indicator strengthened by 1.6%. Inflation significantly exceeds the European Central Bank's target of 2%, but the regulator does not plan to tighten its monetary policy, considering the price increase a temporary phenomenon. After falling to the lowest level since 2011 in August, the indicator of consumer sentiment in the United States in early September improved moderately from 70.3 to 71 points. Analysts conclude from this that consumers are still pessimistic about the current situation. Despite the small increase, the rate is still lower than at any point during the pandemic. This remains a worrying indicator for the consumer outlook. Such a mood indicates weak spending. Retail sales in August were higher than expected, but the data mainly relate to the commodity sector and are not adjusted for price changes. Households maintain a stable financial position, taking into account the accumulated savings over the past year, but the rapid increase in consumer prices and the increase in the number of cases associated with the coronavirus will have a negative impact on spending in the short term.The forecast expects a further decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate to the levels of 1.1700, 1.1680 and 1.1660.
Sep 20, 2021 Read
Message sent successfully.
We will contact you soon!