Forex. Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) forecast for today.
During Friday, a trading range of 1.1480 – 1.1401 was formed.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is now at 1.793%.
The news background contributed to the growth of trading activity. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in December fell by 1.9% compared to the previous month. Experts on average expected a decrease of only 0.1%. The indicator decreased for the first time in 5 months, and the rate of reduction was the highest since February 2021. This is due to an increase in consumer prices, as well as the spread of a new strain of COVID-19 "omicron". In November, according to the revised data, sales increased by 0.2%, and not by 0.3%, as previously announced.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 23 thousand last week - up to 230 thousand people, according to a report by the US Department of Labor. This is the maximum figure since mid-November 2021. A week earlier, the number of requests amounted to 207 thousand, the indicator was not revised.
At the same time, the data on the strengthening of inflation in the US did not support the dollar, since they do not change the market forecasts regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). According to experts, the probability of raising the base interest rate by the Federal Reserve in March is estimated by the market at about 80%.
This week, the US dollar will be sensitive to the release of the number of construction permits issued, the volume of construction of new homes, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and sales in the secondary housing market.