Forex. Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) forecast for today
At the same time, at the beginning of the trading week, an attempt to gain a foothold in a higher trading range is visible, which indicates the willingness of market participants to buy more euros.
Recall that during the week the US dollar held the championship against the euro. The euro sell-off started from Monday's European session, where the weekly peak of the euro was at 1.640, and the weekly low tested the area of 1.1530. The last day of the week showed that traders preferred to fix short euro positions before the weekend.
In the foreign exchange market, the US Federal Reserve System is the driver of the strengthening of the US dollar. At the last meeting, the US regulator made it clear that it will begin to reduce monthly bond purchases in November. Such measures are likely to lead to a possible increase in the interest rate next year. Therefore, in our forecast, we focus on the predominant strengthening of the US dollar against other world currencies. A fundamentally strong US news background and a decline in the shares of tech giants may create new trading conditions before the end of the year.
On Friday, the long-awaited publication of the US unemployment rate for September took place. Unemployment continues to decline at a moderate pace. The current value is at the level of 4.8% against 5.2% a month earlier. The ADP agency, which processes private payslips, reported the creation of 568 thousand jobs. And it significantly exceeded the expectations of market participants. Applications for unemployment benefits last week also indicated that the labor market is recovering from a slight downturn caused by the COVID-19 delta strain.
The beginning of the week may show sluggishness of trading. There will be no important macro statistics of the US or the Eurozone on this day. Therefore, the strengthening of commodity currencies may become the focus of attention.