Forex trading. Euro-Dollar EUR/USD forecast for today, October 5, 2021
There was optimism in the market against the background of the Eurogroup meeting. In addition, the Eurozone consumer price index for September was released on Friday. The current value came out better than the forecast and better than the previous value. Note that this is the maximum value since the crisis of 2008.
Later in the American session, the situation changed dramatically, and the US dollar resumed its strengthening. The auction was influenced by the publication of the volume of US industrial orders for August. Note that the experts' forecast is 1.0% versus 0.4% a month earlier. This time, the past value was revised up, and the current one came out better than the forecast. This, in turn, had a positive impact on trading in the US dollar, as the market received another argument in favor of curtailing the soft monetary policy of the United States. There is a clear priority in favor of strengthening the US dollar in the medium term. The downward trend of the euro/dollar exchange rate psychologically pushes market participants to sell euros more.
It is important to note that the latest signals of the US Federal Reserve still affect trading. Back on September 22, the regulator let the financial markets know that it was time to curtail stimulus measures by mid-2022. Previous years were as soft as possible for the US economy, such measures were needed to stimulate consumption and increase the inflation rate. In addition, do not forget about the pandemic, when retail sales were under the blow of a deadly infection.
Tomorrow, the foreign exchange market will show an increase in trading activity. At the European session, attention will be on the index of business activity in the Eurozone services sector for September. The current value is better than the forecast may increase optimism in the European session, since the last publication of the Eurozone consumer price index strongly strengthened the euro against the US dollar. The release of the UK composite PMI index for September will also add to trading activity. At the same time, the index of business activity in the UK services sector for the same month will be released.
The business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for September will be released at the US session. A little later, the ISM Purchasing Managers' index for the US non-manufacturing sector for September will be published.