The price of oil for the week rose on the news of the blocking of the Suez Canal
At the end of last week, WTI oil returned to the local high of $ 60.65 per barrel.
Quotes rose after reports that the opening of the Suez Canal may take a little longer than previously expected. About 30% of the world's container traffic and about 12% of all world trade passes through the Suez Canal every day. The volume of oil and petroleum products supplies through this route is about 4.4% of the total world volumes. The key oil exporters using the channel for transportation are Saudi Arabia and Russia, while the largest importers are China and India.
It is obvious that supply disruptions can lead to delays, reduce the load of a number of refineries and lead to the revision of contracts with suppliers. In addition, consumers may have claims for compensation to insurance companies, which can also lead to a number of other problems. The emergence of a shortage in certain regions may support oil prices, although the reaction of global benchmarks may largely be due to the actions of speculators in the futures market. Therefore, the real impact on oil prices will have both the timing of the blocking of the Suez Canal, and a number of other factors that are currently focused on by oil market participants.
At the same time, it is obvious that the blocking of the Suez Canal is a short-term moment, and not a reason for a positive reassessment of the prospects. Much more important is the third wave of the pandemic in a number of European countries and the uneven recovery of the world economy with significant differentiation by country and region.
In the forecast, I assume a decline in the price of WTI oil to $60 per barrel.