The world economy is constantly changing. In December 2022 we were forecasted a terrible recession. But in early 2023, the economic data says otherwise: the markets have taken off and investors are looking positively into the future.
What's Happening to the U.S. Economy
Let's start with the US. The U.S. economy is in serious turmoil. Take a look at the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of the year. Do you see this constant up and down movement? That's because investors have stopped believing in the Fed. And they think the Central Bank won't keep monetary policy tight. But let's see:
The U.S. interest rate is 4.5-4.75%. In January, the markets expected it not to rise beyond 5%.
But in January, inflation was already slowing not as much as experts had expected. That said, demand in the U.S. continues to rise. So the American consumer does not suffer from high prices. Especially since the U.S. has the strongest labor market in 60 years.
The latest macro data show that the Fed has no reason to slow down its policy. So a rise in the U.S. market is premature.
We predict that the Fed's fight against inflation will drag on, because price increases are steady. So the Fed rate will get to 5.25-5.5% and stop there. And at the same time, the regulator will drive the U.S. economy into recession. Otherwise, inflation in the U.S. will not be stopped. Most likely in March at the Fed meeting, officials will be tough. And then the markets will come to their senses.
What will happen to the dollar in 2023.
The dollar itself will be strong. Tough Fed action will keep the DXY near 100 points. It will be difficult to rise above the highs of September, as the policies of other central banks are getting tougher than those of the United States. Just look at the changes in Japan, where the era of super easy money is coming to an end. And the ECB's policy is also tough. So let's talk about the euro area.
What's happening to Europe's economy
Europe's problems are similar to those in the U.S., only the inflation rate in the Union is much higher. Investors and officials are happy to see that price growth in the EU is slowing rapidly: in October, it was 10.6%, but now it's 8.5%.
Eurozone industrial production fell 1.1% in December 2022. The economy is slowing down amid high inflation, which is exactly what the ECB is fighting.
The regulator raised interest rates by 0.5% in early February. The same increase is planned for March. And even then the rate will not stop rising. Such statements from the ECB have been trying to dampen market optimism. Where is the positivity coming from? Recession is likely to be avoided: the energy crisis is gone and the supply chain is recovering.
Since the beginning of the year, euro zone blue chips have been rising as strongly as the U.S. market. But inflation is still high and monetary policy is tight. So it's too early to rejoice.
In addition, the energy crisis can come back to the EU at any time. Because Russia is cutting oil production and OPEC is not going to increase production. Prices will go up - Goldman Sachs predicts oil at $105.
What will happen to the euro in 2023
The European currency looks stronger than the American one. Exactly because the ECB policy now looks tougher than the Fed actions. Which we have already talked about. Now let's move on to another global economy, China.
What's going on with China's economy
There are 2 main topics of conversation in China right now: the opening of the economy after covid restrictions and tensions with the U.S.
China has officially "decisively defeated" COVID. So restrictions in the Celestial Empire should no longer stifle production and disrupt supply chains. China's opening promises to be massive. The UN and IMF expect 4.8% growth, while Morgan Stanley expects 5.7%.
During the lockdowns, the Chinese have accumulated the money to unleash demand. Household deposits exceed 100% of last year's GDP, The Economist noted. Inflation in China rose to 2.1% in January, showing a pickup in demand.
Markets are counting on China to pull the entire global economy up with it. On its own, China has a chance to take off - the covid shackles will fall after all. But external pressures could stifle growth.
High inflation in the U.S. forces the Fed to keep rates high in the economy. And that means business activity will slow against this backdrop, and so will demand for Chinese goods.
We predict that the Chinese central bank may be stiff in its policy. The population has large savings, demand for exports is declining, and inflation is rising. And because of this, China's market growth may slow down. China is now highly dependent on Western demand and it is the main beacon for the Celestial market.
What will happen to the yuan in 2023
The yuan is also a headache and uncertainty. Will China be able to successfully open up? Will there be a global recession? It is still unclear how China will survive U.S. restrictions. The decline in trade with the U.S. is negative for the renminbi.
But a big positive could be the use of the RMB in international trade. First of all oil. The more countries move away from the dollar and euro to the yuan, the stronger it will be.
In the near future the yuan is unlikely to strengthen - there is nothing to strengthen it on. Even it will gradually decline: demand for Chinese goods is decreasing and geopolitical tensions are growing.
World economic outlook for 2023
The outlook for the global economy is not good. Growth is slowing - the problems are starting in the West and dragging the East with them. After all, economies are still very closely integrated, no matter what political slogans about the "polarity" of the world say.
Markets behave ambiguously. And at such moments, distortions and inefficiencies appear - someone doesn't know something, someone doesn't understand something. You can make money or lose money on this.
We make forecasts because we are constantly watching macroeconomics and market data. Don't take them as a signal to act, but as the opinion of our team. But don't forget - look at the economy and markets more broadly, don't let short-term fluctuations distort your perception and your actions.