In the weekly review of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, oil production in the country over the past week did not change and remained at the level of 10.9 million barrels per day. The Ministry of Energy also raised the forecast of average oil production in the country in 2021 to 11.15 million barrels per day. Commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 2.4 million barrels over the past week. At the same time, analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected an increase in inventories by 2.7 million.
The report of the International Energy Agency says that the participants in the OPEC+ oil production reduction deal in February fulfilled their obligations by 112%. Russia, according to the IEA, fulfilled the deal by 93% in February, with production of 9.26 million barrels per day. At the same time, OPEC countries met their quotas by 125%, and non-OPEC countries-only by 89%. In April 2020, the alliance agreed to reduce oil production after demand fell by a quarter due to the global crisis. The decision was made immediately for two years, but with a gradual increase in production.
At the beginning of 2021, the OPEC+ countries ' positions on the strategy regarding production levels since February diverged. Most of the participants of the organization spoke in favor of maintaining the January level of restrictions, while Russia and Kazakhstan supported a gradual increase in production. As a result, a compromise decision was made – all OPEC+ countries maintain the January levels of restrictions for February and March, except for Russia and Kazakhstan. The overall overperformance of the deal in February means that less oil hit the market than planned, and this supports the current uptrend.
EURUSDAs it should be for the market, which is consolidating above the trend line immediately after its breakdown, the bulls confirmed their dominant position, having spent almost six consecutive "black" sessions, stopping only at the resistance of 1.1879-1.1906. A pin-shaped candle was formed from this zone on Friday, slightly " spoiled” by a bullish close (otherwise, it would have been a full-fledged short signal).If the bears are able to confirm the weakness of buyers here (for example, by forming a confident reverse), then we can talk about the beginning of a downward correction, which may continue throughout the current week, up to the support zone of 1.1760-1.1783. In such a correction, the bulls will be able to accumulate sufficient potential for the third wave up, which, according to the classical canons, can be very strong.If we see a breakdown of the 1.1900-1.1906 zone, then for the remaining 3-4 trading days, the bulls will probably be able to add another 70-80 points of profit to their asset, completing the next strong resistance zone of 1.1963-1.1988.Thus, in the case of a bearish close on Monday, we trade until the end of the week to 1.1760-1.1783, and then sharply turn up again. And in the case of the first price closes above 1.1906, you can enter long in the expectation of an increase to 1.1988.GBPUSDThe pound has been growing well over the past week, but it is unlikely that it will be able to pass the most difficult barrier in the form of a resistance zone of 1.3870-1.3908. In order to pass this zone, the market will almost certainly have to form a good incoming correction wave down. In this regard, it is better not to rush with purchases (although I want to), and look at the longs in the 1.3730 zone, where we will find ourselves, with a high probability, in the near future.In this zone, the growth potential will increase sharply, and the necessary stop will decrease. The next upward impulse may be no less weak than the first, so we consider positions from the category "opened and forgot" (set & forget).Whether or not to trade this potential pullback down is a matter of taste and belief: there are many traders who never, for anything, go against the main (or newly formed) trend. But, after all, we are talking about a full-fledged 100 points, so there will be a lot of sense in such a trade.In any case, a more promising and safe tactic will be the waiting tactic, which can be replaced by a simple limit thrown in the 1.3700-1.3730 zone.USDJPYNot much has changed here. And there is little that can change in the coming days – the triangle in which this pair is consolidating is too obvious. There is less and less space left in it, but it is still more than enough for 5-6 day trading sessions.The support of this triangle is the base of 109.427-109.689, and the resistance is the area of 110.271-110.480. Now the transition to the local upward phase is provided, so short-term traders can try to pick up the upward movement, with the strategy "take as much as they give”. And they will give, as we understood, no more than 40-60 points, which in such a market (and for such a relatively low-volatility pair) may seem sufficient.Thus, we trade up to 110.271-110.480, and then sell in the expectation of a new decline to 109.427-109.689. It is difficult to assume the direction in which the triangle will be broken through. And you don't need to. It will be much better to trade this situation, as they say, "in fact".USDCHFThe Swiss franc has not shown such a direct correlation with the USDJPY pair for a long time. Now the picture resembles the "good old days”, when these two tools simply repeated each other, which was used in their trading systems by millions of traders.The compression in the triangle occurs within the support levels (0.9134-0.9150) and resistance levels 0.9192-0.9200. The current phase is ascending, so purchases can be considered for the next few days.Then, after working out the goal in the 0.9192-0.9200 zone, we again consider sales, without being greedy, at the same time, with goals. Other options for movements on this instrument can be studied after the fact that the price goes beyond the consolidation range, which is unlikely to happen before next Monday.WTIA very good and promising rebound down from the descending trend line was confirmed on Friday, when a bearish internal bar was formed. This formation is an independent trading short-setup, but, in the context of a trend, it acquires much more weight.At any moment, the collapse of oil prices is possible. Moreover, if we look far ahead, the very structure of the market now indicates a likely fall to new lows (below the psychological level of $60 per barrel). But we are only considering the weekly range here, so we are not waiting for the asset below the support zone of 65.068-66.621 yet.But do not rush to close in this zone, so as not to lose such a good opportunity for a long position.XAUUSDGold again updated the local maximum, finally turning the chart into a bullish trend. Yes, corrections are still possible (for example, to the previously broken PPZ 1810.75-1817.24 for a retest), but we can already talk here exclusively about working up.The next growth target will be the nearest strong resistance area of 1848.84-1861.61, so trades opened from the 1810.75-1817.24 zone will have a very attractive Risk ratio/Profit.The signal for an intermediate downward correction would be a bearish internal bar following the results of trading on Monday (which is not much time left). But, at any time, the next upward impulse is possible in the direction of 1848.84 and 1861.61. Therefore, we would not advise you to get involved with this kickback – this is obviously a thankless task.If the correction is confirmed, a much safer plan will be to trade up with pending orders from the 1810.75-1817.24 zone.