Last Friday, WTI crude oil fell slightly and reached $71.6 per barrel.
Quotes are held at a high level, reached after a preliminary assessment of the damage from Hurricane Ida. The International Energy Agency last week lowered its forecast for supply growth in 2021 by 150,000 barrels per day, largely due to the effects of the storm. The forecast for demand growth was lowered by 100,000 barrels per day due to the active spread of a new strain of coronavirus. OPEC, like the IEA, lowered its forecast for demand in the third quarter of 2021. However, the agency, unlike OPEC, did not raise the demand estimate in 2022. The alliance revised the forecast of oil demand growth next year upward by 900,000 barrels per day compared to the August estimate. Analysts also note that the number of drilling rigs in the United States is gradually growing. Last week, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by nine units to 512 rigs. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs increased by 10 units, and the number of gas drilling rigs decreased by one. The main increase in drilling occurred in the states of Oklahoma, New Mexico and Texas. According to estimates from the Energy Information Administration, oil production in the United States in September will amount to 10.05 million barrels per day, and in October the figure may increase.
In our forecast, we expect a further pullback of the WTI oil price to the levels of 71.30, 71 and 70.75 dollars per barrel.