WTI Oil forecast for today is 58.5
WTI crude oil fell to the level of $59.55 per barrel.
The meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee, which considered scenarios for actions in the oil market after April, ended unexpectedly quickly. The OPEC+ Technical Committee lowered its estimate of global oil demand growth in 2021 from 5.9 to 5.6 million barrels per day. The global deficit forecast was also lowered to 800,000 barrels per day. The price of oil will stabilize before the meeting-investors expect that exporters will not increase production this time, trying to support the recovery in prices.
Estimates for the first half of the year were again adjusted downwards, mainly due to continued quarantines and new restrictions in many key parts of Europe. In contrast, the outlook for oil demand in the second half of the year remained relatively stable, reflecting expectations of a stronger economic recovery and the positive impact of the vaccination rollout.
Today, a crucial meeting of OPEC will be held, at which the further level of production and quotas of the parties to the agreement will be determined. It is possible that this time OPEC will set production levels for two months at once – May and June, and not for one, as it was previously. According to sources of the Reuters news agency, OPEC+ may again be inclined to maintain production levels and abandon plans to restore it. At the last meeting, the ministers agreed that all parties to the agreement, except Russia and Kazakhstan, will maintain production levels in April. Russia was allowed to restore the indicators by 130,000 barrels per day., Kazakhstan — by 20,000. Similar exceptions were made for these countries in January, when oil production parameters for February and March were discussed.
In the forecast, I expect a decline in WTI oil price to the support 58.5 dollars per barrel.