AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotes

AUD/USD, currency, AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotes

AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.

The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.

AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.

  • Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.
  • Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.

AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.

Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend on

The interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.

Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.

  • If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.
  • Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.

You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/

Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overview

How can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.

Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).

Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.

If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.

Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.

The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.

The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.

If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.

News analysis

Types of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:

  • Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.
  • Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.
  • Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.

Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for today

Commodities and other external factors

The AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.

  • Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.
  • AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.

Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.

All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.

The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.

Trading on AUD USD

As already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.

The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.

Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.

The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.

Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overview

Features of the currency pair

The Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.

The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.

It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.

It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).

Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.

Trends here also coincide quite often:


Gold – Red Price Line

AUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.

Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.

Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and EUR/USD.


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Is Forex a casino? One, but a global difference
Is Forex a casino? One, but a global difference You can often hear from people who have lost money on forex that this is a casino. Well, let's figure it out and look at the root of the issue.What does a trader do? He opens a position hoping to earn.What does a casino player do? He makes a bet in the hope of winning.What does an ordinary businessman do? He buys a barge of bananas and at the same time hopes that half will not rot on the way and, by selling the rest at a higher price, he will make a profit.What unites all 3 categories? Risks and risk management!We do not trade currency pairs and exchange instruments on the market! We trade forecasts and probabilities of the occurrence of an event.Now imagine a card player who sees the opponent's cards. How many times do you think his chances of hitting the jackpot increase? And add to this the opportunity to put as much money on the line as you are willing to lose painlessly. Or don't bet at all if you see that the opponent's cards are stronger. At the same time, you can withdraw your money and exit the game at any time. This is what distinguishes stock speculation from casinos. A professional market speculator has the opportunity to risk his money only when the probabilities and chances are in his favor!What happens next? Where does money come from and where does it go in forex? Yes, they are not going anywhere. They just flow from pocket to pocket. I mean the pockets of traders, not the pockets of unscrupulous brokers who initially set out to rob you (we have already discussed this in a separate article).It's all about emotions and banal laziness. Success in forex, as in any other business, comes only to those who are used to working hard and hard. To those who polish market skills and do difficult, and sometimes tedious work every day.What does a casino player do? He risks his money on contradictory odds, relying on luck and luck. And what does a professional trader do? He risks his money only when the chances and trading opportunities are in his favor, while not forgetting to manage his risks (this is probably the only thing we can manage 100% in forex).As a result, those who invest their time, energy and effort in mastering stock trading receive rewards from those who do not. These lazy people are the loudest and shout that forex resembles a casino.This is how our life works. And what about our life? Our life is a game!Read more: What is Forex and how does it operateGiven all of the above, what is the conclusion?For those who came to the market for fast money, forex is a casino. And for those who came seriously and for a long time – this is work as work.
Jul 22, 2022
Why investors choose to earn money on PAMM accounts
Why investors choose to earn money on PAMM accounts Earning on PAMM accounts is interesting, first of all, to those who have liquid capital. Money, as you know, should work. And make money. You can, of course, use the good old way and put your savings on deposit. But, alas, decent banks don't need money now ... It's ridiculous to say – a famous French brand with stars flying up on a green background now has 1.5% per annum on deposits in dollars. It's like putting it in a safe for storage… So the alternative in the form of PAMM accounts is very useful now.PAMM account (Percentage Allocation Management Module) – this is a kind of trust management. The name speaks for itself – you trust a Professional to manage your capital. With the development of banking and IT technologies, some convenient functions that were previously unavailable have become possible. For example, the manager now does not need to press 5 buttons and his sixth one if he has 5 accounts in management. All deposits are combined into one pool. Moreover, the size of investments from each investor can be completely different! Profit (as well as loss) is distributed proportionally to the contribution.PAMM technology appeared a long time ago. The investor can observe the actions of the manager in real time. Moreover, there is a function of instant disconnection of a separate account from the manager's management. Each client can individually set the maximum available drawdown level and stop loss size for his deposit. In addition, the bank guarantees that your funds will be available to the manager only for trading operations! Agree, this is important!In addition to the trading platform itself, the broker provides professional reporting for traders and clients. And also makes payments between project participants.Everything is worked out and reliable. But! There is a big "but", which I, as a professional and just as an honest person, cannot but say. Earning on PAMM accounts is an activity with a fairly high degree of risk. This is not a safe ... do not believe anyone who promises guaranteed profitability in this case. Or a profit of 100% per month. It's impossible!  Such "managers" have seriously lame money management and risk management.Read more: What is a PAMM accountWe have come to the point where we started – the capital should be liquid. In no case, do not take a loan, do not mortgage real estate and do not use the last money for such an investment.
Jul 22, 2022
Forex problems – what is the "Burnout Effect"
Forex problems – what is the \ From love to hate is one step.This is what our conversation will be about today.At the beginning of your trading career, you are burning with the market, you are interested in everything and you are ready to work 20 hours a day. You are full of optimistic hopes, expectations of freedom and financial independence. That's great!But at some point…You are no longer able to trade consistently and profitably. You understand that trading, the market and everything connected with it, are tired of you to hell! There comes a state in which you completely lose interest in forex, feel accumulated emotional and psychological fatigue and physical exhaustion. You don't want anything and nothing pleases you. You start hating yourself, the market and the whole world around you (as if he is to blame for something).Is this condition familiar?I "congratulate" you! You have a "burnout" effect, you have fallen into one of the psychological traps of trading and you have forex problems.If you think that you are alone in your worries, I can reassure you – the vast majority of traders have been through a similar state. Someone had the strength to overcome this trap in forex, and someone gave up trading forever…Personally, during the time of trading, which is almost 13 years, I wanted to quit forex 2 or 3 times and send everything to hell. And the number of guys with whom I have been in close contact and who have given up trading is in the dozens!But it's not that bad.  Let's dig into the depths and try to understand together WHY a trader's emotional burnout occurs, HOW to recognize its symptoms and WHAT to do.To treat the disease, you need to know the reasons that led to it, diagnose the first signs of a possible disease in time and prescribe the right treatment.Read more: Emotions in the market – how to get rid of them?Causes of "burnout"Monotony of trading. Trading is a difficult, boring, monotonous activity. Every single day you, as a robot, do the same thing. Market analysis – preparation of a trading plan – implementation of the transaction. No creativity for you, no flight of fancy for you, no diverse tasks for you. In a word – routine!Market uncertainty. It should be understood that you are not trading currency pairs, but the probability of the occurrence of a particular scenario (the price will go up or down). And no matter how well you do your homework and preparatory work, there is always a chance that your script will not work. And this in turn leads to the feeling that you are not in control of the situation, do not achieve the desired result and as a result – disappointment.Workaholism and isolation. Trading is an individual activity. Forex works 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. And if you follow the market all this time with a break of 2-3 hours for sleep, then you simply do not have time and energy for everything else. Your whole life is spent at the monitor screen, in fear of missing your best deal. As a result, you sacrifice other areas of your life for the sake of trading. Turning into a kind of reclusive recluse, who has only charts in front of his eyes.Pessimism in life. If a negative view of yourself and the world around you incinerates you from the inside and leads you into wild despair, you give yourself an internal installation at the start that you are a loser and you will not succeed. Thoughts materialize, and you get what you were thinking about – another failure.Health problems. Incorrect regime, problems with sleep and chronic lack of sleep, lack of physical activity (you spend the whole day in a chair) sooner or later lead to health problems. And when there is no health, nothing pleases, you don't want anything and you don't need anything.Symptoms of "burnout" at an early stageYou are haunted by the feeling that a new day will not bring anything good, that a new trade (even before the opening of the transaction) will be unsuccessful.It is morally difficult for you to trade. There is a feeling that you are wasting time and effort on a completely useless activity.You feel physically tired. You are deprived of vitality and energy.You are tired of everything you do. The idea that you have to trade again depresses and irritates you.You lock yourself in and stop communicating with your family and friends.You are trying to get at least some kind of buzz from life and begin to "jam", "drink" or "sniff out" problems.Read more: Trader's suicide. Psychology of trading or what to do if you lose on Forex?What to do with "burnout"?Difficult question! And there are no universal solutions. Emotional burnout in trading is dangerous because in the wake of disappointment in trading and forex problems, you can completely ruin your whole life. Therefore, it is necessary to solve this problem in a complex.I will try to outline banal tips that we all understand and know, but do not always follow.In relation to tradingFirst of all, we need to stop trading. Maybe for a week, maybe for a month, or maybe for six months. Then, when you cool down and relax, take a piece of paper in a calm atmosphere and formulate your goals, objectives and expectations:What are your trading goals for the month, for the week, for the day? Mathematics is a strong thing and helps in setting goals perfectly. For example, you want to earn 20% per month from your deposit on forex. Divide by 4 weeks, we get 5% per week. Divide by 5 working days, we get 1% per day.Ask yourself the question, how realistic and doable are the goals you have set? Will you be able to achieve them by following your own rules of money management and risk management?What changes do you need to make to your trading system in order to return to trading and trade without stress? For example, reduce the size of a position, stop or profit to a value that is comfortable for you. Review your market analysis, adjust the definition of entry and exit points and position tracking.Where can you find communication, support and feedback with other traders? As I have already said, you are not alone – 95% of traders have experienced the same problems in forex to one degree or another and have gone through the "burnout" effect.Applied to life in generalLife is multifaceted and interesting, you should not focus on one trade. Set yourself clear boundaries. Every day, set aside a certain time for trading, and then stop and turn off the computer. Set aside time for sports (when was the last time you were in the gym?), get a hobby, chat with family and friends, and just walk in the fresh air. Occupy your brain with thoughts about something good and pleasant, besides trading.Read more: Why do 90% of traders lose on Forex and binary options?And I am 100% sure, then you will not burn in the market and you will not need firefighters!
Jul 20, 2022
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