We must express our gratitude to the Italian mathematician Leonardo from Pisa, or as they say – the Pisan (1170-1250). He was better known to his friends by the nickname "Fibonacci" - the son of Bonacci (he also responded to "Bigollo", "slacker"). His "Book about the Abacus", written in 1202, glorified him (the Abacus is a counting board).
What are Fibonacci Numbers in simple words
If you put a couple of rabbits in an enclosed space, how many rabbits will they be able to produce in a certain time, given that they produce one per month and the newly born themselves can become parents at the age of one month?
The resulting infinite progression (now called "Fibonacci numbers") looks like this: 0,1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597…
You can see that the Fibonacci numbers are consistently growing. Each subsequent number is equal to the sum of the previous two: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 etc. The relationship between these numbers is intriguing. Firstly, starting from the number 5, any of them is about 1,618 times larger than the previous one. Secondly, any of the numbers is approximately 0.618 of the following.
Forex traders started using Fibonacci levels as soon as they noticed that asset price fluctuations often repeat this numerical sequence. Moreover, the repetition was so clear that the Fibonacci indicator was built into the standard settings of the most popular information and trading terminal, MetaTrader 4 and 5, on which the vast majority of traders work.
How to use Fibonacci Levels on Forex
Traders use popular tools:
- Lines
- Arcs
- Fan lines
- Time zones
- Expansion
Most of the main charting programs include Fibonacci retracement levels. In some of the most "advanced" ones, "arcs", "fan lines" and time periods are implemented. For now, we'll stop at the Lines.
Here's what you need to know about them:
- On the 0-100 scale, the Fibonacci ratios are calculated as 23.6, 38.2, 50.0, 61.8 and 76.4%. These ratios are considered the main indicator (predicting possible future price movement), the price often ricochets from these levels.
- The indicator visualizes these levels on the asset price chart and allows you to get an idea of its future movement. If you like the manual mode, then select the correction levels display function in the program or on the price chart. Start at the bottom of the trend and drag the cursor to its top point. You will see five horizontal lines reflecting the levels of 0, 38.2, 50, 60.8 and 100% of the price movement, or trend length (in some programs, a line of 23.6% is added).
- These lines can act as support or resistance levels, depending on whether currency pairs or stocks and stock market indices are traded above or below them.
- The longer the timeframe you work with, the more clearly the set levels will be triggered.
Thus, all that is required of a trader is to find a fading trend, correctly set the Fibonacci series, wait for confirmation and open an order. There are many ways to use this numerical series in trading, in our material we will consider the most universal, which will help to make a profit on most assets, with moderate market volatility.
Read more: The basis of trading: Support and Resistance levels
How to build Fibonacci lines on a chart
Indicators are among the standard ones on MT4, to install it, you need to select the "Insert" tab – "Fibonacci" on the top panel:
Select the "Retracement" and now they need to be stretched on the price chart. It depends on how well you do it, how profitable your work will be. In order to correctly set the Fibonacci correction lines, it is necessary:
- identify the trend that has changed to the opposite;
- open the indicator;
- draw a grid along the entire length of the changed trend from the point where it dried up and began to change direction to the point where it originated.
The resulting field should look like this:
The red thin dotted line marks the trend that served as the basis for building Fibonacci levels in MT4, the yellow horizontal lines mark just the support and resistance levels that serve as reversal points for corrections and minor trends, they are subscribed to percentage numerical values.
Many insist that it is necessary to stretch the grid exclusively from left to right, but as experience shows, there is no special difference in this, and if you have a sufficiently "stuffed hand", then you will get your share of the profit anyway.
The blue circles marked the main points at which the price retreated for consolidation. Each such circle could serve as a marker for entering the market and making a profit for a trader. This chart shows the movement of the silver price, the timeframe of the 1H chart.
In order to correctly set the Fibonacci sequence for the asset you are interested in, you need to wait for a change in the direction of price movement, and apply a grid, focusing on the dried-up trend.
Many traders insist that the dried up trend should have a structure of 5 waves. This method allows you to eliminate false signals, and the Fibonacci lines in this case will work with even greater accuracy. Here is an example of this approach:
The numbers indicate 5 waves on the trend, which served as the basis for the construction of the Fibonacci series. The blue fill indicates the boundaries of the trend that served as the basis for the constructions.
Read more: Wave Analysis in Forex
How Fibonacci levels work and how to use them in trading
The Forex market is good because there are no clear, academic rules for working here. Therefore, if you want to test a strategy using Fibonacci retracement levels, you can adapt it to your trading style.
Here are the main points on which the author's strategy is based:
- The grid is based on a four-hour chart, based on a global trend, which can be formed in a period from a month to six months.
- An hourly chart is used for daily work, and a once-built Fibonacci sequence also serves for up to six months.
- The average term of an open order is 2-3 days, but in some cases it may exceed a week.
- All transactions are concluded in the direction of the current trend, and the opposite of the one according to which the numerical series was built.
- The Fibonacci series works perfectly on gold and silver. Of the currency pairs, GBP/USD showed itself very well, and when the situation in Britain stabilizes, it will show itself again.
- This strategy does not work very well with the currency of states that have a firm link to oil, especially in the last two years.
You don't have to follow these points at all – everyone sees the market in their own way, and the main thing for success is to find the system that will match your perception and generate income. It is quite possible to use Fibonacci levels on Forex for scalping, but it should be borne in mind that the smaller the timeframe of the chart, the more false signals there will be. Therefore, it is better to combine this strategy with additional indicators for such trading.
A pair of stochastic oscillators with standard settings of 9-3-3 and 21-9-9 or a regular moving average with a period of 50 shows itself well in this role.
Level of importance
Many investors believe that not every level of the series fulfills the price chart in the same way, and have identified such a pattern:
23.6 - the level is considered weak, a clear confirmation is required to work with it;
38.2 is an important value, most likely the asset price will ricochet from it, for subsequent consolidation;
50 is something in between the previous two, there is a high probability that the level will work as it should;
61.8 is a strong level, the same as 38.2;
80.9 is also a strong level.
If you rely on their strength in your work on these levels, work exclusively in the direction of the trend, filter false signals using some simple additional indicator and do not fall on small timeframes, then your work on the Forex market will be highly profitable, and trading risks are small. Of course, at the same time, we must not forget about the basic rules of risk management and the psychology of trading.
Fibonacci levels on the stock market
Since so many traders are guided by Fibonacci retracement levels, some cases of support/resistance may be self-fulfilling forecasts. And yet it is simply amazing how often stocks moving within the framework of an uptrend roll back to the level of the Fibonacci correction, and then bounce back from it. Or, falling during a downtrend, they temporarily recover to the level of the Fibonacci correction, and then continue their fall.
Some traders use "phibs" as a guide to determine the level of a stop order. For example, they place their stops about a quarter of a point (or so, depending on the volatility of stock prices) below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous high.
How to use the Fibonacci sequence as profitably as possible
In fact, in trading, it is not so important how many successful and profitable trades you have made. It is much more important how many times you made mistakes, and how you reacted to your mistakes. And it doesn't really matter if you use Fibonacci levels in MT4, or have connected the Ichimoku indicator. The main thing is not to maximize profits, but to minimize losses. This is done quite simply, the main thing is to follow several rules in trading:
- never use one trading strategy, combine 2-3 simple systems;
- do not over-trade, do not try to open orders as often as possible, focus on quality, not quantity;
- try to work on timeframes of at least 1H, even if it seems boring and unprofitable - successful investments often cause yawns, not applause, as Warren Buffett said;
- never forget about the economic calendar and the time of the release of the main news of the trading day, so as not to become a victim of the trend that unfolded after the publication;
- keep statistics of transactions - carefully record all your actions in the market, this will help to collect data on what you are most successful in, and what needs to be tightened;
- increase your level of experience and knowledge – any book you notice about the interbank market should be of interest to you.
Remember these simple points and try to exclude disturbing emotions from trading.
How to use Fibonacci Levels
The trading strategy based on the Fibonacci numerical series is simple enough to combine it with other indicators without unnecessary confusion on the chart, but at the same time it is effective and profitable.
To build a grid on the terminal chart using the numerical levels of a medieval mathematician, and find out the levels of support and resistance that will appear – this task is quite possible for anyone, and there is nothing complicated here.
Trading using this system, do not slide into small timeframes, filter false signals using any additional indicator and follow the trend. So you will definitely achieve success!