ALCOA Trading forecasts and signals

The market the day beforeThe session on April 21, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 dropped 1.48% to 4,394 points, the Dow Jones lost 1.05%, the high-tech Nasdaq adjusted 2.07%. All eleven sectors included in the broad market index closed in the red. The most noticeable drop was demonstrated by the energy sectors (-3.10%) and communications (-2.41%).Company newsUnited Airlines (UAL: +9.3%) reported rather weak profit and revenue for the first quarter, but presented a confident guidance suggesting a return to profitability in the second quarter on the back of strong demand, despite high fuel costs and a drop in traffic by about 19% compared to 2019. The company also notes signs of a rapid recovery in the business travel segment and expects positive dynamics in international transportation.According to the results presented, Tesla (TSLA; +3.2%) was able to improve EPS, revenue and margin in the first quarter, noting some assistance from regulatory authorities. The company has resumed production in Shanghai, but so far with a limited volume. Management has stated its intentions to increase production by 50% compared to 2021, although there are concerns about problems in supply chains.Alcoa (AA; -16.9%) generated a negative FCF as a result of acquisitions in the reporting period, which led to a slowdown in the implementation of the buy back program (only $ 75 million of shares were repurchased). The guidance for 2022 on the shipment of bauxite was reduced. We consider the strong demand forecast as optimistic.We expectDuring the reporting period, the banks presented results better than the preliminary estimates of experts, but lowered their forecasts for the second quarter. JPMorgan considers market-wide expectations for the current reporting season in the US to be "excessively pessimistic" and predicts that most issuers will present stronger results. The total revenue of microprocessor manufacturers in 2021 amounted to $595 billion (+26.3%), AMD (+68.6%) and Qualcomm (+53.4%) were the industry leaders.According to FactSet, at the moment, the profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies for the first quarter is 6.5% compared to the expected 4.7%. Almost 80% of companies have exceeded consensus expectations for EPS, which is below the five-year average of 83%. Collectively, the companies increased profits by 9.1%, which is slightly better than the five-year average of 8.9%. Important topics on the agenda of the last two weeks were the following: the pace and timing of normalization and resumption of economic growth, inflationary pressure, disruptions in supply chains, strong corporate and consumer balances, the incidence rate in China, the cycle of tightening of PREP, increased provisions by banks, plans of companies to raise prices and optimize costs.The yields of two- and 10-year treasuries increased by 10 bps and 5 bps, to 2.68% and 2.90%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year securities increased by three points, to 2.91%.Trading on April 21 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in different directions. China's CSI 300 added 0.44%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.21%, Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.63%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 1.29% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $106.6 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1945 per troy ounceIn our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4,350 -4,450 points.MacrostatisticsImportant macro statistics are not expected to be published todaySentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 45.Technical pictureThe S&P broke above 4,500 points, however, having not received support, it did not stay at this mark. As a result, by now the index has lost a significant part of its growth since the beginning of the week and is trading near support at the level of 4,400 points. The RSI remains in the neutral zone, the MACD indicator also indicates the parity of "bulls" and "bears". Against the background of strong reporting by major players and especially in anticipation of the releases of the results of companies in the technology sector, the broad market index may return to the green zone, rising to the 200-day moving average located at 4490 ...

Net profit of the American aluminum producer Alcoa Corp. in the 1st quarter of 2022, it amounted to $469 million, or $2.49 per share. This indicator has grown almost 2.7 times compared to the same period last year. Alcoa's quarterly revenue increased by 15% to $3.29 billion, but did not meet the market consensus forecast of $3.44 billion.Company's revenue growth is caused by a jump in prices for metallurgical products.We maintain a positive long-term vision regarding the company's shares, being aware that the repetition of a strong quarterly report in the following periods will largely depend on market conditions, which are likely to change not in favor of the company. We recommend holding the company's shares, as well as refraining from buying investors who do not have Alcoa in their portfolio at the moment, in anticipation of a correction in the market.Alcoa shares on the NYSE on April 21 before the start of trading fall by 6.59%, to $81.20 per ...

The market the day beforeTrading on December 14 on the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 index dropped 0.75% to 4,634 points. The Dow Jones is down 0.30% and the Nasdaq is down 1.14%. Almost all industries closed in the red zone, and technology companies (-1.64%) and the real estate segment (-1.27%) became the leaders of the fall. The financial sector looked better than the market (+0.62%).Company newsCentene (CNC: +4.7%) has concluded a deal with an activist investor. Under its terms, the current CEO Michael Neidorf will retire in 2022.The CEO of Uber Technologies (UBER: +4.3%) said that the company's results for the fourth quarter will be at the upper limits of the predicted ranges.Alcoa Corp. shares (AA: +5.6%) were included in the S&P MidCap 400 index.ExpectationsStatistics regarding infections with the omicron strain COVID-19 do not inspire serious concerns today. According to the latest data, Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are able to prevent a severe course of the disease. In this regard, investors' attention has shifted to the situation related to inflationary threats.The producer price index for November exceeded the consensus by 0.3 in a month-on-month ratio and increased by 0.8%. In annual comparison, the indicator increased by 9.6% with a forecast of 9.2%. Due to the increase in inflationary pressure, the Fed at the current meeting may consider the scenario of increased taping and a more intensive rate hike next year than originally planned.At the same time, the debt market is still weakly responding to the latest inflation data. The yield of two-year US government bonds increased by 2 basis points (bp), to 0.66%, and the yield of ten-year treasuries rose by only 1 bp, to 1.44%.We believe that the stock market will remain under pressure today due to the risks of activation of the Fed's actions aimed at curbing inflation.Most of the sites in Southeast Asia closed in the red. China's CSI 300 declined by 0.87%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell by 0.91% and only Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 0.10%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adding 0.61% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are quoted at $73.7 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1770.4 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4600-4650 points.MacrostatisticsRetail sales volume data for November will be published today (consensus: +0.9% mom after +1.7% a month earlier).Technical pictureThe S&P 500 changed its direction of movement, rushing to the lower border of the ascending channel and approaching the nearest support near the 50-day moving average. The RSI indicator, which has dropped to 50 points, indicates the probability of a sideways trend. The MACD gives mixed signals, canceling the upward reversal.In sightThe construction company Lennar Corporation (LEN) will present its quarterly report this Wednesday. The consensus forecast assumes an increase in its revenue by 24.6% YoY, to $8.506 billion, with an increase in EPS by 47.2% yoy, to $4.15. Lennar is the second largest developer in the United States after D.R. Horton, Inc. The report of the sector leader for the third quarter exceeded forecasts due to the continued high real estate prices and demand for it, which gives reason to expect corresponding results from ...