Caterpillar Trading forecasts and signals

The market the day beforeThe trading session on June 8 on American stock exchanges ended with a decline in the main indices. The S&P 500 dropped 1.08% to 4,116 points, the Nasdaq lost 0.73%, and the Dow Jones adjusted 0.81%. Most sectors closed in the red zone. The real estate sector (-2.40%) and raw materials companies (-2.08%) showed a noticeable drop. Issuers from the energy industry showed positive dynamics (+0.22%) due to the growth of oil quotes.Company newsDuring the investor Day, the CEO of Spotify (SPOT: +6.03%) stated that the podcast segment could potentially generate an annual profit margin of 40-50%. The audiobook direction is expected to provide 40% marginality.Caterpillar (CAT: +1.19%) raised its quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.20 per share. The forward yield will be 2.09% per annum.General Motors (GM: -1.77%) will begin production of the Chevrolet Tracker SUV in Argentina next month.We expectThe pressure in the logistics chains is gradually decreasing against the background of unloading ports in Shanghai and reducing delays in deliveries. Some experts note that transport activity has recovered to 80% of the level that was observed before the introduction of quarantine. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect that freight traffic can normalize within two weeks. Amid the easing of quarantine restrictions in China, investor sentiment towards emerging markets is noticeably improving. At the same time, on June 8, oil quotes rose by 2.50%, approaching the recently reached highs, as market participants expect that the revival of economic activity in China will ensure high demand for black gold this year.However, the rise in hydrocarbon prices in the context of the energy crisis, coupled with the negative impact of geopolitical tensions, continue to provoke an acceleration of inflation in the world. Taking into account these factors, the World Bank (WB) has presented an updated forecast for the expansion of the global economy in 2022, lowering the expected pace to 2.9% compared with the January estimate of 4.1%. This implies a slowdown in global GDP growth by half after the 5.7% achieved in 2021. It is predicted that the peak of inflation will occur in the middle of this year, but price pressure will remain high. The World Bank also revised the forecast of GDP growth in the United States for the current year: the estimate was lowered by 1.2 percentage points (pp), to 2.5%, after 5.7% last year. The same indicator for China was adjusted down by 0.8 percentage points, to 4.3%, after an increase of 8.1% in 2021. The forecast of the indicator for the eurozone worsened by 1.7 percentage points, to 2.5%, against 5.4% a year earlier.The indices of the stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region in the trading session on June 8 showed weak dynamics. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.04%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.81%, China's CSI 300 lost 1.05%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 0.25% since the opening of trading.The price of Brent crude oil futures rose to $123 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,851 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4070-4140 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 40.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 was unable to continue the rebound and is still trading in the range of 4070-4150 points. The RSI remains near the neutral level, and the MACD indicates a weakening of the bullish momentum. We will probably continue to see consolidation in the market ahead of the Fed meeting next week. The nearest support is located at the level of 4060 ...

The market the day beforeThe session on May 17, the main American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 2.02% to 4,088 points, the Dow Jones gained 1.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.76%. Producers of consumer goods looked worse than the market (-1.15%). Technology companies (+2.91%), raw materials (+2.86%) and financial (+2.69%) sectors became the leaders of growth.Company newsPlug Power Inc (PLUG: +14.00%) has received an order for the supply of an electrolysis plant for the production of green hydrogen with a capacity of up to 100 thousand tons per year.Coinbase Global Inc (COIN: +13.45%) has postponed its plans to triple the number of employees in 2022.Caterpillar Inc (CAT: +2.85%) announced that the Board of Directors approved a new $15 billion share repurchase program.We expectOn the eve of the S&P 500, almost 4% exceeded the closing minimum since the beginning of the year, which was set last Thursday. One of the factors supporting the uptrend was the expectations associated with the removal of the lockdown in China. Shanghai has not reported new cases of COVID-19 infection outside quarantine zones for three days in a row. This gives grounds to expect the recovery of production volumes of the largest companies to the levels of the beginning of the year. Hong Kong plans to ease quarantine restrictions this week. Japan intends to open entry to small groups of tourists by the end of May.Another important news event yesterday was an interview with the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Wall Street Journal. The chairman of the regulator, in an interview with reporters, confirmed his intention to raise interest rates more actively, if necessary, in order to stimulate a more noticeable slowdown in inflation. At the same time, Powell noted that if inflation does decrease, the tightening of monetary policy will be more moderate. Plans were also confirmed to raise the rate by 50 bps at the next two FOMC meetings. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve stressed that its increase by 75 bps. not discussed yet.The yield of 10-year treasuries since yesterday's trading increased by 9 bps, to 2.97%, for two-year securities, the yield increased by 10 bps, 2.68%, for 30-year securities it reached 3.16%.Trading on May 18 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 0.94%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.17%, only China's CSI 300 declined by 0.35%. EuroStoxx 50 has been losing a symbolic 0.08% since opening.Brent crude futures are quoted at $111.93 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1818.20 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4070-4120 points.MacrostatisticsToday, data on the number of construction permits issued in the United States for April will be published (consensus: 1,812 million after 1,870 million in March).Sentiment IndexThe market sentiment index rose by 1 point to 36.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 remains above the support level of 3,860 points. The RSI indicator is still close to the oversold zone, and the MACD may be giving a signal for the beginning of an upward trend. These factors may mean continued growth in the upcoming trading ...

The Board of Directors of Caterpillar, the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, has approved a share repurchase program worth up to $15 billion.Since 2017, the company has annually achieved financial targets and as a result generated free cash flow of $26 billion. Caterpillar also plans to return virtually all of its free cash flow to shareholders over time.Caterpillar shares on the NYSE on May 17 rose by 2.58% to $213.09 per ...