Snap Trading forecasts and signals

The loss of Snap, the owner of the popular Snapchat messenger in the United States, amounted to $0.02 per share in the 2nd quarter of 2022. The consensus of analysts expected half the loss ($0.01 per share), and in the 2nd quarter of 2021, for comparison, Snap received not a loss, but a profit of $ 0.1 per share. The number of active daily users increased over the year to 347 million from 293 million compared to the forecast of 344.2 million. Snap also announced a share buyback program worth up to $500 million.The issuer itself, in a letter to shareholders, noted that the company was not satisfied with the financial results for the 2nd quarter of this year, which turned out to be more difficult for it than expected.The reason for disappointing both analysts and the issuer of Snap's weak results were difficult macroeconomic conditions, reduced customer advertising costs and increased competition from other messengers and social networks, primarily TikTok.On the postmarket, Snap's stock quotes fell by 26.8% due to weak results. The shares of other social networks and companies associated with online advertising also began to decline. On average, they have already lost from 3 to 7% in ...

The market the day beforeThe session on May 24, the main American stock exchanges ended mainly in the red zone. The S&P 500 fell 0.81% to 3,941 points, the Dow Jones gained 0.15%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.35%. Producers of cyclical consumer goods looked worse than the market (-2.58%). Utility companies (+2.01%) and consumer sector enterprises (+1.66%) became the leaders of growth.Company newsRevenue and profit of AutoZone Inc (AZO: +5.82%) for the third fiscal quarter exceeded the consensus of Wall Street experts.Snap Inc (SNAP: -43.08%) expects revenue and EBITDA for the second quarter to be below the previously published guidance.Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL: -10.30%) is in talks to sell its Seabourn brand.We expectThe stock market is still under pressure from various factors. On May 24, some large companies (Snap Inc, Best Buy Co Inc, Abercrombie & Fitch Co) lowered their revenue forecasts, which alerted investors. In addition, April data on the sale of new homes in the United States at the level of 591 thousand turned out to be much weaker than the consensus of expectations, which assumed an increase to 750 thousand against 709 thousand in March. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for May reached a three-month low amid rising commodity prices. Finally, market participants are also deeply concerned about the strengthening of quarantine measures in some areas of China, despite the gradual resumption of the work of manufacturing companies in Shanghai. Beijing intends to support the activity of businesses and consumers through additional measures, including tax breaks, deferred loan repayments and some others.The yield of 10-year treasuries decreased by 10 bps to 2.76% compared to yesterday's session, for two-year securities - by 11 bps to 2.50%, for 30-year securities it reached 2.97%.Trading on May 25 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 0.26%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.58%, China's CSI 300 rose by 0.61%. EuroStoxx 50 has been rising by 0.28% since opening.Brent crude futures are quoted at $113.56 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,865.10 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3920-3970 points.MacrostatisticsData on the volume of orders for durable goods for April will be published today. The forecast assumes an increase of 0.6% mom versus an increase of 0.8% in March.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped by one point to 33.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 remains above the support level of 3,860 points. The RSI indicator is still close to the oversold zone, and the MACD may signal a trend reversal. These factors may indicate extremely low current levels of the broad market index, growth is possible in the upcoming trading ...

Shares of the American company Snap on the postmarket on May 24 fell by more than 30% after the CEO said that the company does not expect to meet the quarterly forecast due to deteriorating economic conditions. According to him, revenues and adjusted EBITDA will be below the lower limit of the forecast for the 2nd quarter of this year. Earlier, the company stated that it expects revenue growth in the 2nd quarter by 20%-25% compared to last year, and EBITDA – up to $ 50 million.Sharp also announced that it will slow down the pace of hiring new employees and will look for additional opportunities to save money in the remainder of the budget for 2022.Quotes from other social networks and companies dependent on advertising also declined amid the news.Snap shares on the NYSE before opening on May 24 are falling by 27.9%, to $16.2 per ...

The American company Sharp has introduced its first pocket drone for selfies called Pixy, the development of which began several years ago. The drone works with the Snapchat application and it does not have a remote control: it moves along a predetermined trajectory, there are four of them in total. There is no memory card slot in the device, and the photos taken are transmitted over the network to the smartphone's memory for subsequent placement in Snapchat Memories.The weight of the drone is 101 g with a replaceable battery. The dimensions of the device are 131.7 × 106 × 17.6 mm. Pixy sales have already started in the USA and in France.Snap shares on the NYSE on April 28 rose by 6.35%, on the premarket they are adjusted by 2.57%, to $28.07 per ...

The American company Snap did not meet analysts' expectations for profit and sales in the 1st quarter, and also predicted disappointing revenue growth in the current one. The net loss was 22 cents per share, compared with the consensus forecast of 17 cents per share. Revenue of $1.06 billion was mostly in line with expectations. The number of daily active users increased by 18% year-on-year to 332 million, compared with the consensus forecast of 331 million.According to Snap's CEO, the first quarter turned out to be more difficult than the company expected due to unforeseen macroeconomic conditions. Some advertisers suspended their campaigns in February-March.Snap shares fell 4.36% to $29.42 per share on April ...

High turbulence on stock markets, ambiguous macro statistics and expectations of the decisions of the March Fed meeting somewhat distracted investors from the passing reporting season. And yet the quarterly results of the largest issuers, in particular Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Snap, remain in the focus of attention of market participants. This is evidenced by significant movements in the quotations of these companies. In my opinion, the current reporting season is especially interesting because at its end, it is likely that it will be possible to fix the change of the leader in profitability among the sectors.To date, the results of companies from the S&P 500 are mostly better than investors' expectations. In particular, as of February 8, 58% of issuers included in the broad market index reported an increase in revenue and earnings per share (EPS) by 16.5% and 9%, exceeding consensus by 5% and 29.5%, respectively. Although forecasts of a slowdown in the growth of financial metrics are generally coming true, it is important to note that investors were initially overly conservative in their forecasts. Thus, the market consensus released on September 30, 2021 assumed that in the first quarter of 2022, the EPS of companies will increase by 4.6%, and the latest forecast includes an increase of 5.3%.In the sectoral context, the dynamics is quite expected. At the beginning of the year, I noted that the best indicators will be demonstrated by the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as manufacturers of secondary necessities. The strongest growth (+25.7%) since the beginning of the year was shown by the energy sector (XLE). Especially interesting were the reports of Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), Valero Energy (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX). The results of all these companies exceeded expectations while maintaining prospects for further growth. Valero completed the modernization of the St. refinery in the third quarter. Charles, to increase the annual production of ecodiesel by 400 million gallons. This is especially important due to the increased demand for ecological fuel, the output of which increased by 158% YoY in October-December, to 1.6 million gallons per day.The sale of oil from state reserves will put pressure on its value and on the quotes of producing companies. At the same time, refiners, such as Phillips 66, will only benefit from the additional supply of hydrocarbons, as well as from high gas and electricity prices from competitors from Europe and Asia.Of the issuers that have not yet reported, Holly Frontier (HFC) is of the greatest interest, which in November closed a deal to purchase a refinery with a capacity of 149 thousand barrels per day, increasing total refining assets by 37%. Given this, we are waiting for a very strong HFC report, which will be released on February 23.Of course, the growth of quotations of energy companies is largely due to the rally in oil prices. At the moment, they are at local highs, and many investment houses expect that Brent will rise above $ 100 per barrel. We are more conservative in our forecasts, so we expect a seasonal decline in oil and petroleum products consumption. At the same time, in our opinion, the fundamental attractiveness of the sector on the horizon of three to six weeks, that is, during the period of maximum uncertainty of the current year, will remain.More detailed analyses of the most relevant investment ideas are contained in the analytical materials of our company. This information can also be obtained from your investment ...

The market the day beforeOn February 4, trading on American stock exchanges ended mainly in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 0.52% to 4501 points, the Dow Jones declined 0.06%, and the Nasdaq added 1.58%. The cyclical consumer goods sector showed the best dynamics (+3.74%) thanks to the Amazon (AMZN) report. The outsiders were issuers from the raw materials industry (-1.72%) due to pressure on chemical and pulp industrial companies.Company newsSnap (SNAP: +58.8%) exceeded investors' expectations in terms of revenue, EBITDA, DAU and ARPU, which looks especially advantageous against the background of a weak Meta (FB) report.Amazon.com (AMZN: +13.5%) demonstrated operating profit above consensus, despite increased costs, and noted the most confident results of the AWS segment.Take-Two Interactive (TTWO: +7.4%) announced the active development of the game Grand Theft Auto 6.ExpectationsThe January report on the US labor market triggered a sell-off in the bond market along the entire yield curve. At the same time, investors doubt that the financial regulator will decide to raise the rate by 50 bps in March, which is supported by the comments of Fed officials Bullard, Harker and Bostic. At the same time, the forecast of the number of key rate increases in 2022 has tightened: the probability of a sixfold increase is estimated at 31%. Fed officials said that the US economy has reached the level of maximum employment. As a consequence, the parameters and rates of tightening of the PREP will be determined only by macro data of inflation. Some strategists specializing in the foreign exchange market note that the dollar may strengthen against the background of rising real yields, offsetting some of the expected pressure.European central banks are also increasingly inclined to a "hawkish" approach. Thus, ECB Head Christine Lagarde stressed concern about inflation indicators, in connection with which the regulator may raise the key rate three times in 2022 starting in September, returning the deposit rate to zero for the first time since 2014. The Bank of England, in turn, for the first time since 2004, has consistently raised the rate by 25 bps, to 0.5%, and does not exclude further tightening of the monetary policy.Asian markets showed mixed dynamics. Tokyo's Nikkei fell 0.7%, China's CSI300 rose 1.54%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.03%. EuroStoxx 50 has been down 0.17% since the opening of trading.Risk appetite is uncertain. The yield of treasuries rose to 1.92%. Brent crude futures are trading at $92.5 per barrel. Gold is strengthening to $1,812 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4450-4500 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 declined to the 200-day moving average, in the area of which the nearest support for the broad market index is located. The RSI is hovering around the 50 point mark. The MACD indicator indicates a short-term recovery of the bulls' positions, but does not confirm a trend reversal.In sightOn February 8, the report for the fourth quarter will be presented by the European oil and gas giant BP (BP). We expect strong results due to higher prices for oil, gas and petroleum products. BP's revenue may grow by 78% YoY and 39% QoQ, to $53 billion, with an increase in net profit to $4 billion compared to $1.4 billion a year earlier. It is possible that the company will reduce its net debt by $1-2 billion, to less than $40 billion. Investors will focus on operational results (we expect a decline in production in 2022) and the margin of the refining segment due to the rise in gas and electricity prices in Europe. The execution of derivatives may have a negative impact on the company's financial results. In our opinion, BP shares are traded at fair value, therefore, in case of an increase in quotations against the background of reporting, we recommend fixing profits on these securities.Walt Disney (DIS) will release quarterly results on February 9. According to the consensus forecast, the issuer's revenue will recover from $16.45 billion to $20.3 billion, and EPS may amount to $0.73, although a lower value of the indicator due to increased content costs is not excluded. We recommend investors to focus on the segments of video streaming and amusement parks. It is expected that over the past quarter, the Disney+ service has increased its subscriber base from 118.1 million to 125 million. The driver of growth in streaming is the expected expansion in 42 new countries in the summer, which spurs the trajectory of expanding the user base. As a result, by the end of September, the number of subscribers of the Disney+ service may grow to 150-155 million, which corresponds to an increase of 32-37 million per year. The amusement park segment may become a beneficiary of the flow of consumer spending from the goods segment to the services segment. Comcast Corporation in its latest report has already reflected the fact that the attendance of theme parks exceeds expectations, and consumers tend to increase spending during visits. In general, we expect positive quarterly figures from Disney.On February 10, the report for October-December 2021 will be published by Twitter (TWTR). According to the consensus forecast, revenue will increase to $1.58 billion (+22.5% YoY) with a decrease in adjusted EPS from $0.38 to $0.34. Apple's amended privacy policy should have a less significant impact on Twitter compared to Facebook, since the microblogging service is monetized mainly through advertising aimed at promoting brands, and it is less sensitive to this factor compared to direct response advertising. We believe that after the first ever decline in Facebook's active audience, investors will focus on the dynamics of Twitter's audience, which previously grew at an unsatisfactory pace. Competition for users' attention among social networks is intensifying. The consensus forecast assumes an increase in Twitter's DAU to 218.5 million against 211 million in the last quarter. We believe that the actual expansion of the audience again may not meet expectations. We will also follow the comments of the new CEO of the company, Parag Agrawal, who can indicate the updated vectors of Twitter's ...

The market the day beforeOn January 28, trading on American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose by 2.43% to 4432 points, the Dow Jones added 1.652%, the Nasdaq rose by 3.13%. The best dynamics were demonstrated by companies from the IT (+4.33%) and real estate (+3.38%) sectors on the back of positive quarterly results, as well as telecoms (+2.92%). Energy companies were outsiders (-0.6%).Company newsVisa (V: +10.6%) reported better than expected for the fourth quarter, noting the steady dynamics of international travel and e-commerce destinations, as well as only a slight negative impact on business due to the active spread of the omicron strain.Apple's report (AAPL: +7%) exceeded consensus expectations. There is a positive trend in the segment of phones and services against the background of less pressure from supply chains than previously predicted.Chevron's financial results (CVX: - 3.5%) for the 4th quarter of 2021 fell short of market-wide forecasts due to weak indicators of the international direction and uncertain guidance for 2022.ExpectationsThe attention of market participants is switching from assessing the strengthening of the "hawkish" mood of the Fed to the current reporting season. According to FactSet, just over a third of the S&P 500 companies have already reported results for the 4th quarter of 2021: 77% of the reported issuers exceeded the consensus forecast for EPS, which is below the average for the last four quarters (84%), but generally corresponds to the value for five years. On average, companies beat profit expectations by 4.1%, which is also significantly lower than the corresponding indicator for the last four quarters (15.8%). Although such results did not come as a big surprise to the market due to the effect of a low base in 2020, more and more analysts mention that the peak of profit and profitability growth has been passed. According to management comments, the strong demand observed in Q4 in many industries is offset by pressure from supply chains and rising purchase prices, which is expected to persist over the next few quarters. The companies also predict an increase in costs, some of which are associated with a shortage of labor, which, in turn, is largely due to the active spread of the omicron strain.Stock exchanges in Southeast Asia ended trading in the black. Tokyo's Nikkei index rose 1.07%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.07%. Chinese markets are closed due to the national holiday. EuroStoxx 50 has been growing by 0.99% since the opening of trading.Risk appetite is uncertain. The yield of treasuries dropped to 1.78%. Brent crude futures are trading at $89 per barrel. The price of gold is $1,790 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4400-4450 points.MacrostatisticsThe Chicago PMI index for January will be published today. The indicator is expected to decline to 59.5 points compared to 64.3 in December, which, however, will continue to indicate an increase in business activity.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 remains below the 200-day moving average and shows high volatility. Probably, in the coming days, the index will test this level, the breaking of which up will serve as a signal for a reversal. The RSI returned from the oversold zone, rising to 40 points, which indicates a weakening of the "bearish" trend. The MACD indicator also indicates the possible completion of the downward movement, but there is no signal for a reversal yet. The nearest support is still in the area of 4,300 points.In sightOn February 1, the report for the fourth quarter will be presented by the largest integrated oil and gas company ExxonMobil (XOM). We expect strong results from the issuer due to the increase in prices for oil, gas and petroleum products. Revenue is expected to increase to $85 billion (+83% YoY, +15% QoQ) with an increase in adjusted net profit by 65 times in annual terms, to $1.94 per share (+23% QoQ). In addition, the company is likely to continue to reduce its debt burden: net debt may decrease by $ 4-5 billion. The focus of investors' attention will be on forecasts of operating results, the dynamics of expenses against the background of high inflation, as well as the results of the petrochemical segment, where prices declined after the peak values of the third quarter. In our opinion, the company's shares are trading above fair value, so positive reporting can be considered as a signal for profit-taking on XOM securities.Also, on February 1, the operator of the largest electronic payment system PayPal (PYPL) will report for the 4th quarter of 2021. According to FactSet estimates, the issuer will increase net revenue and EPS by 12.7% YoY and 3.7% YoY, to $6.89 billion and $1.12, respectively. As for other companies in the industry, the main driver of PYPL revenue growth is the volume of consumer spending. Taking into account the high activity of consumers during the winter holidays, the company can increase the amount of processed transactions by 24-30% YoY, up to $340 billion. The number of new active accounts for the quarter may reach 14 million, which will increase the total base to 430 million, including due to the recent acquisition of fintech Paidy. Over the past six months, PYPL shares have lost 45.81% due to a slowdown in the growth rate of the issuer's income in 2021 and sales in shares of technology companies "growth". A positive signal for PYPL quotes may be an increase in revenue compared to the 3rd quarter. The new partnership with Amazon came into effect earlier this year, but it is not expected to have a significant impact on PayPal's financial results, as this only compensates for the termination of business relations with eBay.On February 2, quarterly results of Meta Platforms Corporation (FB), formerly known as Facebook, are expected. This is a very important report for the company, as it will reveal for the first time the financial results of the Facebook Reality Labs division (revenue and operating loss), which, in our opinion, may lead to an increase in FB quotes, as investors will get an idea of the actual marginality of the main line of business related to online advertising revenue. According to consensus forecasts, the consolidated revenue of the corporation will show an increase of 19% YoY, to a new historical maximum of $33.4 billion. EPS on an annualized basis will not change much at the same time. Investors are also waiting for an increase in the active daily audience of FB by about 200 million users, up to 1.95 billion. According to FactSet, the upcoming options suggest volatility in the range of 3-4% of the current price. We will be waiting for Meta management's comments on the impact of changes to the privacy policy in the iOS operating system on advertising revenue. This will help you understand what quarterly results can be expected from the social networks Twitter (TWTR) and Snapchat ...